Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Coupled models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The Earth has humans, so why don’t our climate models?

While climate models have rapidly advanced in sophistication over recent decades, they lack dynamic representation of human behavior and social systems despite strong feedbacks between social processes and climate. The impacts of climate change alter perceptions of risk and emissions behavior that, in turn, influence the rate and magnitude of climate change. Addressing this deficiency in climate models requires a substantial interdisciplinary effort to couple models of climate and human behavior. We suggest a multi-model approach that considers a range of theories and implementations of human behavior and social systems, similar to the multi-model approach that has been used to explore the physical climate system. In this work, we describe the importance of linking social factors with climate processes and identify four priorities essential to advancing the development of coupled social-climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Pacific Tropical Decadal Variability Challenge for Climate Models

Understanding and forecasting Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability (TPDV) strongly rely on climate model simulations. Using a Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) diagnostic approach, we reveal Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models have significant challenges in reproducing the spatial structure and dominant mechanisms of TPDV. Specifically, while the models' ensemble mean pattern of TPDV resembles that of observations, the spread across models is very large and most models show significant differences from observations. In observations, removing the coupling between extratropics and tropics reduces TPDV by ~60%–70%, and removing the tropical thermocline variability makes the central tropical Pacific a key center of action for TPDV and El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. These characteristics are only confirmed in a subset of models. Differences between observations and simulations are outside the range of natural internal TPDV noise and pose important questions regarding our ability to model the impacts of natural internal low-frequency variability superimposed on long-term climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Disentangling the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) V2 – a case study in the Pantanal region

Abstract. Streamflow variability plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics and sustainability of Earth's ecosystems, which can be simulated and projected by a river routing model coupled with a land surface model. However, the simulation of streamflow at large scales is subject to considerable uncertainties, primarily arising from two related processes: runoff generation (hydrological process) and river routing (hydraulic process). While both processes have impacts on streamflow variability, previous studies only calibrated one of the two processes to reduce biases in the simulated streamflow. Calibration focusing only on one process can result in unrealistic parameter values to compensate for the bias resulting from the other process; thus other water-related variables remain poorly simulated. In this study, we performed several experiments with the land and river components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) over the Pantanal region to disentangle the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in coupled land–river simulations. Our results show that the generation of subsurface runoff is the most important factor for streamflow variability contributed by the runoff generation process, while floodplain storage effect and main-channel roughness have significant impacts on streamflow variability through the river routing process. We further propose a two-step procedure to robustly calibrate the two processes together. The impacts of runoff generation and river routing on streamflow are appropriately addressed with the two-step calibration, which may be adopted by developers of land surface and earth system models to improve the modeling of streamflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupled continuum and network model framework to study catalyst layers of polymer electrolyte fuel cells

The nanostructured thin film (NSTF) catalyst layers which have demonstrated high power densities, mass activities, and exceptional metal and support stability can have limited operational robustness due to their thin thickness and the hydrophilicity of the metal-coated nano whiskers. The dispersed nanostructured thin film (dNSTF) catalyst layers have been developed by dispersing the NSTF Pt whiskers with ionomer and carbon support to increase the thickness and hydrophobicity. Continuum and network models (NM) are coupled through boundary conditions to study the polymer electrolyte fuel cell with a dNSTF cathode catalyst layer. The coupled model combines the computational efficiency of the continuum model with the pore-scale information in the dNSTF cathode catalyst layer of the NM. It captures the special morphology of the partially ionomer/water covered cylindrical whiskers, as well as water percolation through the pore structures and their impact on the cell performance. Here we observe optimal ionomer coverage on whiskers to be 0.5, ionomer to carbon ratio to be 0.9 and higher whisker to carbon ratios to be desired.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Reliability Analysis using Generalized Multifidelity Modeling and Explainable Active Learning

To assess the reliability of critical technologies like nuclear plants and infrastructure systems and improve the robustness of design, engineers have to quantify the uncertainties surrounding the system behavior accurately. However, the complexity of the problem can make standard reliability analysis algorithms prohibitively expensive, primarily due to the high computational cost of estimating the system response at each iteration. This cost can be greatly reduced by using multi-fidelity modeling and machine learning to build a surrogate model to replace the expensive response function. We propose a general and robust method for building surrogates from multiple Low Fidelity (LF) models coupled with machine learning to retain accuracy. Our framework first constructs “Corrected Low Fidelity models” (CLFs) by coupling a High Fidelity (HF) model inferred Gaussian Process correction term with each of the LF models. It then uses the correction terms to assign model probabilities to each of these CLFs in an explainable way before using them to assemble the final surrogate. No assumptions are made about the type of the LF models or their correlation with the HF model. The proposed surrogate modeling framework is used within the subset simulation algorithm (a variance-reduced MCMC-based reliability analysis algorithm) for enhanced efficiency. Additionally, an active learning step is added to the algorithm to adaptively decide when the surrogate is not sufficiently accurate, at which point the HF model is called and used to refine the surrogate. Through a frame buckling example, our method is shown to be highly efficient at reducing the expensive HF model calls while accurately estimating the failure probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Larger Cloud Liquid Water Enhances Both Aerosol Indirect Forcing and Cloud Radiative Feedback in Two Earth System Models

Previous studies have noticed that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models with a stronger cooling from aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) also have an enhanced warming from positive cloud feedback, and these two opposing effects are counter-balanced in simulations of the historical period. However, reasons for this anti-correlation are less explored. In this study, we perturb the cloud ice microphysical processes to obtain cloud liquid of varying amounts in two Earth System Models (ESMs). We find that the model simulations with a larger liquid water path (LWP) tend to have a stronger cooling from ACI and a stronger positive cloud feedback. More liquid clouds in the mean-state present more opportunities for anthropogenic aerosol perturbations and also weaken the negative cloud feedback at middle to high latitudes. This work, from a cloud state perspective, emphasizes the influence of the mean-state LWP on effective radiative forcing due to ACI (ERF ACI ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Tropical Cyclone—Ocean Interactions in Future Changes in Hurricane Katrina

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and precipitation are projected to increase in the future. However, some projections are based on atmosphere‐only models in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed, whereas projections based on global atmosphere‐ocean coupled models can be subject to long‐term ocean biases. We investigated the role of TC‐ocean interactions in future changes in TC intensity and precipitation in Hurricane Katrina. We performed four‐member ensembles using convection‐permitting atmosphere‐only and atmosphere‐ocean regional models for the historical climate and four future climates. We found that although future TC intensity and precipitation increased regardless of ocean coupling, ocean coupling dampened the future minimum sea‐level pressure decrease by half and amplified future precipitation scaling. Compared to future changes in upper‐ocean temperature, changes in salinity contributed little to future changes in TC intensity. This study highlights the importance of considering TC‐ocean interactions to reduce uncertainty in the magnitude of future TC intensity and precipitation projections.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of precipitation indices in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models over Florida

Abstract The present work evaluates historical precipitation and its indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) against NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset over Florida. The models examined here are: (1) nested RCMs involved in the North American CORDEX (NA-CORDEX) program, (2) variable resolution Community Earth System Models (VR-CESM), (3) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models statistically downscaled using localized constructed analogs (LOCA) technique. To quantify observational uncertainty, three in situ-based (PRISM, Livneh, CPC) and three reanalysis (ERA5, MERRA2, NARR) datasets are also evaluated against the station data. The reanalyses and dynamically downscaled RCMs generally underestimate the magnitude of the monthly precipitation and the frequency of the extreme rainfall in summer. The models forced with CanESM2 miss the phase of the seasonality of extreme precipitation. All models and reanalyses severely underestimate both the mean and interannual variability of mean wet-day precipitation (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), and overestimate consecutive wet days (CWD). Metric analysis suggests large uncertainty across NA-CORDEX models. Both the LOCA and VR-CESM models perform better than the majority of models. Overall, RegCM4 and WRF models perform poorer than the median model performance. The performance uncertainty across models is comparable to that in the reanalyses. Specifically, NARR performs poorer than the median model performance in simulating the mean indices and MERRA2 performs worse than the majority of models in capturing the interannual variability of the indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Abstract The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Swelling and permeability effects during propellant cookoff

Large rocket motors may violently explode when exposed to accidental fires. Even hot metal fragments from a nearby accident may penetrate the propellant and ultimately cause thermal ignition. A mechanistic understanding of heated propellants leading to thermal runaway is a major unsolved problem. Here we show that thermal ignition in propellants can be predicted using a universal cookoff model coupled to a micromechanics pressurization model. Our model predicts the time to thermal ignition in cookoff experiments with variable headspace volumes. Furthermore, we found that experiments with headspace volumes are more prone to deformation which distorts pores and causes increased permeability when the propellant expands into this headspace. Delayed ignition with larger headspace volume correlates with lower headspace pressures during decomposition. We found that our predictions matched experimental measurements best when the initial propellant was impermeable to gas flow rather than being permeable. Similar behavior is expected with other energetic materials with rubbery binders. Our model is validated using data from a separate laboratory. We also present an uncertainty analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) of thermal ignition caused by a steel fragment embedded in the propellant.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Sources and Transport Processes During Extreme Ammonia Episodes in the U.S. Corn Belt

Abstract Atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ) is the primary form of reactive nitrogen (N r ) and a precursor of ammonium (NH 4 + ) aerosols. Ammonia has been linked to adverse impacts on human health, the loss of ecosystem biodiversity, and plays a key role in aerosol radiative forcing. The midwestern United States is the major NH 3 source in North America because of dense livestock operations and the high use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. Here, we combine tall‐tower (100 m) observations in Minnesota and Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) modeling to investigate high and low NH 3 emission episodes within the U.S. Corn Belt to improve our understanding of the distribution of emission sources and transport processes. We examined observations and performed model simulations for cases in February through November of 2017 and 2018. The results showed the following: (1) Peak emissions in November 2017 were enhanced by above‐normal air temperatures, implying a Q 10 (i.e., the change in NH 3 emissions for a temperature increase of 10°C) of 2.5 for emissions. (2) The intensive livestock emissions rom northern Iowa, approximately 400 km away from the tall tower, accounted for 17.6% of the abundance in tall‐tower NH 3 mixing ratios. (3) Ammonia mixing ratios in the innermost domain 3 frequently (i.e., 336 hr, 48% of November 2017) exceeded 5.3 ppb, an important air quality health standard. (4) In November 2017, simulated NH 3 net ecosystem exchange (the difference between NH 3 emissions and dry deposition) accounted for 60–65% of gross NH 3 emissions for agricultural areas and was 2.8–3.1 times the emissions of forested areas. (5) We estimated a mean annual NH 3 net ecosystem exchange of 1.60 ± 0.06 nmol · m −2 · s −1 for agricultural lands and −0.07 ± 0.02 nmol · m −2 · s −1 for forested lands. These results imply that future warmer fall temperatures will enhance agricultural NH 3 emissions, increase the frequency of dangerous NH 3 episodes, and enhance dry NH 3 deposition in adjacent forested lands.

Hu, Cheng↗
DOE OSTI2022

The DOE E3SM Model Version 2: Overview of the Physical Model and Initial Model Evaluation

Abstract This work documents version two of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SMv2 is a significant evolution from its predecessor E3SMv1, resulting in a model that is nearly twice as fast and with a simulated climate that is improved in many metrics. We describe the physical climate model in its lower horizontal resolution configuration consisting of 110 km atmosphere, 165 km land, 0.5° river routing model, and an ocean and sea ice with mesh spacing varying between 60 km in the mid‐latitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles. The model performance is evaluated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima simulations augmented with historical simulations as well as simulations to evaluate impacts of different forcing agents. The simulated climate has many realistic features of the climate system, with notable improvements in clouds and precipitation compared to E3SMv1. E3SMv1 suffered from an excessively high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. In E3SMv2, ECS is reduced to 4.0 K which is now within the plausible range based on a recent World Climate Research Program assessment. However, a number of important biases remain including a weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, deficiencies in the characteristics and spectral distribution of tropical atmospheric variability, and a significant underestimation of the observed warming in the second half of the historical period. An analysis of single‐forcing simulations indicates that correcting the historical temperature bias would require a substantial reduction in the magnitude of the aerosol‐related forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interannual fires as a source for subarctic summer decadal climate variability mediated by permafrost thawing

Climate model simulations run under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) use an inhomogeneous biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emission dataset, which exhibits pronounced interannual variability from 1997–2014 due to the infusion of satellite data. Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) with original and smoothed CMIP6 BBA forcings, we show that the CMIP6 data inhomogeneity causes spurious decadal subarctic land warming. During years with reduced aerosol concentrations, increased solar radiation can trigger abrupt subarctic permafrost thawing, increased soil water drainage, upper soil drying, and subsequent surface warming. This slow process, which is further amplified by nonlinear cloud-aerosol interactions, cannot be completely offset during years of increased aerosol fluxes, thereby reddening surface temperature spectra in response to large-amplitude interannual aerosol forcing. More generally, our CESM2 experiments identify a pathway for generating decadal variability in high latitudes, involving interannual shortwave forcing and slow nonlinear soil responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bimodality in simulated precipitation frequency distributions and its relationship with convective parameterizations

Abstract Bimodality in precipitation frequency distributions is often evident in atmospheric models, but rarely in observations. This study i) proposes a metric to objectively quantify the bimodality in precipitation distributions, ii) evaluates model simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5), phase 6 (CMIP6), and the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) project by comparing them to satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products, and iii) investigates possible origins of bimodal precipitation distributions. Our results reveal that about 83% (20 out of 24) of CMIP5 and 70% (21 out of 30) of CMIP6 models used in this study exhibit bimodal distributions. The few DYAMOND models that use a deep convective parameterization also show bimodal distributions, while most DYAMOND models do not. Predictably, the bimodality originates from the separation of precipitation process between resolved grid-scale and parameterized subgrid-scale. However, in a larger number of models bimodality arises from the parameterized subgrid-scale convective precipitation alone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

Jagermeyr, Jonas↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multilayer interface tracking model of pure tungsten oxidation

Here, we present a numerical model to predict oxide scale growth on tungsten surfaces under exposure to oxygen at high temperatures. The model captures the formation of four thermodynamically-compatible oxide sublayers, WO 2 , WO 2.72 , WO 2.9 , and WO 3 , on top of the metal substrate. Oxide layer growth is simulated by tracking the oxide/oxide and oxide/metal interfaces using a sharp-interface Stefan model coupled to diffusion kinetics. The model is parameterized using selected experimental measurements and electronic structure calculations of the diffusivities of all the oxide subphases involved. We simulate oxide growth at temperatures of 600°C and above, extracting the power law growth exponents in each case, which we find to deviate from classical parabolic growth in several cases. We conduct a comparison of the model predictions with an extensive experimental data set, with reasonable agreement at most temperatures. While many gaps in our understanding still exist, this work is a first attempt at embedding the thermodynamic and kinetic complexity of tungsten oxide growth into a comprehensive mesoscale kinetic model that attempts to capture the essential features of tungsten oxidation to fill existing knowledge gaps and guide and enhance future tungsten oxidation models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing W sources in the all-W wall, all-RF WEST tokamak environment

In this work, experimental data, together with interpretive modeling tools, are examined to study trends in the tungsten (W) source in the all-W environment of the WEST tokamak, both from the divertor and from the main chamber. In particular, a poloidal limiter protecting an ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) antenna is used as proxy for main chamber sourcing. The key study is carried out by stepping up lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) power, as the only auxiliary power source. Limiter and divertor W sources exhibit a qualitatively similar proportionality to the total power crossing the separatrix, P SEP , although the main chamber source remains substantially lower than the divertor source, for the range of P SEP accessible in the experiments. Intepretive modeling of the limiter source is carried out with a particle-in-cell (PIC) sheath model coupled to a surface sputtering model. Oxygen is used as a proxy for all light impurity species allowing for characterization of the critical W erosion regions. To get a good quantitative match to the data, it is necessary to assume that the oxygen arrives at the surface mostly at high ionization stages (4+ and above). A separate simulation with SOLEDGE-EIRENE, constrained to measured upstream scrape-off-layer plasma profiles, gives oxygen fractional abundances that are compatible with the PIC simulation result. This is understood to arise from transport processes that dominate over recombination. Substituting the LHCD by ICRH, in an equivalent experiment, the local W source exhibits a 3× enhancement. This can be matched by the simulation, by assuming local RF electric field rectification, based on ~100 eV peak-to-peak, near-antennna electric field. This work has highlighted the particular importance of understanding the ion charge state balance of light impurities as these are most likely the dominant sputtering species in fusion devices with high-Z walls.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗