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At least 271 records · Page 15

A Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization Approach Using the Weighted Tchebycheff Method

Abstract Bayesian optimization (BO) is a low-cost global optimization tool for expensive black-box objective functions, where we learn from prior evaluated designs, update a posterior surrogate Gaussian process model, and select new designs for future evaluation using an acquisition function. This research focuses upon developing a BO model with multiple black-box objective functions. In the standard multi-objective (MO) optimization problem, the weighted Tchebycheff method is efficiently used to find both convex and non-convex Pareto frontiers. This approach requires knowledge of utopia values before we start optimization. However, in the BO framework, since the functions are expensive to evaluate, it is very expensive to obtain the utopia values as a prior knowledge. Therefore, in this paper, we develop a MO-BO framework where we calibrate with multiple linear regression (MLR) models to estimate the utopia value for each objective as a function of design input variables; the models are updated iteratively with sampled training data from the proposed MO-BO. These iteratively estimated mean utopia values are used to formulate the weighted Tchebycheff MO acquisition function. The proposed approach is implemented in two numerical test examples and one engineering design problem of optimizing thin tube geometries under constant loading of temperature and pressure, with minimizing the risk of creep-fatigue failure and design cost, along with risk-based and manufacturing constraints. Finally, the model accuracy with frequentist, Bayesian and without MLR-based calibration are compared to true Pareto solutions.

Engineering↗

Pilot guidance and display considerations for energy efficient flight profiles

Two computer programs are applied to energy efficient flight operation in order to minimize aircraft operating costs. One algorithm (OPTIM) computes vertical flight profiles which optimize direct operating costs, including fuel and time costs, for an aircraft flying over a fixed range and with a fixed time-of-arrival. The second program (TRAGEN) simulates an aircraft steered to fly along a specified vertical flight trajectory, in order to examine fuel and cost penalties involved in flying nonoptimal trajectories. Constraints such as air traffic control procedures, and atmospheric and weight conditions are considered and supported by graphs and diagrams. The use of the algorithms as preflight planning tools is discussed, emphasizing OPTIM's future application for on-board energy management. Finally, research questions concerning pilot guidance and display considerations for advanced energy/flight management systems are addressed.

Samms, K. H.↗

HURON (HUman and Robotic Optimization Network) Multi-Agent Temporal Activity Planner/Scheduler

HURON solves the problem of how to optimize a plan and schedule for assigning multiple agents to a temporal sequence of actions (e.g., science tasks). Developed as a generic planning and scheduling tool, HURON has been used to optimize space mission surface operations. The tool has also been used to analyze lunar architectures for a variety of surface operational scenarios in order to maximize return on investment and productivity. These scenarios include numerous science activities performed by a diverse set of agents: humans, teleoperated rovers, and autonomous rovers. Once given a set of agents, activities, resources, resource constraints, temporal constraints, and de pendencies, HURON computes an optimal schedule that meets a specified goal (e.g., maximum productivity or minimum time), subject to the constraints. HURON performs planning and scheduling optimization as a graph search in state-space with forward progression. Each node in the graph contains a state instance. Starting with the initial node, a graph is automatically constructed with new successive nodes of each new state to explore. The optimization uses a set of pre-conditions and post-conditions to create the children states. The Python language was adopted to not only enable more agile development, but to also allow the domain experts to easily define their optimization models. A graphical user interface was also developed to facilitate real-time search information feedback and interaction by the operator in the search optimization process. The HURON package has many potential uses in the fields of Operations Research and Management Science where this technology applies to many commercial domains requiring optimization to reduce costs. For example, optimizing a fleet of transportation truck routes, aircraft flight scheduling, and other route-planning scenarios involving multiple agent task optimization would all benefit by using HURON.

Hua, Hook↗

An Approach to Reasoning Service Migration in Data and Reasoning Fabric (DRF) Implementation

In this paper we consider service placement problem for Data and Reasoning Fabric (DRF) enabled airspace operations assuming a fixed cloud/edge infrastructure with allocated computing, storage and power resources, where cloud/edge servers, and communication stations are in a wired connected network, while vehicles use a wireless network for communication. The objective is to automatically select the best location for the requested service execution, which achieves minimum cost while satisfying the user quality of service (QoS) and available resources constraints. To this end, we estimate for each potential location the response time, consumed energy and total cost; formulate an optimization problem for cost minimization given the users QoS constraints and network infrastructure limitations; and solve it using nonlinear programming tools. The approach is applied to trajectory re-planning use case to handle a no-fly zone contingency in real time.

Vahram Stepanyan↗

Electric Propulsion System Selection Process for Interplanetary Missions

The disparate design problems of selecting an electric propulsion system, launch vehicle, and flight time all have a significant impact on the cost and robustness of a mission. The effects of these system choices combine into a single optimization of the total mission cost, where the design constraint is a required spacecraft neutral (non-electric propulsion) mass. Cost-optimal systems are designed for a range of mass margins to examine how the optimal design varies with mass growth. The resulting cost-optimal designs are compared with results generated via mass optimization methods. Additional optimizations with continuous system parameters address the impact on mission cost due to discrete sets of launch vehicle, power, and specific impulse. The examined mission set comprises a near-Earth asteroid sample return, multiple main belt asteroid rendezvous, comet rendezvous, comet sample return, and a mission to Saturn.

Landau, Damon↗

Optimization performance, fidelity, and cost: SIAM VQE

This dataset contains files storing results from classically-simulated quantum subroutines within a dynamical mean-field theory workflow, and jupyter notebooks processing the data in these files to generate plots. The files store: (1) Results from variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) simulations searching for optimal parameters allowing parametrized quantum circuits to prepare approximations to ground states of different Anderson impurity models (AIMs) (2) Results from simulations of a quantum Lanczos algorithm (QLA) estimating the Lanczos coefficients defining the continued-fraction representation of an (AIM) Green’s function Description: Any file named vqe_gs_results* stores approximations to the ground state and energy of a given AIM estimated using three different methods: (1) Numerical diagonalization (2) Ideal VQE simulation (3) VQE simulation with sampling noise For each VQE simulations metadata about the optimization (optimization results plus number of quantum circuits that would have been executed on real hardware) is also stored. Any file named qla_dos_results* estimations for the Lanczos coefficients defining the Green’s function of an AIM. The stored estimations are achieved using different methods: (1) Numerical Lanczos algorithm from initial states obtained from numerical diagonalization (2) Simulated quantum Lanczos algorithm from initial states prepared from parametrized quantum circuits yielded by corresponding ideal and noisy VQE subroutines. The dataset is used and described in M. Karabin et al., "Quantum solver for single-impurity Anderson models with particle-hole symmetry", Phys. Rev. Research 8, 033066 (2026). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/7ys3-tl4l

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1): A New Decision Support Tool for Solar Industrial Process Heat Applications

Solar thermal technologies are a promising technology to supply low-cost thermal energy to industrial processes, but there are often significant barriers to entry to industrial owners considering these technologies for their energy demands. To overcome this barrier and convey economic value to customers, NREL and Sandia National Laboratories developed Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1), a new web-based decision support tool for solar industrial process heat systems. At SolarPACES 2024, the STEP 1 tool was still under development; progress, methodologies, and a preliminary case study was presented. With the STEP 1 tool launch in May 2025, in this work, the initial version of the full public tool will be presented with demonstrations of its capabilities using a few case studies. First, the user's process heat needs such as location, process media (e.g., steam, air), process temperature, land availability, electricity and fuel costs, among other parameters. STEP 1 features a mapping interface that allows users to draw land and roof boundaries. The process media and temperature inform technology selection criteria modules that determine the appropriate solar thermal collection technologies, as well as congruent heat transfer media (e.g., hot water, oil, salt). Once the solar thermal technology selected, its nominal thermal production for the given site is characterized using NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). Then, a modified version of NREL's REopt optimal sizing and dispatch optimization tool determines cost-optimal sizing. Within minutes, the user receives the results of the technoeconomics analysis, including the size and performance of the cost-optimal solar-plus-storage system. The cost of the system is compared to business-as-usual (e.g., an existing, standalone natural gas boiler). Users can download key results to store for sensitivity analyses. Examples of flat plate collector, parabolic trough, and molten salt tower applications with and without PV hybridization for different industrial facility types are presented in this work. The STEP 1 tool aims to reduce barriers to the adoption of solar heating solutions stemming from a lack of familiarity and technical background with solar system design options and costs among industry stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Low cost Ku-band earth terminals for voice/data/facsimile

A Ku-band satellite earth terminal capable of providing two way voice/facsimile teleconferencing, 128 Kbps data, telephone, and high-speed imagery services is proposed. Optimized terminal cost and configuration are presented as a function of FDMA and TDMA approaches to multiple access. The entire terminal from the antenna to microphones, speakers and facsimile equipment is considered. Component cost versus performance has been projected as a function of size of the procurement and predicted hardware innovations and production techniques through 1985. The lowest cost combinations of components has been determined in a computer optimization algorithm. The system requirements including terminal EIRP and G/T, satellite size, power per spacecraft transponder, satellite antenna characteristics, and link propagation outage were selected using a computerized system cost/performance optimization algorithm. System cost and terminal cost and performance requirements are presented as a function of the size of a nationwide U.S. network. Service costs are compared with typical conference travel costs to show the viability of the proposed terminal.

Kelley, R. L.↗

The requirement for designing analyzable space deployable structures

The applied technology satellite parabolic reflector subsystem is one of the first systems designed for space environment with limited terrestrial environmental ability. As a result, the complete performance of the system could not be demonstrated in a terrestrial environment without unacceptable design compromises. This problem was circumvented by developing a test philosophy which relied heavily on analysis to qualify and accept the flight hardware. The test program was successfully concluded and an optimized, low cost structure resulted. It is felt that this test and analysis philosophy can be applied to future space systems, resulting in substantial cost and schedule savings and a mission optimized system.

Woods, A. A., Jr.↗

Characteristic Elastic Systems of Time-Limited Optimal Maneuvers

Optimizing an elastic system and its active control is discussed. Maneuvers from an initial state to a final state in a finite time interval are considered. An active generalized control force that accomplishes the desired maneuver of a prespecified system is optimal if it minimizes a given quadratic cost function. By also varying a set of design parameters, the elastic system can be determined so as to further minimize the cost function. Here, the elastic system that minimizes the actual control cost is compared with the system that minimizes the ratio of actual cost to the cost of optimally maneuvering a rigid system of the same inertial properties. It is shown that an elastic system corresponding to an extremum of the ratio is actually a characteristic of the time-limited maneuver. Because both the spatial domain and the time interval are fixed, a characteristic elastic system is tuned to the specified temporal boundary conditions. The implication for rest-to-rest, spinup, and spin reversal maneuvers of spacecraft is that the optimal control for a characteristic elastic spacecraft is identical to the optimal control for the same spacecraft as if it were rigid.

Hale, A. L.↗

Systems engineering and integration: Cost estimation and benefits analysis

Space Transportation Avionics hardware and software cost has traditionally been estimated in Phase A and B using cost techniques which predict cost as a function of various cost predictive variables such as weight, lines of code, functions to be performed, quantities of test hardware, quantities of flight hardware, design and development heritage, complexity, etc. The output of such analyses has been life cycle costs, economic benefits and related data. The major objectives of Cost Estimation and Benefits analysis are twofold: (1) to play a role in the evaluation of potential new space transportation avionics technologies, and (2) to benefit from emerging technological innovations. Both aspects of cost estimation and technology are discussed here. The role of cost analysis in the evaluation of potential technologies should be one of offering additional quantitative and qualitative information to aid decision-making. The cost analyses process needs to be fully integrated into the design process in such a way that cost trades, optimizations and sensitivities are understood. Current hardware cost models tend to primarily use weights, functional specifications, quantities, design heritage and complexity as metrics to predict cost. Software models mostly use functionality, volume of code, heritage and complexity as cost descriptive variables. Basic research needs to be initiated to develop metrics more responsive to the trades which are required for future launch vehicle avionics systems. These would include cost estimating capabilities that are sensitive to technological innovations such as improved materials and fabrication processes, computer aided design and manufacturing, self checkout and many others. In addition to basic cost estimating improvements, the process must be sensitive to the fact that no cost estimate can be quoted without also quoting a confidence associated with the estimate. In order to achieve this, better cost risk evaluation techniques are needed as well as improved usage of risk data by decision-makers. More and better ways to display and communicate cost and cost risk to management are required.

Dean, ED↗

Costs of Limiting Route Optimization to Published Waypoints in the Traffic Aware Planner

The Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) is an airborne advisory tool that generates optimized, traffic-avoiding routes to support the aircraft crew in making strategic reroute requests to Air Traffic Control (ATC). TAP is derived from a research-prototype self-separation tool, the Autonomous Operations Planner (AOP), in which optimized route modifications that avoid conflicts with traffic and weather, using waypoints at explicit latitudes and longitudes (a technique supported by self-separation concepts), are generated by maneuver patterns applied to the existing route. For use in current-day operations in which trajectory changes must be requested from ATC via voice communication, TAP produces optimized routes described by advisories that use only published waypoints prior to a reconnection waypoint on the existing route. We describe how the relevant algorithms of AOP have been modified to implement this requirement. The modifications include techniques for finding appropriate published waypoints in a maneuver pattern and a method for combining the genetic algorithm of AOP with an exhaustive search of certain types of advisory. We demonstrate methods to investigate the increased computation required by these techniques and to estimate other costs (measured in terms such as time to destination and fuel burned) that may be incurred when only published waypoints are used.

TASAR↗

Optimal regulation in systems with stochastic time sampling

An optimal control theory that accounts for stochastic variable time sampling in a distributed microprocessor based flight control system is presented. The theory is developed by using a linear process model for the airplane dynamics and the information distribution process is modeled as a variable time increment process where, at the time that information is supplied to the control effectors, the control effectors know the time of the next information update only in a stochastic sense. An optimal control problem is formulated and solved for the control law that minimizes the expected value of a quadratic cost function. The optimal cost obtained with a variable time increment Markov information update process where the control effectors know only the past information update intervals and the Markov transition mechanism is almost identical to that obtained with a known and uniform information update interval.

Montgomery, R. C.↗

Optimal Design Approaches for Cost-Effective Manufacturing & Deployment of Chemical Process Families with Economies of Numbers

This work builds on our optimization formulation for process family design and extends it to explicitly include the benefits of economies of numbers. Economies of numbers (sometimes referred to as economies of learning) is a well-documented cost saving phenomenon. It characterizes the manufacturing cost savings due to standardization; in particular, it is capturing the correlation between cost reduction and the number of times a particular product has been manufactured. Following an approach similar to that in Gazzaneo et al. (2022), we develop a costing expression that captures material costs and manufacturing costs as a function of the number of unit modules produced. If the platform has a small number of unit module designs, we will be manufacturing a large number of each of these designs and gaining increased benefits from economies of numbers. However, increasing the number of unit module designs in the platform gives each process variant more choices to consider (at the cost of reducing economies of numbers). The optimization formulation in Stinchfield et al. (2023) pre-specified the number of unit module designs to be included in the platform. Here, by including the economies of numbers explicitly, we allow the mathematical programming formulation to determine the optimal number of unit module designs to include in the platform. We demonstrate this approach on multiple case studies, including MEA-based carbon capture and water desalination.

Stinchfield, Georgia↗

Mining Nontraditional Water Sources for a Distributed Hydrogen Economy

Securing decarbonized economies for energy and commodities will require abundant and widely available green H 2 . Ubiquitous wastewaters and nontraditional water sources could potentially feed water electrolyzers to produce this green hydrogen without competing with drinking water sources. Herein, we show that the energy and costs of treating nontraditional water sources such as municipal wastewater, industrial and resource extraction wastewater, and seawater are negligible with respect to those for water electrolysis. We also illustrate that the potential hydrogen energy that could be mined from these sources is vast. Based on these findings, we evaluate the implications of small-scale, distributed water electrolysis using disperse nontraditional water sources. Techno-economic analysis and life cycle analysis reveal that the significant contribution of H 2 transportation to costs and CO 2 emissions results in an optimal levelized cost of hydrogen at small- to moderate-scale water electrolyzer size. The implications of utilizing nontraditional water sources and decentralized or stranded renewable energy for distributed water electrolysis are highlighted for several hydrogen energy storage and chemical feedstock applications. Finally, we discuss challenges and opportunities for mining H 2 from nontraditional water sources to achieve resilient and sustainable economies for water and energy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fleet-wide Electrification Impacts Assessment for the Valley Transportation Authority

This report explores the long-term electrification opportunities for the Valley Transit Authority’s (VTA) transit bus fleet. The potential for transit bus electrification at VTA as well as the economic impacts of partial and complete electrification are explored. We use the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization model to determine the optimal charging, operation and lowest capital and operating cost solution to achieve different levels of electrification to meet their existing routes. This study finds that, relying on only depot charging, around 70% of the daily trips by VTA’s transit bus fleet can be replaced with battery electric buses (BEBs) today. The benefits and drawbacks of five methods for improving the electrification potential beyond that achievable with only depot charging are discussed including (1) increase charger power, (2) purchase of larger vehicle batteries, (3) en-route charging, (4) purchasing additional buses and swapping them to enable the existing routes/blocks1 to be met, and (5) route/block redesign. A strategy is developed to enable full fleet electrification by increasing charger power or allowing intraday charging as a proxy for the options mentioned above. This method allows us to develop an understanding of the impacts and trade-offs of full fleet electrification. Two charging strategies are examined. Immediate charging, when the bus is charged as soon as it arrives at a depot or en-route charging station, and smart charging, which uses a controller to determine the best times to charge to achieve the lowest charging cost, while maintaining the same trip schedules. Smart charging is effective at reducing the peak power consumption, which can be reduced by between 31% and 65% compared to immediate charging. This translates directly to lower electricity demand charges and lower costs for possible distribution system upgrades. The total lifetime net present value (NPV) costs for different scenarios are presented in Figure ES-1. Scenarios are separated into three sections. The first stacked bar on the left is the base case (business-as-usual) where all buses are diesel hybrids, the next four bars include partial and full fleet electrification utilizing only immediate charging, and the last four bars include partial and full fleet electrification utilizing smart charging. The results show that smart charging scenarios are within ±4% of the lifetime NPV cost of the diesel-hybrid only (business-as-usual) scenario. The scenarios with full fleet electrification (i.e., including intraday charging) are 4% lower cost and those with partial fleet electrification (i.e., without intraday charging) are 2%–3% higher. However, it is important to note that the intraday charging scenarios do not include any additional costs for the equipment necessary to achieve intraday charging (e.g., additional chargers, larger batteries, new route design). Additionally, it is worth noting that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit received for implementing electric buses is essential to achieving these results.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗