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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Security of DERs and Grid Edge Technologies [Slides]

Distributed energy resources (DERs) offer significant value for incorporating diverse generation technologies and improving reliability. They also present a new set of cybersecurity challenges. The move of generation to the grid edge can also mean more distributed control systems and expanded communication networks, resulting in an increase in attack surface. This presentation will discuss definitions and essential terms related to DERs; developments and deployment trends for DERs; recent cyber attacks on operational technology and industrial systems; cyber risk arising from distributed grid resources; and ways in which standards may help mitigate some of these risks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2011

Performance Comparison of Wireless Sensor Network Standard Protocols in an Aerospace Environment: ISA100.11a and ZigBee

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) can provide a substantial benefit in spacecraft systems, reducing launch weight and providing unprecedented flexibility by allowing instrumentation capabilities to grow and change over time. Achieving data transport reliability on par with that of wired systems, however, can prove extremely challenging in practice. Fortunately, much progress has been made in developing standard WSN radio protocols for applications from non-critical home automation to mission-critical industrial process control. The relative performances of candidate protocols must be compared in representative aerospace environments, however, to determine their suitability for spaceflight applications. In this paper, we will present the results of a rigorous laboratory analysis of the performance of two standards-based, low power, low data rate WSN protocols: ZigBee Pro and ISA100.11a. Both are based on IEEE 802.15.4 and augment that standard's specifications to build complete, multi-hop networking stacks. ZigBee Pro targets primarily the home and office automation markets, providing an ad-hoc protocol that is computationally lightweight and easy to implement in inexpensive system-on-a-chip components. As a result of this simplicity, however, ZigBee Pro can be susceptible to radio frequency (RF) interference. ISA100.11a, on the other hand, targets the industrial process control market, providing a robust, centrally-managed protocol capable of tolerating a significant amount of RF interference. To achieve these gains, a coordinated channel hopping mechanism is employed, which entails a greater computational complexity than ZigBee and requires more sophisticated and costly hardware. To guide future aerospace deployments, we must understand how well these standards relatively perform in analog environments under expected operating conditions. Specifically, we are interested in evaluating goodput -- application level throughput -- in a representative crewed environment in the presence of varying levels of 802.11g Wi-Fi traffic. To do so, we use the NASA Johnson Space Center Wireless Habitat Testbed (WHT), a metallic, habitation-sized module designed for co-existence testing of wireless systems. In its quiescent state, the sealed WHT provides an RF-quiet environment to which we can selectively add interfering systems; it also provides a realistic level of multi-path self-interference for systems under investigation. In our test, we deploy two representative five node networks, configured in a star topology with all nodes reporting directly to a WSN gateway. Each ZigBee network WSN node is built using a Texas Instruments (TI) CC2530 system-on-a-chip radio running TI's ZigBee Pro Z-stack. Each ISA100.11a network node is built using a Nivis VersaNode 210 system-on-a-chip radio. In both cases, radios interface with TI MSP430-F5438 microcontroller implementing a common test application. Interference is provided by a D-link 802.11g Wi-Fi router transporting traffic generated using the Iperf network testing tool. For the single-channel ZigBee network, effects of both direct and indirect Wi-Fi interference are evaluated. For the channel-hopping ISA100.11a network, effects of interference from multiple Wi-Fi routers configured in non-overlapping 802.11g channels are evaluated. Our results show that, in general, the more lightweight ZigBee network performs well at low interference levels, but performance degrades as interference increases. Conversely, the more complex and costly ISA100.11a network continues to perform well as Wi-Fi interference levels increase.

Wagner, Raymond S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

SQuaD: Smart Quantum Detection for Photon Recognition and Dark Count Elimination

Quantum detectors of single photons are an essential component for quantum information processing across computing, communication and networking. Today's quantum detection system, which consists of single photon detectors, timing electronics, control and data processing software, is primarily used for counting the number of single photon detection events. However, it is largely incapable of extracting other rich physical characteristics of the detected photons, such as their wavelengths, polarization states, photon numbers, or temporal waveforms. This work, for the first time, demonstrates a smart quantum detection system, SQuaD, which integrates a field programmable gate array (FPGA) with a neural network model, and is designed to recognize the features of photons and to eliminate detector dark-count. The SQuaD is a fully integrated quantum system with high timing-resolution data acquisition, onboard multi-scale data analysis, intelligent feature recognition and extraction, and feedback-driven system control. Our \name experimentally demonstrates 1) reliable photon counting on par with the state-of-the art commercial systems; 2) high-throughput data processing for each individual detection events; 3) efficient dark count recognition and elimination; 4) up to 100% accurate feature recognition of photon wavelength and polarization. Additionally, we deploy the SQuaD to an atomic (erbium ion) photon emitter source to realize noise-free control and readout of a spin qubit in the telecom band, enabling critical advances in quantum networks and distributed quantum information processing.

Linne, Karl C. [U. Chicago (main)] (ORCID:00090009↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generalized Quasi-Static Mooring System Modeling with Analytic Jacobians

This paper presents a generalized and efficient method for quasi-static analysis of mooring systems, including complex scenarios such as when shared mooring lines interconnect multiple floating wind or wave energy devices. While quasi-static mooring models are well established, most published formulations are focused on specific applications, and no publicly available implementations provide efficient handling of large mooring system networks. The present formulation addresses these gaps by: (1) formulating solutions for edge cases not typically supported by quasi-static models; (2) creating a fully generalized model structure such that any combination of mooring lines, point masses, and floating bodies can be assembled; and (3) deriving analytic expressions for the system Jacobians (stiffness matrices) so that systems with many degrees of freedom can be solved efficiently. These techniques form the theory basis of MoorPy, an open-source mooring analysis library. The model is demonstrated on nine scenarios of increasing complexity with features of interest for offshore renewable energy applications. When compared with steady-state results from a lumped-mass dynamic model, the results show that the quasi-static formulation accurately calculates profiles and tensions and that its analytic approach provides more efficient and reliable computation of system stiffness matrices than finite-differencing methods. These results verify the accuracy of the MoorPy model.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS1989

Automation of orbit determination functions for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-supported satellite missions

The Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) provides spacecraft trajectory determination for a wide variety of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-supported satellite missions, using the Tracking Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) and Ground Spaceflight and Tracking Data Network (GSTDN). To take advantage of computerized decision making processes that can be used in spacecraft navigation, the Orbit Determination Automation System (ODAS) was designed, developed, and implemented as a prototype system to automate orbit determination (OD) and orbit quality assurance (QA) functions performed by orbit operations. Based on a machine-resident generic schedule and predetermined mission-dependent QA criteria, ODAS autonomously activates an interface with the existing trajectory determination system using a batch least-squares differential correction algorithm to perform the basic OD functions. The computational parameters determined during the OD are processed to make computerized decisions regarding QA, and a controlled recovery process isactivated when the criteria are not satisfied. The complete cycle is autonomous and continuous. ODAS was extensively tested for performance under conditions resembling actual operational conditions and found to be effective and reliable for extended autonomous OD. Details of the system structure and function are discussed, and test results are presented.

Mardirossian, H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Automation of orbit determination functions for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-supported satellite missions

The Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) provides spacecraft trajectory determination for a wide variety of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-supported satellite missions, using the Tracking Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) and Ground Spaceflight and Tracking Data Network (GSTDN). To take advantage of computerized decision making processes that can be used in spacecraft navigation, the Orbit Determination Automation System (ODAS) was designed, developed, and implemented as a prototype system to automate orbit determination (OD) and orbit quality assurance (QA) functions performed by orbit operations. Based on a machine-resident generic schedule and predetermined mission-dependent QA criteria, ODAS autonomously activates an interface with the existing trajectory determination system using a batch least-squares differential correction algorithm to perform the basic OD functions. The computational parameters determined during the OD are processed to make computerized decisions regarding QA, and a controlled recovery process is activated when the criteria are not satisfied. The complete cycle is autonomous and continuous. ODAS was extensively tested for performance under conditions resembling actual operational conditions and found to be effective and reliable for extended autonomous OD. Details of the system structure and function are discussed, and test results are presented.

Mardirossian, H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Advanced information processing system: Authentication protocols for network communication

In safety critical I/O and intercomputer communication networks, reliable message transmission is an important concern. Difficulties of communication and fault identification in networks arise primarily because the sender of a transmission cannot be identified with certainty, an intermediate node can corrupt a message without certainty of detection, and a babbling node cannot be identified and silenced without lengthy diagnosis and reconfiguration . Authentication protocols use digital signature techniques to verify the authenticity of messages with high probability. Such protocols appear to provide an efficient solution to many of these problems. The objective of this program is to develop, demonstrate, and evaluate intercomputer communication architectures which employ authentication. As a context for the evaluation, the authentication protocol-based communication concept was demonstrated under this program by hosting a real-time flight critical guidance, navigation and control algorithm on a distributed, heterogeneous, mixed redundancy system of workstations and embedded fault-tolerant computers.

Harper, Richard E.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Monitoring a Complex Physical System using a Hybrid Dynamic Bayes Net

The Reverse Water Gas Shift system (RWGS) is a complex physical system designed to produce oxygen from the carbon dioxide atmosphere on Mars. If sent to Mars, it would operate without human supervision, thus requiring a reliable automated system for monitoring and control. The RWGS presents many challenges typical of real-world systems, including: noisy and biased sensors, nonlinear behavior, effects that are manifested over different time granularities, and unobservability of many important quantities. In this paper we model the RWGS using a hybrid (discrete/continuous) Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN), where the state at each time slice contains 33 discrete and 184 continuous variables. We show how the system state can be tracked using probabilistic inference over the model. We discuss how to deal with the various challenges presented by the RWGS, providing a suite of techniques that are likely to be useful in a wide range of applications. In particular, we describe a general framework for dealing with nonlinear behavior using numerical integration techniques, extending the successful Unscented Filter. We also show how to use a fixed-point computation to deal with effects that develop at different time scales, specifically rapid changes occuring during slowly changing processes. We test our model using real data collected from the RWGS, demonstrating the feasibility of hybrid DBNs for monitoring complex real-world physical systems.

Lerner, Uri↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Distributed Simulation-to-Flight Framework to Support Investigating Trust/Trustworthiness in Multi-Agent Systems

As autonomous systems continue to grow both in use and complexity, the necessity for robust and extensible simulation-to-flight frameworks is paramount for establishing an effective architecture for autonomous systems. Hardware test flights are time-consuming and cost prohibitive during early system design and development. Simulation environments can be useful tools to accelerate algorithm development and testing. However, transitions from simulation to flight (sim-to-flight) can be challenging, unless systems are designed with this transition in mind and with the necessary capabilities built into the architecture and framework. One of the objectives of Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR) was to design and develop a distributed mixed-reality simulation environment to begin establishing a basis for certification of autonomous systems via research into trust and trustworthiness. ATTRACTOR’s objective was to construct computational concepts of trustworthiness and justifiable trust in multi-agent autonomous teams, to inform future certification of safety-critical and time-critical autonomous systems in aviation. In this paper, we present an autonomous systems architecture and development framework paired with a persistent distributed modeling and simulation (ModSim) environment for test and evaluation of autonomous systems. They were designed under ATTRACTOR in order to measure and establish trustworthiness and trust in single-and multi-agent human-machine systems whether these machines are fixed-wing general aviation, rotary-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), ground rovers, or even spacecraft. The Autonomous Entity Operational Network (AEON) framework enables autonomous system development with an easily extensible collection of libraries and plug-n-play nodes facilitated by the Data Distribution Service (DDS) communication protocol standard. The Baseline Environment for Autonomous Modeling (BEAM) simulation environment is a distributed mixed-reality Unity™-based environment built around the same DDS communication paradigm allowing for easy integration with AEON-based autonomous applications, enabling sim-to-flight with minimal configuration changes. Using AEON and BEAM, source code that runs in simulation ports directly to hardware and has successfully flown in the National Airspace System (NAS) at NASA LaRC many times over the lifetime of ATTRACTOR.

Benjamin N Kelley↗
NASA NTRS1998

Reveal, A General Reverse Engineering Algorithm for Inference of Genetic Network Architectures

Given the immanent gene expression mapping covering whole genomes during development, health and disease, we seek computational methods to maximize functional inference from such large data sets. Is it possible, in principle, to completely infer a complex regulatory network architecture from input/output patterns of its variables? We investigated this possibility using binary models of genetic networks. Trajectories, or state transition tables of Boolean nets, resemble time series of gene expression. By systematically analyzing the mutual information between input states and output states, one is able to infer the sets of input elements controlling each element or gene in the network. This process is unequivocal and exact for complete state transition tables. We implemented this REVerse Engineering ALgorithm (REVEAL) in a C program, and found the problem to be tractable within the conditions tested so far. For n = 50 (elements) and k = 3 (inputs per element), the analysis of incomplete state transition tables (100 state transition pairs out of a possible 10(exp 15)) reliably produced the original rule and wiring sets. While this study is limited to synchronous Boolean networks, the algorithm is generalizable to include multi-state models, essentially allowing direct application to realistic biological data sets. The ability to adequately solve the inverse problem may enable in-depth analysis of complex dynamic systems in biology and other fields.

Liang, Shoudan↗
NASA NTRS2004

Development and Evaluation of Fault-Tolerant Flight Control Systems

The research is concerned with developing a new approach to enhancing fault tolerance of flight control systems. The original motivation for fault-tolerant control comes from the need for safe operation of control elements (e.g. actuators) in the event of hardware failures in high reliability systems. One such example is modem space vehicle subjected to actuator/sensor impairments. A major task in flight control is to revise the control policy to balance impairment detectability and to achieve sufficient robustness. This involves careful selection of types and parameters of the controllers and the impairment detecting filters used. It also involves a decision, upon the identification of some failures, on whether and how a control reconfiguration should take place in order to maintain a certain system performance level. In this project new flight dynamic model under uncertain flight conditions is considered, in which the effects of both ramp and jump faults are reflected. Stabilization algorithms based on neural network and adaptive method are derived. The control algorithms are shown to be effective in dealing with uncertain dynamics due to external disturbances and unpredictable faults. The overall strategy is easy to set up and the computation involved is much less as compared with other strategies. Computer simulation software is developed. A serious of simulation studies have been conducted with varying flight conditions.

Song, Yong D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)

While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.

Digital Twins↗
DOE OSTI2026

Building a Trusted Roaming Hub [Slides]

The Trusted Roaming Hub is a U.S. Department of Energy-backed initiative led by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) to address one of the most persistent challenges in electric vehicle (EV) charging: fragmented roaming, inconsistent interoperability, and insufficient digital trust across charging networks. As EV adoption accelerates and charging infrastructure scales nationwide, today's many-to-many integration model between eMobility Service Providers (eMSPs) and Charge Point Operators (CPOs) has become increasingly brittle, costly, and difficult to secure. The Trusted Roaming Hub introduces a neutral, cybersecurity-forward "switchboard" architecture that enables standardized, secure, and scalable roaming interactions across the EV charging ecosystem. Rather than replacing existing networks or commercial relationships, the hub acts as a trusted intermediary that enforces consistent identity, authentication, authorization, and routing across participants improving reliability for drivers, lowering integration burden for industry, and creating a foundation for future grid-interactive charging services. This read-ahead provides an overview of the problem the hub is designed to solve, the core functional and security concepts behind the architecture, the value proposition to key stakeholders, and the near-term trajectory of the work.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing reinforcement learning algorithms for building HVAC control: From experimental observation to simulation comparisons

Advanced supervisory-level control with reinforcement learning (RL) is regarded as a promising solution for HVAC systems to minimize energy consumption while maintaining thermal comfort and indoor air quality. However, most RL applications were conducted in the simulation environment rather than real-world HVAC systems. This paper developed a value-based RL controller termed Deep Q-Network (DQN) for a typical central HVAC system and evaluated its performance in a building test facility. By comparing DQN with a rule-based controller, the study not only demonstrated the cases where DQN could properly maintain indoor comfort but also discussed possible reasons why DQN failed in some other situations. Recognizing the limitations of value-based RL algorithms from the experimental tests, a simulation study was conducted to compare DQN with an alternative RL approach, an actor–critic algorithm termed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG). In scenarios with a relatively large action space, DDPG outperformed DQN by requiring fewer computational resources and achieving better thermal comfort, lower energy consumption, and more stable control actions. The findings suggest that the ability of DDPG to handle continuous control variables more effectively allows for faster convergence in training and more precise control in practice, which enhances the overall efficiency and reliability of the HVAC system.

Guo, Fangzhou↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Role of Margin in Link Design and Optimization

Link analysis is a system engineering process in the design, development, and operation of communication systems and networks. Link models that are mathematical abstractions representing the useful signal power and the undesirable noise and attenuation effects (including weather effects if the signal path transverses through the atmosphere) that are integrated into the link budget calculation that provides the estimates of signal power and noise power at the receiver. Then the link margin is applied which attempts to counteract the fluctuations of the signal and noise power to ensure reliable data delivery from transmitter to receiver. (Link margin is dictated by the link margin policy or requirements.) A simple link budgeting approach assumes link parameters to be deterministic values typically adopted a rule-of-thumb policy of 3 dB link margin. This policy works for most S- and X-band links due to their insensitivity to weather effects. But for higher frequency links like Ka-band, Ku-band, and optical communication links, it is unclear if a 3 dB link margin would guarantee link closure. Statistical link analysis that adopted the 2-sigma or 3-sigma link margin incorporates link uncertainties in the sigma calculation. (The Deep Space Network (DSN) link margin policies are 2-sigma for downlink and 3-sigma for uplink.) The link reliability can therefore be quantified statistically even for higher frequency links. However in the current statistical link analysis approach, link reliability is only expressed as the likelihood of exceeding the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) threshold that corresponds to a given bit-error-rate (BER) or frame-error-rate (FER) requirement. The method does not provide the true BER or FER estimate of the link with margin, or the required signalto-noise ratio (SNR) that would meet the BER or FER requirement in the statistical sense. In this paper, we perform in-depth analysis on the relationship between BER/FER requirement, operating SNR, and coding performance curve, in the case when the channel coherence time of link fluctuation is comparable or larger than the time duration of a codeword. We compute the "true" SNR design point that would meet the BER/FER requirement by taking into account the fluctuation of signal power and noise power at the receiver, and the shape of the coding performance curve. This analysis yields a number of valuable insights on the design choices of coding scheme and link margin for the reliable data delivery of a communication system - space and ground. We illustrate the aforementioned analysis using a number of standard NASA error-correcting codes.

Cheung, K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Scalable parallel communications

Coarse-grain parallelism in networking (that is, the use of multiple protocol processors running replicated software sending over several physical channels) can be used to provide gigabit communications for a single application. Since parallel network performance is highly dependent on real issues such as hardware properties (e.g., memory speeds and cache hit rates), operating system overhead (e.g., interrupt handling), and protocol performance (e.g., effect of timeouts), we have performed detailed simulations studies of both a bus-based multiprocessor workstation node (based on the Sun Galaxy MP multiprocessor) and a distributed-memory parallel computer node (based on the Touchstone DELTA) to evaluate the behavior of coarse-grain parallelism. Our results indicate: (1) coarse-grain parallelism can deliver multiple 100 Mbps with currently available hardware platforms and existing networking protocols (such as Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) and parallel Fiber Distributed Data Interface (FDDI) rings); (2) scale-up is near linear in n, the number of protocol processors, and channels (for small n and up to a few hundred Mbps); and (3) since these results are based on existing hardware without specialized devices (except perhaps for some simple modifications of the FDDI boards), this is a low cost solution to providing multiple 100 Mbps on current machines. In addition, from both the performance analysis and the properties of these architectures, we conclude: (1) multiple processors providing identical services and the use of space division multiplexing for the physical channels can provide better reliability than monolithic approaches (it also provides graceful degradation and low-cost load balancing); (2) coarse-grain parallelism supports running several transport protocols in parallel to provide different types of service (for example, one TCP handles small messages for many users, other TCP's running in parallel provide high bandwidth service to a single application); and (3) coarse grain parallelism will be able to incorporate many future improvements from related work (e.g., reduced data movement, fast TCP, fine-grain parallelism) also with near linear speed-ups.

Maly, K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

FFTSF: Revisiting Sub-Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting with Simple Feedforward Network

Accurate short-to-subseasonal streamflow forecasts are vital for water management, including flood preparedness, drought mitigation, hydropower scheduling, and ecosystem protection. However, extending a forecast beyond a few days remains challenging due to complexity of hydrological processes. While recent self-attention based transformer architectures such as iTransformer have gained traction in time-series forecasting, these models suffer from several critical limitations: (1) significant computational overhead that scales quadratically with sequence length, (2) vulnerability to overfitting on limited hydrological datasets, (3) degraded performance on long-horizon forecasts due to attention decay, and (4) excessive architectural complexity that hampers interpretability and operational deployment. In this study, we propose a simple Feedforward Time Series Forecasting (FFTSF) network that directly addresses these limitations through its lightweight architecture and long-range forecasting capabilities. We evaluate FFTSF across 178 USGS stream gauges spanning diverse climate regimes by forecasting lead times of 1-, 7-, 14-, and 30-days. Our results demonstrate that FFTSF achieves competitive performance at short lead times (NSE of 0.778 for 1-day forecasts) while substantially outperforming complex baselines at longer forecast period, achieving the highest NSE (0.271) at 30-day forecasts with greater robustness and stability. For 30-day forecasts, FFTSF achieves a 71% improvement over NLinear, 57% improvement over DLinear and 12% improvement over the computationally intensive iTransformer while requiring fewer computational resources. Our findings reveal that architectural complexity is not necessary for hydrological forecasting, demonstrating that well-designed simple models can outperform attention mechanisms for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. The computational efficiency and consistent long-range performance of FFTSF make it suitable for water management applications where reliable extended forecasts are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗