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DOE OSTI2022

Photometric redshift uncertainties in weak gravitational lensing shear analysis: models and marginalization

ABSTRACT Recovering credible cosmological parameter constraints in a weak lensing shear analysis requires an accurate model that can be used to marginalize over nuisance parameters describing potential sources of systematic uncertainty, such as the uncertainties on the sample redshift distribution n(z). Due to the challenge of running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in the high-dimensional parameter spaces in which the n(z) uncertainties may be parametrized, it is common practice to simplify the n(z) parametrization or combine MCMC chains that each have a fixed n(z) resampled from the n(z) uncertainties. In this work, we propose a statistically principled Bayesian resampling approach for marginalizing over the n(z) uncertainty using multiple MCMC chains. We self-consistently compare the new method to existing ones from the literature in the context of a forecasted cosmic shear analysis for the HSC three-year shape catalogue, and find that these methods recover statistically consistent error bars for the cosmological parameter constraints for predicted HSC three-year analysis, implying that using the most computationally efficient of the approaches is appropriate. However, we find that for data sets with the constraining power of the full HSC survey data set (and, by implication, those upcoming surveys with even tighter constraints), the choice of method for marginalizing over n(z) uncertainty among the several methods from the literature may modify the 1σ uncertainties on Ωm–S8 constraints by ∼4 per cent, and a careful model selection is needed to ensure credible parameter intervals.

Zhang, Tianqing (ORCID:000000025596198X)↗

DOE OSTI2020

¬¬Integration of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology into Parallel Discrete Event Simulator Framework

Parallel Discrete Events Simulation (PDES) is becoming increasingly important to lab efforts in security and intelligence. It is used to model complex asynchronous systems such as computer networks, satellite systems, vehicular traffic, and human performance. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques have become a mainstay of Verification and Validation (V&V) efforts on physics simulations. However, PDES models are very different from traditional physics simulations, and research into UQ techniques for PDES is in its infancy. It is not clear which traditional UQ techniques can be applied to PDES, or what new techniques will need to be developed. The goal of this project was to identify existing UQ techniques that can be applied to PDES, and to develop new techniques as necessary. The project implemented or developed techniques to handle issues that do not appear in traditional physics simulations, but are common among PDES, including sampling techniques for high-dimensional homogenous inputs, response surfaces for high-variance heteroskedastic output, and characterization of skewed output distributions. These are foundational UQ techniques that must be used in any complete UQ analysis (Tong 2018).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Towards a fast implementation of spectral nested dissection

We describe the spectral nested dissection (SND) algorithm, a new algorithm for computing orderings appropriate for parallel factorization of sparse, symmetric matrices. The algorithm makes use of spectral properties of the Laplacian matrix associated with the given matrix to compute separators. We evaluate the quality of the spectral orderings with respect to several measures: fill, elimination tree height, height and weight balances of elimination trees, and clique tree heights. We use some very large structural analysis problems as test cases and demonstrate on these real applications (such as the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster) that spectral orderings compare quite favorably with commonly used orderings, outperforming them by a wide margin for some of these measures. The only disadvantage of SND is its relatively long execution time. We will present some recent efforts to improve the execution time using both a multilevel and a hybrid approach. We use SND in computing a multifrontal numerical factorization with the different orderings on an eight processor Cray Y-MP and show its effectiveness. We believe that spectral nested dissection is a major breakthrough in terms of generating efficient sparse orderings for parallel machines.

Pothen, Alex↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of Margin-Based Methods to Assess System Health

Health management of complex systems such as nuclear power plants is an essential task to guarantee system reliability. This task can be greatly enhanced by constantly monitoring asset status and performances and process such data (through anomaly detection, diagnostic, and prognostic computational algorithms) to identify asset degradation trends and faulty states. While such information and data are typically available for many of the assets, they are not propagated from the asset to the system level in order to identify the most critical assets and prioritize maintenance and surveillance activities. The main reason is driven by the fact that current reliability modeling techniques are inadequate to process such information/data. This is due to the nature of these techniques which are based on the concept of failure rate/probability that do not serve an operational context where quantitative asset health information is available. Simply stated, current reliability techniques serve a run-to-failure operational setting and not a predictive maintenance one where the goal is to perform maintenance and surveillance activities only when they are needed based on asset health. The risk informed asset management (RIAM) project is focusing on the development of a different kind of reliability modeling techniques designed to adequately serve a predictive operational setting. Such reliability techniques move aways from a failure rate/probability to a margin-based mindset where margin is here used as a metric to quantify asset health based only on current and past operational experience of the asset under consideration. In addition, margin-based reliability techniques are able to propagate asset health information from the component to system level and provide importance measure to each asset. This report summarizes a recent activity performed in collaboration with plant modernization pathway designed to integrate monitoring data into margin-based reliability models. Such activity focuses on a specific system of an existing nuclear power plant where large amount of historic monitoring data is used to monitor asset and system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic PRA-Based Estimation of PWR Coping Time Using a Surrogate Model for Accident Tolerant Fuel

In this study, we propose an interpolation-based response surface surrogate methodology to manage a large number of scenarios in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It adopts the shape Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to cluster the interpolation neighborhood from time series sample data. The interpolation method was adapted from Taylor Kriging to allow a reduced-order model of the Taylor series. In order to demonstrate its applicability to complex issues in risk assessment for nuclear engineering, an example risk response surface to estimate emergency core cooling system (ECCS) criteria for triplex silicon carbide (SiC) accident-tolerant fuel was constructed. The response surface was exploited to estimate the cumulative failure probability of the fuel cladding structure due to the uncertainties in operator actions and safety systems. The functional failures were assessed based on a combination of individual layer failures computed by coupling Risk Analysis Virtual Environment software with a pressurized water reactor 1000-MW(electric) RELAP5 model and the in-house fuel performance assessment module. Results showed that SiC cladding failure probability spiked less than 1 min after a large-break loss-of- coolant accident whenever the current ECCS criteria for Zircaloy-4 (Zr-4) cladding was used. However, it still provides an increased safety margin of three orders of magnitude compared to Zr-4. This positive margin could be utilized to relax active ECCS requirements by allowing deviations of up to 450 s in its actuation time. The proposed surrogate methodology generated a response surface of SiC cladding failure probability reasonably well, with a significant savings of computation time. This methodology is expected to be useful in the analysis of system response with complex uncertainty sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1998

Development of an Experimental Data Base to Validate Compressor-Face Boundary Conditions Used in Unsteady Inlet Flow Computations

The ability to predict the dynamics of integrated inlet/compressor systems is an important part of designing high-speed propulsion systems. The boundaries of the performance envelope are often defined by undesirable transient phenomena in the inlet (unstart, buzz, etc.) in response to disturbances originated either in the engine or in the atmosphere. Stability margins used to compensate for the inability to accurately predict such processes lead to weight and performance penalties, which translate into a reduction in vehicle range. The prediction of transients in an inlet/compressor system requires either the coupling of two complex, unsteady codes (one for the inlet and one for the engine) or else a reliable characterization of the inlet/compressor interface, by specifying a boundary condition. In the context of engineering development programs, only the second option is viable economically. Computations of unsteady inlet flows invariably rely on simple compressor-face boundary conditions (CFBC's). Currently, customary conditions include choked flow, constant static pressure, constant axial velocity, constant Mach number or constant mass flow per unit area. These conditions are straightforward extensions of practices that are valid for and work well with steady inlet flows. Unfortunately, it is not at all likely that any flow property would stay constant during a complex system transient. At the start of this effort, no experimental observation existed that could be used to formulate of verify any of the CFBC'S. This lack of hard information represented a risk for a development program that has been recognized to be unacceptably large. The goal of the present effort was to generate such data. Disturbances reaching the compressor face in flight may have complex spatial structures and temporal histories. Small amplitude disturbances may be decomposed into acoustic, vorticity and entropy contributions that are uncoupled if the undisturbed flow is uniform. This study is focused on the response of an inlet/compressor system to acoustic disturbances. From the viewpoint of inlet computations, acoustic disturbances are clearly the most important, since they are the only ones capable of moving upstream. Convective and entropy disturbances may also produce upstream-moving acoustic waves, but such processes are outside the scope of the present study.

Sajben, Miklos↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing the effect of regularization on the molecular properties predicted by SCAN and self-interaction corrected SCAN meta-GGA

Recent regularization of the SCAN meta-GGA functional (rSCAN) has simplified the numerical complexities of the SCAN functional, alleviating SCAN's stringent demand on the numerical integration grids to some extent. The regularization of rSCAN, however, results in the breaking of some constraints such as the uniform electron gas limit, the slowly varying density limit, and coordinate scaling of the iso-orbital indicator. Here, we assess the effects of regularization on the electronic, structural, vibrational, and magnetic properties of molecules by comparing the SCAN and rSCAN predictions. The properties studied include atomic energies, atomization energies, ionization potentials, electron affinities, barrier heights, infrared intensities, dissociation and reaction energies, spin moments of molecular magnets, and isomer ordering of water clusters. Our results show that rSCAN requires less dense numerical grids and gives very similar results to those of SCAN for all properties examined with the exception of atomization energies, which are worsened in rSCAN. We also examine the performance of self-interaction-corrected (SIC) rSCAN with respect to SIC-SCAN using the Perdew–Zunger (PZ) SIC method. The PZSIC method uses orbital densities to compute one-electron self-interaction errors and places an even more stringent demand on numerical grids. Our results show that SIC-rSCAN gives marginally better performance than SIC-SCAN for almost all properties studied in this work with numerical grids that are on average half or less as dense as that needed for SIC-SCAN.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Demand Response Incorporating Distribution LMP with PV Generation Uncertainty

The utilization of aggregated demand-side flexibility via demand response (DR) has become a promising pathway for the integration of renewable energy resources in power systems. Nowadays, there are several management strategies for DR such as the price-based transactive control strategies. However, many of such existing price-based control strategies neglect the physics and operational constraints of the underlying distribution networks when computing the price, raising concerns regarding their theoretical and practical values. This paper studies this issue and investigates optimal DR (ODR) by incorporating the distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). In particular, we discuss DR in connection with DLMPs and propose a multiperiod bilevel optimization problem to find the ODR strategy. Here, the objective is to minimize the peak load, load fluctuation, and payments of load aggregators. In addition, a robust bilevel ODR model is formulated to provide a robust ODR strategy while minimizing operating costs under the worst-case realization of uncertainties; this mitigates the impact of forecasting errors on renewable energy resources. Then, we propose an efficient solution approach by employing the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions and strong duality. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the mutual impacts of the interaction between DR and DLMP and the benefits of the robust ODR strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1979

Model for refining operations

Program predicts production volumes of petroleum refinery products, with particular emphasis on aircraft-turbine fuel blends and their key properties. It calculates capital and operating costs for refinery and its margin of profitability. Program also includes provisions for processing of synthetic crude oils from oil shale and coal liquefaction processes and contains highly-detailed blending computations for alternative jet-fuel blends of varying endpoint specifications.

Dunbar, D. N.↗

NASA NTRS2010

History of Space Shuttle Main Engine Turbopump Bearing Testing at the Marshall Space Flight Center

The Space Shuttle is propelled into orbit by two solid rocket motors and three liquid fed main engines. After the solid motors fall away, the shuttle engines continue to run for a total time of 8 minutes. These engines are fed propellants by low and high pressure turbopumps. A critical part of the turbopump is the main shaft that supports the drive turbine and the pump inducer and impeller. Rolling element bearings hold the shaft in place during rotation. If the bearings were to fail, the shaft would move, allowing components to rub in a liquid oxygen or hydrogen environment, which could have catastrophic results. These bearings are required to spin at very high speeds, support radial and axial loads, and have high wear resistance without the benefit of a conventional means of lubrication. The Rocketdyne built Shuttle turbopumps demonstrated their capability to perform during launches; however, the seven hour life requirement was not being met. One of the limiting factors was the bearings. In the late 1970's, an engineering team was formed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), to develop a test rig and plan for testing the Shuttle s main engine high pressure oxygen turbopump (HPOTP) bearings. The goals of the program were to better understand the operation of bearings in a cryogenic environment and to further develop and refine existing computer models used to predict the operational limits of these bearings. In 1982, testing began in a rig named the Bearing and Seal Material Tester or BSMT as it was commonly called. The first testing investigated the thermal margin and thermal runaway limits of the HPOTP bearings. The test rig was later used to explore potential bearing improvements in the area of increased race curvatures, new cage materials for better lubrication, new wear resistant rolling element materials, and other ideas to improve wear life. The most notable improvements during this tester s time was the incorporation of silicon nitride balls and bronze filled polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) cage inserts into the bearings and the anchoring of the SHABERTH bearing model and SINDA thermal computer model for cryogenic bearing analysis. In the mid 1990's, Pratt and Whitney (P&W) won the contract to deliver new high pressure turbopumps for the Shuttle s engines. P&W used two new bearing materials for the rings, Cronidur 30 and AISI 9310 steel and testing was needed on these new materials. A test rig had been designed and delivered to MSFC for testing hydrostatic bearings but with the need by Pratt to validate their bearings, the rig was reconfigured for testing of two ball bearings or a ball bearing and a roller bearing. The P&W bearings are larger than the Rocketdyne bearings and could not be installed in the BSMT. This new test rig was called the LH2 test rig and began operation in 1995. The LH2 test rig accumulated 75,000 seconds of run time in hydrogen. This test rig was valuable in two areas: validating the use of silicon nitride balls and rollers in Alternate Turbopump Development (ATD) bearings, which Pratt eventually used, and in proving the robustness of the balls and rollers after river marks appeared on the surface of the rolling elements. Individual test reports have been presented at conferences and symposiums throughout the years. This paper is a comprehensive report of all the bearing testing done at Marshall. It represents thousands of hours of dedication and labor in all engineering and technical fields that made this program a success.

Gibson, Howard↗

DOE OSTI2023

AI-Based Faster-Than-Real-Time Stability Assessment of Large Power Systems with Applications on WECC System

Achieving clean energy goals will require significant advances in regard to addressing the computational needs for next-generation renewable-dominated power grids. One critical obstacle that lies in the way of transitioning today’s power grid to a renewable-dominated power grid is the lack of a faster-than-real-time stability assessment technology for operating a fast-changing power grid. This paper proposes an artificial intelligence (AI) -based method that predicts the system’s stability margin information (e.g., the frequency nadir in the frequency stability assessment and the critical clearing time (CCT) value in the transient stability assessment) directly from the system operating conditions without performing the conventional time-consuming time-domain simulations over detailed dynamic models. Since the AI method shifts the majority of the computational burden to offline training, the online evaluation is extremely fast. This paper has tested the AI-based stability assessment method using multiple dispatch cases that are converted and tuned from actual dispatch cases of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system model with more than 20,000 buses. The results show that the AI-based method could accurately predict the stability margin of such a large power system in less than 0.2 milliseconds using the offline-trained AI agent. Therefore, the proposed method has great potential to achieve faster-than-real-time stability assessment for practical large power systems while preserving sufficient accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1984

Body-freedom flutter of a 1/2-scale forward-swept-wing model, an experimental and analytical study

The aeroelastic phenomenon known as body-freedom flutter (BFF), a dynamic instability involving aircraft-pitch and wing-bending motions which, though rarely experienced on conventional vehicles, is characteristic of forward swept wing (FSW) aircraft was investigated. Testing was conducted in the Langley transonic dynamics tunnel on a flying, cable-mounted, 1/2-scale model of a FSW configuration with and without relaxed static stability (RSS). The BFF instability boundaries were found to occur at significantly lower airspeeds than those associated with aeroelastic wing divergence on the same model. For those cases with RSS, a canard-based stability augmentation system (SAS) was incorporated in the model. This SAS was designed using aerodynamic data measured during a preliminary tunnel test in which the model was attached to a force balance. Data from the subsequent flutter test indicated that BFF speed was not dependent on open-loop static margin but, rather, on the equivalent closed-loop dynamics provided by the SAS. Servo-aeroelastic stability analyses of the flying model were performed using a computer code known as SEAL and predicted the onset of BFF reasonably well.

Chipman, R.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Reduction of weather effects in the calculation of sea ice concentration from microwave radiances

A technique is presented which improves existing methods of calculating sea ice concentrations from microwave radiances by reducing weather-related effects over open ocean areas and in the vicinity of marginal sea ice zones. Winds, atmospheric water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rain increase the microwave emission over these regions and thus result in erroneous values of computed sea ice concentration. The method described is based on the microwave spectral properties of sea ice and ice-free ocean and utilizes ratios of the polarized radiances at the 0.81-cm (37 GHz) and 1.7-cm (18 GHz) wavelengths. Following a discussion of the physical basis for this technique, examples are provided which demonstrate its utility. While the technique was developed for use with the Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer data, it is applicable also to data from other microwave radiometers operating in a similar wavelength range.

Gloersen, P.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Use of nonlinear design optimization techniques in the comparison of battery discharger topologies for the space platform

A detailed comparison of a boost converter, a voltage-fed, autotransformer converter, and a multimodule boost converter, designed specifically for the space platform battery discharger, is performed. Computer-based nonlinear optimization techniques are used to facilitate an objective comparison. The multimodule boost converter is shown to be the optimum topology at all efficiencies. The margin is greatest at 97 percent efficiency. The multimodule, multiphase boost converter combines the advantages of high efficiency, light weight, and ample margin on the component stresses, thus ensuring high reliability.

Sable, Dan M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Space Station Freedom UHF antenna performance prediction

The ability of two Space Station Freedom (SSF) UHF antennas to communicate with an EVA astronaut one meter behind SSF major structures is analyzed. These regions are expected to have the most significant shadowing effects due to the large electrical size of the structures. The rigorous geometrical theory of diffraction method was used to compute the electric field. The total field is obtained by summing the direct fields from the antennas and the reflected and diffracted fields from the SSF structures. The computed signal strength in terms of the electric field behind SSF major structures is presented and compared to the signal strength corresponding to the 0 dB link margin. Based on the results obtained in this study, in order to increase the signal strength and to minimize the major structure near field shadowing effects when the EVA is working behind SSF major structures, the two UHF antenna booms should be mounted separately so that one boom is on the port side and the other boom is on the starboard side - one above the truss and one below the truss.

Hwu, Shian U.↗

NASA NTRS2002

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 km or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed-shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗

NASA NTRS2002

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 kin or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed- shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗

NASA NTRS2009

Space Shuttle Communications Coverage Analysis for Thermal Tile Inspection

The space shuttle ultra-high frequency Space-to-Space Communication System has to provide adequate communication coverage for astronauts who are performing thermal tile inspection and repair on the underside of the space shuttle orbiter (SSO). Careful planning and quantitative assessment are necessary to ensure successful system operations and mission safety in this work environment. This study assesses communication systems performance for astronauts who are working in the underside, non-line-of-sight shadow region on the space shuttle. All of the space shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) transmitting antennas are blocked by the SSO structure. To ensure communication coverage at planned inspection worksites, the signal strength and link margin between the SSO/ISS antennas and the extravehicular activity astronauts, whose line-of-sight is blocked by vehicle structure, was analyzed. Investigations were performed using rigorous computational electromagnetic modeling techniques. Signal strength was obtained by computing the reflected and diffracted fields along the signal propagation paths between transmitting and receiving antennas. Radio frequency (RF) coverage was determined for thermal tile inspection and repair missions using the results of this computation. Analysis results from this paper are important in formulating the limits on reliable communication range and RF coverage at planned underside inspection and repair worksites.

Kroll, Quin D.↗