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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale modeling high-order methods and data-driven modeling

Projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) comprise a promising set of data-driven approaches for accelerating the simulation of high-fidelity numerical simulations. Standard projection-based ROM approaches, however, suffer from several drawbacks when applied to the complex nonlinear dynamical systems commonly encountered in science and engineering. These limitations include a lack of stability, accuracy, and sharp a posteriori error estimators. This work addresses these limitations by leveraging multiscale modeling, least-squares principles, and machine learning to develop novel reduced-order modeling approaches, along with data-driven a posteriori error estimators, for dynamical systems. Theoretical and numerical results demonstrate that the two ROM approaches developed in this work - namely the windowed least-squares method and the Adjoint Petrov - Galerkin method - yield substantial improvements over state-of-the-art approaches. Additionally, numerical results demonstrate the capability of the a posteriori error models developed in this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous Inversion of In Situ Deformation Measurement Data for Injection-Induced Stress Change

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is likely to play a key part of the global effort to dramatically reduce CO2 emissions and perhaps even reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations through carbon negative operations. A critical part of effort to commercialize and widely deploy this technology is developing the capability to rapidly assimilate real-time monitoring data into a form that will enable site operators to make decisions to manage the safe and efficient operations. Two of the risks associate with GCS are the risk of inducing fractures in the sealing formations that can create leakage pathways and the risk of inducing earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to cause public concern, property damage, or safety risks. To properly manage these risks the site operator needs to know the initial state of stress, the change in stress induced by injection, and the relationship between operational parameters such as injection rate and pressure and the change in stress. Current methods of estimating the change in stress require choosing the type of constitutive model and the model parameters based on core, log, and geophysical data during the characterization phase, with little feedback from operational observations to validate or refine these choices. These characterization methods interrogate the geologic formations using length scales, loading rates or magnitudes that are quite different from those encountered by the actual storage system. It is shown that errors in the assumed constitutive response, even when informed by laboratory tests on core samples, are likely to be common, large, and underestimate the magnitude of stress change caused by injection. Recent advances in borehole-based strain instruments and borehole and surface-based tilt and displacement instruments have now enabled monitoring of the deformation of the storage system throughout its operational lifespan. This data can enable validation and refinement of the knowledge of the geomechanical properties and state of the system, but brings with it a challenge to transform the raw data into actionable knowledge. We demonstrate a method that uses automatic differentiation and a finite-element based geomechanical model perform a gradient-based deterministic inversion of geomechanical monitoring data. This approach allows autonomous integration of the instrument data without the need for time consuming manual interpretation and selection of updated model parameters. Furthermore, only isotropic linear elasticity is considered in this paper, the approach presented is very flexible as to what type of geomechanical constitutive response can be used. The approach is easily adaptable to nonlinear physics-based constitutive models to account for common rock behaviors such as creep and plasticity. The approach also enables training of machine learning-based constitutive models by allowing back propagation of errors through the finite element calculations. This enables strongly enforcing known physics, such as conservation of momentum and continuity, while allowing data-driven models to learn the truly unknown physics such as the constitutive or petrophysical responses.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points

Abstract As climate change continues, the likelihood of passing critical thresholds or tipping points increases. Hence, there is a need to advance the science for detecting such thresholds. In this paper, we assess the needs and opportunities for Earth Observation (EO, here understood to refer to satellite observations) to inform society in responding to the risks associated with ten potential large-scale ocean tipping elements: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; Beaufort Gyre; Arctic halocline; Kuroshio Large Meander; deoxygenation; phytoplankton; zooplankton; higher level ecosystems (including fisheries); and marine biodiversity. We review current scientific understanding and identify specific EO and related modelling needs for each of these tipping elements. We draw out some generic points that apply across several of the elements. These common points include the importance of maintaining long-term, consistent time series; the need to combine EO data consistently with in situ data types (including subsurface), for example through data assimilation; and the need to reduce or work with current mismatches in resolution (in both directions) between climate models and EO datasets. Our analysis shows that developing EO, modelling and prediction systems together, with understanding of the strengths and limitations of each, provides many promising paths towards monitoring and early warning systems for tipping, and towards the development of the next generation of climate models.

Wood, Richard A. (ORCID:0000000239609513)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the robustness of deep multispectral segmentation models against natural perturbations and data poisoning

In overhead image segmentation tasks, including additional spectral bands beyond the traditional RGB channels can improve model performance. However, it is still unclear how incorporating this additional data impacts model robustness to adversarial attacks and natural perturbations. For adversarial robustness, the additional in-formation could improve the model’s ability to distinguish malicious inputs, or simply provide new attack avenues and vulnerabilities. For natural perturbations, the additional information could better inform model decisions and weaken perturbation effects or have no significant influence at all. In this work, we seek to characterize the performance and robustness of a multispectral (RGB and near infrared) image segmentation model subjected to adversarial attacks and natural perturbations. While existing adversarial and natural robustness research has focused primarily on digital perturbations, we prioritize on creating realistic perturbations designed with physical world conditions in mind. For adversarial robustness, we focus on data poisoning attacks whereas for natural robustness, we focus on extending ImageNet-C common corruptions for fog and snow that coherently and self-consistently perturbs the input data. Overall, we find both RGB and multispectral models are vulnerable to data poisoning attacks regardless of input or fusion architectures and that while physically-realizable natural perturbations still degrade model performance, the impact differs based on fusion architecture and input data.

Deep learning, multispectral images, multimodal fu↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of removal and spatial mark‐resight models for estimating wild pig density

Density estimation is critical to effectively manage invasive species and elucidate areas of highest concern. For wild pigs (Sus scrofa), the ability to estimate density is complicated because of their variable home range sizes and social structure. Common methods for estimating density (e.g., mark-recapture) may be unsuitable in management applications because additional data needs to be collected before and after management. Removal models offer a suitable alternative to estimate density changes following management and can be applied broadly across areas where management of wild pigs is ongoing. We collected wild pig removal and camera trap data from 25 private properties ranging in size from approximately 0.5 km 2 to 95 km 2 across 3 ecoregions in South Carolina, USA, from 2020–2023. We compared factors affecting consistency and precision of property-level density estimates between removal and spatial mark-resight (SMR) models. In general, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from removal models were between 0.60 and 15.85 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.34) with a median coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.76 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.70 and 0.94. Similarly, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from SMR were between 0.22 and 30.97 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.48) with a median CV of 0.39 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.38 and 1.20. We found the precision of removal models was affected primarily by the number of wild pigs dispatched in the removal period (3 months) and the ecoregion in which they were removed. None of the covariates, including the number of recaptures (a corresponding measure of sample size), influenced precision of the SMR models, although recaptures did influence the density estimates. At the individual property level, density estimates from our 2 estimators were dissimilar from each other in approximately 80% of instances, although none of the covariates we examined influenced dissimilarity. Our results provide unique insight into how sample size affects density estimates using 2 common methods and into novel SMR models that incorporate both marked and unmarked detections. In addition, the density estimates in this study can be used as a reference for wild pig densities in common land cover types throughout the southeastern United States.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Online Parameter Estimation Methods for Adaptive Cruise Control Systems

Modeling Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) vehicles enables the understanding of the impact of these vehicles on traffic flow. In this work, two online methods are used to provide real time system identification of ACC enabled vehicles. The first technique is a recursive least squares (RLS) approach, while the second method solves a nonlinear joint state and parameter estimation problem via particle filtering (PF). We provide a parameter identifiability analysis for both methods to analytically show that the model parameters are not identifiable using equilibrium driving. The accuracy and computational runtime of the online methods are compared to a commonly used offline simulation-based optimization (i.e., batch optimization) approach. The methods are tested on synthetic data as well as on empirical data collected directly from a 2019 model year ACC vehicle using data from sensors that are part of the stock ACC system. The online methods are scalable and provide comparable accuracy to the batch method. RLS runs in real time and is two orders of magnitude faster than the batch method for modest sized (e.g., 15 min) datasets. The particle filter also runs in real- time, and is also suitable in streaming applications in which the datasets can grow arbitrarily large.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon flux estimates are sensitive to data source: a comparison of field and lab temperature sensitivity data

Abstract A large literature exists on mechanisms driving soil production of the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 . Although it is common knowledge that measurements obtained through field studies vs. laboratory incubations can diverge because of the vastly different conditions of these environments, few studies have systematically examined these patterns. These data are used to parameterize and benchmark ecosystem- to global-scale models, which are then susceptible to the biases of the source data. Here, we examine how greenhouse gas measurements may be influenced by whether the measurement/incubation was conducted in the field vs. laboratory, focusing on CO 2 and CH 4 measurements. We use Q 10 of greenhouse gas flux (temperature sensitivity) for our analyses because this metric is commonly used in biological and Earth system sciences and is an important parameter in many modeling frameworks. We predicted that laboratory measurements would be less variable, but also less representative of true field conditions. However, there was greater variability in the Q 10 values calculated from lab-based measurements of CO 2 fluxes, because lab experiments explore extremes rarely seen in situ , and reflect the physical and chemical disturbances occurring during sampling, transport, and incubation. Overall, respiration Q 10 values were significantly greater in laboratory incubations (mean = 4.19) than field measurements (mean = 3.05), with strong influences of incubation temperature and climate region/biome. However, this was in part because field measurements typically represent total respiration (Rs), whereas lab incubations typically represent heterotrophic respiration (Rh), making direct comparisons difficult to interpret. Focusing only on Rh-derived Q 10 , these values showed almost identical distributions across laboratory ( n = 1110) and field ( n = 581) experiments, providing strong support for using the former as an experimental proxy for the latter, although we caution that geographic biases in the extant data make this conclusion tentative. Due to a smaller sample size of CH 4 Q 10 data, we were unable to perform a comparable robust analysis, but we expect similar interactions with soil temperature, moisture, and environmental/climatic variables. Our results here suggest the need for more concerted efforts to document and standardize these data, including sample and site metadata.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Energetics Materials’ Crystalline Density from Chemical Structure by Machine Learning

To expedite new molecular compound development, a long-sought goal within the chemistry community has been to predict molecules’ bulk properties of interest a priori to synthesis from a chemical structure alone. In this work, we demonstrate that machine learning methods can indeed be used to directly learn the relationship between chemical structures and bulk crystalline properties of molecules, even in the absence of any crystal structure information or quantum mechanical calculations. We focus specifically on a class of organic compounds categorized as energetic materials called high explosives (HE) and predicting their crystalline density. An ongoing challenge within the chemistry machine learning community is deciding how best to featurize molecules as inputs into machine learning models—whether expert handcrafted features or learned molecular representations via graph-based neural network models—yield better results and why. We evaluate both types of representations in combination with a number of machine learning models to predict the crystalline densities of HE-like molecules curated from the Cambridge Structural Database, and we report the performance and pros and cons of our methods. Our message passing neural network (MPNN) based models with learned molecular representations generally perform best, outperforming current state-of-the-art methods at predicting crystalline density and performing well even when testing on a data set not representative of the training data. However, these models are traditionally considered black boxes and less easily interpretable. Here, to address this common challenge, we also provide a comparison analysis between our MPNN-based model and models with fixed feature representations that provides insights as to what features are learned by the MPNN to accurately predict density.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Candidate cosmic filament in the GJ526 field, mapped with the NIKA2 camera

Distinctive large-scale structures have been identified in the spatial distribution of optical galaxies up to redshift z ~ 1. In the more distant universe, the relationship between the dust-obscured population of star-forming galaxies observed at millimetre wavelengths and the network of cosmic filaments of dark matter apparent in all cosmological hydrodynamical simulations is still under study. Using the NIKA2 dual-band millimetre camera, we mapped a field of ~90 arcmin 2 in the direction of the star GJ526 simultaneously in its 1.15-mm and 2.0-mm continuum wavebands to investigate the nature of the quasi-alignment of five sources found ten years earlier with the MAMBO camera at 1.2 mm. We find that these sources are not clumps of a circumstellar debris disc around this star as initially hypothesized. Rather, they must be dust-obscured star-forming galaxies, or sub-millimetre galaxies (SMGs), in the distant background. The new NIKA2 map at 1.15 mm reveals a total of seven SMGs distributed in projection on the sky along a filament-like structure crossing the whole observed field. Furthermore, we show that the NIKA2 and supplemental Herschel photometric data are compatible with a model of the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of these sources when a common redshift of 2.5 and typical values of the dust parameters for SMGs are adopted. Hence, we speculate that these SMGs might be located in a filament of the distant ‘cosmic web’. The length of this candidate cosmic filament crossing the whole map is at least 4 cMpc (comoving), and the separations between sources are between 0.25 cMpc and 1.25 cMpc at this redshift, in line with expectations from cosmological simulations. Nonetheless, further observations to determine the precise spectroscopic redshifts of these sources are required to definitively support this hypothesis of SMGs embedded in a cosmic filament of dark matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating key cell types and molecules dynamics in PyMT mice model of breast cancer through a mathematical model

The most common kind of cancer among women is breast cancer. Understanding the tumor microenvironment and the interactions between individual cells and cytokines assists us in arriving at more effective treatments. Here, we develop a data-driven mathematical model to investigate the dynamics of key cell types and cytokines involved in breast cancer development. We use time-course gene expression profiles of a mouse model to estimate the relative abundance of cells and cytokines. We then employ a least-squares optimization method to evaluate the model’s parameters based on the mice data. The resulting dynamics of the cells and cytokines obtained from the optimal set of parameters exhibit a decent agreement between the data and predictions. We perform a sensitivity analysis to identify the crucial parameters of the model and then perform a local bifurcation on them. The results reveal a strong connection between adipocytes, IL6, and the cancer population, suggesting them as potential targets for therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative and Cost Analysis of a Novel Predictive Power Ramp Rate Control Method: A Case Study in a PV Power Plant in Puerto Rico

One of the most important aspects that need to be addressed to increase solar energy penetration is the power ramp-rate control. In weak grids such as the one found in Puerto Rico, it is important to smooth power fluctuations caused by the intermittence of passing clouds. In this work, a novel power ramp-rate control strategy is proposed. Additionally, a comparison with some of the most common power ramp-rate control methods is performed using a proposed model and real solar radiation data from the Coto Laurel photovoltaic power plant located in Ponce, Puerto Rico. The proposed model was validated using one-year real data from Coto Laurel. The power ramp-rate control methods were compared in real-time simulations using the OP5700 from Opal-RT Technologies considering power ramp rate fluctuations, power ramp-rate violations, fluctuations in the state-of-charge, among other indicators. Moreover, the proposed power ramp-rate control strategy, called predictive dynamic smoothing was explained and compared. Results indicate that the predictive dynamic smoothing produced a considerably reduced Levelized Cost of Storage compared to other power ramp-rate control methods and provided a higher lifetime expectancy for lithium batteries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Extreme Wave Conditions for Wave Energy Converter Design and Project Risk Assessment

Best practices and international standards for determining n-year return period extreme wave (sea states) conditions allow wave energy converter designers and project developers the option to apply simple univariate or more complex bivariate extreme value analysis methods. The present study compares extreme sea state estimates derived from univariate and bivariate methods and investigates the performance of spectral wave models for predicting extreme sea states at buoy locations within several regional wave climates along the US East and West Coasts. Two common third-generation spectral wave models are evaluated, a WAVEWATCH III® model with a grid resolution of 4 arc-minutes (6–7 km), and a Simulating WAves Nearshore model, with a coastal resolution of 200–300 m. Both models are used to generate multi-year hindcasts, from which extreme sea state statistics used for wave conditions characterization can be derived and compared to those based on in-situ observations at National Data Buoy Center stations. Comparison of results using different univariate and bivariate methods from the same data source indicates reasonable agreement on average. Discrepancies are predominantly random. Large discrepancies are common and increase with return period. There is a systematic underbias for extreme significant wave heights derived from model hindcasts compared to those derived from buoy measurements. This underbias is dependent on model spatial resolution. However, simple linear corrections can effectively compensate for this bias. A similar approach is not possible for correcting model-derived environmental contours, but other methods, e.g., machine learning, should be explored.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigating effects of soil chemicals on density of small mammal bioindicators using spatial capture-recapture models

Monitoring the ecological impacts of environmental pollution and the effectiveness of remediation efforts requires identifying relationships between contaminants and the disruption of biological processes in populations, communities, or ecosystems. Wildlife are useful bioindicators, but traditional comparative experimental approaches rely on a staunch and typically unverifiable assumption that, in the absence of contaminants, reference and contaminated sites would support the same densities of bioindicators, thereby inferring direct causation from indirect data. We demonstrate the utility of spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models for overcoming these issues, testing if community density of common small mammal bioindicators was directly influenced by soil chemical concentrations. By modeling density as an inhomogeneous Poisson point process, we found evidence for an inverse spatial relationship between Peromyscus density and soil mercury concentrations, but not other chemicals, such as polychlorinated biphenyls, at a site formerly occupied by a nuclear reactor. Although the coefficient point estimate supported Peromyscus density being lower where mercury concentrations were higher (β = –0.44), the 95% confidence interval overlapped zero, suggesting no effect was also compatible with our data. Estimated density from the most parsimonious model (2.88 mice/ha; 95% CI = 1.63–5.08), which did not support a density-chemical relationship, was within the range of reported densities for Peromyscus that did not inhabit contaminated sites elsewhere. Environmental pollution remains a global threat to biodiversity and ecosystem and human health, and our study provides an illustrative example of the utility of SCR models for investigating the effects that chemicals may have on wildlife bioindicator populations and communities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Low Can You Go? Using Synthetic 3D Imagery to Drastically Reduce Real-World Training Data for Object Detection

Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) currently provide state-of-the-art performance on image classification and object detection tasks, and there are many global security mission areas where such models could be extremely useful. Crucially, the success of these models is driven in large part by the widespread availability of high-quality open source data sets such as Image Net, Common Objects in Context (COCO), and KITTI, which contain millions of images with thousands of unique labels. However, global security relevant objects-of-interest can be difficult to obtain: relevant events are low frequency and high consequence; the content of relevant images is sensitive; and adversaries and proliferators seek to obscure their activities. For these cases where exemplar data is hard to come-by, even fine-tuning an existing model with available data can be effectively impossible. Recent work demonstrated that models can be trained using a combination of real-world and synthetic images generated from 3D representations; that such models can exceed the performance of models trained using real-world data alone; and that the generated images need not be perfectly realistic (Tremblay, et al., 2018). However, this approach still required hundreds to thousands of real-world images for training and fine tuning, which for sparse, global security-relevant datasets can be an unrealistic hurdle. In this research, we validate the performance and behavior of DCNN models as we drive the number of real-world images used for training object detection tasks down to a minimal set. We perform multiple experiments to identify the best approach to train DCNNs from an extremely small set of real-world images. In doing so, we: Develop state-of-the-art, parameterized 3D models based on real-world images and sample from their parameters to increase the variance in synthetic image training data; Use machine learning explainability techniques to highlight and correct through targeted training the biases that result from training using completely synthetic images; and Validate our results by comparing the performance of the models trained on synthetic data to one another, and to a control model created by fine-tuning an existing ImageNet-trained model with a limited number (hundreds) of real-world images.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Modeling and Nuclear Data Needs for Active Neutron Interrogation

This document is the primary deliverable for a scoping study proposed to DOE National Laboratory Announcement Number LAB 19-2114 in the NNSA research area. The study supports user applications employing active neutron interrogation by providing a science plan to improve the modeling capability and the nuclear data that radiation transport codes use. Users rely on the accuracy of the elastic scattering and non-elastic cross-sections spanning thermal energies to 14 MeV (and higher in some cases) for modeling the neutron transport through complex geometries of materials potentially composed of many elements. While the elastic scattering cross-section data are accepted for all commonly occurring elements, the non-elastic cross-section data and the associated emission data include reaction channels that require attention. The study focused on the non-elastic reactions that emit secondary, also known as prompt, gammas with the premise that many users would benefit from improved modeling of these reactions. Many users develop material assay technologies based upon gamma signatures from radiative capture, inelastic scattering, and reactions on low-Z isotopes emitting multiple particles, so the nuclear data gaps, modeling deficiencies, and recommendations for addressing the shortfalls were assessed for these reactions. Fission gammas were excluded from this study because there are other efforts underway to address known shortfalls. Follow-on efforts that successfully execute the recommendations will tangibly improve to the ability to model gamma signatures and backgrounds for user applications, such as controlled substance detection, oil-well logging, and space exploration.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Solution of ℓ 0 -Constrained Sparse Inverse Covariance Estimation Problems

The sparse inverse covariance matrix is used to model conditional dependencies between variables in a graphical model to fit a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Estimating the matrix from data are well known to be computationally expensive for large-scale problems. Sparsity is employed to handle noise in the data and to promote interpretability of a learning model. Although the use of a convex ℓ 1 regularizer to encourage sparsity is common practice, the combinatorial ℓ 0 penalty often has more favorable statistical properties. In this paper, we directly constrain sparsity by specifying a maximally allowable number of nonzeros, in other words, by imposing an ℓ 0 constraint. Here, we introduce an efficient approximate Newton algorithm using warm starts for solving the nonconvex ℓ 0 -constrained inverse covariance learning problem. Numerical experiments on standard data sets show that the performance of the proposed algorithm is competitive with state-of-the-art methods.

$\ell_0$-Constrained↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model Data Archive for Manuscript Titled "Evaluation of a Coupled Surface–Subsurface Hydrologic Model Using Dense Water‑Level Sensors in a Mixed Urban–Rural Watershed"

This archive provides scripts, input files, and datasets used for the implementation and evaluation of a fully coupled surface–subsurface hydrologic model in the Neches River Basin, southeast Texas. The study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) to simulate coupled surface–subsurface hydrologic processes over a mixed urban–rural watershed and evaluates model performance using a dense network of 136 in situ water-level sensors, nine U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges, and SSEBop-derived evapotranspiration estimates during the period October 2014–June 2024. The workflow is implemented primarily in Python 3 using the Watershed Workflow package. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed using open-source software such as Anaconda JupyterLab or Visual Studio Code. Other data files include TXT, CSV, XML, SHP, TIF, NetCDF, HDF5, and ExodusII files, which can be processed using the provided Python scripts. ATS input files are provided in XML format and can be edited using any commonly used text editor. This archive contains: *Scripts and input files used to generate the ATS model setup, including watershed discretization, mesh generation, parameter mapping, and model configuration. *Jupyter notebooks used for preprocessing observational data, evaluating streamflow, water levels, and evapotranspiration, computing performance metrics, and generating the figures presented in the manuscript. *ATS simulation outputs and processed observational datasets, including OneRain and DD6 water-level sensors, USGS streamflow observations, GIS data, and supporting spatial datasets used throughout the study.

Dense water-level sensor network↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying schools at high-risk for elevated lead in drinking water using only publicly available data

Estimating the risk of lead contamination of schools' drinking water at the State level is a complex, important, and unexplored challenge. Variable water quality among water systems and changes in water chemistry during distribution affect lead dissolution rates from pipes and fittings. In addition, the locations of lead-bearing plumbing materials are uncertain. We tested the capability of six machine learning models to predict the likelihood of lead contamination of drinking water at the schools' taps using only publicly available datasets. The predictive features used in the models correspond to those with a proven correlation to the dominant, but commonly unavailable, factors that govern lead leaching: the presence of lead-bearing plumbing materials and water quality conducive to lead corrosion. By combining water chemistry data from public reports, socioeconomic information from the US census, and spatial features using Geographic Information Systems, we trained and tested models to estimate the likelihood of lead contaminated tap water in over 8,000 schools across California and Massachusetts. Our best-performing model was a Random Forest, with a 10-fold cross validation score of 0.88 for Massachusetts and 0.78 for California using the average Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC AUC) metric. The model was then used to assign a lead leaching risk category to half of the schools across California (the other half was used for training). There was good agreement between the modeled risk categories and the actual lead leaching outcomes for every school; however, the model overestimated the lead leaching risk in up to 17% of the schools. This model is the first of its kind to offer a tool to predict the risk of lead leaching in schools at the State level. Further use of this model can help deploy limited resources more effectively to prevent childhood lead exposure from school drinking water.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗