Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Ce”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

User Centered, Application Independent Visualization of National Airspace Data

This paper describes an application independent software tool, IV4D, built to visualize animated and still 3D National Airspace System (NAS) data specifically for aeronautics engineers who research aggregate, as well as single, flight efficiencies and behavior. IV4D was origin ally developed in a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (A FRL) to support the visualization of air traffic data from the Airspa ce Concept Evaluation System (ACES) simulation program. The three mai n challenges tackled by IV4D developers were: 1) determining how to d istill multiple NASA data formats into a few minimal dataset types; 2 ) creating an environment, consisting of a user interface, heuristic algorithms, and retained metadata, that facilitates easy setup and fa st visualization; and 3) maximizing the user?s ability to utilize the extended range of visualization available with AFRL?s existing 3D te chnologies. IV4D is currently being used by air traffic management re searchers at NASA?s Ames and Langley Research Centers to support data visualizations.

Murphy, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Review of Hydrazine Sensors: The State of the Art

Several types of sensors have been developed over the past few years that quantify the vapor concentrations of the hydrazines. These sensor s are able to detect concentrations as low as 10 parts per billion (ppb) up to several parts per million (ppm). The scope of this review wi ll be focused on those sensors that are most current in the marketpla ce as either leak detectors or personnel monitors. Some technical information on the theory of operations of each hydrazine detector will a lso be included. The review will highlight current operations that utilize hydrazine sensors including the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), the United States Air Force (USAF) at Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS), USAF F-16 facilities. The orientation of the review will be towards giving users usable practical information on hydrazine sensors.

Meneghelli, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting entities, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT transitions real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is applying convection-allowing numerical models to predict mesoscale convective weather. In order to address this specific forecast challenge, SPoRT produces real-time mesoscale model forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that includes unique NASA products and capabilities. Currently, the SPoRT configuration of the WRF model (SPoRT-WRF) incorporates the 4-km Land Information System (LIS) land surface data, 1-km SPoRT sea surface temperature analysis and 1-km Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) analysis, and retrieved thermodynamic profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The LIS, SST, and GVF data are all integrated into the SPoRT-WRF through adjustments to the initial and boundary conditions, and the AIRS data are assimilated into a 9-hour SPoRT WRF forecast each day at 0900 UTC. This study dissects the overall impact of the NASA datasets and the individual surface and atmospheric component datasets on daily mesoscale forecasts. A case study covering the super tornado outbreak across the Ce ntral and Southeastern United States during 25-27 April 2011 is examined. Three different forecasts are analyzed including the SPoRT-WRF (NASA surface and atmospheric data), the SPoRT WRF without AIRS (NASA surface data only), and the operational National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF (control with no NASA data). The forecasts are compared qualitatively by examining simulated versus observed radar reflectivity. Differences between the simulated reflectivity are further investigated using convective parameters along with model soundings to determine the impacts of the various NASA datasets. Additionally, quantitative evaluation of select meteorological parameters is performed using the Meteorological Evaluation Tools model verification package to compare forecasts to in situ surface and upper air observations.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗
NASA NTRS2004

Nuclear Microprobe using Elastic Recoil Detection (ERD) for Hydrogen Profiling in High Temperature Protonic Conductors

The interaction between hydrogen and various high temperature protonic conductors (HTPC) has not been clearly understood due to poor densification and unreacted secondary phases. the melt-processing technique is used in producing fully dense simple SrCe(0.9)Y (0.10) O(3-delta) and complex Sr3Ca(1+x)Nb(2+x)O(9-delta) perovskites that can not be achieved by solid-state sintering. the possibilities of ion beam analysis have been investigated to quantify hydrogen distribution in HTPC perovskites subjected to water heat treatment. Nuclear microprobe technique is based on the interactions of a focused ion beam of MeV light ions (H-1, H-2, He-3, He-4,.) with the sample to be analyzed to determine local elemental concentrations at the cubic micrometer scale, the elastic recoil detection analysis technique (ERDA) has been carried out using He-4(+) microbeams and detecting the resulting recoil protons. Mappings of longitudinal sections of water treated SrCeO3 and Sr(Ca(1/3)Nb(2/3))O3 perovskites have been achieved, the water treatment strongly alters the surface of simple SrCe(0.9)Y(0.10)O(3-delta) perovskite. From Rutherford Back Scattering measurements (RBS), both Ce depletion and surface re-deposition is evidenced. the ERDA investigations on water treated Sr3Ca(1+x)Nb(2+x)O(9-delta) perovskite did not exhibit any spatial difference for the hydrogen incorporation from the surface to the centre. the amount of hydrogen incorporation for Sr3Ca(1+x)Nb(2+x)O(9-delta) was low and required further development of two less conventional techniques, ERDA in forward geometry and forward elastic diffusion H-1(p,p) H-1 with coincidence detection.

Berger, Pascal↗
NASA NTRS2011

Development of a Web-Based Visualization Platform for Climate Research Using Google Earth

Recently, it has become easier to access climate data from satellites, ground measurements, and models from various data centers, However, searching. accessing, and prc(essing heterogeneous data from different sources are very tim -consuming tasks. There is lack of a comprehensive visual platform to acquire distributed and heterogeneous scientific data and to render processed images from a single accessing point for climate studies. This paper. documents the design and implementation of a Web-based visual, interoperable, and scalable platform that is able to access climatological fields from models, satellites, and ground stations from a number of data sources using Google Earth (GE) as a common graphical interface. The development is based on the TCP/IP protocol and various data sharing open sources, such as OPeNDAP, GDS, Web Processing Service (WPS), and Web Mapping Service (WMS). The visualization capability of integrating various measurements into cE extends dramatically the awareness and visibility of scientific results. Using embedded geographic information in the GE, the designed system improves our understanding of the relationships of different elements in a four dimensional domain. The system enables easy and convenient synergistic research on a virtual platform for professionals and the general public, gr$tly advancing global data sharing and scientific research collaboration.

Sun, Xiaojuan↗
NASA NTRS2012

Challenges for Life Support Systems in Space Environments, Including Food Production

Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) refer to the technologies needed to sustain human life in space environments. Histor ically these technologies have focused on providing a breathable atmo sphere, clean water, food, managing wastes, and the associated monitoring capabilities. Depending on the space agency or program, ELCSS has sometimes expanded to include other aspects of managing space enviro nments, such as thermal control, radiation protection, fire detection I suppression, and habitat design. Other times, testing and providing these latter technologies have been associated with the vehicle engi neering. The choice of ECLSS technologies is typically driven by the mission profile and their associated costs and reliabilities. These co sts are largely defined by the mass, volume, power, and crew time req uirements. For missions close to Earth, e.g., low-Earth orbit flights, stowage and resupply of food, some 0 2, and some water are often the most cost effective option. But as missions venture further into spa ce, e.g., transit missions to Mars or asteroids, or surface missions to Moon or Mars, the supply line economics change and the need to clos e the loop on life support consumables increases. These are often ref erred to as closed loop or regenerative life support systems. Regardless of the technologies, the systems must be capable of operating in a space environment, which could include micro to fractional g setting s, high radiation levels, and tightly closed atmospheres, including perhaps reduced cabin pressures. Food production using photosynthetic o rganisms such as plants by nature also provides atmospheric regenerat ion (e.g., CO2 removal and reduction, and 0 2 production), yet to date such "bioregenerative" technologies have not been used due largely t o the high power requirements for lighting. A likely first step in te sting bioregenerative capabilities will involve production of small a mounts of fresh foods to supplement to crew's diet. As humans venture further into space, regenerative life support technologies will becom e more important, and gathering accurate data on their performance an d reliabilities will require long lead times. As we learn more about sustainable living in space, we almost certainly learn more about sust ainable living on Earth.

Wheeler, Raymond M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

pH Responsive Microcapsules for Corrosion Control

The best coatings for corrosion protection provide not only barriers to the environment, but also a controlled release of a corrosion inhibitor, as demanded by the presence of corrosion or mechanical damage. NASA has developed pH sensitive microcapsules (patent pending) that can release their core contents when corrosion starts. The objectives of the research presented here were to encapsulate non-toxic corrosion inhibitors, to incorporate the encapsulated inhibitors into paint formulations, and to test the ability of the paints to control corrosion. Results showed that the encapsulated corrosion inhibitors, specifically Ce(NO3)3 , are effective to control corrosion over long periods of time when incorporated at relatively high pigment volume concentrations into a paint formulation.

Calle, Luz Marina↗
NASA NTRS2014

Space Archeology Overview at Gordion: 2010 to 2012

In fiscal years 2010, 2011, and 2012, Compton Tucker was the principal investigator of a NASA Space Archaeology project that worked at Gordion, in Central Turkey. Tucker was assisted by an excellent team of co-workers including Joseph Nigro and Daniel Slayback of Science Systems Applications Incorporated, Jenny Strum of the University of New Mexico, and Karina Yager, a post doctoral fellow at NASA/GSFC. This report summaries their research activities at Gordion for the field seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012. Because of the possible use of our findings at Gordion for tomb robbing there and/or the encouragement of potential tomb robbers using our geophysical survey methods to locate areas to loot, we have not published any of our survey results in the open literature nor placed any of these results on any web sites. These 2010- 2012 survey results remain in the confidential archives of the University of Pennsylvania's University Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology, the group that leads the Gordion Excavation and Research Project. Excavations are planned for 2013 at Gordion, including several that will be based upon the research results in this report. The site of Gordion in central Turkey, famous as the home of King Midas, whose father's intricately tied knot gave the site its name, also served as the center of the Phrygian kingdom that ruled much of Central Anatolia in Asia Minor during the early first millennium B.C. Gordion has been a University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology excavation project since 1950, yet the site is incompletely published despite six decades of research. The primary obstacles related to the site and its preservation were two problems that NASA technology could address: (1) critical survey errors in the hundreds of maps and plans produced by the earlier excavators, most of which used mutually incompatible geospatial referencing systems, that prevented any systematic understanding of the site; and (2) agricultural encroachment upon the site that was compromising its archaeological integrity. Our NASA Space Archaeology proposal was written to address both of these problems. When we started working at Gordion in 2010, we added a third objective, (3) ground penetrating radar and magnetic geophysical surveys of threatened areas. The first objective our NASA Space Archaeology Project was to provide the University of Pennsylvania's Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology a system to rectify and incorporate all existing survey data from Gordion, including previous aerial photographs of the site, detailed site surveys, maps, and excavation plans, into a common mapping system. This was accomplished with a Geographic Information System (GIS) based upon a 60 cm Quickbird satellite image ortho-rectified using Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) 30 m digital elevation data and tied to a known datum at Gordion. This enabled the first accurate, multi-layer plan of this complex site, occupied almost continuously from the Bronze Age to the 1st millennium CE, and made possible Gordion's three-dimensional development for the first time.

Gordion↗
NASA NTRS2013

Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5

We present a description of the theoretical framework and best practice for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (8501850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitationtemperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

paleoclimate↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Forcing Reconstructions for Use in PMIP Simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.0)

Simulations of climate over the Last Millennium (850-1850 CE) have been incorporated into the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The drivers of climate over this period are chiefly orbital, solar, volcanic, changes in land use/land cover and some variation in greenhouse gas levels. While some of these effects can be easily defined, the reconstructions of solar, volcanic and land use-related forcing are more uncertain. We describe here the approach taken in defining the scenarios used in PMIP3, document the forcing reconstructions and discuss likely implications.

volcanoes↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Compact Mobile Ozone Lidar for Atmospheric Ozone and Aerosol Profiling

A compact mobile differential absorption lidar (DIAL) system has been developed at NASA Langley Research Center to provide ozone, aerosol and cloud atmospheric measurements in a mobile trailer for ground-based atmospheric ozone air quality campaigns. This lidar is integrated into the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) currently made up of four other ozone lidars across the country. The lidar system consists of a UV and green laser transmitter, a telescope and an optical signal receiver with associated Licel photon counting and analog channels. The laser transmitter consist of a Q-switched Nd:YLF inter-cavity doubled laser pumping a Ce:LiCAF tunable UV laser with all the associated power and lidar control support units on a single system rack. The system has been configured to enable mobile operation from a trailer and was deployed to Denver, CO July 15-August 15, 2014 supporting the DISCOVER-AQ campaign. Ozone curtain plots and the resulting science are presented.

De Young, Russell↗
NASA NTRS2013

Fortaleza Station Report for 2012

This is a brief report about the activities carried out at the Fortaleza geodetic VLBI station (ROEN: R´adio Observat´orio Espacial do Nordeste), located in Eus´ebio, CE, Brazil, during the period from January until December 2012. The observing activities were resumed in May after the major maintenance that comprised the azimuth bearing replacement. The total observational experiments consisted of 103 VLBI sessions and continuous GPS monitoring recordings.

Kaufmann, Pierre↗
NASA NTRS2015

Filled Co (sub X) Ni (sub 4-x) Sb (sub 12-y) Sn (sub Y) Skutterudites: Processing and Thermoelectric Properties

Skutterudites have proven to be a useful thermoelectric system as a result of their enhanced figure of merit (ZT1), cheap material cost, favorable mechanical properties, and good thermal stability. The majority of skutterudite interest in recent years has been focused on binary skutterudites like CoSb3 or CoAs3. Binary skutterudites are often double and triple filled, with a range of elements from the lanthanide series, in order to reduce the lattice component of thermal conductivity. Ternary and quaternary skutterudites, such as Co4Ge6Se6 or Ni4Sb8Sn4, provide additional paths to tune the electronic structure. The thermal conductivity can further be improved in these complex skutterudites by the introduction of fillers. The Co (sub X) Ni (sub 4-x) Sb (sub 12-y) Sn (sub Y) system has been investigated as both a p- and n-type thermoelectric material, and is stable up to 200 degrees Centigrade. Yb, Ce, and Dy fillers have been introduced into the skutterudite to study the influence of both the type and the quantity of fillers on processing conditions and thermoelectric properties. The system was processed through a multi-step technique that includes solidification, mechano-chemical alloying, and hot pressing which will be discussed along with thermoelectric transport properties.

Thermoelectricity↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Solid State Ultraviolet Lasers Based on Cerium-Doped LiCaAIF(sub 6) Crystal Resonator

We report the first demonstration of a UV laser using a high-Q whispering gallery mode (WGM) resonator of Ce+: LiCaAlF6. We show that WGM resonators from LiCaAlF6 can achieve a Q of 2.6 x 10(sup 7) at UV. We demonstrated a UV laser at 290 nm with a pulsed pump laser at 266 nm. The experiments showed the low pump threshold intensity of 7.5 x 10(sup 9) W/m(sup 2) and slope efficiency of 25%. We have also observed lasing delay dynamics. These results are consistent with our modeling and theoretical estimates, and pave the way for a low threshold cw UV laser using WGM resonator cavity.

Whispering Gallery Mode Resonators↗
NASA NTRS2014

Stardust Interstellar Preliminary Examination V: XRF Analyses of Interstellar Dust Candidates at ESRF ID13

Here, we report analyses by synchrotron X-ray fluorescence microscopy of the elemental composition of eight candidate impact features extracted from the Stardust Interstellar Dust Collector (SIDC). Six of the features were unambiguous tracks, and two were crater-like features. Five of the tracks are so-called midnight tracks that is, they had trajectories consistent with an origin either in the interstellar dust stream or as secondaries from impacts on the Sample Return Capsule (SRC). In a companion paper reporting synchrotron X-ray diffraction analyses of ISPE candidates, we show that two of these particles contain natural crystalline materials: the terminal particle of track 30contains olivine and spinel, and the terminal particle of track 34 contains olivine. Here, we show that the terminal particle of track 30, Orion, shows elemental abundances, normalized to Fe, that are close to CI values, and a complex, fine-grained structure. The terminal particle of track 34, Hylabrook, shows abundances that deviate strongly from CI, but shows little fine structure and is nearly homogenous. The terminal particles of other midnight tracks, 29 and 37, had heavy element abundances below detection threshold. A third, track28, showed a composition inconsistent with an extraterrestrial origin, but also inconsistent with known spacecraft materials. A sixth track, with a trajectory consistent with secondary ejecta from an impact on one of the spacecraft solar panels, contains abundant Ce and Zn. This is consistent with the known composition of the glass covering the solar panel. Neither crater-like feature is likely to be associated with extraterrestrial materials. We also analyzed blank aerogel samples to characterize background and variability between aerogel tiles. We found significant differences in contamination levels and compositions, emphasizing the need for local background subtraction for accurate quantification.

Stardust↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850 CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium. An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records. Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the "amount effect". During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger than the rather weak and spatially less coherent precipitation signal, complicating the isotopic response to changes in the hydrologic cycle.

Colose, Christopher M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Flight Testing a Real-Time Hazard Detection System for Safe Lunar Landing on the Rocket-Powered Morpheus Vehicle

The Hazard Detection System (HDS) is a component of the ALHAT (Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology) sensor suite, which together provide a lander Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) system with the relevant measurements necessary to enable safe precision landing under any lighting conditions. The HDS consists of a stand-alone compute element (CE), an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), and a gimbaled flash LIDAR sensor that are used, in real-time, to generate a Digital Elevation Map (DEM) of the landing terrain, detect candidate safe landing sites for the vehicle through Hazard Detection (HD), and generate hazard-relative navigation (HRN) measurements used for safe precision landing. Following an extensive ground and helicopter test campaign, ALHAT was integrated onto the Morpheus rocket-powered terrestrial test vehicle in March 2014. Morpheus and ALHAT then performed five successful free flights at the simulated lunar hazard field constructed at the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center, for the first time testing the full system on a lunar-like approach geometry in a relevant dynamic environment. During these flights, the HDS successfully generated DEMs, correctly identified safe landing sites and provided HRN measurements to the vehicle, marking the first autonomous landing of a NASA rocket-powered vehicle in hazardous terrain. This paper provides a brief overview of the HDS architecture and describes its in-flight performance.

Avoidance↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of the Soil Moisture Balance During the Late Pre-Hispanic, Colonial, and Modern Eras

Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5deg latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34degN and 75-120degW using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Ano de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense "All Mexico" droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.

El Nino↗