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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

An Ecosystem Simulation Model for Methane Production and Emission from Wetlands

Previous experimental studies suggest that methane emission from wetland is influenced by multiple interactive pathways of gas production and transport through soil and sediment layers to the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to evaluate a new simulation model of methane production and emission in wetland soils that was developed initially to help identify key processes that regulate methanogenesis and net flux of CH4 to the air, but which is designed ultimately for regional simulation using remotely sensed inputs for land cover characteristics. The foundation for these computer simulations is based on a well-documented model (CASA) of ecosystem production and carbon cycling in the terrestrial blaspheme. Modifications to represent flooded wetland soils and anaerobic decomposition include three new sub-models for: (1) layered soil temperature and water table depth (WTD) as a function of daily climate drivers, (2) CH4 production within the anoxic soil layer as a function of WTD and CO2 production under poorly drained conditions, and (3) CH4 gaseous transport pathways (molecular diffusion, ebullition, and plant vascular transport) as a function of WTD and ecosystem type. The model was applied and tested using climate and ecological data to characterize tundra wetland sites near Fairbanks, Alaska studied previously by Whalen and Reeburgh. Comparison of model predictions to measurements of soil temperature and thaw depth, water-table depth, and CH4 emissions over a two year period suggest that inter-site differences in soil physical conditions and methane fluxes could be reproduced accurately for selected periods. Day-to-day comparison of predicted emissions to measured CH4 flux rates reveals good agreement during the early part of the thaw season, but the model tends to underestimate production of CH4 during the months of July and August in both test years. Important seasonal effects, including that of falling WTD during these periods, are apparently overlooked in the model formulation. Nevertheless, reasonably close agreement was achieved between the model's mean daily and seasonal estimates of CH4 flux and observed emission rates for northern wetland ecosystems. Several features of the model are identified as crucial to more accurate prediction of wetland methane emission, including the capacity to incorporate influences of localized topographic and hydrologic features on site-specific soil temperature and WTD dynamics, and mechanistic simulation of methane emission transport pathways from within the soil profile.

Potter, C. S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Observational constraints on the global atmospheric CO2 budget

Observed atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and data on the partial pressures of CO2 in surface ocean waters are combined to identify globally significant sources and sinks of CO2. The atmospheric data are compared with boundary layer concentrations calculated with the transport fields generated by a general circulation model (GCM) for specified source-sink distributions. In the model the observed north-south atmospheric concentration gradient can be maintained only if sinks for CO2 are greater in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. The observed differences between the partial pressure of CO2 in the surface waters of the Northern Hemisphere and the atmosphere are too small for the oceans to be the major sink of fossil fuel CO2. Therefore, a large amount of the CO2 is apparently absorbed on the continents by terrestrial ecosystems.

Tans, Pieter P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigation of Coupled Land-Atmosphere Carbon Dynamics and Seasonal Carbon Forecast Skill

In this talk, I will present recent efforts to explore coupled land-atmosphere carbon dynamics and carbon cycle predictability. First, the impact of a regional drought on land and atmospheric carbon was studied by imposing an idealized spring drought in coupled land‐atmosphere ensemble simulations. Through drought-induced impact on remote meteorology, the drought alters land’s productivity not only in the drought area but also in the adjacent areas. The atmospheric CO2 anomalies extend to an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of drought‐induced carbon anomalies. Increase in column‐averaged monthly CO2 by the imposed drought is at the edge of the uncertainty from single soundings of current greenhouse gas observing satellites. Secondly, the seasonal carbon forecast skill was explored using NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble forecast and a terrestrial biosphere model. The result demonstrates an ability to accurately predict spring-summer carbon uptake at multi-month leads in the Northern Hemisphere mid- and high latitude land. The skill appears to be achieved by accurate forecasts of snow removal timing as well as proper initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Additionally, I will briefly discuss other ongoing research activities to improve hydrometeorological prediction by integrating biogeochemical processes, to evaluate forecast skill of wildfire, and to apply subseasonal forecasts to water resources management.

Eunjee Lee↗
DOE OSTI2022

Offshore Oil and Gas Infrastructure Reuse for CCS: Opportunities and Challenges in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

The United States Gulf of Mexico has historically been a significant oil and gas producing region and continues to produce hydrocarbons today. As such, significant investments have been made to install oil and gas infrastructure such as pipelines, platforms, and wells. As these assets reach the end of their useful life or production associated with the assets is curtailed, the assets become a liability for both the owner/operators and the U.S. and state governments responsible for regulating the assets. There are costs and risks associated with safely decommissioning the assets, and in some cases, the assets may be abandoned (e.g., the owner is no longer a going concern). In parallel, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has developed in the United States and interest and incentives for CCS projects have accelerated in recent years, with many public announcements of CCS projects in development in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico region. The region is particularly well-suited to CCS due to the high density of industry on the coastline (i.e., CO 2 sources) and favorable geology in the near-offshore region. CCS also requires the use of many of the same assets required for oil and gas production (pipelines, platforms, wells) and the oil and gas industry has direct experience with CO 2 transport and injection (i.e., EOR). Therefore, the combination of existing infrastructure in close proximity to potential CCS project sites appears to provide a potential “win-win” solution for re-use of existing oil and gas assets. This paper presents a high-level evaluation of oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico with the goals of identifying the scale of the opportunity (e.g., how much existing infrastructure is realistically re-usable), identifying gaps in knowledge/policy/information required to evaluate existing infrastructure for re-use, and proposing key actions that could be pursued to further the assessment of existing infrastructure re-use for CCS.

Infrastructure, reuse, re-purpose, oil and gas, pi↗
NASA NTRS1994

Trace gas emissions to the atmosphere by biomass burning in the west African savannas

Savanna fires and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) detection and estimating burned area using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer_(AVHRR) reflectance data are investigated in this two part research project. The first part involves carbon dioxide flux estimates and a three-dimensional transport model to quantify the effect of north African savanna fires on atmospheric CO2 concentration, including CO2 spatial and temporal variability patterns and their significance to global emissions. The second article describes two methods used to determine burned area from AVHRR data. The article discusses the relationship between the percentage of burned area and AVHRR channel 2 reflectance (the linear method) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (the nonlinear method). A comparative performance analysis of each method is described.

Frouin, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Electrolytic O2 Recovery from Metabolic CO2 for Advanced Closed Loop Life Support Systems in Extraterrestrial Human Missions

The International Space Station (ISS) is currently equipped with a complex, heavy, and power consuming system that recovers approximately 50% of O2 from metabolic CO2. Future long duration human missions to the Moon and Mars will necessitate a sustainable and highly efficient metabolic oxygen recovery system capable of yielding a minimum of 75% O2 recovery. A Macrofluidic Electrochemical Reactor (MFECR) technology development effort is currently underway at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to significantly increase current metabolic O2 recovery efficiency, expand mission sustainability, and reduce complexity of the system. The novel design combines CO2 conversion to O2 along with C2H4 as byproduct and water electrolysis (currently conducted in two separate units) into a single compact unit that runs at standard conditions and is theoretically capable of generating O2 with a theoretical maximum metabolic CO2 conversion of 73% while consuming less than metabolic water. This paper presents a comprehensive multi-physic 3D model developed at MSFC on CO2 conversion to O2 and C2H4 at standard conditions via MFECR. The 3D spatial domain of the model is a replica of the actual MFECR’s 3D drawing generated for the MFECR fabrication and operated to recover O2 from CO2 yielding C2H4 as byproduct. Electrochemical (EC) physics that includes EC multicomponent reaction mechanisms, mass transport, and electrical current density distributions is coupled in the model with all the other physics phenomena involved in the MFECR’s process, such as two-phase flow, free and porous fluid regimes, multicomponent mass transfer, heat transfer, and DC electrical current generation along with Joule heating effect. The EC reaction sections of the MFECR consists of two porous gas diffusion electrodes (GDE) and an electrolyte serpentine channel sandwiched in the middle. The CO2 feeds the cathode serpentine channel and part of the O2 product is fed back to the anode serpentine chamber. An alkaline solution feeds the electrolyte serpentine chamber wetting the GDEs of both, the anode and cathode allowing the OH- ionic transport between them. The EC reactions in the cathode’s GDE yield C2H4 from CO2 and H2 from water while the EC reaction in the anode’s GDE yields O2. The authors will present in this paper the validation of the model using experimental data and the utilization of the validated model in building a reliable simulator that will not only assist the authors on the MFECR design but also the optimization of its operation in the ISS and future spatial human missions.

Jesus A Dominguez↗
NASA NTRS2009

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Atmospheric CO2 as Observed from In-Situ Measurements over North America during NASA Field Campaigns (2004-2008)

Regional-scale measurements were made over the eastern United States (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment - North America (INTEX-NA), summer 2004); Mexico (Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO), March 2006); the eastern North Pacific and Alaska (INTEX-B May 2006); and the Canadian Arctic (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS), spring and summer 2008). For these field campaigns, instrumentation for the in situ measurement of CO2 was integrated on the NASA DC-8 research aircraft providing high-resolution (1 second) data traceable to the WMO CO2 mole fraction scale. These observations provide unique and definitive data sets via their intermediate-scale coverage and frequent vertical profiles (0.1 - 12 km) for examining the variability CO2 exhibits above the Earth s surface. A bottom-up anthropogenic CO2 emissions inventory (1deg 1deg) and processing methodology has also been developed for North America in support of these airborne science missions. In this presentation, the spatio-temporal distributions of CO2 and CO column values derived from the campaign measurements will be examined in conjunction with the emissions inventory and transport histories to aid in the interpretation of the CO2 observations.

Choi, Yonghoon↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adverse Effect of Polyelectrolyte Complexation on the CO 2 Permeability of Polyvinylamine Copolymers

Polyvinylamine (PVAm) is one of the most studied polymers for facilitated transport membranes (FTMs) in CO 2 separation applications. In this study, poly(N-vinylformamide) (PNVf) was hydrolyzed to prepare a range of PNVf-PVAm copolymer compositions and the effect of PVAm fraction on CO 2 permeability and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity these polymers examined. The most permeable film was the polymer containing 52 mol% PVAm units with a CO 2 permeability of 353 Barrer and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity of 96, when tested at 60°C with humidified 14/86 CO 2 /N 2 mixed gas. Despite containing a higher loading of amines to act as CO 2 carriers, higher PVAm contents yielded significantly lower CO 2 permeability, without a loss of selectivity. This trend was not due to polymer crystallization since none of the PVAm films exhibited crystallinity in X-ray diffraction analysis. The loss of gas permeability at high PVAm content was instead due to strong polyelectrolyte interactions between polymer chains formed when PVAm reacts with CO 2 . Since only the PVAm units are ionized upon reaction with CO 2 , with the PNVf units remaining neutral, the density of these ionic effects increased as PVAm content increased, leading to increased resistance to gas permeation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Coupled Land-Atmosphere Carbon Dynamics and Seasonal Carbon Forecast Skill

Terrestrial biosphere is an integral part of the climate system and plays a vital role in controlling the dynamics of the Earth’s carbon cycle. In this talk, I will present recent efforts to explore coupled land-atmosphere carbon dynamics and seasonal carbon cycle predictability. First, by imposing an idealized spring drought in coupled land‐atmosphere ensemble simulations, we investigated the impact of a regional drought on land and atmospheric carbon. Through the drought-induced impact on remote meteorology, the capability of the land’s carbon uptake is altered in both the drought area and the adjacent areas. The induced anomalies of the atmospheric CO2 extend to an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of the drought impact on carbon anomalies. Increase in column‐averaged monthly CO2 is at the edge of the uncertainty from single soundings of current greenhouse gas observing satellites. Secondly, the seasonal carbon forecast skill was explored using NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble forecast and terrestrial biosphere model. The result demonstrates an ability to accurately predict spring-summer carbon uptake in the Northern Hemisphere mid and high latitude land at multi-month leads. The prediction skill appears to be achieved by accurate forecasts of snow removal timing, which provides a latent predictability to the forecast system, and by proper initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Additionally, I will briefly discuss other ongoing research to improve hydrometeorological prediction by integrating biogeochemical processes, to evaluate forecast skill of wildfire carbon, and to apply subseasonal forecasts to water resources management.

Eunjee Lee↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Regional CO2 Observing System Simulation Experiment Using ASCENDS Observations and WRF-STILT Footprints

Knowledge of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 is hampered by sparse measurements. The recent advent of satellite measurements of CO2 concentrations is increasing the density of measurements, and the future mission ASCENDS (Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons) will provide even greater coverage and precision. Lagrangian atmospheric transport models run backward in time can quantify surface influences ("footprints") of diverse measurement platforms and are particularly well suited for inverse estimation of regional surface CO2 fluxes at high resolution based on satellite observations. We utilize the STILT Lagrangian particle dispersion model, driven by WRF meteorological fields at 40-km resolution, in a Bayesian synthesis inversion approach to quantify the ability of ASCENDS column CO2 observations to constrain fluxes at high resolution. This study focuses on land-based biospheric fluxes, whose uncertainties are especially large, in a domain encompassing North America. We present results based on realistic input fields for 2007. Pseudo-observation random errors are estimated from backscatter and optical depth measured by the CALIPSO satellite. We estimate a priori flux uncertainties based on output from the CASA-GFED (v.3) biosphere model and make simple assumptions about spatial and temporal error correlations. WRF-STILT footprints are convolved with candidate vertical weighting functions for ASCENDS. We find that at a horizontal flux resolution of 1 degree x 1 degree, ASCENDS observations are potentially able to reduce average weekly flux uncertainties by 0-8% in July, and 0-0.5% in January (assuming an error of 0.5 ppm at the Railroad Valley reference site). Aggregated to coarser resolutions, e.g. 5 degrees x 5 degrees, the uncertainty reductions are larger and more similar to those estimated in previous satellite data observing system simulation experiments.

Wang, James S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Modeling of CO2 Sequestration within a Five-Spot Well Pattern in the Morrow B Sandstone of the Farnsworth Hydrocarbon Field: Comparison of the TOUGHREACT, STOMP-EOR, and GEM Simulators

The objectives of this study were (1) to assess the fate and impact of CO2 injected into the Morrow B Sandstone in the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) through numerical non-isothermal reactive transport modeling, and (2) to compare the performance of three major reactive solute transport simulators, TOUGHREACT, STOMP-EOR, and GEM, under the same input conditions. The models were based on a quarter of a five-spot well pattern where CO2 was injected on a water-alternating-gas schedule for the first 25 years of the 1000 year simulation. The reservoir pore fluid consisted of water with or without petroleum. The results of the models have numerous broad similarities, such as the pattern of reservoir cooling caused by the injected fluids, a large initial pH drop followed by gradual pH neutralization, the long-term persistence of an immiscible CO2 gas phase, the continuous dissolution of calcite, very small decreases in porosity, and the increasing importance over time of carbonate mineral CO2 sequestration. The models differed in their predicted fluid pressure evolutions; amounts of mineral precipitation and dissolution; and distribution of CO2 among immiscible gas, petroleum, formation water, and carbonate minerals. The results of the study show the usefulness of numerical simulations in identifying broad patterns of behavior associated with CO2 injection, but also point to significant uncertainties in the numerical values of many model output parameters.

STOMP↗
DOE OSTI2025

Screening analysis of enhanced weathering of igneous rocks and industrial waste materials

Enhanced weathering (EW) is a promising emerging carbon dioxide removal approach that involves harnessing and accelerating the natural weathering process by which atmospheric CO2 passively reacts with exposed alkaline minerals and is removed from the atmosphere. This manuscript reports on a screening level techno-economic analysis of EW. Two primary cases utilizing different sources of alkaline material are considered: (1) utilizing naturally occurring mined igneous rocks, and (2) utilizing industrial waste materials. The modeled EW process encompasses material purchase, comminution, transport, distribution of material on farmland, and measurement, reporting and verification of CO2 removal. Detailed sensitivities are performed to highlight promising scenarios for application. The analysis highlights that utilizing materials with high weathering potential in suitable locations may result in relatively low levelized cost of captured (less than $100 per total tonnes of CO2 captured from the atmosphere). NETL is publishing a detailed and transparent report titled “Enhanced Weathering: Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Screening Analysis” that includes more detail on the screening level techno-economic analysis and includes a life cycle analysis.

Leptinsky, Sarah [NETL Site Support Contractor, Na↗
NASA NTRS2007

Transport in the Subtropical Lowermost Stratosphere during CRYSTAL-FACE

We use in situ measurements of water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), and total reactive nitrogen (NO(y)) obtained during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 to study summertime transport in the subtropical lowermost stratosphere. We use an objective methodology to distinguish the latitudinal origin of the sampled air masses despite the influence of convection, and we calculate backward trajectories to elucidate their recent geographical history. The methodology consists of exploring the statistical behavior of the data by performing multivariate clustering and agglomerative hierarchical clustering calculations, and projecting cluster groups onto principal component space to identify air masses of like composition and hence presumed origin. The statistically derived cluster groups are then examined in physical space using tracer-tracer correlation plots. Interpretation of the principal component analysis suggests that the variability in the data is accounted for primarily by the mean age of air in the stratosphere, followed by the age of the convective influence, and lastly by the extent of convective influence, potentially related to the latitude of convective injection [Dessler and Sherwuud, 2004]. We find that high-latitude stratospheric air is the dominant source region during the beginning of the campaign while tropical air is the dominant source region during the rest of the campaign. Influence of convection from both local and non-local events is frequently observed. The identification of air mass origin is confirmed with backward trajectories, and the behavior of the trajectories is associated with the North American monsoon circulation.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗
NASA NTRS1975

The NATA code: Theory and analysis, volume 1

A computer program for calculating quasi-one-dimensional gas flow in axisymmetric and two-dimensional nozzles and rectangular channels is presented. Flow is assumed to start from a state of thermochemical equilibrium at a high temperature in an upstream reservoir. The program provides solutions based on frozen chemistry, chemical equilibrium, and nonequilibrium flow with finite reaction rates. Electronic nonequilibrium effects can be included using a two-temperature model. An approximate laminar boundary layer calculation is given for the shear and heat flux on the nozzle wall. Boundary layer displacement effects on the inviscid flow are considered also. Chemical equilibrium and transport property calculations are provided by subroutines. The code contains precoded thermochemical, chemical kinetic, and transport cross section data for high-temperature air, CO2-N2-Ar mixtures, helium, and argon. It provides calculations of the stagnation conditions on axisymmetric or two-dimensional models, and of the conditions on the flat surface of a blunt wedge. The primary purpose of the code is to describe the flow conditions and test conditions in electric arc heated wind tunnels.

Bade, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The role of atmospheric heat transport in the seasonal carbon dioxide cycle

We have carried out numerical experiments with a general circulations model (GCM) and energy balance model of the martian atmosphere to define the importance of heat transported to the polar regions in determining the amount of CO2 condensed on the surface during the fall and winter seasons and the amount sublimated during the spring and summer seasons. In so doing, we performed both sensitivity experiments, in which the dust opacity was varied over the full range of its observed values, and annual simulations, in which the dust opacity varied continuously with seasonal data, in accord with measurements taken at the Viking landers. Dust opacity represents the key variable for determining the contribution of atmospheric heat advection to the energy budget in the polar regions. The amount of heat advected to the winter polar regions increases monotonically as the dust opacity at low and middle latitudes increases. However, the increase is sharpest between optical depths of 0 and 1 tends to level off at still higher optical depths. Heat advection is more important at times of CO2 condensation than CO2 sublimation, since the temperature gradients are much steeper in the winter hemisphere than in the summer hemisphere. Because dust opacity is much higher during northern winter than during southern winter, atmospheric heat advection reduces the amount of CO2 that condenses in the north by a much larger factor than it does in the south.

Pollack, James B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Green Aviation: Review, Aspirations, and Operational Improvements

Air traffic affects the environment locally, regionally and globally. Estimates show that aviation is responsible for 13% of transportation-related fossil fuel consumption and 2% of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Although there is considerable decline in air traffic due to COVID pandemic, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) expects domestic air traffic to grow at an annual rate of 2.0 % over the next 20 years. Global air traffic is expected to grow more rapidly than domestic air traffic at an annual rate of 4.8% from 2011 to 2030. The desire to accommodate growing air traffic needs while limiting the impact of aviation on the environment has led to research in green aviation with the goals of better scientific understanding, utilization of alternative fuels, introduction of new aircraft technology, and rapid operational changes. Greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic affect the climate in different and uncertain ways. Understanding the changes requires a hierarchy of models to deal with multiple disciplines, time scales ranging from few minutes to few hundred years and uncertainties in modeling parameters affecting both science and policy. This talk reviews earlier work at Ames on the modeling approach and an integrated capability to design aircraft operations based on a trade-off between fuel consumption, environmental goals and stakeholder values.

Green Aviation↗
NASA NTRS2009

Evaluating the Environmental Performance of the U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System

The environmental impacts of several possible U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation scenarios have been quantitatively evaluated for noise, air-quality, fuel-efficiency, and CO2 impacts. Three principal findings have emerged. (1) 2025 traffic levels about 30% higher than 2006 are obtained by increasing traffic according to FAA projections while also limiting traffic at each airport using reasonable ratios of demand to capacity. NextGen operational capabilities alone enable attainment of an additional 10-15% more flights beyond that 2025 baseline level with negligible additional noise, air-quality, and fuel-efficiency impacts. (2) The addition of advanced engine and airframe technologies provides substantial additional reductions in noise and air-quality impacts, and further improves fuel efficiency. 2025 environmental goals based on projected system-wide improvement rates of about 1% per year for noise and fuel-efficiency (an air-quality goal is not yet formulated) are achieved using this new vehicle technology. (3) Overall air-transport "product", as measured by total flown distance or total payload distance, increases by about 50% relative to 2006, but total fuel consumption and CO2 production increase by only about 40% using NextGen operational capabilities. With the addition of advanced engine/airframe technologies, the increase in total fuel consumption and CO2 production can be reduced to about 30%.

Environmental impact↗
DOE OSTI2020

Environmental impact of national and subnational carbon policies in China based on a multi-regional dynamic CGE model

Carbon policies are important not only for mitigating global climate change, but also for controlling local and regional air pollution. The large regional disparities in economic development and air pollution across China calls for regionally differentiated policies. Previous studies have not systematically investigated the environmental impacts of regional carbon policies in China covering different spatial scales. This study constructs a multi-regional dynamic computable general quilibrium (CGE) model covering 30 provinces of China to assess the impacts of national and subnational carbon polices on CO2 emissions and co-emitted air pollutants from 2020 to 2050. We consider one national carbon policy which aims to achieve China’s 2030 national CO2 abatement target, as well as three regional policies with the same policy stringency as the national one but only applied to eastern China (EP), the Jiangsu-Shanghai-Zhejiang area (JSZP), and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area (BTHP), respectively. We find that regional policies (EP, JSZP, and BTHP) are as effective in reducing CO2 emissions in their targeted regions as the national policy. However, they lead to an increase in CO2 emissions in untargeted regions (the so-called “emissions leakage”). The CO2 leakage rates, which depend on the policy spatial coverage, are 4%, 13%, and 65% for EP, JSZP, and BTHP, respectively, in 2050. Compared with CO2, changes in air pollutant emissions, including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), exhibit a similar pattern under all policy scenarios, but the magnitude of change is significantly smaller. Transportation, thermal power, and some energy intensive industries are the three largest contributors to CO2 and air pollutant emission reductions. Our results suggest that regional carbon policy is effective in reducing CO2 and air pollutant emissions in the targeted regions, and extending the spatial coverage or increasing policy stringency can largely inhibit emissions leakage.

Zhang, Wenwen↗