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At least 271 records · Page 15

A National Infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence on the Grid (NI4AI) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Electric utilities have traditionally taken a very pragmatic yet myopic approach with grid sensors and the resulting collected data. Sensors are purchased and deployed to solve a specific, known problem that has risen to sufficient awareness as to justify the effort of deploying sensors and the needed capital investment. This sensor data flows into proprietary software packages with limited functionality intended only to address the initial problem. This approach aligns with the financial incentives of the utility to deploy capital into fixed hardware assets for which the corporations earn a rate of return. This mentality stands in stark contrast to the big data revolution that started nearly 25 years ago with the rise of Google. In this worldview, data is a fundamental business asset; successful organizations collect, store, explore, merge, and exploit as much data as possible to not only solve problems well understood today but also to tackle new problems that will inevitably rise tomorrow. The ARPA-E Open Innovation 2018 project entitled A National Infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence on the Grid or NI4AI for short was designed to demonstrate this alternative paradigm for using data. To do this, the project was composed of three key thrust areas. The first major component deployed a variety of high-frequency grid sensors and captured terabytes of both wide-scale and localized grid measurements, generating high-value datasets for grid research and algorithm development. The second aspect made available PingThings’ PredictiveGridTM, a horizontally scalable, cloud-based data management and AI platform built for time series data to explore and exploit the collected data. Finally, the project fostered a diverse and open research community composed of experts from numerous fields through focused educational content, code sharing, and data science competitions. Shifting away from “single use” sensors and closed data silos within electric utilities is a major benefit to the public at large. This legacy approach to data is incredibly (1) capital intensive (new sensors must be deployed for each new problem and problems tend to arise continuously) and (2) painfully slow (new problems must be identified first and then new sensors must be deployed to collect data to begin to address the issue). The transition to a carbon neutral grid requires a massive transformation of the existing grid infrastructure and will continue to challenge the legacy grid in unforeseen ways. The only way to make the energy transition cost effective is for utilities to abandon this dated data paradigm and adopt more contemporary approaches. NI4AI has shown that it is technically possible and economically feasible to ingest, explore, and exploit grid data collected from even very high frequency sensing, such as continuous point on wave sensors collecting measurements 10,000 times a second. In fact, the PredictiveGrid platform used is commercially available and deployed at several utilities in the United States. Project accomplishments were numerous and included (1) making available a state of the art time series platform to the community, (2) collecting over 520 streams of time series data from grid sensors totaling over 1 trillion grid measurements, and (3) developing and nurturing a community within the industry focused on the use of data to create value for utilities and, ultimately, end consumers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Economic Evaluation of a Coupled Nuclear Power Plant and Hydrogen Production Facility: A Case Study

This study optimized the design sizes and operation of a power-to-hydrogen-to-power integrated energy system to allow a baseload power plant to operate flexibly in the energy market. In collaboration with a utility industry partner, the system, consisting of an electrolyzer, compressors, storage tank, and fuel cell, was optimized under conditions specific to the proposed project at the site of a nuclear power plant. The Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES) maximized net present value by optimizing sizing of components and dispatch decisions. Revenues included sale of electricity, capacity payments typical of the New York Independent System Operator, and the section 45V hydrogen production tax credit of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (the tax credit was assumed to be available to legacy plants in the absence of clear guidance at present). Under default assumptions which excluded many capital expenditures, the base case optimized solution had a net present value of $\$$1.4 million over a 30 year lifetime, with a 0.365 MW fuel cell operating nearly continuously and 85% of revenues supplied by the hydrogen production tax credit (which was counted as a revenue regardless of profit, thus assuming credit monetization or offset of taxes within the larger firm was possible in all years). Beyond the base case, a sensitivity study elucidated drivers of the economics as capacity payment rate and hydrogen production tax credit rate vary. Additional sensitivity studies also extended results to variation of other, previously fixed parameters, including the fuel cell capital cost, and to imposition of further constraints. Optimization was also repeated for the default assumptions but recognizing tax credits upon use of hydrogen rather than upon its production, producing no change in the optimal solution. Most notably, capacity payments above $\$$15/kW-month drove optimal fuel cells multiple times larger than those with the default estimated capacity payment of $\$$2.5/kW-month (approaching 11 vs. 0.365 MW), and these larger fuel cells operated rarely (capacity factors of ~0.03). Furthermore, when the hydrogen production tax credit was provided for only 10 years, under the specific assumptions of this study (e.g., neither site preparation costs nor electrolyzer capital cost counted), the optimal solution avoided economic loss by ceasing system operation after the 10th year. Viewed broadly, this study demonstrated the capabilities of DISPATCHES, which can be user-adapted to serve other industrial case studies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Logging Crew Attributes by Region in the Southeast USA

Urbanization, shrinking markets, and reduced forestry investment may affect harvesting efficiency in regions of the US South. To monitor these conditions, logging businesses have been tracked by surveys conducted by universities and trade associations. This project used a sampling approach coordinated with FIA utilization studies to sample logging crews based on a harvesting location. The approach was used to develop relationships among firm attributes and site attributes in six southeastern states (AL, GA, FL, NC, SC, and VA) from 2011 to 2018. The data included harvest attributes (location, harvest size and stand type) and logging firm attributes (production, crew labor, crew number, the number of machines by type, and machine age). For crew capital value, an equation was developed for this study using machine number and average machine age. The data from logging crews on 419 harvests were analyzed by region, harvest size, and stand type. Mean values for crew labor ranged from 3.1 to 7.1 workers. The average capital value per crew ranged from $\$220,000$ to $\$524,000$ per crew in the Coastal Plain with a narrower range in the Piedmont. In the Coastal Plain, higher productivity was detected for larger harvests and pine versus hardwood and mixed stands; however, in the Piedmont those trends were less obvious. Ratio of feller-bunchers, skidders and loaders were mostly 1:1:1 or 1:2:1 with 41% and 24% of samples, respectively. There were notable trends among Coastal Plain loggers regarding capital value and productivity with evidence supported by a production function. The differences in Piedmont (e.g., ownership size, market access, terrain, population density, etc.) may combine to limit daily production and labor productivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cost and size estimates for an electrochemical bulk energy storage concept

Preliminary capital cost and size estimates were made for an electrochemical bulk energy storage concept. The electrochemical system considered was an electrically rechargeable flow cell with a redox couple. On the basis of preliminary capital cost estimates, size estimates, and several other important considerations, the redox-flow-cell system emerges as having great promise as a bulk energy storage system for power load leveling. The size of this system would be less than 2 percent of that of a comparable pumped hydroelectric plant. The capital cost of a 10-megawatt, 60- and 85-megawatt-hour redox system is estimated to be $190 to $330 per kilowatt. The other important features of the redox system contributing to its load leveling application are its low adverse environmental impact, its high efficiency, its apparent absence of electrochemically-related cycle life limitations, and its fast response.

Warshay, M.↗

Analysis of GaAs and Si solar energy hybrid systems

Various silicon hybrid systems are modeled and compared with a gallium arsenide hybrid system. The hybrid systems modeled produce electric power and also thermal power which can be used for heating or air conditioning. Various performance indices are defined and used to compare the system performance: capital cost per electric power out; capital cost per total power out; capital cost per electric power plus mechanical power; annual cost per annual electric energy; and annual cost per annual electric energy plus annual mechanical work. These performance indices indicate that concentrator hybrid systems can be cost effective when compared with present day energy costs.

Heinbockel, J. H.↗

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) concept definition study. Volume 7: SPS program plan and economic analysis

The economic and programmatic requirements for a recommended SPS solar photovoltaic baseline concept were analyzed. Costs are determined for the DDT&E; initial capital investment (covers initial procurement and emplacement of each SPS plant and equipment); replacement capital investment (capital asset replacement over the SPS operating life); operations and maintenance (expendables, minor maintenance, repair crews); and taxes/insurance.

Hanley, G.↗

Market assessment of photovoltaic power systems for agricultural applications worldwide

Agricultural sector PV market assessments conducted in the Phillippines, Nigeria, Mexico, Morocco, and Colombia are extrapolated worldwide. The types of applications evaluated are those requiring less than 15 kW of power and operate in a stand alone mode. The major conclusions were as follows: PV will be competitive in applications requiring 2 to 3 kW of power prior to 1983; by 1986 PV system competitiveness will extend to applications requiring 4 to 6 kW of power, due to capital constraints, the private sector market may be restricted to applications requiring less than about 2 kW of power; the ultimate purchase of larger systems will be governments, either through direct purchase or loans from development banks. Though fragmented, a significant agriculture sector market for PV exists; however, the market for PV in telecommunications, signalling, rural services, and TV will be larger. Major market related factors influencing the potential for U.S. PV Sales are: lack of awareness; high first costs; shortage of long term capital; competition from German, French and Japanese companies who have government support; and low fuel prices in capital surplus countries. Strategies that may aid in overcoming some of these problems are: setting up of a trade association aimed at overcoming problems due to lack of awareness, innovative financing schemes such as lease arrangements, and designing products to match current user needs as opposed to attempting to change consumer behavior.

Cabraal, A.↗

Comparative economics of space resource utilization

Physical economic factors such as mass payback ratio, total payback ratio, and capital payback time are discussed and used to compare the economics of using resources from the Moon, Mars and its moons, and near Earth asteroids to serve certain near term markets such as propellant in low Earth orbit or launched mass reduction for lunar and Martian exploration. Methods for accounting for the time cost of money in simple figures of merit such as MPRs are explored and applied to comparisons such as those between lunar, Martian, and asteroidal resources. Methods for trading off capital and operating costs to compare schemes with substantially different capital to operating cost ratio are presented and discussed. Areas where further research or engineering would be extremely useful in reducing economic uncertainty are identified, as are areas where economic merit is highly sensitive to engineering performance - as well as areas where such sensitivity is surprisingly low.

Cutler, Andrew Hall↗

Leasing as a Source of Finance by the Major US Airlines: Hidden Debt and its Changes Over Time

This paper updates prior research on aircraft leasing and contrasts the findings of current data with prior results. Usage of leases by air carriers is a means to lessen the impact of financial obligations from fleet purchases. The study revisits two previous studies, one in 1969 and one in 1991, which is analyzed the incidence of leases by major air carriers. The current study updates these past studies to consider air carriers current usage of leases. Additionally, since operating leases are not reflected in the balance sheets of airlines, operating lease information was capitalized using a present value of future operating lease payments. Then, financial debt burden ratios were computed to determine the impact from the capitalization of lease information. The usage of operating leases increased, significantly from the first study to the 1991 study, and this trend continues. The incidence of leasing, the classification of leases as operating, and the percentage of operating leases to total fleet have all increased for the majority of the airlines reviewed. When operating lease data were capitalized, debt ratios weakened, providing further evidence of deterioration in the financial health of air carriers.

Gritta, Richard D.↗

D-Side: A Facility and Workforce Planning Group Multi-criteria Decision Support System for Johnson Space Center

"To understand and protect our home planet, to explore the universe and search for life, and to inspire the next generation of explorers" is NASA's mission. The Systems Management Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is searching for methods to effectively manage the Center's resources to meet NASA's mission. D-Side is a group multi-criteria decision support system (GMDSS) developed to support facility decisions at JSC. D-Side uses a series of sequential and structured processes to plot facilities in a three-dimensional (3-D) graph on the basis of each facility alignment with NASA's mission and goals, the extent to which other facilities are dependent on the facility, and the dollar value of capital investments that have been postponed at the facility relative to the facility replacement value. A similarity factor rank orders facilities based on their Euclidean distance from Ideal and Nadir points. These similarity factors are then used to allocate capital improvement resources across facilities. We also present a parallel model that can be used to support decisions concerning allocation of human resources investments across workforce units. Finally, we present results from a pilot study where 12 experienced facility managers from NASA used D-Side and the organization's current approach to rank order and allocate funds for capital improvement across 20 facilities. Users evaluated D-Side favorably in terms of ease of use, the quality of the decision-making process, decision quality, and overall value-added. Their evaluations of D-Side were significantly more favorable than their evaluations of the current approach. Keywords: NASA, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Decision Support System, AHP, Euclidean Distance, 3-D Modeling, Facility Planning, Workforce Planning.

Tavana, Madjid↗

Cloud-Computing and Machine Learning in Support of Country-Level Land Cover and Ecosystem Extent Mapping in Liberia and Gabon

Liberia and Gabon joined the Gaborone Declaration for Sustainability in Africa (GDSA), established in 2012, with the goal of incorporating the value of nature intonational decision making by estimating the multiple services obtained from ecosystems using the natural capital accounting framework. In this study, we produced 30-m resolution 10 classes land cover maps for the 2015 epoch for Liberia and Gabon using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform to support the ongoing natural capital accounting efforts in these nations. We pro-pose an integrated method of pixel-based classification using Landsat 8 data, the Random Forest(RF) classifier and ancillary data to produce high quality land cover products to fit abroad range of applications, including natural capital accounting. Our approach focuses on a pre-classification filtering (Masking Phase) based on spectral signature and ancillary data to reduce the number of pixels prone to be misclassified; therefore, increasing the quality of the final product. The proposed approach yields an overall accuracy of 83% and 81% for Liberia and Gabon, respectively, out performing prior land cover products for these countries in both thematic content and accuracy. Our approach, while relatively simple and highly replicable, was able to produce high quality land cover products to fill an observational gap in up to date land cover data at national scale for Liberia and Gabon.

Celio de Sousa↗

Crowds bringing power, payoff to entrepreneurs

Monthly economic diversity column for Tri-City Herald; excerpt here: As I walk through my garden, marveling at the fresh treats in store and wondering what I’ll do when 47 bell peppers ripen at once, I also wistfully think of the one crop that continues to elude even the greenest of thumbs. The money tree. It’s fun to imagine the possibilities a money tree would offer, branch after branch reaching out to support one’s life pursuits. Go ahead, take a minute... Back in reality, I realize how valuable this concept could be to many entrepreneurs out there in possession of the next game-changing idea, without the capital to move forward. Enter Kickstarter.com, a highly successful example in a growing genre of websites devoted to crowdfunding. In the past few years, crowdfunding has become a disruptive element in the startup process, enabling inventors and promoters of numerous causes to generate capital through a consensus of virtual supporters, a money giving tree of sorts, without sacrificing equity in their projects or circling the globe chasing venture capital and angel money.

Madison, Alison L.↗

Economics of Future Growth in Photovoltaics Manufacturing; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

The past decade’s record of growth in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry indicates that global investment in manufacturing capacity for photovoltaic modules tends to increase in proportion to the size of the industry. The slope of this proportionality determines how fast the industry will grow in the future. Two key parameters determine this slope. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity-normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units $/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity-normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units $/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a small improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Any accompanying improvement in CapDR will accelerate that growth.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

2018 Research Highlight in Manufacturing: Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines

Currently, geothermal project developers customize the size of the power plant to fit the resource being developed. The turbine is designed and sized to optimize efficiency and resource utilization for electricity production; most often, other power plant components are then chosen to complement the turbine design. These custom turbine designs demand one-off manufacturing processes, which result in higher manufacturing setup costs, longer lead-times, and higher capital costs overall in comparison to larger-volume line manufacturing processes. In contrast, turbines produced in standard increments, manufactured in larger volumes, could result in lower costs per turbine. In this study, we developed a manufacturing cost model to identify requirements for equipment, facilities, raw materials, and labor. Then we used discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to calculate the minimum sustainable price (MSP). We analyzed three different cases 1) 1 MWe geothermal ORC turboexpander 2) 5 MWe ORC turboexpander and 3) 20 MWe geothermal steam turbine, and calculated the cost of manufacturing the major components, such as the impellers/blades, shaft/rotor, nozzles, inlet guide lanes, disks, and casings. The results showed that MSP could highly vary between 893 $/kW and 30 $/kW based on turbine size, standardization and volume of manufacturing. The analysis also showed that the economy of scale applies both to the size of the turbine and the number manufactured in a single run. As an example, the unit price of a 5 MW standard design turbine could be 150 $/W cheaper than the custom design. Sensitivity analysis indicated that these savings come largely from reduced labor costs for design and engineering and manufacturing setup. In addition to manufacturing cost savings, there is a delivery time saving up to 10 months, which could have a positive effect to construction financing operation time. Another advantage of these standard turbines is their adaptability to different geothermal systems by operating at off-design conditions. We also modeled off-design turbine efficiencies within the commercially-favorable operating range of a standard ORC compared to custom-designed ORC equipment. Than we used these performance calculations and power output capacities in a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of plant operations and financing, thereby creating representative techno economic models of a total geothermal power plant. I this scope we used NREL's System Advisor model (SAM) and performed DCF analysis of standard and custom design turbines using results from IPSEpro over range of temperatures of interest. In this scope 63 different off-design cases were analyzed. This helped us to answer the question; 'Can today`s capital cost savings compensate the future revenue losses due to lower electricity generation?' The results showed that, the net capital cost savings for the modeled 5 MW case study may reach up to +$1,298,672. Also, the difference between NPV of standard design and custom design turbine could reach up to +$733,940. To sum up, when all the things mentioned above are taken into consideration, it can be said that, the standard turbines are competitive over a wide range of temperatures and flow rates and the give positive NPV differences for certain cases near their design point.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Applying Value at Risk Analysis towards Energy Efficiency Investments

Value at Risk (VaR) is a measure of risk for potential losses within a portfolio of investments. Investments in energy efficiency in a manufacturing environment compete in terms of payback period, ease of investment, and transaction costs with other investments (production, safety, engineering, etc.). Because manufacturers have limited amounts of capital to allocate, investments in productivity tend to be prioritized over energy efficiency projects that offer similar paybacks. Value at Risk (VaR) can be used to quantify how risk-weighted expenditures change over time. Energy efficiency investments are often believed to offer relatively stable payoffs compared to changes in production and other assets, particularly when evaluated using methodologies such as simple payback. Incorporating methodologies such as VaR can provide a stronger business case for energy efficiency investments by quantifying value beyond what is captured in other Return on Investment calculations.In this paper we outline a methodology for applying VaR in the context of the variety of investments made by manufacturing organizations. Additionally, we profile the stability of energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) investments compared to other types of investments made in manufacturing. By applying VaR to these investments, energy managers can better translate the financial benefits of energy-related capital projects in a way that is more compelling to Corporate Finance and Treasury departments. This common language also allows Corporate Finance and Treasury departments to support large, strategic deployments of capital for such projects based on a targeted objective – the management of financial risk for the organization’s shareholders.

Levine, Eli↗

Numerical Model Development of a Variable-Geometry Attenuator Wave Energy Converter: Preprint

Because the wave energy industry is still in its infancy, an optimal design for wave energy converters (WECs) has yet to be established; more work is needed to explore various cost reduction pathways. The primary cost-reduction pathway considered for this work is the optimization of the geometric profile on an attenuator WEC to maximize power production while, at the same time, minimizing capital expenditures through the use of variable-geometry modules. In this investigation, the variable geometry modules consist of inflatable bags placed on either side of a base central steel cylinder that would be inflated in low moderate sea states to maximize power capture and then deflated in moderate-extreme sea states to minimize wave loading. The numerical model and simulation of the attenuator WEC were developed and completed using WEC-Sim, which is an open-source code that is appropriate for use in evaluating the dynamic response of the different WEC models in operational seas. The power production estimates were obtained from the Wave Energy Prize (WEP) sea states, which are representative of U. S. deployment sites, to calculate the average climate capture width that is used in the WEP ACE calculation. Preliminary capital expenditure costs were obtained assuming the base central steel cylinder mass was equal to the fluid displaced mass, minus the mass of the variable-geometry bags. The additional weight required to offset the additional buoyancy from the variable-geometry bags was assumed to come from the addition of seawater ballast. The variable-geometry attenuator model was found to have a similar power capture efficiency as a fixed-body model, but is expected to have a lower characteristic capital expenditure given its more streamlined profile, which demonstrates that variable-geometry modules may provide a realistic cost-reduction pathway to help design a more cost-competitive WEC.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

Development and Application of a Risk Analysis Toolkit for Plant Resources Optimization

This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture) provided system/component health/cost data. This project development lives in cooperation with the Plant Health Management (PHM) project which focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate most relevant sources of risk. This year’s activities for the RIAM project focused on the continuation of schedule optimization algorithms developed in FY19. While in FY19 we focused on both deterministic and stochastic capital budgeting methods, in FY20 we moved forward by implementing two versions of schedule optimization methods. The first one reformulates the capital budgeting problem in a distributionally robust form which allows the user to rely on data directly rather than proposing a distribution from the data itself. The second version reformulates the capital budgeting explicitly using risk measures as variables to maximize/minimize. Lastly, we focused on the development of methods designed to identify the optimal maintenance posture based on the Pareto Frontier analysis. Rather than performing a tradeoff analysis (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), the Pareto Frontier analysis performs a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and have the analyst perform the task of imposing desired value and cost constraints). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effect of Power Plant Capacity on the CAPEX, OPEX, and LCOC of the CO2 Capture Process in Pre-Combustion Applications - Abstract

Aspen Plus v8.8 was used to simulate the pre-combustion CO2 capture process from a typical fuel gas stream at different power plant capacities ranging from 54.3 to 543 MW. Polyethylene glycol polydimethyl siloxane (PEGPDMS-1) was used as a physical solvent to capture CO2 in a countercurrent packed-bed absorber containing a structured packing (Mellapak 250Y). The process pressure was 51.4 bar and the solvent temperature was varied from 10 to 40 <sup>o</sup>C. The internal diameter of the absorber ranged from 1.9 to 7 m and the packing height from 13.9 to 45.5 m. The physico-chemical properties were obtained and modeled using the Perturbed Chain-Statistical Associating Fluid Theory (PC-SAFT) Equation-of-State (EOS).<p> Four process constraints were imposed in Aspen Plus: (1) no flooding in the absorber, (2) the absorber height to diameter ratio (H/D) is greater than or equal 6, (3) at least 90 mol% of the CO2 capture from the fuel gas stream, and (4) the CO2 stream destined to sequestration sites should contain less than 600 ppm water concentration and less than or equal 0.5 mol% of fuel gases (H2, CO, CH4). The plant lifetime was assumed to be 30 years with an annual discount rate of 10% and an annual maintenance cost of 4% of the total capital expenses.</p><p> Seven power plants with different capacities were used and for each plant, the corresponding CO2 capture process was simulated. The absorber flooding was checked using the generalized pressure drop correlation (GPDC) by Leva [1] and the capital expenditure (CAPEX), operating expenditure (OPEX), and levelized costs per ton of CO2 captured (LCOC) were calculated [2-5]. Normalized by the largest power plant capacity (543 MW) used in the simulation, the results indicated that the capital and operating expenditures increased, however, the LCOC decreased with increasing plant capacity. This behavior was due to the increased annual tonnage of the CO2 captured with plant capacity as shown in Figure 1. The calculated CAPEX, OPEX, LCOC and the tonnage of CO2 captured for the 543 MW power plant were about 52 MM$, 22 MM$/year, 7.46 $/ton and 4 MM ton/year.</p>

Ashkanani, Husain↗