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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Reconstructing parton distribution functions from Ioffe time data: from Bayesian methods to neural networks

The computation of the parton distribution functions (PDF) or distribution amplitudes (DA) of hadrons from first principles lattice QCD constitutes a central open problem in high energy nuclear physics. In this study, we present and evaluate the efficiency of several numerical methods, well established in the study of inverse problems, to reconstruct the full x-dependence of PDFs. Our starting point are the so called Ioffe time PDFs, which are accessible from Euclidean time simulations in conjunction with a matching procedure. Using realistic mock data tests, we find that the ill-posed incomplete Fourier transform underlying the reconstruction requires careful regularization, for which both the Bayesian approach as well as neural networks are efficient and flexible choices.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Quarkonium in-medium properties from realistic lattice NRQCD

Here, we present the final results of our high statistics study on the properties of bottomonium and charmonium at finite temperature. We focus on the temperature range around the crossover transition 150 ≤ T ≤ 410MeV, relevant for current heavy ion collision experiments. The QCD medium degrees of freedom, which consist of dynamical u,d, and s quarks and gluons are captured by realistic state-of-the art (m π ≈ 161MeV) lattice QCD simulations of the HotQCD collaboration. For the heavy quarks we deploy the non-relativistic effective field theory of QCD, NRQCD. The in-medium properties of quarkonium are deduced from their spectral functions, which are reconstructed using improved and novel Bayesian approaches. Through a systematic analysis we shed light on the origin of the discrepancies in melting temperatures previously reported in the literature, showing that they are owed to underestimated methods uncertainties of the deployed spectral reconstructions. Our simulations corroborate a picture of sequential in-medium modification, ordered according to the vacuum binding energy of the states. As a central quantitative result, our study reveals how the mass of the heavy quarkonium ground state reduces as temperature increases. The observed spectral modifications are interpreted in the light of, and compared to previous studies based on the complex lattice potential for heavy quarkonium. Furthermore for the first time we provide a robust picture of in-medium heavy quarkonium modification in the quark-gluon plasma consistent among different non-relativistic methods. We also critically discuss the perspectives for improving on these results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian View on the Dr. Evil Scenario

Abstract In Defeating Dr. Evil with Self-Locating Belief , Adam Elga proposes and defends a principle of indifference for self-locating beliefs: if an individual is confident that his world contains more than one individual who is in a state subjectively indistinguishable from his own, then he should assign equal credences to the hypotheses that he is any one of these individuals. Through a sequence of thought experiments, Elga in effect claims that he can derive the credence function that should apply in such situations, thus justifying his principle of indifference. Here we argue, using a Bayesian approach, that Elga’s reasoning is circular: in analyzing the third of his thought experiments, he uses an assertion that is justifiable only if one assumes, from the start, the principle of indifference that he is attempting to justify. We agree with Elga that the assumption of equal credences is a very reasonable principle, in the absence of any reason to assign unequal credences, but we do not agree that the equality of credences can be so derived.

Azhar, Feraz↗
DOE OSTI2018

The evens and odds of CMB anomalies

The lack of power of large-angle CMB anisotropies is known to increase its statistical significance at higher Galactic latitudes, where a string-inspired pre-inflationary scale can also be detected. Considering the Planck 2015 data, and relying largely on a Bayesian approach, we show that the effect is mostly driven by the even - harmonic multipoles with , which appear sizably suppressed in a way that is robust with respect to Galactic masking, along with the corresponding detections of . On the other hand, the first odd - multipoles are only suppressed at high Galactic latitudes. We investigate this behavior in different sky masks, constraining through even and odd multipoles, and we elaborate on possible implications. We include low- polarization data which, despite being noise-limited, help in attaining confidence levels of about 3 in the detection of . We also show by direct forecasts that a future all-sky -mode cosmic-variance-limited polarization survey may push the constraining power for beyond 5 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Associations between environmental quality and adult asthma prevalence in medical claims data

Highlights: • Asthma is a complex condition affecting 7.4% of U.S. adults. • Asthma may be driven by multiple exposures operating in tandem. • The Environmental Quality Index measures 5 environmental domains simultaneously. • Worsening overall environmental quality is associated with increasing asthma. • Patterns vary by domain (air, water, land, built, sociodemograhic) and rurality. As of 2014, approximately 7.4% of U.S. adults had current asthma. The etiology of asthma is complex, involving genetics, behavior, and environmental factors. To explore the association between cumulative environmental quality and asthma prevalence in U.S. adults, we linked the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Quality Index (EQI) to the MarketScan{sup ®} Commercial Claims and Encounters Database. The EQI is a summary measure of five environmental domains (air, water, land, built, sociodemographic). We defined asthma as having at least 2 claims during the study period, 2003–2013. We used a Bayesian approach with non-informative priors, implementing mixed-effects regression modeling with a Poisson link function. Fixed effects variables were EQI, sex, race, and age. Random effects were counties. We modeled quintiles of the EQI comparing higher quintiles (worse quality) to lowest quintile (best quality) to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) and credible intervals (CIs). We estimated associations using the cumulative EQI and domain-specific EQIs; we assessed U.S. overall (non-stratified) as well as stratified by rural-urban continuum codes (RUCC) to assess rural/urban heterogeneity. Among the 71,577,118 U.S. adults with medical claims who could be geocoded to county of residence, 1,147,564 (1.6%) met the asthma definition. Worse environmental quality was associated with increased asthma prevalence using the non-RUCC-stratified cumulative EQI, comparing the worst to best EQI quintile (PR:1.27; 95% CI: 1.21, 1.34). Patterns varied among different EQI domains, as well as by rural/urban status. Poor environmental quality may increase asthma prevalence, but domain-specific drivers may operate differently depending on rural/urban status.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Development of an exchange–correlation functional with uncertainty quantification capabilities for density functional theory

This paper presents the development of a new exchange–correlation functional from the point of view of machine learning. Using atomization energies of solids and small molecules, we train a linear model for the exchange enhancement factor using a Bayesian approach which allows for the quantification of uncertainties in the predictions. A relevance vector machine is used to automatically select the most relevant terms of the model. We then test this model on atomization energies and also on bulk properties. The average model provides a mean absolute error of only 0.116 eV for the test points of the G2/97 set but a larger 0.314 eV for the test solids. In terms of bulk properties, the prediction for transition metals and monovalent semiconductors has a very low test error. However, as expected, predictions for types of materials not represented in the training set such as ionic solids show much larger errors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. Here, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. Finally, the results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Application of Bayes' theorem for pulse shape discrimination

A Bayesian approach is proposed for pulse shape discrimination of photons and neutrons in liquid organic scinitillators. Instead of drawing a decision boundary, each pulse is assigned a photon or neutron confidence probability. In addition, this allows for photon and neutron classification on an event-by-event basis. The sum of those confidence probabilities is used to estimate the number of photon and neutron instances in the data. An iterative scheme, similar to an expectation-maximization algorithm for Gaussian mixtures, is used to infer the ratio of photons-to-neutrons in each measurement. Therefore, the probability space adapts to data with varying photon-to-neutron ratios. A time-correlated measurement of Am–Be and separate measurements of 137 Cs, 60 Co and 232 Th photon sources were used to construct libraries of neutrons and photons. These libraries were then used to produce synthetic data sets with varying ratios of photons-to-neutrons. Probability weighted method that we implemented was found to maintain neutron acceptance rate of up to 90% up to photon-to-neutron ratio of 2000, and performed 9% better than the decision boundary approach. Furthermore, the iterative approach appropriately changed the probability space with an increasing number of photons which kept the neutron population estimate from unrealistically increasing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Confidence-weighted integration of human and machine judgments for superior decision-making

Large language models (LLMs) can surpass humans in certain forecasting tasks. What role does this leave for humans in the overall decision process? One possibility is that humans, despite performing worse than LLMs, can still add value when teamed with them. A human and machine team can surpass each individual teammate when team members’ confidence is well calibrated and team members diverge in which tasks they find difficult (i.e., calibration and diversity are needed). We simplified and extended a Bayesian approach to combining judgments using a logistic regression framework that integrates confidence-weighted judgments for any number of team members. Using this straightforward method, we demonstrated its effectiveness in both image classification and neuroscience forecasting tasks. Combining human judgments with one or more machines consistently improved overall team performance. Our hope is that this simple and effective strategy for integrating the judgments of humans and machines will lead to productive collaborations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pervaporative Dehydration of 2,3-Butanediol by Dense Poly(vinylidene fluoride) Hollow Fiber Membranes: Parameter Estimation, Process Design, and Technoeconomic Evaluation under Uncertainty

Pervaporation, combined with other separation processes, can effectively remove water from fermentation product streams, making it highly suitable for purifying alcohols like 2,3-butanediol (BDO). In this study, a dense poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) hollow fiber membrane module prototype was fabricated for BDO dehydration, achieving >0.2 LMH total flux and >95% BDO rejection. With a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, Bayesian inference was used to quantify the uncertainty of the permeance parameters. A membrane cascade model was developed to scale up a process that purifies a preconcentrated BDO feed (70 wt %) to high purity (90 wt %). Through propagation of the uncertainty of the parameters and sensitivity analyses of the process variables, a cascade design was recommended. Despite data and model limitations, the framework enabled a reliable system analysis and economic evaluation, validated through tight confidence intervals in key process metrics, establishing the foundation for future applications of Bayesian methods in membrane-based processes.

Animal feed↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Model for HOPE Mass Spectrometers on Van Allen Probes

Space instruments rely heavily on modeling to predict and understand the instrument response, enabling a determination of the capabilities and resolution. The Bayesian approach provides a framework to incorporate prior knowledge and propagate uncertainty to predict the instrument response. We present an empirical Bayes model for the end-to-end performance of the Helium, Oxygen, Proton, and Electron mass spectrometers aboard the Van Allen Probes mission. In this model, we use a combination of external modeling, laboratory calibration, and expert opinion to construct the time-of-flight spectra and demonstrate good agreement with on-orbit data. The empirical Bayes model is applied to explore doubly charged ions and carbon, nitrogen, oxygen discrimination during the Van Allen Probes mission.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Expectation-propagation for weak radionuclide identification at radiation portal monitors

We propose a sparsity-promoting Bayesian algorithm capable of identifying radionuclide signatures from weak sources in the presence of a high radiation background. The proposed method is relevant to radiation identification for security applications. In such scenarios, the background typically consists of terrestrial, cosmic, and cosmogenic radiation that may cause false positive responses. We evaluate the new Bayesian approach using gamma-ray data and are able to identify weapons-grade plutonium, masked by naturally-occurring radioactive material (NORM), in a measurement time of a few seconds. We demonstrate this identification capability using organic scintillators (stilbene crystals and EJ-309 liquid scintillators), which do not provide direct, high-resolution, source spectroscopic information. Compared to the EJ-309 detector, the stilbene-based detector exhibits a lower identification error, on average, owing to its better energy resolution. Organic scintillators are used within radiation portal monitors to detect gamma rays emitted from conveyances crossing ports of entry. The described method is therefore applicable to radiation portal monitors deployed in the field and could improve their threat discrimination capability by minimizing “nuisance” alarms produced either by NORM-bearing materials found in shipped cargoes, such as ceramics and fertilizers, or radionuclides in recently treated nuclear medicine patients.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2020

TDCOSMO - IV. Hierarchical time-delay cosmography – joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via strong gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant value of H0 = 73.3−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars (constant mass-to-light ratio) plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in H0. We quantify any potential effect of the MST with a flexible family of mass models, which directly encodes it, and they are hence maximally degenerate with H0. Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the MST is only constrained by stellar kinematics. The approach is validated on mock lenses, which are generated from hydrodynamic simulations. We first applied the inference to the TDCOSMO sample of seven lenses, six of which are from H0LiCOW, and measured H0 = 74.5−6.1+5.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. Secondly, in order to further constrain the deflector mass density profiles, we added imaging and spectroscopy for a set of 33 strong gravitational lenses from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample. For nine of the 33 SLAC lenses, we used resolved kinematics to constrain the stellar anisotropy. From the joint hierarchical analysis of the TDCOSMO+SLACS sample, we measured H0 = 67.4−3.2+4.1 km s−1 Mpc−1. This measurement assumes that the TDCOSMO and SLACS galaxies are drawn from the same parent population. The blind H0LiCOW, TDCOSMO-only and TDCOSMO+SLACS analyses are in mutual statistical agreement. The TDCOSMO+SLACS analysis prefers marginally shallower mass profiles than H0LiCOW or TDCOSMO-only. Without relying on the form of the mass density profile used by H0LiCOW, we achieve a ∼5% measurement of H0. While our new hierarchical analysis does not statistically invalidate the mass profile assumptions by H0LiCOW – and thus the H0 measurement relying on them – it demonstrates the importance of understanding the mass density profile of elliptical galaxies. The uncertainties on H0 derived in this paper can be reduced by physical or observational priors on the form of the mass profile, or by additional data.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / galaxies: general / galaxies: kinematics and dynamics / distance scale / cosmological parameters / cosmology: observations⋆ The full analysis is available at https://github.com/TDCOSMO/hierarchy_analysis_2020_public.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK XI. Bayesian CMB analysis with sample-based end-to-end error propagation

We present posterior sample-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints from Planck LFI and WMAP observations as derived through global end-to-end Bayesian processing within the BeyondPlanck framework. We first use these samples to study correlations between CMB, foreground, and instrumental parameters, and we identify a particularly strong degeneracy between CMB temperature fluctuations and free-free emission on intermediate angular scales (400 ≲ ℓ ≲ 600), which is mitigated through model reduction, masking, and resampling. We compare our posterior-based CMB results with previous Planck products, and find generally good agreement, although with notably higher noise due to our exclusion of HFI data. We find a best-fit CMB dipole amplitude of 3362.7 ± 1.4 µK, in excellent agreement with previous Planck results. The quoted dipole uncertainty is derived directly from the sampled posterior distribution, and does not involve any ad hoc contributions for Planck instrumental systematic effects. Similarly, we find a temperature quadrupole amplitude of ${σ}_{2}^{TT}$ = 229 ± 97 µK 2 , which is in good agreement with previous results in terms of the amplitude, but the uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the naive diagonal Fisher uncertainty. Relatedly, we find lower evidence for a possible alignment between the quadrupole and octopole than previously reported due to a much larger scatter in the individual quadrupole coefficients, caused both by marginalizing over a more complete set of systematic effects, but also by our more conservative analysis mask required to mitigate the free-free degeneracy. For higher multipoles, we find that the angular temperature power spectrum is generally in good agreement with both Planck and WMAP. At the same time, we note that this is the first time the sample-based asymptotically exact Blackwell-Rao estimator has been successfully established for multipoles up to ℓ ≤ 600, and it now accounts for the majority of the cosmologically important information. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the unique capabilities of the Bayesian approach with respect to end-to-end systematic uncertainty propagation, and we believe it can and should play an important role in the analysis of future CMB experiments. Cosmological parameter constraints are presented in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

X{sub max}{sup μ} vs. N{sup μ} from extensive air showers as estimator for the mass of primary UHECR's. Application for the Pierre Auger Observatory

We study the possibility of primary mass estimation for Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays (UHECR's) using the X{sub max}{sup μ} (the height where the number of muons produced on the core of Extensive Air Showers (EAS) is maximum) and the number N{sup μ} of muons detected on ground. We use the 2D distribution - X{sub max}{sup μ} against N{sup μ} in order to find its sensitivity to the mass of the primary particle. For that, we construct a 2D Probability Function Prob(p,Fe | X{sub max}{sup μ}, N{sup μ}) which estimates the probability that a certain point from the plane (X{sub max}{sup μ}, N{sup μ}) corresponds to a shower induced by a proton, respectively an iron nucleus. To test the procedure, we analyze a set of simulated EAS induced by protons and iron nuclei at energies of 10{sup 19}eV and 20° zenith angle with CORSIKA. Using the Bayesian approach and taking into account the geometry of the infill detectors from the Pierre Auger Observatory, we observe an improvement in the accuracy of the primary mass reconstruction in comparison with the results obtained using only the X{sub max}{sup μ} distributions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of surface defects on damage and failure of dynamically driven cylindrical shells

Here, in this work, expanding cylinder experiments are performed using a gas gun on the aluminum 6061 alloy to understand the dynamic deformation and failure behavior of this material in the presence of surface defects in the form of scratches. The experiments are then modeled with the modified Tepla (for tensile plasticity) model, which is equipped with the damage yield function of Gurson [“Continuum theory of ductile rupture by void nucleation and growth: Part I—Yield criteria and flow rules for porous ductile media,” (1977)] and Tvergaard and Needleman [Acta Metall. 32(1), 157–169 (1984)], over-stress viscosity [F. Addessio and J. Johnson, J. Appl. Phys. 74(3), 1640–1648 (1993)], and the underlying viscoplastic model of Preston et al. [J. Appl. Phys. 93(1), 211–220 (2003)] (Preston–Tonks–Wallace model) for the dense material. The Tepla model parameters were calibrated using the Bayesian approach against experimentally measured free-surface velocity data obtained from plate impact experiments on the aluminum 6061 alloy. The evolution of radial expansion and shapes of the deformed cylinder from the simulations on a pristine cylinder wall and a cylinder wall with a longitudinal surface defect shows excellent agreement with the corresponding experimental results. Finally, the role of surface defect size and cylinder wall geometry on the dynamic strength of the cylinder wall was also investigated through a series of simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗