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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Variable Inhibition of Nitrous Oxide Reduction in Denitrifying Bacteria by Different Forms of Methanobactin

Aerobic methanotrophic activity is highly dependent on copper availability, and methanotrophs have developed multiple strategies to collect copper. Specifically, when copper is limiting (ambient concentrations < 1 μM), some methanotrophs produce and secret a small modified peptide (< 1,300 Da) termed methanobactin (MB) that binds copper with high affinity. As MB is secreted into the environment, other microbes that require copper for their metabolism may be inhibited as MB may make copper unavailable; e.g., inhibition of denitrifiers as complete conversion nitrate to dinitrogen involves multiple enzymes, some of which are copper-dependent. Of key concern is inhibition of the copper-dependent nitrous oxide reductase (NosZ), the only known enzyme capable of converting nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to dinitrogen. Herein, we show that different forms of MB differentially affect copper uptake and N2O reduction by Pseudomonas stutzeri strain DCP-Ps1 (that expresses clade I NosZ) and Dechloromonas aromatica strain RCB (that expresses clade II NosZ). Specifically, in the presence of MB from Methylocystis sp. strain SB2 (SB2-MB), copper uptake and nosZ expression were more significantly reduced than in the presence of MB from Methylosinus trichosporium OB3b (OB3b-MB). Further, N2O accumulation increased more significantly for both P. stutzeri strain DCP-Ps1 and D. aromatica strain RCB in the presence of SB2-MB versus OB3b-MB. These data illustrate that copper competition between methanotrophs and denitrifying bacteria can be significant and that the extent of such competition is dependent on the form of MB that methanotrophs produce.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Two novel Patescibacteria: Phycocordibacter aenigmaticus gen. nov. sp. nov. and Minusculum obligatum gen. nov. sp. nov., both associated with microalgae optimized for carbon dioxide sequestration from flue gas

The functional roles of bacterial symbionts associated with microalgae remain understudied despite the importance of microalgae in biotechnology and environmental microbiology. 16S rRNA gene sequencing was conducted to analyze bacterial communities associated with two microalgae optimized for growth with flue gas containing 5%–10% CO 2 . Two dominant bacteria with no taxonomic classification beyond the class level (Paceibacteria) were discovered repeatedly in the most productive algal cultures. Long-read metagenomic sequencing was conducted to yield high-quality metagenomes, from which two novel species were discovered under the Seqcode (seqco.de/r:ywe1blo2), Phycocordibacter aenigmaticus gen. nov. sp. nov. and Minusculum obligatum gen. nov. sp. nov. The genus Phycocordibacter gen. nov. was proposed as the nomenclatural type of the family Phycocordibacteraceae fam. nov. and the order Phycocordibacterales ord. nov. Both bacteria possessed features typical of Patescibacteria such as reduced genomes (<800 kbp), lack of complete glycolysis and tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle pathways, and inability to synthesize amino acids. Instead, they rely on the reductive pentose phosphate pathway (Calvin cycle) for essential biosynthesis and redox balance. P. aenigmaticus may also rely on elemental sulfur oxidation (sdo), partial nitrite reduction (nirK), and sulfur-related amino acid metabolism (SAMe → SAH). Both bacteria were found in high relative abundance in cultures of Tetradesmus obliquus HTB1 (freshwater) and Nannochloropsis oceanica IMET1 (marine), suggesting a tight association with microalgae in various environments. The absence of full metabolic pathways for energy production suggests extreme metabolic limitations and obligate symbiosis, most likely with other bacteria associated with the microalgae.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Defining the Sphagnum Core Microbiome across the North American Continent Reveals a Central Role for Diazotrophic Methanotrophs in the Nitrogen and Carbon Cycles of Boreal Peatland Ecosystems

Peat mosses of the genus Sphagnum are ecosystem engineers that frequently predominate over photosynthetic production in boreal peatlands. Sphagnum spp. host diverse microbial communities capable of nitrogen fixation (diazotrophy) and methane oxidation (methanotrophy), thereby potentially supporting plant growth under severely nutrient-limited conditions. Moreover, diazotrophic methanotrophs represent a possible “missing link” between the carbon and nitrogen cycles, but the functional contributions of the Sphagnum-associated microbiome remain in question. A combination of metagenomics, metatranscriptomics, and dual-isotope incorporation assays was applied to investigate Sphagnum microbiome community composition across the North American continent and provide empirical evidence for diazotrophic methanotrophy in Sphagnum-dominated ecosystems. Remarkably consistent prokaryotic communities were detected in over 250 Sphagnum SSU rRNA libraries from peatlands across the United States (5 states, 17 bog/fen sites, 18 Sphagnum species), with 12 genera of the core microbiome comprising 60% of the relative microbial abundance. Additionally, nitrogenase (nifH) and SSU rRNA gene amplicon analysis revealed that nitrogen-fixing populations made up nearly 15% of the prokaryotic communities, predominated by Nostocales cyanobacteria and Rhizobiales methanotrophs. While cyanobacteria comprised the vast majority (>95%) of diazotrophs detected in amplicon and metagenome analyses, obligate methanotrophs of the genus Methyloferula (order Rhizobiales) accounted for one-quarter of transcribed nifH genes. Furthermore, in dual-isotope tracer experiments, members of the Rhizobiales showed substantial incorporation of 13 CH 4 and 15 N 2 isotopes into their rRNA. Our study characterizes the core Sphagnum microbiome across large spatial scales and indicates that diazotrophic methanotrophs, here defined as obligate methanotrophs of the rare biosphere (Methyloferula spp. of the Rhizobiales) that also carry out diazotrophy, play a keystone role in coupling of the carbon and nitrogen cycles in nutrient-poor peatlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aerosol biome of a cafeteria and medical facility in Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA

Aerosol sampling with next-generation sequencing was used to characterize microbial communities in a cafeteria and medical facility waiting room in Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA. We detected sequences from human, bacteria, archaea, fungi, other eukaryotes, and viruses, providing insights into the diversity of the aerosol microbiome.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Melanization slows the rapid movement of fungal necromass carbon and nitrogen into both bacterial and fungal decomposer communities and soils

Microbial necromass contributes significantly to both soil carbon (C) persistence and ecosystem nitrogen (N) availability, but quantitative estimates of C and N movement from necromass into soils and decomposer communities are lacking. Additionally, while melanin is known to slow fungal necromass decomposition, how it influences microbial C and N acquisition as well as elemental release into soils remains unclear. Here, we tracked decomposition of isotopically labeled low and high melanin fungal necromass and measured 13 C and 15 N accumulation in surrounding soils and microbial communities over 77 d in a temperate forest in Minnesota, USA. Mass loss was significantly higher from low melanin necromass, corresponding with greater 13 C and 15 N soil inputs. A taxonomically and functionally diverse array of bacteria and fungi was enriched in 13 C and/or 15 N at all sampling points, with enrichment being consistently higher on low melanin necromass and earlier in decomposition. Similar patterns of preferential C and N enrichment of many bacterial and fungal genera early in decomposition suggest that both microbial groups co-contribute to the rapid assimilation of resource-rich soil organic matter inputs. While overall richness of taxa enriched in C was higher than in N for both bacteria and fungi, there was a significant positive relationship between C and N in co-enriched taxa. Collectively, our results demonstrate that melanization acts as a key ecological trait mediating not only fungal necromass decomposition rate but also necromass C and N release and that both elements are rapidly co-utilized by diverse bacterial and fungal decomposers in natural settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genome-Resolved Metaproteomics Decodes the Microbial and Viral Contributions to Coupled Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in River Sediments

Rivers have a significant role in global carbon and nitrogen cycles, serving as a nexus for nutrient transport between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Although rivers have a small global surface area, they contribute substantially to worldwide greenhouse gas emissions through microbially mediated processes within the river hyporheic zone. Despite this importance, research linking microbial and viral communities to specific biogeochemical reactions is still nascent in these sediment environments. To survey the metabolic potential and gene expression underpinning carbon and nitrogen biogeochemical cycling in river sediments, we collected an integrated data set of 33 metagenomes, metaproteomes, and paired metabolomes. We reconstructed over 500 microbial metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs), which we dereplicated into 55 unique, nearly complete medium- and high-quality MAGs spanning 12 bacterial and archaeal phyla. We also reconstructed 2,482 viral genomic contigs, which were dereplicated into 111 viral MAGs (vMAGs) of >10 kb in size. As a result of integrating gene expression data with geochemical and metabolite data, we created a conceptual model that uncovered new roles for microorganisms in organic matter decomposition, carbon sequestration, nitrogen mineralization, nitrification, and denitrification. We show how these metabolic pathways, integrated through shared resource pools of ammonium, carbon dioxide, and inorganic nitrogen, could ultimately contribute to carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide fluxes from hyporheic sediments. Further, by linking viral MAGs to these active microbial hosts, we provide some of the first insights into viral modulation of river sediment carbon and nitrogen cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the Unique Ability of Trichodesmium To Fix Carbon and Nitrogen Simultaneously Using MiMoSA

The open ocean is an extremely competitive environment, partially due to the dearth of nutrients. Trichodesmium erythraeum, a marine diazotrophic cyanobacterium, is a keystone species in the ocean due to its ability to fix nitrogen and leak 30 to 50% into the surrounding environment, providing a valuable source of a necessary macronutrient to other species. While there are other diazotrophic cyanobacteria that play an important role in the marine nitrogen cycle, Trichodesmium is unique in its ability to fix both carbon and nitrogen simultaneously during the day without the use of specialized cells called heterocysts to protect nitrogenase from oxygen. Here, we use the advanced modeling framework called multiscale multiobjective systems analysis (MiMoSA) to investigate how Trichodesmium erythraeum can reduce dimolecular nitrogen to ammonium in the presence of oxygen. Our simulations indicate that nitrogenase inhibition is best modeled as Michealis-Menten competitive inhibition and that cells along the filament maintain microaerobia using high flux through Mehler reactions in order to protect nitrogenase from oxygen. We also examined the effect of location on metabolic flux and found that cells at the end of filaments operate in distinctly different metabolic modes than internal cells despite both operating in a photoautotrophic mode. These results give us important insight into how this species is able to operate photosynthesis and nitrogen fixation simultaneously, giving it a distinct advantage over other diazotrophic cyanobacteria because they can harvest light directly to fuel the energy demand of nitrogen fixation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Mineral-Doped Micromodel Platform Demonstrates Fungal Bridging of Carbon Hot Spots and Hyphal Transport of Mineral-Derived Nutrients

Fungal species are foundational members of soil microbiomes, where their contributions in accessing and transporting vital nutrients is key for community resilience. To date, the molecular mechanisms underlying fungal mineral weathering and nutrient translocation in low-nutrient environments remain poorly resolved due to the lack of a platform for spatial analysis of biotic weathering processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microbial sensor variation across biogeochemical conditions in the terrestrial deep subsurface

ABSTRACT Microbes can be found in abundance many kilometers underground. While microbial metabolic capabilities have been examined across different geochemical settings, it remains unclear how changes in subsurface niches affect microbial needs to sense and respond to their environment. To address this question, we examined how microbial extracellular sensor systems vary with environmental conditions across metagenomes at different Deep Mine Microbial Observatory (DeMMO) subsurface sites. Because two-component systems (TCSs) directly sense extracellular conditions and convert this information into intracellular biochemical responses, we expected that this sensor family would vary across isolated oligotrophic subterranean environments that differ in abiotic and biotic conditions. TCSs were found at all six subsurface sites, the service water control, and the surface site, with an average of 0.88 sensor histidine kinases (HKs) per 100 genes across all sites. Abundance was greater in subsurface fracture fluids compared with surface-derived fluids, and candidate phyla radiation (CPR) bacteria presented the lowest HK frequencies. Measures of microbial diversity, such as the Shannon diversity index, revealed that HK abundance is inversely correlated with microbial diversity ( r 2 = 0.81). Among the geochemical parameters measured, HK frequency correlated most strongly with variance in dissolved organic carbon ( r 2 = 0.82). Taken together, these results implicate the abiotic and biotic properties of an ecological niche as drivers of sensor needs, and they suggest that microbes in environments with large fluctuations in organic nutrients (e.g., lacustrine, terrestrial, and coastal ecosystems) may require greater TCS diversity than ecosystems with low nutrients (e.g., open ocean). IMPORTANCE The ability to detect extracellular environmental conditions is a fundamental property of all life forms. Because microbial two-component sensor systems convert information about extracellular conditions into biochemical information that controls their behaviors, we evaluated how two-component sensor systems evolved within the deep Earth across multiple sites where abiotic and biotic properties vary. We show that these sensor systems remain abundant in microbial consortia at all subterranean sampling sites and observe correlations between sensor system abundances and abiotic (dissolved organic carbon variation) and biotic (consortia diversity) properties. These results suggest that multiple environmental properties may drive sensor protein evolution and highlight the need for further studies of metagenomic and geochemical data in parallel to understand the drivers of microbial sensor evolution.

response regulator↗
DOE OSTI2023

A standardized quantitative analysis strategy for stable isotope probing metagenomics

ABSTRACT Stable isotope probing (SIP) facilitates culture-independent identification of active microbial populations within complex ecosystems through isotopic enrichment of nucleic acids. Many DNA-SIP studies rely on 16S rRNA gene sequences to identify active taxa, but connecting these sequences to specific bacterial genomes is often challenging. Here, we describe a standardized laboratory and analysis framework to quantify isotopic enrichment on a per-genome basis using shotgun metagenomics instead of 16S rRNA gene sequencing. To develop this framework, we explored various sample processing and analysis approaches using a designed microbiome where the identity of labeled genomes and their level of isotopic enrichment were experimentally controlled. With this ground truth dataset, we empirically assessed the accuracy of different analytical models for identifying active taxa and examined how sequencing depth impacts the detection of isotopically labeled genomes. We also demonstrate that using synthetic DNA internal standards to measure absolute genome abundances in SIP density fractions improves estimates of isotopic enrichment. In addition, our study illustrates the utility of internal standards to reveal anomalies in sample handling that could negatively impact SIP metagenomic analyses if left undetected. Finally, we present SIPmg , an R package to facilitate the estimation of absolute abundances and perform statistical analyses for identifying labeled genomes within SIP metagenomic data. This experimentally validated analysis framework strengthens the foundation of DNA-SIP metagenomics as a tool for accurately measuring the in situ activity of environmental microbial populations and assessing their genomic potential. IMPORTANCE Answering the questions, “who is eating what?” and “who is active?” within complex microbial communities is paramount for our ability to model, predict, and modulate microbiomes for improved human and planetary health. These questions can be pursued using stable isotope probing to track the incorporation of labeled compounds into cellular DNA during microbial growth. However, with traditional stable isotope methods, it is challenging to establish links between an active microorganism’s taxonomic identity and genome composition while providing quantitative estimates of the microorganism’s isotope incorporation rate. Here, we report an experimental and analytical workflow that lays the foundation for improved detection of metabolically active microorganisms and better quantitative estimates of genome-resolved isotope incorporation, which can be used to further refine ecosystem-scale models for carbon and nutrient fluxes within microbiomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Terabase-Scale Coassembly of a Tropical Soil Microbiome

Petabases of reads are being produced by environmental metagenome sequencing. An essential step in analyzing these data is metagenome assembly, the computational reconstruction of genome sequences from microbial communities. “Coassembly” of metagenomic sequence data, in which multiple samples are assembled together, enables more complete detection of microbial genomes in an environment than “multiassembly,” in which samples are assembled individually.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changes in environmental and engineered conditions alter the plasma membrane lipidome of fractured shale bacteria

ABSTRACT Microorganisms that persist in fractured shale reservoirs cause several problems including secreting foul gases and forming biofilms. Current biocontrol measures often fail due to limited knowledge of their in situ activities. The plasma membrane protects the cell, mediates many of its critical functions, and responds to intracellular cues and ecological perturbations through physicochemical modifications. As such, it provides valuable insight into the physiological adaptation of microorganisms in disturbed environmental systems. Here, we (i) demonstrate how changes in salinity and hydraulic retention time (HRT) influence the plasma membrane intact polar lipid (IPL) chemistry of model bacterium, Halanaerobium congolense WG10, and mixed microbial consortia enriched from shale-produced fluids and (ii) elucidate adjustments in membrane IPL chemistry during biofilm growth relative to planktonic cells. We incubated H. congolense WG10 in chemostats under three salinities (7%, 13%, and 20% NaCl), operated under three HRTs (19.2, 24, and 48 h), and in drip flow biofilm reactors under the same salinity gradients. Also, mixed microbial consortia in produced fluids were enriched in triplicate chemostat vessels under three HRTs (19.2, 24, and 72 h) and biofilm reactors. Lipids were analyzed by ultra high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS). Our results show that phosphatidylglycerols, cardiolipins, and phosphatidylethanolamines were predominantly enriched in planktonic H. congolense WG10 cells grown at hypersalinity (20%) compared to optimum (13%). In addition, several zwitterionic phosphatidylcholines and phosphatidylethanolamines were higher in abundance during biofilm growth. These observations suggest that microbial adaptation and biofilm formation in fractured shale are enabled by strategic plasma membrane IPL chemistry adjustments. IMPORTANCE Microorganisms inadvertently introduced into the shale reservoir during fracturing face multiple stressors including brine-level salinities and starvation. However, some anaerobic halotolerant bacteria adapt and persist for long periods of time. They produce hydrogen sulfide, which sours the reservoir and corrodes engineering infrastructure. In addition, they form biofilms on rock matrices, which decrease shale permeability and clog fracture networks. These reduce well productivity and increase extraction costs. Under stress, microbes remodel their plasma membrane to optimize its roles in protection and mediating cellular processes such as signaling, transport, and energy metabolism. Hence, by observing changes in the membrane lipidome of model shale bacteria, Halanaerobium congolense WG10, and mixed consortia enriched from produced fluids under varying subsurface conditions and growth modes, we provide insight that advances our knowledge of the fractured shale biosystem. We also offer data-driven recommendations for improving biocontrol efficacy and the efficiency of energy recovery from unconventional formations.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gene Expression in Dunaliella salina Bardawil +/- Iron

Dunaliella salina Bardawil (also known as Dunaliella bardawil) is an extremophilic, unicellular green alga from the Chlorophyte lineage. D. salina is found in hypersaline environments where it can tolerate extremes of heat, light, pH, and up to saturating concentrations of salt. The D. salina Bardawil isolate (UTEX LB 2538) was found in a salt pond near the Bardawil Lagoon on the Sinai peninsula in 1976. This isolate of D. salina is the richest natural source of beta-carotene, a highly valuable commercial product. This accession includes an RNA-Seq analysis of D. salina Bardawil cultures grown in iron-replete (1.5 µM) or iron-deficient (0 µM) media.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gene Expression in Dunaliella tertiolecta +/- Iron

Dunaliella tertiolecta is an extremophilic, green alga from the Chlorophyte lineage. It is found in coastal marine environments around the world. D. tertiolecta can tolerate extremes of heat, light, pH, and salinity. D. tertiolecta is under development for the production biofuels and other bioproducts because it can produce large quantities of neutral lipids, and it can be grown in open raceway ponds using only the inputs of seawater and sunlight. This isolate of D. tertiolecta (UTEX LB 999) was found in Oslofjord, Norway in 1938. This accession includes an RNA-Seq analysis of D. tertiolecta cultures grown in iron-replete (1.5 µM) or iron-deficient (0 µM) media.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Installation and imaging of thousands of minirhizotrons to phenotype root systems of field-grown plants

Roots are vital to plant performance because they acquire resources from the soil and provide anchorage. However, it remains difficult to assess root system size and distribution because roots are inaccessible in the soil. Existing methods to phenotype entire root systems range from slow, often destructive, methods applied to relatively small numbers of plants in the field to rapid methods that can be applied to large numbers of plants in controlled environment conditions. Much has been learned recently by extensive sampling of the root crown portion of field-grown plants. But, information on large-scale genetic and environmental variation in the size and distribution of root systems in the field remains a key knowledge gap. Minirhizotrons are the only established, non-destructive technology that can address this need in a standard field trial. Prior experiments have used only modest numbers of minirhizotrons, which has limited testing to small numbers of genotypes or environmental conditions. This study addressed the need for methods to install and collect images from thousands of minirhizotrons and thereby help break the phenotyping bottleneck in the field. Over three growing seasons, methods were developed and refined to install and collect images from up to 3038 minirhizotrons per experiment. Modifications were made to four tractors and hydraulic soil corers mounted to them. High quality installation was achieved at an average rate of up to 84.4 minirhizotron tubes per tractor per day. A set of four commercially available minirhizotron camera systems were each transported by wheelbarrow to allow collection of images of mature maize root systems at an average rate of up to 65.3 tubes per day per camera. This resulted in over 300,000 images being collected in as little as 11 days for a single experiment. The scale of minirhizotron installation was increased by two orders of magnitude by simultaneously using four tractor-mounted, hydraulic soil corers with modifications to ensure high quality, rapid operation. Image collection can be achieved at the corresponding scale using commercially available minirhizotron camera systems. Along with recent advances in image analysis, these advances will allow use of minirhizotrons at unprecedented scale to address key knowledge gaps regarding genetic and environmental effects on root system size and distribution in the field.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solid-state NMR of unlabeled plant cell walls: high-resolution structural analysis without isotopic enrichment

Abstract Background Multidimensional solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (ssNMR) spectroscopy has emerged as an indispensable technique for resolving polymer structure and intermolecular packing in primary and secondary plant cell walls. Isotope ( 13 C) enrichment provides feasible sensitivity for measuring 2D/3D correlation spectra, but this time-consuming procedure and its associated expenses have restricted the application of ssNMR in lignocellulose analysis. Results Here, we present a method that relies on the sensitivity-enhancing technique Dynamic Nuclear Polarization (DNP) to eliminate the need for 13 C-labeling. With a 26-fold sensitivity enhancement, a series of 2D 13 C– 13 C correlation spectra were successfully collected using the unlabeled stems of wild-type Oryza sativa (rice). The atomic resolution allows us to observe a large number of intramolecular cross peaks for fully revealing the polymorphic structure of cellulose and xylan. NMR relaxation and dipolar order parameters further suggest a sophisticated change of molecular motions in a ctl1 ctl2 double mutant: both cellulose and xylan have become more dynamic on the nanosecond and microsecond timescale, but the motional amplitudes are uniformly small for both polysaccharides. Conclusions By skipping isotopic labeling, the DNP strategy demonstrated here is universally extendable to all lignocellulose materials. This time-efficient method has landed the technical foundation for understanding polysaccharide structure and cell wall assembly in a large variety of plant tissues and species.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗