SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Atmospheric science”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets
Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.
The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa
We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.
Projections of North American snow from NA-CORDEX and their uncertainties, with a focus on model resolution
Not provided.
Projected impacts of climate change on major dams in the Upper Yangtze River Basin
Not provided.
Modelling climate analogue regions for a central European city
In this study, we describe a methodology to derive climate analogue cities for spatially highly resolved future climate scenarios. For the computation, a reduced and in hindsight bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX EUR-11 dataset is used based on two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A total of 389 European cities are processed by the algorithm, which uses five statistical climate variables (2-m air temperature average and amplitude, precipitation sum and amplitude, correlation between 2-m air temperature average and precipitation sum). Additionally, extreme weather events (hot days, summer days, tropical nights, extreme precipitation events) are calculated for further comparison and validation. Finding an appropriate analogue permits a more accurate derivation and depiction of necessary climate adaptation efforts and therefore assist decision-making in city planning. As an example of our method, we searched for plausible climate twins for the mid-sized city of Aachen (Germany) at the end of the twenty-first century. Our results show that the French city of Dijon is highly likely to become Aachen’s climate twin by the end of the century for RCP4.5. As for the scenario RCP8.5, no clear European analogue city could be determined, indicating that the city might enter a novel climate. The nearest match suggests the cities of Florence and Prato in Tuscany. However, considering climate indices, the encompassing region of the French–Spanish city triangle Bordeaux–Toulouse–Bilbao is a better fit. The developed algorithm can be applied to any of the cities included in the dataset.
Response of Nutrients and Sediment to Hydrologic Variables in Switchgrass Intercropped Pine Forest Ecosystems on Poorly Drained Soil
Not provided.
Observation of sub-3nm particles and new particle formation at an urban location in India
Not provided.
Usage and impact of a do-it-yourself air cleaner on residential PM2.5 in a smoke-impacted community
Not provided.
Long-term ambient sulfur dioxide exposure during gestation and preterm birth in North Carolina, 2003–2015
Not provided.
Application-specific optimal model weighting of global climate models: A red tide example
Global climate models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) provide many climate services with environmental relevance. The High Resolution Model Inter-comparison Project (HighResMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides model runs of GCMs and ESMs to address regional phenomena. Developing a parsimonious ensemble of CMIP6 requires multiple ensemble methods such as independent-model subset selection, prescreening-based subset selection, and model weighting. The work presented here focuses on application-specific optimal model weighting, with prescreening-based subset selection. As such, independent ensemble members are categorized, selected, and weighted based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are problem-specific. We discuss the strengths and caveats of optimal model weighting using a case study of red tide prediction in the Gulf of Mexico along the West Florida Shelf. Red tide is a common name of specific harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, causing adverse socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Our results indicate the importance of prescreening-based subset selection as optimal model weighting can underplay robust ensemble members by optimizing error cancellation. Prescreening-based subset selection also provides insights about the validity of the model weights. By illustrating the caveats of using non-representative models when optimal model weighting is used, the findings and discussion of this study are pertinent to many other climate services.
Particle emissions from mobile sources: Discussion of ultrafine particle emissions and definition
There is no universally agreed upon definition for ultrafine particles (UFP). Commonly used definitions for UFP are either particle number below 100 nm or total particle number, but without an agreed upon lower cut point. For example, a lower cut point of 3 nm compared to 10 nm could result in a substantially higher count. Another definition for UFP is total particle mass but without a commonly agreed upon aerodynamic diameter upper cut point, e.g., below 100 nm, 200 nm, 300 nm, etc. Yet another definition is lung deposited surface area weighted by lung deposition fraction, found mainly in the particle mobility diameter range from 20 to 400 nm. It is clear from these definitions that there are inconsistencies in the way UFP is used and defined in the literature. Sometimes these metrics are well correlated, sometimes not. In this paper we suggest three exposure metrics: UFP-N, UFP-M, and UFP-S, that we believe will add clarity. These metrics represent total number, mass, and surface area below 500 nm, respectively. For surface area and mass, the 500 nm cut point can be either aerodynamic or mobility diameter depending upon measurement methodology. For all metrics, this cut point captures nearly all of the primary particle emissions from mobile sources. Furthermore, UFP-N would include a lower cut point of 3–6 nm and would not require an upper size cut point because there is very little particle number above 500 nm or even above 100 nm. Thus, our definition of UFP-N is consistent with the current definition of ultrafine number except for, importantly, the specification of a lower cut point. These exposure metrics can help facilitate consistency in the characterization of both short- and long-term UFP ambient exposures and associated health effects in epidemiological studies.
Synchrotron infrared nano-spectroscopy and -imaging
Infrared (IR) spectroscopy has evolved into a powerful analytical technique to probe molecular and lattice vibrations, low-energy electronic excitations and correlations, and related collective surface plasmon, phonon, or other polaritonic resonances. In combination with scanning probe microscopy, near-field infrared nano-spectroscopy and -imaging techniques have recently emerged as a frontier in imaging science, enabling the study of complex heterogeneous materials with simultaneous nanoscale spatial resolution and chemical and quantum state spectroscopic specificity. Here, we describe synchrotron infrared nano-spectroscopy (SINS), which takes advantage of the low-noise, broadband, high spectral irradiance, and coherence of synchrotron infrared radiation for near-field infrared measurements across the mid- to far-infrared with nanometer spatial resolution. This powerful combination provides a qualitatively new form of broadband spatio-spectral analysis of nanoscale, mesoscale, and surface phenomena that were previously difficult to study with IR techniques, or even any form of micro-spectroscopy in general. We review the development of SINS, describe its technical implementations, and highlight selected examples representative of the rapidly growing range of applications in physics, chemistry, biology, materials science, geology, and atmospheric and space sciences.
Stakeholder analysis for designing an urban air quality data governance ecosystem in smart cities
Cities, the world over, are fuelling economic growth. At the same time, rapid urbanization is a root cause of serious environmental damage. Recent WHO global air pollution guidelines highlight air pollution as a critical environmental threat along with climate change. To address these threats, smart cities and clean air programs are on a rise. In smart cities, data and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are major drivers of city transformations. The 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), big data, artificial intelligence (AI), and cloud computing have the potential to accelerate these transformations toward urban resilience. However, the success of smart cities and clean air programs depends on cohesive multi-sector stakeholder contributions. This study conducted interdisciplinary participative stakeholder analysis to understand the data, and sectorial challenges, to outline the technological opportunities to facilitate clean air programs in Indian smart cities. The research highlights gaps due to siloed stakeholder operations, lack of data calibration, non-alignment of smart city and air quality management services, non-availability of health exposure data, and difficulty in translating scientific data into implementable actions. Stakeholders expressed potential ‘fit for the purpose’ use of IoT devices, satellites, smartphones, and mobility data augmented by AI methods in bridging these gaps. In conclusion, the analysis points toward a need to develop an easily accessible and ubiquitous urban data governance ecosystem enabling seamless cross-sector data exchanges to build trusting relationships among the stakeholders across the air quality management value chain.
An evaluation of meteorological data prediction over Washington, D.C.: Comparison of DCNet observations and NAM model outputs
This study presents an example of how outputs of operational and readily-available mesoscale numerical models can be adapted to initialize dispersion calculations within the urban surface roughness layer. Three years of urban meteorological observations from central Washington, DC, are compared against forecast outputs of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. NAM wind speed predictions underestimate the observations in light winds and overestimate the measurements in high winds. Average wind directions are consistent. However, an adjustment of the predicted direction of the plume by –20° is needed. The uncertainty associated with this adjustment is large in light NAM wind speed with no evident variation by season. The values of the standard deviation of the wind direction, σθ derived from NAM model outputs underestimate the observations by a small amount (about –1.5 to –2.5°). The results presented here indicate that mesoscale numerical model outputs can provide information adequate for dispersion calculations. However, levels of uncertainty associated with implementation of the suggested procedures increase with decreasing wind speed, causing considerable uncertainty in the implementation of adjustments as low wind speed conditions are approached. Results and recommendations reported here should not be extended to other numerical models or other cities without further testing.
Shifting Islands: How weather conditions and urban form shape the spatiotemporal character of Baltimore's urban heat island
Not Available