Results for “Analyst” — Page 15

DOE OSTI2016

International Energy Outlook 2016 With Projections to 2040

The International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2040. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2016 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015). IEO2016 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, federal and state governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). The IEO2016 energy consumption projections are divided according to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development members (OECD) and nonmembers (non-OECD). OECD members are divided into three basic country groupings: OECD Americas (United States, Canada, and Mexico/Chile), OECD Europe, and OECD Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Australia/New Zealand). Non-OECD countries are divided into five separate regional subgroups: non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (which includes Russia); non-OECD Asia (which includes China and India); Middle East; Africa; and non-OECD Americas (which includes Brazil). In some instances, the IEO2016 energy production models have different regional aggregations to reflect important production sources (for example, Middle East OPEC is a key region in the projections for liquids production). Complete regional definitions are listed in Appendix M. IEO2016 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Nonmarketed energy sources, which continue to play an important role in some developing countries, are not included in the estimates. The IEO2016 projections are based on existing U.S. and foreign government laws and regulations. In general, IEO2016 reflects the effects of current policies—often stated through regulations—within the projections. EIA analysts attempt to interpret the likely effects of announced country targets when the implementation of those targets will require new policies that have not been formulated or announced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Plutonium Critical Mass Curve Comparison to Mass at Upper Subcritical Limit (USL) Using Whisper

Whisper is computational software designed to assist the nuclear criticality safety analyst with validation studies with the MCNP ® Monte Carlo radiation transport package. Standard approaches to validation rely on the selection of benchmarks based upon expert judgment. Whisper uses sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) methods to select relevant benchmarks to a particular application or set of applications being analyzed. Using these benchmarks, Whisper computes a calculational margin. Whisper attempts to quantify the margin of subcriticality (MOS) from errors in software and uncertainties in nuclear data. The combination of the Whisper-derived calculational margin and MOS comprise the baseline upper subcritical limit (USL), to which an additional margin may be applied by the nuclear criticality safety analyst as appropriate to ensure subcriticality. A series of critical mass curves for plutonium, similar to those found in Figure 31 of LA-10860-MS, have been generated using MCNP6.1.1 and the iterative parameter study software, WORM_Solver. The baseline USL for each of the data points of the curves was then computed using Whisper 1.1. The USL was then used to determine the equivalent mass for plutonium metal-water system. ANSI/ANS-8.1 states that it is acceptable to use handbook data, such as the data directly from the LA-10860-MS, as it is already considered validated (Section 4.3 4) “Use of subcritical limit data provided in ANSI/ANS standards or accepted reference publications does not require further validation.”). This paper attempts to take a novel approach to visualize traditional critical mass curves and allows comparison with the amount of mass for which the k eff is equal to the USL (calculational margin + margin of subcriticality). However, the intent is to plot the critical mass data along with USL, not to suggest that already accepted handbook data should have new and more rigorous requirements for validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Nautical Dawn - Wide-area Motion Imagery and RF Compressive Sensing Applications: CRADA Final Report

The global information grid (GIG) provides access to massive amounts of data from a vast number of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) sensors and sources. A significant challenge exists in the actual exploitation of the sensor data. Sensor data is often large, and in the present paradigm analysts extract information from it in raw form. This approach taxes the limited network-bandwidth of the GIG, since the raw data must be transmitted to analysts prior to processing. The parties proposed a new approach to advance the rate of production of actionable information from ISR data, one that extracts information from raw data closer to the sensors. This research developed an information-centric capability that uses a distributed compressive sensing and processing (DCSP) framework.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2016

User Guidelines and Best Practices for CASL VUQ Analysis Using Dakota.

Sandia's Dakota software (available at http://dakota.sandia.gov) supports science and engineering transformation through advanced exploration of simulations. Specifically, it manages and analyzes ensembles of simulations to provide broader and deeper perspective for analysts and decision makers. This enables them to enhance understanding of risk, improve products, and assess simulation credibility. This manual offers Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (LWRs) (CASL) partners a guide to conducting Dakota-based VUQ studies for CASL problems. It motivates various classes of Dakota methods and includes examples of their use on representative application problems. On reading, a CASL analyst should understand why and how to apply Dakota to a simulation problem.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2016

NSRD-11: Computational Capability to Substantiate DOE-HDBK-3010 Data.

Safety basis analysts throughout the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex rely heavily on the information provided in the DOE Handbook, DOE - HDBK - 3010, Airborne Release Fractions/Rates and Respirable Fractions for Nonreactor Nuclear Facilities, to determine radionuclide source terms. In calculating source terms, analysts tend to use the DOE Handbook's bounding values on airborne release fractions (ARFs) and respirable fractions (RFs) for various categories of insults (representing potential accident release categories). This is typically due to both time constraints and the avoidance of regulatory critique. Unfortunately, these bounding ARFs/RFs represent extremely conservative values. Moreover, they were derived from very limited small-scale bench/laboratory experiments and/or from engineered judgment. Thus, the basis for the data may not be representative of the actual unique accident conditions and configurations being evaluated. The goal of this research is to develop a more accurate and defensible method to determine bounding values for the DOE Handbook using state-of-art multi-physics-based computer codes. This enables us to better understand the fundamental physics and phenomena associated with the types of accidents in the handbook. In this year, this research included improvements of the high-fidelity codes to model particle resuspension and multi-component evaporation for fire scenarios. We also began to model ceramic fragmentation experiments, and to reanalyze the liquid fire and powder release experiments that were done last year. The results show that the added physics better describes the fragmentation phenomena. Thus, this work provides a low-cost method to establish physics-justified safety bounds by taking into account specific geometries and conditions that may not have been previously measured and/or are too costly to perform.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Echo

This document is a white paper marketing proposal for Echo™ is a data analysis platform designed for efficient, robust, and scalable creation and execution of complex workflows. Echo’s analysis management system refers to the ability to track, understand, and reproduce workflows used for arriving at results and decisions. Echo improves on traditional scripted data analysis in MATLAB, Python, R, and other languages to allow analysts to make better use of their time. Additionally, the Echo platform provides a powerful data management and curation solution allowing analysts to quickly find, access, and consume datasets. After two years of development and a first release in early 2016, Echo is now available for use with many data types in a wide range of application domains. Echo provides tools that allow users to focus on data analysis and decisions with confidence that results are reported accurately.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Energy Finance Data Warehouse Manual

The Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis s finance team (EPSA-50) requires a suite of automated applications that can extract specific data from a flexible data warehouse (where datasets characterizing energy-related finance, economics and markets are maintained and integrated), perform relevant operations and creatively visualize them to provide a better understanding of what policy options affect various operators/sectors of the electricity system. In addition, the underlying data warehouse should be structured in the most effective and efficient way so that it can become increasingly valuable over time. This report describes the Energy Finance Data Warehouse (EFDW) framework that has been developed to accomplish the defined requirement above. We also specifically dive into the Sankey generator use-case scenario to explain the components of the EFDW framework and their roles. An excel-based data warehouse was used in the creation of the energy finance Sankey diagram and other detailed data finance visualizations to support energy policy analysis. The framework also captures the methodology, calculations and estimations analysts used for the calculation as well as relevant sources so newer analysts can build on work done previously.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

NSRD-10: Leak Path Factor Guidance Using MELCOR

Estimates of the source term from a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facility requires that the analysts know how to apply the simulation tools used, such as the MELCOR code, particularly for a complicated facility that may include an air ventilation system and other active systems that can influence the environmental pathway of the materials released. DOE has designated MELCOR 1.8.5, an unsupported version, as a DOE ToolBox code in its Central Registry, which includes a leak-path-factor guidance report written in 2004 that did not include experimental validation data. To continue to use this MELCOR version requires additional verification and validations, which may not be feasible from a project cost standpoint. Instead, the recent MELCOR should be used. Without any developer support and lack of experimental data validation, it is difficult to convince regulators that the calculated source term from the DOE facility is accurate and defensible. This research replaces the obsolete version in the 2004 DOE leak path factor guidance report by using MELCOR 2.1 (the latest version of MELCOR with continuing modeling development and user support) and by including applicable experimental data from the reactor safety arena and from applicable experimental data used in the DOE-HDBK-3010. This research provides best practice values used in MELCOR 2.1 specifically for the leak path determination. With these enhancements, the revised leak-path-guidance report should provide confidence to the DOE safety analyst who would be using MELCOR as a source-term determination tool for mitigated accident evaluations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Enrichment Meter Dataset from High-Resolution Gamma Spectroscopy Measurements of U3O8 Enrichment Standards and UF6 Cylinder Wall Equivalents

The Enrichment Meter Principle (EMP) is the basis for a commonly used standard test method for the non-destructive assay of 235 U enrichment in bulk compounds [1]. The technique involves determining the net count rate in the direct 186 keV peak using medium or high energy gamma-ray spectrometry in a fixed geometry. With suitable correction for wall attenuation, compound type, rate loss (live time), and peaked background (if significant), the atom fraction of 235 U may be obtained from the counting rate from a linear relationship through the origin. The widespread use of this method for field verification of enrichment [2,3] together with the fact that the response function rests on fundamental physics considerations (i.e., is not represented by a convenient but arbitrary form) makes it an interesting example of uncertainty quantification, one in which one can expect a valid measurement model can be applied. When applied using NaI(Tl) and region of interest analysis, the technique is susceptible to both interference error and bias [2-4]. When implemented using high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy, the spectrum interpretation is considerable simplified and more robust [5]. However, a practical challenge to studying the uncertainty budget of the EMP method (for example, to test linearity, extract wall corrections and so forth using modern methods) is the availability of quality experimental data that can be referenced and shared. To fill this gap, the research team undertook an experimental campaign [6]. A measurement campaign was conducted to produce high-resolution gamma spectroscopy enrichment meter data comparable to UF 6 cylinder measurements. The purpose of this report is to provide both an introduction to and quality assurance (QA) of the raw data produced. This report is intended for the analyst or researcher who uses the raw data. Unfortunately, the raw data (i.e., the spectra files) are too voluminous to include in this report but can be requested from Steven Croft of the Safeguards & Security Technology Group (scroft@ornl.gov 865-241-2834). The complete processed data are tabulated in Appendix A. The analysis techniques used to produce the QA data presented in this report [e.g., three regions-ofinterest (ROI) peak extraction and batch analysis processes] are not the most sophisticated techniques available; analysts are encouraged to reanalyze the raw data using more sensitive techniques and to improve upon the results presented here. With that being said, the analysis techniques used here are more than adequate to present and inspect the quality of the data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2017

Successful Completion of FY18/Q1 ASC L2 Milestone 6355: Electrical Analysis Calibration Workflow Capability Demonstration.

The Sandia Analysis Workbench (SAW) project has developed and deployed a production capability for SIERRA computational mechanics analysis workflows. However, the electrical analysis workflow capability requirements have only been demonstrated in early prototype states, with no real capability deployed for analysts’ use. This milestone aims to improve the electrical analysis workflow capability (via SAW and related tools) and deploy it for ongoing use. We propose to focus on a QASPR electrical analysis calibration workflow use case. We will include a number of new capabilities (versus today’s SAW), such as: 1) support for the XYCE code workflow component, 2) data management coupled to electrical workflow, 3) human-in-theloop workflow capability, and 4) electrical analysis workflow capability deployed on the restricted (and possibly classified) network at Sandia. While far from the complete set of capabilities required for electrical analysis workflow over the long term, this is a substantial first step toward full production support for the electrical analysts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use service demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

NSRD-15:Computational Capability to Substantiate DOE-HDBK-3010 Data

Safety basis analysts throughout the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex rely heavily on the information provided in the DOE Handbook, DOE-HDBK-3010, Airborne Release Fractions/Rates and Respirable Fractions for Nonreactor Nuclear Facilities, to determine radionuclide source terms from postulated accident scenarios. In calculating source terms, analysts tend to use the DOE Handbook’s bounding values on airborne release fractions (ARFs) and respirable fractions (RFs) for various categories of insults (representing potential accident release categories). This is typically due to both time constraints and the avoidance of regulatory critique. Unfortunately, these bounding ARFs/RFs represent extremely conservative values. Moreover, they were derived from very limited small-scale bench/laboratory experiments and/or from engineered judgment. Thus, the basis for the data may not be representative of the actual unique accident conditions and configurations being evaluated. The goal of this research is to develop a more accurate and defensible method to determine bounding values for the DOE Handbook using state-of-art multi-physics-based computer codes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Dynamic Networks Experiment FY18 - Quality Control Focus Area Efforts

The availability of data whose quality is fittingly labeled is of tantamount importance to signal detection and all other downstream signal processing operations. Without identification, the goals of low yield nuclear monitoring cannot reach their full potential. A fundamental question that remains is the knowledge of the capability gaps that prevent us from using open network data. With these new channels, we will need better understanding of the frequency, type, severity, and impact of artifacts when compared to conventional networks. Moreover, beyond a simple quality label, thresholds for acceptable use of the data will need to be established, likely on a use case by use case basis. Finally, orders of magnitude more data with an at-best static analyst pool size means that quality artifacts must be identified with as little human interaction as possible. Automated methodologies must be developed to account for the scale of the problem when ad hoc networks are candidates for processing. At the same time that “data wealth” provides more opportunity for signal exploitation, the introduction of ad hoc networks introduces an increased risk quality issues in both sensor value and metadata issues. The artifacts shown below are examples of some sensor-based quality issues that impair downstream processing. The machine learning model used in this project was able to identify the artifacts that produce these spurious correlations, significantly improving analyst productivity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

NSRD-16: Computational Capability to Substantiate DOE-HDBk-3010 Data

Safety basis analysts throughout the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex rely heavily on the information provided in the DOE Handbook, DOE-HDBK-3010,Airborne Release Fractions/Rates and Respirable Fractions for Nonreactor Nuclear Facilities, to determine radionuclide source terms from postulated accident scenarios. In calculating source terms, analysts tend to use the DOE Handbook's bounding values on airborne release fractions (ARFs) and respirable fractions (RFs) for various categories of insults (representing potential accident release categories). This is typically due to both time constraints and the avoidance of regulatory critique. Unfortunately, these bounding ARFs/RFs represent extremely conservative values. Moreover, they were derived from very limited small-scale bench/laboratory experiments and/or from engineered judgment.Thus, the basis for the data may not be representative of the actual unique accident conditions and configurations being evaluated.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2014

Addressing Modeling Requirements for Radiation Heat Transfer

Thermal analysts address a wide variety of applications requiring the simulation of radiation heat transfer phenomena. There are gaps in the currently available modeling capabilities. Addressing these gaps would allow for the consideration of additional physics and increase confidence in simulation predictions. This document outlines a five year plan to address the current and future needs of the analyst community with regards to modeling radiation heat transfer processes. This plan represents a significant multi-year effort that must be supported on an ongoing basis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Design Document: Custom Analytical Tools and Automation for the Industrial Hygienist

This report outlines an approach for developing a modular and scalable web-based application suite, Internal Data Access and Visualization (I-DAV), that would be developed to meet the specific analytic requirements for Industrial Hygienist (IH) analysts and tank vapors Subject Matter Expert’s (SME) at the Hanford site. Through interviews and requirements elicitation with IH analyst, and on-site in depth review of workflow patterns and expected outcomes, PNNL has developed a framework for proposed collection of interdependent goal oriented software applications. Commercial off the shelf applications, which require only minimal custom code, were deployed this year as a mechanism of rapid prototyping and providing proof of concept. This report describes these efforts and accomplishments to date, as well as concepts for future applications and general enhancement of the DAV and core concepts for the I-DAV. Additional content was integrated into this report as of March 2019. Updated content was added to reflect the inclusion of I-DAV concepts and ideas, and refined versions of original concepts set forth as the work commenced and continued through the first half of FY19. New and refined concepts have been the product of ongoing weekly meetings, outreach, and elicitation with WRPS.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2019

VeraShift I/O Optimization for Ex-core Calculations with VERA

The initial release of Shift in the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) provided users with the ability to perform ex-core calculations. After this release, a task was undertaken to optimize input parameters and output of desired quantities for ex-core calculations. As requested by analysts, this report presents the detailed input and output changes made to VERA to enhance usability. Specifically, some of the major optimizations added were detector and bioshield setup using the VERA common input, updated Shift input defaults, consolidated output, and output of pin importance's. Close interaction between developers, analysts, and users enabled these useful optimization updates, which will be included in the release of VERA 4.1, and some are included in VERA 4.0.1. Under these auspices, this work will continue under the VERA Users Group (VUG).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Design Document: Custom Analytical Tools and Automation for the Industrial Hygienist

This report outlines an approach for developing a modular and scalable web-based application suite, Internal Data Access and Visualization (I-DAV), that would be developed to meet the specific analytic requirements for Industrial Hygienist (IH) analysts and tank vapors Subject Matter Expert’s (SME) at the Hanford site. Through interviews and requirements elicitation with IH analyst, and on-site in depth review of workflow patterns and expected outcomes, PNNL has developed a framework for proposed collection of interdependent goal oriented software applications. Commercial off the shelf applications, which require only minimal custom code, were deployed this year as a mechanism of rapid prototyping and providing proof of concept. This report describes these efforts and accomplishments to date, as well as concepts for future applications and general enhancement of the DAV and core concepts for the I-DAV. Additional content was integrated into this report as of March 2019. Updated content was added to reflect the inclusion of I-DAV concepts and ideas, and refined versions of original concepts set forth as the work commenced and continued through the first half of FY19. New and refined concepts have been the product of ongoing weekly meetings, outreach, and elicitation with WRPS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗