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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Grey-box and ANN-based building models for multistep-ahead prediction of indoor temperature to implement model predictive control

Model-based predictive control (MPC) strategies for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems present an opportunity to lower building energy consumption and operational costs. Such approaches rely on the development of a model to precisely forecast building thermal dynamics, such as room air temperature or heating/cooling rate, and make control-related decisions. The control-oriented modeling of building energy systems should be accurate in predicting indoor conditions and present low computational complexity. These features are the key challenge of implementing advanced control methods such as MPC. Extant studies on building modeling for MPC have focused on step-ahead forecasting techniques to forecast building thermal dynamics, while multistep-ahead forecasting is essential. Moreover, machine learning model suitable in case of the domain-based engineering expertise are also not available. To this aim, we perform a comparative analysis of the grey-box model based on a resistance-capacitance (RC) thermal network and a machine learning model composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) for multistep-ahead prediction of building thermal dynamics using current and historical data. Actual experimental data obtained from the Flexible Research Platform (FRP) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US) are used for estimation and validation purposes. The average root mean squared error (RMSE) of the grey-box and ANN models are 0.89 °C and 1.02°C, respectively. Finally, the results indicate that the grey-box model outperforms the ANN model in the considered validation periods in terms of accuracy and prediction stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

NGEE Arctic Soil Micro-warming Experiment Temperature Profiles, Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2017-2019

The reported soil temperature profile measurements (24 locations - 2 probes with 5 and 6 thermistors, respectively - Fig. 1 and Fig. 2) were initiated as part of a soil micro-warming experiment at the Council Road Mile Marker 71 Site (CN_MM71) in September 2017. From 2017 through August 2019, these were measurements of ambient pre-treatment plot conditions. This tussock tundra site (with underlying permafrost) experiences annual frost heaving that causes a vertical movement of the ground surface, hence causing some of the upper most temperature thermistors to be at surface level or above ground and recorded therefore air temperatures near the surface and not below ground soil temperature (see section on Quality Assurance). After August 2019, these measurements ended in preparation for transitioning to the experimental warming of individual plots. The reported temperature data are nominally 3-hour averages of measurements made at varying frequencies (3-hour maximum) with frequencies that depended upon power (solar) availability to operate the sensors (see section in documentation on Methods). The number of values and the standard deviation for each 3-hour average (where appropriate) are also provided. These measurements are located near the NGEE-Arctic CO2 and CH4 eddy covariance tower at the Council Road Site (US-NGC: NGEE Arctic Council, https://ameriflux.lbl.gov/sites/siteinfo/US-NGC#overview) and auxiliary data at https://doi.org/10.5440/1526749. This dataset contains four *.csv files and one *.pdf file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-Free Control of Indoor Temperatures in Residential Buildings: Convergence Analysis

Model-free control (MFC) has recently been applied in multiple fields, including indoor air temperature regulation in buildings. It is a data-enabled feedback tracking control strategy for complex systems using a simplified representation of the ultra-local approximation model through the unique information of input-output behavior. MFC is a prevailing control strategy for systems with unknown or poorly known system dynamic models. Thus, it is a relatively simple, but efficient, trajectory tracking controller. In this paper, we investigate the convergence rate of MFC when applied to controlling indoor temperatures in residential buildings subject to outdoor weather disturbances. Numerical results show that MFC is quite robust to external disturbances, and its rate of convergence is almost one, i.e., it converges Q-sublinearly (slower than linearly).

Wu, Tumin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hourly dynamic line ratings for existing transmission across the contiguous United States (preliminary results) [Slides]

The thermal rating of a transmission line depends on the rate at which heat generated by current flow through the line can be dissipated into the environment by convective and radiative cooling, keeping the conductor below a maximum operating temperature. Static or seasonal line ratings assume nearly-worst-case weather conditions (high ambient air temperature, high solar irradiance, and low wind speed), resulting in a low risk of "overrating" a line (i.e., allowing more current to flow than the line is designed for) but a high fraction of time when the line is "underrated" (i.e., able to flow more current while staying below the maximum temperature). Dynamic transmission line ratings (DLR) use real-time measurements of weather conditions, line sag, or line temperature to determine the thermal rating of transmission lines at hourly or higher time resolution, allowing for increased ratings during some (cold, windy, and/or dark) periods and correcting for overrating during other (hot, calm, and/or sunny) periods. Many studies have explored the benefits of DLR, but typically for small collections of transmission lines under a limited sample of weather conditions, leaving open the question of how widely applicable the benefits of DLR might be over diverse geographies and weather conditions. Here, we combine geospatial data on tens of thousands of transmission line routes across the contiguous United States with high-resolution hourly historical weather data for 2007-2013 to estimate the impact of DLR and other weather-adjusted rating systems. We compare static and dynamic line ratings to intermediate ratings adjusted by ambient temperature, day/night irradiance, clear-sky irradiance, and/or measured irradiance, illustrating the benefits of incorporating progressively more detailed weather data into the calculated line ratings. Moving from nighttime-adjusted ratings to clear-sky-adjusted ratings provides more benefit than moving from clear-sky-adjusted ratings to measured-irradiance-adjusted ratings. Depending on the assumed static windspeed for irradiance-adjusted-ratings, DLR either corrects for overrated hours or provides substantially increased ratings in the majority of hours on the majority of lines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Standards development for modules in high temperature micro-environments

Photovoltaic (PV) module qualification standards, IEC 61215 and IEC 61730, were designed to apply to “general open-air climates” and IEC 61730 specifically indicated applicability of ambient air temperature of 40°C. Additionally, these standards provided allowances for so-called “open rack mounted PV modules” without a clear definition of “open-rack.” These implied restrictions and allowances meant that hotter climates or thermally restrictive installation methods may not be covered by these often customer-mandated certification standards. This is particularly salient for the significant growth regions of the Middle East and India that would be expected to operate at significantly higher temperatures. The applicability of these documents raised issues over the definition of “open rack” and the fact that the geographic location is just as important as the mounting configuration in assessing the impact of the micro-environment of a PV module. This work summarizes the scientific background for IEC Technical Specification 63126:2020 ED1, titled “Guidelines for qualifying PV modules components and materials for operation at high temperatures.” This standard was recently published by the IEC and is the first step in a systematic effort to rework these standards to address the question of temperature more directly. Instead of specifying a mounting condition, we specify different suites of tests suitable for a system (PV module, mounting style, and location) defined by the 98th percentile cell temperature. With a defined temperature regime to work from, this allowed us to use existing literature research combined with additional modeling work to determine, which tests would need to be modified. This resulted in suggested changes to material thermal indices, thermal cycling temperatures, hot spot testing, ultraviolet testing, and bypass diode testing among other tests and characteristics described in this study.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent Accelerated Decadal Shift in Winter North American Temperature Patterns Under Pacific‐Atlantic Decadal Variability

Global warming and internal climate variability have changed winter temperature extreme regimes in North America, affecting droughts and wildfires in the western United States. However, how internal climate variability influences North American winter temperature extreme patterns remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the recent winter North American surface air temperature (SAT) exhibits an accelerated decadal alternation between Warm West-Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West-Warm East (CWWE) dipoles because their variations show shorter decadal periods during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989 and are regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability. While the winter WWCE dipole mainly linked to North Pacific blocking events exhibited a smaller mean amplitude during 1990–2022 than 1950–1989 due to the weakened positive PDO phase during 1990–2022 under the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the winter CWWE showed a larger mean amplitude during 1990–2022 due to the stronger negative PDO phase than during 1950–1989. Our results further suggest that the recent rapid decadal shift of North American winter temperatures is primarily attributed to the PDO variability likely due to anthropogenic warming under the positive AMO.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Are Atmospheric Models Too Cold in the Mountains? The State of Science and Insights from the SAIL Field Campaign

Mountains play an outsized role in water resource availability, and the amount and timing of water they provide depend strongly on temperature. To that end, we ask the question: How well are atmospheric models capturing mountain temperatures? We synthesize results showing that high-resolution, regionally relevant climate models produce 2-m air temperature (T2m) measurements colder than what is observed (a “cold bias”), particularly in snow-covered midlatitude mountain ranges during winter. We find common cold biases in 44 studies across global mountain ranges, including single-model and multimodel ensembles. We explore the factors driving these biases and examine the physical mechanisms, data limitations, and observational uncertainties behind T2m. Our analysis suggests that the biases are genuine and not due to observation sparsity or resolution mismatches. Cold biases occur primarily on mountain peaks and ridges, whereas valleys are often warm biased. Our literature review suggests that increasing model resolution does not clearly mitigate the bias. By analyzing data from the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) field campaign in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we test various hypotheses related to cold biases and find that local wind circulations, longwave (LW) radiation, and surface-layer parameterizations contribute to the T2m biases in this particular location. We conclude by emphasizing the value of coordinated model evaluation and development efforts in heavily instrumented mountain locations for addressing the root cause(s) of T2m biases and improving predictive understanding of mountain climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Are Atmospheric Models Too Cold in the Mountains? The State of Science and Insights from the SAIL Field Campaign

Mountains play an outsized role in water resource availability, and the amount and timing of water they provide depend strongly on temperature. To that end, we ask the question: How well are atmospheric models capturing mountain temperatures? We synthesize results showing that high-resolution, regionally relevant climate models produce 2-m air temperature (T2m) measurements colder than what is observed (a “cold bias”), particularly in snow-covered midlatitude mountain ranges during winter. We find common cold biases in 44 studies across global mountain ranges, including single-model and multimodel ensembles. We explore the factors driving these biases and examine the physical mechanisms, data limitations, and observational uncertainties behind T2m. Our analysis suggests that the biases are genuine and not due to observation sparsity or resolution mismatches. Cold biases occur primarily on mountain peaks and ridges, whereas valleys are often warm biased. Our literature review suggests that increasing model resolution does not clearly mitigate the bias. By analyzing data from the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) field campaign in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we test various hypotheses related to cold biases and find that local wind circulations, longwave (LW) radiation, and surface-layer parameterizations contribute to the T2m biases in this particular location. We conclude by emphasizing the value of coordinated model evaluation and development efforts in heavily instrumented mountain locations for addressing the root cause(s) of T2m biases and improving predictive understanding of mountain climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Temperature Trends in the Northwestern Tibetan Plateau Constrained by Ice Core Water Isotopes Over the Past 7,000 Years

Abstract The reasons for the Holocene temperature conundrum, known as the inconsistency between the reconstructed cooling and the inferred warming simulations during the Holocene, remain unclear. Temperature reconstructions from the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provide important insights for understanding the Holocene temperature conundrum due to enhanced sensitivity to climate at high altitudes. Given the significant positive correlation between air temperature and δ 18 O in precipitation over the northern TP, the stable isotopic records of ice cores recovered from this area are widely used for paleotemperature reconstruction. Here we present a new high‐resolution δ 18 O record from the Chongce ice cores to bedrock, dated back to 7 ka BP by the accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14 C dating technique. Our reconstructed temperature record shows a long‐term warming trend until ~2 ka BP, followed by an abrupt change to a relatively cool period until the start of the industrial‐era warming. This record challenges the widely recognized Holocene reconstruction from the neighboring Guliya ice core. It is also different from many previous temperature reconstructions, most of which have summer biases and show a long‐term cooling trend over the past two millennia. In addition, our record shows that temperatures during the recent decades are almost the highest during the past 7 ka BP, highlighting the unusual warming forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

Pang, Hongxi↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal extremes in regulated river systems under climate change: an application to the southeastern U.S. rivers

High river temperatures, or “thermal extremes”, can cause fish mortality and thermoelectric powerplant derating. Under climate change, projected higher air temperature and stronger surface energy fluxes will lead to increased water temperatures, exacerbating thermal extremes. However, cold hypolimnetic releases from thermally stratified reservoirs can depress tailwater temperatures and therefore alleviate thermal extremes. Thermal extremes are more harmful when they coincide with low flows, which we refer to as “hydrologic hot-dry events”. To assess multisectoral impacts of climate change over large regions, we evaluate thermal events according to three impact attributes: duration (D), intensity (I), and severity (S). We apply an established model framework to simulate streamflow and stream temperature over the southeastern US regulated river system. We quantify climate change impacts (by the 2080s under RCP8.5) by comparing historical and future periods and quantify regulation impacts by comparing unregulated and regulated scenarios. We find that climate change will exacerbate thermal extremes (all three metrics) in both unregulated and regulated scenarios, albeit less in the regulated scenario. Thermal mitigation from reservoir regulation will be stronger under climate change, decreasing the three metrics compared to the unregulated case. Even so, thermal extremes in the regulated scenario will still be more severe under climate change, and only 12.2%, 19.7%, and 26.0% of D, I, and S can be mitigated by reservoirs. Despite stronger reservoir stratification, the number of regulated river segments that experience simultaneous high temperature and low flow events (hydrologic hot-dry events) will increase by 21.4% by the 2080s under RCP8.5. These events will have a median annual duration of 10.3 days/year, over 10 times the historical value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Agile Allocation in the Tundra: A Single Growing Season of Warming Increases Nutrient Availability While Decreasing Fine-Root Length

The majority of plant biomass is located belowground in Arctic ecosystems and plant roots are responsible for the uptake of the nutrients that constrain plant growth in these infertile ecosystems. Despite performing a crucial role connecting primary producers to the soil, roots are relatively understudied in the Arctic and their functional response to a rapidly warming and increasingly variable climate is unknown. Here, we assessed whether one growing season with elevated temperatures would have an impact on nutrient uptake and allocation by applying a warming technique that increased daily air temperatures by 3.2 °C. Destructive sampling was performed at the peak of the growing season to quantify biomass pools of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), root traits, and uptake of a 15 N tracer ( 15 NH 4 + ) for the dominant plant species, Arctagrostis latifolia. We found that soil nutrient availability increased with short-term warming, but A. latifolia NH 4 + uptake remained unchanged. Fine-root length density and root biomass within the soil profile, however, were both reduced by warming. N allocation patterns across plant tissues were also altered by warming. NH 4 + uptake was best fit with a logistic model that captured the spatial relationship between roots and soil (NH 4 + uptake expressed per length fine root and NH 4 + availability expressed per unit soil volume) rather than a traditional Michaelis–Menten model. Our results indicate that short-term experimental warming can shift plant–soil interactions, suggesting that the tundra’s belowground response to elevated temperatures may be more dynamic than previously recognized.

15N tracer↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing chemistry for designing oxidation resistant FeCrAl alloys

Abstract Traditionally, FeCrAl alloys played an important role in high-temperature applications due to their ability to form a passive Al oxide film at temperatures above ~ 800 °C. Recently, FeCrAl alloys became of interest for the application of accident tolerant nuclear fuel cladding. This study covers work done at GE Research for better understanding the role of Al, Cr, and Mo in oxidation kinetics and thermodynamics. Several models and commercial prototype alloys have been tested in hydrothermal corrosion autoclave loops, at low temperature steam exposure (~ 400 °C), high temperature steam exposure (~ 1000 °C or higher), and high temperature air exposures. The results provide insights on how chromium and aluminum play a significant role in both high temperature and low temperature oxidation of FeCrAl. Additionally, machine learning tools are used to gain further insights on both predicting future optimized chemistries for balancing the properties of hydrothermal corrosion, low and high temperature steam oxidation, and thermal aging (which is exacerbated due to radiation in a nuclear reactor environment). GE plans to use this framework to further optimize the FeCrAl alloy system for use in nuclear reactor environments. Graphical abstract

Roy, Indranil (ORCID:0000000336124323)↗
DOE OSTI2020

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66% for the present day to roughly 68% to 85% by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (~5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5°C warming on the other.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gasoline fuels properties for multi-mode operation – Observations in a GDI and the CFR engine

The combustion behavior of five full boiling range RON98 gasoline blends was evaluated for multi-mode operation in a GDI and the CFR octane rating engine. The GDI engine tests were conducted with stoichiometric air-fuel ratio in spark-ignition (SI), and with air-diluted homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) mode. In the CFR engine, the knocking combustion was analyzed under standard RON testing conditions at both peak knocking lambda and stoichiometric air-fuel ratios, whereas compression ignited operation was characterized by utilizing the HCCI number test protocol. Disparate knock limited SI and HCCI combustion behavior was observed for the test fuels, despite four of the fuels having the same RON and octane sensitivity. It was found that knock-limited combustion phasing in the GDI engine did not align well with the RON. However, a detailed comparison of knock-limited SI operation in the GDI and CFR engine revealed that a more appropriate effective RON based on a common knock intensity metric (MAPO) and stoichiometric air-fuel ratio resulted in comparable knock characterization between the two engine platforms. Furthermore, the critical intake air temperature and the critical compression ratio were proposed to characterize knock-limited SI operation, while the minimum intake air heating and compression ratio were used to define a fuel's autoignition propensity for compression ignition operation in the GDI and CFR engine, respectively. Finally, each fuel's characteristic compression ratio needed to obtain knock-limited SI (KLSI) and HCCI operation was used to calculate an effective multi-mode octane number (MM-ON) based on the primary reference fuel blends.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parametric Optimization of Nanostructured Alumina Forming Austenitic Alloys

Alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) alloys provide excellent oxidation resistance through the formation of a stable alumina scale, but their relatively high Ni content might limit application in core structural components because of helium generation and swelling under irradiation. Increasing the density of nanoscale features in the microstructure is a promising route to improve sink strength and mitigate these effects. Conventional oxide dispersion–strengthened (ODS) steels achieve this through mechanical alloying (MA), but the approach is costly and difficult to scale. In this milestone, additive manufacturing was applied as an alternative pathway to fabricate nanostructured AFA (NAFA) alloys with dual precipitation of oxides and nitrides enabled by reactive atmosphere processing. In FY25, two compositions, NAFA-1 (AFA-05) and NAFA-2, were produced and compared. Both alloys achieved densities above 99% of theoretical values, but NAFA-2 exhibited microcracking associated with Nb-rich intermetallic formation, indicating the need for further chemistry optimization. Nitrogen and oxygen uptake was confirmed on selected builds, demonstrating the intended dual-precipitate dispersion. Mechanical testing showed that AM-processed NAFA alloys exceed conventionally produced ODS steels in high-temperature tensile strength and fracture toughness. Preliminary Cu ion irradiation results further suggest improved resistance compared to wrought austenitic alloys. While the current alloys are promising for their compatibility in high-temperature air or liquid Pb environments, modifications to composition will be required for long-term operation in high-temperature impure sodium systems. Future work will focus on refining alloy chemistry to suppress laser powder bed fusion–induced cracking and scaling production to reactor-relevant dimensions using directed energy deposition as a pathway toward net-shape cladding fabrication.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results

Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20 th century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP). Results show that irrigation expansion causes a rapid increase in irrigation water withdrawal, which leads to less frequent 2-meter air temperature heat extremes across heavily irrigated areas (≥4 times less likely). However, due to the irrigation-induced increase in air humidity, the cooling effect of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress is less pronounced or even reversed, depending on the heat stress metric. In summary, this study indicates that irrigation deployment is not an efficient adaptation measure to escalating human heat stress under climate change, calling for carefully dealing with the increased exposure of local people to moist-heat stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

TRACER Soil Moisture Data, Guy TX

The purpose of this study was to collect and distribute ground-truth soil water content and meteorological data in the Houston, TX, area, supporting the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, and the 2022 field campaign for the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER). The files herein contain soil water content and meteorological data for the Guy, Texas station that the Bureau of Economic Geology at UT Austin installed in the area of study during period of performance. This station produces two data files. First, the file ending with “_Soil_flagged.dat” contains mean hourly volumetric soil water content and temperature measured at 5, 10, 20 and 50 cm depths. The file ending with “_Meteoro_flagged.dat” contains mean hourly measured precipitation, air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction, and solar radiation. All data have undergone QA/QC procedures that are described by Caldwell et al. (2019) and Dorigo et al. (2013) for the soil-specific data, and EPA (2008) for the meteorological data.

precipitation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic-associated increased fluctuations of midlatitude winter temperature in the 1.5° and 2.0° warmer world

In recent decades, the interior regions of Eurasia and North America have experienced several unprecedentedly cold winters despite the global surface air temperature increases. One possible explanation of these increasing extreme cold winters comes from the so-called Warm Arctic Cold Continent (WACC) pattern, reflecting the effects of the amplified Arctic warming in driving the circulation change over surrounding continents. This study analyzed reanalysis data and model experiments forced by different levels of anthropogenic forcing. It is found that WACC exists on synoptic scales in observations, model’s historical and even future runs. In the future, the analysis suggests a continued presence of WACC but with a slightly weakened cold extreme due to the overall warming. Warm Arctic events under the warmer climate will be associated with not only a colder continent in East Asia but also a warmer continent, depending on the teleconnection process that is also complicated by the warmer Arctic. Such an increasingly association suggests a reduction in potential predictability of the midlatitude winter anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗