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MELCOR 2.2 Benchmarks of Peach Bottom NUREG/CR 7155 Uncertainty Analysis
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) performed a first-of-a-kind uncertainty analysis (UA) of the accident progression, radiological releases, and offsite consequences for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) of an unmitigated long-term station blackout (LTSBO) severe accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The objective of the UA was to evaluate the robustness of the SOARCA deterministic "best estimate results and conclusions documented in NUREG-1935, and to develop insight into the overall sensitivity of the SOARCA results to uncertainty in key modeling inputs. The study was completed in 2015 and documented in NUREG/CR-7155. Since 2015, two other SOARCA UAs were completed for two pressurized water reactor (PWR) plants. The PWR UAs incrementally updated the approach and methodology, including using the latest release of the MELCOR 2.2 computer code. There were also advances made in the state-of-the-art modeling related to NRC efforts using the Peach Bottom model in NUREG-2206, which provided the technical basis for the containment protection and release reduction rulemaking for boiling water reactors with Mark I and Mark II containments. This report documents the input model changes from the NUREG/CR-7155 study and performs a small number of reference calculations to assess the changes of the new computer code and the model input updates. The objective of the work is to verify whether the updated Peach Bottom MELCOR model and updated version of MELCOR support the conclusions formed in the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA by performing these representative calculations.
INITIAL EXPLORATION OF A NOVEL TRANSIENT ARREST SYSTEM INVOLVING FUEL HEATING
A preliminary analysis on a novel accident response system to diminish the severity of supercritical transients was conducted. The novel accident response system, called the instant shock arrest system, involves using electricity to heat the nuclear fuel at the onset of a large accidental reactivity insertion. This system is specifically designed for reactors with metallic fuel, such that the fuel is capable of conducting electricity, and being resistively heated. A reactor dynamics model of the advanced test reactor was created using the point kinetics equations and a linear reactivity feedback model to simulate how the system would effect the maximum fuel temperatures experienced during the transient. Transients with the instant shock arrest system were compare to those without it. It was found that the instant shock arrest system initially heated the fuel more than the unaffected transient but the negative reactivity inserted from such heating was enough to lower the maximum fuel temperature experienced during the transient. After simulating six different accident scenarios with reactivity insertions ranging from 0.5 \$ to 1.3 \$, it was found that the an optimal system response could reduce peak fuel temperatures during the transient by 3.5\% to 5\%. Furthermore, discussion was given on how the optimal system response could be obtained using relatively simple numerical optimization algorithms due to the smoothness of the optimization problem.
MACCS User Guide (V.4.2)
MACCS is used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and various national and international organizations for probabilistic consequence analysis of nuclear power accidents. This User Guide is intended to assist analysts in understanding the MACCS/WinMACCS model and to provide information regarding the code. This user guide version describes MACCS Version 4.2. This User Guide provides a brief description of the model history, explains how to set up and execute a problem, and informs the user of the definition of various input parameters and any constraints placed on those parameters. This report is part of a series of reports documenting MACCS. Other reports include the MACCS Theory Manual, MACCS Verification Report, Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS, as well as documentation for preprocessor codes including SecPop, MelMACCS, and COMIDA2.
MACCS User Guide (V.5.0)
MACCS is used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and various national and international organizations for probabilistic consequence analysis of nuclear power accidents. This user guide is intended to assist analysts in understanding the MACCS/MACCS-UI User Interface (UI) model and to provide information regarding the code. This user guide version describes MACCS Version 5.0, model history, explains how to set up and execute a problem, and informs the user of the definition of various input parameters and any constraints placed on those parameters. This report is part of a series of reports documenting MACCS. Other reports include the MACCS Theory Manual, MACCS Verification Report, Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS, as well as documentation for preprocessor codes including SecPop, MelMACCS, and COMIDA2.
MACCS User Guide - Version 5.2
MACCS is used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and various national and international organizations for probabilistic consequence analysis of nuclear power accidents. This user guide is intended to assist analysts in understanding the MACCS/MACCS-UI User Interface (UI) model and to provide information regarding the code. This user guide version describes MACCS Version 5.2, model history, explains how to set up and execute a problem, and informs the user of the definition of various input parameters and any constraints placed on those parameters. This report is part of a series of reports documenting MACCS. Other reports include the MACCS Theory Manual, MACCS Verification Report, Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS, as well as documentation for preprocessor codes including SecPop, MelMACCS, and COMIDA2.
Nonlinear structural crash dynamics analyses
Presented in this paper are the results of three nonlinear computer programs, KRASH, ACTION and DYCAST used to analyze the dynamic response of a twin-engine, low-wing airplane section subjected to a 8.38 m/s (27.5 ft/s) vertical impact velocity crash condition. This impact condition simulates the vertical sink rate in a shallow aircraft landing or takeoff accident. The three distinct analysis techniques for nonlinear dynamic response of aircraft structures are briefly examined and compared versus each other and the experimental data. The report contains brief descriptions of the three computer programs, the respective aircraft section mathematical models, pertinent data from the experimental test performed at NASA Langley, and a comparison of the analyses versus test results. Cost and accuracy comparisons between the three analyses are made to illustrate the possible uses of the different nonlinear programs and their future potential.
A study of the comparative performance of six lightning warning systems
An analysis of mining explosive accident reports indicates a need for clear and ample warning of approaching electrical storms to reduce injuries/fatalities due to lightning induced premature detonation. Six lightning warning devices were comparatively evaluated at three test sites. The devices tested were: (1) flash counter, (2) corona point, (3) radioactive probe, (4) field mill, (5) azimuth/range locator, and (6) triangulation locator. The test sites were chosen to provide system evaluation under varied thunderstorm conditions. The devices were tested at San Antonio, Texas, Kennedy Space Center, Florida and Langmuir Laboratory, New Mexico. Comparative performance is reviewed in terms of alarm reliability, false alarm, and failure to alarm probabilities. Lightning warning system requirements and methods of relating warning criteria to explosive hazard are discussed.
Flight manager and check-airman training
An analysis of industry incidents, accidents, and related human factors research is given. The need to develop more effective resource management training for the flight deck crewmembers is discussed with specific emphasis on flight manager and check-airman training.
Railroad safety program, task 2
Aspects of railroad safety and the preparation of a National Inspection Plan (NIP) for rail safety improvement are examined. Methodology for the allocation of inspection resources, preparation of a NIP instruction manual, and recommendations for future NIP, are described. A statistical analysis of regional rail accidents is presented with causes and suggested preventive measures included.
X-15 Concept Evolution
The historical events that led to the development of the X-15 research aircraft are presented. Some of the topics presented include: (1) manned airplane performance regions; (2) X-15 flight problems; (3) design characteristics for conceptual aircraft; (4) analysis of X-15 accident potential; (5) X-15 performance requirements; and (6) milestones in the development of the X-15.
Characterization of Space Shuttle Thermal Protection System (TPS) Materials for Return-to-Flight following the Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation
During the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation, it was determined that a large chunk of polyurethane insulating foam (= 1.67 lbs) on the External Tank (ET) came loose during Columbia's ascent on 2-1-03. The foam piece struck some of the protective Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels on the leading edge of Columbia's left wing in the mid-wing area. This impact damaged Columbia to the extent that upon re-entry to Earth, superheGed air approaching 3,000 F caused the vehicle to break up, killing all seven astronauts on board. A paper after the Columbia Accident Investigation highlighted thermal analysis testing performed on External Tank TPS materials (1). These materials included BX-250 (now BX-265) rigid polyurethane foam and SLA-561 Super Lightweight Ablator (highly-filled silicone rubber). The large chunk of foam from Columbia originated fiom the left bipod ramp of the ET. The foam in this ramp area was hand-sprayed over the SLA material and various fittings, allowed to dry, and manually shaved into a ramp shape. In Return-to-Flight (RTF) efforts following Columbia, the decision was made to remove the foam in the bipod ramp areas. During RTF efforts, further thermal analysis testing was performed on BX-265 foam by DSC and DMA. Flat panels of foam about 2-in. thick were sprayed on ET tank material (aluminum alloys). The DSC testing showed that foam material very close to the metal substrate cured more slowly than bulk foam material. All of the foam used on the ET is considered fully cured about 21 days after it is sprayed. The RTF culminated in the successful launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on 7-26-05. Although the flight was a success, there was another serious incident of foam loss fiom the ET during Shuttle ascent. This time, a rather large chunk of BX-265 foam (= 0.9 lbs) came loose from the liquid hydrogen (LH2) PAL ramp, although the foam did not strike the Shuttle Orbiter containing the crew. DMA testing was performed on foam samples taken fiom a simulated PAL ramp panel. It was found that the smooth rind on the foam facing the cable tray did significantly affect the properties of foam at the PAL ramp surface. The smooth rind increased the storage modulus E' of the foam as much as 20- 40% over a temperature range of -145 to 95 C. Because of foam loss fiom the PAL ramp, future Shuttle flights were grounded indefinitely to allow further testing to better understand foam properties. The decision was also made to remove foam from the LH2 PAL, ramp. Other RTF efforts prior to the launch of Discovery included
Creating Formal Characterizations ofRoutine Contingency Management inCommercial Aviation
Traditional approaches to safety management focus on collection of data describing unwanted states (i.e., accidents and incidents) and analysis of undesired behaviors (i.e., faults and errors) that precede those states. Thus, in the traditional view of safety, safety is both defined and measured by its absence, namely the lack of safety. In extremely high confidence systems like commercial air transport, however, opportunities to measure the absence of safety are relatively rare. Ironically, a critical barrier to measuring safety and the impact of mitigation strategies in commercial aviation is the lack of opportunities for measurement.
Initial exploration of a novel transient arrest system involving fuel heating
A preliminary analysis on a novel accident response system to diminish the severity of super- critical transients was conducted. The novel accident response system, called the instant shock arrest system, involves using electricity to heat the nuclear fuel at the onset of a large accidental reactivity insertion. This system is specifically designed for reactors with metallic fuel, such that the fuel is capable of conducting electricity, and being resistively heated. A reactor dynamics model of the advanced test reactor was created using the point kinetics equations and a linear reactivity feedback model to simulate how the system would effect the maximum fuel temperatures experienced during the transient. Transients with the instant shock arrest system were compared to those without it. It was found that the instant shock arrest system initially heated the fuel more than the unaffected transient but the negative reactivity inserted from such heating was enough to lower the maximum fuel temperature experienced during the transient. After simulating six different accident scenarios with reactivity insertions ranging from 0.5 to 1.3 dollar, it was found that an optimal system response could reduce peak fuel temperatures during the transient by 3.5% to 5%. Furthermore, discussion was given on how the optimal system response could be obtained using relatively simple numerical optimization algorithms due to the smoothness of the optimization problem. (authors)
INITIAL EXPLORATION OF A NOVEL TRANSIENT ARREST SYSTEM INVOLVING FUEL HEATING (Presentation)
A preliminary analysis on a novel accident response system to diminish the severity of supercritical transients was conducted. The novel accident response system, called the instant shock arrest system, involves using electricity to heat the nuclear fuel at the onset of a large accidental reactivity insertion. This system is specifically designed for reactors with metallic fuel, such that the fuel is capable of conducting electricity, and being resistively heated. A reactor dynamics model of the advanced test reactor was created using the point kinetics equations and a linear reactivity feedback model to simulate how the system would effect the maximum fuel temperatures experienced during the transient. Transients with the instant shock arrest system were compare to those without it. It was found that the instant shock arrest system initially heated the fuel more than the unaffected transient but the negative reactivity inserted from such heating was enough to lower the maximum fuel temperature experienced during the transient. After simulating six different accident scenarios with reactivity insertions ranging from 0.5 \$ to 1.3 \$, it was found that the an optimal system response could reduce peak fuel temperatures during the transient by 3.5% to 5%. Furthermore, discussion was given on how the optimal system response could be obtained using relatively simple numerical optimization algorithms due to the smoothness of the optimization problem.
SCALE 6.3 Modeling Strategies for Reactivity, Nuclide Inventory, and Decay Heat of Non-LWRs
To assess modeling and simulation capabilities for thermal hydraulics, accident progression, source term, and consequence analysis for non–light-water reactor (LWR) technologies, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated a collaborative project between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in FY20, which is detailed in “Volume 3: Computer Code Development Plans for Severe Accident Progression, Source Term, and Consequence Analysis.” This project demonstrated the capabilities of the MELCOR and SCALE codes to calculate accident scenarios during operation of relevant non-LWRs. The following five non-LWR concepts were selected for capability demonstration based on recently renewed industry interest in the United States to develop and deploy such reactor technologies: pebble-bed high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs), pebble-bed fluoride salt-cooled reactors (FHRs), molten salt–fueled reactors (MSRs), heat pipe reactors (HPRs), and sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs).
An Updated Examination of Aviation Accidents Associated with Turbulence, Wind Shear and Thunderstorm
One of the technical challenges within the Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies (AEST) Project of the Aviation Safety Program was to "improve and expand remote sensing and mitigation of hazardous atmospheric environments and phenomena"1. In 2012, the author performed an analysis comparing various characteristics of accidents associated with different types of atmospheric hazard environments2. This document reports an update to that analysis which was done in preparation for presenting these findings at the 2015 annual meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Specifically, an additional three years of data were available, and a time-trend analysis was added.
Material Interactions in Severe Accidents – Benchmarking the MELCOR V2.2 Eutectics Model for a BWR-3 MARK-I Station Blackout: Part I – Single Case Analysis
Here in this analysis, the two material interaction models available in the MELCOR code are benchmarked for a severe accident at a BWR under representative Fukushima Daiichi boundary conditions. This part of the benchmark investigates the impact of each material interaction model on accident progression through a detailed single case analysis. It is found that the eutectics model simulation exhibits more rapid accident progression for the duration of the accident. The slower accident progression exhibited by the interactive materials model simulation, however, allows for a greater degree of core material oxidation and hydrogen generation to occur, as well as elevated core temperatures during the ex-vessel accident phase. The eutectics model simulation exhibits more significant degradation of core components during the late in-vessel accident phase – more debris forms and relocates to the lower plenum before lower head failure. The larger debris bed observed in the eutectics model simulation also reaches higher temperatures, presenting a more significant thermal challenge to the lower head until its failure. At the end of the simulated accident scenario, however, core damage is comparable between both simulations due to significant core degradation that occurs during the ex-vessel phase in the interactive materials model simulation. A key difference between the two models’ performance is the maximum temperatures that can be reached in the core and therefore the maximum ΔT between any two components. When implementing the interactive materials model, users have the option to modify the liquefaction temperature of the ZrO 2 -interactive and UO 2 -interactive materials as a way to mimic early fuel rod failure due to material interactions. Through modification of the liquefaction of high melting point materials with significant mass, users may inadvertently limit maximum core temperatures for fuel, cladding, and debris components.