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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning of Key Variables Impacting Extreme Precipitation in Various Regions of the Contiguous United States

Abstract Amplification in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency can cause severe flooding and impose significant social and economic consequences. Variations in extreme precipitation intensity, frequencies, and return periods can be attributed to many physical variables across spatial and temporal scales. Here we employ ensemble machine learning (ML) methods, namely random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and artificial neural networks (ANN), to explore key contributing variables to monthly extreme precipitation intensity and frequency in six regions over the United States. We further establish emulators for return periods. Results show that the ML models for intensity perform better in regions with obvious seasonality (i.e., Northern Great Plains, Southern Great Plains, and West Coast) than the other three regions (Northeast, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains), while for frequency the models perform well for most regions. The Shapley additive explanation is used to help explain the relationships between extreme precipitation characteristics and identify top variables for RF and XGB. We find that latent heat flux, relative humidity, soil moisture, and large‐scale subsidence are key common variables across the regions for both monthly intensity and frequency, and their compound effects are non‐negligible. The developed ML models capture the probability and return period of extreme precipitation well for all regions and may be used for decision making (e.g., infrastructure planning and design).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-enabled discovery of ionic liquid–solvent electrolytes exhibiting high ionic conductivity

Ionic liquids (ILs), which are a class of materials with versatile nature and growing popularity, are facing impediments toward widespread usage as electrolytes due to various factors such as low ionic conductivity, high viscosity, high market price etc. One of the ways these limitations can be addressed is by mixing ILs with a molecular solvent. In a combinatorial sense, there exists an immense number of specific IL–solvent combinations. An exhaustive experimental or even simulation-based investigation of the chemical space spanned by such combinations can be extremely time-consuming, expensive, and nearly impossible. An alternative approach is to employ machine learning-based models developed from available databases. Although there exists prior literature that integrates machine learning to investigate mixtures of specific solvents with ILs, these models lack generalization necessitating development of a large number of ML models to handle various solvents. To remedy this shortcoming, as a part of designing green electrolytes with high ionic conductivity that can have potential applications in next-generation batteries and solar cells, this work aims to develop a unified machine learning model to predict ionic conductivity of any IL–solvent mixture system. In this regard, three models, namely, Random Forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN) were formulated using the NIST ILThermo database. The dataset contained 549 unique ionic liquids from 16 cation families and 81 unique solvents, representing a total of 23 712 datapoints. SHAPLEY additive explanation (SHAP) method was used to assess the impact of various features on model prediction and their significance was compared with literature to gain physical insight about the model behavior. Finally, using the developed models, approximately 2.5 million IL–solvent mixtures at five different compositions were screened at room temperature. The high-throughput screening yielded nearly 19 000 IL–solvent mixtures for which ionic conductivity was found to exceed the ionic conductivity of conventional Li-ion battery electrolyte.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthesis challenges, thermodynamic stability, and growth kinetics of La–Si–P ternary compounds

Although many new compounds have been recently predicted with the help of machine learning, the successful experimental synthesis of these compounds remains challenging. Computational insights about the thermodynamic stability and phase formation kinetics among the ground state and competing metastable phases are highly desirable to rationalize and attempt to overcome synthesis challenges experimentally. In this work, we explore synthetic challenges within ternary La–Si–P compounds through feedback between experimental and computational studies. We discuss the experimental challenges in forming three computationally predicted ternary phases (La 2 SiP, La 5 SiP 3 , and La 2 SiP 3 ). To understand the synthetic challenges, we performed molecular dynamics (MD) simulations using an accurate and efficient artificial neural network machine learning (ANN-ML) interatomic potential. We study the phase stability and formation kinetics of these ternary phases in relation to the reported and synthesized La 2 SiP 4 phase. While the growth of the La 2 SiP 4 phase can be reproduced by our MD simulation, our results indicate that the rapid formation of a Si-substituted LaP crystalline phase is a major barrier to the synthesis of the predicted La 2 SiP, La 5 SiP 3 , and La 2 SiP 3 ternary compounds, agreeing well with experimental observations. Our simulations also suggest that there is a narrow temperature window in which the La 2 SiP 3 phase can be grown from the solid–liquid interface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Selecting durable building envelope systems with machine learning assisted hygrothermal simulations database

Hygrothermal simulations provide insight into the energy performance and moisture durability of building envelope components under dynamic conditions. The inputs required for hygrothermal simulations are extensive, and carrying out simulations and analyses requires expert knowledge. An expert system, the Building Science Advisor (BSA), has been developed to predict the performance and select the energy-efficient and durable building envelope systems for different climates. The BSA consists of decision rules based on expert opinions and thousands of parametric simulation results for selected wall systems. The number of potential wall systems results in millions, too many to simulate all of them. We present how machine learning can help predict durability data, such as mold growth, while minimizing the number of simulations needed to run. The simulation results are used for training and validation of machine learning tools for predicting wall durability. We tested Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) for their applicability and model accuracy. Models developed with both methods showed adequate prediction performance (root mean square error of 0.195 and 0.209, respectively). Finally, we introduce how the information supports guidance for envelope design via an easy-to-use web-based tool that does not require the end-user to run hygrothermal simulations.

Salonvaara, Mikael↗
DOE OSTI2022

What drives the scatter of local star-forming galaxies in the BPT diagrams? A Machine Learning based analysis

ABSTRACT We investigate which physical properties are most predictive of the position of local star forming galaxies on the BPT diagrams, by means of different Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. Exploiting the large statistics from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), we define a framework in which the deviation of star-forming galaxies from their median sequence can be described in terms of the relative variations in a variety of observational parameters. We train artificial neural networks (ANN) and random forest (RF) trees to predict whether galaxies are offset above or below the sequence (via classification), and to estimate the exact magnitude of the offset itself (via regression). We find, with high significance, that parameters primarily associated to variations in the nitrogen-over-oxygen abundance ratio (N/O) are the most predictive for the [N ii]-BPT diagram, whereas properties related to star formation (like variations in SFR or EW(H α)) perform better in the [S ii]-BPT diagram. We interpret the former as a reflection of the N/O–O/H relationship for local galaxies, while the latter as primarily tracing the variation in the effective size of the S+ emitting region, which directly impacts the [S ii] emission lines. This analysis paves the way to assess to what extent the physics shaping local BPT diagrams is also responsible for the offsets seen in high redshift galaxies or, instead, whether a different framework or even different mechanisms need to be invoked.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of machine learning in the determination of impact parameter in the 132 Sn+ 124 Sn system

Here, 132 Sn + 124 Sn collisions at a beam energy of 270 MeV/nucleon were performed at the Radioactive Isotope Beam Factory (RIBF) in RIKEN to investigate the nuclear equation of state. Reconstructing the impact parameter is one of the important tasks in the experiment as it relates to many observable. In this work, we employ three commonly used algorithms in machine learning, the artificial neural network (ANN), the convolutional neural network (CNN), and the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), to determine the impact parameter by analyzing either the charged particle spectra or several features simulated with events from the ultrarelativistic quantum molecular dynamics (UrQMD) model. To closely imitate experimental data and investigate the generalizability of the trained machine learning algorithms, incompressibility of nuclear equation of state and the in-medium nucleon-nucleon cross sections are varied in the UrQMD model to generate the training data. The mean absolute error Δb between the true and the predicted impact parameter is smaller than 0.45 fm if training and testing sets are sampled from the UrQMD model with the same parameter set. However, if training and testing sets are sampled with different parameter sets, Δb would increase to 0.8 fm. The generalizability of the trained machine learning algorithms suggests that these machine learning algorithms can be used reliably to reconstruct the impact parameter in experiment.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Convenient analytical formula for cluster mean diameter and diameter dispersion after nucleation burst

Here, we propose an alternative method of estimating the mean diameter and dispersion of clusters of particles, formed in a cooling gas, right after the nucleation stage. Using a moment model developed by Friedlander [S. K. Friedlander, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 404, 354 (1983)], we derive an analytic relationship for both cluster mean diameter and diameter dispersion as a function of two of the characteristic times of the system: the cooling time and the primary constituents collision time. These formulas can be used to predict diameter and dispersion variation with process parameters, such as the initial primary constituents' concentration or cooling rate. It is also possible to use them as an input to the coagulation stage, without the need to compute complex cluster generation during the nucleation burst. We compared our results with a nodal code (NGDE) and got excellent agreement.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non-Boussinesq subgrid-scale model with dynamic tensorial coefficients

A major drawback of Boussinesq-type subgrid-scale stress models used in large-eddy simulations is the inherent assumption of alignment between large-scale strain rates and filtered subgrid-stresses. A priori analyses using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data have shown that this assumption is invalid locally as subgrid-scale stresses are poorly correlated with the large-scale strain rates [J. Bardina, J. Ferziger, and W. Reynolds, Improved subgrid-scale models for large-eddy simulation, in Proceedings of the 13th Fluid and Plasmadynamics Conference, AIAA (1980); C. Meneveau and K. Katz, Scale-invariance and turbulence models for large-eddy simulation, Ann. Rev. Fluid Mech. 32, 1 (2000)]. In the present work, a new, non-Boussinesq subgrid-scale model is presented where the model coefficients are computed dynamically. Some previous non-Boussinesq models have observed issues in providing adequate dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy [e.g., Bardina et al., Proceedings of the 13th Fluid and Plasmadynamics Conference (1980); R. A. Clark, J. Ferziger, and W.C. Reynolds. Evaluation of subgrid-scale models using an accurately simulated turbulent flow, J. Fluid Mech. 91, 1 (1979); S. Stolz and N. A. Adams, An approximate deconvolution procedure for large-eddy simulation, Phys. Fluids 11, 1699 (1999)]; however, the present model is shown to provide sufficient dissipation using dynamic coefficients. Modeled subgrid-scale Reynolds stresses satisfy the consistency requirements of the governing equations for large-eddy simulation (LES), vanish in laminar flow and at solid boundaries, and have the correct asymptotic behavior in the near-wall region of a turbulent boundary layer. The new model, referred to as the dynamic tensor-coefficient Smagorinsky model (DTCSM), has been tested in simulations of canonical flows: decaying and forced homogeneous isotropic turbulence, and wall-modeled turbulent channel flow at high Reynolds numbers. The results show favorable agreement with DNS data. It has been shown that DTCSM offers similar predictive capabilities as the dynamic Smagorinsky model for canonical flows. In order to assess the performance of DTCSM in more complex flows, wall-modeled simulations of high Reynolds number flow over a Gaussian bump (Boeing speed bump) exhibiting smooth-body flow separation are performed. Predictions of surface pressure and skin friction, compared against DNS and experimental data, show improved accuracy from DTCSM in comparison to existing static coefficient (Vreman) and dynamic Smagorinsky model. The computational cost of performing LES with this model is up to 15% higher than the dynamic Smagorinsky model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Use of Machine Learning Models for Predicting the Dielectric Strength of Gases

Technological advancements in high voltage systems have pushed sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) to its operational limits. Furthermore, this gas has other drawbacks including a high liquefaction temperature and a high global warming potential. Therefore, there has been an urgent need to find alternative gases with high dielectric strength (DS). In this work, density functional theory (DFT) is used to calculate molecular descriptors that are fed into an artificial neural network (ANN) and a random forest (RF). These machine learning (ML) models are then used to predict the DS for hundreds of molecules. A finite element model (FEM) is also used to calculate the electric field profile of multiple simple electrode geometries as the applied voltage to the system is increased. Results indicate that the random forest model has better generalization to unseen data than the neural network. The highest DS value predicted by the RF was 2.16 relative to the experimental DS of SF6. The results also demonstrate how choosing a gas with a higher DS and a geometry with minimal edges and corners can significantly increase the operating voltage of an electrical system. Due to its superior generalization, the RF represents the most promising path toward an accurate DS predictor once sufficient experimental data are available.

Mileski, Matthew [AFIT]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven Cyberattack Detection for Photovoltaic (PV) Systems through Analyzing Micro-PMU Data

With increasing exposure to software-based sensing and control, Photovoltaic (PV) systems are facing higher risks of cyber attacks. Here, to ensure the system stability and minimize potential economic losses, it is imperative to monitor operating states and detect attacks at the early stage. To meet this demand, Micro-Phasor Measurement Units (μPMU) are increasingly popular in monitoring distribution networks. However, due to the relatively low sampling rate, μPMU has not yet been used to detect and classify cyber-attacks in power electronics enabled smart grid. To our knowledge, this is one of the first attempts to use μPMU to detect cyber attacks that degrade the performance of power electronics systems. We propose to apply data-driven methods on micro-PMU data to implement attack detection. We have evaluated data-driven methods, including decision tree (DT), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network (CNN). The proposed CNN model achieves the required performances with the highest 99.23% accuracy and 0.9963 F 1 score.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Automated Generation of Integrated Digital and Spiking Neuromorphic Machine Learning Accelerators

The growing numbers of application areas for artificial intelligence (AI) methods have led to an explosion of domain-specific accelerators that could support every new machine learning (ML) algorithm advancement, clearly highlighting the need for a capability to quickly and automatically transition from algorithm definition to hardware implementation and explore design space along a variety of SWaP (size, weight and Power). The software defined architectures (SODA) synthesizer implements a compiler-based modular infrastructure for the end-to-end generation of machine learning accelerators from high-level frameworks to hardware description language. At the same time, neuromorphic computing, by mimicking how the brain operates, promises to perform artificial intelligence tasks at efficiencies orders of magnitude higher than the current conventional tensor-processing based accelerators, as demonstrated by a variety of specialized designs leveraging Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs). Nevertheless, the mapping of an artificial neural network (ANN) to solutions supporting SNNs is still a non-trivial and very device-specific task, and completely lack the possibility to design hybrid systems that integrate conventional and spiking neural models. In this paper we discuss the support for such an integrated generation leveraging the SODA Synthesizer framework and its modular structure. In particular, we present a new MLIR dialect (part of the SODA frontend) that allows expressing spiking neural network features (e.g., available resources, spiking sequences, analog signal reading, etc.) and illustrate how it enables mapping to Spiking Neurons and deployment to the related specialized hardware (which, in the digital domain, could be generated through the other existing layers of the SODA Synthesizer). We then discuss the opportunities for even deeper integration afforded by the hardware compilation infrastructure, providing a path towards the generation of complex heterogeneous artificial intelligence systems.

Curzel, Serena↗
DOE OSTI2024

Artificial Neural Network-based State Estimation for Low Observable, Unbalanced Microgrids for Microgrid Building Blocks

The microgrid building blocks (MBB) were proposed as microgrid components with combined sub-components with power conversion, communication, and microgrid control capability, or a subset of such sub-components. This work addresses the microgrid controller, present in an MBB, which requires accurate state estimation to perform its tasks, including for monitoring, power flow (dispatch), fault detection, etc. In this paper, an artificial neural network (ANN)-based framework for state estimation is proposed for an MBB, especially for unbalanced and low observable microgrids. To overcome the challenge of low observability in unbalanced systems, a concept of extended adjacent matrix is introduced to reduce the required number of measurements for state estimation. Addressing the challenges, a feed forward neural network (FNN) is utilized to enhance estimation accuracy and reliability with the reduced number of measurements. The proposed state estimation is validated through extensive simulations on a microgrid, which was achieved from the modified IEEE 34-bus distribution test feeder with multiple distributed energy resources (DERs) and demonstrated superior performance in estimation accuracy and low observability.

Choi, Jongchan↗
DOE OSTI2023

1-D Convolutional Graph Convolutional Networks for Fault Detection in Distributed Energy Systems

This paper presents a 1-D convolutional and graph convolutional networks for fault detection in microgrids. The combination of 1-D convolutional neural networks (1D-CNN) and graph convolutional networks (GCN) helps extract both spatial-temporal correlations from the voltage measurements in microgrids. The fault detection scheme includes fault event detection, fault type and phase classification, and fault location. There are five neural network model training to handle these tasks. Transfer learning and fine-tuning are applied to reduce training efforts. The combined 1-D convolutional and graph convolutional networks (1D-CGCN) is compared with the traditional ANN structure on the Potsdam 13-bus microgrid dataset. The accuracy of 99.5%, 98.4%, 99.2%, and 95.5% are achieved in fault event detection, fault type classification, fault phase identification, and fault location respectively. The detailed confusion matrices of fault type and fault phase classification are provided for validation.

deep neural network↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical Investigation of a Central Fuel Property Hypothesis Under Boosted Spark-Ignition Conditions

In the present work, a central fuel property hypothesis (CFPH), which states that fuel properties are sufficient to provide an indication of a fuel’s performance irrespective of its chemical composition, was numerically investigated. In particular, the objective of the study was to determine whether Research Octane Number (RON) and Motor Octane Number (MON), as fuel properties, are sufficient to describe a fuel’s knock-limited performance under boosted spark-ignition (SI) conditions within the framework of CFPH. To this end, four TPRF-bioblendstock surrogates having different compositions but matched RON (=98) and MON (=90), were first generated using a non-linear regression model based on artificial neural network (ANN). Additionally, three unconventional bioblendstocks were included in the analysis: di-isobutylene (DIB), isobutanol, and Anisole. Skeletal reaction mechanisms were generated for the TPRF-DIB, TPRF-isobutanol, and TPRF-anisole blends from a detailed kinetic mechanism. Thereafter, numerical simulations were performed for the fuel surrogates using the skeletal mechanisms and a virtual cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine model, under a representative boosted operating condition. In the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model, the G-equation approach was employed to track the turbulent flame front and the well-stirred reactor model combined with the multi-zone binning strategy was used to capture auto-ignition in the end-gas. In addition, laminar flame speed (LFS) was tabulated for each blend as a function of pressure, temperature, and equivalence ratio a priori, and the lookup tables were used to prescribe laminar flame speed as an input to the G-equation model. Parametric spark timing sweeps were performed for each fuel blend to determine the corresponding knock-limited spark advance (KLSA) and 50% burn point (CA50) at the respective KLSA timing. It was observed that despite same RON, MON, and engine operating conditions, the TPRF-anisole blend exhibited markedly different knock-limited performance from the other three blends. This deviation from the octane index (OI) expectation was shown to be caused by differences in laminar flame speed. However, it was found that relatively large fuel-specific differences in LFS (>20%) would have to be present to cause any appreciable deviation from the OI framework. Otherwise, RON and MON would still be robust enough to predict a fuel’s knock-limited performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical Investigation of a Central Fuel Property Hypothesis under Boosted Spark-ignition Conditions

In the present work, a central fuel property hypothesis (CFPH), which states that fuel properties are sufficient to provide an indication of a fuel's performance irrespective of its chemical composition, was numerically investigated In particular, the objective of the study was to determine whether Research Octane Number (RON) and Motor Octane Number (MON), as fuel properties, are sufficient to describe a fuel's knock-limited performance under boosted spark-ignition (SI) conditions within the framework of CFPH. To this end, four TPRF-bioblendstock surrogates having different compositions but matched RON (= 98) and MON (= 90), were first generated using a non-linear regression model based on artificial neural network (ANN). Three unconventional bioblendstocks were included in the analysis: Di-isobutylene (DIB), Isobutanol and Anisole. Skeletal reaction mechanisms were generated for the TPRF-DIB, TPRF-isobutanol and TPRF-anisole blends from a detailed kinetic mechanism. Thereafter, numerical simulations were performed for the fuel surrogates using the skeletal mechanisms and a virtual cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine model, under a representative boosted operating condition. In the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model, the G-equation approach was employed to track the turbulent flame front and the well-stirred reactor model combined with multi-zone binning strategy was used to capture auto-ignition in the end-gas. In addition, laminar flame speed was tabulated for each blend as a function of pressure, temperature and equivalence ratio a priori, and the lookup tables were used to prescribe laminar flame speed as an input to the G-equation model. Parametric spark timing sweeps were performed for each fuel blend to determine the corresponding knock-limited spark advance (KLSA) and 50% burn point (CA50) at the respective KLSA timing. It was observed that despite same RON, MON and engine operating conditions, the TPRF-Anisole blend exhibited markedly different knock-limited performance from the other three blends. This deviation from the octane index (DI) expectation was shown to be caused by differences in laminar flame speed (LFS). However; it was found that relatively large fuel-specific differences in LFS (> 20%) would have to be present to cause any appreciable deviation from the 01 framework. Otherwise, RON and MON would still be robust enough to predict a fuel's knock-limited performance.

Pal, Pinaki↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the Cetane Number, Yield Sooting Index, Kinematic Viscosity, and Cloud Point for Catalytically Upgraded Pyrolysis Oil Using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract The conversion of biomass using fast pyrolysis has the potential to be significantly less expensive at scale compared to alternative methods such as fermentation and gasification. Selective upgrading of the products of fast pyrolysis through chemical catalysis produces compounds with lower oxygen content and lower acidity; however, identifying the specific catalytic pathways for producing viable fuels and fuel additives often requires a trial-and-error approach. Specifically, key properties of the compounds must be experimentally tested to evaluate the viability of the resultant compounds. The present work proposes predictive models constructed with artificial neural networks (ANNs) for cetane number (CN), yield sooting index (YSI), kinematic viscosity (KV), and cloud point (CP), with blind test set median absolute errors of 5.14 cetane units, 3.36 yield sooting index units, 0.07 millimeters squared per second, and 4.89 degrees Celsius, respectively. Furthermore, the cetane number, yield sooting index, kinematic viscosity, and cloud point were predicted for over three hundred expected products from the catalytic upgrading of pyrolysis oil. It was discovered that 130 of these compounds have predicted cetane numbers greater than 40, with four of these compounds possessing predicted yield sooting index values significantly less than that of diesel fuel and predicted viscosities and cloud points comparable to that of diesel fuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid Improved Empirical Mode Decomposition and Artificial Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Critical Heat Flux (CHF)

Three Hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) models namely radial basis function (RBF), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) combined with empirical mode decomposition (EMD) are developed for CHF predictive modelling using CHF experimental databases.First, the original experimental inputs data series are decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residual by EMD, whose components are divided into high, medium and low components. The performance parameters of the hybrid models indicates that the root mean square error (RMSE) are 0.8831, 0.6522, and 0.4149; the mean absolute error (MAE) are 0.6697, 0.4636, and 0.1935. The values of the R-square of the developed prediction approach utilizing EMD-RBF, EMD-GRNN, and EMD-MLP models are 0.8553, 0.9302, and 0.9818, and the index of agreement are 0.9464, 0.9700, and 0.9894., The value of the R-square and the index of agreement of the proposed models are much higher than those of the simple models .The Pearson's test results show that the association strength between the measured and the predicted values of the proposed model EMD-MLP is the strongest. These results show the following: (a) compared with other related, recent studies, the prediction accuracy of the hybrid model EMD- MLP proposed in this research is the best hybrid model; (b) the proposed hybrid model (EMD-MLP) attains superior performance compared with simple models.

Djeddou, Messaoud↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of machine learning to estimate fireball characteristics and their uncertainty from infrared spectral data

Experiments or events involving high explosives (HE) can be monitored remotely by infrared (IR) sensors to gather information about the configuration or materials involved in the device. Researchers at the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) developed a phenomenological model for HE fireball spectra in the IR range that allows for parameters to be extracted from Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) data. This model includes parameters tied to physical characteristics of the fireball: temperature, size, soot, and gas concentrations. Previous works have sought to recover these parameters by the fitting of either whole spectra or select wavenumber bands to this phenomenological model. Difficulties arise due to the complex relationships between the parameters to be fit. Uncertainty quantification of the estimated fireball parameters is also problematic since HE experiments do not have any ground truth information on the parameters. It is suggested that artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches may be well suited to this problem, because of their ability to capture complex and highly nonlinear relationships. As such, this work seeks to explore the efficacy of deep artificial neural networks (DNNs) for this problem of parameter recovery from spectra and to also investigate the uncertainty of recovering the fireball parameters from FTIR data. Networks are designed using the hyperparameter optimization tool Hyperopt and trained/tested on artificial data generated using the phenomenological model developed by AFIT. The results of applying the network to the artificial data set are compared to a physics-based band approach that uses a selected number of bands based on their physical properties. Information on the uncertainty of estimating parameters from remotely sensed experimental data is obtained by treating the accuracy of the DNN model on artificial data as an upper bound and by examining the impact of emissivity due to soot on parameter estimation error; the results for artificial data are likely to be optimistic as compared to recovering parameters from experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗