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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Recent highlights from GENIE v3

Abstract The release of GENIE v3.0.0 was a major milestone in the long history of the GENIE project, delivering several alternative comprehensive neutrino interaction models, improved charged-lepton scattering simulations, a range of beyond the Standard Model simulation capabilities, improved experimental interfaces, expanded core framework capabilities, and advanced new frameworks for the global analysis of neutrino scattering data and tuning of neutrino interaction models. Steady progress continued following the release of GENIE v3.0.0. New tools and a large number of new physics models, comprehensive model configurations, and tunes have been made publicly available and planned for release in v3.2.0. This article highlights some of the most recent technical and physics developments in the GENIE v3 series.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Circular Collider Feasibility Study Report

Volume 3 of the FCC Feasibility Report presents studies related to civil engineering, the development of a project implementation scenario, and environmental and sustainability aspects. The report details the iterative improvements made to the civil engineering concepts since 2018, taking into account subsurface conditions, accelerator and experiment requirements, and territorial considerations. It outlines a technically feasible and economically viable civil engineering configuration that serves as the baseline for detailed subsurface investigations, construction design, cost estimation, and project implementation planning. Additionally, the report highlights ongoing subsurface investigations in key areas to support the development of an improved 3D subsurface model of the region. The report describes the development of the project scenario based on the ‘avoid-reduce-compensate’ iterative optimisation approach. The reference scenario balances optimal physics performance with territorial compatibility, implementation risks, and costs. Environmental field investigations covering almost 600 hectares of terrain—including numerous urban, economic, social, and technical aspects—confirmed the project’s technical feasibility and contributed to the preparation of essential input documents for the formal project authorisation phase. The summary also highlights the initiation of public dialogue as part of the authorisation process. The results of a comprehensive socio-economic impact assessment, which included significant environmental effects, are presented. Even under the most conservative and stringent conditions, a positive benefit-cost ratio for the FCC-ee is obtained. Finally, the report provides a summary of the studies conducted to document the current state of the environment.

Benedikt, M. [European Organization for Nuclear Re↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Circular Collider Feasibility Study Report

In response to the 2020 Update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics , the Future Circular Collider (FCC) Feasibility Study was launched as an international collaboration hosted by CERN. This report describes the FCC integrated programme , which consists of two stages: an electron-positron collider (FCC-ee) in the first phase, serving as a high-luminosity Higgs, top, and electroweak factory; followed by a proton-proton collider (FCC-hh) at the energy frontier in the second phase. The FCC-ee is designed to operate at four key centre-of-mass energies: the Z pole, the WW pair production threshold, the ZH production peak, and the top/anti-top production threshold—each delivering the highest possible luminosities to four experiments. Over 15 years of operation, FCC-ee will produce more than 6 trillion Z bosons, 200 million WW pairs, nearly 3 million Higgs bosons, and 2 million top anti-top pairs. Precise energy calibration at the Z pole and WW threshold will be achieved through frequent resonant depolarisation of pilot bunches. The sequence of operation modes between the Z, WW, and ZH substages remains flexible. The FCC-hh will operate at a centre-of-mass energy of approximately 85 TeV—nearly an order of magnitude higher than the LHC—and is designed to deliver 5 to 10 times the integrated luminosity of the upcoming High-Luminosity LHC. Its mass reach for direct discovery extends to several tens of TeV. In addition to proton-proton collisions, the FCC-hh is capable of supporting ion-ion, ion-proton, and lepton-hadron collision modes. This second volume of the Feasibility Study Report presents the complete design of the FCC-ee collider, its operation and staging strategy, the full-energy booster and injector complex, required accelerator technologies, safety concepts, and technical infrastructure. It also includes the design of the FCC-hh hadron collider, development of high-field magnets, hadron injector options, and key technical systems for FCC-hh.

Benedikt, M. [European Organization for Nuclear Re↗
DOE OSTI2021

Meanders as a scaling motif for understanding of floodplain soil microbiome and biogeochemical potential at the watershed scale

Abstract Background Biogeochemical exports from watersheds are modulated by the activity of microorganisms that function over micron scales. Here, we tested the hypothesis that meander-bound regions share a core microbiome and exhibit patterns of metabolic potential that broadly predict biogeochemical processes in floodplain soils along a river corridor. Results We intensively sampled the microbiomes of floodplain soils located in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the East River, Colorado. Despite the very high microbial diversity and complexity of the soils, we reconstructed 248 quality draft genomes representative of subspecies. Approximately one third of these bacterial subspecies was detected across all three locations at similar abundance levels, and ~ 15% of species were detected in two consecutive years. Within the meander-bound floodplains, we did not detect systematic patterns of gene abundance based on sampling position relative to the river. However, across meanders, we identified a core floodplain microbiome that is enriched in capacities for aerobic respiration, aerobic CO oxidation, and thiosulfate oxidation with the formation of elemental sulfur. Given this, we conducted a transcriptomic analysis of the middle floodplain. In contrast to predictions made based on the prominence of gene inventories, the most highly transcribed genes were relatively rare amoCAB and nxrAB (for nitrification) genes, followed by genes involved in methanol and formate oxidation, and nitrogen and CO 2 fixation. Within all three meanders, low soil organic carbon correlated with high activity of genes involved in methanol, formate, sulfide, hydrogen, and ammonia oxidation, nitrite oxidoreduction, and nitrate and nitrite reduction. Overall, the results emphasize the importance of sulfur, one-carbon and nitrogen compound metabolism in soils of the riparian corridor. Conclusions The disparity between the scale of a microbial cell and the scale of a watershed currently limits the development of genomically informed predictive models describing watershed biogeochemical function. Meander-bound floodplains appear to serve as scaling motifs that predict aggregate capacities for biogeochemical transformations, providing a foundation for incorporating riparian soil microbiomes in watershed models. Widely represented genetic capacities did not predict in situ activity at one time point, but rather they define a reservoir of biogeochemical potential available as conditions change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced biochemical sensing with high- Q transmission resonances in free-standing membrane metasurfaces

Optical metasurfaces provide solutions to label-free biochemical sensing by localizing light resonantly beyond the diffraction limit, thereby selectively enhancing light–matter interactions for improved analytical performance. However, high-Q resonances in metasurfaces are usually achieved in the reflection mode, which impedes metasurface integration into compact imaging systems. Here, we demonstrate a metasurface platform for advanced biochemical sensing based on the physics of the bound states in the continuum (BIC) and electromagnetically induced transparency (EIT) modes, which arise when two interfering resonances from a periodic pattern of tilted elliptic holes overlap both spectrally and spatially, creating a narrow transparency window in the mid-infrared spectrum. We experimentally measure these resonant peaks observed in transmission mode (Q ~ 734 at λ ~ 8.8 µm) in free-standing silicon membranes and confirm their tunability through geometric scaling. We also demonstrate the strong coupling of the BIC-EIT modes with a thinly coated PMMA film on the metasurface, characterized by a large Rabi splitting (32 cm -1 ) and biosensing of protein monolayers in transmission mode. Our new photonic platform can facilitate the integration of metasurface biochemical sensors into compact and monolithic optical systems while being compatible with scalable manufacturing, thereby clearing the way for on-site biochemical sensing in everyday applications.

Rosas, Samir [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2020

Genome-resolved metagenomics and metatranscriptomics of microbial communities in three meander-bound floodplain soils along the East River, Colorado.

This dataset comprises paired environmental and genomic data for soil samples collected across meander-bound floodplains G (ERMG), L (ERML) and Z (ERMZ). A total of 96 soil samples (32 per floodplain) from the ~ 10-25 cm layer were collected in September 2015, during base flow conditions. An additional 32 soil samples were collected from ERML in September 2016, including three samples from a depth just above the water table. A subset of samples (14) collected in 2016 were used for metatranscriptomics as well as metagenomics. The data package includes: 1) A spread sheet with sample names, location and depth by meander-bound floodplain. 2) Total organic carbon (TOC), total inorganic carbon (TIC), total carbon (TC = TOC + TIC), total nitrogen (TN), and the TOC to TN ratio (TOC:N) from 2015 subsamples. 3) Soil chemistry for 2016 subsamples. 4) A spread sheet with elevation, Easting, Northing, and topographic position index (TPI) for each site sampled in 2015. 5) A kml file, which can be viewed in Google Earth, with the locations of the 96 soil sampling sites along the East River Watershed Floodplain in Colorado. Metagenomics and metatranscriptomics data, as well as reconstructed genomes, are available elsewhere (see data package methods and bioRxiv preprint for links to the data). 6) Two sets of reconstructed genomes with overlapping members (see bioRxiv preprint for description and associated data). Metagenomes and metatranscriptomes are available elsewhere (see data package methods and bioRxiv preprint). To view tar.gz files, the following software can be used: https://www.gnu.org/software/tar/, https://www.7-zip.org/.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Propagation of the 2014–2016 Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave Through the Salish Sea

Effects and impacts of the Northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014–2016 on the inner coastal estuarine waters of the Salish Sea were examined using a combination of monitoring data and an established three-dimensional hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model of the region. The anomalous high temperatures reached the U.S. Pacific Northwest continental shelf toward the end of 2014 and primarily entered the Salish Sea waters through an existing strong estuarine exchange. Elevated temperatures up to + 2.3°C were observed at the monitoring stations throughout 2015 and 2016 relative to 2013 before dissipating in 2017. The hydrodynamic and biogeochemical responses to this circulating high-temperature event were examined using the Salish Sea Model over a 5-year window from 2013 to 2017. Responses of conventional water-quality indicator variables, such as temperature and salinity, nutrients and phytoplankton, zooplankton, dissolved oxygen, and pH, were evaluated relative to a baseline without the marine heatwave forcing. The simulation results relative to 2014 show an increase in biological activity (+14%, and 6% Δ phytoplankton biomass, respectively) during the peak heatwave year 2015 and 2016 propagating toward higher zooplankton biomass (+14%, +18% Δ mesozooplankton biomass). However, sensitivity tests show that this increase was a direct result of higher freshwater and associated nutrient loads accompanied by stronger estuarine exchange with the Pacific Ocean rather than warming due to the heatwave. Strong vertical circulation and mixing provided mitigation with only ≈+0.6°C domain-wide annual average temperature increase within Salish Sea, and served as a physical buffer to keep waters cooler relative to the continental shelf during the marine heatwave.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biophysical model of eelgrass and water quality in Coos Bay, OR shows greater mitigation potential for ocean acidification than hypoxia

Seagrass beds provide important ecosystem services and are valued, in part, for their potential to mediate stressors such as ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) for sensitive species. However, the susceptibility of seagrasses to anthropogenic impacts and recent declines motivate the need to better understand the drivers of seagrass and the water quality consequences that occur with variation in seagrass abundance. To meet this need, we leveraged existing monitoring data (water quality and seagrass), hydrodynamic circulation model, and biogeochemical model framework with seagrass submodel, to produce a biophysical model of Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, U.S. The model includes biogeochemical processes involving water quality, plankton, seagrass, and sediment-water interactions. Ecosystem models like this are useful for evaluating complex estuarine systems because they allow us to extend our understanding of system dynamics beyond existing observations and perform experiments to identify the processes driving observed patterns. We used the biophysical model of Coos Bay to evaluate the dynamics of water quality and native eelgrass (Zostera marina) under three eelgrass abundance scenarios (zero eelgrass, current extent, and maximum observed extent) to elucidate the relationship between eelgrass and OAH. Including eelgrass in the Coos Bay model produced results that more closely resembled water quality observations - dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were more dynamic in simulations with eelgrass, often having both higher highs and lower lows. While there were some areas of the estuary where DO improved with the addition of eelgrass to the model there was overall a small net increase in harmful DO conditions (based on a salmon physiological threshold). In contrast, ocean acidification conditions, pH and calcium carbonate saturation state for aragonite (Ω), were improved (based on oyster requirements) with the addition of eelgrass - although the magnitude of improvement differed seasonally and spatially. Our new model represents a useful tool - one which accounts for and controls the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes - to evaluate conditions that confer resilience or enhance vulnerability to OAH in an important Pacific Northwest coastal estuary and results can inform the OAH-related dynamics occurring in other eastern boundary current estuaries.

FVCOM-ICM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Structure and Function of the Zinc Binding Protein ZrgA from Vibrio cholerae

ATP binding cassette (ABC) transporters are the primary means by which bacteria acquire trace elements from the environment. They rely on solute binding proteins (SBPs) to bind the relevant substrate and deliver it to the integral membrane permease for ATP-powered import into the cytoplasm. SBPs of cluster A-I are known to facilitate the transport of essential metals zinc, manganese, and iron, and many have been characterized to date. A group of ABC transporter operons dubbed zinc-regulated genes (zrg) have recently been shown to transport zinc with putative SBPs (zrgA) bearing no homology to the classical cluster A-I family, and a recent crystal structure of a representative protein from Pseudomonas aeruginosa shows no structural similarity to classical SBPs. Thus, the ZrgA proteins appear to represent a newly discovered family of zinc SBPs widespread among Gram-negative bacteria, including human pathogens. Here, we have determined the crystal structure of ZrgA from Vibrio cholerae and characterized its zinc binding in vitro and function in vivo. We also assessed the role of a histidine-rich sequence that appears to be a hallmark of ZrgA proteins that is particularly long in V. cholerae ZrgA. The results show that the zrgA gene is critical to the function of the operon, consistent with a function as an SBP in this system. Further, the His-rich region is not essential to the function of ZrgA, but it does provide additional zinc binding sites in vitro. The structure and zinc binding data for ZrgA reveal interesting differences between it and its homologue from P. aeruginosa, illustrating diversity within this little-studied protein family.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Virtual Diagnostic Suite for Electron Beam Prediction and Control at FACET-II

We discuss the implementation of a suite of virtual diagnostics at the FACET-II facility currently under commissioning at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. The diagnostics will be used for the prediction of the longitudinal phase space along the linac, spectral reconstruction of the bunch profile, and non-destructive inference of transverse beam quality (emittance) while using edge radiation at the injector dogleg and bunch compressor locations. These measurements will be folded into adaptive feedbacks and Machine Learning (ML)-based reinforcement learning controls to improve the stability and optimize the performance of the machine for different experimental configurations. In this paper we describe each of these diagnostics with expected measurement results that are based on simulation data and discuss progress towards implementation in regular operations.

Emma, Claudio (ORCID:0000000247191831)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Two-Stage Wildlife Event Classification for Edge Deployment

Camera-based wildlife monitoring is often overwhelmed by non-target triggers and slowed by manual review or cloud-dependent inference, which can prevent timely intervention for high stakes human–wildlife conflicts. Our key contribution is a deployable, fully offline edge vision sensor that achieves near-real-time, highly accurate wildlife event classification by combining detector-based empty-image suppression with a lightweight classifier trained with a staged transfer-learning curriculum. Specifically, Stage 1 uses a pretrained You Only Look Once (YOLO)-family detector for permissive animal localization and empty-trigger suppression, and Stage 2 uses a lightweight EfficientNet-based binary classifier to confirm puma on detector crops and gate downstream actions. Our design is robust to low-quality nighttime monochrome imagery (motion blur, low contrast, illumination artifacts, and partial-body captures) and operates using commercially available components in connectivity-limited settings. In field deployments running since May 2025, end-to-end latency from camera trigger to action command is approximately 4 s. Ablation studies using a dataset of labeled wildlife images (pumas, not pumas) show that the two-stage approach substantially reduces false alarms in identifying pumas relative to a full-image classifier while maintaining high recall. On the held-out test set (N = 1434 events), the proposed two-stage cascade achieves precision 0.983, recall 0.975, F1 0.979, accuracy 0.986, and balanced accuracy 0.983, with only 8 false positives and 12 false negatives. The system can be easily adapted for other species, as demonstrated by rapid retraining of the second stage to classify ringtails. Downstream responses (e.g., notifications and optional audio/light outputs) provide flexible actuation capabilities that can be configured to support intervention.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

RELICS: The Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey and the Brightest High- z Galaxies

Massive foreground galaxy clusters magnify and distort the light of objects behind them, permitting a view into both the extremely distant and intrinsically faint galaxy populations. Here we present the $z\sim 6\mbox{--}8$ candidate high-redshift galaxies from the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS), a Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescope survey of 41 massive galaxy clusters spanning an area of ≈200 arcmin2. These clusters were selected to be excellent lenses, and we find similar high-redshift sample sizes and magnitude distributions as the Cluster Lensing And Supernova survey with Hubble (CLASH). We discover 257, 57, and eight candidate galaxies at z ~ 6, 7, and 8 respectively, (322 in total). The observed (lensed) magnitudes of the z ~ 6 candidates are as bright as AB mag ~23, making them among the brightest known at these redshifts, comparable with discoveries from much wider, blank-field surveys. RELICS demonstrates the efficiency of using strong gravitational lenses to produce high-redshift samples in the epoch of reionization. These brightly observed galaxies are excellent targets for follow-up study with current and future observatories, including the James Webb Space Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

RELICS: A Very Large ( θ E ~ 40") Cluster Lens—RXC J0032.1+1808

Extensive surveys with the Hubble Space Telescope over the past decade, targeting some of the most massive clusters in the sky, have uncovered dozens of galaxy cluster strong lenses. The massive cluster strong-lens scale is typically θ E ~ 10'' to ~30''–35'', with only a handful of clusters known with Einstein radii θ E ~ 40'' or above (for z source = 2, nominally). Here we report another very large cluster lens, RXC J0032.1+1808 (z = 0.3956), the second-richest cluster in the redMapper cluster catalog and the 85th most massive cluster in the Planck Sunyaev–Zel'dovich catalog. With our light-traces-mass and fully parametric approaches, we construct strong-lensing models based on 18 multiple images of five background galaxies newly identified in the Hubble data, mainly from the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS), in addition to a known sextuply imaged system in this cluster. Furthermore, we compare these models to Lenstool and GLAFIC models that were produced independently as part of the RELICS program. All models reveal a large effective Einstein radius of θ E ≃ 40'' (z source = 2), owing to the obvious concentration of substructures near the cluster center. Although RXC J0032.1+1808 has a very large critical area and high lensing strength, only three magnified high-redshift candidates are found within the field targeted by RELICS. Nevertheless, we expect many more high-redshift candidates will be seen in wider and deeper observations with Hubble or the James Webb Space Telescope. Finally, the comparison between several algorithms demonstrates that the total error budget is largely dominated by systematic uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

RELICS: Properties of z ≥ 5.5 Galaxies Inferred from Spitzer and Hubble Imaging, Including A Candidate z ~ 6.8 Strong [O iii] emitter

We present constraints on the physical properties (including stellar mass, age, and star formation rate) of 207 6 ≲ z ≲ 8 galaxy candidates from the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS) and Spitzer-RELICS surveys. We measure photometry using T-PHOT and perform spectral energy distribution fitting using EA z Y and BAGPIPES. Of the 207 candidates for which we could successfully measure (or place limits on) Spitzer fluxes, 23 were demoted to likely z < 4. Among the high- z candidates, we find intrinsic stellar masses between 1 &#x00d7; 10 6 M ⊙ and 4 &#x00d7; 10 9 M ⊙ , and rest-frame UV absolute magnitudes between -22.6 and -14.5 mag. While our sample is mostly comprised of galaxies, it extends to . Our sample spans ~4 orders of magnitude in stellar mass and star formation rates, and exhibits ages that range from maximally young to maximally old. We highlight 11 z ≥ 6.5 galaxies with detections in Spitzer/IRAC imaging, several of which show evidence for some combination of evolved stellar populations, large contributions of nebular emission lines, and/or dust. Among these is PLCKG287+32-2013, one of the brightest z ~ 7 candidates known (AB mag 24.9 at 1.6 μ m) with a Spitzer 3.6 μ m flux excess suggesting strong [O iii ] + H- β emission (~1000 Å rest-frame equivalent width). We discuss the possible uses and limits of our sample and present a public catalog of Hubble + Spitzer photometry along with physical property estimates for all objects in the sample. Because of their apparent brightnesses, high redshifts, and variety of stellar populations, these objects are excellent targets for follow-up with the James Webb Space Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Magnificent Five Images of Supernova Refsdal: Time Delay and Magnification Measurements

In late 2014, four images of supernova (SN) "Refsdal," the first known example of a strongly lensed SN with multiple resolved images, were detected in the MACS J1149 galaxy-cluster field. Following the images' discovery, the SN was predicted to reappear within hundreds of days at a new position ~8'' away in the field. The observed reappearance in late 2015 makes it possible to carry out Refsdal's original proposal to use a multiply imaged SN to measure the Hubble constant H0, since the time delay between appearances should vary inversely with H0. Moreover, the position, brightness, and timing of the reappearance enable a novel test of the blind predictions of galaxy-cluster models, which are typically constrained only by the positions of multiply imaged galaxies. We have developed a new photometry pipeline that uses DOLPHOT to measure the fluxes of the five images of SN Refsdal from difference images. We apply four separate techniques to perform a blind measurement of the relative time delays and magnification ratios between the last image SX and the earlier images S1–S4. We measure the relative time delay of SX–S1 to be 376.0$^{+5.6}_{–5.5}$ days and the relative magnification to be 0.30$^{+0.5}_{–0.3}$. This corresponds to a 1.5% precision on the time delay and 17% precision for the magnification ratios and includes uncertainties due to millilensing and microlensing. In an accompanying paper, we place initial and blind constraints on the value of the Hubble constant.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Searching for the Highest- z Dual Active Galactic Nuclei in the Deepest Chandra Surveys

We present an analysis searching for dual active galactic nuclei (AGN) among 62 high-redshift (2.5 < z < 3.5) X-ray sources selected from the X-UDS, AEGIS-XD, CDF-S, and COSMOS-Legacy Chandra surveys. We aim to quantify the frequency of dual AGN in the high-redshift Universe, which holds implications for black hole merger timescales and low-frequency gravitational wave detection rates. We analyze each X-ray source using BAYMAX, an analysis tool that calculates the Bayes factor for whether a given archival Chandra AGN is more likely a single or dual point source. We find no strong evidence for dual AGN in any individual source in our sample. We increase our sensitivity to search for dual AGN across the sample by comparing our measured distribution of Bayes factors to that expected from a sample composed entirely of single point sources and find no evidence for dual AGN in the sample distribution. Although our analysis utilizes one of the largest Chandra catalogs of high-z X-ray point sources available to study, the findings remain limited by the modest number of sources observed at the highest spatial resolution with Chandra and the typical count rates of the detected sources. Our nondetection allows us to place an upper limit on the X-ray dual AGN fraction at 2.5 < z < 3.5 of 4.8% at the 95% confidence level. Expanding substantially on these results at X-ray wavelengths will require future surveys spanning larger sky areas and extending to fainter fluxes than has been possible with Chandra. We illustrate the potential of the AXIS mission concept in this regard.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Connecting Current and Future Dual Active Galactic Nucleus Searches to LISA and Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detections

Abstract Dual active galactic nuclei (DAGN) mark the observable stage of massive black hole (MBH) pairing during galaxy mergers and are the progenitors of the MBH binaries that generate low-frequency gravitational waves. Using the large-volume ASTRID cosmological simulation, we construct mock DAGN catalogs tailored to the selection functions of current (COSMOS-Web and DESI) and forthcoming (Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) and Lynx X-ray Observatory (Lynx)) surveys, enabling direct comparisons between simulations and observations. With realistic observational selections, ASTRID reproduces the observed dual fractions, projected separations, and host-galaxy properties across redshifts. We predict a substantial population of small-separation (<5 kpc) duals that remain inaccessible to current surveys, demonstrating that the apparent paucity of subkiloparsec systems in COSMOS-Web is primarily a consequence of observational selection rather than an intrinsic absence. Following each simulated dual to coalescence, we show that DAGN are effective tracers of MBH mergers: ∼30%–70% merge within ≲1 Gyr, and 20%–60% of these mergers produce gravitational-wave signals detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Duals observable with Roman and Lynx are the progenitors of ∼10%–50% of low-redshift LISA sources and contribute ∼30% of the PTA-band stochastic gravitational-wave background. We further identify massive green-valley galaxies hosting moderate-luminosity active galactic nuclei (AGN), together with massive star-forming galaxies containing bright quasars at z > 1, as the environments most likely to host imminent MBH binaries. These results establish a unified cosmological framework connecting DAGN demographics, MBH binary evolution, and gravitational-wave sources, while identifying high-priority targets for coordinated electromagnetic and multimessenger observations in the coming decade.

Chen, Nianyi [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik;↗