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DOE OSTI2021

The Value of Distributed Wind: A Valuation Framework

While there has been an increase in distributed energy resource (DER) adoption, particularly for solar photovoltaic (PV) DERs, distributed wind deployment is still relatively low. However, distributed wind has significant growth potential for behind-the-meter applications and can provide improved resource diversity and resilience in high-DER grid systems. In order to make optimized decisions about distributed wind deployment, it is important to identify and characterize the value streams of distributed wind in a way that will help policy makers, microgrid developers, utilities, project developers, and others understand the potential value of distributed wind. In our paper, we develop a framework to provide a consistent and comprehensive approach to finding the net benefits of distributed wind to various stakeholders in different scenarios. We do this by considering the main use cases for distributed wind, and then developing a framework which is flexible for these various use cases and the relevant stakeholders while maintaining the same overall structure for analysis. Ongoing work includes applying this framework to valuing two distributed wind power systems, one in a remote village in Alaska and one in a front-of-the-meter deployment in Iowa. Our analysis aims to understand the full value that distributed wind is providing in these systems, including the resilience benefits it is contributing. As a better understanding of distributed wind valuation is gained, it will be easier for stakeholders to make informed decisions in order to have resilient renewable energy systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2008

Potential of Future Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Ocean Surface Wind Observations for Determining Tropical Storm Vortex Intensity and Structure

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative technology development, which offers the potential of new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation from either UAS or satellite platforms. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a proven aircraft remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates, including those of major hurricane intensity. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer technology. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. HIRAD incorporates a unique, technologically advanced array antenna and several other technologies successfully demonstrated by the NASA's Instrument Incubator Program. A brassboard version of the instrument is complete and has been successfully tested in an anechoic chamber, and development of the aircraft instrument is well underway. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce wide-swath imagery of ocean vector winds and rain during hurricane conditions when existing microwave sensors (radiometers or scatterometers) are hindered. Preliminary studies show that HIRAD will have a significant positive impact on analyses as either a new aircraft or satellite sensor.

Atlas, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind [Slides]

This analysis used high-resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model (PCM) of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios vary both offshore wind capacities and the Western Interconnection generation and transmission infrastructure. From the scenario modeling and analysis, we identified the following key findings. In addition, we simulated a subset of the scenarios for a range of historical weather years (2007-2013), to understand the robustness of our findings to different weather conditions. Trans-coastal transmission constraints and congestion are the key drivers to the curtailment of Oregon offshore wind. Once power can be delivered into the Willamette Valley, there are few system constraints that lead to a significant curtailment of offshore wind off the coast of Oregon. Approximately 2.6 GW of installed offshore wind capacity can be integrated into Oregon's power system without major upgrades to trans-coastal transmission while avoiding significant curtailment. The system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$65$ /MWh and $\$85$ /MWh across the various scenarios considered. Offshore wind heavily influences the flow of the cross Cascade transmission. Across all scenarios, we found a robust relationship of approximately 500-550 MW decrease in the hourly flow of the cross Cascade transmission for every 1,000 MW of hourly offshore wind generation. However, we also found there was not a strong relationship between the highest cross-Cascade transmission flow hours and high offshore wind generation, limiting the extent to which offshore wind can be considered a non-wires alternative to cross cascade transmission. Depending on the meteorological year, 880-1,580 MW and 1,650-3,100 MW can be counted on to serve coastal loads with 2.6 GW and 5 GW of offshore wind capacity, respectively. Offshore wind allows for more optimal daily and hourly scheduling of hydropower, while still complying with various technical and regulatory constraints on the water resource. Oregon offshore wind has the potential to contribute to the evening net load peak in California (i.e., mitigate duck curve challenges), however transmission congestion between California and Oregon limits this contribution. Co-located storage at the point of interconnection for offshore wind reduces curtailment when trans-coastal transmission is not upgraded, providing a non-wires alternative to increase offshore wind capacity beyond 2.6 GW.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Day-Ahead Forecasting Using an Analog Ensemble Approach for Wind Farm Grid Services

Wind resource assessment and wind power forecasting are used in research and industry to anticipate future power output at scales ranging from individual wind turbines to entire wind farms. Probabilistic day-ahead wind forecasting is useful for anticipating how a wind farm could potentially participate in the day-ahead market by providing upper and lower bounds for expected power generation, thus informing grid operators of its uncertainty. Understanding this uncertainty is part of a larger project focused on building a platform that combines efforts in weather forecasting, aerodynamic and economic modeling to create maximum value of a wind plant to better provide services to the grid. This effort is also known as the Atmosphere to Electrons to Grid (A2E2G) project. One method for producing a probabilistic forecast is through the analog ensemble approach (Delle Monache et al., 2011). This method leverages historical forecasts and their corresponding observations as a training data set from which future forecasts can be made. For some future forecast, the most similar historical forecasts (analogs) are identified on a regular time basis such as once per a 3-hour window. The most similar analogs, based on a metric such as root mean square error (RMSE), are recorded and their corresponding verifying observations are used as an ensemble member for this future forecast. Prior work in this area demonstrates improvements over raw Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts and shows skill similar to techniques such as logistic regression and machine learning (Delle Monache et al., 2013; Alessandrini et al., 2015). Here, we take the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR) day-ahead forecast (0-36 hours) to create a probabilistic day-ahead forecast using an analog ensemble approach. The HRRR has an hourly temporal resolution, with a spatial resolution of 3 km. The 12 UTC HRRR model run is downloaded every day for one year from August 2019 - July 2020, with the first 11 months serving as a bank of analogs from which the forecasting algorithm can create a probabilistic forecast. Once downloaded, the original HRRR forecast is temporally interpolated to 5-minutes, aligning with both the temporal resolution of the observations as well as the timescale relevant for day-ahead power forecasts. The forecast is validated at the M2 tower at the Flatirons Campus of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at a typical wind turbine height of 80 m. Variables such as wind speed, wind direction, and turbulence intensity are incorporated into the probabilistic forecast model and weighted according to their relative importance to the forecast. Based on metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error, the analog ensemble forecast outperforms the raw HRRR forecast during the testing period of July 2020. Figure 1 illustrates an example day-ahead forecast compared against the verifying observations. The general variability and ramps are captured throughout the day, with potential to further improve the analog ensemble model through machine learning techniques.

numerical weather prediction↗

NASA NTRS1973

Percy Thomas wind generator designs

The technical and economic feasibilities of constructing a windpowered generator with a capacity of 2,000 to 4,000 kilowatt are considered. Possible benefits of an integrated wind generating electric energy source in an electric utility network are elaborated. Applications of a windpowered waterpump, including its use as a pumping source for hydroelectric pump storage operations, are also mentioned. It is concluded that the greatest potential of the wind generator is to generate heat directly and not conversion to electricity and then to heat.

Lines, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1989

An expert system for wind shear avoidance

A study of intelligent guidance and control concepts for protecting against the adverse effects of wind shear during aircraft takeoffs and landings, with current emphasis on developing an expert system for wind shear avoidance, is reported. Principal objectives are to develop methods for assessing the likelihood of wind shear encounter (based on real-time information in the cockpit), for deciding what flight path to pursue (e.g., takeoff abort, landing go-around, or normal climbout or glide slope), and for using the aircraft's full potential for combating wind shear. This study requires the definition of both deterministic and statistical techniques for fusing internal and external information, for making go/no-go decisions, and for generating commands to the aircraft's autopilot and flight directors for both automatic and manually controlled flight. The development is described of the windshear safety advisor, an expert system for pilot aiding that is based on the FAA Windshear Training Aid, a two-volume manual that presents an overview, pilot guide, training program, and substantiating data providing guidelines for this initial development. The windshear safety advisor expert system contains over 200 rules and is coded in the LISP programming language.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An expert system for wind shear avoidance

A study of intelligent guidance and control concepts for protecting against the adverse effects of wind shear during aircraft takeoffs and landings is being conducted, with current emphasis on developing an expert system for wind shear avoidance. Principal objectives are to develop methods for assessing the likelihood of wind shear encounter (based on real-time information in the cockpit), for deciding what flight path to pursue (e.g., takeoff abort, landing go-around, or normal climbout or glide slope), and for using the aircraft's full potential for combating wind shear. This study requires the definition of both deterministic and statistical techniques for fusing internal and external information , for making go/no-go decisions, and for generating commands to the manually controlled flight. The program has begun with the development of the WindShear Safety Advisor, an expert system for pilot aiding that is based on the FAA Windshear Training Aid; a two-volume manual that presents an overview , pilot guide, training program, and substantiating data provides guidelines for this initial development. The WindShear Safety Advisor expert system currently contains over 200 rules and is coded in the LISP programming language.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An expert system for wind shear avoidance

The principal objectives are to develop methods for assessing the likelihood of wind shear encounter (based on real-time information in the cockpit), for deciding what flight path to pursue (e.g., takeoff abort, landing go-around, or normal climbout or glide slope), and for using the aircraft's full potential for combating wind shear. This study requires the definition of both deterministic and statistical techniques for fusing internal and external information, for making go/no-go decisions, and for generating commands to the aircraft's autopilot and flight directors for both automatic and manually controlled flight. The expert system for pilot aiding is based on the results of the FAA Windshear Training Aids Program, a two-volume manual that presents an overview, pilot guide, training program, and substantiating data that provides guidelines for this initial development. The Windshear Safety Advisor expert system currently contains over 140 rules and is coded in the LISP programming language for implementation on a Symbolics 3670 LISP Machine.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

DOE OSTI2022

2021 Component Innovation Project Awardee: Bergey Windpower

In recent years, the cost of small wind turbines for homes, farms, and small businesses has decreased dramatically thanks to advances in American technology made possible by research and development support from the U.S. Department of Energy. But further reductions are needed to realize the gigawatt-scale potential of distributed wind energy to help electrify rural America, reduce carbon emissions, and create jobs. Currently, for residential- and farm-scale wind turbines with direct-drive, permanent-magnet alternators, the alternator is the highest-cost component of the wind turbine (excluding the tower). The Bergey Windpower Excel 15 wind turbine incorporates advanced technology in its rotor and controls and will soon incorporate advanced power electronics - but its alternator is based on technology that is more than a decade old. To help reduce capital expenditures of the Excel 15 wind turbine, Bergey Windpower is developing an advanced, lower- cost, permanent-magnet alternator.

CIP↗

NASA NTRS1978

Wind-turbine-generator rotor-blade concepts with low-cost potential

Four processes for producing blades are examined. Two use filament winding techniques and two involve filling a mold or form to produce all or part of a blade. The processes are described and a comparison is made of costs, material properties, designs and free vibration characteristics. Conclusions are made regarding the feasibility of each process to produce low-cost, structurally adequate blades.

Sullivan, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Evaluation of a technique to quantify microburst windshear hazard potential to aircraft

A wind shear hazard index, known as the F-factor, is investigated for application with look-ahead sensors. Based on data from microburst simulations with the NASA windshear model, the downdraft results in a significant contribution to the wind shear hazard, especially at altitudes above 150 meters. Since most look-ahead wind shear sensors can only detect horizontal shear and cannot measure vertical velocity, a relationship is developed for approximating the total F-factor using information based solely on the horizontal wind shear and altitude. This relationship is then tested using data from several microburst cases.

Byrd, G. P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

U.S. Department of Energy Collegiate Wind Competition 2024: Rules - Phase 2 and 3

Collegiate Wind Competition↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear Response of Atmospheric Blocking to Early Winter Barents–Kara Seas Warming: An Idealized Model Study

Wintertime Ural blocking (UB) has been shown to play an important role in cold extremes over Eurasia, and thus it is useful to investigate the impact of warming over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on the behavior of Ural blocking. In our study the response of UB to stepwise tropospheric warming over the BKS is examined using a dry dynamic core model. Nonlinear responses are found in the frequency and local persistence of UB. The frequency and local persistence of the UB increase with the strength of BKS warming in a less strong range and decrease with the further increase of BKS warming, which is linked to the UB propagation influenced by upstream background atmospheric circulation. For a weak BKS warming, the UB becomes more persistent due to its less westward movement associated with intensified upstream zonal wind and meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes, which corresponds to a negative height response over the North Atlantic high latitudes. When BKS warming is strong, a positive height response appears in the early winter stratosphere, and its subsequent downward propagation leads to a negative NAO response or increased Greenland blocking events, which reduces zonal wind and PVy in the high latitudes from North Atlantic to Europe, thus enhancing the westward propagation of UB and reducing its local persistence. The transition to the negative NAO phase and the retrogression of UB are not found when numerically suppressing the downward influence of weakened stratospheric polar vortex, suggesting a crucial role of the stratospheric pathway in nonlinear responses of UB to the early winter BKS warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS AFM-1 NOAA/ATDD Long-EZ Aircraft Flux data Over the SSA

This data set contains measurements from the Airborne Flux and Meteorology (AFM)-1 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division (NOAA/ATDD) Long-EZ Aircraft collected during the 1994 Intensive Field Campaigns (IFCs) at the southern study area (SSA). These measurements were made from various instruments mounted on the aircraft. The data that were collected include aircraft altitude, wind direction, wind speed, air temperature, potential temperature, water mixing ratio, U and V components of wind velocity, static pressure, surface radiative temperature, downwelling and upwelling total radiation, downwelling and upwelling longwave radiation, net radiation, downwelling and upwelling photosynthectically active radiation (PAR), greenness index, CO2 concentration, O3 concentration, and CH4 concentration. There are also various columns that indicate the standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, and trend of some of these data. The data are stored in tabular ASCII files. The NOAA/ATDD Long-EZ aircraft flux data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Crawford, Timothy L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Marine Stratocumulus Clouds using Lagrangian Superdroplet Method in ERF

This study investigates the simulation of marine stratocumulus (stratoCu) clouds – common in many offshore and coastal wind energy regions - using Lagrangian Superdroplet Method (SDM) implemented in Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) model. Developed by the Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO), ERF is a high-resolution atmospheric modeling tool that relies on traditional bulk microphysics schemes. Under an LLNL-led Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project, SDM was integrated into ERF to improve cloud process fidelity by explicitly tracking individual “superdroplets”. This enables a realistic representation of the droplet size spectrum, cloud-atmosphere interactions, and potential feedbacks from wind plants on atmospheric flow and cloud structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Department of Energy Collegiate Wind Competition 2025 Rules - Phase 1

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office's (WETO) Collegiate Wind Competition (CWC, also referred to as the "Competition" in this rules document) invites interdisciplinary teams of undergraduate students from a variety of academic programs to solve complex wind energy challenges. Through the competition, WETO intends to offer students direct industry experience, valuable exposure to wind energy career pathways, and greater knowledge of wind energy's potential to contribute to a clean energy future. The competition will select up to 35 teams to start, making them eligible to compete for a cash prize pool of up to $280,000 . Each year, the competition identifies a new challenge and set of activities that address real-world research questions, thus demonstrating skills that students will need to work in the wind or wider renewable energy industries. The Collegiate Wind Competition 2025 challenge requires participants to compete simultaneously in four contests: 1) Turbine Prototype Contest: Design, build, and present a unique, wind-driven power system based on market research; 2) Turbine Testing Contest: Test the wind turbine in a competition wind tunnel at the final event; 3) Project Development Contest: Research wind resource data, transmission infrastructure, and environmental factors to create a site plan and financial analysis for a hypothetical wind farm; and Connection Creation Contest: Partner with wind industry professionals, raise awareness of wind energy in your local community, and work with local media to promote your team's accomplishments. The competition does not prescribe a power system market or wind regime. It is expected that each team will participate in all four contests.

collegiate wind competition↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Department of Energy Collegiate Wind Competition 2025: Rules - Phases 2 and 3

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office's (WETO) Collegiate Wind Competition (CWC, also referred to as the "competition" in this rules document) invites interdisciplinary teams of undergraduate students from a variety of academic programs to solve complex wind energy challenges. Through the competition, WETO intends to offer students direct industry experience, valuable exposure to wind energy career pathways, and greater knowledge of wind energy's potential to contribute to a clean energy future. The competition will select up to 35 teams to start, making them eligible to compete for a cash prize pool of up to $280,000. Each year, the competition identifies a new challenge and set of activities that address real-world research questions, thus demonstrating skills that students will need to work in the wind or wider renewable energy industries. The Collegiate Wind Competition 2025 challenge requires participants to compete simultaneously in four contests: 1) Turbine Design Contest: Design, build, and present a unique, wind-driven power system. 2) Turbine Testing Contest: Test the wind turbine in a competition wind tunnel at the final event. 3) Project Development Contest: Research wind resource data, transmission infrastructure, and environmental factors to create a site plan and financial analysis for a hypothetical wind farm. 4) Connection Creation Contest: Partner with wind industry professionals, raise awareness of wind energy in your local community, and work with local media to promote your team's accomplishments. The competition does not prescribe a power system market or wind regime. It is expected that each team will participate in all four contests.

Collegiate Wind Competition↗

DOE OSTI2022

Opportunities for Hybrid Wind and Solar PV Plants in India

The share of variable renewable energy (VRE) on India's grid has surpassed 100 GW, and the government has ambitious plans reach 450 GW by 2030. One strategy to increase wind and solar PV deployment is through the co-location of wind and solar PV plants to form a single hybrid power plant. Hybrid plants have the potential to reduce transmission infrastructure costs and variability in the output power profile compared to a standalone plant with a single technology, and this resource analysis aims to take a first step towards quantifying the potential savings from hybridizing wind and solar PV plants in India and the size of this opportunity. We utilize a brute-force optimization to minimize the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for standalone wind, standalone solar PV, and hybrid wind/solar PV plants across all of India. By comparing these LCOEs, we determine that locations where hybrid plants exhibit potential cost savings and grid benefits exhibit both; a high interconnection cost and; a wind capacity factor between roughly 34% and 38%. However, because our work does not capture the value of the electricity generated by looking at energy prices, nor does it quantify the potential of hybrids to provide other value streams such as firm capacity and reserves. Further, because the work does not compare solar PV and wind hybrids to alternative generation technologies or storage systems, it cannot be considered a holistic cost-benefit analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗