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362 records · Page 14

Comparative Assessment of Battery Carbon Footprint Calculation Frameworks to Support U.S. Battery Manufacturing

A “battery passport” is a digital record that provides comprehensive information about an individual battery across its life cycle. This concept has been introduced by Battery Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 [1], which applies to batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), industrial batteries with a capacities greater than 2 kWh, and batteries for light means of transport (LMT) greater than 2kWh sold in the European Union (EU) market – impacting manufacturers and exporters across multiple jurisdictions globally. Among its reporting mandates, a key feature of battery passports is the requirement for a carbon footprint (CF) calculation methodology supported by enhanced data granularity to enable traceable and verifiable CF results. While no other jurisdictions have yet adopted formal battery passport requirements like the EU’s, some are developing CF calculation methods to comply with the EU Battery Regulation or are creating CF-related regulations that could evolve in a similar direction, reflecting the growing importance of battery CF guidelines for manufacturers seeking to remain competitive in global markets.

Zhang, Jingyi [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL),

Toward Fully Soft and Multifunctional Shape Sensing via Optical Waveguide Arrays

For soft bodies, surface deformation and pressure provide proprioceptive and exteroceptive information, including body configuration, body compliance, and external forces. We develop a sheet sensor with a fully soft sensing surface that provides surface shape reconstruction using optical waveguide arrays. The waveguides are fabricated to achieve a tunable linear response to bi‐directional bending curvature, and the waveguide arrays are configured to differentiate between ambiguous shapes. We characterize the waveguide performance, relating curvature sensitivity to the core's surface roughness. Synergy of waveguide responses reduces the number of sensing elements required and achieves damage resilience. Using waveguide sensitivity to pressure, we also demonstrate feasibility for exteroception. We demonstrate the multifunctional sensing capability by wrapping the sheet around an upper arm, showcasing joint motion and external force sensing. Integrated into or applied onto surfaces of robotic or living systems, this design can be implemented in applications such as virtual reality, teleoperation, physical therapy, and soft robotics.

Yu, Qifan [Department of Mechanical Engineering Ma

MHONGOOSE: A MeerKAT nearby galaxy H I survey

The MHONGOOSE (MeerKAT H IObservations of Nearby Galactic Objects: Observing Southern Emitters) survey maps the distribution and kinematics of the neutral atomic hydrogen (H I) gas in and around 30 nearby star-forming spiral and dwarf galaxies to extremely low H Icolumn densities. The H Icolumn density sensitivity (3σover 16 km s −1 ) ranges from ∼5 × 10 17 cm −2 at 90″ resolution to ∼4 × 10 19 cm −2 at the highest resolution of 7″. The H Imass sensitivity (3σover 50 km s −1 ) is ∼5.5 × 10 5 M ⊙ at a distance of 10 Mpc (the median distance of the sample galaxies). The velocity resolution of the data is 1.4 km s −1 . One of the main science goals of the survey is the detection of cold accreting gas in the outskirts of the sample galaxies. The sample was selected to cover a range in H Imasses from 10 7 M ⊙ to almost 10 11 M ⊙ in order to optimally sample possible accretion scenarios and environments. The distance to the sample galaxies ranges from 3 to 23 Mpc. In this paper, we present the sample selection, survey design, and observation and reduction procedures. We compared the integrated H Ifluxes based on the MeerKAT data with those derived from single-dish measurement and find good agreement, indicating that our MeerKAT observations are recovering all flux. We present H Imoment maps of the entire sample based on the first ten percent of the survey data, and find that a comparison of the zeroth- and second-moment values shows a clear separation in the physical properties of the H Ibetween areas with star formation and areas without related to the formation of a cold neutral medium. Finally, we give an overview of the H I-detected companion and satellite galaxies in the 30 fields, five of which have not previously been cataloged. We find a clear relation between the number of companion galaxies and the mass of the main target galaxy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics

Preliminary Plan to Inform Testing of a Heat Exchanger Test Article

This report presents a preliminary plan to guide the qualification testing of advanced heat exchanger (HX) components for nuclear-to-industrial heat transfer applications. The objective is to establish a defensible, physics-based methodology that integrates computational modeling, targeted experimentation, and in-service inspection considerations to demonstrate component performance and reliability under representative reactor conditions. The analysis identifies Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) systems as reference configurations in terms of temperature, pressure, and chemical environment. Within these operating envelopes, dominant degradation mechanisms— including creep–fatigue interaction, flow-induced vibration, corrosion, and diffusion-bond deterioration—were evaluated to define test requirements. A comprehensive computationalexperimental framework is proposed to support life prediction and qualification activities. The framework couples high-fidelity structural-mechanics, thermal-hydraulic, and fluid-structure interaction models with accelerated degradation testing to produce a traceable linkage between microstructural evolution, mechanical performance, and remaining useful life (RUL). The approach adheres to established Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) standards (ASME V&V 10/20; NUREG-2152) and incorporates a digital-twin architecture for continuous model refinement through data assimilation. The plan further outlines testing methodologies, including pre-test analyses, test-loop design parameters, and sensor placement strategies that maximize information yield while maintaining mechanistic fidelity. Complementary sections describe in-service inspection (ISI), on-line monitoring (OLM), and structural-health-monitoring (SHM) techniques applicable to compact HX geometries typical of advanced reactors. Collectively, these activities establish the technical foundation for demonstrating 40-60-year equivalent service life of advanced heat exchangers in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor and Integrated Energy Systems programs. The forthcoming phase will execute the defined pre-test analyses, initiate hardware fabrication, and implement the integrated testing campaign to validate the proposed qualification methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

NASA Small Spacecraft and Distributed Systems: Recent and Upcoming Technology Demonstrations and Development Efforts

NASA’s Small Spacecraft & Distributed Systems (SSDS) program strengthens U.S. ability to conduct unique missions by rapidly developing and demonstrating capabilities for SmallSat exploration, science, and commercial space. In collaboration with NASA Centers, other government agencies, commercial industry, and academia, SSDS advances next generation SmallSat technologies like power, processing, propulsion, communications, autonomous navigation, architectures (swarms), and applications (AI/ML/Edge Computing)—to extend missions beyond LEO into cislunar and planetary space. Various investment mechanisms exist for SSDS to select and fund projects that will ultimately advance NASA’s Moon to Mars Architecture. Presented here are the latest achievements and findings from recently completed SSDS projects, along with updates from ongoing efforts and planned future work. Successful missions like Starling and CAPSTONE continue to demonstrate their capability after several years on-orbit. Advancements in next generation swarm configurations are being implemented by Starling for space traffic monitoring and management applications. Findings from recent SSDS flight projects are discussed: DiskSat, a unique SmallSat platform alternative to canisterized nanosatellites, launched December 2025 and is gathering data; the PTD series of missions concluded in December 2025. Current SSDS efforts are focused on addressing NASA Shortfalls relating to rendezvous and proximity operations, neuromorphic computing, and space situational awareness.

Roger Hunter

Trajectory Engineering with Modular Patched Conics for Entry Systems and TPS (TEMPEST)

Brief Presenter Biography (35 word limit): Bohdan Wesely is an Aerospace Engineer in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at Ames. He has worked on a variety of projects for NASA including integrated TPS (thermal protection system) flight hardware deliveries and testing services for commercial partners. Introduction: TEMPEST is a new trajectory analysis framework that is designed to fill the gap between dedicated flight mechanics tools and aerothermal and TPS sizing tools. The project started as an SJSU master’s thesis and has since evolved into a general conceptual design tool capable of studying a wide variety of entry problems. Development is ongoing in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA ARC. Why TEMPEST: Space missions involving entry into a planetary atmosphere involve a series of unique requirements across multiple disciplines. Whether it is traditional entry descent and landing (EDL), or aerocapture, the vehicle must navigate to its target landing location or orbit state, and the TPS must protect the payload during entry. The design process typically involves iterative handoffs between various flight mechanics, flow solver, and material response level tools. During the early conceptual phase, a wide variety of feasible trajectories are simulated in a Monte Carlo scenario which broadly satisfy the mission or landing requirements. Next, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC), and other flow solver analyses are performed at various key trajectory points to generate an aero-database, heating and TPS design requirements also emerge at this stage. At this point, with updated aerodynamics from the various flow solvers, trajectories can be re-run, this in turn can change the required freestream conditions for the CFD tools, and as a project progresses, these analyses converge, and uncertainty is reduced. However, there is always a “hand-off” occurring between two inherently coupled phenomena. Analysis Description: One of the goals with TEMPEST is to use a variety of first principles estimation methods coupled with an atmosphere model to predict vehicle aerothermodynamics across the entire flight regime while propagating a 3 or 6 degree of freedom (DoF) trajectory. Aerodynamics methods include modified Newtonian, Maxwell and Cercignani- Lampis-Lord (CLL) for continuum, transitional, and free molecular flow regimes. Aerothermodynamics include boundary layer and reference enthalpy methods, and Mutation++ for non-equilibrium chemistry modeling. TEMPEST is also capable of stitching multiple trajectory segments together to study mission scenarios like multi-pass aerocapture and aero-gravity assists. Most of the program is implemented in MATLAB using modern system objects, it relies on several C++ shared libraries for supporting tools like Gmsh, the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM), and Mutation++. The various first principles aerothermal estimation methods are discretized across either a structured axisymmetric panel mesh or an unstructured tri-mesh generated from an open-source tool such as Gmsh, this allows solutions on the same mesh to be compared across tools such as CB-Aero. CFD Coupling. A physics-aware, gaussian process CFD anchoring scheme is proposed to adjust the various first principles methods as a CFD database is populated. One goal for this anchoring module is to inform the project where CFD should be run. Full knowledge of the entire trajectory, atmosphere, and aerothermodynamics allows for easier identification of high sensitivity areas and uncertainty quantification. While the first principles effects are well known and proven accurate in existing tools such as CB- Aero and Cart3D, a physics aware CFD anchoring scheme increases tool credibility across a project lifecycle. Material Response Modeling. Correct TPS sizing is critical for optimizing mass for science payloads and ensuring mission success. The process typically involves a thermal analysis along the trajectory with surface heating environments as a boundary condition. Several design constraints are maximum bondline temperature and maximum recession with various margining techniques. The material response tool FIAT, developed out of NASA Ames, is currently being integrated into the TEMPEST environment. TPS recession, shape change, mass loss, and mass property alteration are all factors that can perturb an entry trajectory. For missions like Mars 2020, recession was minimal and was safely handled separately as a post process. For missions such as Jupiter Galileo with a high TPS mass fraction or asteroid entries, recession plays a major role. The proposed fully coupled scheme is to use an epoch-based approach where the trajectory integration is halted after a recession threshold, the energy balance and FIAT are solved at each panel, the mesh, aerodynamics, and mass properties are updated, and the trajectory continues. Several computational tradeoffs have been made during the development of TEMPEST to limit the cost of a single trajectory and preserve its utility as a conceptual, rapid iteration tool. Conclusion: Development of TEMPEST is ongoing and the project is still in its infancy. This talk aims to showcase its unique capabilities to support future NASA entry systems missions.

Bohdan O Wesely

Maximizing Free Energy Gain

Maximizing the amount of work harvested from an environment is important for a wide variety of biological and technological processes, from energy-harvesting processes such as photosynthesis to energy storage systems such as fuels and batteries. Here, we consider the maximization of free energy—and by extension, the maximum extractable work—that can be gained by a classical or quantum system that undergoes driving by its environment. We consider how the free energy gain depends on the initial state of the system while also accounting for the cost of preparing the system. We provide simple necessary and sufficient conditions for increasing the gain of free energy by varying the initial state. We also derive simple formulae that relate the free energy gained using the optimal initial state rather than another suboptimal initial state. Finally, we demonstrate that the problem of finding the optimal initial state may have two distinct regimes, one easy and one difficult, depending on the temperatures used for preparation and work extraction. We illustrate our results on a simple model of an information engine.

Physics

Dopant adsorption as a function of bulk concentration at a near 42º (100) twist grain boundary in SrTiO3

The enrichment of grain boundaries with dopant atoms is of critical importance for the macroscopic physical properties of materials. In thermodynamic equilibrium the Gibbs adsorption isotherm relates grain boundary excess of dopant atoms, their chemical potential in the adjacent bulk, and the respective interface energy. This study has used bicrystals with a near 42º (100) twist grain boundary in SrTiO3 to demonstrate that different kinetic pathways of Fe dopant atom additions converge towards comparable grain boundary configurations. Despite differences in bulk chemical potentials remarkably similar grain boundary excess quantities were observed. The experimental results indicate the general experimental feasibility to establish quantitative relationships between variations of grain boundary energy, interfacial excess, and overall dopant concentration. Improved experimental counting statistics are needed to distinguish solute interface excess as a function of bulk chemical potential.

Hahn, William [University of California, Davis]

Satellite Optical Remote Sensing of Clouds and Aerosols: From Particle Single-Scattering and Gaseous Absorption Through Radiative Transfer to Retrieval Products

Clouds and aerosols are fundamental regulators of Earth’s radiation budget and climate system, influencing both solar and terrestrial radiation through scattering, absorption, and emission processes. Accurate characterization of their physical and radiative properties from space requires a rigorous understanding of particle single-scattering, gaseous absorption, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, as well as reliable inversion methods. This review synthesizes the physical foundations and algorithmic implementations of satellite-based passive optical remote sensing of clouds and aerosols, spanning the ultraviolet to thermal infrared spectral range. Beginning with electromagnetic scattering theory and state-of-the-art methods for computing single-scattering by nonspherical particles and computationally efficient methods for accounting for atmospheric absorption, we discuss the radiative transfer framework underpinning cloud and aerosol retrievals. The connection between single-scattering and multiple-scattering is rigorously formulated. We then summarize operational and research-grade retrieval techniques, including cloud masking and thermodynamic phase determination, CO₂ slicing for cloud-top pressure, the Nakajima-King shortwave bi-spectral, and infrared split-window approaches for cloud optical thickness and effective particle size, inversion algorithms for determining aerosol properties from multi-spectral and/or multi-angle radiometric and polarimetric measurements, and active-passive sensing synergy. Examples of the global cloud and aerosol climatologies are illustrated using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). Furthermore, the unique strengths of active remote sensing techniques based on spaceborne lidar observations are briefly elaborated in the context of studying ice clouds composed of randomly and horizontally oriented ice crystals, which is a significant challenge for conventional passive remote sensing techniques. By connecting physical theory to practical retrievals, this review highlights both the maturity of current methodologies and the remaining challenges in reducing uncertainties in particle morphology, vertical structure, absorption, and aerosol-cloud interactions. Furthermore, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on atmospheric remote sensing is briefly addressed.

Aerosols

SILICON CARBIDE THERMOMETRY USING RAMAN SPECTROSCOPY ON IRRADIATED TRISO PARTICLES

Silicon carbide (SiC) passive thermometry has emerged as a promising post-irradiation examination (PIE) technique for estimating irradiation temperature near the end of irradiation. While dilatometry techniques have been traditionally used to analyze prismatic samples after irradiation, Raman spectroscopy has recently been shown to provide comparable results by analyzing Raman-active phonon modes. In this work, Raman spectroscopy has been applied to the SiC layer of cross-sectioned irradiation tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles from the AGR-5/6/7 experiment to evaluate the feasibility of particle-scale passive thermometry. Two-dimensional Raman mapping was used to measure the position of the SiC longitudinal optical (LO) phonon, which was then converted to an apparent irradiation temperature using a previously established empirical correlation. Particles from AGR-5/6/7 Compacts 2-2-1 and 5-1-3 were selected as their calculated time-averaged, volume-averaged (TAVA) temperatures (828°C and 706°C, respectively) fall within the range of the sensitivity of the experimental approach. The use of SiC thermometry was anticipated to confirm or highlight potential deviations from calculated end-of-life TAVA temperature across compacts. Four particles from Compact 2-2-1 and two particles from Compact 5-1-3 were selected based on 110mAg inventory (either some measurable activity or below the minimum detection limit) which is commonly used as an indicator of in-pile temperature variation of particles within the same compact. Across every particle selected it was determined that the average LO peak position was located around 968 cm-1 to 969 cm-1. Using the previously determined empirical correlation, this corresponds to an irradiation temperature around 950°C to 966°C, which does not align with the reported TAVA temperature values. This discrepancy in apparent irradiation temperatures likely reflects a combination of uncertainties in the calculated particle temperatures and differences in irradiation history between the present specimens and those used to establish the empirical Raman calibration such as neutron flux (damage rate) and SiC microstructure (as fabricated and irradiated).

Vawdrey, Josh [ORNL]

The Role of Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Prompt α-Eigenvalue Predictions of Delayed Critical Benchmarks

Alpha (α) eigenvalues, which describe the logarithmic time derivative of the neutron population in a multiplying system, are integral to time-dependent behavior and diagnostic applications. However, uncertainties in the evaluated nuclear data can significantly impact the accuracy of transport simulations for such quantities. This work explores the use of machine learning models to predict two key outputs, α-eigenvalues and keff bias, using input features derived from α-eigenvalue sensitivities to nuclear data. The criticality safety benchmark models used in this study come from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. Three models, random forest, XGBoost, and NGBoost, are trained on both energy-resolved and energy-summed α sensitivities. For the α-eigenvalue bias prediction, NGBoost achieved the highest R 2 (0.9476) using energy-resolved features, while XGBoost performed best using summed sensitivities. In contrast, when predicting the keff bias, all the models showed moderate predictive capability (best R 2 ≈ 0.72), as the mapping from the static α-sensitivities to the static keff bias was less direct. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret the model predictions. Across both prediction tasks, the features associated with neutron capture [H-1 (n, γ)], uranium scattering reactions (such as 235 U elastic/inelastic), and actinide capture/fission reactions (such as 239 Pu and 234 U) were consistently identified as the most impactful. This highlights the key role of specific nuclear reactions and energy ranges in shaping both time-dependent and steady-state criticality behavior. These results demonstrated that α-sensitivities, despite being computed for time-dependent metrics, can provide valuable insights for predicting both α-eigenvalues and the keff bias. Moreover, machine learning models offer a promising pathway for uncovering important nuclear data dependencies and guiding future data evaluation efforts.

Nuclear data

Materials And Processes Technical Information System (MAPTIS) LDEF materials database

The Materials and Processes Technical Information System (MAPTIS) is a collection of materials data which was computerized and is available to engineers in the aerospace community involved in the design and development of spacecraft and related hardware. Consisting of various database segments, MAPTIS provides the user with information such as material properties, test data derived from tests specifically conducted for qualification of materials for use in space, verification and control, project management, material information, and various administrative requirements. A recent addition to the project management segment consists of materials data derived from the LDEF flight. This tremendous quantity of data consists of both pre-flight and post-flight data in such diverse areas as optical/thermal, mechanical and electrical properties, atomic concentration surface analysis data, as well as general data such as sample placement on the satellite, A-O flux, equivalent sun hours, etc. Each data point is referenced to the primary investigator(s) and the published paper from which the data was taken. The MAPTIS system is envisioned to become the central location for all LDEF materials data. This paper consists of multiple parts, comprising a general overview of the MAPTIS System and the types of data contained within, and the specific LDEF data element and the data contained in that segment.

John M. Davis

Frontier Job-Centric Telemetry Dataset

Comprehensive analysis of high-performance computing (HPC) systems requires linking workload execution to system behavior. This kind of analysis is vital for diagnosing performance issues, managing capacity, detecting anomalous workloads, and understanding how applications interact with system hardware. This job-centric telemetry dataset unifies scheduler job records with node-level measurements, enabling direct association between workloads and their corresponding power, thermal, and performance characteristics. It contains sanitized, scheduler related metadata for 152,400 individual jobs that ran on the Frontier supercomputer and ended on selected days throughout 2024 and 2025, a subpopulation of ~6.8% of the total number of allocated jobs with non-zero run time on the system over that same period. Each is linked with files that contain telemetry time series records of the power utilization and temperature behavior of its allocated nodes and their processors during the run time of the job. Where available, a portion of the job files also contain network performance time series. Jobs are sampled from select days that reflect normal levels of user activity and possess job size distributions with large numbers of leadership class jobs (>20% of Frontier nodes). Jobs in this dataset attempt to best represent successful user workflows.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Entanglement Structure of Non-Gaussian States and How to Measure It

Rapidly growing capabilities of quantum simulators to probe quantum many-body phenomena require new methods to characterize increasingly complex states. Here, we present a protocol that constrains quantum states using experimentally measured correlation functions. This method enables measurement of a quantum state’s entanglement structure, opening a new route to study entanglement-related phenomena. Our approach extends Gaussian state parameterizations by systematically incorporating higher-order correlations. We show the protocol’s usefulness in conjunction with current and forthcoming experimental capabilities, focusing on weakly interacting fermions as a proof of concept. Here, the lowest nontrivial expansion quantitatively predicts early time thermalization dynamics, including signaling the onset of quantum chaos indicated by the entanglement Hamiltonian.

Fermi gases

Robustness of pairwise kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect to optical-cluster-selection bias

The pairwise kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect measures both the pairwise motion between galaxy groups and clusters and the amount of gas within them, providing a tracer for cosmic growth. To interpret the cosmological information in the kSZ measurements, it is crucial to understand the optical-cluster-selection bias on the kSZ observables. Line-of-sight structures that contribute to both the optical observable (e.g., richness) and the cosmological signal can induce a correlation between these two quantities at a fixed cluster mass. The selection bias arising from this correlation is a key systematic effect for cosmological analyses. For cosmological observables such as cluster abundance and weak lensing, controlling this selection bias may help explain the tension between the DES-Y1 results and the Planck constraints. In order to test for a kSZ effect equivalent of such a bias, we adopted an alternative mock richness based on galaxy counts within cylindrical volumes along the line of sight. We applied the cylindrical count method to hydrodynamical simulations across a wide range of galaxy-selection criteria, assigning richness consistent with DES-Y1 to the mock clusters. When comparing optically selected clusters to mass-selected halos, we find no significant bias on pairwise kSZ signals, pairwise velocities, or optical depth within our uncertainty limits of approximately 16, 10, and 8%, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Subscale Hardware-In-The-Loop Results for Hybrid Electric Turbofan Controls Use Cases

NASA is investigating hybrid electric turbine engine systems for commercial transport aircraft due to the potentially significant improvements hybrid electric technology offers in performance, fuel consumption, and operational and design flexibility. Recently, the technology has been tested at full scale in partnership with industry and advanced to Technology Readiness Level 4. This presentation will focus on a recent subscale hardware-in-the-loop test of an open source turbofan engine model developed by NASA. The Advanced Geared Turbofan 30,000 lbf – electrified (AGTF30-e) engine is used as a reference model to demonstrate control system design and use cases for an example mild hybrid electric system with no large-scale energy storage. This model is run in real-time in NASA’s Hybrid Propulsion Emulation Rig (HyPER) and is used to drive an emulation of the turbomachinery system using subscale electric machines. This dynamic scaled shaft emulation interacts with a subscale (<100 kW) hybrid system consisting of electric machines, motor controllers, and a programmable electronic load. Specific use cases demonstrated include the use of Turbine Electrified Energy Management to improve operation during transients, megawatt-scale power extraction from the AGTF30-e, and power transfer between engine spools. Results related to the effectiveness of hybrid systems are qualitatively compared to results from industry testing.

Hybrid

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change

Nonintrusive Diagnostic Strategies for Arcjet Stream Characterization

In the previous lecture, the issues related to arcjet flow modeling were introduced, and the limitations of conventional instrumentation in addressing these issues were discussed. The general level of understanding of the arcjet flows was seen to preclude the use of arcjets as aerothermodynamic test facilities beyond the current role in aerothermal material testing, despite their long test duration capability. In this section, the focus will be on new developments in spectroscopic instrumentation and techniques that can be brought to bear on the fundamental problem of arcjet stream characterization. Although a wide selection of arcjet facilities were introduced in the previous section, the discussion of nonintrusive diagnostic instrumentation will be restricted to the large-scale, segmented, constricted-arc heater facilities that are most widely used in thermal protection material testing for aerospace applications. After a brief review of the important features of arcjet flows, the topic of nonintrusive, optical diagnostics is introduced with a discussion of some of the basic aspects of radiative transitions. The lecture is then organized into two sections covering emission measurements and laser-induced fluorescence measurements. Emission measurements are presented next for different regions of arcjet flows, while the fluorescence measurements are presented for the free stream region only. Summaries are given for each of the two main sections, and observations on arcjet characterization by optical diagnostics in general are given at the end.

Douglas G Fletcher