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Results for “uncertainty quantification (UQ)”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification in MELCOR Safety analysis of ARIES reactor designs

MELCOR-TMAP is a combined thermal-hydraulics and tritium tracking code developed to simulate severe accident scenarios in fission and fusion power plants. Here, we demonstrate the results of MELCOR-TMAP analyses on historical ARIES program reference designs. By coupling MELCOR-TMAP with the open source RAVEN probabilistic risk analysis framework’s Bayesian UQ capabilities, we also demonstrate key uncertainties in material properties with the highest impact on tritium inventory and plant risk.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic nonlinear analysis of unidirectional fiber composites using image-based microstructural uncertainty quantification

Here, we present a data-driven nonlinear uncertainty quantification and propagation framework to study the microstructure-induced stochastic performance of unidirectional (UD) carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites. The proposed approach integrates (1) microscopic image characterization, (2) stochastic microstructure reconstruction, and (3) efficient multiscale finite element simulations enabled by self-consistent clustering (SCA) analysis. To model the complex microstructural variability, the proposed UQ methods take the non-Gaussian uncertainty sources into account through a distribution-free sampling approach leveraging nonparametric and asymptotic statistical tools. A hierarchical conditional sampling strategy enables the simultaneous sampling of multiple sources of uncertainties. Our approach provides insights into the impact of microstructural variabilities, which are shown to have an increasing impact on the nonlinear responses of UD CFRP parts under progressive compression loading and ultimately on the failure rate over time. We discover that before CFRP parts start to fail, a characteristic time period emerges with distinctive uncertainty distributions specific to the microstructure variability and the probability of failure. Identifying the failure time period is crucial to the reliability prediction, which is an essential component of CFRP design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification in Condition Monitoring of Active Components: A Reactor Coolant Pump Use Case

This work develops data-driven models for onset of thermal barrier leakage in reactor coolant pumps. It incorporates uncertainty quantification to enhance the reliability and robustness of pre- dictions. Using synthetic data generated by the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator, realistic degradation scenarios were simulated across lifecycle stages—beginning, middle, and end of life. Key variables, including differential pressure, flow rate, vibration, and temperatures, were analyzed using machine learning framework. The fully connected neural network models demonstrated exceptional performance, achieving R2 scores exceeding 0.99 and root mean square errors as low as around 8.23 × 10-2 gallon per minute (gpm) for the three stages of the lifecy- cle. UQ analysis further validated the model’s robustness, with narrow uncertainty bounds during steady-state operations and appropriately wider bounds during transitional phases, reflecting the physical behavior of the system. This work addresses important gaps in real-time condition moni- toring and regulatory compliance by integrating advanced condition monitoring technologies with UQ into IST programs. The ability to detect thermal barrier leakage early and quantify prediction reliability supports optimizing maintenance strategies while ensuring nuclear power plants’ safe and reliable operation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Network Uncertainty Quantification for Analysis of Multi-Component Systems

To impact physical mechanical system design decisions and realize the full promise of high-fidelity computational tools, simulation results must be integrated at the earliest stages of the design process. This is particularly challenging when dealing with uncertainty and optimizing for system-level performance metrics, as full-system models (often notoriously expensive and time-consuming to develop) are generally required to propagate uncertainties to system-level quantities of interest. Methods for propagating parameter and boundary condition uncertainty in networks of interconnected components hold promise for enabling design under uncertainty in real-world applications. These methods avoid the need for time consuming mesh generation of full-system geometries when changes are made to components or subassemblies. Additionally, they explicitly tie full-system model predictions to component/subassembly validation data which is valuable for qualification. These methods work by leveraging the fact that many engineered systems are inherently modular, being comprised of a hierarchy of components and subassemblies that are individually modified or replaced to define new system designs. By doing so, these methods enable rapid model development and the incorporation of uncertainty quantification earlier in the design process. The resulting formulation of the uncertainty propagation problem is iterative. We express the system model as a network of interconnected component models, which exchange solution information at component boundaries. We present a pair of approaches for propagating uncertainty in this type of decomposed system and provide implementations in the form of an open-source software library. We demonstrate these tools on a variety of applications and demonstrate the impact of problem-specific details on the performance and accuracy of the resulting UQ analysis. This work represents the most comprehensive investigation of these network uncertainty propagation methods to date.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Quantification and Statistical Engineering for Hypersonic Entry Applications

NASA has invested significant resources in developing and validating a mathematical construct for TPS margin management: a) Tailorable for low/high reliability missions; b) Tailorable for ablative/reusable TPS; c) Uncertainty Quantification and Statistical Engineering are valuable tools not exploited enough; and d) Need to define strategies combining both Theoretical Tools and Experimental Methods. The main reason for this lecture is to give a flavor of where UQ and SE could contribute and hope that the broader community will work with us to improve in these areas.

Cozmuta, Ioana↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deployment of Multifidelity Uncertainty Quantification for Thermal Battery Assessment Part I: Algorithms and Single Cell Results

This report documents the results of an FY22 ASC V&V level 2 milestone demonstrating new algorithms for multifidelity uncertainty quantification. Part I of the report describes the algorithms, studies their performance on a simple model problem, and then deploys the methods to a thermal battery example from the open literature. Part II (restricted distribution) applies the multifidelity UQ methods to specific thermal batteries of interest to the NNSA/ASC program.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty Quantification in High Explosives Equations of State [Slides]

In order to fit models to data, we need a way to simulate the data given a model. Our projects involved simulators for the Manganin gauge experiment and for cylinder tests, which we use to calibrate models to experiments. We call the parameters we seek to optimize the degrees of freedom (DOF). We use a Bayesian approach with its associated UQ benefits.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark -- A Bayesian Inverse UQ-based Approach for Data Assimilation

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. When comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that GLLS predictions fail to replicate computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA shows near agreement, and IUQ uses computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark—A Bayesian Inverse UQ-Based Approach for Data Assimilation

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety has proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian inverse uncertainty quantification (IUQ) employing scientific machine learning surrogate models as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of generalized linear least squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. Here, when comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that the GLLS predictions failed to replicate the computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA showed near agreement, and IUQ used the computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

Bayesian calibration↗
NASA NTRS2017

Uncertainty Quantification of the FUN3D-Predicted NASA CRM Flutter Boundary

A nonintrusive point collocation method is used to propagate parametric uncertainties of the flexible Common Research Model, a generic transport configuration, through the unsteady aeroelastic CFD solver FUN3D. A range of random input variables are considered, including atmospheric flow variables, structural variables, and inertial (lumped mass) variables. UQ results are explored for a range of output metrics (with a focus on dynamic flutter stability), for both subsonic and transonic Mach numbers, for two different CFD mesh refinements. A particular focus is placed on computing failure probabilities: the probability that the wing will flutter within the flight envelope.

Stanford, Bret K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (Final Report)

Within the Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (HBPS), work at UT-Austin was aimed at improved verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) for edge plasma simulations and on performing gyrokinetics simulations of pedestal instabilities and turbulence in order to expand foundational understanding of pedestal transport. Regarding VVUQ, the accomplishments can be summarized as follows. First, it was shown that the Moment Preserving Constrained Resampling technique, when applied periodically in particle-in-cell simulations in the XGC code, can dramatically improve the accuracy of the simulation at essentially equivalent computational cost. Second, a technique for estimating model correlations, which are required to solve the model selection and sample allocation problem in multifidelity UQ techniques, without sampling the highest fidelity, most computationally expensive model, was developed and demonstrated. Third, previously developed methods for estimating statistical and discretization errors were applied to numerical methods relevant to edge plasma simulations, namely in particle-in-cell-based approaches, and shown to work. Finally, benchmark studies for comparing gyrokinetic codes were developed and performed, leading to reasonable agreement between four commonly used codes. Regarding physics studies, gyrokinetic simulations to investigate microtearing modes in the DIII-D pedestal were performed using the GENE code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

UQ4QM: Uncertainty Quantification for Quantum Materials (Chemical Dynamics Initiative Final Report)

The Uncertainty Quantification for Quantum Materials (UQ4QM) LDRD project focused on developing solutions for strategic two project areas the Chemical Dynamics Initiative (CDi) Use Case 3. This included data-driven approaches toward understanding heterogeneous data, such as multi-fidelity data or data with unknown spatial or temporal perturbations. The applications were varied but the project aims pursued solutions which were amenable to common UQ approaches in order to maximize impact.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fracture Analysis of Cohesive Zone Models for Modeling Residual Stress Induced Delamination in Composite Structures

A fracture study of coupon-scale composite cylinders with embedded defects was conducted with an objective to assess and validate a modeling approach using two available cohesive material models. The study included experimental and simulation evaluations of initiation of crack growth and progression. Interrupted thermal experiments used acoustic emissions monitoring to identify the onset of crack progression during each cooling interval and ultrasonic scanning provided images of defect growth. Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) processes were performed in the assessment of the simulation predicted temperature at which crack propagation begins (quantity of interest). The Sobol sensitivity analysis identified the hoop direction elastic modulus in the carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) plies as the most influential parameter for simulations using both cohesive models, accounting for at least 70% of the variation in the temperature at crack propagation. The UQ temperature range for the Tvergaard-Hutchinson model was higher (more conservative) than the experimental acoustic measurement indicators of crack progression, while the temperature range for the Thouless-Parmigiani model enveloped the experimental data points for the primary defect size of 0.75 x 1 in. The simulations could not capture the stable crack growth indicated in the experiments. This is likely due to the models’ inability to represent anisotropic fracture toughness attributed to the structure of the orthotropic fiber weave in a woven composite laminate.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation, UQ, and Sensitivity Analysis for a New Diagnostic Setup [Slides]

This is for an early career talk I am giving at the Association for Women in Math’s Research Symposium. It provides a general overview of three projects: the first focuses on velocity measurements from optical laser diagnostics, the second focuses on probe alignment and location (metrology), and the third is my Site-Directed Research and Development (SDRD) which focuses on neural networks for image datasets. All three projects have strong uncertainty quantification components.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

DeepONet-grid-UQ: A trustworthy deep operator framework for predicting the power grid’s post-fault trajectories

This paper proposes a novel data-driven method for the reliable prediction of the power grid’s post-fault trajectories, i.e., the power grid’s dynamic response after a disturbance or fault. Here, the proposed method is based on the recently proposed concept of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets). Unlike traditional neural networks that learn to approximate functions, DeepONets are designed to approximate nonlinear operators, i.e., mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces. Under this operator framework, we design a novel and efficient DeepONet that (i) takes as inputs the trajectories collected before and during the fault and (ii) outputs the predicted post-fault trajectories. In addition, we endow our method with the much-needed ability to balance efficiency with reliable/trustworthy predictions via uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose and compare two novel methods that enable quantifying the predictive uncertainty. First, we propose a Bayesian DeepONet (B-DeepONet) that uses stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution of the DeepONet trainable parameters. Then, we design a Probabilistic DeepONet (Prob-DeepONet) that uses a probabilistic training strategy to enable quantifying uncertainty at virtually no extra computational cost. Finally, we validate the proposed methods’ predictive power and uncertainty quantification capability using the New York-New England power grid model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty for Conceptual Aircraft Design Leveraging Analytical Gradients

The purpose of this paper is to extend previously demonstrated methodologies for design under uncertainty, leveraging analytical gradients to higher fidelity analysis for use in conceptual aircraft design. Previous work developed methods to generate analytical derivatives through polynomial chaos expansion, eliminating the need to estimate derivatives via complex step or finite difference. In this research, the authors build upon the methods to include physics-based aircraft design codes for aircraft design under uncertainty. This extends the previous work’s case study, which employed analytical aerodynamics and Breguet range estimations for wing design, to a higher fidelity level. In addition, this work extends previous work on interface development between the Uncertainty Quantification with Polynomial Chaos Expansion (UQPCE) software and Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) frameworks. This paper will discuss the development work necessary to perform multidisciplinary design under uncertainty as well as demonstrate the mechanics of interfacing UQPCE and conceptual aircraft design tools such as NASA’s Aviary code. In a case study, a conceptual aircraft design under uncertainty was conducted and compared against a traditional deterministic design. When given information about the uncertainty space from UQPCE, the optimizer was able to shape the output distribution and produce a more robust design.

UQ↗