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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of sampling frequency and estimation method on phosphorus load uncertainty in the Western Lake Erie Basin, Ohio, USA

Accurate estimates of nutrient loads are necessary to identify critical source areas and quantify the impact of management practices on pollutant export. Previous studies have investigated nutrient load estimate uncertainty, but they often focus on nutrient loads estimated using an interpolation method for large-scale watersheds with short-term datasets. The study objective was to quantify uncertainty in soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended solids (SS) load estimates from two small (<10 3 km 2 ) agricultural watersheds in the western Lake Erie Basin resulting from different sampling frequencies. Each watershed had high temporal resolution datasets of discharge (15 min) and nutrient concentration (1 to 3 samples per day) collected over a 30-year period (1990–2020). Firstly, SRP, TP, and SS loads were calculated using the high temporal resolution datasets, which was assumed as “true loads”. Secondly, the high temporal concentration data were decomposed to semiweekly, weekly, biweekly, and monthly sampling and annual loads were estimated using four common load estimation methods to assess the effect of sampling frequency and load estimation method on load estimate error. Across the four different methods, the composite method had the lowest relative root mean square and absolute bias, but the rectangular interpolation method was the most precise. Furthermore, even with semiweekly sampling, the composite method resulted in an unacceptable level of precision (average imprecision = 39 %), while the interpolation method resulted in an unacceptable bias (average absolute bias = 16 %). Because neither method could provide acceptable accuracy and precision at the lowest decrease in sampling (e.t. semiweekly sampling), continued daily sampling is recommended in these watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Quantification and Statistical Engineering for Hypersonic Entry Applications

NASA has invested significant resources in developing and validating a mathematical construct for TPS margin management: a) Tailorable for low/high reliability missions; b) Tailorable for ablative/reusable TPS; c) Uncertainty Quantification and Statistical Engineering are valuable tools not exploited enough; and d) Need to define strategies combining both Theoretical Tools and Experimental Methods. The main reason for this lecture is to give a flavor of where UQ and SE could contribute and hope that the broader community will work with us to improve in these areas.

Cozmuta, Ioana↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of PBR Spent Fuel Criticality and Dose Rate Compliance for Storage and Transportation

Spent tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)–based fuels have a strong track record in storage and transportation without documented incidents. This work seeks to reduce uncertainty to aid in more informed spent fuel management of TRISO-based fuels by modeling both fresh and spent pebble bed reactor (PBR) fuel and comparing the results to the regulatory standards from 10 CFR 71. SCALE was used for all modeling due to it having fast and accurate methods for handling PBR fuel modeling, as well as having an efficient method for shielding calculations in monaco with automated variance reduction using importance calculations (MAVRIC), which utilizes the consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (CADIS) and the forward-weighted consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (FW-CADIS) methods. KENO-VI was used for all criticality calculations, TSUNAMI was used for uncertainty quantification on k-effective, TRITON and the Oak Ridge isotope generation code (ORIGEN) were both used for depletion of the fuel, and MAVRIC was used for shielding calculations. For criticality assessments, this study focused on the requirement that the value of the neutron multiplication factor, k-effective (k-eff), would not exceed a peak value of 0.95, including uncertainty, with 95% confidence. Criticality was initially examined by modeling fresh fuel from three different designs—HTR-10 fuel, PBMR-400 fuel, and demonstration fuel representative of a TRISO-fueled modern high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) design, henceforth referred to as Demo HTGR—and placing them into various sized containers with conditions described in 10 CFR 71 to quantify the peak k-eff state. When the peak value of 0.95 k-eff was exceeded, mitigation methods were examined in those scenarios. Burnup credit, pebble displacement in areas of strong neutron multiplication, and random pebble replacement using pebbles of various compositions and replacement fractions were examined. In summary, the criticality of PBR fuels can be well accounted for by restricting container size, taking credit for burnup, or by displacing/replacing pebbles. Uncertainty of the k-eff due to nuclear data uncertainties was recorded at ~0.6644%Δk/k, or roughly 664% mil (pcm). The nuclear data–induced uncertainty was relatively small and should not require significant modification in the design to be accounted for. Revisions to the evaluated nuclear data file values have been shown to have a larger impact than nuclear data–induced uncertainty. For dose rate aspects, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations require a maximum dose rate of 10 millirem per hour (mrem/h) at 2 meters. In examining the dose rate behavior of spent PBR fuel, the representative Demo HTGR fuel was modeled exclusively due to it possessing the highest target burnup of the examined fuels. Equilibrium cycle modeling methods were used to produce a higher-fidelity discharge isotopic composition than simple assumptions, such as reflected pebbles. The discharge composition was used as a source term in the fixed-source transport shielding calculations, and dose rates were calculated at 2 m for the shortest possible cooling time. The low concentration of fuel material led to dose rates that were in line with regulatory limits, despite the high burnup when compared to traditional light water reactor fuels. In conclusion, the methods employed in this study would require more work to further verify and validate and are limited to the criticality and dose rate analyses performed.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying the Effects of Departure and Flight Time Uncertainty on Urban Air Mobility Operations

Demand capacity balancing is a key mechanism for maintaining safe and efficient Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. However, uncertainties such as departure delays and flight time variation may reduce the effectiveness of algorithms used for balancing and detrimentally impact the safety and efficiency of UAM operations. In this paper, the effects of these uncertainties on UAM operations are quantified by modeling a distribution of departure and flight time errors. A route network in the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area was used to simulate traffic demand with and without uncertainty. Simulations were conducted with three main models of uncertainty – first uncertainty in departure time delay resulting in late takeoffs, second with uncertainty in flight times in addition to departure delays, and finally, uncertainty in departure times that cause either late or early takeoffs. Each of these simulations were performed using varied standard deviations to fully understand the effects of uncertainties. Results from these simulations were compared to a baseline simulation using the same parameters, but without any uncertainty. The results suggest that both safety and efficiency are significantly impacted by uncertainty even with relatively low uncertainty introduced. These results work towards quantifying the effects of uncertainty in flight scheduling for UAM. They will also aid in the further development of the demand capacity balancing algorithms for UAM operations and associated air traffic management.

Urban Air Mobility↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nondestructive Assay Technical Infrastructure Program Mission and Vision

The Nondestructive Assay Program (NDAP) mission and vision is achieved by identifying and accomplishing a set of programmatic goals that correspond with eight broad technical program elements. The NDAP was created as a result of Defense Nuclear Facility Safety Board Recommendation 2007-1, entitled “Safety-Related In Situ Nondestructive Assay of Radioactive Materials,” which emphasized the need to improve in situ measurements of radioactive material at US Department of Energy (DOE) defense nuclear facilities. An NDAP five-year plan will define tasks to accomplish specific goals identified in the NDAP mission and vision. This mission and vision is applicable for eight technical program elements: Hardware/Software Development, Algorithm Development and Nuclear Data, Uncertainty Quantification, Nuclear Materials, Staffing, Personnel, And Training, Data Management, Requirement and Standards, and Information Preservation and Dissemination. An additional program element is technical support, which provides daily execution management support for the NDAP, site scope, and deliverable tracking via site task managers, along with technical advisement and support from the technical support group. The NDAP mission and vision provides attributes with specific goals for each program element, and some goals benefit multiple program elements. The goals and attributes defined herein are implemented via an NDAP five-year execution plan that defines site work scope, budget, and deliverables, all of which are updated annually. The NDAP is designed to benefit nondestructive assay (NDA) needs to support DOE nuclear criticality safety programs, ensuring that NDA technology is sufficiently capable of guaranteeing the safety of those who handle, store, process, or transport fissionable materials in the complex. Especially important for the NDAP is to maximize capabilities to identify, characterize, and manage in situ fissile material deposits in process equipment to ensure nuclear criticality safety at processing facilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

soaring↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of autonomous vehicles on commute ridesharing with uncertain work end time

The uncertainty in work end time can prevent ridesharing between two commuters with identical home and work locations. This effect can be alleviated by autonomous vehicles (AV): when two commuters share a ride from home to work, if the realized work end times result in a long wait between the two, an additional AV can be easily repositioned from home to work, whereas with regular human-driven vehicles one has to either bear the long wait or request expensive taxi service. This observation implies that AVs have great potential for increasing commute ridesharing. To study this effect, we develop evening commute bottleneck models with uncertain work end time and establish mode choice equilibrium for the round-trip commute. We find that, with regular vehicles, because of the expected waiting cost caused by work end time uncertainty, commuters typically do not share rides even though they have the same home and work locations. With AVs, commuters always share rides for the morning commute, and they also share rides for the evening commute if their work end times turn out to be close; otherwise, they reposition an additional AV to pick one of them up. Finally, our numerical examples show that AVs can encourage commute ridesharing and significantly reduce the expected round-trip travel costs for commuters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2010

Utilization of Hydrologic Remote Sensing Data in Land Surface Modeling and Data Assimilation: Current Status and Challenges

Recent advances in remote sensing technologies have enabled the monitoring and measurement of the Earth's land surface at an unprecedented scale and frequency. The myriad of these land surface observations must be integrated with the state-of-the-art land surface model forecasts using data assimilation to generate spatially and temporally coherent estimates of environmental conditions. These analyses are of critical importance to real-world applications such as agricultural production, water resources management and flood, drought, weather and climate prediction. This need motivated the development of NASA Land Information System (LIS), which is an expert system encapsulating a suite of modeling, computational and data assimilation tools required to address challenging hydrological problems. LIS integrates the use of several community land surface models, use of ground and satellite based observations, data assimilation and uncertainty estimation techniques and high performance computing and data management tools to enable the assessment and prediction of hydrologic conditions at various spatial and temporal scales of interest. This presentation will focus on describing the results, challenges and lessons learned from the use of remote sensing data for improving land surface modeling, within LIS. More specifically, studies related to the improved estimation of soil moisture, snow and land surface temperature conditions through data assimilation will be discussed. The presentation will also address the characterization of uncertainty in the modeling process through Bayesian remote sensing and computational methods.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Software risk estimation and management techniques at JPL

In this talk we will discuss how uncertainty has been incorporated into the JPL software model, probabilistic-based estimates, and how risk is addressed, how cost risk is currently being explored via a variety of approaches, from traditional risk lists, to detailed WBS-based risk estimates to the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool.

software risk↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying Effects of Departure and Flight Time Uncertainty on Urban Air Mobility Operations

Demand capacity balancing is a key mechanism for maintaining safe and efficient Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. However, uncertainties such as departure delays and flight time variation may reduce the effectiveness of algorithms used for balancing and detrimentally impact the safety and efficiency of UAM operations. In this paper, the effects of these uncertainties on UAM operations are quantified by modeling a distribution of departure and flight time errors. A route network in the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area was used to simulate traffic demand with and without uncertainty. Simulations were conducted with three main models of uncertainty – first uncertainty in departure time delay resulting in late takeoffs, second with uncertainty in flight times in addition to departure delays, and finally, uncertainty in departure times that cause either late or early takeoffs. Each of these simulations were performed using varied standard deviations to fully understand the effects of uncertainties. Results from these simulations were compared to a baseline simulation using the same parameters, but without any uncertainty. The results suggest that both safety and efficiency are significantly impacted by uncertainty even with relatively low uncertainty introduced. These results work towards quantifying the effects of uncertainty in flight scheduling for UAM. They will also aid in the further development of the demand capacity balancing algorithms for UAM operations and associated air traffic management.

Urban Air Mobility↗
DOE OSTI2024

STAT7 v1.2 User Guide: The STAT7 Code for Statistical Propagation of Uncertainties in Steady-State Thermal Hydraulics Analysis of Plate-Fueled Reactors

The STAT7 software was developed to perform steady-state, single-phase thermal hydraulics analysis of plate-fueled reactors based on statistical propagation of uncertainties. Application of the software is for non-power research and test reactors, including conversion to low-enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High-Performance Research Reactors such as Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor. Since it can be necessary to repeat analysis during fuel reloading, STAT7 accommodates flexibility in analyzing many realistic aspects of reactor fuel management. STAT7 uses a Monte Carlo approach to model uncertainty in common fuel fabrication parameters and other key reactor operating parameters required for thermal hydraulics analyses of research and test reactors. These safety calculations are ultimately intended to protect against high fuel plate temperatures due to critical heat flux, or onset of flow instability. STAT7 supports water properties based on the IAPWS-IF97 functions (The International Association for the Properties of Water and Steam Industrial Formulation 1997 for the Thermodynamic Properties of Water and Steam) in addition to the fit functions. STAT7 predicts axial profiles of fuel, cladding, and coolant temperature along a lateral stripe that runs the full length of the fuel plate from the bottom to the top. STAT7 can simultaneously analyze all of the axial nodes of all of the fuel plates and all of the coolant channels for one latera stripe of a fuel element. Power splits are calculated for each axial node of each plate to determine how much of the power goes out each face of the plate. By running STAT7 multiple times, full core analysis can be performed by analyzing the margin to onset of nucleate boiling and onset of flow instability for each axial node of each stripe of each plate of each fuel element in the core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

STAT7 v2.0 User Guide

The STAT7 software was developed to perform steady-state, single-phase thermal hydraulics analysis of plate-fueled reactors based on statistical propagation of uncertainties. Application of the software includes non-power research and test reactor analysis, and it has been used for the conversion to low- enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High Performance Research Reactors such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor. Since it can be necessary to repeat reactor safety analysis, such as during fuel reloading, STAT7 accommodates flexibility in analyzing many practical aspects of reactor fuel management. STAT7 uses a Monte Carlo approach to model uncertainty in common fuel fabrication parameters and other key reactor operating parameters required for reactor thermal hydraulics analysis. These safety calculations are ultimately intended to protect against high fuel plate temperatures due to critical heat flux, or onset of flow instability. STAT7 supports water properties based on the IAPWS-IF97 functions (The International Association for the Properties of Water and Steam Industrial Formulation 1997 for the Thermodynamic Properties of Water and Steam) in addition to fitted functions. STAT7 predicts axial profiles of fuel, cladding, and coolant temperature along a lateral stripe that runs the full length of the fuel plate from the bottom to the top. STAT7 can simultaneously analyze every axial node in each lateral stripe of all fuel plates and coolant channels in every fuel element of an entire reactor core. Power splits are calculated for each axial node of each plate to determine how much of the power goes out each face of the plate. In a single execution, STAT7 can be used to perform full core analysis by analyzing the margin to onset of nucleate boiling and onset of flow instability for each axial node of each stripe of each plate of each fuel element in the core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simplified Green-Ampt Model, Imbibition-Based Estimates of Permeability, and Implications for Leak-off in Hydraulic Fracturing

Predicting water imbibition into porous materials is important in a wide variety of fields, and hydraulic fracturing of low permeability hydrocarbon reservoirs has emerged as an application that is imposing a large water footprint. Furthermore, reliable predictions of imbibition are needed to better manage water use, yet are challenging because of uncertainties in both the permeability and capillary pressure driving force. Here, this uncertainty is reduced through evaluating correlations between the permeability and the effective capillary pressure associated with the wetting front, P c,f . These correlations allow elimination of P c,f from the Green and Ampt equation and concentrate all uncertainties in fluxes on the effective permeability k . Over a wide range of k and porosities n , imbibition scales approximately with k 1/3 . Although Leverett k 1/4 scaling for predicting P c,f is shown to be inferior when tested with data spanning a wide range of n , it nevertheless predicted imbibition fairly well. From simple imbibition measurements, both the empirical and Leverett scaling approaches allow estimates of k that have root-mean-square deviations of about one order of magnitude relative to measurements that ranged over 10 orders of magnitude in k .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966–2005) and future (2011–2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. This study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Resilience of Urban Systems Against Climate-Induced Floods Using Advanced Data-Driven and Computing Techniques: A Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) Framework

Focal Area: This white paper proposes advanced data-driven and computing techniques to improve the predictability of extreme climate events (precipitation) and focuses on comprehending their impact dynamics to enhance resilience of urban systems. Science Challenge: In urban systems, climate change has presented significant challenges related to accurate spatiotemporal prediction of extreme climate events (heavy precipitation) and their impacts, i.e. flooding. The occurrence of extreme climate events and their compounding repercussions on the built environment make urban systems increasingly more vulnerable. The interactions between extreme climate events, urban systems, and the corresponding impacts are irregular, non-linear, and dynamic, making it difficult to standardize resilience. As it stands, the management of complex urban systems is affected by uncertainties related to the nature of short- and long-term consequences caused by extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Conceptual design environment

Opportunities in conceptual design reside in the fact that the greatest chance for cost reduction occurs during the early stages of product development. The conceptual design problem encompasses managing complex engineering information, multiple interacting groups, and uncertainty. Presented in viewgraph form are the opportunities in conceptual design, the design scenario, and technical issues and approaches.

Buckley, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Dynamic Coastal Response to Sea-level Rise Modifies Inundation Likelihood

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30x30m resolution predictions for more than 38,000 sq km of diverse coastal landscape in the northeastern United States. Probabilistic SLR projections, coastal elevation and vertical land movement are used to estimate likely future inundation levels. Then, conditioned on future inundation levels and the current land-cover type, we evaluate the likelihood of dynamic response versus inundation. We find that nearly 70% of this coastal landscape has some capacity to respond dynamically to SLR, and we show that inundation models over-predict land likely to submerge. This approach is well suited to guiding coastal resource management decisions that weigh future SLR impacts and uncertainty against ecological targets and economic constraints.

Climate-change impacts↗