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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2–CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks are analyzed. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi-dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties, are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2–CAM6 PPE is publicly available and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g., coupling to the land surface).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed Applications and Science – Past, Present, & Future

This is a presentation to be made at the University of Tokyo. The Idaho National Laboratory is creating the next-generation reliability- and risk-assessment methods and tools that support risk-informed decision-making by combining physics-based models with probabilistic quantification approaches. Integrating these two worlds of physics and probability using a simulation framework leads us to predictions based upon an approach called “computational risk assessment” which will serve as the technical basis for the future of reliability and risk approaches. The driving factors for this new approach includes: temporal (timing issues), spatial (location issues), mechanistic (physics issues), and topological (complexity issues). By combining phenomenology directly with stochastic quantification, we are able to perform advanced uncertainty analysis directly on both parameters and models. In addition, new tools allow for the creation of reduced order models that mimic high-fidelity engineering models while still permitting the realization of thousands of simulation iterations in short run-times on current workstation-class computers. While these advanced methods and tools can provide increased realism in our engineering safety and risk approaches, their greater benefit is to provide a risk-informed engineering framework for design and operation. This talk will briefly review the history of risk assessment and risk-informed applications, describe some of the current research and development found at the Idaho National Laboratory, and discuss potential future applications and approaches for advanced methods and tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

DEMONSTRATION OF MULTI-PHYSICS EVALUATION OF FUEL ROD BURST PROBABILITY WITH BURNUP EXTENSION UNDER LBLOCA CONDITIONS

Extending the fuel discharge burnup level, e.g., from the current limit of rod averaged discharge burnup limit of 62 GWD/MT to a proposed new limit of 75 GWD/MT, can provide significant economic benefits to the current fleet of operating light water reactors (LWRs). It allows for longer operating cycles and improved resource utilization. The major economic gain of longer operating cycles is attributable to the increased capacity factor resulting from decreased refueling time as a fraction of total operating time, as well as fewer assemblies to be discharged for a given amount of energy produced. The main licensing challenges for higher burnup fuel are to ensure fuel rod safety under design basis accident conditions, especially under large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) and reactivity insertion accident (RIA). In this work, two-year cycle core design for a typical 4-loop pressurized water reactor (PWR) is performed with enrichment increased up to 6% and burnup extended to 75 GWD/MT. The fuel rod burst potential evaluations under large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) conditions are subsequently performed using the multi-physics best estimate plus uncertainty analysis framework LOTUS (LOCA Toolkit for the U.S. LWRs) and the preliminary results are presented.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification of Life Models for Li-Ion Batteries Using Penalized Regression and Bilevel Optimization

Reduced-order physics-based life models are extremely useful for rapidly predicting battery state-of-health and for simulating battery lifetime in arbitrary aging conditions. However, identification of well-parameterized models is difficult. This is because, for maximum usefulness in predicting lifetime under a variety of conditions, aging test data exhibits many degradation mechanisms, which all need to be accurately modeled. However, because aging tests are time-consuming and expensive, especially for large-format batteries, a minimum of tests are conducted while probing many stress factors. Building a well-parameterized model is then very challenging: an under-parameterized model will neglect critical degradation modes, and an over-parameterized model will extrapolate poorly to new testing conditions. To complicate this matter, the functional form of the model for any individual degradation rate can be very difficult to identify. In this work, the statistical tools of penalized regression and bilevel optimization are used to help identify both the functional forms of and optimize the parameters of reduced-order life models, accelerating identification of robust models. Model robustness is demonstrated through traditional statistics methods of cross-validation and sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification through bootstrap resampling and Monte-Carlo simulation, and simulation of real-world use cases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale Experiments and Multiphysics Simulation of Multiphase Flow for Transportable Small Modular Reactors

A new type of safe, small, transportable nuclear reactor would address the intense and ever-growing global demand for energy produced via a resilient, carbon-free energy source. In this regard, transportable small modular reactors (SMRs) are being designed and developed for electricity generation within small/micro-grid/off-grid isolated systems, as well as for heat generation in industrial/residential applications. These reactors feature the capability to be fully factory fabricated and then directly transported to utilities’ sites as “plug-and-play” systems. Research and development (R&D) programs are underway at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to successfully design, develop, and demonstrate such safe-by-design mobile reactor technologies, in collaboration with partner organizations. Multiscale experimental facilities and multiphysics simulation tools are required for reactor design verification and validation (V&V), and licensing. These advanced reactors are intended to feature passive safety systems such as passive containment cooling systems (PCCS), which consist of multiphase flows and multispecies distributions. This seminar talk will focus on designing and analyzing transportable SMR PCCS by using multiscale experiments and multiphysics computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to support reactor licensing and safety. The corresponding research challenges are addressed via supportive verification and validation results generated by the models and simulation tools in combination with selective parametric and uncertainty analysis. This solution approach could blaze the trail for commercial adoption of such technologies. The facilities, simulation capabilities, and research opportunities available at INL in regard to such reactors and the integrated energy systems with which they go hand in hand are also discussed briefly, and may spark interest in deeper research as well as new collaborative projects.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reactivity Coefficient Measurements and Sensitivity Studies [Abstract]

Nuclear data validation is often performed today using criticality measurements. The gold standard for criticality measurements is the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiment Project (ICSBEP). The validation specifically focuses on the effective multiplication factor (k eff ). K eff is a relatively easy parameter to infer and has reduced uncertainty due to being at or above critical. However, while k eff is a well-documented parameter with detailed sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, it cannot be used as a standalone metric to determine inaccuracies in nuclear data (e.g., cross section data, PFNS, nu), which is based on theory, physics, and differential measurements. The Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data (EUCLID) project aims to identify compensating errors in specific nuclear data by optimally designing experiments that are sensitive to a suite of measurement parameters beyond k eff . By identifying how each parameter's nuclear data sensitivity differs from others, experiments can be designed to constrain questionable nuclear data. One sensitivity that is of particular interest to this project includes reactivity coefficient sensitivities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Update on the International Reactor Physics Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) for EGPRS

This set of slides provides an overview of benchmarking work for the International Reactor Physics Evaluation (IRPhE) project, to be presented to the Expert Group on Physics of Reactor Systems (EGPRS), which is an expert group within the OECD/NEA Working Party on Scientific Issues and Uncertainty Analysis of Reactor Systems (WPRS).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validating Mixtures of 233 U, 235 U, and 239 Pu for the Sum-of-Fractions Method

The Sum-of-Fractions method is a technique used to assure that homogeneous mixtures of fissile and fissionable isotopes are below a minimum margin of k eff or reactivity. Current work by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory examines different mixtures of 233 U, 235 U, and 239 Pu to determine critical mass limits for mixtures of transuranic actinides lacking a validation basis. To provide a validation basis for these limits, the work presented here describes the results of a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of various mixtures of these isotopes in various concentrations moderated and reflected by light water and polyethylene. The TSUNAMI-1D sequence in the SCALE code system was used to generate sensitivity coefficients for three different concentrations of mixtures of 233 U, 235 U, and 239 Pu. The TSUNAMI-IP sequence was then used for similarity assessment (c k ) with critical benchmark experiment sensitivity data files (SDFs) from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data and the Nuclear Energy Agency SDF database. The VADER sequence in SCALE was used for statistical testing and to generate upper subcritical limits from the data to develop a basis for validating critical mass limits.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fuel performance uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis in the presence of epistemic and aleatoric sources of uncertainties

Fuel performance modeling and simulation includes many uncertain parameters from models to boundary conditions, manufacturing parameters and material properties. These parameters exhibit large uncertainties and can have an epistemic or aleatoric nature, something that renders fuel performance code-to-code and code-to-measurements comparisons for complex phenomena such as the pellet cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI) very challenging. Additionally, PCMI and other complex phenomena found in fuel performance modeling and simulation induce strong discontinuities and non-linearities that can render difficult to extract meaningful conclusions form uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) studies. In this work, we develop and apply a consistent treatment of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties for both UQ and SA in fuel performance calculations and use historical benchmark-quality measurement data to demonstrate it. More specifically, the developed methodology is applied to the OECD/NEA Multi-physics Pellet Cladding Mechanical Interaction Validation benchmark. A cold ramp test leading to PCMI is modeled. Two measured quantities of interest are considered: the cladding axial elongation during the irradiations and the cladding outer diameter after the cold ramp. The fuel performance code used to perform the simulation is FAST. The developed methodology involves various steps including a Morris screening to decrease the number of uncertain inputs, a nested loop approach for propagating the epistemic and aleatoric sources of uncertainties, and a global SA using Sobol indices. The obtained results indicate that the fuel and cladding thermal conductivities as well as the cladding outer diameter uncertainties are the three inputs having the largest impact on the measured quantities. More importantly, it was found that the epistemic uncertainties can have a significant impact on the measured quantities and can affect the outcome of the global sensitivity analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling study of deep direct use geothermal on the West Virginia university campus-morgantown, WV

To reduce the geothermal exploration risk, a feasibility study is performed for a deep direct-use (DDU) system proposed at the West Virginia University (WVU) Morgantown campus. This study applies numerical simulations to investigate reservoir impedance and thermal production. Because of the great depth of the geothermal reservoir, few data are available to characterize reservoir features and properties. Consequently, the study focuses on the following three aspects: 1. model choice for predicting reservoir impedance and thermal breakthrough: after investigating three potential models (one single permeability model and two dual permeability models) for flow through fractured rock, it is decided only the single permeability model is needed; 2. well placement (horizontal vs. vertical) options: horizontal well placement seems to be more robust to heterogeneity and the impedance is more acceptable; 3. Prediction uncertainty: the most influential parameters are identified using a First-Order-Second-Moment uncertainty propagation analysis, and the uncertain range of the model predictions is estimated by performing a Monte Carlo simulation. Heterogeneity has a large impact on the prediction, therefore, heterogeneity is included in the predictive model and uncertainty analysis. The numerical model results and uncertainty analysis will be used for further economic studies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validating Nuclear Data Uncertainties Obtained from a Statistical Analysis of Experimental Data with the “Physical Uncertainty Bounds” Method

Concerns within the nuclear data community led to substantial increases of Neutron Data Standards (NDS) uncertainties from its previous to the current version. For example, those associated with the NDS reference cross section 239 Pu(n,f) increased from 0.6–1.6% to 1.3–1.7% from 0.1–20 MeV. These cross sections, among others, were adopted, e.g., by ENDF/B-VII.1 (previous NDS) and ENDF/B-VIII.0 (current NDS). There has been a strong desire to be able to validate these increases based on objective criteria given their impact on our understanding of various application uncertainties. Here, the “Physical Uncertainty Bounds” method (PUBs) by Vaughan et al. is applied to validate evaluated uncertainties obtained by a statistical analysis of experimental data. We investigate with PUBs whether ENDF/B-VII.1 or ENDF/B-VIII.0 239 Pu(n,f) cross-section uncertainties are more realistic given the information content used for the actual evaluation. It is shown that the associated conservative (1.5–1.8%) and minimal realistic (1.1–1.3%) uncertainty bounds obtained by PUBs enclose ENDF/B-VIII.0 uncertainties and indicate that ENDF/B-VII.1 uncertainties are underestimated.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Network Uncertainty Quantification for Analysis of Multi-Component Systems

To impact physical mechanical system design decisions and realize the full promise of high-fidelity computational tools, simulation results must be integrated at the earliest stages of the design process. This is particularly challenging when dealing with uncertainty and optimizing for system-level performance metrics, as full-system models (often notoriously expensive and time-consuming to develop) are generally required to propagate uncertainties to system-level quantities of interest. Methods for propagating parameter and boundary condition uncertainty in networks of interconnected components hold promise for enabling design under uncertainty in real-world applications. These methods avoid the need for time consuming mesh generation of full-system geometries when changes are made to components or subassemblies. Additionally, they explicitly tie full-system model predictions to component/subassembly validation data which is valuable for qualification. These methods work by leveraging the fact that many engineered systems are inherently modular, being comprised of a hierarchy of components and subassemblies that are individually modified or replaced to define new system designs. By doing so, these methods enable rapid model development and the incorporation of uncertainty quantification earlier in the design process. The resulting formulation of the uncertainty propagation problem is iterative. We express the system model as a network of interconnected component models, which exchange solution information at component boundaries. We present a pair of approaches for propagating uncertainty in this type of decomposed system and provide implementations in the form of an open-source software library. We demonstrate these tools on a variety of applications and demonstrate the impact of problem-specific details on the performance and accuracy of the resulting UQ analysis. This work represents the most comprehensive investigation of these network uncertainty propagation methods to date.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Particle image velocimetry analysis with simultaneous uncertainty quantification using Bayesian neural networks

Particle image velocimetry (PIV) is an effective tool in experimental fluid mechanics for extracting flow fields from images. Recently, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been used to perform PIV analysis with accuracy on par with classical methods. Here we extend the use of CNNs to analyze PIV data while providing simultaneous uncertainty quantification on the inferred flow field. The method we apply in this paper is a Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN) which learns distributions of the CNN weights through variational Bayes. In order to demonstrate the utility of BCNNs for the PIV task, we compare the performance of three distinct BCNN models with simple architectures. The first network estimates flow velocity from image interrogation regions only. Our second model learns to infer velocity from both the image interrogation regions and interrogation region cross-correlation maps. Finally, our best performing network infers velocities from interrogation region cross-correlation maps only. We find that BCNNs using interrogation region cross-correlation maps as inputs perform better than those using interrogation windows only as inputs and discuss reasons why this may be the case. Additionally, we test the best performing BCNN on a full synthetic test image pair and a real image pair from the 1st International PIV Challenge. We show that ~98% of true particle displacements from the full synthetic image pair can be captured within the BCNN's 95% confidence intervals, and that the BCNN's performance on the real image pair is quantitatively similar to that of algorithms tested in the 1st International PIV Challenge. Finally, we show that BCNNs can be generalized to be used with multi-pass PIV algorithms with a moderate loss in accuracy, which may be overcome by future work on finetuning and training schemes. So to our knowledge, this is the first use of Bayesian neural networks to perform PIV.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variability and associated uncertainty in image analysis for soiling characterization in solar energy systems

The accumulation of soiling on photovoltaic modules and on the mirrors of concentrating solar power systems causes non-negligible energy losses with economic consequences. These challenges can be mitigated, or even prevented, through appropriate actions if the magnitude of soiling is known. Particle counting analysis is a common procedure to characterize soiling, as it can be easily performed on micrographs of glass coupons or solar devices that have been exposed to the environment. Particle counting does not, however, yield invariant results across institutions. The particle size distribution analysis is affected by the operator of the image analysis software and the methodology utilized. The results of a round-robin study are presented in this work to explore and elucidate the uncertainty related to particle counting and its effect on the characterization of the soiling of glass surfaces used in solar energy conversion systems. An international group of soiling experts analyzed the same 8 micrographs using the same open-source ImageJ software package. The variation in the particle analyses results were investigated to identify specimen characteristics with the lowest coefficient of variation (CV) and the least uncertainty among the various operators. The mean particle diameter showed the lowest CV among the investigated characteristics, whereas the number of particles exhibited the largest CV. Additional parameters, such as the fractional area coverage by particles and parameters related to the distribution's shape yielded intermediate CV values. These results can provide insights on the magnitude inter-lab variability and uncertainty for optical and microscope-based soiling monitoring and characterization.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of coated cladding impact on large-break LOCA with TRACE-DAKOTA

Since 2011, the U.S. Department of Energy has launched new research and development (R&D) programs for developing new accident tolerant fuels (ATFs). These new fuel concepts are expected to bring several advancements in terms of plant safety. However, development, licensing, as well as deployment of ATF require a substantial investment among fuel vendors, operating utilities, and regulatory authorities. For ATF to be economically feasible, credited safety benefits may be necessary to provide an economic incentive for transition of nuclear power plants from Zr/UO2-based fuel technologies to ATFs. As a result, it is essential to evaluate the economic viability of ATF by conducting a comprehensive safety benefits study informed by R&D and demonstration studies. In the present work, based on the best estimate plus uncertainty methodology, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for key safety quantities under LB-LOCA are performed for the Peach Bottom boiling water reactor (BWR) with GE14 nuclear fuel design adopting the ATF concepts. A coupled TRACE-DAKOTA analysis framework is adopted to perform the uncertainty quantification. Based on the computational results and obtained statistics, the coping time increase, fuel performance improvement as well as the most dominating phenomena during the accident for Cr-coated cladding are investigated in detail. Overall, the results obtained are useful for subsequent plant PRA study and support a move to more modernized performance-based regulatory requirements to realize plant economic benefits.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Studies for Advanced Reactor Using RAVEN

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is used extensively to evaluate the risks associated with complex engineering systems like Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Current PSA models are based on the Event-Tree/Fault-Tree (ET/FT) methodology. ET and FT models are static and are based on Boolean logic approaches. In the past, concerns have been raised in the literature regarding the capability of the traditional static modelling approaches to adequately account for the impact of process, hardware, software, firmware and human interactions on the stochastic system behaviour. To overcome the limitations of the traditional approach to PSA, several dynamic PSA methodologies have been proposed. One of the dynamic PSA methodologies used for dynamic evaluations is Dynamic Event Tree (DET) framework which can be used to assess the impact of the parameter variability and scenario dynamics on the PSA model for the initiating event. The DET framework couples the stochastic model (number of component/trains that start on demand, operator action timing, etc.) with a Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) model of the plant. This paper explores the use of DET along with a case study on advanced reactor. The initiating event selected for the study was Class IV power supply failure event. The TH analysis considering uncertainty in various parameters was performed using RELAP5 and Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment (RAVEN) tool. Based on the uncertainty analysis, it is concluded that the peak clad temperatures (PCT) are within the limits in all the code runs implying a high-degree of safety margin. However, variation in time to reach the PCT was observed among the code runs and the mean time to reach the PCT was found to be around 8590sec (approximately 2.4 hours). Hence, sufficient time margin is available for human intervention and the operator might have a relatively stress-free state during such an accident scenario. Due to the static nature of the traditional PSA models, the safety margin available was lesser, whereas, with the help of dynamic PSA models, one can demonstrate that the actual available safety margin is more in the present case study and is valuable input from the design point of view.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: Cosmological Analysis and Systematic Uncertainties

We present the full Hubble diagram of photometrically classified Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey supernova program (DES-SN). DES-SN discovered more than 20,000 SN candidates and obtained spectroscopic redshifts of 7000 host galaxies. Based on the light-curve quality, we select 1635 photometrically identified SNe Ia with spectroscopic redshift 0.10 < z < 1.13, which is the largest sample of supernovae from any single survey and increases the number of known z > 0.5 supernovae by a factor of 5. In a companion paper, we present cosmological results of the DES-SN sample combined with 194 spectroscopically classified SNe Ia at low redshift as an anchor for cosmological fits. Here we present extensive modeling of this combined sample and validate the entire analysis pipeline used to derive distances. We show that the statistical and systematic uncertainties on cosmological parameters are ${\sigma }_{{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{M},\mathrm{stat}+\mathrm{sys}}^{{\rm{\Lambda }}\mathrm{CDM}}=$ 0.017 in a flat ΛCDM model, and $({\sigma }_{{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{M}},{\sigma }_{w}{)}_{\mathrm{stat}+\mathrm{sys}}^{w\mathrm{CDM}}$ = (0.082, 0.152) in a flat wCDM model. Combining the DES SN data with the highly complementary cosmic microwave background measurements by Planck Collaboration reduces by a factor of 4 uncertainties on cosmological parameters. In all cases, statistical uncertainties dominate over systematics. We show that uncertainties due to photometric classification make up less than 10% of the total systematic uncertainty budget. This result sets the stage for the next generation of SN cosmology surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗