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At least 253 records · Page 14

Wireless Phone Threat Assessment and New Wireless Technology Concerns for Aircraft Navigation Radios

To address the concern for cellular phone electromagnetic interference to aircraft radios, a radiated emission measurement process was developed for two dominant digital standards of wireless handsets. Spurious radiated emissions were efficiently characterized from devices tested in either a semi-anechoic or reverberation chamber, in terms of effective radiated power. Eight representative handsets (four from each digital standard) were commanded to operate while varying their radio transmitter parameters (power, modulation, etc.). This report provides a detailed description of the measurement process and resulting data, which may subsequently be used by others as a basis of consistent evaluation of other portable transmitters using a variety of wireless transmission protocols. Aircraft interference path loss and navigation radio interference threshold data from numerous reference documents, standards, and NASA partnerships were compiled. Using these data, a preliminary risk assessment is provided for wireless phone interference to aircraft Localizer, Glideslope, Very High Frequency Omni directional Range, and Global Positioning Satellite radio receivers on typical transport airplanes. The report identifies where existing data for device emissions, interference path loss, and navigation radio interference thresholds need to be extended for an accurate risk assessment for wireless transmitters in aircraft.

Ely, Jay J.↗

Robust Timing Synchronization in Aeronautical Mobile Communication Systems

This work details a study of robust synchronization schemes suitable for satellite to mobile aeronautical applications. A new scheme, the Modified Sliding Window Synchronizer (MSWS), is devised and compared with existing schemes, including the traditional Early-Late Gate Synchronizer (ELGS), the Gardner Zero-Crossing Detector (GZCD), and the Sliding Window Synchronizer (SWS). Performance of the synchronization schemes is evaluated by a set of metrics that indicate performance in digital communications systems. The metrics are convergence time, mean square phase error (or root mean-square phase error), lowest SNR for locking, initial frequency offset performance, midstream frequency offset performance, and system complexity. The performance of the synchronizers is evaluated by means of Matlab simulation models. A simulation platform is devised to model the satellite to mobile aeronautical channel, consisting of a Quadrature Phase Shift Keying modulator, an additive white Gaussian noise channel, and a demodulator front end. Simulation results show that the MSWS provides the most robust performance at the cost of system complexity. The GZCD provides a good tradeoff between robustness and system complexity for communication systems that require high symbol rates or low overall system costs. The ELGS has a high system complexity despite its average performance. Overall, the SWS, originally designed for multi-carrier systems, performs very poorly in single-carrier communications systems. Table 5.1 in Section 5 provides a ranking of each of the synchronization schemes in terms of the metrics set forth in Section 4.1. Details of comparison are given in Section 5. Based on the results presented in Table 5, it is safe to say that the most robust synchronization scheme examined in this work is the high-sample-rate Modified Sliding Window Synchronizer. A close second is its low-sample-rate cousin. The tradeoff between complexity and lowest mean-square phase error determines the rankings of the Gardner Zero-Crossing Detector and both versions of the Early-Late Gate Synchronizer. The least robust models are the high and low-sample-rate Sliding Window Synchronizers. Consequently, the recommended replacement synchronizer for NASA's Advanced Air Transportation Technologies mobile aeronautical communications system is the high-sample-rate Modified Sliding Window Synchronizer. By incorporating this synchronizer into their system, NASA can be assured that their system will be operational in extremely adverse conditions. The quick convergence time of the MSWS should allow the use of high-level protocols. However, if NASA feels that reduced system complexity is the most important aspect of their replacement synchronizer, the Gardner Zero-Crossing Detector would be the best choice.

Xiong, Fu-Qin↗

Robust natural nanocomposites realizing unprecedented ultrafast precise molecular separations

Synthetic polymer membranes can potentially reduce the large energy and carbon footprints that are typically associated with traditional chemical separation technologies. Unfortunately, current production protocols negate the green benefits of membrane separation. To address this bottleneck, here we report the use of natural materials monosaccharide – glucose and polydopamine and Zr-based metal organic frameworks (MOFs) to fabricate ultrathin nanocomposite membranes via interfacial polymerization reaction. The synergistic effect of these three materials on angstrom-scale molecular transport both in organic solvent and aqueous environment was elucidated using a series of complementary techniques. We demonstrate such nature-inspired nanocomposite membranes enable structural stability even in polar aprotic solvents, and unparalleled ultra-fast, low-pressure, precise separations in both nanofiltration modes, which easily surpass state-of-the-art membranes relying on unsustainable materials. Finally, the multi-functionality of saccharide nanocomposites was elegantly harnessed to impact separation applications that contribute towards a better living environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advances in High-Power Wireless Charging Systems: Overview and Design Considerations

Wireless charging systems are foreseen as an effective solution to improve the convenience and safety of conventional conductive chargers. As this technology has matured, recent broad applications of wireless chargers to electrified transportation have indicated a trend toward higher power, power density, modularity, and scalability of designs. In this article, commercial systems and laboratory prototypes are reviewed, focusing mostly on the advances in high-power wireless charging systems. The recent endeavors in magnetic pad designs, compensation networks, power electronics converters, control strategies, and communication protocols are illustrated. Both stationary and dynamic (in-motion) wireless charging systems are discussed, and critical differences in their designs and applications are emphasized. On that basis, the comparisons among different solutions and design considerations are summarized to present the essential elements and technology roadmap that will be necessary to support large-scale deployment of high-power wireless charging systems. The review is concluded with the discussion of several fundamental challenges and prospects of high-power wireless power transfer (WPT) systems. Foreseen challenges include utilization of advanced materials, electric and electromagnetic field measurement and mitigation, customization, communications, power metering, and cybersecurity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Clean Assembly of Genesis Collector Canister for Flight: Lessons for Planetary Sample Return

Measurement of solar composition in the Genesis collectors requires not only high sensitivity but very low blanks; thus, very strict collector contamination minimization was required beginning with mission planning and continuing through hardware design, fabrication, assembly and testing. Genesis started with clean collectors and kept them clean inside of a canister. The mounting hardware and container for the clean collectors were designed to be cleanable, with access to all surfaces for cleaning. Major structural components were made of aluminum and cleaned with megasonically energized ultrapure water (UPW). The UPW purity was >18 M resistivity. Although aluminum is relatively difficult to clean, the Genesis protocol achieved level 25 and level 50 cleanliness on large structural parts; however, the experience suggests that surface treatments may be helpful on future missions. All cleaning was performed in an ISO Class 4 (Class 10) cleanroom immediately adjacent to an ISO Class 4 assembly room; thus, no plastic packaging was required for transport. Persons assembling the canister were totally enclosed in cleanroom suits with face shield and HEPA filter exhaust from suit. Interior canister materials, including fasteners, were installed, untouched by gloves, using tweezers and other stainless steel tools. Sealants/lubricants were not exposed inside the canister, but vented to the exterior and applied in extremely small amounts using special tools. The canister was closed in ISO Class 4, not to be opened until on station at Earth-Sun L1. Throughout the cleaning and assembly, coupons of reference materials that were cleaned at the same time as the flight hardware were archived for future reference and blanks. Likewise reference collectors were archived. Post-mission analysis of collectors has made use of these archived reference materials.

Allton, J. H.↗

Generating a 4D Global CH(4) Product by Assimilating TROPOMI column CH(4) in NASA’s GEOS GCM

Examination of temporal and spatial CH4 variability is crucial for better understanding the human and natural processes driving climate change and ultimately designing mitigation strategies. Here we present an analysis framework that uses NASA’s GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) to construct a high-resolution, time varying picture of atmospheric CH4 consistent with measurements from a variety of platforms, both in situ and remotely sensed. The resulting time varying atmospheric CH4 product can (i) support interpretation of high-resolution point source detection approaches, (ii) provide reanalysis fields for CH4 and other greenhouse gases, and (iii) supply boundary conditions for regional models. Our approach starts with a set of CH4 emissions from various inventories that have been adjusted to match the global annual growth rate over recent decades. These emissions are transported by the GEOS GCM, which in turn is constrained by meteorology from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) product. The simulated atmospheric field is compared with CH4 measurements, such as those from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), and adjustments calculated following a Bayesian protocol. The accuracy of the resultant optimal atmospheric CH4 field can be demonstrated by its improved agreement (compared to a direct simulation of the CH4 inventories) with a host of independent CH4 measurements, such as those from the Total Carbon Column Observation Network (TCCON) and in situ observations from surface and airborne platforms.

Nikolay V. Balashov↗

Influences of North Pacific Ocean Domain Extent on the Western U.S. Winter Hydroclimatology in Variable-Resolution CESM

Variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) are a dynamical downscaling method that can reach spatiotemporal scales needed for regional climate assessments. Over the years, several users of VRGCMs have assumed where the location and extent of the refinement domain should be based on knowledge of the prevailing storm tracks and resolution dependence of important regional climate processes (e.g., atmospheric rivers [ARs] and orographic uplift), but the effect of high-resolution domain size and extent on the simulation of downstream hydroclimatic phenomena has not been systematically evaluated. Here, we use variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to perform such a test. To do this, three VR-CESM grids were generated that span the entire, two thirds, and one third of the North Pacific and evaluated for a 30-year climatology using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project protocols. Simulations are compared with reanalysis products offshore (fifth-generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis [ERA5]) and onshore (Livneh, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.42, and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) of the western United States. The westward expansion of refinement domain influenced integrated vapor transport (IVT), which was generally high biased but minimally impacted AR characteristics. Due to slight differences in landfalling AR counts in the western United States, California winter precipitation generally improved with westward expansion of the refinement domain. Western U.S. mountain snowpack and surface temperatures were insensitive to refinement domain size and were more influenced by changes in topographic resolution and/or land surface model version. Here, given minimal dependence of simulated western U.S. hydroclimate on refinement domain size over the North Pacific, we advise future VR-CESM studies to focus grid resolution on better resolving land surface heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multicomputer communication system

A local area network is provided for a plurality of autonomous computers which operate at different rates and under different protocols coupled by network bus adapters to a global bus. A host computer (HC) divides a message file to be transmitted into blocks, each with a header that includes a data type identifier and a trailer. The associated network bus adapter (NBA) then divides the data into packets, each with a header to which a transport header and trailer is added with frame type code which specifies one of three modes of addressing in the transmission of data, namely a physical address mode for computer to computer transmission using two bytes for source and destination addresses, a logical address mode and a data type mode. In the logical address mode, one of the two addressing bytes contains a logical channel number (LCN) established between the transmitting and one or more receiving computers. In the data type mode, one of the addressing bytes contains a code identifying the type of data.

Agrawal, A. K.↗

Open-Air Manufacturing of Efficient Large-Area Perovskite Solar Cells to Meet Stability and Cost Targets

This SETO-funded project (DE-EE0009516) developed a fully open-air manufacturing pathway for perovskite solar cells and modules, eliminating vacuum-based processing steps while improving device stability. Open-air ultrasonic spray deposition, solution combustion synthesis, rapid thermal processing, and atmospheric plasma curing were developed and optimized for all functional device layers — perovskite absorber, hole transport layers (HTLs), electron transport layers (ETLs), transparent conducting oxides (TCOs), and rear electrodes — without reliance on vacuum. Sprayed organic ETLs preserved perovskite crystal structure and enabled power conversion efficiencies exceeding 20%, and open-air processed TCOs and rear electrodes achieved optoelectronic performance comparable to sputtered alternatives at substantially lower manufacturing cost. Device stability was assessed through accelerated aging protocols aligned with IEC and ISOS standards, combined with high-throughput optical diagnostics that identified key degradation mechanisms and antagonistic interactions among heat, humidity, and illumination stressors. A comprehensive technoeconomic analysis quantified the cost and throughput advantages of open-air manufacturing over conventional vacuum-based processes, identifying vacuum deposition as the dominant cost driver and demonstrating a clear pathway toward the $0.02/kWh target. The project produced five peer-reviewed journal publications, eleven conference presentations, two patents/applications, and five Ph.D. dissertations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Refinement of Protocols for Measuring the Apparent Optical Properties of Seawater

Ocean color satellite missions, like the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) or the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) projects, are tasked with acquiring a global ocean color data set, validating and monitoring the accuracy and quality of the data, processing the radiometric data into geophysical units using a set of atmospheric and bio-optical algorithms, and distributing the final products to the scientific community. The long-standing requirement of the SeaWiFS Project, for example, is to produce spectral water-leaving radiances, LW(lambda), to within 5% absolute (lambda denotes wavelength) and chlorophyll a concentrations to within 35% (Hooker and Esaias 1993), and most ocean color sensors have the same or similar requirements. Although a diverse set of activities are required to ensure the accuracy requirements are met (Hooker and McClain 2000), the perspective here is with field observations. The accurate determination of upper ocean apparent optical properties (AOPs) is essential for the vicarious calibration of ocean color data and the validation of the derived data products, because the sea-truth measurements are used to evaluate the satellite observations (Hooker and McClain 2000). The uncertainties with in situ AOP measurements have various sources: a) the sampling procedures used in the field, including the environmental conditions encountered; b) the absolute characterization of the radiometers in the laboratory; c) the conversion of the light signals to geophysical units in a processing scheme, and d) the stability of the radiometers in the harsh environment they are subjected to during transport and use. Assuming ideal environmental conditions, so this aspect can be neglected, the SeaWiFS ground-truth uncertainty budget can only be satisfied if each uncertainty is on the order of 1-2%, or what is generally referred to as 1% radiometry. In recent years, progress has been made in estimating the magnitude of some of these uncertainties and in defining procedures for minimizing them. For the SeaWiFS Project, the first step was to convene a workshop to draft the SeaWiFS Ocean Optics Protocols (hereafter referred to as the Protocols). The Protocols initially adhered to the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) sampling procedures (JGOFS 1991) and defined the standards for optical measurements to be used in SeaWiFS calibration and validation activities (Mueller and Austin 1992). Over time, the Protocols were revised (Mueller and Austin 1995), and then recurringly updated on essentially an annual basis (Mueller 2000, 2002, and 2003) as part of the Sensor Inter-comparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) project. 98

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

Apparent dust size discrepancy in aerosol reanalysis in north African dust after long-range transport

North African dust reaches the southeastern United States every summer. Size-resolved dust mass measurements taken in Miami, Florida, indicate that more than one-half of the surface dust mass concentrations reside in particles with geometric diameters less than 2.1 µm, while vertical profiles of micropulse lidar depolarization ratios show dust reaching above 4 km during pronounced events. These observations are compared to the representation of dust in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis and closely related Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5 (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) aerosol product, both of which assimilate satellite-derived aerosol optical depths using a similar protocol and inputs. These capture the day-to-day variability in aerosol optical depth well, in a comparison to an independent sun-photometer-derived aerosol optical depth dataset. Most of the modeled dust mass resides in diameters between 2 and 6 µm, in contrast to the measurements. Model-specified mass extinction efficiencies equate light extinction with approximately 3 times as much aerosol mass, in this size range, compared to the measured dust sizes. GEOS-5 FP surface-layer sea salt mass concentrations greatly exceed observed values, despite realistic winds and relative humidities. In combination, these observations help explain why, despite realistic total aerosol optical depths, (1) free-tropospheric model volume extinction coefficients are lower than those retrieved from the micro-pulse lidar, suggesting too-low model dust loadings in the free troposphere, and (2) model dust mass concentrations near the surface can be higher than those measured. The modeled vertical distribution of dust, when captured, is reasonable. Large, aspherical particles exceeding the modeled dust sizes are also occasionally present, but dust particles with diameters exceeding 10 µm contribute little to the measured total dust mass concentrations after such long-range transport. Remaining uncertainties warrant a further integrated assessment to confirm this study's interpretations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Apparent dust size discrepancy in aerosol reanalysis in north African dust after long-range transport

North African dust reaches the southeastern United States every summer. Size-resolved dust mass measurements taken in Miami, Florida, indicate that more than one-half of the surface dust mass concentrations reside in particles with geometric diameters less than 2.1 µm, while vertical profiles of micropulse lidar depolarization ratios show dust reaching above 4 km during pronounced events. These observations are compared to the representation of dust in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis and closely related Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5 (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) aerosol product, both of which assimilate satellite-derived aerosol optical depths using a similar protocol and inputs. These capture the day-to-day variability in aerosol optical depth well, in a comparison to an independent sun-photometer-derived aerosol optical depth dataset. Most of the modeled dust mass resides in diameters between 2 and 6 µm, in contrast to the measurements. Model-specified mass extinction efficiencies equate light extinction with approximately 3 times as much aerosol mass, in this size range, compared to the measured dust sizes. GEOS-5 FP surface-layer sea salt mass concentrations greatly exceed observed values, despite realistic winds and relative humidities. In combination, these observations help explain why, despite realistic total aerosol optical depths, (1) free-tropospheric model volume extinction coefficients are lower than those retrieved from the micro-pulse lidar, suggesting too-low model dust loadings in the free troposphere, and (2) model dust mass concentrations near the surface can be higher than those measured. The modeled vertical distribution of dust, when captured, is reasonable. Large, aspherical particles exceeding the modeled dust sizes are also occasionally present, but dust particles with diameters exceeding 10 µm contribute little to the measured total dust mass concentrations after such long-range transport. Remaining uncertainties warrant a further integrated assessment to confirm this study's interpretations.

MEERA-2 aerosols reanalysis↗

Reticular Materials and AI-Driven Computer Simulations for Seawater Mining of Valuable Metals (Final Technical Report)

This Final Technical Report describes our exploratory efforts that combine reticular materials synthesis (hydrolytically robust metal–organic frameworks, MOFs) with AI‑enabled molecular simulations to develop mechanistic, quantitative design rules for recovering lithium and other alkali-metal ions from highly dilute, competitive aqueous resources (e.g., seawater). The central outcome is a joint experimental–computational study of ion uptake in MOF‑808 (Chemical Science, 2025) that quantifies both thermodynamics and kinetics of Li + , Na + , and K + uptake and identifies how pore size, pore hydration state, dehydration penalties, and pore-window transport barriers govern selectivity. Guided by these insights, we synthesized and tested functionalized MOF‑808 and multivariate MOFs incorporating ion-recognition motifs (including carboxylates and crown-ether linkers) and evaluated uptake in synthetic seawater, highlighting framework topology and pore chemistry as levers for improved Li + /Na + discrimination. We also developed transferable simulation models, enhanced-sampling protocols, and automated workflows that enable systematic screening of porous sorbents.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Computational Fermi Level Engineering and Doping-Type Conversion of Mg:Ga 2 O 3 via Three-Step Synthesis Process

Gallium oxide (Ga 2 O 3 ) is being actively explored for electronics that can operate at high power, temperature, and frequency as well as for deep-ultraviolet optoelectronics and other applications due to its ultra-wide bandgap (UWBG) and low projected fabrication cost of large-size and high-quality crystals. Efficient n-type doping of monoclinic beta-phase of Ga 2 O 3 has been achieved, but p-type doping faces fundamental obstacles due to compensation, deep acceptor levels, and the polaron transport mechanism of free holes. However, aside from the challenges of achieving p-type conductivity, plenty of opportunity exists to engineer the position of the Fermi level for improved design of Ga 2 O 3 -based devices. We use first-principles defect theory and defect equilibrium calculations to simulate a three-step growth-annealing-quench synthesis protocol for hydrogen-assisted Mg doping in ß-Ga 2 O 3 . The simulations take into account the gas phase equilibrium between H 2 , O 2 , and H 2 O, which determines the H chemical potential. We predict Ga 2 O 3 doping-type conversion to a net p-type regime after growth under reducing conditions in the presence of H2 followed by O-rich annealing, which is a similar process to Mg acceptor activation by H removal in GaN. For equilibrium annealing with re-equilibration of compensating O vacancies, there is an optimal temperature that maximizes the Ga 2 O 3 net acceptor density for a given Mg doping level; the acceptor density is further increased in the non-equilibrium annealing scenario without re-equilibration. After quenching to operating temperature, the Ga 2 O 3 Fermi level drops below mid-gap down to about 1.5 eV above the valence band maximum, creating a significant number of uncompensated neutral Mg Ga 0 acceptors. The resulting free hole concentration in Ga 2 O 3 is very low even at elevated operating temperature (~10 8 cm -3 at 400°C) due to the deep energy level of these Mg acceptors, and hole conductivity is further impeded by the polaron hopping mechanism. However, the Fermi-level reduction and suppression of free electron density in this doping-type converted (NA>ND) Ga 2 O 3 material are important for improved designs of Ga 2 O 3 electronic devices. These results illustrate the power of computational predictions not only for new materials but also for their synthesis science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Top-Down Strategy to Engineer ActiveLayer Morphology for Highly Efficient and Stable All-Polymer Solar Cells

A major challenge hindering the further development of all-polymer solar cells (all-PSCs) employing polymerized small-molecule acceptors is the relatively low fill factor (FF) due to the difficulty in controlling the active-layer morphology. The issues typically arise from oversized phase separation resulting from the thermodynamically unfavorable mixing between two macromolecular species, and disordered molecular orientation/packing of highly anisotropic polymer chains. Herein, a facile top-down controlling strategy to engineer the morphology of all-polymer blends is developed by leveraging the layer-by-layer (LBL) deposition. Optimal intermixing of polymer components can be achieved in the two-step process by tuning the bottom-layer polymer swelling during top-layer deposition. Consequently, both the molecular orientation/packing of the bottom layer and the molecular ordering of the top layer can be optimized with a suitable top-layer processing solvent. A favorable morphology with gradient vertical composition distribution for efficient charge transport and extraction is therefore realized, affording a high all-PSC efficiency of 17.0% with a FF of 76.1%. The derived devices also possess excellent long-term thermal stability and can retain >90% of their initial efficiencies after being annealed at 65 °C for 1300 h. In conclusion, these results validate the distinct advantages of employing an LBL processing protocol to fabricate high-performance all-PSCs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development of a tape transport bacterial detection system

The feasibility of a tape transport chemiluminescence system for bacterial monitoring of regenerated water was demonstrated using a manually operated laboratory breadboard. The principle of detection is based on measuring the increase in chemiluminescence produced by the catalytic action of bacterial porphyrins on a luminol-hydrogen peroxide mixture. Viable organisms are distinguished from nonviable by comparing the signals of incubated and unincubated water samples. Using optimized protocols, sensitivities were obtained with 400 ml suspensions of E. coli and Cl. sporogenes. The sensitivity of the unincubated cycle E. coli (aerobe) was found to be 30 to 35 cells/m1, and that of the Cl. sporogenes (anaerobe) was 1000 to 10,000 cells/m1. The lower sensitivity toward Cl. sporogenes is attributed to several factors, namely the lower cytochrome content, the tendency to sporulate, long lag periods and the lower growth rate of Clostridia in general. The operational procedures used for processing the incubated and unincubated samples involved the following sequence: (1) concentrating the sample by filtration through a membrane filter, (2) washing with Dextrose-Thioglycollate Broth (3) incubating (0 to 4 hrs as required), (4) washing with 4M Urea, and (5) reacting with reagent in front of a photomultiplier tube. The signal output was recorded on a strip chart recorder.

Witz, S.↗

21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗

Forecasting the Decay of Hybrid Perovskite Performance Using Optical Transmittance or Reflected Dark-Field Imaging

The practicality and economic viability of hybrid perovskite solar cells hinge on their operational lifetime, and methods for forecasting the performance of perovskites under different operational stresses are urgently needed. Here, we explore the evolution of material-level optoelectronic properties as MAPbI 3 degrades and discover universal behaviors where the carrier diffusion length (L D ) decays before quasi-Fermi-level splitting (ΔE F ), regardless of the specific stress protocol (oxygen, humidity, thermal stress, or a combination). We employ a machine learning greedy feature selection model that uses initially measured properties to predict the time it takes L D to decrease to 85% of its initial value with a prediction accuracy of 12.8%. This model reveals a strong correlation between the initial rate of transmittance change and the time until loss of transport. We translate this material-level finding to photovoltaic device-level forecasting by demonstrating that the rate of change of transmittance is equivalent to the rate of change of the spatial standard deviation of dark-field image intensity (i.e., scattered light intensity) collected in reflection mode (and thus applicable to devices with opaque contacts). Furthermore, this work demonstrates that transmittance and scattering methods are highly effective for accelerated material (and device) stability evaluation and forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗