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DOE OSTI2026

Polyketide synthase–like functionality acquired by plant fatty acid elongase

Fatty acid elongation typically proceeds through a four-step cycle of condensation, reduction, dehydration, and reduction for each two-carbon extension. Here, we describe a variation of this pathway in Orychophragmus limprichtianus, whose seed oil contains previously unknown C24-C28 keto-hydroxy fatty acids that account for ~25% of total fatty acids. These compounds are produced through an endoplasmic reticulum–localized discontinuous elongation process in which a 3-keto-hydroxy intermediate bypasses full reduction and is extended through a polyketide synthase–like mechanism. Transcriptomic and functional assays identified two divergent enzymes, a variant fatty acid elongase 1 (FAE1) and a low-activity 3-ketoacyl-CoA reductase (KCR1), as central to this process. Protein modeling and mutant analysis suggest that specific amino acid substitutions underlie altered KCR1 activity, enabling accumulation of keto intermediates. Our findings reveal unexpected flexibility in plant fatty acid elongation and provide innovative tools for engineering plants and microbes to produce renewable oils with tailored industrial functions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fission with Exotic Nuclei (Abbreviated Report)

Nuclear fission is a key mechanism involved in the synthesis of heavy elements in the Cosmos and is the primary explanation for the stability of superheavy elements. Nevertheless, our knowledge of fission remains extremely fragmented. Most experiments have been conducted only on a tiny number of stable actinide nuclei and are often incomplete, leading to gaps in our basic understanding of the process. For many radioactive isotopes, basic fission data such as the charge or mass distribution of the fragments is unknown. These gaps cannot always be filled by simulation alone. Common fission models contain too many free parameters and lack predictive power. In contrast, the fundamental theory of fission under development at LLNL is much more predictive, but its current computational cost is too high to be used extensively for data evaluations. A unique window of opportunity to resolve these limitations has recently opened: the U.S. nuclear science community is ramping up major experimental programs at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB, the DOE flagship facility in low-energy nuclear science), and techniques from machine learning have shown great potential to simplify the use of a fundamental, quantum-mechanical theory of fission. This project has two components. On the experimental side, we acquired and deployed at the HIGS facility a new dual Frisch-Grid ionization chamber to measure correlated fragment-mass, kinetic energy, and angular distributions of fission fragments from induced fission. This new device was used to perform measurements of charge, mass and total kinetic energy of fission fragments in the photofission of 238 U and eight gamma-ray beam energies between 6.2 and 13 MeV, which allowed extracting high-precision independent yields for this reaction. The device was also used to perform measurements of the same quantities in the neutron-induced fission of 234 U with monoenergetic beams of energy between 5 and 8 MeV. In parallel, we collaborated with a team at Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) to perform a series of measurements of fission yields in inverse kinematics for the two isotopes of 236 U and 240 Pu. The experiment took place at the Grand Accélérateur National d’Ions Lourds in France in June 2023. The deployment of the VAMOS spectrometer with a new array called PISTA allowed determining the excitation energy of the fissioning system within 1 Mega-electronvolts. The second component of the project involved using deep neural networks to build fast and reliable emulators of our current fission models. In an invited paper published in Frontier in Physics, we showed that autoencoders could successfully compress nuclear wavefunctions in nuclear density functional theory. We achieved a dimensionality reduction of the order of two orders of magnitude while keeping the error in the total energy to less than 0.01%. In a second paper submitted to Physical Review Letters in June 2023 with our collaborators at CEA, we showed that variational autoencoders can learn the collective degrees of freedom driving the fission process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-temporal and weather characterization of road loads of electrified heavy-duty commercial vehicles across U.S. interstate roads

Adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in heavy duty (HD) commercial freight transportation is difficult due to technological and economic hurdles. Beyond safety and compliance, fleet and operational logistics necessitate both high uptime and parity with diesel system productivity/Total Cost of Ownership to support widespread deployment of electric powertrains. However, relatively high energy storage costs, along with the higher weight of BEV systems, limit the viability of HD commercial freight transport to shorter-range applications where smaller batteries will serve for mission energy requirements (single operational shift). Knowing the energy consumption and operating variations of these commercial vehicle systems is crucial for effectively sizing the energy storage systems. This paper is the first in a series of studies to understand the regional specific operating design domain variations of commercial Class 8 HD trucks and the associated impact to their energy requirements. In particular, the local weather conditions are shown to influence the total vehicle energy usage. Further, the impact of temperature, pressure, and humidity changes are shown to impact the local air density. This is needed to calculate aerodynamic drag on vehicles and has been found to play a significant role in the overall performance of a vehicle. Although the methodology of calculating air density varies only slightly throughout the literature, the application to transportation has still been limited. This study provides a means by which air density can be estimated for the contiguous U.S. using the NOAA MADIS dataset. These air density estimates were then used to determine vehicle performance in varying regions of the country to highlight the importance of consideration of weather variables when monitoring vehicle performance, but also to provide recommendations based on these locales upon fleet conversion to BEVs.

Moore, Amy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Proteogenomic characterization of difficult-to-treat breast cancer with tumor cells enriched through laser microdissection

Abstract Background Breast cancer (BC) is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among women globally. Despite advances, there is considerable variation in clinical outcomes for patients with non-luminal A tumors, classified as difficult-to-treat breast cancers (DTBC). This study aims to delineate the proteogenomic landscape of DTBC tumors compared to luminal A (LumA) tumors. Methods We retrospectively collected a total of 117 untreated primary breast tumor specimens, focusing on DTBC subtypes. Breast tumors were processed by laser microdissection (LMD) to enrich tumor cells. DNA, RNA, and protein were simultaneously extracted from each tumor preparation, followed by whole genome sequencing, paired-end RNA sequencing, global proteomics and phosphoproteomics. Differential feature analysis, pathway analysis and survival analysis were performed to better understand DTBC and investigate biomarkers. Results We observed distinct variations in gene mutations, structural variations, and chromosomal alterations between DTBC and LumA breast tumors. DTBC tumors predominantly had more mutations inTP53,PLXNB3, Zinc finger genes, and fewer mutations inSDC2,CDH1,PIK3CA,SVIL, andPTEN. Notably, Cytoband 1q21, which contains numerous cell proliferation-related genes, was significantly amplified in the DTBC tumors. LMD successfully minimized stromal components and increased RNA–protein concordance, as evidenced by stromal score comparisons and proteomic analysis. Distinct DTBC and LumA-enriched clusters were observed by proteomic and phosphoproteomic clustering analysis, some with survival differences. Phosphoproteomics identified two distinct phosphoproteomic profiles for high relapse-risk and low relapse-risk basal-like tumors, involving several genes known to be associated with breast cancer oncogenesis and progression, includingKIAA1522,DCK,FOXO3,MYO9B,ARID1A,EPRS,ZC3HAV1, andRBM14. Lastly, an integrated pathway analysis of multi-omics data highlighted a robust enrichment of proliferation pathways in DTBC tumors. Conclusions This study provides an integrated proteogenomic characterization of DTBC vs LumA with tumor cells enriched through laser microdissection. We identified many common features of DTBC tumors and the phosphopeptides that could serve as potential biomarkers for high/low relapse-risk basal-like BC and possibly guide treatment selections.

Oncology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microgravity effects on nonequilibrium melt processing of neodymium titanate: thermophysical properties, atomic structure, glass formation and crystallization

The relationships between materials processing and structure can vary between terrestrial and reduced gravity environments. As one case study, we compare the nonequilibrium melt processing of a rare-earth titanate, nominally 83TiO 2 -17Nd 2 O 3 , and the structure of its glassy and crystalline products. Density and thermal expansion for the liquid, supercooled liquid, and glass are measured over 300–1850 °C using the Electrostatic Levitation Furnace (ELF) in microgravity, and two replicate density measurements were reproducible to within 0.4%. Cooling rates in ELF are 40–110 °C s -1 lower than those in a terrestrial aerodynamic levitator due to the absence of forced convection. X-ray/neutron total scattering and Raman spectroscopy indicate that glasses processed on Earth and in microgravity exhibit similar atomic structures, with only subtle differences that are consistent with compositional variations of ~2 mol. % Nd 2 O 3 . The glass atomic network contains a mixture of corner- and edge-sharing Ti-O polyhedra, and the fraction of edge-sharing arrangements decreases with increasing Nd 2 O 3 content. X-ray tomography and electron microscopy of crystalline products reveal substantial differences in microstructure, grain size, and crystalline phases, which arise from differences in the melt processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Divertor shaping with neutral baffling as a solution to the tokamak power exhaust challenge

Exhausting power from the hot fusion core to the plasma-facing components is one fusion energy’s biggest challenges. The MAST Upgrade tokamak uniquely integrates strong containment of neutrals within the exhaust area (divertor) with extreme divertor shaping capability. By systematically altering the divertor shape, this study shows the strongest evidence to date to our knowledge that long-legged divertors with a high magnetic field gradient (total flux expansion) deliver key power exhaust benefits without adversely impacting the hot fusion core. These benefits are already achieved with relatively modest geometry adjustments that are more feasible to integrate in reactor designs. Benefits include reduced target heat loads and improved access to, and stability of, a neutral gas buffer that ‘shields’ the target and enhances power exhaust (detachment). Analysis and model comparisons shows these benefits are obtained by combining multiple shaping aspects: long-legged divertors have expanded plasma-neutral interaction volume that drive reductions in particle and power loads, while total flux expansion enhances detachment access and stability. Containing the neutrals in the exhaust area with physical structures further augments these shaping benefits. These results demonstrate strategic variation in the divertor geometry and magnetic topology is a potential solution to one of fusion’s power exhaust challenge.

magnetically confined plasmas↗

DOE OSTI2026

Three-nucleon lepton-number-violating potentials in chiral effective field theory and their matrix elements in light nuclei

Here, we derive the three-nucleon neutrinoless double-𝛽 decay potential in a Δ-full chiral effective field theory through next-to-next-to-next-to leading order in Weinberg's power counting. The matrix elements of the resulting operators are computed in light nuclei using variational Monte Carlo with wave functions constructed from the Norfolk family of nuclear interactions. We find that three-nucleon corrections induce a modest quenching of the total nuclear matrix elements. We discuss model dependencies and the potential impact of these corrections on the sensitivity of experimental programs to probe lepton number violating parameters. These results provide a benchmark for many-body methods capable of reaching heavier nuclei of experimental interest.

Chambers-Wall, Graham [Washington University, St. ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microstructural Characterization of the Second High Fluence Baffle-Former Bolt Retrieved from a Westinghouse Two-loop Downflow Type PWR

As one of the pressurized water reactor (PWR) internal components, baffle-former bolts (BFBs) are subjected to significant mechanical stress and neutron irradiation from the reactor core during the plant operation. Over the long operation period, these conditions lead to potential degradation and reduced load-carrying capacity of the bolts. In support of evaluating long-term operational performance of materials used in core internal components, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), through the Department of Energy (DOE), Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Materials Research Pathway (MRP) has harvested two high fluence BFBs from a commercial Westinghouse two-loop downflow type PWR. The two bolts of interest, i.e. bolts # 4412 and 4416, were withdrawn from service in 2011 as part of a preventative replacement plan. No identification of cracking or potential damage was found for these bolts during their removal in 2011. However, the bolts required a lower torque for removal from the baffle structure than the original torque specified during installation. Irradiation displacement damage levels in the bolts range from 15 to 41 displacements per atom. The goal of this project is to perform detailed microstructural and mechanical property characterization of BFBs following in-service exposures. The information from these bolts will be integral to the LWRS program initiatives in evaluating end of life microstructure and properties. Furthermore, valuable data will be obtained that can be incorporated into model predictions of long-term irradiation behavior and compared to results obtained in high flux experimental reactor conditions. In this report, we present our latest study in FY22 on microstructural characterizations of the second high fluence baffle-former bolt, i.e., bolt # 4412. Analytical electron microscopy and atom probe tomography characterization were performed. The radiation-induced defects in the material add to the large wealth of knowledge for neutron-induced defects in 304/316 grades of stainless steels, specifically for radiation-induced precipitation after high fluence commercial PWR irradiation. The main findings are summarized as follows: 1) The cavity size was considerably larger in the bolt thread section than in the bolt head, with the bolt thread section having a bimodal distribution of cavities greater than ~6 nm in diameter and less than ~3 nm in diameter. The bolt head only had the small-sized cavities. In addition, there was a denuded zone of large cavities near grain boundaries in the thread section of the bolt. 2) Radiation-induced precipitation in the BFB #4412 was highly complex, with the volume fraction, size, and number density of Ni/Si and Cu-rich precipitates depending strongly on the radiation temperature/dose. In many cases, co-precipitates of adjoined clusters were found with Ni/Si-rich precipitates sandwiched between Cu-rich clusters and Mo/Cr/P-rich clusters. 3) Solute segregation out of solution was highest for most solutes in the thread section of the bolt #4412 with the exception of Cu, which experienced more separation out of solution into Curich clusters in the bolt head section. This highlights the difference in the mechanisms for precipitation of Ni/Si clusters, which have the Ni 3 Si phase composition, and precipitation of Cu-rich clusters. 4) There appear to be multiple simultaneous influences that affect the microstructural variation along the length of the bolt that overcomes the ~2X difference in irradiation dose between the bolt head and the bolt thread. The irradiation temperature, thermal/fast neutron ratio variation, potential strain gradient, and exposure to PWR coolant water that each section of the bolt sees may have more influence on the microstructural evolution than the total irradiation dose. The bolt thread and shank, with higher temperature, higher relative fast neutron flux, higher strain, and exposure to coolant but lower dose, underwent more enhanced cavity formation, precipitation, and solute segregation than the bolt head section.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is related to extreme rainfall: results from 5 years of monthly drone data for a 50 ha plot

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effect of local structure and stoichiometry on the dynamic behavior of bi-metal interfaces

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are performed to investigate the failure behavior of Al/Al, Al/Fe, and Al/AlFe bi-layers under high strain-rate shock loading. Additional simulations are performed to invesigate solely the tensile response of these systems and to isolate the effects of loading history on damage and failure. Specifically, the compression stage of the shock is excluded from the tensile simulations. This study shows that local structure variation, including the introduction of serrations, plays different roles in controlling damage nucleation depending on the specific loading condition. Under shock loading, the stress for void nucleation and the resulting void distribution is insensitive to an interface structure, whereas under pure tensile loading, the opposite is true, even though the strain rate is comparable. The above difference can be explained based on the corresponding change in the total deformation prior to damage nucleation under shock loading, which is missing from the pure tensile loading. Therefore, it is concluded that whether local interface structure matters under high strain-rate loading depends on the specific loading history and the stress state: the local structure variation matters only when it alters the deformation behavior, and subsequently, damage nucleation and evolution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatial Microbial Respiration Variations in the Hyporheic Zones Within the Columbia River Basin

Abstract While the hyporheic zone (HZ) accounts for a significant portion of whole stream CO 2 concentrations, HZ respiration modeling studies are lacking in quantifying their contributions to the total CO 2 at large watershed/basin scales. Quantifying the contribution of anaerobic respiration is also underappreciated. This study used a carbon‐nitrogen‐coupled river corridor model to quantify HZ aerobic and anaerobic respiration and determined the key factors controlling their spatial variability within the Columbia River Basin (CRB). The modeled respiration patterns showed high spatial variability. Among the nine sub‐basins composing the CRB, the Lower Columbia and the Willamette, which receive higher precipitation, had higher respiration. Medium‐sized rivers (fourth to sixth orders) produced the highest aerobic and anaerobic respiration among reaches of different sizes. At the basin scale, aerobic respiration is dominant, representing approximately 98.7% of the total respiration across the CRB. While most of the reaches were dominant with aerobic respiration, reaches in agricultural land showed a relatively higher anaerobic respiration (18%) ratio. A variable importance analysis showed that hyporheic exchange flux controlled most of the spatial variability of HZ respiration, dominating over other physical variables such as residence time, stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrate, and dissolved oxygen (DO). The influence of substrate concentration (DOC and DO) is larger in modeling anaerobic respiration than aerobic respiration. Future efforts will focus on improving the estimation of the HZ exchange flux and the implementation of spatially explicit parameterizations for the reactions of interest to reduce model uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigation into Sizing Photovoltaic with Energy Storage for Off-Grid Transactive Scenarios

In this study, a novel sizing methodology was developed for centralized and interconnected operating strategies of transactive microgrids and several variables were investigated including starting month, initial charge of battery, load variability, unit cost of solar panels and energy storage, number of systems, climate, and required reliability to determine their effect on total cost. The centralized strategy improved cost by seven to ten percent compared to the isolated strategy in every case. The interconnected strategy saved an incremental amount of money consistently compared to the isolated standard. The number of connected systems was not a strong effect. It was thought that increasing the number of systems would increase the benefit of energy sharing. Climate zones studied (“Cold”; “Hot-Dry/Mixed Dry”; “Mixed Humid”; and “Cold but with lower solar irradiation”) showed a large variation on cost with the Hot-Dry/Mixed Dry being the least expensive and Cold, with lower solar irradiation being the most expensive. Cost sensitivity analysis was performed showing that the unit cost of solar has a greater effect on the total cost. Required reliability of power, measured in outage hours, exhibited an inverse relation with cost.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of fuel film formation and soot emissions in a GDI engine during cold-start with Split-injection strategies

This study investigates the impact of fuel-film formation on engine-out soot emissions in a gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine under cold-start conditions. Split-injection strategies were applied by varying the number of injections, injection duration, and total fuel quantity to affect wall wetting and control the average in-cylinder equivalence ratio. A combined experimental and numerical approach was employed to analyze fuel-film deposition, combustion efficiency, and engine-out soot and unburnt hydrocarbons (UHC) emissions. In particular, fuel film distribution estimated by means of non-reacting, 3-D, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, together with experimentally measured soot data, were used to investigate fuel film formation and its role in soot generation. In the experiments, a skip-fired engine control strategy was applied to mimic the transient nature of engine cold-start operation. The results indicate that, under the same total number of injections, increasing the average in-cylinder equivalence ratio through longer injection durations improves combustion stability, as indicated by the decrease of the coefficient of variation of IMEP n (Net Indicated Mean Effective Pressure) from 6.0 % to 0.6 %. However, this strategy leads to higher soot emissions, which increased by nearly an order of magnitude, primarily due to enhanced wall-film formation. In contrast, increasing the number of injections while maintaining a constant equivalence ratio significantly impacts fuel-film deposition and, consequently, soot emissions, with a fivefold reduction of the measured engine-out soot, decreasing from 3.5 mg to 0.7 mg. A soot-film correlation was developed and achieved a high coefficient of determination (r 2 = 0.95) and was further extended to account for spark timing effects. These findings confirm the effectiveness of split-injection for avoiding wall film formation and soot emissions, and the critical role of fuel film in soot generation, supporting the hypothesis that pool fires play a crucial role in contributing to soot formation under these cold-start conditions. In conclusion, the study also indicates the value of a predictive soot-film correlation for developing cold-start emission control strategies.

Engine Cold-start↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing the D-region ionosphere globally with Earth Networks Total Lightning Network data

An existing technique to use broadband lightning waveforms to probe the D-region ionosphere (60–90 km altitude) is shown to be extendable to a global scale using the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN). This paper demonstrates the technique in detail on a region of the Southeastern United States. This demonstration shows that diurnal D-region height variation and smaller time-scale variations on the order of tens of minutes to hours are evident in the measurement. The technique is then extended to three additional global regions on this same day: Northeastern U.S., India, and Japan. The diurnal behavior between these different regions is compared to a D-region model from the International Reference Ionosphere.

D-region ionosphere↗

DOE OSTI2021

Disruption thermal load mitigation with shattered pellet injection on the Joint European Torus (JET)

Disruption mitigation remains a critical, unresolved challenge for ITER. To aid in addressing this challenge, a shattered pellet injection (SPI) system was installed on JET and experiments conducted at a range of thermal energy fractions and stored energies in excess of 7 MJ. The primary goals of these experiments were to investigate the efficacy of the SPI on JET and the ability of the plasma to assimilate multiple pellets. Single pellet injections produced a saturation in total radiated energy (Wrad) with increasing injected neon content, suggesting total radiation of stored thermal energy. Further increases in injected neon quantities resulted in reduced cooling times and current quench (CQ) durations, indicating higher impurity assimilation. No significant variation in CQ duration or W rad was observed when varying the deuterium content at fixed neon quantities. Additionally, higher assimilation, inferred by shorter CQ durations, was measured when a mechanical punch was used to launch the pellets and this was attributed to a lower pellet velocity leading to higher solid content in the pellet plume and larger fragments penetrating deeper into the plasma. Radiation asymmetries averaged over the cooling time were inferred from Emis3D and ranged from 1.6 to 1.9. Asymmetries averaged over the entire disruption sequence were found to increase at higher thermal energy fractions. The radiated energy fractions decreased with increasing thermal energy fractions but this trend was eliminated when toroidal asymmetries were accounted for with Emis3D. Pure deuterium pellets were able to produce cooling times of up to 75 ms with a gradual loss in thermal stored energy of up to 80%. Experiments with multiple pellet injection indicated W rad can be increased through pellet superposition and density can be increased with an additional D2 injection without a reduction in W rad . KPRAD modelling accurately reproduced the cooling times and the CQ duration at high thermal energies. Assimilation estimates from KPRAD indicated CQ rates scale strongly whilst W rad scales weakly and saturates with assimilated neon content. Comparable W rad can be achieved with lower assimilated neon quantities as longer cooling times are attained. Thus reduced neon content can be preferential in a thermal load mitigation scheme as it may reduce radiation asymmetries and prevent flash melting.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Continental United States may lose 1.8 petagrams of soil organic carbon under climate change by 2100

Abstract Aims High‐resolution information on soils’ vulnerability to climate‐induced soil organic carbon (SOC) loss can enable environmental scientists, land managers, and policy makers to develop targeted mitigation strategies. This study aims to estimate baseline and decadal changes in continental US surface SOC stocks under future emission scenarios. Location Continental United States. Time period 2014–2100. Methods We used recent SOC field observations ( n = 6,213 sites), environmental factors ( n = 32), and an ensemble machine learning (ML) approach to estimate baseline SOC stocks in surface soils across the continental United States at 100‐m spatial resolution, and decadal changes under the projected climate scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) earth system models (ESMs). Results Baseline SOC projections from ML approaches captured more than 50% of variability in SOC observations, whereas ESMs represented only 6–16% of observed SOC variability. ML estimates showed a mean total loss of 1.8 Pg C from US surface soils under the high‐emission scenario by 2100, whereas ESMs showed no significant change in SOC stocks with wide variation among ESMs. Both ML and ESM predictions agree on the direction of SOC change (net emissions or sequestration) across 46–51% of continental US land area. These differences are attributable to the high‐resolution site‐specific data used in the ML models compared to the relatively coarse grid represented in CMIP6 ESMs. Main conclusions Our high‐resolution estimates of baseline SOC stocks, identification of key environmental controllers, and projection of SOC changes from US land cover types under future climate scenarios suggest the need for high‐resolution simulations of SOC in ESMs to represent the heterogeneity of SOC. We found that the SOC change is sensitive to key soil related factors (e.g. soil drainage and soil order) that have not been historically considered as input parameters in ESMs, because currently more than 95% variability in the SOC of CMIP6 ESMs is controlled by net primary productivity, temperature, and precipitation. Using additional environmental factors to estimate the baseline SOC stocks and predict the future trajectory of SOC change can provide more accurate results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Downscaling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

Environmental sciences↗