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DOE OSTI2023

Biases to primordial non-Gaussianity measurements from CMB secondary anisotropies

ABSTRACT Our view of the last-scattering surface in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) is obscured by secondary anisotropies, sourced by scattering, extragalactic emission, and gravitational processes between recombination and observation. Whilst it is established that non-Gaussianity from the correlation between the integrated-Sachs–Wolfe (ISW) effect and gravitational lensing can significantly bias primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) searches, recent work by Hill suggests that other combinations of secondary anisotropies can also produce significant biases. Building on that work, we use the WebSky and Sehgal et al. simulations to perform an extensive examination of possible biases to PNG measurements for the local, equilateral and orthogonal shapes. For a Planck-like CMB experiment, without foreground cleaning, we find significant biases from cosmic infrared background (CIB)-lensing and thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (tSZ)-lensing bispectra for the local and orthogonal templates, and from CIB and tSZ bispectra for the equilateral template. For future experiments, such as the Simons Observatory, biases from correlations between the ISW effect and the tSZ and CIB will also become important. Finally, we investigate the effectiveness of foreground-cleaning techniques to suppress these biases. We find that the majority of these biases are effectively suppressed by the internal-linear combination method with a total bias below the $1\, \sigma$ statistical error for both experiments. However, the small total bias arises from the cancellation of several $1\, \sigma$ biases for Planck-like experiments and $2\, \sigma$ biases for SO-like. As this cancellation is likely sensitive to the modelling, to ensure robustness against these biases, we recommend that explicit removal methods should be used.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Masses of Sunyaev-Zel’dovich galaxy clusters detected by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Stacked lensing measurements with Subaru HSC year 3 data

We present a stacked lensing analysis of 96 galaxy clusters selected by the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect in maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We select foreground galaxy clusters with a 5 σ -level SZ threshold in CMB observations from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, while we define background source galaxies for the lensing analysis with secure photometric redshift cuts in Year 3 data of the Subaru Hyper Suprime Cam survey. We detect the stacked lensing signal in the range of 0.1 < R [ h - 1 Mpc ] < 100 in each of three cluster redshift bins, 0.092 < z ≤ 0.445 , 0.445 < z ≤ 0.695 , and 0.695 < z ≤ 1.180 , with 32 galaxy clusters in each bin. The cumulative signal-to-noise ratios of the lensing signal are 14.6, 12.0, and 6.6, respectively. Using a halo-based forward model, we then constrain statistical relationships between the mass inferred from the SZ observation (i.e. SZ mass) and the total mass derived from our stacked lensing measurements. At the average SZ mass in the cluster sample ( 2.1 - 2.4 × 10 14 h - 1 M ⊙ ), our likelihood analysis shows that the average total mass differs from the SZ counterpart by a factor of 1.3 ± 0.2 , 1.6 ± 0.2 , and 1.6 ± 0.3 (68%) in the aforementioned redshift ranges, respectively. Our limits are consistent with previous lensing measurements, and we find that the cluster modeling choices can introduce a 1 σ -level difference in our parameter inferences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The persistent shadow of the supermassive black hole of M87. II. Model comparisons and theoretical interpretations

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observation of M87∗ in 2018 has revealed a ring with a diameter that is consistent with the 2017 observation. The brightest part of the ring is shifted to the southwest from the southeast. In this paper, we provide theoretical interpretations for the multi-epoch EHT observations for M87∗ by comparing a new general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics model image library with the EHT observations for M87∗ in both 2017 and 2018. The model images include aligned and tilted accretion with parameterized thermal and nonthermal synchrotron emission properties. The 2018 observation again shows that the spin vector of the M87∗ supermassive black hole is pointed away from Earth. A shift of the brightest part of the ring during the multi-epoch observations can naturally be explained by the turbulent nature of black hole accretion, which is supported by the fact that the more turbulent retrograde models can explain the multi-epoch observations better than the prograde models. The EHT data are inconsistent with the tilted models in our model image library. Assuming that the black hole spin axis and its large-scale jet direction are roughly aligned, we expect the brightest part of the ring to be most commonly observed 90 deg clockwise from the forward jet. This prediction can be statistically tested through future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nearly hyperuniform, nonhyperuniform, and antihyperuniform density fluctuations in two-dimensional transition metal dichalcogenides with defects

Hyperuniform many-body systems in d-dimensional Euclidean space R d are characterized by completely suppressed (normalized) infinite-wavelength density fluctuations, and appear to be endowed with novel exotic physical properties. Recently, hyperuniform systems of disordered varieties have been observed in the context of various atomic-scale two-dimensional (2D) materials. Here, we analyze the effects of localized defects on the density fluctuations across length scales and on the hyperuniformity property of experimental samples of two-dimensional transition metal dichalcogenides. In particular, we extract atomic coordinates from time series annular dark field-scanning transmission electron microscopy (ADF-STEM) imaging data of 2D tungsten chalcogenides with the 2H structure (Te-doped 2H-WSe 2 ) showing continuous development and evolution of electron-beam induced defects, and construct the corresponding chemical-bonding informed coordination networks between the atoms. We then compute a variety of pair statistics and bond-orientational statistics to characterize the samples. At low defect concentrations, the corresponding materials are nearly hyperuniform, characterized by significantly suppressed scattering at the zero wave-number limit (omitting forward/ballistic scattering). As more defects are introduced, the (approximate) hyperuniformity of the materials is gradually destroyed, and the system becomes non-hyperuniform even when the material still contains a significant amount of crystalline regions. At high defect concentrations, the structures become antihyperuniform with diverging (normalized) large-scale density fluctuations, mimicking those typically observed at the thermal critical points associated with phase transitions. Overall, the defected materials possess varying degrees of orientation order, and there is apparently no intermediate hexatic phase emerging. To understand the observed nearly hyperuniform density fluctuations in the slightly defected materials, we construct a minimalist structural model and demonstrate that the experimental samples can be essentially viewed as perturbed honeycomb crystals with small correlated displacements and double chalcogen vacancies. Moreover, the small correlated displacements alone can significantly degrade hyperuniformity of the perfect honeycomb structure. Therefore, even a small amount of vacancies, when coupled with correlated displacements, can completely destroy hyperuniformity of the system.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fluid and gyrokinetic turbulence in open field-line, helical plasmas

Two-fluid Braginskii codes have simulated open-field line turbulence for over a decade, and only recently, it has become possible to study these systems with continuum gyrokinetic codes. This work presents a first-of-its-kind comparison between fluid and (long-wavelength) gyrokinetic models in open field-lines, using the GDB and Gkeyll codes to simulate interchange turbulence in the Helimak device at the University of Texas [T. N. Bernard et al., Phys. Plasmas 26, 042301 (2019)]. Partial agreement is attained in a number of diagnostic channels when the GDB sources and sheath boundary conditions (BCs) are selected carefully, especially the heat-flux BCs that can drastically alter the temperature. The radial profile of the fluctuation levels is qualitatively similar and quantitatively comparable on the low-field side, although statistics such as moments of the probability density function and the high-frequency spectrum show greater differences. This comparison indicates areas for future improvement in both simulations, such as sheath BCs, and improvements in GDB like particle conservation and spatially varying thermal conductivity, in order to achieve better fluid-gyrokinetic agreement and increase fidelity when simulating experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Raptor

Raptor is an efficient Python-based tool for predicting the formation and morphology of stochastic lack of fusion defects in metal AM processes. A major obstacle for the qualification and certification of additively manufactured parts in critical applications continues to be performance variability caused in part by porosity-related defects. High-fidelity process models that could predict these defect features are currently too computationally expensive for component-level analysis. To address this, Raptor employs a high-performance geometric method to model the dynamic melt pool rather than relying on computationally intensive thermal fluid dynamics. This allows Raptor to rapidly identify regions of unmelted material that correspond to lack of fusion pores. The efficiency of this approach significantly reduces the time and resources needed for generating 3D defect predictions, which enables users to conduct large-scale parameter studies and evaluate how process variations affect part quality. The framework offers operational flexibility; users can execute simulations through a simple command line interface or integrate core functions as a library within larger computational workflows. Simulation outputs include 3D porosity maps for visualization and tools for quantitative morphological analysis. These results are suitable for direct comparison with experimental characterization data from methods such as X-ray computed tomography and can be used for statistical process optimization.

Subraveti, Vamsi [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the Metabolic Costs of Heavy Military Backpacking

Existing predictive equations underestimate the metabolic costs of heavy military load carriage. Metabolic costs are specific to each type of military equipment, and backpack loads often impose the most sustained burden on the dismounted warfighter. This study aimed to develop and validate an equation for estimating metabolic rates during heavy backpacking for the US Army Load Carriage Decision Aid (LCDA), an integrated software mission planning tool. Thirty healthy, active military-age adults (3 women, 27 men; age, 25 ± 7 yr; height, 1.74 ± 0.07 m; body mass, 77 ± 15 kg) walked for 6–21 min while carrying backpacks loaded up to 66% body mass at speeds between 0.45 and 1.97 m·s -1 . A new predictive model, the LCDA backpacking equation, was developed on metabolic rate data calculated from indirect calorimetry. Model estimation performance was evaluated internally by k-fold cross-validation and externally against seven historical reference data sets. We tested if the 90% confidence interval of the mean paired difference was within equivalence limits equal to 10% of the measured metabolic rate. Estimation accuracy and level of agreement were also evaluated by the bias and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), respectively. Estimates from the LCDA backpacking equation were statistically equivalent ( P < 0.01) to metabolic rates measured in the current study (bias, -0.01 ± 0.62 W·kg -1 ; CCC, 0.965) and from the seven independent data sets (bias, -0.08 ± 0.59 W·kg -1 ; CCC, 0.926). The newly derived LCDA backpacking equation provides close estimates of steady-state metabolic energy expenditure during heavy load carriage. These advances enable further optimization of thermal-work strain monitoring, sports nutrition, and hydration strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Photon–photon chemical thermodynamics of frequency conversion processes in highly multimode systems

Abstract Frequency generation in highly multimode nonlinear optical systems is inherently a complex process, giving rise to an exceedingly convoluted landscape of evolution dynamics. While predicting and controlling the global conversion efficiencies in such nonlinear environments has long been considered impossible, here, we formally address this challenge even in scenarios involving a very large number of spatial modes. By utilizing fundamental notions from optical statistical mechanics, we develop a universal theoretical framework that effectively treats all frequency components as chemical reactants/products, capable of undergoing optical thermodynamic reactions facilitated by a variety of multi-wave mixing effects. These photon–photon reactions are governed by conservation laws that directly determine the optical temperatures and chemical potentials of the ensued chemical equilibria for each frequency species. In this context, we develop a comprehensive stoichiometric model and formally derive an expression that relates the chemical potentials to the optical stoichiometric coefficients, in a manner akin to atomic/molecular chemical reactions. This advancement unlocks new predictive capabilities that can facilitate the optimization of frequency generation in highly multimode photonic arrangements, surpassing the limitations of conventional schemes that rely exclusively on nonlinear optical dynamics. Notably, we identify a universal regime of Rayleigh–Jeans thermalization where an optical reaction at near-zero optical temperatures can promote the complete and entropically irreversible conversion of light to the fundamental mode at a target frequency. Our theoretical results are corroborated by numerical simulations in settings where second-harmonic generation, sum-frequency generation and four-wave mixing processes can manifest.

Optics↗

DOE OSTI2025

X-ray thermal diffuse scattering as a texture-robust temperature diagnostic for dynamically compressed solids

We present a model of x-ray thermal diffuse scattering (TDS) from a cubic polycrystal with an arbitrary crystallographic texture, based on the classic approach of Warren [B. E. Warren, Acta Crystallogr. 6, 803 (1953)]. We compare the predictions of our model with femtosecond x-ray diffraction patterns gathered from ambient and dynamically compressed rolled copper foils obtained at the High Energy Density instrument of the European X-Ray Free-Electron Laser facility and find that the texture-aware TDS model yields more accurate results than does the conventional powder model owed to Warren. Nevertheless, we further show: with sufficient angular detector coverage, the TDS signal is largely unchanged by sample orientation and in all cases strongly resembles the signal from a perfectly random powder; shot-to-shot fluctuations in the TDS signal resulting from grain-sampling statistics are at the percent level, in stark contrast to the fluctuations in the Bragg-peak intensities (which are over an order of magnitude greater); and TDS is largely unchanged even following texture evolution caused by compression-induced plastic deformation. We conclude that TDS is robust against texture variation, making it a flexible temperature diagnostic applicable just as well to off-the-shelf commercial foils as to ideal powders.

Crystal lattices↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulating cosmological evolution by quantum quench of an atomic Bose-Einstein condensate

In cosmological evolution, it is the homogeneous scalar field (inflaton) that drives the universe to expand isotropically and to generate standard model particles. However, to simulate cosmology, atomic gas research has focused on the dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates (BEC) with continuously applied forces. In this paper we argue that a complementary approach needs also to be pursued; we thus consider the analog BEC experiments in a nondriven and naturally closed atomic system. We implement this using a BEC in an optical lattice which, after a quench, freely transitions from an unstable to a stable state. Furthermore, this dynamical evolution displays the counterpart “preheating,” “reheating,” and “thermalization” phases of cosmology. Importantly, our studies of these analog processes yield tractable analytic models. Additionally, of great utility to the cold atom community, such understanding elucidates the dynamics of nonadiabatic condensate preparation. Indeed, the dynamical processes discussed here are generic and in future cold atom reequilibration experiments it will be important to observe both the preheating stage, corresponding to a fragmented condensate, and the reheating stage, corresponding to a particle cloud.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lattice QCD estimates of thermal photon production from the QGP

Thermal photons produced in heavy-ion collision experiments are an important observable for understanding quark-gluon plasma (QGP). The thermal photon rate from the QGP at a given temperature can be calculated from the spectral function of the vector current correlator. Extraction of the spectral function from the lattice correlator is known to be an ill-conditioned problem, as there is no unique solution for a spectral function for a given lattice correlator with statistical errors. The vector current correlator, on the other hand, receives a large ultraviolet contribution from the vacuum, which makes the extraction of the thermal photon rate difficult from this channel. We therefore consider the difference between the transverse and longitudinal part of the spectral function, only capturing the thermal contribution to the current correlator, simplifying the reconstruction significantly. The lattice correlator is calculated for light quarks in quenched QCD at T = 470 MeV ( ∼ 1.5 T c ), as well as in 2 + 1 flavor QCD at T = 220 MeV ( ∼ 1.2 T p c ) with m π = 320 MeV . In order to quantify the nonperturbative effects, the lattice correlator is compared with the corresponding NLO + LPM LO estimate of correlator. The reconstruction of the spectral function is performed in several different frameworks, ranging from physics-informed models of the spectral function to more general models in the Backus-Gilbert method and Gaussian process regression. We find that the resulting photon rates agree within errors. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Air separation and N 2 purification with Ba 0.15 Sr 0.85 FeO 3-$δ$ via a two-step thermochemical process

Thermochemical air separation to produce high-purity N 2 was demonstrated in a vertical tube reactor via a two-step reduction–oxidation cycle with an A-site substituted perovskite Ba 0.15 Sr 0.85 FeO 3–δ (BSF1585). BSF1585 particles were synthesized and characterized in terms of their chemical, morphological, and thermophysical properties. A thermodynamic cycle model and sensitivity analysis using computational heat and mass transfer models of the reactor were used to select the system operating parameters for a concentrating solar thermal-driven process. Thermal reduction up to 800 °C in air and temperature-swing air separation from 800 °C to minimum temperatures between 400 and 600 °C were performed in the reactor containing a 35 g packed bed of BSF1585. The reactor was characterized for dispersion, and air separation was characterized via mass spectrometry. Gas measurements indicated that the reactor produced N 2 with O 2 impurity concentrations as low as 0.02 % for > 30 min of operation. Additionally, a parametric study of air flow rates suggested that differences in observed and thermodynamically predicted O 2 impurities were due to imperfect gas transport in the bed. Temperature swing reduction/oxidation cycling experiments between 800 and 400 °C in air were conducted with no statistically significant degradation in N 2 purity over 50 cycles.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design and Construction of a High-Resolution Hodoscope for the GlueX Experiment with High-Statistics Analysis of the p0, ¿, and ¿1 Photoproduction Cross Sections from the RadPhi Experiment

Differential cross sections for forward-angle photoproduction of p0, ¿, and ¿ 1 pseudoscalar mesons were measured using data from the RadPhi experiment conducted in Hall B at Jef ferson Lab. RadPhi utilized a tagged bremsstrahlung photon beam incident on a stationary 9Be target, with a detector system configured to trigger on a recoil proton in coincidence with multiple neutral showers in the calorimeter. Events were reconstructed and subjected to kinematic constraints, with background suppressed via sideband subtraction guided by Monte Carlo modeling of background contributions. Cross sections were extracted over the photon energy range 4.4– 5.4 GeV and binned in invariant momentum transfer t, providing measurements from one of the first high-statistics experiments of forward ¿ and ¿1 pro duction from a nuclear target at these energies. Acceptance corrections were applied using a detailed GEANT-based simulation of the detector geometry and response. The resulting cross sections are consistent with 2020 CLAS results, when scaled by the number of protons in beryllium, and show broad agreement with other data and theoretical models. In parallel, a high-resolution photon tagger detector, the Tagger Microscope (TAGM), was designed, constructed, and commissioned for the GlueX experiment in Hall D at Jefferson Lab. The TAGM was developed to provide high-rate tagging capability in the coherent bremsstrahlung peak by detecting post-bremsstrahlung electrons across a one GeV range along the focal plane of the tagging spectrometer. The detector consists of a 5ˆ102 array of 2ˆ2 mm2 square BCF-20 plastic scintillating fibers thermally fused to BCF-98 light guide fibers optically coupled to silicon photomultipliers. These fibers are mounted in a precision machined framework enabling fine positional adjustments to maintain precise alignment with post-bremsstrahlung electron trajectories, while ensuring mechanical rigidity, thermal stability, optical isolation, minimal inactive area, and radiation shielding for electronics. The construction effort involved extensive testing of fiber quality, light transmission, thermal fusing, radiation hardness, and defect analysis using SEM and EDX techniques. Following its installation and commissioning, the TAGM became a critical component of the GlueX beamline, enabling high-rate tagging essential for studies of hybrid mesons and gluonic ex citations.

McIntyre, James [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of non-thermal termolecular reactions on wedge-induced oblique detonation waves

The shock-induced combustion ramjet (Shcramjet) based on oblique detonation waves (ODWs) is among the promising choices for hypersonic propulsion systems. An understanding of the ignition, propagation, and stability of ODWs is critical to harnessing their propulsive potential. In such high speed reacting flows, there is a high probability of occurrence of non-thermal reactions due to the presence of non-trivial amounts of highly reactive radicals including H, O and OH apart from O 2 as demonstrated recently [M. P. Burke, S. J. Klippenstein, Nat. Chem. 9 (2017) 1078–1082, Y. Tao, A. W. Jasper, Y. Georgievskii, S. J. Klippenstein, R. Sivaramakrishnan, Proc. Combust. Inst. 38 (2021) 515–522]. The present work focuses on examining the initiation, propagation and structure of oblique detonation waves in stoichiometric H 2 -air mixtures through numerical simulations with and without non-thermal reactivity on a two-dimensional adaptive grid. Non-thermal reactions were included in the macroscopic kinetic model as chemically termolecular reactions facilitated by the H + OH radical-radical recombination and the H + O 2 radical-molecule association reactions. Since, the non-thermal reactions result in a corresponding decrease in the reaction fluxes of the incipient recombination/association reactions, an additional simulation was performed by applying corrections to the respective incipient recombination/association rate constants using the methodology demonstrated by Tao et al. [Y. Tao, A. W. Jasper, Y. Georgievskii, S. J. Klippenstein, R. Sivaramakrishnan, Proc. Combust. Inst. 38 (2021) 515–522]. Results show that, under ODWE relevant conditions, non-thermal reactivity fundamentally alters the induction length, intensity as well as the structure of the ODW. Specifically, it is found that non-thermal reactivity leads to a noticeable reduction in initiation length and a simultaneous increase in instantaneous peak heat release rate and the degree of unsteadiness of the ODW. Finally, statistical analysis of key thermo-chemical variables is performed to elucidate the important species as well as reactions responsible for the observed variations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

DefectTrack: a deep learning-based multi-object tracking algorithm for quantitative defect analysis of in-situ TEM videos in real-time

Abstract In-situ irradiation transmission electron microscopy (TEM) offers unique insights into the millisecond-timescale post-cascade process, such as the lifetime and thermal stability of defect clusters, vital to the mechanistic understanding of irradiation damage in nuclear materials. Converting in-situ irradiation TEM video data into meaningful information on defect cluster dynamic properties (e.g., lifetime) has become the major technical bottleneck. Here, we present a solution called the DefectTrack , the first dedicated deep learning-based one-shot multi-object tracking (MOT) model capable of tracking cascade-induced defect clusters in in-situ TEM videos in real-time. DefectTrack has achieved a Multi-Object Tracking Accuracy (MOTA) of 66.43% and a Mostly Tracked (MT) of 67.81% on the test set, which are comparable to state-of-the-art MOT algorithms. We discuss the MOT framework, model selection, training, and evaluation strategies for in-situ TEM applications. Further, we compare the DefectTrack with four human experts in quantifying defect cluster lifetime distributions using statistical tests and discuss the relationship between the material science domain metrics and MOT metrics. Our statistical evaluations on the defect lifetime distribution suggest that the DefectTrack outperforms human experts in accuracy and speed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

The 2025 Evaluation of Experimental Thermonuclear Reaction Rates (ETR25)

This work describes the formalism for estimating thermonuclear reaction rates for astrophysical applications, emphasizing modern statistical approaches such as Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian models. We discuss related topics including the calculation of resonance energies from nuclear Q values, indirect estimates of particle partial widths, and matching of reaction rates at elevated temperatures to statistical model results. We have evaluated available experimental data on cross sections, resonance energies and strengths, partial widths, lifetimes, spin-parities, and spectroscopic factors. Based on these results, we have estimated numerical values of 78 experimental charged-particle thermonuclear reaction rates for target nuclei in the A = 2–40 mass region, for temperatures ranging from 1 MK to 10 GK. For each reaction, three rate values are provided: low, median, and high, corresponding to the 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles, respectively, of the cumulative reaction rate probability density distribution. Additionally, we present the factor uncertainty of each rate at each temperature grid point. These results enable users to sample the reaction rate probability density in nucleosynthesis calculations, facilitating uncertainty estimates of nuclidic abundances. The rates presented here refer to their laboratory values. For use in stellar model simulations, these values need to be corrected for the effects of thermal excitations of the interacting nuclei. For each reaction, we include graphs that illustrate the fractional contributions to the overall reaction rate along with the associated uncertainty. These visuals are designed to assist both stellar modelers and nuclear experimentalists by identifying the primary sources of rate uncertain=^texttx);ty at specific stellar temperatures. A graphical comparison with earlier Monte Carlo rates is also provided.

Nuclear astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Planning Management Actions to Restore Cold Water Stream Habitat: Comparing Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling Approaches

ABSTRACT Under the United States Clean Water Act, states are required to periodically assess state waters to determine compliance with water quality criteria (including temperature) and then to develop total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for impaired waters as necessary to bring them into compliance. We compared the performance of mechanistic stream temperature models (HeatSource, QUAL2K, and QUAL2Kw) applied to the mainstem of three TMDL watersheds (Middle Fork John Day, OR; Wind River, WA; South Fork Nooksack, WA) with that of spatial stream network (SSN) models applied to the full watersheds and used these to evaluate the potential effectiveness of restoration strategies. SSN models performed well with slightly lesser accuracy (RMSE = 0.47–0.87) for mainstem predictions than mechanistic models (RMSE = 0.4) but provided additional benefits to inform management, including information on spatial and temporal heterogeneity of restoration effectiveness throughout the watershed. Of the four scenarios considered (restoration of riparian zones to potential natural vegetation, channel narrowing, increasing flow by restricting irrigation withdrawals, and combined applications), riparian zone restoration was consistently the most effective in reducing temperatures at the outlet, mainstem, and throughout the watersheds. Predicted restoration effectiveness for thermal regimes varied significantly both within and among watersheds. A focus on water quality criteria exceedance only at the watershed outlet or along the mainstem reach can obscure knowledge of restoration potential for fish habitat in tributaries and headwaters, potential for creation of thermal refuge areas along the mainstem critical for maintaining migration corridors, and thermal regime heterogeneity across space and time.

Fuller, M. R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Superclustering with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and Dark Energy Survey. II. Anisotropic Large-scale Coherence in Hot Gas, Galaxies, and Dark Matter

Statistics that capture the directional dependence of the baryon distribution in the cosmic web enable unique tests of cosmology and astrophysical feedback. We use constrained oriented stacking of thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (tSZ) maps to measure the anisotropic distribution of hot gas 2.5–40 Mpc away from galaxy clusters embedded in massive filaments and superclusters. The cluster selection and orientation (at a scale of ∼15 Mpc) use Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data, while expanded tSZ maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 enable a ∼3× more significant measurement of the extended gas compared to the technique’s proof-of-concept. Decomposing stacks into cosine multipoles of order m , we detect a dipole ( m = 1) and quadrupole ( m = 2) at 8σ–10σ, as well as evidence for m = 4 signal at up to 6σ, indicating sensitivity to late-time non-Gaussianity. We compare to Cardinal simulations with spherical gas models pasted onto dark matter halos. The fiducial tSZ data can discriminate between two models that deplete pressure differently in low-mass halos (mimicking astrophysical feedback), preferring higher average pressure in extended structures. However, uncertainty in the amount of cosmic infrared background contamination reduces the constraining power. Additionally, we apply the technique to DES galaxy density and weak lensing to study for the first time their oriented relationships with tSZ. In the tSZ-to-lensing relation, averaged on 7.5 Mpc (transverse) scales, we observe dependence on redshift but not shape or radial distance. Thus, on large scales, the superclustering of gas pressure, galaxies, and total matter is coherent in shape and extent.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗