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At least 253 records · Page 14

Leveraging Extremal Dependence to Better Characterize the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract In late June, 2021, a devastating heatwave affected the US Pacific Northwest and western Canada, breaking numerous all-time temperature records by large margins and directly causing hundreds of fatalities. The observed 2021 daily maximum temperature across much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest exceeded upper bound estimates obtained from single-station temperature records even after accounting for anthropogenic climate change, meaning that the event could not have been predicted under standard univariate extreme value analysis assumptions. In this work, we utilize a flexible spatial extremes model that considers all stations across the Pacific Northwest domain and accounts for the fact that many stations simultaneously experience extreme temperatures. Our analysis incorporates the effects of anthropogenic forcing and natural climate variability in order to better characterize time-varying changes in the distribution of daily temperature extremes. We show that greenhouse gas forcing, drought conditions and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability all have significant impact on summertime maximum temperatures in this region. Our model represents a significant improvement over corresponding single-station analysis, and our posterior medians of the upper bounds are able to anticipate more than 96% of the observed 2021 high station temperatures after properly accounting for extremal dependence. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Zhang, Likun (ORCID:0000000154584556)↗

Thermomechanical response of thickly tamped targets and diamond anvil cells under pulsed hard x-ray irradiation

In the laboratory study of extreme conditions of temperature and density, the exposure of matter to high intensity radiation sources has been of central importance. Here, we interrogate the performance of multi-layered targets in experiments involving high intensity, hard x-ray irradiation, motivated by the advent of extremely high brightness hard x-ray sources, such as free electron lasers and 4th-generation synchrotron facilities. Intense hard x-ray beams can deliver significant energy in targets having thick x-ray transparent layers (tampers) around samples of interest for the study of novel states of matter and materials’ dynamics. Heated-state lifetimes in such targets can approach the microsecond level, regardless of radiation pulse duration, enabling the exploration of conditions of local thermal and thermodynamic equilibrium at extreme temperature in solid density matter. The thermal and mechanical responses of such thick layered targets following x-ray heating, including hydrodynamic relaxation and heat flow on picosecond to millisecond timescales, are modeled using radiation hydrocode simulation, finite element analysis, and thermodynamic calculations. Assessing the potential for target survival over one or more exposures and resistance to damage arising from heating and resulting mechanical stresses, this study doubles as an investigation into the performance of diamond anvil high pressure cells under high x-ray fluences. Long used in conjunction with synchrotron x-ray radiation and high power optical lasers, the strong confinement afforded by such cells suggests novel applications at emerging high intensity x-ray facilities and new routes to studying thermodynamic equilibrium states of warm, very dense matter.

Meza-Galvez, J. (ORCID:000000032699849X)↗

Shifts in Evapotranspiration Components During Heatwaves Alter Surface Cooling

Heatwave events significantly alter ecosystem water and energy balance and are often accompanied by extreme surface temperatures. Understanding how surface temperatures during such events are regulated by soil evaporation (E) and vegetation transpiration (T) remains limited due to challenges in partitioning total evapotranspiration (ET). Here, high-frequency turbulence methods are used to partition observed ET at 32 National Ecological Observatory Network sites across the contiguous United States. Heatwaves were defined as at least three consecutive days with daily maximum air temperature exceeding the site-specific 90th percentile of the 2019–2021 record. Across 268 identified events, the T/ET ratio decreased by 32% ± 16% relative to the non-heatwave baseline of 0.65, with greater reductions at lower biomass sites. The T/ET ratio was typically suppressed below non-heatwave conditions during the early and middle stages of the heatwave (first two-thirds of event duration), but was on average higher than non-heatwave baseline levels during late stages (final third) due to extremely low soil evaporation. Of the studied heatwaves, 71% of these had surface temperatures above 38°C in their late stage; however, heatwaves sustaining higher evaporation fluxes (upper tertile of observed fluxes) during the late stage were associated with relative surface temperature anomalies that were on average 45% lower than those of heatwaves with lower evaporation fluxes (lower tertile). The commensurate surface cooling induced by higher transpiration was only 2% during heatwaves, suggesting that transpiration has a limited ability to mitigate extreme surface temperatures. This study allows for improved prediction of ecosystem feedbacks under extreme thermal stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tailoring sub-3.3 Å ultramicropores in advanced carbon molecular sieve membranes for blue hydrogen production

Carbon molecular sieve (CMS) membranes prepared by carbonization of polymers containing strongly size-sieving ultramicropores are attractive for high-temperature gas separations. However, polymers need to be carbonized at extremely high temperatures (900° to 1200°C) to achieve sub-3.3 Å ultramicroporous channels for H 2 /CO 2 separation, which makes them brittle and impractical for industrial applications. Here, we demonstrate that polymers can be first doped with thermolabile cross-linkers before low-temperature carbonization to retain the polymer processability and achieve superior H 2 /CO 2 separation properties. Specifically, polybenzimidazole (PBI) is cross-linked with pyrophosphoric acid (PPA) via H bonding and proton transfer before carbonization at ≤600°C. The synergistic PPA doping and subsequent carbonization of PBI increase H 2 permeability from 27 to 140 Barrer and H 2 /CO 2 selectivity from 15 to 58 at 150°C, superior to state-of-the-art polymeric materials and surpassing Robeson’s upper bound. This study provides a facile and effective way to tailor subnanopore size and porosity in CMS membranes with desirable molecular sieving ability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-Entropy Borides under Extreme Environment of Pressures and Temperatures

The high-entropy transition metal borides containing a random distribution of five or more constituent metallic elements offer novel opportunities in designing materials that show crystalline phase stability, high strength, and thermal oxidation resistance under extreme conditions. We present a comprehensive theoretical and experimental investigation of prototypical high-entropy boride (HEB) materials such as (Hf, Mo, Nb, Ta, Ti)B2 and (Hf, Mo, Nb, Ta, Zr)B2 under extreme environments of pressures and temperatures. The theoretical tools include modeling elastic properties by special quasi-random structures that predict a bulk modulus of 288 GPa and a shear modulus of 215 GPa at ambient conditions. HEB samples were synthesized under high pressures and high temperatures and studied to 9.5 GPa and 2273 K in a large-volume pressure cell. The thermal equation of state measurement yielded a bulk modulus of 276 GPa, in excellent agreement with theory. The measured compressive yield strength by radial X-ray diffraction technique in a diamond anvil cell was 28 GPa at a pressure of 65 GPa, which is a significant fraction of the shear modulus at high pressures. The high compressive strength and phase stability of this material under high pressures and high temperatures make it an ideal candidate for application as a structural material in nuclear and aerospace fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling electron temperature profiles in the pedestal with simple formulas for ETG transport

Abstract This paper reports on the refinement (building on (Hatch D.R. et al 2022 Phys. Plasmas 29 062501)) and application of simple formulas for electron heat transport from electron temperature gradient (ETG) driven turbulence in the pedestal. The formulas are improved by (1) improving the parameterization for certain key parameters and (2) carefully accounting for the impact of geometry and shaping in the underlying gyrokinetic simulation database. Comparisons with nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations of ETG transport in the MAST pedestal demonstrate the model’s applicability to spherical tokamaks in addition to standard aspect ratio tokamaks. We identify bounds for model applicability: the model is accurate in the steep gradient region, where the ETG turbulence is largely slab-like, but accuracy decreases as the temperature gradient becomes weaker in the pedestal top. We use the formula to model the electron temperature profile in the pedestal for four experimental scenarios while extensively varying input parameters to represent uncertainties. In all cases, the predicted electron temperature profile exhibits extreme sensitivity to separatrix temperature and density, which has implications for core-edge integration. The model reproduces the electron temperature profile for high η e = L n e / L T e scenarios but not for low η e scenarios in which microtearing modes (MTMs) have been identified. We develop a proof-of-concept model for MTM transport and explore the relative roles of ETG and MTM in setting the electron temperature profile.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Wyandotte Integrated Renewable Energy Strategy (WIRES 2) (Final Technical Report)

Wyandotte Municipal Services (WMS), a Michigan Municipal Utility offering electric generation, transmission & distribution, water filtration & distribution and Broadband/Video sought to deploy a set of renewable energy projects for their Electric Utility that contributed to reducing the City’s environmental and energy impact, provided examples that would encourage businesses and citizens to adopt cleaner energy practices and help WMS meet the required renewable energy standards of the State of Michigan (10% in 2015, 15% in 2021). WMS generates and delivers roughly 280,000 megawatt hours (MWh) of electricity annually to more than 10,000 homes and 1,000 businesses within the City of Wyandotte. The Wyandotte Integrated Renewable Energy Strategy – WIRES 2 resulted in deployment of a set of community-scale micro-wind turbines, evaluation and installation of energy-efficient and low-maintenance light-emitting diode (LED) street lights and park lights in highly visible locations in the City and expansion of the geothermal heating and cooling district that already included residential geothermal systems, to include larger scale business/institutional systems at the Utility’s largest electric customer and at the City Library. Finally, WMS identified the need for job training in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to further develop a local skilled workforce in these areas. Partially funded by the grant, the wind turbine project provides a benchmark for WMS, local businesses and residents in the evaluation of utility-scale wind v. micro-wind in an urban environment as a renewable energy strategy. Also partially funded by the grant, the LED project benefited the City of Wyandotte by reducing load on the electric system for the public utility but also reduced City costs for streetlighting, parking lot lighting and park lighting without a compromise in security. The project also resulted in a visual success that has led to additional approvals for non-Grant related LED lighting installations resulting in further reduction in the electric load in the City. Commercial Geothermal installations resulted in the Utility being able to eliminate steam customers who formerly utilized the byproduct of steam from WMS electric production. Due to the reduction in natural gas prices and the overall reduction in market purchased power, it was no longer feasible for WMS to operate its Power Plant as a base load plant and to only operate on a market dispatch philosophy when market prices dictated that WMS could produce electricity cheaper than the market purchase price. This has resulted in fewer operating days for the WMS Power Plant, resulting in less environmental impact. WMS has now completely exited the steam business and the ability to offer a geothermal option to two (2) former steam customers (BASF-Wyandotte and the Bacon Memorial Library) allowed for that. In addition, peak loads have been shaved for these two (2) large customers due to the consistent temperature offered by geothermal heating and cooling, reducing the swings associated with thermostat changes caused by outside temperature changes during extreme high and low temperatures. Finally, energy efficiency and renewable energy college-level classes at Wayne County Community College allowed a group of interested students to pursue studies in those technologies through grant provided tuition, books and course materials. This effort provided a foundation of potential future employees not only for WMS but other energy efficiency/renewable energy employers such as Franklin Energy, a partner with WMS in energy optimization efforts with Wyandotte businesses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Fractionation of Lignin for Selective Shape Memory Effects at Elevated Temperatures

We report a facile approach to control the shape memory effects and thermomechanical characteristics of a lignin-based multiphase polymer. Solvent fractionation of a syringylpropane-rich technical organosolv lignin resulted in selective lignin structures having excellent thermal stability coupled with high stiffness and melt-flow resistance. The fractionated lignins were reacted with rubber in melt-phase to form partially networked elastomer enabling selective programmability of the material shape either at 70 °C, a temperature that is high enough for rubbery matrix materials, or at an extremely high temperature, 150 °C. Utilizing appropriate functionalities in fractionated lignins, tunable shape fixity with high strain and stress recovery, particularly high-stress tolerance were maintained. Detailed studies of lignin structures and chemistries were correlated to molecular rigidity, morphology, and stress relaxation, as well as shape memory effects of the materials. The fractionation of lignin enabled enrichment of specific lignin properties for efficient shape memory effects that broaden the materials’ application window. Electron microscopy, melt-rheology, dynamic mechanical analysis and ultra-small angle neutron scattering were conducted to establish morphology of acrylonitrile butadiene rubber (NBR)-lignin elastomers from solvent fractionated lignins.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hexagonal Boron Nitride Reinforced Multifunctional Well Cement for Extreme Conditions

The overarching objective of this project was to provide a system approach for developing the next generation of well cementing with remarkable multifunctional, high performance characteristics including mechanical, thermal, rheological and durability properties to prevent offshore spill and leakage at extreme high temperature, high pressure (HTHP) and corrosive conditions. Building on our scientifically illustrated principles, the objective of Phase I was to develop and tune our current proof-of-concept hexagonal boron-nitride (hBN)/cement composite to offer the best hybrid nanostructure, and optimum slurry formulation and rheological properties in environments with a variety of extreme conditions including high temperature, high pressure, and high acidity. This phase also focused on testing the actual barrier efficiency and performance of our new cement formulation against gas/liquid leakage at HT, and/or corrosive conditions. The objective of Phase 2 was product validation (meeting API/EPA standards), cost/risk analysis, and scale-up to facilitate integration for primary well cementing with no/minimal modification.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska

The purpose of this report is to determine the effects that extreme cold temperatures have on electric vehicles (EVs) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). The adoption of EVs in extreme cold weather presents challenges that require careful analysis of efficiency and charging infrastructure. This report, "Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska," explores how EVs and EVSE perform in temperatures as low as -40 degrees C (-40 degrees F), focusing on real-world data from Teslas in Alaskan winter conditions. The findings indicate that EVs can successfully function in extreme cold, though efficiency is significantly affected. Vehicles stored in heated environments outperformed those stored outdoors, with efficiency dropping by up to 69% for outdoor storage. Despite these challenges, none of the vehicles experienced failures that prevented travel. Storing EVs indoors led to benefits such as faster preconditioning and improved efficiency, while charging in extreme cold, though slower, remained functional. Ultimately, the report concludes that with proper precautions and best practices, EVs are viable transportation solutions in cold climates. Investing in enclosed, heated storage is recommended to maximize efficiency and minimize battery strain. As advancements in battery chemistry and thermal management progress, EV adoption in extreme climates is expected to become even more feasible.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The Press and Pulse of Climate Change: Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

Extremes in temperature and precipitation are associated with damaging floods, prolonged drought, destructive wildfires, agricultural challenges, compromised human health, vulnerable infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems and species. Often, the steady and progressive trends (or presses) of rising global temperature are the central focus in how climate impacts are described. However, observations of extreme weather events (or pulses) increasingly show that the intensity, duration and/or frequency of acute events are also changing, resulting in greater impacts on communities and the environment. Describing how the influence of extreme events may shape water management in the Colorado River Basin in clear terms is critical to sound future planning and efforts to manage risk. Three scenario planning workshops in 2019 and 2020 were held as part of a Colorado River Conversations series, identifying potential impacts from multiple intersecting extreme events. Water managers identified climate-related events of concern in the Colorado River Basin that necessitate greater attention and adaptive responses. To support efforts to include consideration of climate-change-driven extremes in water management and planning, we explore the current state of knowledge at the confluence of long-term climate shifts and extreme weather in the Colorado River Basin related to the events of concern that were identified by scenario planning participants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance of Convection-Permitting and Convection-Parameterized Models in Reproducing the Extreme Precipitation Intensity Relationship with Surface Conditions

Here, this study investigates the warm-season extreme precipitation–temperature scaling relationship in CONUS404, a convection-permitting (4 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation over the conterminous United States for the past four decades, and compares it with the WRF-Thermodynamic Global Warming (WRF-TGW) historical simulation at a coarser resolution (12 km) using parameterized convection. We also analyze the NCEP stage IV and NASA Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) datasets as observational benchmarks. We examine how extreme precipitation intensity (EPI) varies with temperature and saturation deficit over representative regions based on hourly data. The stage IV and IMERG data show a similar pattern of EPI variation with temperature and saturation deficit, except that the EPI peak is lower in IMERG than in stage IV. Under dry and hot conditions, EPI decreases too rapidly with elevated saturation deficit in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW compared to observations, but the performance of CONUS404 is superior to WRF-TGW. When the near-surface atmosphere is saturated or close to saturated, both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW produce higher peak values of EPI relative to the observational references; IMERG exhibits scaling rates close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship, while CONUS404, WRF-TGW, and stage IV all demonstrate super-C–C scaling behaviors. Despite marked warming over the past four decades, in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW, the scaling relationship between EPI and temperature in a saturated atmosphere remains stable and robust. This indicates a strong potential for the EPI–temperature scaling rate under saturation to be used as an emergent constraint in reducing uncertainties of future extreme precipitation projection.

Atmosphere↗

Thermal extremes in regulated river systems under climate change: an application to the southeastern U.S. rivers

High river temperatures, or “thermal extremes”, can cause fish mortality and thermoelectric powerplant derating. Under climate change, projected higher air temperature and stronger surface energy fluxes will lead to increased water temperatures, exacerbating thermal extremes. However, cold hypolimnetic releases from thermally stratified reservoirs can depress tailwater temperatures and therefore alleviate thermal extremes. Thermal extremes are more harmful when they coincide with low flows, which we refer to as “hydrologic hot-dry events”. To assess multisectoral impacts of climate change over large regions, we evaluate thermal events according to three impact attributes: duration (D), intensity (I), and severity (S). We apply an established model framework to simulate streamflow and stream temperature over the southeastern US regulated river system. We quantify climate change impacts (by the 2080s under RCP8.5) by comparing historical and future periods and quantify regulation impacts by comparing unregulated and regulated scenarios. We find that climate change will exacerbate thermal extremes (all three metrics) in both unregulated and regulated scenarios, albeit less in the regulated scenario. Thermal mitigation from reservoir regulation will be stronger under climate change, decreasing the three metrics compared to the unregulated case. Even so, thermal extremes in the regulated scenario will still be more severe under climate change, and only 12.2%, 19.7%, and 26.0% of D, I, and S can be mitigated by reservoirs. Despite stronger reservoir stratification, the number of regulated river segments that experience simultaneous high temperature and low flow events (hydrologic hot-dry events) will increase by 21.4% by the 2080s under RCP8.5. These events will have a median annual duration of 10.3 days/year, over 10 times the historical value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low-Temperature Annealing of Nanoscale Defects in Polycrystalline Graphite

Polycrystalline graphite contains multi-scale defects, which are difficult to anneal thermally because of the extremely high temperatures involved in the manufacturing process. In this study, we demonstrate annealing of nuclear graphite NBG-18 at temperatures below 28 °C, exploiting the electron wind force, a non-thermal stimulus. High current density pulses were passed through the specimens with a very low-duty cycle so that the electron momentum could mobilize the defects without heating the specimen. The effectiveness of this technique is presented with a significant decrease in electrical resistivity, defect counts from X-ray computed tomography, Raman spectroscopy, and nanoindentation-based mechanical characterization. Such multi-modal evidence highlights the feasibility of nanoscale defect control at temperatures about two orders of magnitude below the graphitization temperature.

Liu, Gongyuan↗

Physiological Responses of C4 Perennial Bioenergy Grasses to Climate Change: Causes, Consequences, and Constraints

C 4 perennial bioenergy grasses are an economically and ecologically important group whose responses to climate change will be important to the future bioeconomy. These grasses are highly productive and frequently possess large geographic ranges and broad environmental tolerances, which may contribute to the evolution of ecotypes that differ in physiological acclimation capacity and the evolution of distinct functional strategies. C 4 perennial bioenergy grasses are predicted to thrive under climate change—C 4 photosynthesis likely evolved to enhance photosynthetic efficiency under stressful conditions of low [CO 2 ], high temperature, and drought—although few studies have examined how these species will respond to combined stresses or to extremes of temperature and precipitation. Important targets for C 4 perennial bioenergy production in a changing world, such as sustainability and resilience, can benefit from combining knowledge of C 4 physiology with recent advances in crop improvement, especially genomic selection.

Plant Sciences↗

Is land use producing robust signals in future projections from Earth system models, all else being equal?

Abstract We use six Earth system models (ESMs) run under SSP3-7.0, a scenario characterized by a relatively large land use change (LUC) over the 21st century, and under a variant of the same scenario where a significantly different pattern of LUC, taken from SSP1-2.6, was used, all else being equal. Our goal is to identify changes in climate extremes between the two scenarios that are statistically significant and robust across the ESMs. The motivation for this study is to test a long-held assumption of the shared socio-economic pathway-representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenario framework: that the signal from LUC can be safely disregarded when pairing different SSPs to the compatible RCPs, where compatibility only considers global radiative forcing, predominantly determined by well-mixed greenhouse gasses emissions. We analyze extremes of daily minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation, after fitting non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in a way that borrows strength along the length of the simulation (2015–2100) and across initial condition ensembles. We consider changes in the 20 year return levels (RL20s) of these metrics by 2100, and focus on eight locations where LUC is large within each scenario, and strongly differs between scenarios, averaging the RL20s over a neighborhood characterized by the same LUC to enhance the signal to noise. We find that precipitation extremes do not show significant differences attributable to LUC differences. For temperature extremes (cold and hot) results are mixed, with some location-index combination showing significant results for some of the ESMs but not all, and not many coherent changes appearing for indices across regions, or regions across indices. These ESMs are representative of what is typically adopted as the source of climate information for impact studies, when the SSP-RCP framework is put to use. Overall, our analysis suggests that the hypothesis to pair SSPs to RCPs in a flexible fashion is overall defensible. However, the appearance of some coherence in a few locations and for some indices invites further investigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum coherent energy transport in the Fenna–Matthews–Olson complex at low temperature

In the primary step of natural light harvesting, the solar photon energy is captured in a photoexcited electron–hole pair, or an exciton, in chlorophyll. Its conversion to chemical potential occurs in the special pair reaction center, which is reached by downhill ultrafast excited-state energy transport through a network of chromophores. Being inherently quantum, transport could in principle occur via a matter wave, with vast implications for efficiency. How long a matter wave remains coherent is determined by the intensity by which the exciton is disturbed by the noisy biological environment. The stronger this is, the stronger the electronic coupling between chromophores must be to overcome the fluctuations and phase shifts. The current consensus is that under physiological conditions, quantum coherence vanishes on the 10-fs time scale, rendering it irrelevant for the observed picosecond transfer. Yet, at low-enough temperature, quantum coherence should in principle be present. Here, we reveal the onset of longer-lived electronic coherence at extremely low temperatures of ∼20 K. Using two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy, we determine the exciton coherence times in the Fenna–Matthew–Olson complex over an extensive temperature range. At 20 K, coherence persists out to 200 fs (close to the antenna) and marginally up to 500 fs at the reaction center. It decays markedly faster with modest increases in temperature to become irrelevant above 150 K. At low temperature, the fragile electronic coherence can be separated from the robust vibrational coherence, using a rigorous theoretical analysis. We believe that by this generic principle, light harvesting becomes robust against otherwise fragile quantum effects.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗