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At least 253 records · Page 14

A FIRST LOOK AT CREATING MOCK CATALOGS WITH MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUES

We investigate machine learning (ML) techniques for predicting the number of galaxies (N{sub gal}) that occupy a halo, given the halo's properties. These types of mappings are crucial for constructing the mock galaxy catalogs necessary for analyses of large-scale structure. The ML techniques proposed here distinguish themselves from traditional halo occupation distribution (HOD) modeling as they do not assume a prescribed relationship between halo properties and N{sub gal}. In addition, our ML approaches are only dependent on parent halo properties (like HOD methods), which are advantageous over subhalo-based approaches as identifying subhalos correctly is difficult. We test two algorithms: support vector machines (SVM) and k-nearest-neighbor (kNN) regression. We take galaxies and halos from the Millennium simulation and predict N{sub gal} by training our algorithms on the following six halo properties: number of particles, M{sub 200}, {sigma}{sub v}, v{sub max}, half-mass radius, and spin. For Millennium, our predicted N{sub gal} values have a mean-squared error (MSE) of {approx}0.16 for both SVM and kNN. Our predictions match the overall distribution of halos reasonably well and the galaxy correlation function at large scales to {approx}5%-10%. In addition, we demonstrate a feature selection algorithm to isolate the halo parameters that are most predictive, a useful technique for understanding the mapping between halo properties and N{sub gal}. Lastly, we investigate these ML-based approaches in making mock catalogs for different galaxy subpopulations (e.g., blue, red, high M{sub star}, low M{sub star}). Given its non-parametric nature as well as its powerful predictive and feature selection capabilities, ML offers an interesting alternative for creating mock catalogs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predicting and Preventing Failures [Slides]

Unpredicted bearings failures can be costly and dangerous. Current methods of detecting bearing faults rely on trained specialists with expensive detection equipment. Specialists must react daily, as the sheer number of bearings and the machines they operate are critical and any downtime will result in loss of productivity and endanger personal. My method utilizes machine learning algorithms coupled with relatively inexpensive accelerometers to remotely monitor data for specialists for fault detection, and estimate the diameter of the fault that has been caused by the bearing. The algorithm offers high accuracy detection using solely accelerometer data that can be obtained remotely, reducing the strain on analysists and ensuring that equipment is always running at an optimal and safe level. The algorithms operate in two layers, one layer detects the type of fault, and the second estimates the diameter of wear to determine the severity of the fault. The detection layer operates in the frequency space using a high accuracy Support Vector Machine algorithm and is trained on different types and sizes of machines to ensure generalization. The second layer uses a modified k-means clustering algorithm and vector calculus to estimate the bearing wear.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Using artificial intelligence to detect human errors in nuclear power plants: A case in operation and maintenance

Human error (HE) is an important concern in safety-critical systems such as nuclear power plants (NPPs). HE has played a role in many accidents and outage incidents in NPPs. Despite the increased automation in NPPs, HE remains unavoidable. Hence, the need for HE detection is as important as HE prevention efforts. In NPPs, HE is rather rare. Hence, anomaly detection, a widely used machine learning technique for detecting rare anomalous instances, can be repurposed to detect potential HE. In this study, we develop an unsupervised anomaly detection technique based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) to detect anomalies in manually collected surveillance data in NPPs. More specifically, our GAN is trained to detect mismatches between automatically recorded sensor data and manually collected surveillance data, and hence, identify anomalous instances that can be attributed to HE. We test our GAN on both a real-world dataset and an external dataset obtained from a testbed, and we benchmark our results against state-of-the-art unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms, including one-class support vector machine and isolation forest. Our results show that the proposed GAN provides improved anomaly detection performance. Our study is promising for the future development of artificial intelligence based HE detection systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Machine-Learning Classification Suggests That Many Alphaproteobacterial Prophages May Instead Be Gene Transfer Agents

Abstract Many of the sequenced bacterial and archaeal genomes encode regions of viral provenance. Yet, not all of these regions encode bona fide viruses. Gene transfer agents (GTAs) are thought to be former viruses that are now maintained in genomes of some bacteria and archaea and are hypothesized to enable exchange of DNA within bacterial populations. In Alphaproteobacteria, genes homologous to the “head–tail” gene cluster that encodes structural components of the Rhodobacter capsulatus GTA (RcGTA) are found in many taxa, even if they are only distantly related to Rhodobacter capsulatus. Yet, in most genomes available in GenBank RcGTA-like genes have annotations of typical viral proteins, and therefore are not easily distinguished from their viral homologs without additional analyses. Here, we report a “support vector machine” classifier that quickly and accurately distinguishes RcGTA-like genes from their viral homologs by capturing the differences in the amino acid composition of the encoded proteins. Our open-source classifier is implemented in Python and can be used to scan homologs of the RcGTA genes in newly sequenced genomes. The classifier can also be trained to identify other types of GTAs, or even to detect other elements of viral ancestry. Using the classifier trained on a manually curated set of homologous viruses and GTAs, we detected RcGTA-like “head–tail” gene clusters in 57.5% of the 1,423 examined alphaproteobacterial genomes. We also demonstrated that more than half of the in silico prophage predictions are instead likely to be GTAs, suggesting that in many alphaproteobacterial genomes the RcGTA-like elements remain unrecognized.

Evolutionary Biology↗

Multiscale Based Characterization and Classification of Urban Land-Use

Machine learning and deep learning provide a means for generating urban land-use maps with relatively little human effort compared to manually digitizing images. This is especially important for supporting global and regional initiatives focused on sustainability, planning, health, pro-poor policy, infrastructure, and population distribution estimates. Many of these initiatives work in areas where geospatial data is scarce, such as the global south, and often use land-use maps to help achieve their goals. In this study, we develop a typology for automated labeling of urban land-use data that captures the variation in structural patterns within cities. A comparison of classification accuracy between convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and support vector machines (SVMs) coupled with handcrafted features is conducted. Through experimental validation on two highly dense cities in Africa, we report on new insights and the potential benefits offered by both multiscale handcrafted features and multiscale-CNNs even with limited training data.

Arndt, Jacob↗

SU-E-I-30: Image Analysis in Ultrasonography for Diagnosis of Sjoegren's Syndrome Using Dual-Tree Complex Wavelet Transform

Purpose: Sjoegren's syndrome (SS) is an autoimmune disease invading mainly salivary and lacrimal glands. Ultrasonography is used for an initial and non-invasive examination of this disease. However, the ultrasonography diagnosis tends to lack in objectivity and depends on the operator's skills. The purpose of this study is to propose a computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) system for SS based on a dual-tree complex wavelet transform (DT-CWT) and machine learning. Methods: The subjects of this study were 174 patients suspected of having SS at Nagasaki University Hospital and examined with ultrasonography of the parotid glands. Out of these patients, 77 patients were diagnosed with SS by sialography. A region of interest (ROI) of 128 × 128 pixels was set within the parotid gland that was indicated by a dental radiologist. The DT-CWT was applied to the images in the ROI and every image was decomposed into 72 sub-images of the real and imaginary components in six different resolution levels and six orientations. The statistical features of the sub-image were calculated and used as data input for the support vector machine (SVM) classifier for the detection of SS. A ten-fold cross-validation was employed to verify the Resultof SVM. The accuracy of diagnosis was compared by a CAD system with a human observer performance. Results: The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy in the detection of SS were 95%, 86%, and 91% through our CAD system respectively, while those by a human observer were 84%, 81%, and 83% respectively. Conclusion: The proposed computer-aided diagnosis system for Sjoegren's syndrome in ultrasonography based on dual-tree complex wavelet transform had a better performance than a human observer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-F-R-17: Advancing Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) Recurrence Detection with MRI Image Texture Feature Extraction and Machine Learning

Purpose: To test the potential of early Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) recurrence detection utilizing image texture pattern analysis in serial MR images post primary treatment intervention. Methods: MR image-sets of six time points prior to the confirmed recurrence diagnosis of a GBM patient were included in this study, with each time point containing T1 pre-contrast, T1 post-contrast, T2-Flair, and T2-TSE images. Eight Gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) texture features including Contrast, Correlation, Dissimilarity, Energy, Entropy, Homogeneity, Sum-Average, and Variance were calculated from all images, resulting in a total of 32 features at each time point. A confirmed recurrent volume was contoured, along with an adjacent non-recurrent region-of-interest (ROI) and both volumes were propagated to all prior time points via deformable image registration. A support vector machine (SVM) with radial-basis-function kernels was trained on the latest time point prior to the confirmed recurrence to construct a model for recurrence classification. The SVM model was then applied to all prior time points and the volumes classified as recurrence were obtained. Results: An increase in classified volume was observed over time as expected. The size of classified recurrence maintained at a stable level of approximately 0.1 cm{sup 3} up to 272 days prior to confirmation. Noticeable volume increase to 0.44 cm{sup 3} was demonstrated at 96 days prior, followed by significant increase to 1.57 cm{sup 3} at 42 days prior. Visualization of the classified volume shows the merging of recurrence-susceptible region as the volume change became noticeable. Conclusion: Image texture pattern analysis in serial MR images appears to be sensitive to detecting the recurrent GBM a long time before the recurrence is confirmed by a radiologist. The early detection may improve the efficacy of targeted intervention including radiosurgery. More patient cases will be included to create a generalizable classification model applicable to a larger patient cohort. NIH R43CA183390 and R01CA188300.NSF Graduate Research Fellowship DGE-1144087.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Application of machine learning approaches in the analysis of mass absorption cross-section of black carbon aerosols: Aerosol composition dependencies and sensitivity analyses

Physics-based models typically require an in-depth understanding of a phenomenon and assumptions of the underlying process(es), which are often hard to obtain in practice, whereas data-driven machine learning models learn the structure and patterns in the training data without any prior theoretical assumptions and then use inference to develop useful predictions. A novel machine learning-based algorithm has been previously developed for the prediction of black carbon mass absorption cross-section (MAC BC ) and applied to a variety of different atmospheric environments. In contrast to light scattering theories which require assumptions about the underlying physics, this algorithm uses time-series data of aerosol properties to estimate the temporally-varying MAC BC at 870 nm. Here, we analyze our algorithm and discuss the influence of aerosol optical properties (such as Ångström exponents and single scattering albedo) and chemical composition on the model outputs and the associated accuracy. Additionally, we conduct sensitivity analyses on our models to understand how the predictions change in response to different sets of input variables. Our support vector machine (SVM) for regression model is the least sensitive to variations in the input variables, although all models tend to exhibit a degradation to their accuracy when scattering Ångström exponents are less than one.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Situational Awareness in Distribution Grid Using Micro-PMU Data: A Machine Learning Approach

The recent development of distribution-level phasor measurement units, a.k.a. micro-PMUs, has been an important step towards achieving situational awareness in power distribution networks. The challenge however is to transform the large amount of data that is generated by micro-PMUs to actionable information and then match the information to use cases with practical value to system operators. This open problem is addressed in this paper. First, we introduce a novel data-driven event detection technique to pick out valuable portion of data from extremely large raw micro-PMU data. Subsequently, a datadriven event classifier is developed to effectively classify power quality events. Importantly, we use field expert knowledge and utility records to conduct an extensive data-driven event labeling. Moreover, certain aspects from event detection analysis are adopted as additional features to be fed into the classifier model. In this regard, a multi-class support vector machine (multi-SVM) classifier is trained and tested over 15 days of real-world data from two micro-PMUs on a distribution feeder in Riverside, CA. In total, we analyze 1.2 billion measurement points, and 10,700 events. Here, the effectiveness of the developed event classifier is compared with prevalent multi-class classification methods, including k-nearest neighbor method as well as decision-tree method. Importantly, two real-world use-cases are presented for the proposed data analytics tools, including remote asset monitoring and distribution-level oscillation analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Detecting Process Equipment Failures Using Acoustic Data and Machine Learning

Nuclear power plant (NPP) process equipment such as fans, motors, valves, and pumps generate frequent or continuous noise, and deviations from the normal operational sounds made by this equipment can indicate potential issues. These deviations can be identified via automated acoustic anomaly detection, which involves using acoustic sensors (i.e., microphones) alongside detection algorithms to continuously monitor for changes in acoustic signatures. This task is made challenging by the substantial background noise that exists, such as operators opening and closing doors, manipulating valves, and conversing—in addition to typical plant noises. In collaboration with a nuclear power utility partner, this effort assessed the efficacy of acoustic anomaly detection when using a specific acoustic sensor that compresses data into a fixed set of features that are transferable over a standard Internet of Things communication protocol, thereby improving usability but potentially degrading detection performance. Two methods of performing automated acoustic anomaly detection were evaluated: one-class support vector machine (OC-SVM) and isolation forest (iForest). To enable the use of high-quality acoustic data encompassing both normal and anomalous conditions, the study utilized the publicly available Malfunctioning Industrial Machine Investigation and Inspection dataset, which includes real measured acoustic sensor data for a range of equipment types, model numbers, and signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), along with a benchmark set of detection results. Using this dataset, the methods were tested and then compared against the benchmark results. The results indicated that although the specific acoustic sensor did not enable as rich a feature set extraction, the proposed methods with the limited feature set performed just as well. This provides solid justification for both the methods and the use of the proposed acoustic sensor.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Machine learning framework for assessment of microbial factory performance

Metabolic models can estimate intrinsic product yields for microbial factories, but such frameworks struggle to predict cell performance (including product titer or rate) under suboptimal metabolism and complex bioprocess conditions. On the other hand, machine learning, complementary to metabolic modeling necessitates large amounts of data. Building such a database for metabolic engineering designs requires significant manpower and is prone to human errors and bias. We propose an approach to integrate data-driven methods with genome scale metabolic model for assessment of microbial bio-production (yield, titer and rate). Using engineered E. coli as an example, we manually extracted and curated a data set comprising about 1200 experimentally realized cell factories from ~100 papers. We furthermore augmented the key design features (e.g., genetic modifications and bioprocess variables) extracted from literature with additional features derived from running the genome-scale metabolic model iML1515 simulations with constraints that match the experimental data. Then, data augmentation and ensemble learning (e.g., support vector machines, gradient boosted trees, and neural networks in a stacked regressor model) are employed to alleviate the challenges of sparse, non-standardized, and incomplete data sets, while multiple correspondence analysis/principal component analysis are used to rank influential factors on bio-production. The hybrid framework demonstrates a reasonably high cross-validation accuracy for prediction of E.coli factory performance metrics under presumed bioprocess and pathway conditions (Pearson correlation coefficients between 0.8 and 0.93 on new data not seen by the model).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

WE-D-BRE-05: Prediction of Late Radiation-Induced Proctitis in Prostate Cancer Patients Using Chromosome Aberration and Cell Proliferation Rate

Purpose: Chromosome damage and cell proliferation rate have been investigated as potential biomarkers for the early prediction of late radiationinduced toxicity. Incorporating these endpoints, we explored the predictive power for late radiation proctitis using a machine learning method. Methods: Recently, Beaton et al. showed that chromosome aberration and cell proliferation rate could be used as biomarkers to predict late radiation proctitis (Beaton et al. (2013) Int J Rad Onc Biol Phys, 85:1346–1352). For the identification of radiosensitive biomarkers, blood samples were collected from 10 patients with grade 3 late proctitis along with 20 control patients with grade 0 proctitis. After irradiation at 6 Gy, statistically significant difference was observed between the two groups, using the number of dicentrics and excess fragments, and the number of cells in metaphase 2 (M2). However, Beaton et al. did not show the usefulness of combining these endpoints. We reanalyzed the dataset to investigate whether incorporating these endpoints can increase the predictive power of radiation proctitis, using a support vector machine (SVM). Results: Using the SVM method with the number of fragments and M2 endpoints, perfect classification was achieved. In addition, to avoid biased estimate of the classification method, leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) was performed. The best performance was achieved when all three endpoints were used with 87% accuracy, 90% sensitivity, 85% specificity, and 0.85 AUC (the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve). The most significant endpoint was the number of fragments that obtained 83% accuracy, 70% sensitivity, 90% specificity, and 0.82 AUC. Conclusion: We demonstrated that chromosome damage and cell proliferation rate could be significant biomarkers to predict late radiation proctitis. When these endpoints were used together in conjunction with a machine learning method, the better performance was obtained. However, evaluation for other late radiation toxicities is necessary to elucidate these observations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A machine learning approach to water quality forecasts and sensor network expansion: Case study in the Wabash River Basin, United States

Abstract Midwestern cities require forecasts of surface nitrate loads to bring additional treatment processes online or activate alternative water supplies. Concurrently, networks of nitrate monitoring stations are being deployed in river basins, co‐locating water quality observations with established stream gauges. However, tools to evaluate the future value of expanded networks to improve water quality forecasts remains challenging. Here, we construct a synthetic data set of stream discharge and nitrate for the Wabash River Basin—one of the United States’ most nutrient polluted basins—using the established Agro‐IBIS and THMB models. Synthetic data enables rapid, unbiased and low‐cost assessment of potential sensor placements to support management objectives, such as near‐term forecasting. Using the synthetic data, we established baseline 1‐day forecasts for surface water nitrate at 12 cities in the basin using support vector machine regression (SVMR; RMSE 0.48–3.3 ppm). Next, we used the SVMRs to evaluate the improvement in forecast performance associated with deployment of additional nitrate sensors. We identified the optimal sensor placement to improve forecasts at each city, and the relative value of sensors at each candidate location. Finally, we assessed the co‐benefit realized by other cities when a sensor is deployed to optimize a forecast at one city, finding significant positive externalities in all cases. Ultimately, our study explores the potential for machine learning to make near‐term predictions and critically evaluate the improvement realized by expanding a monitoring network. While we use nitrate pollution in the Wabash River Basin as a case study, this approach could be readily applied to any problem where the future value of sensors and network design are being evaluated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SU-C-BRA-05: Delineating High-Dose Clinical Target Volumes for Head and Neck Tumors Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Purpose: To develop and test population-based machine learning algorithms for delineating high-dose clinical target volumes (CTVs) in H&N tumors. Automating and standardizing the contouring of CTVs can reduce both physician contouring time and inter-physician variability, which is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in H&N radiotherapy. Methods: Twenty-five node-negative patients treated with definitive radiotherapy were selected (6 right base of tongue, 11 left and 9 right tonsil). All patients had GTV and CTVs manually contoured by an experienced radiation oncologist prior to treatment. This contouring process, which is driven by anatomical, pathological, and patient specific information, typically results in non-uniform margin expansions about the GTV. Therefore, we tested two methods to delineate high-dose CTV given a manually-contoured GTV: (1) regression-support vector machines(SVM) and (2) classification-SVM. These models were trained and tested on each patient group using leave-one-out cross-validation. The volume difference(VD) and Dice similarity coefficient(DSC) between the manual and auto-contoured CTV were calculated to evaluate the results. Distances from GTV-to-CTV were computed about each patient’s GTV and these distances, in addition to distances from GTV to surrounding anatomy in the expansion direction, were utilized in the regression-SVM method. The classification-SVM method used categorical voxel-information (GTV, selected anatomical structures, else) from a 3×3×3cm3 ROI centered about the voxel to classify voxels as CTV. Results: Volumes for the auto-contoured CTVs ranged from 17.1 to 149.1cc and 17.4 to 151.9cc; the average(range) VD between manual and auto-contoured CTV were 0.93 (0.48–1.59) and 1.16(0.48–1.97); while average(range) DSC values were 0.75(0.59–0.88) and 0.74(0.59–0.81) for the regression-SVM and classification-SVM methods, respectively. Conclusion: We developed two novel machine learning methods to delineate high-dose CTV for H&N patients. Both methods showed promising results that hint to a solution to the standardization of the contouring process of clinical target volumes. Varian Medical Systems grant.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Integrating Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning Algorithms to Categorize Oncologic Response in Radiology Reports

A significant volume of medical data remains unstructured. Natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning (ML) techniques have shown to successfully extract insights from radiology reports. However, the codependent effects of NLP and ML in this context have not been well-studied. Between April 1, 2015 and November 1, 2016, 9418 cross-sectional abdomen/pelvis CT and MR examinations containing our internal structured reporting element for cancer were separated into four categories: Progression, Stable Disease, Improvement, or No Cancer. We combined each of three NLP techniques with five ML algorithms to predict the assigned label using the unstructured report text and compared the performance of each combination. The three NLP algorithms included term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF), term frequency weighting (TF), and 16-bit feature hashing. The ML algorithms included logistic regression (LR), random decision forest (RDF), one-vs-all support vector machine (SVM), one-vs-all Bayes point machine (BPM), and fully connected neural network (NN). The best-performing NLP model consisted of tokenized unigrams and bigrams with TF-IDF. Increasing N-gram length yielded little to no added benefit for most ML algorithms. With all parameters optimized, SVM had the best performance on the test dataset, with 90.6 average accuracy and F score of 0.813. The interplay between ML and NLP algorithms and their effect on interpretation accuracy is complex. The best accuracy is achieved when both algorithms are optimized concurrently.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Geometrical defect detection for additive manufacturing with machine learning models

This study proposed a scheme based on Machine Learning (ML) models to detect geometric defects of additively manufactured objects. The ML models are trained with synthetic 3D point clouds with defects and then applied to detect defects in actual production. Using synthetic 3D point clouds rather than experimental data could save a huge amount of training time and costs associated with many prints for each design. Besides distance differences of individual points between source and target point clouds, this scheme uses a new concept called “patch” to capture macro-level information about nearby points for ML training and implementation. Numerical comparisons of prediction results on experimental data with different shapes showed that the proposed scheme outperformed the existing Z-difference method in the literature. Five ML methods (Bagging of Trees, Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, K-nearest Neighbors and Linear Supported Vector Machine) were compared under various conditions, such as different point cloud densities and defect sizes. Bagging and Random Forest were found the two best models regarding predictability; and the right patch size was found to be at 20. The proposed ML-based scheme is applicable to in-situ defect detection during additive manufacturing with the aid of a proper 3D data acquisition system.

Additive manufacturing↗

Prediction of cardiac death after adenosine myocardial perfusion SPECT based on machine learning

Background: We developed machine-learning (ML) models to estimate a patient’s risk of cardiac death based on adenosine myocardial perfusion SPECT (MPS) and associated clinical data, and compared their performance to baseline logistic regression (LR). We demonstrated an approach to visually convey the reasoning behind a patient’s risk to provide insight to clinicians beyond that of a “black box.” Methods: We trained multiple models using 122 potential clinical predictors (features) for 8321 patients, including 551 cases of subsequent cardiac death. Accuracy was measured by area under the ROC curve (AUC), computed within a cross-validation framework. We developed a method to display the model’s rationale to facilitate clinical interpretation. Results: The baseline LR (AUC = 0.76; 14 features) was outperformed by all other methods. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model (AUC = 0.77; p = .045; 6 features) required the fewest features. A support vector machine (SVM) model (AUC = 0.83; p < .0001; 49 features) provided the highest accuracy. Conclusions: LASSO outperformed LR in both accuracy and simplicity (number of features), with SVM yielding best AUC for prediction of cardiac death in patients undergoing MPS. Combined with presenting the reasoning behind the risk scores, our results suggest that ML can be more effective than LR for this application.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗