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DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction and Control Project: Summary Report on Data Analytics Framework

This report summarizes the activities performed under the data analytics Vertex in the Materials Characterization, Prediction and Control Project funded under laboratory directed research and development at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The data analytics Vertex developed models for associating global or local process parameters, microstructural features, and performance properties of friction-stir-processed 316L stainless steel plates. Statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, as well as generative artificial intelligence approaches, were used to develop the associations between the process-structure-property data streams. These associations formed the basis for predicting global properties of parts manufactured under different process envelopes, providing a basis for predicting performance using data driven as well as physics-informed and physics-constrained approaches. Additionally, the associations were used to predict local process parameters and microstructural features of the product, predictive relationships that have the potential to form the basis of a control framework that could eventually modulate a friction-stir process to maintain product quality.

316L stainless steel↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data driven investigation to understand the influence of total solids on biological biogas upgrading

In situ biogas upgrading achieves CO 2 conversion to CH 4 via hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis; however, gas-liquid mass transfer constraints limit the upgrading performance. Recognizing that optimization studies often underrepresent the effects of total solids (TS) and organic loading rate (OLR), this study undertook a holistic, statistics driven assessment of operating conditions for in situ H 2 assisted biogas upgrading, centering the analysis on TS and OLR. A dataset of 31 studies was compiled and comprised 99 observations. A rigorous analytical framework was employed, combining data standardization, fixed- and random-effects (REML) weighted regressions with cluster-robust errors, stratified analyses, and machine learning. Mixed-effects meta regression indicated that TS was the main factor explaining differences of methane fraction (CH 4 %) when considering the between studies heterogeneity. Focusing on a near-stoichiometric subset (H 2 /CO 2 ≈ 4:1), TS remained significant. Stratified results showed a stronger negative relationship between TS and CH 4 % in UASB reactors than in CSTRs, with a negative effect under mesophilic conditions and no significant effect under thermophilic conditions. A Random Forest model corroborated the statistical findings, consistently ranking H 2 /CO 2 ratio, OLR, TS, and hydrogen injection rate (HIR) as the most influential predictors. These findings delineate trends across increasing TS levels, particularly between 1% and 10%, and provide preliminary insights for TS above 15% in in situ biogas upgrading. They further provide insights for the influence of TS by reactor type and temperature, thereby advancing the evidence base for implementing biological CO 2 conversion to CH 4 in practice.

In situ biogas upgrading↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prototype equation of state for phase transition of confined fluids based on the generalized van der Waals partition function

A simple self-consistent prototype equation of state (EOS) based on the Generalized van der Waals (vdW) partition function has been demonstrated to describe the phase transition of simple fluids in nanopores with uniform size. Different from those commonly presented in the literature, the new EOS does not need an auxiliary equation that is conventionally applied to provide the capillary pressure derived from surface tension. Lastly, the encouraging performance of the EOS calls for further extension to applications with more complex fluids and porous media.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Beyond the Debye–Hückel limit: Toward a general theory for concentrated electrolytes

The phenomenon of underscreening in concentrated electrolyte solutions leads to a larger decay length of the charge–charge correlation than the prediction of Debye–Hückel (DH) theory and has found a resurgence of both theoretical and experimental interest in the chemical physics community. To systematically understand and investigate this phenomenon in electrolytes requires a theory of concentrated electrolytes to describe charge–charge correlations beyond the DH theory. We review the theories of electrolytes that can transition from the DH limit to concentrations where charge correlations dominate, giving rise to underscreening and the associated Kirkwood Transitions (KTs). In this perspective, we provide a conceptual approach to a theoretical formulation of electrolyte solutions that exploits the competition between molecular-informed short-range (SR) and long-range interactions. We demonstrate that all deviations from the DH limit for real electrolyte solutions can be expressed through a single function ΣQ that can be determined both theoretically and numerically. Importantly, ΣQ can be directly related to the details of SR interactions and, therefore, can be used as a tool to understand how differences in representations of interaction can influence collective effects. The precise function form of ΣQ can be inferred through a Gaussian field theory of both the number and charge densities. The resulting formulation is validated by experiment and can accurately describe the collective phenomenon of screening in concentrated bulk electrolytes. Importantly, the Gaussian field theory predictions of the screening lengths appear to be less than ∼1 nm at concentrations above KTs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microscopic insights into the solvation of polyethylene glycol chains in water: A machine learning potential approach

Polyethylene glycol (PEG) is a structurally simple, nontoxic, and water-soluble polymer widely utilized in medical and pharmaceutical applications. Notably, when a PEG chain is immersed in water, the surrounding water molecules play a key role in driving conformational changes of this macromolecule. In this study, we explore the solvation behavior of PEG under mechanical strain using molecular dynamics simulations, with an interatomic potential obtained from machine learning. Our focus is on the transition from the favored coil-like conformation to an extended one under external force. Through analyses of radial distribution functions, hydrogen bonding, and solvation dynamics, we uncover how mechanical stretching influences the local hydration environment. Furthermore, we disentangle the enthalpic and entropic contributions to the conformational stability of PEG in water. Surprisingly, our neural network potential model identifies dewetting of PEG C-atoms, and not water H-bonding with PEG O-atoms, as the main enthalpic driving force for the coiling of PEG in water.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting the potential of weak lensing magnification to enhance LSST large-scale structure analyses

ABSTRACT Recent works have shown that weak lensing magnification must be included in upcoming large-scale structure analyses, such as for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), to avoid biasing the cosmological results. In this work, we investigate whether including magnification has a positive impact on the precision of the cosmological constraints, as well as being necessary to avoid bias. We forecast this using an LSST mock catalogue and a halo model to calculate the galaxy power spectra. We find that including magnification has little effect on the precision of the cosmological parameter constraints for an LSST galaxy clustering analysis, where the halo model parameters are additionally constrained by the galaxy luminosity function. In particular, we find that for the LSST gold sample (i < 25.3) including weak lensing magnification only improves the galaxy clustering constraint on Ωm by a factor of 1.03, and when using a very deep LSST mock sample (i < 26.5) by a factor of 1.3. Since magnification predominantly contributes to the clustering measurement and provides similar information to that of cosmic shear, this improvement would be reduced for a combined galaxy clustering and shear analysis. We also confirm that not modelling weak lensing magnification will catastrophically bias the cosmological results from LSST. Magnification must therefore be included in LSST large-scale structure analyses even though it does not significantly enhance the precision of the cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

FRAM Version 7.1’s Bias

The Fixed-Energy Response-Function Analysis with Multiple Efficiency (FRAM) code was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to measure the gamma-ray spectrometry of the isotopic composition of plutonium, uranium, and other actinides. For FRAM versions 4 and earlier, the reported uncertainties of the results come from the propagation of the statistics in the peak areas only. No systematic error components are included in the reported uncertainties. For FRAM versions 5 and 6, we examined the FRAM analytical results of both the archival plutonium data and the data specifically acquired for the isotopic uncertainty analysis project and found the relationship between the bias and other parameters. We worked out the equations representing the biases of the measured isotopes from each measurement using internal spectral parameters, such as peak resolution and shape, region of analysis, and burnup (for plutonium) or enrichment (for uranium). The resulting biases were included in the reported uncertainties of FRAM v.5 and v.6.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effect of Solvent on the Interaction of Lignin with a Zeolite Nanosheet in the Condensed Phase

Lignin is the essential building block of lignocellulosic biomass, an excellent renewable source of different aromatic monomers for the polymer and biofuel industry. The depolymerization of lignin into value-added chemicals and fuels through the catalytic process poses a significant challenge due to the complex structure of lignin. Understanding lignin’s conformational diversity and dynamics in the liquid phase is crucial to designing an effective depolymerization process. Here, we conducted all-atom molecular dynamics simulations to understand the conformation and dynamics of softwood lignin on the all-silica zeolite nanosheet based on the MFI topology in a binary mixture of water–methanol at three different molar compositions (0%, 50%, and 100% methanol). We observed that the methanol–surface interaction is stronger than the water–surface interaction, and methanol readily diffused into the MFI core. Lignin surface contacts decrease with increasing methanol composition due to higher solubility and dynamics. Lignin dynamics on the surface in neat water is an order of magnitude smaller than methanol. Here, we also found that lignin adopts a slightly extended conformation when it stays on the surface than in the bulk solution phase for the pure water case, whereas for pure methanol and the binary solution structures are statistically similar.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

ICE Calculator 2.0: Final Report for Phase 1 of the National Initiative to Update the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator

In 2021, Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations, Inc. launched the “ICE 2.0 Initiative” – a national study to refresh the underlying data and enhance the functionality of the ICE Calculator. The Initiative involves Berkeley Lab contracting with sponsoring utilities to administer identical, updated and comprehensive interruption cost surveys to statistically representative samples of each utility’s customers. Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations then pool the survey results across the utilities and use them to update the analytical engines that drive the ICE Calculator. The ICE 2.0 Initiative is being conducted in phases. Each phase involves the administration of interruption cost surveys to the customers of sponsoring utilities, followed by an update to the ICE Calculator based on analysis of the pooled survey results. This report describes the activities and findings from Phase 1 of the ICE 2.0 Initiative. Phase 1 was sponsored by eight utilities: American Electric Power, Commonwealth Edison, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, DTE Electric, Exelon, National Grid, and Puget Sound Energy. Phase 1 involved 11 customer interruption cost survey activities representing a total of 24 electricity distribution service territories, 23 of them located in the Eastern and Midwestern regions of the U.S. and one located in the Pacific Northwest. ICE 2.0 vs. 1.0 Comparison This memorandum compares customer power interruption costs estimated using the recently updated Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator (“ICE 2.0”) to the original ICE Calculator (“ICE 1.0”). ICE 1.0 was developed in 2009 based on 15 independent power interruption cost surveys conducted by 10 electric utilities between 1989 and 2012. ICE 2.0 was developed in 2025 through a national initiative based on a consistent set of power interruption cost surveys and 11 surveying efforts conducted across 24 electric utility service territories between 2022 and 2024.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

ICE Calculator 2: Final Report for Phase 1 and 2 of the National Initiative to Update the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator

ICE 2.0 Phase 2 Final Report In 2021, Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations, Inc. launched the “ICE Calculator 2 Initiative” – a national study to refresh the underlying data and enhance the functionality of the ICE Calculator. The Initiative involves Berkeley Lab contracting with sponsoring utilities to administer identical, updated and comprehensive interruption cost surveys to statistically representative samples of each utility’s customers. Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations then pool the survey results across the utilities and use them to update the analytical engines that drive the ICE Calculator. The ICE Calculator 2 Initiative is being conducted in phases. Each phase involves the administration of interruption cost surveys to the customers of sponsoring utilities, followed by an update to the ICE Calculator based on analysis of the pooled survey results. This report describes the activities and findings from Phase 1 and 2 of the ICE Calculator 2 Initiative. Phase 1 was sponsored by eight utilities: American Electric Power, Commonwealth Edison, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, DTE Electric, Exelon, National Grid, and Puget Sound Energy. Phase 2 was sponsored by six utilities: Empire District Electric Company, Evergy Missouri, Pacific Gas & Electric, San Diego Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, and Union Electric. Phase 1 and 2 involved 15 customer interruption cost survey activities representing a total of 30 electricity distribution service territories. ICE Calculator Version 2.0 and 2.2 Comparison This memorandum describes–at a high-level–the improvements in interruption cost estimates for the version 2.2 of the ICE Calculator (released February 2026) compared to version 2.0 (released in April 2025). Version 2.2 of the ICE Calculator corresponds to Phase 2 of the initiative, while version 2.0 corresponds to Phase 1. The improvements in version 2.2 result from both a significant increase in the number of customer responses that have been collected and the identification of seven additional factors that help estimate customer interruption costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

From multivariate to functional data analysis: Fundamentals, recent developments, and emerging areas

Functional data analysis (FDA), which is a branch of statistics on modeling infinite dimensional random vectors resided in functional spaces, has become a major research area for Journal of Multivariate Analysis. We review some fundamental concepts of FDA, their origins and connections from multivariate analysis, and some of its recent developments, including multi-level functional data analysis, high-dimensional functional regression, and dependent functional data analysis. Here, we also discuss the impact of these new methodology developments on genetics, plant science, wearable device data analysis, image data analysis, and business analytics. Two real data examples are provided to motivate our discussions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Kinetics of simultaneous hydrodesulfurization and hydrodenitrogenation reactions using CoMoP/Al 2 O 3 and NiMoP/Al 2 O 3

Hydrodesulfurization (HDS) is a key reaction to achieve diesel production at the specified low sulfur levels and is highly affected by a competing reaction involving nitrogen removal through hydrodenitrogenation (HDN). This work evaluated kinetic parameters of simultaneous reactions of HDS of dibenzothiophene (DBT) and HDN of quinoline (Q) using CoMoP/Al 2 O 3 and NiMoP/Al 2 O 3 catalysts under operational conditions that allow a wide range of reagent conversions. Estimated parameters were evaluated using rigorous statistical 2 analysis. Good fits for the evaluated experimental data were provided by both power-law and Langmuir-Hinshelwood models. Further, turnover frequency values highlight adsorption and competition effects between nitrogen-containing compounds and sulfur-containing compounds. NiMoP catalyst showed higher hydrogenating power than CoMoP, with larger absolute value of the estimated adsorption enthalpy (-120 kJ.mol -1 for NiMoP and -75 kJ.mol -1 for CoMoP), suggesting strong adsorption of nitrogen compounds. A catalyst with more hydrogenating power is also more capable of performing both HDN and HDS reactions simultaneously.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Automated Scanning Transmission Electron Microscope Guided by Sparse Data Analytics

Abstract Artificial intelligence (AI) promises to reshape scientific inquiry and enable breakthrough discoveries in areas such as energy storage, quantum computing, and biomedicine. Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), a cornerstone of the study of chemical and materials systems, stands to benefit greatly from AI-driven automation. However, present barriers to low-level instrument control, as well as generalizable and interpretable feature detection, make truly automated microscopy impractical. Here, we discuss the design of a closed-loop instrument control platform guided by emerging sparse data analytics. We hypothesize that a centralized controller, informed by machine learning combining limited a priori knowledge and task-based discrimination, could drive on-the-fly experimental decision-making. This platform may unlock practical, automated analysis of a variety of material features, enabling new high-throughput and statistical studies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Observational process data analytics using causal inference

Voluminous process data are available with the paradigm shift toward smart manufacturing. However, most historical data are observational, containing noncausal correlations due to confounders and mediators. Estimating causal effects from observational data remains a bottleneck in leveraging them for active applications such as optimization and control. Further, this work aims to introduce a causal modeling framework for analyzing observational process data and extracting quantitative causal information. We demonstrate a real-world application in steel manufacturing where causal inference is used to analyze observational production data and improve the steelmaking process. Additionally, we propose a novel formulation for identifying critical process parameters from observational data, where causal inference is combined with variance-based methods to estimate corresponding risks of interventions to the manufacturing system. The proposed methods are compared with statistical ones to illustrate that causally interpreting statistical correlation leads to problematic results, while the provided workflow generates satisfactory strategies for process improvement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Search for dimuon resonance in the 35 to 75 GeV mass range using 140 fb−1 of 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A model-independent search for low-mass resonances decaying into pairs of oppositely charged muons is presented. The analysis uses proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1, recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider between 2015 and 2018. The search targets hypothetical dimuon resonances in the invariant mass range from 35 GeV to 75 GeV. The modelling of this mass region is particularly challenging for conventional analytic background parameterisations. To address this, a Gaussian process regression technique is used to model the background. The dimuon mass spectrum is analysed for potential signals, and no statistically significant excess is observed. Upper limits at the 95% confidence level are set on the fiducial production cross-section of new resonances decaying promptly into muons, ranging from 20 fb to 110 fb, depending on the resonance mass. These results are further interpreted in the context of dark-photon and dark-matter-mediator models, leading to new constraints on their parameter spaces.

Aad, G↗

DOE OSTI2020

Time reversal symmetry breaking and odd viscosity in active fluids: Green–Kubo and NEMD results

Active fluids, which are driven at the microscale by non-conservative forces, are known to exhibit novel transport phenomena due to the breaking of time reversal symmetry. Recently, Epstein and Mandadapu [arXiv:1907.10041 (2019)] obtained Green-Kubo relations for the full set of viscous coefficients governing isotropic chiral active fluids, including the so-called odd viscosity, invoking Onsager's regression hypothesis for the decay of fluctuations in active non-equilibrium steady states. In this Communication, we test these Green-Kubo relations using molecular dynamics simulations of a canonical model system consisting of actively torqued dumbbells. We find the resulting odd and shear viscosity values from the Green-Kubo relations to be in good agreement with values measured independently through non-equilibrium molecular dynamics flow simulations. This provides a test of the Green-Kubo relations and lends support to the application of the Onsager regression hypothesis in relation to viscous behaviors of active matter systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Role of water model on ion dissociation at ambient conditions

In this work, we study ion pair dissociation in water at ambient conditions using a combination of classical and ab initio approaches. The goal of this study is to disentangle the sources of discrepancy observed in computed potentials of mean force. In particular, we aim to understand why some models favor the stability of solvent-separated ion pairs vs contact ion pairs. We found that some observed differences can be explained by non-converged simulation parameters. However, we also unveil that for some models, small changes in the solution density can have significant effects on modifying the equilibrium balance between the two configurations. We conclude that the thermodynamic stability of contact and solvent-separated ion pairs is very sensitive to the dielectric properties of the underlying simulation model. In general, classical models are very robust in providing a similar estimation of the contact ion pair stability, while this is much more variable in density functional theory-based models. The barrier to transition from the solvent-separated to contact ion pair is fundamentally dependent on the balance between electrostatic potential energy and entropy. This reflects the importance of water intra- and inter-molecular polarizability in obtaining an accurate description of the screened ion–ion interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Isotope effects in supercooled H 2 O and D 2 O and a corresponding-states-like rescaling of the temperature and pressure

Water shows anomalous properties that are enhanced upon supercooling. The unusual behavior is observed in both H 2 O and D 2 O, however, with different temperature dependences for the two isotopes. It is often noted that comparing the properties of the isotopes at two different temperatures (i.e., a temperature shift) approximately accounts for many of the observations—with a temperature shift of 7.2 K in the temperature of maximum density being the most well-known example. However, the physical justification for such a shift is unclear. Motivated by recent work demonstrating a “corresponding-states-like” rescaling for water properties in three classical water models that all exhibit a liquid–liquid transition and critical point, the applicability of this approach for reconciling the differences in the temperature- and pressure-dependent thermodynamic properties of H 2 O and D 2 O is investigated here. Utilizing previously published data and equations-of-state for H 2 O and D 2 O, we show that the available data and models for these isotopes are consistent with such a low temperature correspondence. These observations provide support for the hypothesis that a liquid–liquid critical point, which is predicted to occur at low temperatures and high pressures, is the origin of many of water’s anomalies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗