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At least 253 records · Page 14

Persistent ocean anomalies as a response to Northern Hemisphere heating induced by biomass burning variability

Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical forcing fields have enhanced temporal variability during the years 1997–2014 compared to earlier periods. Recent studies document that the corresponding inhomogeneous shortwave forcing over this period can cause changes in clouds, permafrost, and soil moisture, which contribute to a net terrestrial Northern Hemisphere warming relative to earlier periods. Here, we investigate the ocean response to the hemispherically asymmetric warming, using a 100-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble forced by two different BBA emissions (CMIP6 default and temporally smoothed over 1990–2020). Differences between the two subensemble means show that ocean temperature anomalies occur during periods of high BBA variability and subsequently persist over multiple decades. In the North Atlantic, surface warming is efficiently compensated for by decreased northward oceanic heat transport due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. In the North Pacific, surface warming is compensated for by an anomalous cross-equatorial cell (CEC) that reduces northward oceanic heat transport. The heat that converges in the South Pacific through the anomalous CEC is shunted into the subsurface and contributes to formation of long-lasting ocean temperature anomalies. The anomalous CEC is maintained through latitude-dependent contributions from narrow western boundary currents and basin-wide near-surface Ekman transport. Furthermore, these results indicate that interannual variability in forcing fields may significantly change the background climate state over long timescales, presenting a potential uncertainty in CMIP6-class climate projections forced without interannual variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations

Understanding the interaction between humans and the Earth system is a computationally daunting task, with many possible approaches depending on resources available and questions of interest. For example, state-of-the-art impact models require decade-long time series of relatively high frequency, spatially resolved and often multiple variables representing climatic impact-drivers (Ruane et al., 2022). Most commonly these are derived from the outputs of detailed, computationally expensive Earth System Models (ESMs) run according to a standard, limited set of future scenarios, the latest being the SSP-RCPs run under CMIP6/ScenarioMIP (Eyring et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2016). At the time of writing, O’Neill et al. (2016) has been cited more than 1750 times and Eyring et al. (2016) more than 5000 times, highlighting the broad, general applications of this data. Often, however, impact modeling seeks to explore new scenarios that were not part of the ScenarioMIP protocol, and/or needs a larger set of initial condition ensemble members than are typically available to quantify the effects of ESM internal variability. In addition, the recognition that the human and Earth systems are fundamentally intertwined, and may feature potentially significant feedback loops, is making integrated, simultaneous modeling of the coupled human-Earth system increasingly necessary, if computationally challenging with most existing tools (Thornton et al., 2017). For impact modelers, climate model emulators can be the answer to meet both the needs of: 1) creating realizations for novel scenarios and 2) achieving a simplified, computationally tractable representation of ESM behavior in a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. We proposed a new, comprehensive approach to such emulation of gridded, multivariate ESM outputs for novel scenarios without the computational cost of a full ESM, STITCHES (Tebaldi et al., 2022). The approach outlined in Tebaldi et al. (2022) should be extensible to future CMIP eras, although the STITCHES software at present is strictly focused on CMIP6/ScenarioMIP data hosted on Pangeo (https://gallery.pangeo.io/repos/pangeo-gallery/cmip6/). The corresponding STITCHES Python package uses existing archives of ESMs’ scenario experiments from CMIP6/ScenarioMIP to construct gridded, multivariate realizations of new scenarios provided by reduced complexity climate models (Hartin et al., 2015; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2018), or to enrich existing initial condition ensembles. Its output provides the same characteristics as the emulated ESM output: multivariate (spanning potentially all variables that the ESM has saved), spatially resolved (down to the native grid of the ESM), and preserving the same high frequency as the original data. A new realization of multiple variables can be generated on the order of minutes with STITCHES, rather than the hours or sometimes days that ESMs require.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The role of impulsive particle acceleration in magnetotail circulation

Recent results from investigations carried out using the active magnetospheric particle tracer explorer/ion release module (AMPTE/IRM) satellite and International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) show that bursty, near-neutral sheet fast flows are an important part of the transport in the near-earth tail. The results related to such flows are reviewed, and information is presented on their relation to the average plasma sheet characteristics and substorms. The average ion density, temperature and flow variability in the quiet inner plasma sheet exhibit a spatial dependence which suggests a dependence on Bursty Bulk Flows (BBFs). The energy and flux transport in the tail is discussed and it is stated that BBFs are responsible for such transport. The tailward progression of activity is considered.

Angelopoulos, V.↗

Modeling State Transition and Head-Dependent Efficiency Curve for Pumped Storage Hydro in Look-Ahead Dispatch

As one of the most widely installed utility-scale storage facilities, pumped storage hydro (PSH) plays an essential role in providing flexibility for power systems worldwide. Thus, to accurately quantify the flexibility of PSH units in operational optimization problems is important. The conventional PSH models in the literature rarely consider detailed state transitions due to their hourly-based settings. However, it becomes imperative for operational optimization on short-term intervals, especially with increasing shares of renewable energy in power systems. To this end, this paper presents a novel deterministic PSH model that considers the transition time and trajectory between three states of PSH units in look-ahead dispatch. Moreover, to better characterize the varying efficiency of PSH units with water head and flow rate, this paper proposes to model detailed headdependent efficiency curves (hereafter called input-output curves) in look-ahead dispatch, which encounters heavy computational burdens when short time intervals are applied. In this work, a zig-zag piece-wise linear approximation method is used for input-output curve modeling. This can enable an accurate quantification for variable efficiency and head dependence in a computationally effective manner. Here, numerical results are presented to show performances of the proposed PSH model in both flexibility quantification and computation time.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Dominant Wave Energy Systems and Conditional Wave Resource Characterization for Coastal Waters of the United States

Opportunities and constraints for wave energy conversion technologies and projects are evaluated by identifying and characterizing the dominant wave energy systems for United States (US) coastal waters using marginal and joint distributions of the wave energy in terms of the peak period, wave direction, and month. These distributions are computed using partitioned wave parameters generated from a 30 year WaveWatch III model hindcast, and regionally averaged to identify the dominant wave systems contributing to the total annual available energy ( A A E ) for eleven distinct US wave energy climate regions. These dominant wave systems are linked to the wind systems driving their generation and propagation. In addition, conditional resource parameters characterizing peak period spread, directional spread, and seasonal variability, which consider dependencies of the peak period, direction, and month, are introduced to augment characterization methods recommended by international standards. These conditional resource parameters reveal information that supports project planning, conceptual design, and operation and maintenance. The present study shows that wave energy resources for the United States are dominated by long-period North Pacific swells (Alaska, West Coast, Hawaii), short-period trade winds and nor’easter swells (East Coast, Puerto Rico), and wind seas (Gulf of Mexico). Seasonality, peak period spread, and directional spread of these dominant wave systems are characterized to assess regional opportunities and constraints for wave energy conversion technologies targeting the dominant wave systems.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

High-speed multicolor photometry of V834 Centaurus

Results are presented of high-speed photometric observations of the Am Her object, V834 Centaurus which, during its high state, revealed the 0.3-0.9 Hz quasi-period oscillations (QPOs) with rms amplitudes of 3.3 +/-1.1 percent and 2.5 +/-0.8 percent in the V and R bands, respectively, while the U-band amplitude was consistent with zero on one night but was 2.5 +/-1.2 percent on the following night. The QPOs in the B band were always consistent with zero. The data were obtained on the nights of June 16-21, 1990, when the average V magnitude of V834 Cen was about 15.3, confirming the high-luminosity state. The dominance of the QPOs by V-band emission is in contrast to earlier studies by Larsson which found that the QPOs were dominated by emission in the B and R band, depending upon the luminosity state of V834 Cen. In all cases, the QPOs of V834 have frequencies of 0.3-0.9 Hz. It is inferred that the color of the QPOs could be highly variable between luminosity states and may be variable in the U band within the high-luminosity state.

Middleditch, John↗

A mechanics framework for a progressive failure methodology for laminated composites

A laminate strength and life prediction methodology has been postulated for laminated composites which accounts for the progressive development of microstructural damage to structural failure. A damage dependent constitutive model predicts the stress redistribution in an average sense that accompanies damage development in laminates. Each mode of microstructural damage is represented by a second-order tensor valued internal state variable which is a strain like quantity. The mechanics framework together with the global-local strategy for predicting laminate strength and life is presented in the paper. The kinematic effects of damage are represented by effective engineering moduli in the global analysis and the results of the global analysis provide the boundary conditions for the local ply level stress analysis. Damage evolution laws are based on experimental results.

Harris, Charles E.↗

Comparison of INP Parameterizations for Dust Minerals in Climatological Simulations With a Global Model

The effect of aerosol particles on ice nucleation and, in turn, the formation of ice and mixed phase clouds is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in weather and climate prediction. We utilize an improved sectional dust module in NASA GISS Earth System ModelE2.1, which distinguishes eight different mineral species and accretions between iron oxides and the other minerals. Simulations over a period of 20 years have been carried out with this model, and the mineral fields and other model variables (temperature, relative humidity) are used to calculate the ice nucleating particle (INP) number concentration, applying time-independent and time-dependent INP parameterizations, such as active site parameterization and water activity based immersion freezing model (ABIFM). We study how the dependence of the parameterizations on different model variables affects the mean INP number concentration. The sensitivity of the INP number concentration to fundamental dust properties such as emitted mineral size distributions and mixing state between minerals is also investigated. Results show that the sensitivity of the total INP number concentration to the emitted dust size distribution is rather small, but the sensitivity over the whole size range obscures offsetting differences in the magnitude and the sign of the sensitivity between smaller and larger particles.

INP Parameterizations↗

Q-balls meet fuzzballs: non-BPS microstate geometries

We construct a three-parameter family of non-extremal microstate geometries, or “microstrata”, that are dual to states and deformations of the D1-D5 CFT. These families are non-extremal analogues of superstrata. We find these microstrata by using a Q-ball-inspired Ansatz that reduces the equations of motion to solving for eleven functions of one variable. We then solve this system both perturbatively and numerically and the results match extremely well. We find that the solutions have normal mode frequencies that depend upon the amplitudes of the excitations. We also show that, at higher order in perturbations, some of the solutions, having started with normalizable modes, develop a “non-normalizable” part, suggesting that the microstrata represent states in a perturbed form of the D1-D5 CFT. This paper is intended as a “Proof of Concept” for the Q-ball-inspired approach, and we will describe how it opens the way to many interesting follow-up calculations both in supergravity and in the dual holographic field theory.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A mesh gradient technique for numerical optimization

A class of successive-improvement optimization methods in which directions of descent are defined in the state space along each trial trajectory are considered. The given problem is first decomposed into two discrete levels by imposing mesh points. Level 1 consists of running optimal subarcs between each successive pair of mesh points. For normal systems, these optimal two-point boundary value problems can be solved by following a routine prescription if the mesh spacing is sufficiently close. A spacing criterion is given. Under appropriate conditions, the criterion value depends only on the coordinates of the mesh points, and its gradient with respect to those coordinates may be defined by interpreting the adjoint variables as partial derivatives of the criterion value function. In level 2, the gradient data is used to generate improvement steps or search directions in the state space which satisfy the boundary values and constraints of the given problem.

Willis, E. A., Jr.↗

Soil organic matter diagenetic state informs boreal forest ecosystem feedbacks to climate change

The fate of soil organic carbon (SOC) in boreal forests is dependent on the integrative ecosystem response to climate change. For example, boreal forest productivity is often nitrogen (N) limited, and climate warming can enhance N cycling and primary productivity. However, the net effect of this feedback on the SOC reservoir and its longevity with climate change remain unclear due to difficulty in detecting small differences between large and variable carbon (C) fluxes needed to determine net changes in soil reservoirs. The diagenetic state of SOC – resulting from the physicochemical and biological transformations that alter the original biomolecular composition of detrital inputs to soil over time – is useful for tracing the net response of SOC at the timescales relevant to climate change not usually discernible from fluxes and stocks alone. Here, we test two hypotheses using a mesic boreal forest climate transect: (1) the SOC diagenetic state is maintained across this climosequence, and (2) the maintenance of the SOC diagenetic state is a consequence of coupled soil C and N cycling, signifying the role of enhanced N cycling supporting SOC inputs that maintain SOC stocks within the warmer-climate forests. Shifts in nonvascular to vascular plant inputs with climate observed in these and other boreal forests highlighted the need to carefully separate biogeochemical indicators of SOC source from those signifying diagenetic alteration. We thus evaluated and applied lignin biomarkers to assess the diagenetic alteration of SOC in these boreal forest organic soils and directly compared the lignin diagenetic state with that of soil organic nitrogen (SON) assessed through amino acid composition. The lignin diagenetic state remained constant across the climate transect, indicating a balance between the input and removal of lignin in these mesic boreal forests. When combined with previous knowledge of these forest ecosystems, including the diagenetic state of SON and direct measures of C fluxes and stocks, the results indicate a coupled increase in C and N cycling with climate warming that supports forest productivity and maintains SOC stocks. This balance could markedly shift as other factors begin to limit forest productivity (e.g., trace nutrients, water) with further climate change or affect forest nutrient allocation (e.g., forest age or compositional change). Further application of the approach presented here could be used to detect the limits of this and other ecosystem–climate feedbacks, by providing a tractable and parameterizable index of the lignin state across large spatial scales, necessary for ecosystem-scale parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensing ultrashort electronic coherent beating at conical intersections by single-electron pulses

In a theoretical study, we present an ultrafast technique for probing time-dependent molecular charge densities. An ultrafast optical pump first brings the molecule into an electronic nonstationary state. This is followed by coherent inelastic scattering of a broadband single-electron probe pulse with a variable delay T, which is detected spectrally. The technique is applied to reveal phase-sensitive background-free coherent electron beating in the conical intersection passage in uracil and reveals the otherwise elusive coherent beating of strongly coupled electrons and nuclei.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A new implementation of the programming system for structural synthesis (PROSSS-2)

This new implementation of the PROgramming System for Structural Synthesis (PROSSS-2) combines a general-purpose finite element computer program for structural analysis, a state-of-the-art optimization program, and several user-supplied, problem-dependent computer programs. The results are flexibility of the optimization procedure, organization, and versatility of the formulation of constraints and design variables. The analysis-optimization process results in a minimized objective function, typically the mass. The analysis and optimization programs are executed repeatedly by looping through the system until the process is stopped by a user-defined termination criterion. However, some of the analysis, such as model definition, need only be one time and the results are saved for future use. The user must write some small, simple FORTRAN programs to interface between the analysis and optimization programs. One of these programs, the front processor, converts the design variables output from the optimizer into the suitable format for input into the analyzer. Another, the end processor, retrieves the behavior variables and, optionally, their gradients from the analysis program and evaluates the objective function and constraints and optionally their gradients. These quantities are output in a format suitable for input into the optimizer. These user-supplied programs are problem-dependent because they depend primarily upon which finite elements are being used in the model. PROSSS-2 differs from the original PROSSS in that the optimizer and front and end processors have been integrated into the finite element computer program. This was done to reduce the complexity and increase portability of the system, and to take advantage of the data handling features found in the finite element program.

Rogers, James L., Jr.↗

The dynamics of three vortices revisited

The dynamics of three vortices was studied by Synge (1949) using the length of the sides of the triangle formed by the vortices as prime variables. The critical states at which the lengths of the sides remain fixed throughout the motion were found to be either equilateral triangles or collinear configurations. The equilateral configurations were either stable or unstable depending on whether the sum of the products of strengths K was greater or less than zero, respectively. In the case of K = 0, a one-parameter family of solutions of contracting and another of expanding similar triangles were found. It is shown here that, for this special case, the family of contracting similar solutions is always unstable while the family of expanding ones is stable. The critical states for collinear configurations in the general case are studied where K is greater than or less than zero. It is shown that there are either six or four critical states depending on the strengths of the vortices. The properties of these states are discussed.

Tavantzis, John↗

A rocket engine design expert system

The overall structure and capabilities of an expert system designed to evaluate rocket engine performance are described. The expert system incorporates a JANNAF standard reference computer code to determine rocket engine performance and a state-of-the-art finite element computer code to calculate the interactions between propellant injection, energy release in the combustion chamber, and regenerative cooling heat transfer. Rule-of-thumb heuristics were incorporated for the hydrogen-oxygen coaxial injector design, including a minimum gap size constraint on the total number of injector elements. One-dimensional equilibrium chemistry was employed in the energy release analysis of the combustion chamber and three-dimensional finite-difference analysis of the regenerative cooling channels was used to calculate the pressure drop along the channels and the coolant temperature as it exits the coolant circuit. Inputting values to describe the geometry and state properties of the entire system is done directly from the computer keyboard. Graphical display of all output results from the computer code analyses is facilitated by menu selection of up to five dependent variables per plot.

Davidian, Kenneth J.↗

A Rocket Engine Design Expert System

The overall structure and capabilities of an expert system designed to evaluate rocket engine performance are described. The expert system incorporates a JANNAF standard reference computer code to determine rocket engine performance and a state of the art finite element computer code to calculate the interactions between propellant injection, energy release in the combustion chamber, and regenerative cooling heat transfer. Rule-of-thumb heuristics were incorporated for the H2-O2 coaxial injector design, including a minimum gap size constraint on the total number of injector elements. One dimensional equilibrium chemistry was used in the energy release analysis of the combustion chamber. A 3-D conduction and/or 1-D advection analysis is used to predict heat transfer and coolant channel wall temperature distributions, in addition to coolant temperature and pressure drop. Inputting values to describe the geometry and state properties of the entire system is done directly from the computer keyboard. Graphical display of all output results from the computer code analyses is facilitated by menu selection of up to five dependent variables per plot.

Davidian, Kenneth J.↗

Real-Time Cloud, Radiation, and Aircraft Icing Parameters from GOES over the USA

A preliminary new, physically based method for realtime estimation of the probability of icing conditions has been demonstrated using merged GOES-10 and 12 data over the continental United States and southern Canada. The algorithm produces pixel-level cloud and radiation properties as well as an estimate of icing probability with an associated intensity rating Because icing depends on so many different variables, such as aircraft size or air speed, it is not possible to achieve 100% success with this or any other type of approach. This initial algorithm, however, shows great promise for diagnosing aircraft icing and putting it at the correct altitude within 0.5 km most of the time. Much additional research must be completed before it can serve as a reliable input for the operational CIP. The delineation of the icing layer vertical boundaries will need to be improved using either the RUC or balloon soundings or ceilometer data to adjust the cloud base height, a change that would require adjustment of the cloud-top altitude also.

Minnis, Patrick↗

The Nustar Spectrum of Mrk 335: Extreme Relativistic Effects Within Two Gravitational Radii of the Event Horizon?

We present 3-50 keV NuSTAR observations of the active galactic nuclei Mrk 335 in a very low flux state. The spectrum is dominated by very strong features at the energies of the iron line at 5-7 keV and Compton hump from 10-30 keV. The source is variable during the observation, with the variability concentrated at low energies, which suggesting either a relativistic reflection or a variable absorption scenario. In this work, we focus on the reflection interpretation, making use of new relativistic reflection models that self consistently calculate the reflection fraction, relativistic blurring and angle-dependent reflection spectrum for different coronal heights to model the spectra. We find that the spectra can be well fitted with relativistic reflection, and that the lowest flux state spectrum is described by reflection alone, suggesting the effects of extreme light-bending occurring within approx. 2 gravitational radii (RG) of the event horizon. The reflection fraction decreases sharply with increasing flux, consistent with a point source moving up to above 10 RG as the source brightens. We constrain the spin parameter to greater than 0.9 at the 3(sigma) confidence level. By adding a spin-dependent upper limit on the reflection fraction to our models, we demonstrate that this can be a powerful way of constraining the spin parameter, particularly in reflection dominated states. We also calculate a detailed emissivity profile for the iron line, and find that it closely matches theoretical predictions for a compact source within a few RG of the black hole.

galaxies: active aEuro" galaxies: individual: Mrk ↗