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At least 253 records · Page 14

INTERMARS: User-controlled international management system

Existing international space law as well as the best interest of all nations are consistent with the establishment of a user-based international organization, herein called INTERMARS. INTERMARS would provide access to facilities and services at a Martian base which would be of high functional potential, quality, safety, and reliability. These opportunities would be available on an open and nondiscriminatory basis to all peaceful users and investors. INTERMARS is a model organization concept tailored to provide cooperative international management of a Martian base for the benefit of its members, users, and investors. Most importantly, INTERMARS would provide such management through a sharing of both sovereignty and opportunity rather then unilateral control by any one nation or set of competing nations. Through an Assembly of Parties, a Board of Governors, a Board of Users and Investors, and a Director General, INTERMARS would meet its primary goal as it would be in the self-interest of all members, users, and investors to do so. The internal structure and philosophy of INTERMARS would provide not only for all participants to have representation in decisions affecting its activities, but also would insure effective and responsive management. Surely this is the precedent wished for, to establish for mankind at the now not-so-distant shores of the new ocean of space.

Schmitt, Harrison H.↗

ATTRACTOR: Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability

Autonomous systems (AS) are crucial to realizing the vision of new, complex transportation modes, such as advanced air mobility (AAM) and urban air mobility (UAM). A chief barrier to induction of AS into aviation is insufficient understanding of AS reliability in time-critical and safety-critical environments—an obstacle to certification. ATTRACTOR is aimed at building a basis for certification of classes of autonomous cyber-physical-human systems (CPHS) via establishing metrics and models of trustworthiness and trust in multi-agent team interactions, analyzable trajectories, explainability of computational algorithms (explainable artificial intelligence, or XAI), and persistent modeling and simulation, in the context of missions planning and operation. By “building a basis for certification,” we mean acquiring an understanding of when a system is trustworthy and developing computable means to estimate trustworthiness and trust in order to eventually inform functional requirements that contribute to certification. The outcomes are applicable not just to aviation but to all domains that rely on autonomous systems.

Autonomy↗

Sustainable Public Transport: Providing Responsive, On-Demand Service with Clean Energy

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) uses the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) as a metric and a lens to guide applied research into high performance public mobility. In the current initiative to abate global warming, the US needs not only zero-emission vehicles in the transit fleet (such as buses and shuttles) but also time- and cost-effective services to connect people with goods, services and employment toward a high-quality of life. Our current transportation system is overly dependent on personally-owned automobiles for high quality mobility, with public modes being less viable in many areas. Simply electrifying the drivetrains of existing public transit modes will fail to improve the quality of mobility for those that do not have access to private automobiles. The slow rebound by transit from the pandemic reveals the need to reinvent public transit service. Using the MEP lens, NREL researchers have tracked various novel developments in the public mobility space, with the confluence of shared, on-demand transit (ODT) services using light duty vehicles emerging as a key enabler of high-efficiency public mobility. Deployments such as those in Arlington, TX, Dallas, TX, Fort Erie, ON, and Innisfil, ON showcase the use of fleets of light-duty vehicles as the basis for community circulation and first/last mile to intra-regional transit. ODT services have demonstrated improvements in being more time efficient for riders, more energy efficient in operation (even before the introduction of fully electric vehicles), as well as being cost effective. It appears that aspects of the long-awaited promise of Personal Rapid Transit from the 1970s are beginning to be realized through ODT deployments, leveraging transportation network company (TNC) logistics, popularized by Uber and Lyft, but applied to public mobility. Currently, manually driven ODT operations are already cost competitive with traditional transit systems on a cost per ride basis, and full automation promises to reduce costs by 50% while providing additional safety and verified customer service. Connecting these ODT systems with efficient and effective intra-regional backbone transit service is the next step, with transit agencies like DART providing early results. This discussion will walk through the evidence for this postulated outcome and show results from a series of case-studies.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Full core LOCA safety analysis for a PWR containing high burnup fuel

For economic reasons, the US nuclear industry is renewing efforts to build a technical basis to extend peak rod average burnup limits above the current regulatory burnup limit of 62 GWd/MTU. The primary driver of these efforts is to economically increase pressurized water reactor (PWR) cycle lengths to 24 months, reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies, increase time online, thereby reducing number of outages and their associated cost, higher fuel utilization, and possibly reduce core design constraints. In order for US nuclear utilities to leverage these economic efficiencies, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will likely require nuclear power plants (NPPs) to analyze a number of potential operational occurrences and their potential consequences with each new core design prior to resuming normal operation. Potential operational occurrences can be divided into three primary regimes: (1) normal operation, (2) anticipated operation occurrences (AOOs), and (3) design basis accidents (DBAs). Normal plant operation is an operating regime in which the plant operates within specified operational limits until the end of the cycle, whereas AOOs are events that result in the NPP deviating outside the normal operating regime. A key attribute of an AOO is that the occurrence should be expected. However, by definition, the occurrence of an AOO does not result in significant impact to critical safety functions. The last potential operational occurrence is a DBA. From the fuel performance point-of-view, DBAs can be subdivided into two bounding categories: (1) loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs), and (2) reactivity insertion accidents (RIAs). Unlike AOOs, DBAs may result in fuel rod failure. The NRC imposes fundamental acceptance criteria to minimize radiological consequences to the public and onsite staff. Furthermore, safety criteria are typically linked to the fulfillment of other acceptance criteria related to reactor safety equipment designed to mitigate DBAs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Decision-Aiding and Optimization for Vertical Navigation of Long-Haul Aircraft

Most decisions made in the cockpit are related to safety, and have therefore been proceduralized in order to reduce risk. There are very few which are made on the basis of a value metric such as economic cost. One which can be shown to be value based, however, is the selection of a flight profile. Fuel consumption and flight time both have a substantial effect on aircraft operating cost, but they cannot be minimized simultaneously. In addition, winds, turbulence, and performance x,ary widely with altitude and time. These factors make it important and difficult for pilots to (a) evaluate the outcomes associated with a particular trajectory before it is flown and (b) decide among possible trajectories. The two elements of this problem considered here are (1) determining, what constitutes optimality, and (2) finding optimal trajectories. Pilots and dispatchers from major U.S. airlines were surveyed to determine which attributes of the outcome of a flight they considered the most important. Avoiding turbulence-for passenger comfort topped the list of items which were not safety related. Pilots' decision making about the selection of flight profile on the basis of flight time, fuel burn, and exposure to turbulence was then observed. Of the several behavioral and prescriptive decision models invoked to explain the pilots' choices, utility maximization is shown to best reproduce the pilots' decisions. After considering more traditional methods for optimizing trajectories, a novel method is developed using a genetic algorithm (GA) operating on a discrete representation of the trajectory search space. The representation is a sequence of command altitudes, and was chosen to be compatible with the constraints imposed by Air Traffic Control, and with the training given to pilots. Since trajectory evaluation for the GA is performed holistically, a wide class of objective functions can be optimized easily. Also, using the GA it is possible to compare the costs associated with different airspace design and air traffic management policies. A decision aid is proposed which would combine the pilot's notion of optimility with the GA-based optimization, provide the pilot with a number of alternative pareto-optimal trajectories, and allow him to consider un-modelled attributes and constraints in choosing among them. A solution to the problem of displaying alternatives in a multi-attribute decision space is also presented.

Patrick, Nicholas J. M.↗

Decision-Aiding and Optimization for Vertical Navigation of Long-Haul Aircraft

Most decisions made in the cockpit are related to safety, and have therefore been proceduralized in order to reduce risk. There are very few which are made on the basis of a value metric such as economic cost. One which can be shown to be value based, however, is the selection of a flight profile. Fuel consumption and flight time both have a substantial effect on aircraft operating cost, but they cannot be minimized simultaneously. In addition, winds, turbulence, and performance vary widely with altitude and time. These factors make it important and difficult for pilots to (a) evaluate the outcomes associated with a particular trajectory before it is flown and (b) decide among possible trajectories. The two elements of this problem considered here are: (1) determining what constitutes optimality, and (2) finding optimal trajectories. Pilots and dispatchers from major u.s. airlines were surveyed to determine which attributes of the outcome of a flight they considered the most important. Avoiding turbulence-for passenger comfort-topped the list of items which were not safety related. Pilots' decision making about the selection of flight profile on the basis of flight time, fuel burn, and exposure to turbulence was then observed. Of the several behavioral and prescriptive decision models invoked to explain the pilots' choices, utility maximization is shown to best reproduce the pilots' decisions. After considering more traditional methods for optimizing trajectories, a novel method is developed using a genetic algorithm (GA) operating on a discrete representation of the trajectory search space. The representation is a sequence of command altitudes, and was chosen to be compatible with the constraints imposed by Air Traffic Control, and with the training given to pilots. Since trajectory evaluation for the GA is performed holistically, a wide class of objective functions can be optimized easily. Also, using the GA it is possible to compare the costs associated with different airspace design and air traffic management policies. A decision aid is proposed which would combine the pilot's notion of optimality with the GA-based optimization, provide the pilot with a number of alternative pareto-optimal trajectories, and allow him to consider unmodelled attributes and constraints in choosing among them. A solution to the problem of displaying alternatives in a multi-attribute decision space is also presented.

Patrick, Nicholas J. M.↗

Implementation of COTs Hardware in Non-Critical Space Applications: A Brief Tutorial

Approaches used for manned applications include limited items such as CD-players evaluated for safety to high criticality applications where the COTs hardware is evaluated on a case-by-case basis for the application and commensurate screening and qualification testing. COTS hardware is successfully implemented in both the International Space Station and Space Shuttle but requires evaluation and modifications for the application. Screening and qualification of COTs hardware used in critical applications may need to be more extensive and stringent than traditional military screening. Evaluation for: a) Suitability for the application; b) Safety; c) Reliability and maintainability; and d) Workmanship.

Yoder, Geoffrey L.↗

Lightning accommodation systems for wind turbine generator safety

The wind turbine safety program identifies the naturally occurring lightning phenomenon as a hazard with the potential to cause loss of program objectives, injure personnel, damage system instrumentation, structure or support equipment and facilities. Several candidate methods of lightning accommodation for each blade were designed, analyzed, and tested by submitting sample blade sections to simulated lightning. Lightning accommodation systems for composite blades were individually developed. Their effectiveness was evaluated by submitting the systems to simulated lightning strikes. The test data were analyzed and system designs were reviewed on the basis of the analysis. This activity is directed at defining design and procedural constraints, requirements for safety devices and warning methods, special procedures, protective equipment and personnel training.

Bankaitis, H.↗

Towards a Rigorous Basis for Specific Operations Risk Assessment of UAS

The Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) guidance represents the consensus of various national aviation authorities on a common process to identify, qualitatively assess, and manage the safety risk posed by unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), when preparing the safety case required for regulatory approval to conduct certain types of operations. As such, it can be considered a de facto standard, being increasingly adopted by various relevant stakeholders. This paper first gives an overview of the SORA process and associated methods, identifying a number of inconsistencies in risk identification and assessment, also discussing plausible strategies to close the associated gaps. Then, we give a well-founded basis for the applicable concepts, such as barrier integrity, assurance, and robustness, following which we present a preliminary and simple probabilistic formalization of the underpinning barrier-based safety model. We illustrate our overall approach through a worked example, also discussing how a Bayesian framework can facilitate extending and enhancing our initial formalization. We conclude with a discussion of the opportunities afforded by our approach, such as a well-founded basis for barrier selection, whilst addressing the associated challenges. The main objective of this work is to complement the current SORA guidance through a principled, mathematicallybased approach to risk assessment, particularly when it is applied to higher-risk operational concepts that warrant greater rigor in safety assessment and assurance.

Safety Cases↗

Aerostructural safety factor criteria

The present modification of the conventional safety factor method for aircraft structures evaluation involves the expression of deterministic safety factors in probabilistic tolerance limit ratios; these are found to involve a total of three factors that control the interference of applied and resistive stress distributions. The deterministic expression is extended so that it may furnish a 'relative ultimate safety' index that encompasses all three distribution factors. Operational reliability is developed on the basis of the applied and the yield stress distribution interferences. Industry standards are suggested to be derivable from factor selections that are based on the consequences of failure.

Verderaime, V.↗

A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗

Life Cycle Systems Engineering Approach to NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd- generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1 -in- 10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. Given a candidate architecture that possesses credible physical processes and realistic technology assumptions, the next set of analyses address the system's functionality across the spread of operational scenarios characterized by the design reference missions. The safety/reliability and cost/economics associated with operating the system will also be modeled and analyzed to answer the questions "How safe is it?" and "How much will it cost to acquire and operate?" The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Thomas, Dale↗

Systems Engineering Approach to Technology Integration for NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1-in-10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. To best direct technology development decisions, analytical models are employed to accurately predict the benefits of each technology toward potential space transportation architectures as well as the risks associated with each technology. Rigorous systems analysis provides the foundation for assessing progress toward safety and cost goals. The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Thomas, Dale↗

Systems Engineering Approach to Technology Integration for NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd-generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1-in-10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. To best direct technology development decisions, analytical models are employed to accurately predict the benefits of each technology toward potential space transportation architectures as well as the risks associated with each technology. Rigorous systems analysis provides the foundation for assessing progress toward safety and cost goals. The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Thomas, Dale↗

A Framework for Probabilistic Evaluation of Interval Management Tolerance in the Terminal Radar Control Area

Projections of future traffic in the national airspace show that most of the hub airports and their attendant airspace will need to undergo significant redevelopment and redesign in order to accommodate any significant increase in traffic volume. Even though closely spaced parallel approaches increase throughput into a given airport, controller workload in oversubscribed metroplexes is further taxed by these approaches that require stringent monitoring in a saturated environment. The interval management (IM) concept in the TRACON area is designed to shift some of the operational burden from the control tower to the flight deck, placing the flight crew in charge of implementing the required speed changes to maintain a relative spacing interval. The interval management tolerance is a measure of the allowable deviation from the desired spacing interval for the IM aircraft (and its target aircraft). For this complex task, Formal Methods can help to ensure better design and system implementation. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic framework to quantify the uncertainty and performance associated with the major components of the IM tolerance. The analytical basis for this framework may be used to formalize both correctness and probabilistic system safety claims in a modular fashion at the algorithmic level in a way compatible with several Formal Methods tools.

Hercencia-Zapana, Heber↗

State-of-the-art and review of condensation heat transfer for small modular reactor passive safety: Experimental studies

Here this study focused on state-of-the-art and review of condensation heat transfer for small modular reactors (SMR). Nuclear reactors adopt passive containment cooling systems (PCCS) for accident mitigation, containment integrity, and primarily to maintain the last barrier for radioactive particle release to the environment during and beyond design-basis accidents. However, improving the effectiveness of the PCCS is more critical for the SMR than for commercial reactors to ensure higher safety margins and compactness. In the PCCS of SMR, due to its smaller size containment, the filmwise condensation (FWC) is dominant. Therefore, this study emphasized the FWC. Earlier condensation studies for the PCCS did not make SMR the primary focus, so a critical review for formulating the state-of-the-art was necessary. Part-1 of this study covered the review of physics phenomena, previous experimental studies with a brief overview of associated test facilities and empirical correlations. This study identified a research gap with the condensation test data scaling relations by using the information and findings of the previous PCCS studies and applied them to the SMR system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A feasibility assessment of nuclear reactor power system concepts for the NASA Growth Space Station

A preliminary feasibility assessment of the integration of reactor power system concepts with a projected growth Space Station architecture was conducted to address a variety of installation, operational, disposition and safety issues. A previous NASA sponsored study, which showed the advantages of Space Station - attached concepts, served as the basis for this study. A study methodology was defined and implemented to assess compatible combinations of reactor power installation concepts, disposal destinations, and propulsion methods. Three installation concepts that met a set of integration criteria were characterized from a configuration and operational viewpoint, with end-of-life disposal mass identified. Disposal destinations that met current aerospace nuclear safety criteria were identified and characterized from an operational and energy requirements viewpoint, with delta-V energy requirement as a key parameter. Chemical propulsion methods that met current and near-term application criteria were identified and payload mass and delta-V capabilities were characterized. These capabilities were matched against concept disposal mass and destination delta-V requirements to provide a feasibility of each combination.

Bloomfield, H. S.↗

A feasibility assessment of installation, operation and disposal options for nuclear reactor power system concepts for a NASA growth space station

A preliminary feasibility assessment of the integration of reactor power system concepts with a projected growth space station architecture was conducted to address a variety of installation, operational disposition, and safety issues. A previous NASA sponsored study, which showed the advantages of space station - attached concepts, served as the basis for this study. A study methodology was defined and implemented to assess compatible combinations of reactor power installation concepts, disposal destinations, and propulsion methods. Three installation concepts that met a set of integration criteria were characterized from a configuration and operational viewpoint, with end-of-life disposal mass identified. Disposal destinations that met current aerospace nuclear safety criteria were identified and characterized from an operational and energy requirements viewpoint, with delta-V energy requirement as a key parameter. Chemical propulsion methods that met current and near-term application criteria were identified and payload mass and delta-V capabilities were characterized. These capabilities were matched against concept disposal mass and destination delta-V requirements to provide the feasibility of each combination.

Bloomfield, Harvey S.↗