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NASA NTRS2005

The QBO as Potential Amplifier and Conduit to Lower Altitudes of Solar Cycle Influence

The solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked observationally to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves. Salby and Callaghan analyzed the QBO observations covering more than 40 years and found that it contains a relatively large SC signature at 20 km. Following up on a 2D study with our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we discuss here a 3D study in which we simulated the QBO under the influence of the SC. For a SC period of 10 years, the amplitude of the relative variations of radiative forcing is taken to vary from 0.2% at the surface to 2% at 50 km to 20% at 100 km and above. This model produces in the lower stratosphere a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which appears to be related to the SC and is in qualitative agreement with the observations. Further studies are needed, (1) to determine whether the effect is real and the results are robust and (2) to explore the mechanism(s) that may amplify the SC effect. Quasi-decadal oscillations, generated internally by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles, may interfere with or aid the SC effect.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Biennial oscillation associated with the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical sea surface temperatures

In this paper, the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall and the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) have been studied. It is found that the EASM rainfall prossesses a strong biennial signal, which is particularly pronounced over the southeast China. For the SST, the biennial oscillation is the second most significant quasi-periodic signal over the entire tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. Results indicate that the biennial variations in the SST and EASM rainfall are closely linked. The SST pattern which is best correlated with EASM rainfall appears in the form of a double see-saw with quasi-stationary centers of action over the Indian Ocean, the Asian monsoon region and the eastern Pacific. The most pronounced SST signals are found in the equatorial eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean about two seasons preceding and following the EASM rainfall. Evidence is presented suggesting that the biennial variability of the EASM rainfall is phase-locked to a global scale biennial oscillation involving the interplay of the Asian monsoon, the Hadley and Walker circulations, and basin wide fluctuations in SST. In particular, the eastward propagation of zonal wind anomalies from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific, which regulates the moisture fluxes from the western Pacific to the East Asian region, appears to be a key component of the biennial fluctuation associated with EASM rainfall. Results suggest that the relationship between the Asian monsoon and tropical SST is more robust in the biennial that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scale, hence raising the possibility that the biennial oscillation may be more fundamentally related to monsoon-ocean-atmosphere interaction than ENSO itself.

Shen, Suhung↗
NASA NTRS2004

Simplifying CEA through Excel, VBA, and Subeq

Many people use compound equilibrium programs for very different reasons, varying from refrigerators to light bulbs to rockets. A commonly used equilibrium program is CEA. CEA can take various inputs such as pressure, temperature, and volume along with numerous reactants and run them through equilibrium equations to obtain valuable output information, including products formed and their relative amounts. A little over a year ago, Bonnie McBride created the program subeq with the goal to simplify the calling of CEA. Subeq was also designed to be called by other programs, including Excel, through the use of Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The largest advantage of using Excel is that it allows the user to input the information in a colorful and user-friendly environment while allowing VBA to run subeq, which is in the form of a FORTRAN DLL (Dynamic Link Library). Calling subeq in this form makes it much faster than if it were converted to VBA. Since subeq requires such large lists of reactant and product names, all of which can't be passed in as an array, subeq had to be changed to accept very long strings of reactants and products. To pass this string and adjust the transfer of input and output parameters, the subeq DLL had to be changed. One program that does this is Compaq Visual FORTRAN, which allows DLLs to be edited, debugged, and compiled. Compaq Visual FORTRAN uses FORTRAN 90/95, which has additional features to that of FORTRAN 77. My goals this summer include finishing up the excel spreadsheet of subeq, which I started last summer, and putting it on the Internet so that others can use it without having to download my spreadsheet. To finish up the spreadsheet I will need to work on debugging current options and problems. I will also work on making it as robust as possible, so that all errors that may arise will be clearly communicated to the user. New features will be added old ones will be changed as I receive comments from people using the spreadsheet. To implement this onto the Internet, I will need to develop an XML input/output format and learn how to write HTML.

Foster, Ryan↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostics Framework Development for Swarm Satellite Formations

Prognostics is the science of predicting the failure(s) of a component or a system and understanding how the performance will change in the event of a failure or degradation mechanism. With accurate predictions of possible failures, autonomous mitigative actions can be taken to correct/repair any issues or alert human operators of a failure threshold exceedance requiring condition-based maintenance. Although there is extensive research on failure predictions for a component or a system, there are significantly more opportunities to foray into failure predictions and prognostics for a system of systems such as an airspace consisting of multiple aircraft, a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, and a swarm of intelligent satellite systems. Failure prediction and mitigation are particularly important in autonomous systems such as satellite swarm systems that need effective resource management and minimal human interactions. Based on NASA's decadal survey, there is a clear need to prioritize the development of satellite swarm technology for studies of space physics and Earth science. The science community will propose future missions that return in-situ measurements from a 3-D (three-dimensional) volume of space, with relative spacecraft motion and inter-satellite baselines controlled according to the mission objectives. For such multi-spacecraft missions, it is required that ground operations resources do not scale with the number of satellites, thus compromising the swarm or leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation. Swarms of tens or hundreds of small satellites will require autonomy in attitude control, navigation and failure. Although significant research has been conducted in the areas of autonomous formation flying algorithms, less attention has been given to the development of resilient systems robust to failures.The focus of this research paper is the integration of model-based prognostics into the swarm dynamics control and decision-making algorithms. We simulate swarm management strategies for a subsystem failure to demonstrate the importance of failure predictions by comparing two cases: (i) no health information is provided to the system and utilized in the decision-making process and (2) system health information is obtained using prognostics and employed by the control system. One example scenario presented is for the GPS (Global Positioning System) system of an individual satellite to perform off-nominally due to increasing estimated error. In this scenario, the keep-out zone for that satellite would become more conservative, thereby decreasing the risk of collision. This is achieved via tuning the individual artificial repulsive functions assigned to each satellite.This paper is structured as follows. First we provide an overview of current swarm technology development, where we specifically use the term swarm to define multiple satellites flying in formation in similar orbits, with cross-link communication and station-keeping capabilities. Second, we give an introduction to the Swarm Orbital Dynamics Advisor (SODA), a tool that accepts high-level configuration commands and provides the orbital maneuvers required to achieve the prescribed formation configuration. Third, we provide the details of the model-based prognostics algorithm implementation in SODA. Finally, we present different case studies for potential component/subsystem failures and the swarm responses based with and without failure prediction information.

prognostics↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aerosol-Induced Changes of Convective Cloud Anvils Produce Strong Climate Warming

The effect of aerosol on clouds poses one of the largest uncertainties in estimating the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Small human-induced perturbations to cloud characteristics via aerosol pathways can create a change in the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing of hundreds of Wm(exp-2) . Here we focus on links between aerosol and deep convective clouds of the Atlantic and Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones, noting that the aerosol environment in each region is entirely different. The tops of these vertically developed clouds consisting of mostly ice can reach high levels of the atmosphere, overshooting the lower stratosphere and reaching altitudes greater than 16 km. We show a link between aerosol, clouds and the free atmosphere wind profile that can change the magnitude and sign of the overall climate radiative forcing. We find that increased aerosol loading is associated with taller cloud towers and anvils. The taller clouds reach levels of enhanced wind speeds that act to spread and thin the anvi1 clouds, increasing areal coverage and decreasing cloud optical depth. The radiative effect of this transition is to create a positive radiative forcing (warming) at top-of-atmosphere. Furthermore we introduce the cloud optical depth (r), cloud height (Z) forcing space and show that underestimation of radiative forcing is likely to occur in cases of non homogenous clouds. Specifically, the mean radiative forcing of towers and anvils in the same scene can be several times greater than simply calculating the forcing from the mean cloud optical depth in the scene. Limitations of the method are discussed, alternative sources of aerosol loading are tested and meteorological variance is restricted, but the trend of taller clouds; increased and thinner anvils associated with increased aerosol loading remains robust through all the different tests and perturbations.

Koren, I.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Aerogel-Based Multilayer Insulation with Micrometeoroid Protection

Ultra-low-density, highly hydrophobic, fiber-reinforced aerogel material integrated with MLI (aluminized Mylar reflectors and B4A Dacron separators) offers a highly effective insulation package by providing unsurpassed thermal performance and significant robustness, delivering substantial MMOD protection via the addition of a novel, durable, external aerogel layer. The hydrophobic nature of the aerogel is an important property for maintaining thermal performance if the material is exposed to the environment (i.e. rain, snow, etc.) during ground installations. The hybrid aerogel/MLI/MMOD solution affords an attractive alternative because it will perform thermally in the same range as MLI at all vacuum levels (including high vacuum), and offers significant protection from micrometeoroid damage. During this effort, the required low-density and resilient aerogel materials have been developed that are needed to optimize the thermal performance for space (high vacuum) cryotank applications. The proposed insulation/MMOD package is composed of two sections: a stack of interleaved aerogel layers and MLI intended for cryotank thermal insulation, and a 1.5- to 1-in. (.2.5- to 3.8- cm) thick aerogel layer (on top of the insulation portion) for MMOD protection. Learning that low-density aerogel cannot withstand the hypervelocity impact test conditions, the innovators decided during the course of the program to fabricate a high-density and strong material based on a cross-linked aerogel (X-aerogel; developed elsewhere by the innovators) for MMOD protection. This system has shown a very high compressive strength that is capable of withstanding high-impact tests if a proper configuration of the MMOD aerogel layer is used. It was learned that by stacking two X-aerogel layers [1.5-in. (.3.8-cm) thick] separated by an air gap, the system would be able to hold the threat at a speed of 5 km/s and gpass h the test. The first aerogel panel stopped the projectile from damaging the second aerogel panel. The impacted X-aerogel (the back specimen from the successful test) was further tested in comparison to another similar sample (not impacted) at Kennedy Space Center for thermal conductivity evaluation at cryogenic conditions. The specimens were tested under high vacuum and cryogenic temperatures, using Cryostat 500. The results show that the specimen did not lose a significant amount of thermal performance due to the impact test, especially at high vacuum.

Begag, Redouane↗
NASA NTRS2009

Linear Actuator Has Long Stroke and High Resolution

The term precision linear actuator, direct drive ( PLADD ) refers to a robust linear actuator designed to be capable of repeatedly performing, over a lifetime of the order of 5 to 10 years, positioning maneuvers that include, variously, submicron increments or slews of the order of a centimeter. The PLADD is capable of both long stroke (120 mm) and high resolution (repeatable increments of 20 nm). Unlike precise linear actuators of prior design, the PLADD contains no gears, levers, or hydraulic converters. The PLADD, now at the prototype stage of development, is intended for original use as a coarse-positioning actuator in a spaceborne interferometer. The PLADD could also be adapted to terrestrial applications in which there are requirements for long stroke and high resolution: potential applications include medical imaging and fabrication of semiconductor devices. The PLADD (see figure) includes a commercially available ball-screw actuator driven directly by a commercially available three-phase brushless DC motor. The ball-screw actuator comprises a spring-preloaded ball nut on a ball screw that is restrained against rotation as described below. The motor is coupled directly (that is, without an intervening gear train) to a drive link that, in turn, is coupled to the ball nut. By eliminating the gear train, the direct-drive design eliminates the complexity, backlash, and potential for misalignment associated with a gear train. To prevent inadvertent movement, there is a brake that includes flexured levers compressed against the drive link by preload springs. This is a power-off brake: There are also piezoelectric stacks that can be activated to oppose the springs and push the levers away from the drive link. Hence, power must be applied to the piezoelectric stacks to release the drive link from braking. To help ensure long operational life, all of the mechanical drive components are immersed in an oil bath within hermetically sealed bellows. The outer end of the bellows holds the outer end of the ball screw, thereby preventing rotation of the ball screw. Positioning is controlled by an electronic control system that includes digital and analog subsystems that interact with the motor and brake and with two sensor/encoder units: a Hall-effect-sensor rotation encoder and a linear glass-scale encoder. This system implements a proportional + integral + derivative control algorithm that results in variation of voltage commands to each of the three pairs of windings of the brushless DC motor. In one of two alternative control modes, the voltages are applied to the windings in a trapezoidal commutation scheme on the basis of timing signals obtained from the Hall-effect sensors; this scheme yields relatively coarse positioning - 24 steps per motor revolution. The second control mode involves a sinusoidal commutation scheme in which the output of the linear glass-scale encoder is transposed to rotational increments to yield much finer position feedback - more than 400,000 steps per revolution.

Cook, Brant T.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Impacts of ENSO on the South American Summer Monsoon During 1997-1999

Using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis, and CPC Merged Analysis Product (CMAP) rainfall, we have compared and contrasted the anomalies of the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) during two extreme years of 1997/98 (EI Nino) and 1998/99 (La Nina). The results are assessed against a "canonical" ENSO response (CER) pattern for the SASM obtained from empirical mode decomposition based on a previous period (1980-1995). Overall, the SASM anomalies compare well with CER, but with some important differences. Anomalies occurring in the warm phase of the 1997-98 El Nino are very significant and robust, while those occurring in 1998/99 La Nina, appear to be reversed from 1997/98, but are relatively weak and less well-defined. The most pronounced signal in DJF 1997/98 is the development of drought conditions in northern Brazil, excessive rainfall over northern Peru and Ecuador, and over Uruguay and southern Brazil. The tropical rainfall anomalies are associated with the eastward shift of the Walker circulation, which is represented by pronounced low-level anomalous westerlies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and easterlies over northern Brazil. The easterlies are deflected sharply southeastward by the steep topography of the Andes, enhancing the low-level jet (LLJ) along the eastern foothills of the Andes near 15-20 S. The LLJ penetrates deep into the extratropics, yielding rainfall anomalies further poleward compared to CER. During DJF 1997/98, the eastward expansion of the warm tropospheric temperature over the Nino-3 region causes anomalous geopotential height to develop in the upper troposphere above the Altiplano, leading to a strengthened Bolivian High. An upper-tropospheric jet anomaly maximum is found over the subtropical continent near 30 S, due to increasing meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature, as well as teleconnection patterns linking the South Pacific and the South Atlantic. Consistent with the CER, the South Pacific High is weakened, and the South Atlantic High is strengthened in DJF 1997/98. However, rather than appearing as a coherent large scale signal over the entire Atlantic as in CER, the South Atlantic High anomalies in DJF 1997/98 split into two separate high pressure centers; one located south of the Amazon basin, and another over the southeastern South Atlantic. The former is induced as a Rossby-wave response by ENSO-Induced sinking motion over nor-them and eastern Brazil, and the latter may be associated with extratropical teleconnection signals. Anomalous convection observed over equatorial western Africa may also have contributed to the different circulation response over the Atlantic in DFJ 1997/99 compared to the CER. Comparison of the evolution of the SASM anomalies in 1997-99 with their corresponding annual cycles, suggest that the anomalies are phase-locked to and represent either enhancement or reduction of the annual variations. Results suggest that, from a system perspective the SASM was strengthened during the 1997/98 El Nino and weakened, albeit to a lesser extent, during the 1998/99 La Nina.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Carbon Consumption Database for Wildland Fire

Fire plays a significant role on both national and global scales, profoundly impacting landscapes shaped by human activity as well as those left wild. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes. Fires can also serve to reduce fuels to mitigate wildfire risk and maintain healthy ecosystem functions. However, the smoke produced by fires, regardless of their size or purpose, can pose adverse effects on human health when inhaled downwind. Understanding the influence of smoke on air quality and human well-being necessitates the quantification of emissions that fires release into the atmosphere. In response to this need, we have established a comprehensive global consumption database directly linked to distinct fuels within various fire danger categories. This database, featuring a spatial resolution of approximately 300 meters, builds upon the foundations of the Pettinari, M. Lucrecia (2015) Global Fuelbed database, a global fuel map with standardized Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) biomass parameters. Consumption is broken down into five Fire Danger categories (Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme), for both ‘new’ and ‘residual’ burning scenarios. We define ‘residual burned area’ as area burning in a region that has burned on a previous day for the same fire season, and ‘new burned area’ as area burning in a region that has not recently burned. This product serves as a valuable tool when used in conjunction with burned area data to rapidly estimate the carbon consumed and released into the atmosphere. Previously, we developed a similar emissions method utilizing satellite information, in conjunction with the FCCS 30-meter United States fuelbed dataset. We implemented this approach on fires, documented during the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign to estimate daily carbon emissions. Our emissions estimates were rigorously compared against in-situ measurements of CO2, CO, and black carbon aerosols, revealing a robust agreement between the two datasets.

Emily Gargulinski↗
NASA NTRS2007

NASA Tech Briefs, May 2007

Topics include: Noise-Canceling Helmet Audio System; Program Analyzes Spacecraft/Ground Radio Links; Two-Way Communication Using RFID Equipment and Techniques; Six-Message Electromechanical Display System; Scanning Terahertz Heterodyne Imaging Systems; Master Clock and Time-Signal-Distribution System; Synchronous Phase-Resolving Flash Range Imaging; Integrated Radial Probe Transition From MMIC to Waveguide; Bar-Code System for a Microbiological Laboratory; MMIC Amplifier Produces Gain of 10 dB at 235 GHz; Mapping Nearby Terrain in 3D by Use of a Grid of Laser Spots; Digital Beam Deflectors Based Partly on Liquid Crystals; Narrow-Band WGM Optical Filters With Tunable FSRs; Better Finite-Element Analysis of Composite Shell Structures; Computing Spacecraft-Pointing Vectors for Limb Tracking; Enhanced Master Controller Unit Tester; Rover Graphical Simulator; Increasing Durability of Flame-Sprayed Strain Gauges; Multifunctional, High-Temperature Nanocomposites; Multilayer Impregnated Fibrous Thermal Insulation Tiles; Radiation-Shielding Polymer/Soil Composites; Film/Adhesive Processing Module for Fiber-Placement Processing of Composites; Fabrication of Submillimeter Axisymmetric Optical Components; Electrochemical Disposal of Hydrazines in Water; Statistical Model of Evaporating Multicomponent Fuel Drops; Resistively Heated SiC Nozzle for Generating Molecular Beams; Compact Packaging of Photonic Millimeter-Wave Receiver; Diffractive Combiner of Single-Mode Pump Laser-Diode Beams; Wide-Band, High-Quantum-Efficiency Photodetector; A Robustly Stabilizing Model Predictive Control Algorithm; Modeling Evaporation of Drops of Different Kerosenes; Development of Vapor-Phase Catalytic Ammonia Removal System; Several Developments in Space Tethers; Design Concept for a Nuclear Reactor-Powered Mars Rover; Formation-Initialization Algorithm for N Spacecraft; and DNSs of Multicomponent Gaseous and Drop-Laden Mixing Layers Achieving Transition to Turbulence.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2005

The QBO as Potential Amplifier and Conduit to Lower Altitudes of Solar Cycle Influence

In several papers, the solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves. Salby and Callaghan (2000) analyzed the observed zonal winds of the QBO over more than 40 years and found that it contains a relatively large SC signature at 20 km. Following up on an earlier 2D study with our global-scale Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we discuss here a 3D study with the QBO under the influence of the SC. For a SC period of 10 years, the amplitude of the relative variations of radiative forcing is taken to vary for simplicity from 0.2% at the surface to 2% at 50 km to 20% at 100 km and above. Covering a limited time span of 40 years, this model produces in the lower stratosphere a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which appears to be related to the SC and is in qualitative agreement with the observations. Some of the energy in the QBO, confined to low latitudes primarily, is redistributed globally by the meridional circulation and planetary waves presumably, so that a measurable SC modulation is generated in the tropospheric temperatures of the polar regions. Further studies are needed, (1) to determine whether the effect is real and prevails in more extensive simulations and whether the results are robust when shorter integration steps are employed, and (2) to explore the mechanism(s) that may ample the apparent SC influence of the UV radiation extending into the lower atmosphere. Quasi-decadal oscillations, generated internally by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles, may interfere with or aid the SC effect.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Physics and Modeling of Quasi-Steady and Forced Shock Trains

The dual-mode scramjet is a propulsive concept for contemporary hypersonic vehicles promising flight cruise speeds upwards of Mach 5. Despite decades of development and a recent resurgence in interest, such engines are not routinely deployed for commercial or military purposes. Instead, they have been confined to the realm of ground-test research and limited one-off flight test missions. One of the key stumbling blocks on the critical path to deployment of a dual-mode scramjet is the optimal design and stable operation of the isolator, a typically constant area duct that separates the scramjet inlet from the combustor. During ramjet mode at Mach numbers from 3 to 5 and during the transition to scramjet mode at higher Mach numbers, the isolator contains the pseudo-shock. Necessary to meet the back-pressure in the combustor, the pseudo-shock is typically divided into a shock dominated shock train region followed by a turbulence driven mixing region. Fluctuations in combustor pressure due to vehicle maneuvering, throttling, or combustion instabilities drive the shock train to shift streamwise within the isolator. In response to sharp pressure fluctuations, the shock train is unable to stabilize within the isolator, and the scramjet unstarts by ejecting the shock train out the inlet. This work addresses three key gaps in understanding of the isolator pseudo-shock. The phenomenon is studied in three experimental facilities to investigate the quasi-steady and unsteady fluid dynamics of the shock train in fueled and un-fueled test conditions. The strong link between boundary layer morphology and shock train structure is studied in detail and used as a tool to evaluate the state-of-the-art definitions and models of the pseudo-shock. Identifying the limitations of these models, a new process driven flux-conserved pseudo-shock model is proposed. This provides a computationally efficient model grounded in the fluid dynamic mechanisms of the pseudo-shock with better predictive capability than the current state-of-the-art across all facilities tested. The unsteady behavior of the shock train is further investigated to identify and understand two distinct forced dynamic modes: mechanically induced, low-rate forcing and high-rate combustion driven unsteadiness that sheds upstream propagating shocks. The proposed process driven model is found to be effective in the the limiting case of high-rate combustion driven unsteadiness by evaluating the model in a shock stationary reference frame. Further analysis identifies the approximately rigid chain motion of the shock train structure to mechanically induced forcing. The time delay between the onset of forced dynamics is found to saturate to a constant value and maximum shock train speed along the isolator with respect to the perturbation rate of change. The result of this work provides dual-mode scramjet designers with improved tools and physical understanding to develop more efficient, robust, and capable propulsion systems for hypersonic vehicles.

JAXA↗
NASA NTRS1997

Atmospheric Angular Momentum Fluctuations During 1979-1988 Simulated by Global Circulation Models

Changes in major global dynamical phenomena in the Earth's atmosphere are manifested in the time series of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), as determined directly from meteorological observations and indirectly from geodetic observations of small fluctuations in the rotation of the solid Earth which are proportional to length of day. AAM fluctuations are intimately linked with energetic processes throughout the whole atmosphere and also with the stresses at the Earth's surface produced largely by turbulent momentum transport in the oceanic and continental boundary layers and by the action of normal pressure forces on orographic features. A stringent test of any numerical global circulation model (GCM) is therefore provided by a quantitative assessment of its ability to represent AAM fluctuations on all relevant timescales, ranging from months to several years. From monthly data provided by the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme, we have investigated seasonal and interannual fluctuations and the decadal mean in the axial component of AAM in 23 AMIP GCMs over the period 1979-1988. The decadal means are generally well simulated, with the model median value (1.58 x 10(exp 26) kg sq m/s) being only 3.5% larger than the observed mean and with 10 of the models being within 5% of the observed. The seasonal cycle is well reproduced, with the median amplitude of the models seasonal standard deviations being only 2.4% larger than observed. Half the seasonal amplitudes lie within 15% of the observed, and the median correlation found between the observed and model seasonal cycles is 0.95. The dominant seasonal error is an underestimation of AAM during northern hemisphere winter associated with errors in the position of subtropical jets. Less robust are the modeled interannual variations, although the median correlation of 0.61 between model simulations and observed AAM is statistically significant. The two El Nino-Southem Oscillation events that occurred during the AMIP decade 1979-1988 have the expected positive AAM anomalies, although the AAM signature of the 1982-1983 event tends to be underestimated and that of the 1986-1987 event overestimated.

Hide, R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Kopp, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Atmospheric Angular Momentum Fluctuations During 1979-1988 Simulated by Global Circulation Models

Changes in major global dynamical phenomena in the Earth's atmosphere are manifested in the time series of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), as determined directly from meteorological observations and indirectly from geodetic observations of small fluctuations in the rotation of the solid Earth which are proportional to length of day. AAM fluctuations are intimately linked with energetic processes throughout the whole atmosphere and also with the stresses at the Earth's surface produced largely by turbulent momentum transport in the oceanic and continental boundary layers and by the action of normal pressure forces on orographic features. A stringent test of any numerical global circulation model (GCM) is therefore provided by a quantitative assessment of its ability to represent AAM fluctuations on all relevant timescales, ranging from months to several years. From monthly data provided by the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme, we have investigated seasonal and interannual fluctuations and the decadal mean in the axial component of AAM in 23 AMIP GCMs over the period 1979-1 988. The decadal means are generally well simulated, with the model median value (1.58 x 10(exp 26) kg sq m/s) being only 3.5% larger than the observed mean and with 10 of the models being within 5% of the observed. The seasonal cycle is well reproduced, with the median amplitude of the models' seasonal standard deviations being only 2.4% larger than observed. Half the seasonal amplitudes lie within 15% of the observed, and the median correlation found between the observed and model seasonal cycles is 0.95. The dominant seasonal error is an under- estimation of AAM during northern hemisphere winter associated with errors in the position of subtropical jets. Less robust are the modeled interannual variations, although the median correlation of 0.61 between model simulations and observed AAM is statistically significant. The two El Nino-Southern Oscillation events that occurred during the AMIP decade 1979-1988 have the expected positive AAM anomalies, although the AAM signature of the 1982-1983 event tends to be underestimated and that of the 1986-1987 event overestimated.

Hide, R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Problem Reporting System

The Problem Reporting System (PRS) is a Web application, running on two Web servers (load-balanced) and two database servers (RAID-5), which establishes a system for submission, editing, and sharing of reports to manage risk assessment of anomalies identified in NASA's flight projects. PRS consolidates diverse anomaly-reporting systems, maintains a rich database set, and incorporates a robust engine, which allows tracking of any hardware, software, or paper process by configuring an appropriate life cycle. Global and specific project administration and setup tools allow lifecycle tailoring, along with customizable controls for user, e-mail, notifications, and more. PRS is accessible via the World Wide Web for authorized user at most any location. Upon successful log-in, the user receives a customizable window, which displays time-critical 'To Do' items (anomalies requiring the user s input before the system moves the anomaly to the next phase of the lifecycle), anomalies originated by the user, anomalies the user has addressed, and custom queries that can be saved for future use. Access controls exist depending on a user's role as system administrator, project administrator, user, or developer, and then, further by association with user, project, subsystem, company, or item with provisions for business-to-business exclusions, limitations on access according to the covert or overt nature of a given project, all with multiple layers of filtration, as needed. Reporting of metrics is built in. There is a provision for proxy access (in which the user may choose to grant one or more other users to view screens and perform actions as though they were the user, during any part of a tracking life cycle - especially useful during tight build schedules and vacations to keep things moving). The system also provides users the ability to have an anomaly link to or notify other systems, including QA Inspection Reports, Safety, GIDEP (Government-Industry Data Exchange Program) Alert, Corrective Actions, and Lessons Learned. The PRS tracking engine was designed as a very extensible and scalable system, able to support additional applications, with future development possibilities already discussed, including Incident Surprise Anomalies (for anomalies occurring during Operations phases of NASA Flight projects), GIDEP and NASA Alerts, and others.

Potter, Don↗
NASA NTRS2011

Performance Comparison of Wireless Sensor Network Standard Protocols in an Aerospace Environment: ISA100.11a and ZigBee

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) can provide a substantial benefit in spacecraft systems, reducing launch weight and providing unprecedented flexibility by allowing instrumentation capabilities to grow and change over time. Achieving data transport reliability on par with that of wired systems, however, can prove extremely challenging in practice. Fortunately, much progress has been made in developing standard WSN radio protocols for applications from non-critical home automation to mission-critical industrial process control. The relative performances of candidate protocols must be compared in representative aerospace environments, however, to determine their suitability for spaceflight applications. In this paper, we will present the results of a rigorous laboratory analysis of the performance of two standards-based, low power, low data rate WSN protocols: ZigBee Pro and ISA100.11a. Both are based on IEEE 802.15.4 and augment that standard's specifications to build complete, multi-hop networking stacks. ZigBee Pro targets primarily the home and office automation markets, providing an ad-hoc protocol that is computationally lightweight and easy to implement in inexpensive system-on-a-chip components. As a result of this simplicity, however, ZigBee Pro can be susceptible to radio frequency (RF) interference. ISA100.11a, on the other hand, targets the industrial process control market, providing a robust, centrally-managed protocol capable of tolerating a significant amount of RF interference. To achieve these gains, a coordinated channel hopping mechanism is employed, which entails a greater computational complexity than ZigBee and requires more sophisticated and costly hardware. To guide future aerospace deployments, we must understand how well these standards relatively perform in analog environments under expected operating conditions. Specifically, we are interested in evaluating goodput -- application level throughput -- in a representative crewed environment in the presence of varying levels of 802.11g Wi-Fi traffic. To do so, we use the NASA Johnson Space Center Wireless Habitat Testbed (WHT), a metallic, habitation-sized module designed for co-existence testing of wireless systems. In its quiescent state, the sealed WHT provides an RF-quiet environment to which we can selectively add interfering systems; it also provides a realistic level of multi-path self-interference for systems under investigation. In our test, we deploy two representative five node networks, configured in a star topology with all nodes reporting directly to a WSN gateway. Each ZigBee network WSN node is built using a Texas Instruments (TI) CC2530 system-on-a-chip radio running TI's ZigBee Pro Z-stack. Each ISA100.11a network node is built using a Nivis VersaNode 210 system-on-a-chip radio. In both cases, radios interface with TI MSP430-F5438 microcontroller implementing a common test application. Interference is provided by a D-link 802.11g Wi-Fi router transporting traffic generated using the Iperf network testing tool. For the single-channel ZigBee network, effects of both direct and indirect Wi-Fi interference are evaluated. For the channel-hopping ISA100.11a network, effects of interference from multiple Wi-Fi routers configured in non-overlapping 802.11g channels are evaluated. Our results show that, in general, the more lightweight ZigBee network performs well at low interference levels, but performance degrades as interference increases. Conversely, the more complex and costly ISA100.11a network continues to perform well as Wi-Fi interference levels increase.

Wagner, Raymond S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗