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At least 253 records · Page 14

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DOE OSTI2021

Farmer characteristics and decision-making: A model for bioenergy crop adoption

We report the commercial development of biofuels and bioproducts depends on whether renewable biomass feedstock is available while not directly competing with the production of food. Farmers are one of the most important stakeholders in the biofuel supply chain and confront a range of uncertainties while entering the bioenergy market. Their decision-making process is extremely complex and rarely purely rational. Modeling farmer behavior requires considering a wide range of individual-level factors, socio-temporal dynamics, institutional settings, and their interactions. These characteristics make agent-based modeling a suitable framework for evaluating such systems. We developed a model to simulate farmer bioenergy crop adoption behavior across a 50-county study region in Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado. The analysis considers adoption decisions for two bioenergy feedstocks, crop residues and energy crops. We examine the influence of individual and farm characteristics, market structure, social networks, and media influence on farmer adoption decisions. Our results indicate that different factors can have varied impacts on the speed of adoption for the crop residues and energy crops. Identifying levers that have the most impact on grower adoption can inform the design of interventions both from policy and private sector standpoints with important implications for the future the bioenergy industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17–18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17-18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data Validation for Hosting Capacity Analyses

The usefulness of Hosting Capacity Analysis (HCA) is dependent on users' confidence that the results accurately reflect grid conditions. This report provides the findings and recommendations from research, conducted by The National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) and The Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC), into HCA data validation best practices. The goal is to provide utilities, regulators, and stakeholders best practices for HCA data validation procedures so that future HCA deployments avoid uncertainties and potential mistakes from earlier rollouts and provide useful and accurate data from the day they are published. Utilities can use this report to develop or refine their HCA data validation procedures. Regulators can use the report to inform their oversight of utilities' HCA data validation practices, while stakeholders can use it to evaluate the effectiveness of utility efforts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data Validation for Hosting Capacity Analyses: Executive Summary

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Regridding uncertainty for statistical downscaling of solar radiation

Abstract. Initial steps in statistical downscaling involve being able to compare observed data from regional climate models (RCMs). This prediction requires (1) regridding RCM outputs from their native grids and at differing spatial resolutions to a common grid in order to be comparable to observed data and (2) bias correcting RCM data, for example via quantile mapping, for future modeling and analysis. The uncertainty associated with (1) is not always considered for downstream operations in (2). This work examines this uncertainty, which is not often made available to the user of a regridded data product. This analysis is applied to RCM solar radiation data from the NA-CORDEX (North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) data archive and observed data from the National Solar Radiation Database housed at the National Renewable Energy Lab. A case study of the mentioned methods over California is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Resource Availability in California in a Changing Climate

Wildfires can emit large amounts of atmospheric particulate matters and influence not only air quality but also availability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to scattering and absorption of solar radiation. Under anthropogenic changing climate, wildfire activity is projected to increase over western North America due to drier and warmer climate, implying increasing impact on solar resource and larger uncertainty in solar generation especially in regions with faster PV penetration. This study focuses on quantifying the impact of wildfires on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and thus solar resource over California using National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This assessment includes historical analysis and estimation of solar resource under wildfire scenarios (2020 wildfire and an enhanced wildfire scenario based on 2020 wildfires). Historical analysis for the period of July-October 2019/2020 (low/high fire activity period) shows that the averaged global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are reduced by about 30 and 90 W m-2 (5.6 and 15.3%), respectively, during high fire activity period. To create AOD dataset for enhanced fire scenario, 165% increase in burn area (in around 2050) is selected based on comprehensive literature review, which is further applied to the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) fire emission. WRF-Chem model with the enhanced FINN emissions is used to simulate and represent a preserving spatial distribution of burned areas and wildfire-emitted aerosols. Our initial analysis suggests that the"enhanced 2020 wildfire" AOD can increase by a factor of 1.3 - 2, which can significantly reduce solar irradiance and increase uncertainty in generation and reliability of power system in extreme wildfire events under a high solar penetration scenario. Overall, this study provides an estimate of the impacts of wildfires on solar resource to make informed decisions on reserve planning, generation scheduling, and reliability investments.

aerosol optical depth↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling investment decisions from heterogeneous firms under imperfect information and risk in wholesale electricity markets

Not Available

Anwar, Muhammad Bashar (ORCID:0000000291846700)↗

DOE OSTI2021

How structural differences influence cross-model consistency: An electric sector case study

Multiple models are often employed to describe a range of possible outcomes for one or more scenarios, yielding insights into causal relationships and their uncertainties. Electric sector capacity expansion scenarios are a common topic of such efforts due to the economic influence of the electric sector, but model results typically span a broad solution space despite efforts to harmonize input assumptions, making decision implications difficult to discern. This study investigates the relationship between input harmonization and cross-model scenario consistency under disparate electric sector scenarios. We compare cross-model consistency between two state-of-the-art electric sector capacity expansion models (GCAM-USA and ReEDS) for six electric sector scenarios comprising alternate assumptions about fossil fuel resource availability, technology innovation, and long-term economy-wide transitions under four harmonization configurations varying model representations of electricity demand, fuel prices, renewable resources, and capacity retirements. These comparisons reveal that cross-model consistency can vary across scenarios under a given harmonization configuration, suggesting that harmonization efforts must often be scenario-specific if comparable cross-model consistency is desired. Model structural differences can hinder consistency, and the impact of these differences can depend on the scenario. Ultimately, thorough harmonization can reveal insights into cross-model consistency, which can be used to tighten uncertainty bounds and improve the decision-making implications of multi-model activities.

Cohen, Stuart↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Prediction Error for Time-dependent Solar Radiation Modeling

Numerical weather forecasting models and statistical methods have found wide use to help power companies estimate renewable output, but better methods are needed, particularly for extended forecasts. Machine learning approaches have been used here as well, but so far a major limitation is the ability to also predict the corresponding uncertainty in a forecast. Here we show that both can be done and demonstrate this using a long-term-short memory neural network where the difference between predicted and ground truth data are used to train a model for the corresponding forecast uncertainties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

a priori uncertainty quantification of reacting turbulence closure models using Bayesian neural networks

While many physics-based closure model forms have been posited for the sub-filter scale (SFS) in large eddy simulation (LES), vast amounts of data available from direct numerical simulations (DNS) create opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques. Albeit flexible, data-driven models still depend on the dataset and the functional form of the model chosen. Increased adoption of such models requires reliable uncertainty estimates both in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. Here, in this work, we employ Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in a reacting flow model. In particular, we model the filtered progress variable scalar dissipation rate which plays a key role in the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames. We demonstrate that BNN models can provide unique insights about the structure of uncertainty of the data-driven closure models. We also propose a method for the incorporation of out-of-distribution information in a BNN, which can be used for out-of-distribution query detection. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated by a priori evaluation on a dataset consisting of a variety of flame conditions and fuels.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Emission Assessments of Solar and Energy Efficiency Improvements at Small Water Resource Recovery Facilities

Small water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) account for the majority of centralized systems in the world and have higher energy intensities than large facilities. This study compares potential greenhouse gas emission reductions based on on-site solar energy and energy efficiency (E2) improvements made at small WRRFs. Case study data from 31 existing small WRRFs in Nebraska were collected and included 35 site-specific energy efficiency (E2) recommendations and on-site solar renewable energy systems integrated at three facilities, and the data were used to compare the benefits of on-site solar energy and E2 improvements made at small WRRFs. Improvements in E2 (e.g., improved aeration control) presented the largest reduction in emissions per dollar invested. They often exhibited shorter paybacks, with operational changes in aeration strategies showing the highest impact (up to 0.2 kg CO2eq/m3 treated water). On-site solar systems showed the largest net potential for reducing environmental footprint (0.35 kg CO2eq/m3) but often showed the smallest emissions reduction per cost. While the use of both E2 improvements and the integration of on-site solar renewable energy can significantly improve the sustainability of small WRRFs, on-site solar has advantages for small facilities in that it often requires less operational involvement, allows for greater facility resiliency, and presents less uncertainty in terms of environmental benefit.

Thompson, Matthew↗

DOE OSTI2025

A review of future weather data for assessing climate change impacts on buildings and energy systems

The effectiveness of climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies depend on the availability of high-quality future weather data. However, significant gaps exist between the needs of the energy research community and the focus of the climate modeling community, primarily due to a historical lack of communication and collaboration between the two groups. Here, to address this issue, this work provides a comprehensive overview of the critical aspects involved in creating future weather data for building and energy system modeling, including emissions scenarios, general circulation models, downscaling methods, categories of future weather data, and uncertainties in climate simulations. Moreover, it critically evaluates the applicability and suitability of various types of future weather data in five key application scenarios: energy use analysis, resilience analysis, HVAC design, utility-scale analysis, and renewable energy analysis. Finally, this work presents recommendations for high-level actions and research directions to foster collaboration between the energy research and climate modeling communities and to promote the integration of future weather data into energy codes and the design practices of buildings and energy systems.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Unit Commitment: Model Reduction via Learning

As weather-dependent renewable generation increases its share in the generation mix of most electric energy systems, a stochastic unit commitment becomes the natural day-ahead scheduling tool. However, such a tool is generally computationally intractable if a detailed uncertainty description is considered. Taking this into account, we proposed a learning method to make the stochastic unit commitment problem tractable. Here, recent advances in statistical learning and machine learning to address optimization problems can be advantageously applied to the rather intractable stochastic unit commitment problem. Considering these advances, we explore simple learning techniques to drastically reduce the size of a stochastic unit commitment problem without significantly altering its optimal solution. The considered stochastic unit commitment problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming problem. The first stage represents commitment decisions, while the second one represents the operation conditions under different scenarios. Taking into account historical solved instances (or proxies for them), we reduce the size (measured by numbers of constraints and variables) of the stochastic unit commitment problem by (i) fixing unchanged binary variables and by (ii) eliminating inactive inequality constraints. Our numerical results show that the reduced problem generally requires significantly less time to solve while obtaining high-quality solutions, which are very close to or indistinguishable from the one obtained by solving the original problem. We use an Illinois 200-bus system to illustrate and characterize the performance of the proposed problem-reduction method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 12: Adaptive Management Related to Marine Renewable Energy

As the marine renewable energy (MRE) industry is rapidly ramped up from single devices to commercial-scale deployments, developers and regulators will need evidence of the environmental effects of MRE to inform project development and consenting/permitting (hereafter consenting) processes. Uncertainty surrounding the potential impacts of novel RE technologies on sensitive marine animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes means that even robust baseline environmental information cannot comprehensively address all pre-deployment knowledge gaps. Tools and practical approaches are needed to help with the sustainable development of the industry. Adaptive management (AM), also referred to as learning by/while doing, enables projects to be deployed incrementally, despite uncertainty, in a way that prevents unacceptable harm to the marine environment. If rigorously implemented, this approach may provide a reliable mechanism for closing knowledge gaps, thereby retiring risks for future MRE developments. This chapter explores and suggests a pathway for applying a passive approach to AM for the consenting of single devices and array-scale MRE projects. Complementary information is available online at https://tethys.pnnl.gov/state-of-thescience-2020 -supplementaryadaptive-management. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-12-adaptive-management

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-Term Photovoltaic System Performance in Cold, Snowy Climates

As countries around the world transition towards renewable energy, there is increasing interest in using photovoltaic (PV) technologies to help decarbonize northern and alpine communities due to their scalability and affordability. However, a barrier to large-scale adoption of PV in cold climates is long-term performance uncertainty under snowfall, freeze-thaw cycles, low temperatures, and high winds. In this work, we provide a comprehensive review of published silicon degradation rates in cold Koppen-Geiger climate classifications of Dfb (humid continental), Dfc (subarctic), and ET (tundra). We first analyze the system degradation rates of three subarctic ground-mounted photovoltaic sites in North America using the RdTools year-on-year method: an Al-BSF double-axis tracking site in Fairbanks, Alaska (65degrees N); a PERC and silicon heterojunction bifacial vertical and south-tilted site in Fairbanks, Alaska; and a PERC south-facing fixed-tilt site in Fort Simpson, Northwest Territories (62degrees N). Degradation rates of these newly analyzed sites vary between -0.4%/year and -1.5%/year. Combining these data with previously reported cold climate degradation rates, we show that the distribution of cold climate degradation peaks at -0.1%/year to -0.2%/year but has a large tail with rates above -0.5%/year. The average reported cold climate degradation rate is -0.45%/year, whereas the median value is -0.33%/year. These results suggest that despite frequent freeze-thaw cycles and potential exposure to high wind and snow loads, PV systems in cold climates tend to degrade slower than PV systems in warmer climates. The limited sample size of reported degradation rates in cold climates (27) motivates the need for further data acquisition and monitoring efforts as new technologies are deployed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

PV Reference Cells for Outdoor Use: An Investigation of Calibration Factors

Reference cells are widely used in the photovoltaic (PV) industry to measure irradiance. For field applications and outdoor use, a variety of products are on the market, and they are often perceived as a low-cost alternative to thermopile radiometers. But reference cell characteristics differ substantially from the latter, therefore measurements made by one category of instrument cannot be substituted for or directly compared with the other. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory is currently in a multiyear effort to develop guidance and recommendations for the design and use of outdoor reference cells, with a view to reducing inconsistencies and measurement uncertainty. The core of this effort is the long-term deployment of 39 units of 10 distinct types made by 6 manufacturers. This report compares the calibration factors provided by manufacturers - which most users rely upon - to those measured at a high level of accuracy by NREL's Cell Lab. It also reports on the application of the Broadband Outdoor Radiometer Calibration (BORCAL) method to reference cells. As a group, the factory calibrations for the crystalline silicon cells showed a small positive bias of +0.7%, with a tight distribution around this value. This is a very good result for the manufacturers. The two World Photovoltaic Scale cells constituted outliers, with a mean deviation of -0.8%, which is still within the reported uncertainty ranges. The data collected during the BORCAL procedures show a strong and systematic fluctuation of the apparent responsivity of the reference cells over the course of a day, which was anticipated. Consequently, the standard BORCAL R@45 calibration factors underestimated the reference cell responsivities by 1%-4%. An alternate responsivity indicator was developed, R'@30, incorporating adjustments for temperature response, spectral response, and directional response. This reduced the mean deviation to -0.4% compared to the Cell Lab. Further, two independent BORCAL sessions were able to produce the same values to within ±0.2%. This could be a viable approach for verifying reference cells using existing BORCAL infrastructure, for example, to evaluate their long-term stability. The daily profiles of responsivity obtained during the BORCAL sessions (provided in Appendix A) show clear patterns of differences between models, which provides evidence that their directional responses differ from each other; thus, two sensors that are calibrated correctly might give the same reading at 30° zenith angle but systematically different readings at 60°. The impact of these inconsistencies in field operation will be quantified using the long-term observations started in 2020.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

PV Reference Cells for Outdoor Use: Comparison of First-Year Field Measurements

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗