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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Ozone Precursor Emissions from Four World Regions on Tropospheric Composition and Radiative Climate Forcing

Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO4 (sup 2-)). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO4 (sup 2-) and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean plus or minus 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 plus or minus 0.6 to 1.7 2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (-162.6 plus or minus 2 mWm(sup -2) for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (-0.4 plus or minus 0.2 to 0.7 plus or minus 0.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1) and CO emissions (-0.13 plus or minus 0.02 to -0.15 plus or minus 0.02 mWm(sup-2)/Tg CO yr(sup-1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by -1.9 to- 5.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), -0.2 to -0.7 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1), and -0.02 to -0.05 mWm(sup -2)/ Tg CO yr(sup -1). Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO4 (sup -2), regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO4 2 responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 plus or minus 2.6 to -1.9 plus or minus 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 plus or minus 1.2 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and -0.09 plus or minus 0.5 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP(sub 100)) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 plus or minus 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 plus or minus 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (18.7 plus or minus 25.9 to 1.9 plus or minus 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 plus or minus 1.7 to 8.3 plus or minus 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 plus or minus 0.4 to 1.7 plus or minus 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP(sub 100) for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

ozone↗
NASA NTRS2018

Surface Reconstruction of a Challenging Region with Permanent Shadows on the Moon

As the Earth is orbiting the Sun, there is the region a sunlight can't be reached on the Moon, a satellite of the Earth. Usually, the permanent shadows are located near a pole area and the surface reconstruction in the permanent shadows region is challenging because of the lack of sunlight.In this research, the reconstruction method containing the permanent shadows is suggested. To apply this method, the time-varying shadow region and a permanently shadowed region are needed to be separated. In the time-varying shadow region, the pixel intensity of the image can be composed of the albedo and the reflectance model. Using the light source direction from ISIS3 of USGS, the shape of the region can be extracted from the reflectance model. Though this region is visible in the camera, the change of illumination is quite large in this region, it is hard to reconstruct the shape using stereo-photogrammetry or SfS. So, it is needed of collecting more surface normal information from several pixel level-aligned images. In this process, the albedo information can be initialized and enhanced easily from many images.In the middle of permanent shadows, the high-resolution DEM is generated by LOLA DEM. The LOLA DEM is generated by interpolation between measured data point strips, the actual scene of the permanent shadows. Using the sensor like DIVINER, the Imaginary scene generation via a trained network between the sunlight sensor and other kinds of a sensor is suggested.

Moon, Sunghyun↗
NASA NTRS2018

Numerical Studies of Hall Thruster Acceleration Region Electron Transport

Azimuthal direction 1-D and azimuthal and axial direction 2-D Particle in Cell (PIC) simulations of the Hall thruster acceleration and near-plume regions are presented. The axial extent of the 2-D computational domain is based on the ExB drift parameter, 𝑫𝑬𝒙𝑩, the number of times around the channel an electron ExB drifts before being scattered. With only high energy main beam ions, the simulations produced a broad potential profile in the acceleration region. The addition of a small amount of ionization in the acceleration domain at a rate consistent with Hall thruster parameters causes the potential profile to develop two distinct regions. In the upstream portion of the computational domain, the potential profile is very steep, typical of Hall thruster acceleration regions. In the downstream portion, the potential profile is almost flat, like potentials in Hall thruster near plume regions. This bifurcation happens naturally; there is no other change in code parameters between the two results. Without the addition of a small amount of ionization in the acceleration region, the axial electron transport is very low. With ionization, the calculated ratio of electron current to ion current is the same order of those measured in Hall thrusters. This suggests that in regions with lower energy electrons and ions, plasma waves are effective in allowing crossfield transport, and axial electric fields are small. In the acceleration region, the plasma waves are less effective at scattering the energetic electrons, and high axial electric fields are needed to produce the observed cross-field electron transport.

Ortega, Alejandro Lopez↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Unlocking the Mysteries of the Moon’s Shadowed Regions

The Moon poles host large quantities of water-ice deposits in the permanently shadowed regions (PSRs), which are vital for enabling sustainable human space exploration, making these regions high-priority targets for upcoming Artemis missions [1]. Unfortunately, today, the best available orbital lunar imagery [2, 3] lacks the meter-scale resolution and signal needed to understand the geomorphology and trafficability of PSRs, complicating the planning and execution of future missions seeking to explore PSRs. We have developed an image enhancement tool called HORUS (Hyper-effective nOise Removal Unet Software) [4, 5], designed to enhance LRO Narrow-Angle Camera (NAC) optical low-light imagery of permanently shadowed regions by effectively removing the CCD-related, photon, and other residual noises that corrupt the images. The tool is composed of two deep learning neural networks trained on environmental metadata and real and synthetic imagery, the latter generated by a physical noise model (LROC). We demonstrated that HORUS effectively produces low-noise, high-resolution images (~1.5m/px), achieving a 5 to 10x improvement over existing long-exposure images of PSRs. HORUS allows scientists and engineers to identify geomorphic features (e.g., craters and boulders) in shadowed regions as small as 3 meters across as well as to peek inside of small shadowed regions, for the first time. The tool was deployed and thoroughly validated for NASA's VIPER mission [6], where it was applied to 20 candidate target regions across the lunar South Pole. Additionally, we conducted different approaches to validate the resulting HORUS-processed images. With HORUS denoised images, VIPER scientists can increase their confidence on what surface features (previously unseen) exist in the shadowed regions, helping them plan rover traverses more safely and efficiently (e.g., Fig. 1) In this manuscript, we will describe how VIPER scientists are utilizing HORUS denoised images to extract new information from the terrain and increase their confidence in what surface features exist in the shadowed regions. In combination with other high-resolution images and digital elevation maps, HORUS images are helping the team analyze potential lading and science sites, as well as planning traverses more safely and efficiently (e.g., Fig. 1). Additionally, we will describe how HORUS tool unlocks a broad range of scientific and exploration applications to other Artemis and CPLS missions to the lunar poles, including (but not limited to) geomorphic analysis, change detection, surface hazard detection, and terrain relative navigation.

artificial intelligence↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Water and Disasters Tools and Development Across the SERVIR Program and Lessons-Learned Within the Hindukush Himalayan Region

The NASA-USAID SERVIR program works in partnership with leading regional organizations around the globe to help developing countries use information provided by earth observing satellites and geospatial technologies. The SERVIR Applied Sciences Team (AST) is assembled on a 3-year rotating cycle to partner with these regional organizations on the joint development and implementation of tools and techniques that can be used operationally in each region. The Portfolio of AST projects address regional priorities in four thematic service areas: Land Cover, Land Use Change & Ecosystems; Water and water-related Disasters; Weather & Climate and Food Security & Agriculture. An important goal of AST is knowledge sharing across the different regional entities to share tools and technologies for the improvement of all. This talk will focus on the Water and Disasters service area and review how tools developed in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region in partnership with the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) have evolved over the AST cycles. We will provide examples of stakeholder engagement both at ICIMOD and across the regional partners they support. We will also share recent examples and lessons learned with users from other SERVIR regions.

Lori A Schultz↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regional-scale fault-to-structure earthquake simulations with the EQSIM framework: Workflow maturation and computational performance on GPU-accelerated exascale platforms

Continuous advancements in scientific and engineering understanding of earthquake phenomena, combined with the associated development of representative physics-based models, is providing a foundation for high-performance, fault-to-structure earthquake simulations. However, regional-scale applications of high-performance models have been challenged by the computational requirements at the resolutions required for engineering risk assessments. The EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) framework, a software application development under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project, is focused on overcoming the existing computational barriers and enabling routine regional-scale simulations at resolutions relevant to a breadth of engineered systems. This multidisciplinary software development—drawing upon expertise in geophysics, engineering, applied math and computer science—is preparing the advanced computational workflow necessary to fully exploit the DOE’s exaflop computer platforms coming online in the 2023 to 2024 timeframe. Achievement of the computational performance required for high-resolution regional models containing upward of hundreds of billions to trillions of model grid points requires numerical efficiency in every phase of a regional simulation. This includes run time start-up and regional model generation, effective distribution of the computational workload across thousands of computer nodes, efficient coupling of regional geophysics and local engineering models, and application-tailored highly efficient transfer, storage, and interrogation of very large volumes of simulation data. This article summarizes the most recent advancements and refinements incorporated in the workflow design for the EQSIM integrated fault-to-structure framework, which are based on extensive numerical testing across multiple graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated platforms, and demonstrates the computational performance achieved on the world’s first exaflop computer platform through representative regional-scale earthquake simulations for the San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Roadmap to reach global net-zero emissions for developing regions by 2085

As climate change intensifies, determining a developing region’s role in achieving net-zero emissions worldwide is crucial. However, regional efforts, considering historical emissions, remain underexplored. Here, we assess energy system changes, technology adoption, and investments needed for developing regions, including five major- and minor-emitting nations. Our analysis, using an integrated assessment model, shows a large gap in regional efforts toward global net-zero emissions, stemming from the necessary shift of energy systems to low-carbon resources. The use of new technologies, like electric vehicles, hydrogen, and carbon capture, varies by region, with the highest adoption required between 2020 and 2030. Financing this shift needs an average gross domestic product (GDP) investment rise of 0.464% in minor-emitting regions and up to 2.1% in major-emitting regions by 2085. Our results could guide policies and support setting quantifiable targets for developing nations. The findings are key to facilitating strategic technology use and finance mobilization to achieve a carbon-neutral future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrologic Regionalization under Data Scarcity: Implications for Streamflow Prediction

Continuous streamflow prediction is crucial in many applications of water resources planning and management. However, streamflow prediction is challenging, particularly in data-scarce regions. Here, we demonstrate an approach to regionalize the flow duration curve for predicting daily streamflow in the data-scare region of the central Himalayas. We developed a regression-based model to estimate streamflow at various segments of a flow duration curve by incorporating basin characteristics and climate variables. This study analyzes the sensitivities of proximity and characteristics between the donor (gauged) and receptor (ungauged) basins for time-series streamflow prediction. Our results show that regionalization techniques perform better in low to medium flows over high flows. Our findings are significant in the central Himalayan regional context to inform operational and management decisions in water sector projects like hydropower plants, which generally rely on low-to-medium streamflow information. Although the quantitative results are region-specific, the approach and insights are generalizable to the Himalayan region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Disentangling the Regional Climate Impacts of Competing Vegetation Responses to Elevated Atmospheric CO2

Biophysical vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect regional hydroclimate through two competing mechanisms. Higher CO2 increases leaf area (LAI), thereby increasing transpiration and water losses. Simultaneously, elevated CO2 reduces stomatal conductance and transpiration, thereby increasing rootzone soil moisture. Which mechanism dominates in the future is highly uncertain, partly because these two processes are difficult to explicitly separate within dynamic vegetation models. We address this challenge by using the GISS ModelE global climate model to conduct a novel set of idealized 2×CO2 sensitivity experiments to: evaluate the total vegetation biophysical contribution to regional climate change under high CO2; and quantify the separate contributions of enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance to regional hydroclimate responses. We find that increased LAI exacerbates soil moisture deficits across the sub‐tropics and more water‐limited regions, but also attenuates warming by ∼0.5–1°C in the US Southwest, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and northern South America. Reduced stomatal conductance effects contribute ∼1°C of summertime warming. For some regions, enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance produce nonlinear and either competing or mutually amplifying hydroclimate responses. In northeastern Australia, these effects combine to exacerbate radiation‐forced warming and contribute to year‐round water limitation. Conversely, at higher latitudes these combined effects result in less warming than would otherwise be predicted due to nonlinear responses. These results highlight substantial regional variation in CO2‐driven vegetation responses and the importance of improving model representations of these processes to better quantify regional hydroclimate impacts.

Regional climate impacts↗
NASA NTRS2022

Spectroscopic Study of Solar Transition Region Oscillations in the Quiet-Sun Observed By IRIS Using Si IV Spectral Line

In the present paper, we use Si IV 1393.755 Å spectral line observed by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) in the quiet-Sun to determine physical nature of the solar transition region (TR) oscillations. We analyze the properties of these oscillations using wavelet tools (e.g., power, cross-power, coherence, and phase difference) along with the stringent noise model (i.e., power-law + constant). We estimate the period of the intensity and Doppler velocity oscillations at each chosen location in the quiet-Sun (QS) and quantify the distribution of the statistically significant power and associated periods in one bright and two dark regions. In the bright TR region, the mean periods in intensity and velocity are 7 min, and 8 min respectively. In the dark region, the mean periods in intensity and velocity are 7 min, and 5.4 min respectively. We also estimate the phase difference between the intensity and Doppler velocity oscillations at each location. The statistical distribution of phase difference is estimated, which peaks at -119°± 13°, 33°± 10°, 102°± 10° in the bright region, while at -153°± 13°, 6°± 20°, 151°± 10° in the dark region. The statistical distribution reveals that the oscillations are caused by propagating slow magnetoacoustic waves encountered with the TR. Some of these locations may also be associated with the standing slow waves. Even, in the given time domain, several locations exhibit presence of both propagating and standing oscillations at different frequencies.

Sun: oscillations↗
NASA NTRS2026

South Asian Monsoon Response to Regional Aerosol Emission Reductions: Insights From RAMIP

Anthropogenic aerosol and associated precursor gas emissions are already declining in many regions and are likely to decline significantly by 2050, with major implications for regional climate. Unlike greenhouse gases, aerosol impacts are spatially heterogeneous and can influence climate both near emission sources and through remote teleconnections. This is particularly important for the South Asian monsoon system, where both local and remote aerosol changes can significantly affect precipitation patterns. Using simulations from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project, we examine how local and remote aerosol emission reductions influence South Asian climate across both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, including weakening of the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism during pre-monsoon months. Our analysis employs 10-member ensembles from 10 CMIP6-era models to compare three experiments with global, South Asian, and East Asian aerosol reductions relative to a high-emission baseline (SSP3-7.0). This experimental design allows us to isolate and quantify the distinct impacts of regional emission changes. Results reveal that global aerosol reductions produce a larger all-India precipitation increase (+0.28 mm day −1 ) than South Asian reductions alone (+0.19 mm day −1 ), with the strongest regional responses over the northern Bay of Bengal, the Western Ghats and Indo-Gangetic Plains. East Asian reductions show uncertain but modest precipitation reductions of 0.2-0.6 mm day −1 over parts of west-central and eastern Indian regions. Pre-monsoon carbonaceous aerosol reductions systematically weaken the EHP, cooling the mid-troposphere over the Himalayan foothills by up to 0.4 K and producing localised anomalous descent that opposes the climatological pre-monsoon ascent. Substantial inter-model diversity exists in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these responses, highlighting key uncertainties in aerosol–monsoon interactions. The South Asian precipitation response is driven by enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, while the pre-monsoon EHP weakening is attributable exclusively to local South Asian carbonaceous aerosol forcing rather than remote teleconnections. These findings have direct implications for air quality and climate adaptation planning across South Asia as regional aerosol emissions diverge under different development pathways.

cmip6↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Micro-tensile characteristics of As-fabricated and irradiated AGR-2 TRISO fuel particle buffer, IPyC, and buffer-IPyC interlayer regions

A recently developed micro-tensile sample preparation technique was implemented to evaluate the tensile strengths of the buffer, IPyC, and buffer-IPyC interlayer regions of the unirradiated and irradiated AGR-2 TRISO fuel particles. Understanding the mechanical properties of the buffer-IPyC interlayer is essential for developing thermomechanical models of buffer-IPyC separation, yet there is a lack of experimental data on its micro-tensile properties. TEM analysis was conducted on these regions to determine the microstructural changes relevant to the samples' tensile properties. In the unirradiated TRISO particle samples, the buffer layer demonstrated the weakest tensile strength, while the IPyC layer exhibited the highest. Conversely, in the irradiated TRISO particle samples, the buffer-IPyC interlayer region showed the lowest tensile strength, with the IPyC layer being the strongest. Fractures in the samples from the buffer-IPyC region predominantly occurred either in the buffer layer or at the buffer-IPyC interface. However, some buffer-IPyC interlayer samples displayed stress-strain and fracture behaviors more akin to the IPyC layer than the buffer layer. Analysis of diffraction patterns suggests that irradiation may have increased anisotropy in the three regions tested. Despite this suggested increase in anisotropy, there was no evidence that it affected the measured strengths. The irradiated TRISO particles demonstrated a considerable increase in void space and a decrease in ultimate tensile strength within the buffer-IPyC interlayer region due to the densification and contraction of the buffer layer. Minor variations in diffraction ring patterns were also observed. These changes, coupled with a significant reduction in the Weibull modulus/shape parameter, imply that irradiation-induced densification leads to tearing between the buffer and IPyC layers at locations of elevated porosity in the buffer-IPyC interlayer region.

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Regional Seismic Velocity Models With Higher‐Resolution Local Results Using Sparse Dictionary Learning

Abstract We use sparse dictionary learning to develop transformations between seismic velocity models of different resolution and spatial extent. Starting with data in the common region of both models, the method can enhance a regional lower‐resolution model to match the style and resolution of local higher‐resolution results while preserving its regional coverage. The method is demonstrated by applying it to two‐dimensional V S and three‐dimensional V P and V S regional and local velocity models in southern California. The enhanced reconstructed regional results exhibit clear visual improvements, especially in the reconstructed V P / V S ratios, and better correlations with geological features. Moreover, the reconstructed regional V P , V S models outperform the original ones in comparison of simulated earthquake waveforms to observations. The improved fitting to observed waveforms extends beyond the domain of the overlapping region. The developed dictionary learning approach provides physically interpretable results and offers a powerful tool for additional applications of data enhancement in earth sciences.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Climate-Disease Connections in Geopolitical Versus Ecological Regions: The Case of West Nile Virus in the United States

Many infectious disease forecasting models in the United States (US) are built with data partitioned into geopolitical regions centered on human activity as opposed to regions defined by natural ecosystems; although useful for data collection and intervention, this has the potential to mask biological relationships between the environment and disease. We explored this concept by analyzing the correlations between climate and West Nile virus (WNV) case data aggregated to geopolitical and ecological regions. We compared correlations between minimum, maximum, and mean annual temperature; precipitation; and annual WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) case data from 2005 to 2019 when partitioned into (a) climate regions defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and (b) Level I ecoregions defined by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We found that correlations between climate and WNND in NOAA climate regions and EPA ecoregions were often contradictory in both direction and magnitude, with EPA ecoregions more often supporting previously established biological hypotheses and environmental dynamics underlying vector-borne disease transmission. Using ecological regions to examine the relationships between climate and disease cases can enhance the predictive power of forecasts at various scales, motivating a conceptual shift in large-scale analyses from geopolitical frameworks to more ecologically meaningful regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting weather impacts on corn production in a data-limited region using a transfer learning approach

The stability of food supply and prices may depend more on annual changes in yields from year-to-year variability in weather than on longer-term average changes from changing climatic conditions. However, the absence of high-quality data on crop yields at fine spatial resolutions in many regions of the world makes it challenging to statistically model their response to interannual variability in weather patterns. Therefore, there is a need for empirical methods that can project annual crop yield changes even in limited data regions. Here, we propose a transfer learning algorithm that uses high spatial resolution data from one region to project yields in another region with more limited data. The goal of our work is to understand what data types can be beneficial for transferring learning from a source region to a very different target region with more limited data. We utilize Long Short-Term Memory to develop a transfer learning model that is trained on historical county-level corn yield in the United States and predicts district-level corn yield variations in India. Even using smaller amounts of data in India, simulating a data-scarce region, we achieve an average root mean square error of 0.48 bu acre−1 in predicting interannual yield variations. Using Shapley values to interpret results, we explore the contribution of the different weather parameters to interannual yield variability and find a larger influence of precipitation-related variables. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of this method for transferring models of weather impacts on crop yields trained on a data-rich country to one with more limited data. It suggests the potential of applying the transfer learning model to mitigate the need for extensive raw data globally.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031674419↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combining different 3-D global and regional seismic wave propagation solvers towards box tomography in the deep Earth

SUMMARY In previous publications, we presented a general framework, which we called ‘box tomography’, that allows the coupling of any two different numerical seismic wave propagation solvers, respectively outside and inside a target region, or ‘box’. The goal of such hybrid wavefield computations is to reduce the cost of computations in the context of full-waveform inversion for structure within the target region, when sources and/or receivers are located at large distances from the box. Previously, we had demonstrated this approach with sources and receivers outside the target region in a 2-D acoustic spherical earth model, and demonstrated and applied this methodology in the 3-D spherical elastic Earth in a continental scale inversion in which all stations were inside the target region. Here we extend the implementation of the approach to the case of a 3-D global elastic earth model in the case where both sources and stations are outside the box. We couple a global 3-D solver, SPECFEM3D_GLOBE, for the computation of the wavefield and Green’s functions in a reference 3-D model, with a regional 3-D solver, RegSEM, for the computation of the wavefield within the box, by means of time-reversal mirrors. We briefly review key theoretical aspects, showing in particular how only the displacement is needed to be stored at the boundary of the box. We provide details of the practical implementation, including the geometrical design of the mirrors, how we deal with different sizes of meshes in the two solvers, and how we address memory-saving through the use of B-spline compression of the recorded wavefield on the mirror. The proposed approach is numerically efficient but also versatile, since adapting it to other solvers is straightforward and does not require any changes in the solver codes themselves, as long as the displacement can be recovered at any point in time and space. We present benchmarks of the hybrid computations against direct computations of the wavefield between a source and an array of stations in a realistic geometry centred in the Yellowstone region, with and without a hypothetical plume within the ‘box’, and with a 1-D or a 3-D background model, down to a period of 20 s. The ultimate goal of this development is for applications in the context of imaging of remote target regions in the deep mantle, such as, for example, Ultra Low Velocity Zones.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regional Inertia Estimation Using Actual Event Measurements: Florida Case

As inverter-based resources’ integration in power grids increases, their uneven distribution across the electrical network leads to the formation of local regions that are weakly coupled to the larger interconnection. This signifies the necessity of regional frequency dynamics investigation and analyzing various inertia metrics. This paper presents a practical methodology for estimating regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF) using actual event recordings, which is then used to evaluate regional inertia. Florida (FL) is selected as the region of interest due to its distinct regional frequency dynamics and the rising levels of solar generation. We identify and analyze confirmed events from 2017 to 2024 that occurred in FL. The results indicate that FL contributes about 14% to the total inertia of the US Eastern Interconnection, which approximately matches its share of generation capacity. Results also highlight seasonal fluctuations in energy generation, which play a significant role in influencing inertia and thus the RoCoF levels. This emphasizes the importance of estimating regional inertia to enhance grid operations for a future that focuses on distributed generation.

Dulal, Saurav [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗