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At least 253 records · Page 14

X-ray emission from a complete sample of Abell clusters of galaxies

The Rosat all sky survey is used to investigate the X-ray properties of a sample of Abell clusters with measured redshifts and accurate positions. The sample comprises the 145 clusters within a 561 square degree region at high galactic latitude. The mean redshift is 0.17. The sample mean exposure time is higher than average and its mean galactic column density is very low. These together produce a flux limit of about 4.2 x 10(exp -13) erg/sq cm/s in the 0.5 to 2.5 keV energy band. By analyzing the excess of positive fluctuations of the X-ray flux at the cluster positions, compared with the fluctuations of randomly drawn background fields, it is possible to extend these results below the nominal flux limit. It is found that 80 of richness R equal to or greater than 0 and 86 of R equal to or greater than 1 clusters are X-ray emitters with fluxes above 1.10 to the power of minus 13 erg/sq cm/s. Nearly 90 of the clusters meeting the requirements to be in Abell's statistical sample emit above the same level. It is concluded that almost all Abell clusters are real clusters and the Abell catalogue is not strongly contaminated by projection effects. The Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator is used to calculate the cumulative X-ray luminosity function. It is shown that the shape of the luminosity functions are similar for different richness classes, but the characteristic luminosities of richness 2 clusters are about twice of those of richness 1 clusters which are in turn about twice of those of richness zero clusters. This result is another manifestation of the luminosity richness relation for Abell cluster.

Briel, Ulrich G.↗

Local design optimization for composite transport fuselage crown panels

Composite transport fuselage crown panel design and manufacturing plans were optimized to have projected cost and weight savings of 18 percent and 45 percent, respectively. These savings are close to those quoted as overall NASA ACT program goals. Three local optimization tasks were found to influence the cost and weight of fuselage crown panels. This paper summarizes the effect of each task and describes in detail the task associated with a design cost model. Studies were performed to evaluate the relationship between manufacturing cost and design details. A design tool was developed to aid in these investigations. The development of the design tool included combining cost and performance constraints with a random search optimization algorithm. The resulting software was used in a series of optimization studies that evaluated the sensitivity of design variables, guidelines, criteria, and material selection on cost. The effect of blending adjacent design points in a full scale panel subjected to changing load distributions and local variations was shown to be important. Technical issues and directions for future work were identified.

Swanson, G. D.↗

OceanWATERS Lander Robotic Arm Operation

Ocean Worlds Autonomy Testbed for Exploration Research and Simulation (OceanWATERS) is an open-source simulator for developing onboard autonomy software for robotic exploration of ocean worlds, such as Europa, Enceladus, and Titan, built on the Robot Operating System (ROS) and Gazebo simulation environment. Inevitable ground communication delays increase demand for a high degree of autonomy during excavation, collection and transfer of samples to scientific instruments for in-situ analysis. This paper offers a detailed discussion of the robotic arm design and operation for such autonomous surface exploration, taking as reference the Europa Lander mission. The lander arm, which is designed primarily to acquire icy surface and subsurface samples within the arm’s workspace, is a 6-degree-of-freedom manipulator with two end effectors: a sample excavation tool and a trenching end-effector. The robotic arm’s modes and operations can be summarized as follows: stowed arm, intended as the lander arm default configuration characterized by zero-power consumption; un-stowed arm, target arm configuration after its first deployment; selection and deployment of the end-effector to use next; guarded move, to detect ground level at the desired trenching location; drill ice using the grinder; dig trench at a particular location using the scoop; deliver sample to the sample transfer dock; discard redundant samples. The motion planning tool used for the lander arm is MoveIt, a ROS package. MoveIt uses sampling-based planning and collision checking libraries to determine safe paths. The Rapidly Exploring Random Trees* (RRT*) has been chosen as default planning algorithm as it provides optimal plans with an exponential speed and is guaranteed to find a solution, if feasible solutions exist. Furthermore, this work quantifies and discusses the energy requirements for excavating and collecting samples. In OceanWATERS, force feedback from the terrain, which influences the arm dynamics, is modelled using a discrete element method (DEM) simulation. The DEM and Gazebo software run in parallel and communicate through a co-simulation plugin. This paper presents an analysis and comparison of three DEM open source software (YADE, ESyS-Particle, Project Chrono) for implementation in OceanWATERS and motivates the choice of YADE as most suitable candidate.

Damiana Catanoso↗

Multiversion software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

In this project we have proposed to investigate a number of experimental and theoretical issues associated with the practical use of multi-version software in providing dependable software through fault-avoidance and fault-elimination, as well as run-time tolerance of software faults. In the period reported here we have working on the following: We have continued collection of data on the relationships between software faults and reliability, and the coverage provided by the testing process as measured by different metrics (including data flow metrics). We continued work on software reliability estimation methods based on non-random sampling, and the relationship between software reliability and code coverage provided through testing. We have continued studying back-to-back testing as an efficient mechanism for removal of uncorrelated faults, and common-cause faults of variable span. We have also been studying back-to-back testing as a tool for improvement of the software change process, including regression testing. We continued investigating existing, and worked on formulation of new fault-tolerance models. In particular, we have partly finished evaluation of Consensus Voting in the presence of correlated failures, and are in the process of finishing evaluation of Consensus Recovery Block (CRB) under failure correlation. We find both approaches far superior to commonly employed fixed agreement number voting (usually majority voting). We have also finished a cost analysis of the CRB approach.

Vouk, Mladen A.↗

Early development of fern gametophytes in microgravity

Dormant spores of the fern Ceratopteris richardii were flown on Shuttle mission STS-93 to evaluate the effects of micro-g on their development and on their pattern of gene expression. Prior to flight the spores were sterilized and sown into one of two environments: (1) Microscope slides in a video-microscopy module; and (2) Petri dishes. All spores were then stored in darkness until use. Spore germination was initiated on orbit after exposure to light. For the spores on microscope slides, cell level changes were recorded through the clear spore coat of the spores by video microscopy. After their exposure to light, spores in petri dishes were frozen in orbit at four different time points during which on earth gravity fixes the polarity of their development. Spores were then stored frozen in Biological Research in Canister units until recovery on earth. The RNAs from these cells and from 1-g control cells were extracted and analyzed on earth after flight to assay changes in gene expression. Video microscopy results revealed that the germinated spores developed normally in microgravity, although the polarity of their development, which is guided by gravity on earth, was random in space. Differential Display-PCR analyses of RNA extracted from space-flown cells showed that there was about a 5% change in the pattern of gene expression between cells developing in micro-g compared to those developing on earth. c2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

manned↗

Local design optimization for composite transport fuselage crown panels

Composite transport fuselage crown panel design and manufacturing plans were optimized to have projected cost and weight savings of 18 and 45 percent, respectively. These savings are close to those quoted as overall NASA Advanced Composite Technology (ACT) program goals. Three local optimization tasks were found to influence the cost and weight of fuselage crown panels. The effects are summarized of each task and the task associated with a design cost model is described in detail. Studies were performed to evaluate the relationship between manufacturing cost and design details. A design tool was developed to aid in these studies. The development of the design tool included combining cost and performance constraints with a random search optimization algorithm. The resulting software was used in a series of optimization studies that evaluated the sensitivity of design variables, guidelines, criteria, and material selection on cost. The effect of blending adjacent design points in a full scale panel subjected to changing load distributions and local variations was shown to be important. Technical issues and directions for future work were identified.

Swanson, G. D.↗

Step Bunching: Influence of Impurities and Solution Flow

Step bunching results in striations even at relatively early stages of its development and in inclusions of mother liquor at the later stages. Therefore, eliminating step bunching is crucial for high crystal perfection. At least 5 major effects causing and influencing step bunching are known: (1) Basic morphological instability of stepped interfaces. It is caused by concentration gradient in the solution normal to the face and by the redistribution of solute tangentially to the interface which redistribution enhances occasional perturbations in step density due to various types of noise; (2) Aggravation of the above basic instability by solution flowing tangentially to the face in the same directions as the steps or stabilization of equidistant step train if these flows are antiparallel; (3) Enhanced bunching at supersaturation where step velocity v increases with relative supersaturation s much faster than linear. This v(s) dependence is believed to be associated with impurities. The impurities of which adsorption time is comparable with the time needed to deposit one lattice layer may also be responsible for bunching; (4) Very intensive solution flow stabilizes growing interface even at parallel solution and step flows; (5) Macrosteps were observed to nucleate at crystal corners and edges. Numerical simulation, assuming step-step interactions via surface diffusion also show that step bunching may be induced by random step nucleation at the facet edge and by discontinuity in the step density (a ridge) somewhere in the middle of a face. The corresponding bunching patterns produce the ones observed in experiment. The nature of step bunching generated at the corners and edges and by dislocation step sources, as well as the also relative importance and interrelations between mechanisms 1-5 is not clear, both from experimental and theoretical standpoints. Furthermore, several laws controlling the evolution of existing step bunches have been suggested, though unambiguous conclusions are still missing. Addressing these issues is the major goal of the present project. The theory addressing the above problem, experimental methods, several figures which include: (1) the spatial wave numbers at which the system is neutrally stable as a function of growth velocity for linear kinetics and supersaturation for nonlinear kinetics; (2) a schematic of the experiment of lysozyme crystal growing under conditions of natural convection; (3) fluctuations in time, t, of the normal growth rate, R(t), vicinal slope, p(t) and Fourier Spectra of R(t), discussions and conclusions are presented.

Chernov, A. A.↗

Advanced Land Imager Assessment System

The Advanced Land Imager Assessment System (ALIAS) supports radiometric and geometric image processing for the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) instrument onboard NASA s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite. ALIAS consists of two processing subsystems for radiometric and geometric processing of the ALI s multispectral imagery. The radiometric processing subsystem characterizes and corrects, where possible, radiometric qualities including: coherent, impulse; and random noise; signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs); detector operability; gain; bias; saturation levels; striping and banding; and the stability of detector performance. The geometric processing subsystem and analysis capabilities support sensor alignment calibrations, sensor chip assembly (SCA)-to-SCA alignments and band-to-band alignment; and perform geodetic accuracy assessments, modulation transfer function (MTF) characterizations, and image-to-image characterizations. ALIAS also characterizes and corrects band-toband registration, and performs systematic precision and terrain correction of ALI images. This system can geometrically correct, and automatically mosaic, the SCA image strips into a seamless, map-projected image. This system provides a large database, which enables bulk trending for all ALI image data and significant instrument telemetry. Bulk trending consists of two functions: Housekeeping Processing and Bulk Radiometric Processing. The Housekeeping function pulls telemetry and temperature information from the instrument housekeeping files and writes this information to a database for trending. The Bulk Radiometric Processing function writes statistical information from the dark data acquired before and after the Earth imagery and the lamp data to the database for trending. This allows for multi-scene statistical analyses.

Chander, Gyanesh↗

Quickbird Satellite in-orbit Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) Measurement Using Edge, Pulse and Impulse Methods for Summer 2003

The spatial characteristics of an imaging system cannot be expressed by a single number or simple statement. However, the Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) is one approach to measure the spatial quality of an imaging system. Basically, MTF is the normalized spatial frequency response of an imaging system. The frequency response of the system can be evaluated by applying an impulse input. The resulting impulse response is termed the Point Spread function (PSF). This function is a measure of the amount of blurring present in the imaging system and is itself a useful measure of spatial quality. An underlying assumption is that the imaging system is linear and shift-independent. The Fourier transform of the PSF is called the Optical Transfer Function (OTF) and the normalized magnitude of the OTF is the MTF. In addition to using an impulse input, a knife-edge in technique has also been used in this project. The sharp edge exercises an imaging system at all spatial frequencies. The profile of an edge response from an imaging system is called an Edge Spread Function (ESF). Differentiation of the ESF results in a one-dimensional version of the Point Spread Function (PSF). Finally, MTF can be calculated through use of Fourier transform of the PSF as stated previously. Every image includes noise in some degree which makes MTF of PSF estimation more difficult. To avoid the noise effects, many MTF estimation approaches use smooth numerical models. Historically, Gaussian models and Fermi functions were applied to reduce the random noise in the output profiles. The pulse-input method was used to measure the MTF of the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) using 8th order even functions over the San Mateo Bridge in San Francisco, California. Because the bridge width was smaller than the 30-meter ground sample distance (GSD) of the TM, the Nyquist frequency was located before the first zero-crossing point of the sinc function from the Fourier transformation of the bridge pulse. To avoid the zero-crossing points in the frequency domain from a pulse, the pulse width should be less than the width of two pixels (or 2 GSD's), but the short extent of the pulse results in a poor signal-to-noise ratio. Similarly, for a high-resolution satellite imaging system such as Quickbird, the input pulse width was critical because of the zero crossing points and noise present in the background area. It is important, therefore, that the width of the input pulse be appropriately sized. Finally, the MTF was calculated by taking ratio between Fourier transform of output and Fourier transform of input. Regardless of whether the edge, pulse and impulse target method is used, the orientation of the targets is critical in order to obtain uniformly spaced sub-pixel data points. When the orientation is incorrect, sample data points tend to be located in clusters that result in poor reconstruction of the edge or pulse profiles. Thus, a compromise orientation must be selected so that all spectral bands can be accommodated. This report continues by outlining the objectives in Section 2, procedures followed in Section 3, descriptions of the field campaigns in Section 4, results in Section 5, and a brief summary in Section 6.

Helder, Dennis↗

NESSUS/expert and NESSUS/FPI in the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) program

The Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures under Stress (NESSUS) is the primary computer code being developed in the NASA Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project. It consists of four modules NESSUS/EXPERT, NESSUS/FPI, NESSUS/PRE and NESSUS/FEM. This presentation concentrates on EXPERT and FPI. To provide an effective interface between NESSUS and the user, an expert system module called NESSUS/EXPERT is being developed. That system uses the CLIPS artificial intelligence code developed to NASA-JSC. The code is compatible with FORTRAN, the standard language for codes in PSAM. The user interacts with the CLIPS inference engine, which is linked to the knowledge database. The perturbation database generated by NESSUS/FEM and managed in EXPERT is used to develop the so-called response or performance model in the random variables. Two independent probabilistic methods are available in PSAM for the computation of the probabilistic structural response. These are the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) method and Monte Carlo simulation. FPI is classified as an advanced reliability method and has been developed over the past ten years by researchers addressing the reliability of civil engineering structures. Monte Carlo is a well-established technique for computing probabilities by conducting a number of deterministic analyses with specified input distributional information.

Burnside, O. H.↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

Kim,Myung-Hee Y.↗

An investigation of error correcting techniques for OMV and AXAF

The original objectives of this project were to build a test system for the NASA 255/223 Reed/Solomon encoding/decoding chip set and circuit board. This test system was then to be interfaced with a convolutional system at MSFC to examine the performance of the concantinated codes. After considerable work, it was discovered that the convolutional system could not function as needed. This report documents the design, construction, and testing of the test apparatus for the R/S chip set. The approach taken was to verify the error correcting behavior of the chip set by injecting known error patterns onto data and observing the results. Error sequences were generated using pseudo-random number generator programs, with Poisson time distribution between errors and Gaussian burst lengths. Sample means, variances, and number of un-correctable errors were calculated for each data set before testing.

Ingels, Frank↗

How to Educate Decision Makers on the Value and Necessity of Modal Testing and Model Correlation: Tips for Young Engineers

Engineers need to effectively communicate the justification and value of their modal testing and model correlation in terminology familiar to decision makers as it relates to the program’s risk tolerance. This communication must relate to the program’s risk tolerance and the metrics used to judge the performance of both the program and individual decision makers. The challenge is the terminologies familiar to engineers and decision makers are quite different and seemingly unrelated. The engineering profession has developed a specific terminology to solve highly technical issues, which are many times themselves unique to very specific engineering problems. It is all too easy for engineers to believe that everyone in their organization, including the decision makers, has an intrinsic understanding of what they do and the value it brings to the program’s success. This is especially true for young engineers who have recently spent the last four plus years in an academic engineering learning environment, which has a highly technical research oriented atmosphere. Effective communication with decision makers is increasingly important as the technical breadth and practical program and project experience level for up and coming decision makers diminishes. It is not unusual for the decision makers to have technical knowledge in a domain different from structural dynamics (e.g., electronics or systems). Competition among satellite manufactures has increased the focus on programmatic cost and ability to deliver on schedule. NASA programs are also seeing more restrictive programmatic cost and schedule constraints, which impact both analysis and testing. It should also be noted that a comprehensive suite of tests are required to verify a satellite’s design capability with some margin. These tests include static strength verification tests, shock, acoustic, and vibration tests (sine and random) of systems, subsystems, and components. Each of these verification tests provide opportunities for model correlation and risk reduction. It is important to recognize dynamic loads/modal test models may not include all of the flight hardware (i.e., harness, coax, waveguides, connectors, etc.) and the previously mentioned tests are still required for qualification/verification of the design. This paper provides tips to young engineers on how to bridge this communications gap, have a better understanding of the environment in which decision makers operate, and assist them to better support successful missions. While this paper primarily focuses on modal testing and model correlation as related to spacecraft missions, the concepts and recommendations presented here are equally applicable to other fields such as aeronautics, automotive, power generation, etc.

Decision Maker↗

How to Educate Decision Makers on the Value and Necessity of Modal Testing and Model Correlation: Tips for Young Engineers

Engineers need to effectively communicate the justification and value of their modal testing and model correlation in terminology familiar to decision makers as it relates to the program’s risk tolerance. This communication must relate to the program’s risk tolerance and the metrics used to judge the performance of both the program and individual decision makers. The challenge is the terminologies familiar to engineers and decision makers are quite different and seemingly unrelated. The engineering profession has developed a specific terminology to solve highly technical issues, which are many times themselves unique to very specific engineering problems. It is all too easy for engineers to believe that everyone in their organization, including the decision makers, has an intrinsic understanding of what they do and the value it brings to the program’s success. This is especially true for young engineers who have recently spent the last four plus years in an academic engineering learning environment, which has a highly technical research oriented atmosphere. Effective communication with decision makers is increasingly important as the technical breadth and practical program and project experience level for up and coming decision makers diminishes. It is not unusual for the decision makers to have technical knowledge in a domain different from structural dynamics (e.g., electronics or systems). Competition among satellite manufactures has increased the focus on programmatic cost and ability to deliver on schedule. NASA programs are also seeing more restrictive programmatic cost and schedule constraints, which impact both analysis and testing. It should also be noted that a comprehensive suite of tests are required to verify a satellite’s design capability with some margin. These tests include static strength verification tests, shock, acoustic, and vibration tests (sine and random) of systems, subsystems, and components. Each of these verification tests provide opportunities for model correlation and risk reduction. It is important to recognize dynamic loads/modal test models may not include all of the flight hardware (i.e., harness, coax, waveguides, connectors, etc.) and the previously mentioned tests are still required for qualification/verification of the design. This paper provides tips to young engineers on how to bridge this communications gap, have a better understanding of the environment in which decision makers operate, and assist them to better support successful missions. While this paper primarily focuses on modal testing and model correlation as related to spacecraft missions, the concepts and recommendations presented here are equally applicable to other fields such as aeronautics, automotive, power generation, etc.

Decision Maker↗

Connecting Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates to Users

Beginning in 1997, the Merged Precipitation Group at NASA Goddard has distributed gridded global precipitation products built by combining satellite and surface gauge data. This started with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), then the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and recently the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG). This 20+-year (and on-going) activity has yielded an important set of insights and lessons learned for making state-of-the-art precipitation data accessible to the diverse communities of users. Merged-data products critically depend on the input sensors and the retrieval algorithms providing accurate, reliable estimates, but it is also important to provide ancillary information that helps users determine suitability for their application. We typically provide fields of estimated random error, and recently reintroduced the quality index concept at user request. Also at user request we have added a (diagnostic) field of estimated precipitation phase. Over time, increasingly more ancillary fields have been introduced for intermediate products that give expert users insight into the detailed performance of the combination algorithm, such as individual merged microwave and microwave-calibrated infrared estimates, the contributing microwave sensor types, and the relative influence of the infrared estimate.

Huffman, George J.↗

Using EEG To Detect and Monitor Mental Fatigue

This project aims to develop EEG-based methods for detecting and monitoring mental fatigue. Mental fatigue poses a serious risk, even when performance is not apparently degraded. When such fatigue is associated with sustained performance of a single type of cognitive task it may be related to the metabolic energy required for sustained activation of cortical areas specialized for that task. The objective of this study was to adapt EEG to monitor cortical energy over a long period of performance of a cognitive task. Multielectrode event related potentials (ERPs) were collected every 15 minutes in nine subjects who performed a mental arithmetic task (algebraic sum of four randomly generated negative or positive digits). A new problem was presented on a computer screen 0.5 seconds after each response; some subjects endured for as long as three hours. ERPs were transformed to a quantitative measure of scalp electrical field energy. The average energy level at electrode P3 (near the left angular gyrus), 100-300 msec latency, was compared over the series of ERPs. For most subjects, scalp energy density at P3 gradually fell over the period of task performance and dramatically increased just before the subject was unable to continue the task. This neural response can be simulated for individual subjects using, a differential equation model in which it is assumed that the mental arithmetic task requires a commitment of metabolic energy that would otherwise be used for brain activities that are temporarily neglected. Their cumulative neglect eventually requires a reallocation of energy away from the mental arithmetic task.

Montgomery, Leslie↗

The composing process in technical communications

The theoretical construct under which technical writing exercises operate and results from a survey distributed to a random sample of teachers of technical writing are described. The survey, part of a study to develop materials that did not stress prescriptive formats, drew on diverse elements in report writing to enhance writing as a process. Areas of agreement and disagreement related to problem solving, paper evaluation, and individualizing instruction were surveyed. Areas of concern in contemplating the composition process include: (1) the need to create an environment that helps students want to succeed, (2) the role of peer group activity in helping some students who might not respond through lecture or individual study, and (3) encouraging growth in abilities and helping motivate students' interest in writing projects through relevant assignments or simulations students perceive as relevant.

Hertz, V. L.↗

Instability of the Present LEO Satellite Populations

Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with some assumed launch rates, the future unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects. In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new breakup debris due to collisions would exceed the loss of objects due to orbital decay. A new study has been conducted in the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, using higher fidelity models to evaluate the current debris environment. The study assumed no satellites were launched after December 2005. A total of 150 Monte Carlo runs were carried out and analyzed. Each Monte Carlo run simulated the current debris environment and projected it 200 years into the future. The results indicate that the LEO debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris. Detailed analysis shows that this growth is primarily driven by high collision activities around 900 to 1000 km altitude - the region which has a very high concentration of debris at present. In reality, the satellite population growth in LEO will undoubtedly be worse than this study indicates, since spacecraft and their orbital stages will continue to be launched into space. Postmission disposal of vehicles (e.g., limiting postmission orbital lifetimes to less than 25 years) will help, but will be insufficient to constrain the Earth satellite population. To preserve better the near-Earth environment for future space activities, it might be necessary to remove existing large and massive objects from regions where high collision activities are expected.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗