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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

The Importance of HRA in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

Human performance is critical to crew safety during space missions. Humans interact with hardware and software during ground processing, normal flight, and in response to events. Human interactions with hardware and software can cause Loss of Crew and/or Vehicle (LOCV) through improper actions, or may prevent LOCV through recovery and control actions. Humans have the ability to deal with complex situations and system interactions beyond the capability of machines. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the occurrence of human failures that affect availability and reliability of complex systems. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure probabilities in a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides a more complete picture of system risks and risk contributions. A high-quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedures, human interfaces design, and the need for automation. Modeling human error has always been a challenge in part because performance data is not always readily available. For spaceflight, the challenge is amplified not only because of the small number of participants and limited amount of performance data available, but also due to the lack of definition of the unique factors influencing human performance in space. These factors, called performance shaping factors in HRA terminology, are used in HRA techniques to modify basic human error probabilities in order to capture the context of an analyzed task. Many of the human error modeling techniques were developed within the context of nuclear power plants and therefore the methodologies do not address spaceflight factors such as the effects of microgravity and longer duration missions. This presentation will describe the types of human error risks which have shown up as risk drivers in the Shuttle PRA which may be applicable to commercial space flight. As with other large PRAs of complex machines, human error in the Shuttle PRA proved to be an important contributor (~12 percent) to LOCV. An existing HRA technique was adapted for use in the Shuttle PRA, but additional guidance and improvements are needed to make the HRA task in space-related PRAs easier and more accurate. Therefore, this presentation will also outline plans for expanding current HRA methodology to more explicitly cover spaceflight performance shaping factors.

Hamlin, Teri↗
NASA NTRS2010

Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.

Thipphavong, David↗
NASA NTRS2012

UQTools: The Uncertainty Quantification Toolbox - Introduction and Tutorial

UQTools is the short name for the Uncertainty Quantification Toolbox, a software package designed to efficiently quantify the impact of parametric uncertainty on engineering systems. UQTools is a MATLAB-based software package and was designed to be discipline independent, employing very generic representations of the system models and uncertainty. Specifically, UQTools accepts linear and nonlinear system models and permits arbitrary functional dependencies between the system s measures of interest and the probabilistic or non-probabilistic parametric uncertainty. One of the most significant features incorporated into UQTools is the theoretical development centered on homothetic deformations and their application to set bounding and approximating failure probabilities. Beyond the set bounding technique, UQTools provides a wide range of probabilistic and uncertainty-based tools to solve key problems in science and engineering.

Kenny, Sean P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Shape Memory Composite Hybrid Hinge

There are two conventional types of hinges for in-space deployment applications. The first type is mechanically deploying hinges. A typical mechanically deploying hinge is usually composed of several tens of components. It is complicated, heavy, and bulky. More components imply higher deployment failure probability. Due to the existence of relatively moving components among a mechanically deploying hinge, it unavoidably has microdynamic problems. The second type of conventional hinge relies on strain energy for deployment. A tape-spring hinge is a typical strain energy hinge. A fundamental problem of a strain energy hinge is that its deployment dynamic is uncontrollable. Usually, its deployment is associated with a large impact, which is unacceptable for many space applications. Some damping technologies have been experimented with to reduce the impact, but they increased the risks of an unsuccessful deployment. Coalescing strain energy components with shape memory composite (SMC) components to form a hybrid hinge is the solution. SMCs are well suited for deployable structures. A SMC is created from a high-performance fiber and a shape memory polymer resin. When the resin is heated to above its glass transition temperature, the composite becomes flexible and can be folded or packed. Once cooled to below the glass transition temperature, the composite remains in the packed state. When the structure is ready to be deployed, the SMC component is reheated to above the glass transition temperature, and it returns to its as-fabricated shape. A hybrid hinge is composed of two strain energy flanges (also called tape-springs) and one SMC tube. Two folding lines are placed on the SMC tube to avoid excessive strain on the SMC during folding. Two adapters are used to connect the hybrid hinge to its adjacent structural components. While the SMC tube is heated to above its glass transition temperature, a hybrid hinge can be folded and stays at folded status after the temperature is reduced to below its glass transition temperature. After the deployable structure is launched in space, the SMC tube is reheated and the hinge is unfolded to deploy the structure. Based on test results, the hybrid hinge can achieve higher than 99.999% shape recovery. The hybrid hinge inherits all of the good characteristics of a tape-spring hinge such as simplicity, light weight, high deployment reliability, and high deployment precision. Conversely, it eliminates the deployment impact that has significantly limited the applications of a tape-spring hinge. The deployment dynamics of a hybrid hinge are in a slow and controllable fashion. The SMC tube of a hybrid hinge is a multifunctional component. It serves as a deployment mechanism during the deployment process, and also serves as a structural component after the hinge is fully deployed, which makes a hybrid hinge much stronger and stiffer than a tape-spring hinge. Unlike a mechanically deploying hinge that uses relatively moving components, a hybrid hinge depends on material deformation for its packing and deployment. It naturally eliminates the microdynamic phenomenon.

Fang, Houfei↗
NASA NTRS2015

Common Cause Failure Modeling

Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFS are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused by: system environments; manufacturing; transportation; storage; maintenance; and assembly, as examples. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, the effects can be reduced, but they are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and CCF (dependent) failure and data is limited, especially for launch vehicles. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NASA's Safety and Mission Assurance Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MFSC) is using generic data from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's database of common cause failures at nuclear power plants to estimate CCF due to the lack of a more appropriate data source. There remains uncertainty in the actual magnitude of the common cause risk estimates for different systems at this stage of the design. Given the limited data about launch vehicle CCF and that launch vehicles are a highly redundant system by design, it is important to make design decisions to account for a range of values for independent and CCFs. When investigating the design of the one-out-of-two component redundant system for launch vehicles, a response surface was constructed to represent the impact of the independent failure rate versus a common cause beta factor effect on a system's failure probability. This presentation will define a CCF and review estimation calculations. It gives a summary of reduction methodologies and a review of examples of historical CCFs. Finally, it presents the response surface and discusses the results of the different CCFs on the reliability of a one-out-of-two system.

Hark, Frank↗
NASA NTRS2016

Common Cause Failure Modeling

Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFS are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused by: system environments; manufacturing; transportation; storage; maintenance; and assembly, as examples. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, the effects can be reduced, but they are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and CCF (dependent) failure and data is limited, especially for launch vehicles. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NASA's Safety and Mission Assurance Directorate at Marshal Space Flight Center (MFSC) is using generic data from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's database of common cause failures at nuclear power plants to estimate CCF due to the lack of a more appropriate data source. There remains uncertainty in the actual magnitude of the common cause risk estimates for different systems at this stage of the design. Given the limited data about launch vehicle CCF and that launch vehicles are a highly redundant system by design, it is important to make design decisions to account for a range of values for independent and CCFs. When investigating the design of the one-out-of-two component redundant system for launch vehicles, a response surface was constructed to represent the impact of the independent failure rate versus a common cause beta factor effect on a system's failure probability. This presentation will define a CCF and review estimation calculations. It gives a summary of reduction methodologies and a review of examples of historical CCFs. Finally, it presents the response surface and discusses the results of the different CCFs on the reliability of a one-out-of-two system.

Hark, Frank↗
NASA NTRS2015

Inclusion of Radiation Environment Variability in Total Dose Hardness Assurance Methodology

Variability of the space radiation environment is investigated with regard to parts categorization for total dose hardness assurance methods. It is shown that it can have a significant impact. A modified approach is developed that uses current environment models more consistently and replaces the design margin concept with one of failure probability.

radiation hardness assurance↗
NASA NTRS2017

Uncertainty Quantification of the FUN3D-Predicted NASA CRM Flutter Boundary

A nonintrusive point collocation method is used to propagate parametric uncertainties of the flexible Common Research Model, a generic transport configuration, through the unsteady aeroelastic CFD solver FUN3D. A range of random input variables are considered, including atmospheric flow variables, structural variables, and inertial (lumped mass) variables. UQ results are explored for a range of output metrics (with a focus on dynamic flutter stability), for both subsonic and transonic Mach numbers, for two different CFD mesh refinements. A particular focus is placed on computing failure probabilities: the probability that the wing will flutter within the flight envelope.

Stanford, Bret K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Failure Bounding And Sensitivity Analysis Applied To Monte Carlo Entry, Descent, And Landing Simulations

In the study of entry, descent, and landing, Monte Carlo sampling methods are often employed to study the uncertainty in the designed trajectory. The large number of uncertain inputs and outputs, coupled with complicated non-linear models, can make interpretation of the results difficult. Three methods that provide statistical insights are applied to an entry, descent, and landing simulation. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed in terms of the insights gained versus the computational cost. The first method investigated was failure domain bounding which aims to reduce the computational cost of assessing the failure probability. Next a variance-based sensitivity analysis was studied for the ability to identify which input variable uncertainty has the greatest impact on the uncertainty of an output. Finally, probabilistic sensitivity analysis is used to calculate certain sensitivities at a reduced computational cost. These methods produce valuable information that identifies critical mission parameters and needs for new technology, but generally at a significant computational cost.

Gaebler, John A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification of Modeled Electron Backstreaming Failure for the NEXT Ion Thruster

Excessive electron back streaming is one of the primary life-limiting failure modes for gridded ion thrusters. Physics-based modeling of the optics grid erosion and electron back streaming margins is augmented with statistical uncertainty quantification techniques to generate a life expectancy distribution of this particular failure mechanism for the NEXT ion thruster. Generation of distributions instead of a single point estimate provide a more comprehensive picture of thruster failure probabilities and life expectation for various mission applications.

Yim, John T.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Risk and Performance Assessment of Generic Mission Architectures: Showcasing the Artemis Mission

A has initiated a strong push to return face. In this work, we astronaut assess performance and risk for proposed mission architectures using a new Mission Architecture Risk Assessment (MARA) tool. The MARA tool can produce statistics about the availability of components and overall performance of the mission considering potential failures of any of its components. In a Monte Carlo approach, the tool repeats the mission simulation multiple times while a random generator lets modules fail according to their failure rates. The results provide statistically meaningful insights into the overall performance of the chosen architecture. A given mission architecture can be freely replicated in the tool, with the mission timeline and basic characteristics of employed mission modules (habitats, rovers, power generation units, etc.) specified in a configuration file. Crucially, failure rates for each module need to be known or estimated. The tool performs an event-driven simulation of the mission and accounts for random failure events. Failed modules can be repaired, which takes crew time but restores operations. In addition to tracking individual modules, MARA can assess the availability of predefined functions throughout the mission. For instance, the function of resource collection would require a rover to collect the resources, a power generation unit to charge the rover, and a resource processing module. Together, the modules that are required for a given function are called a functional group. Similarly, we can assess how much crew time is available to achieve a mission benefit (e.g. research, building a base, etc) as opposed to spending crew time on repairs. Here we employ the method on the proposed NASA Artemis mission. Artemis aims to return United States astronauts to the lunar surface by 2024. Results provide insights into mission failure probabilities, up- and downtime for individual modules and crew-time resources spent on the repair of failed modules. The tool also allows us to tweak the mission architecture in order to find setups that produce more favorable mission performance. As such, the tool can be an aid in improving the mission architect abling cost-benefit analysis for mission improvement.

Rumpf, Clemens M.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Hybrid Thermally Efficient Core (HyTEC) HyTEC Phase 1 – Combustor Final Report

The objective of the HyTEC – Combustor Technology project is to develop technology for a compact, low emissions, rich-burn combustor that maintains a high-level of durability. To accomplish this, the combustor will incorporate CMC liners and a CMC Dome to enable improved air utilization for mixing and NOx reduction. In particular, three technology areas were matured: metallic swirler attachment to the CMC dome, Nickel diffusion in CMC, and EBC advancements with improved durability. The maturation of these technology areas is critical to successfully designing a combustor for an engine intended to demonstrate increased thermal efficiency with integrated high-power density-core engine technologies. As part of the project, multiple swirler attachment architectures were matured through the design process, manufactured, and tested in simulated engine conditions. These architectures utilized two different approaches to attachment: a pressure loaded approach and a clamped approach. Each approach required testing at simulated engine conditions to mature the technology. These tests were developed to ensure that the probable failure mechanisms for each architecture were assessed relative to its long-term durability. After successfully testing both approaches, the pressure loaded approach was chosen based on its simplicity and its similarity to the attachment approach used on lean burn combustors. Finally, this successful testing resulted in the swirler attachment technology achieving TRL 4 status. Another aspect of concern with the metallic swirler attachment is the potential for nickel diffusion into the CMC to cause durability shortfalls. A series of tests were completed to understand both the amount of nickel that is expected to diffuse into the CMC and the effect this diffusion will have on mechanical properties of the CMC. After successfully completing this testing, the reduction in local mechanical properties was found to not have an impact on the overall durability of the CMC Dome. To further improve the overall durability, three different EBC coating architectures were also studied. One of these coatings being the current state of the art for CMC liners with the other two being proposed improvements. Coupons were produced using each coating and subjected to a series of laboratory testing. One coating was found to have an overall superior durability in laboratory testing and survived rig testing without indication of degradation. This successful testing resulted in the EBC technology achieving TRL 5 status. Overall, a design approach was successfully down-selected that achieves both the TPM requirements and the need for TRL 4+ status. This design incorporates a pressure loaded swirler attachment with an improved EBC coating (Architecture 1). This combination allows the continued use of a CMC dome and results in an improved durability for the proposed compact core combustor.

CMC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fission Product Transport in TRISO Particles and Pebbles

This document demonstrates completion of the goals described in the technical narrative of the FOA project titled: ”Modeling and Simulation Development Pathways to Accelerating KP-FHR Licensing” regarding fission product transport in the Kairos-proposed fuel pebble by INL and Kairos Power. Showcased in this report are code developments and simulations in BISON that extend the state of the art in computation and understanding of fission product transport in a TRISO fuel particle and pebble. These enhancements lay the foundation for making predictions of fission product transport that can be used as input in the fuel licensing process. This was achieved by installing existing fuel material models originally used in PARFUME, developing a new failure probability method that is efficient and multi-dimensional, employing material homogenization, and expanding verification and validation simulations to demonstrate the efficacy of the work. All this work is leveraged to spotlight the main deliverable; a three-dimensional model and corresponding demonstration simulation of a pebble, which will serve as the starting point for models used to predict fission product release.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1983

Reliability analysis and fault-tolerant system development for a redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit

A methodology is developed and applied for quantitatively analyzing the reliability of a dual, fail-operational redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit (RSDIMU). A Markov evaluation model is defined in terms of the operational states of the RSDIMU to predict system reliability. A 27 state model is defined based upon a candidate redundancy management system which can detect and isolate a spectrum of failure magnitudes. The results of parametric studies are presented which show the effect on reliability of the gyro failure rate, both the gyro and accelerometer failure rates together, false alarms, probability of failure detection, probability of failure isolation, and probability of damage effects and mission time. A technique is developed and evaluated for generating dynamic thresholds for detecting and isolating failures of the dual, separated IMU. Special emphasis is given to the detection of multiple, nonconcurrent failures. Digital simulation time histories are presented which show the thresholds obtained and their effectiveness in detecting and isolating sensor failures.

Motyka, P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance Capability and Automated Platform: Technical Report 1

Due to continuing global energy market trends, driven heavily by the abundant preserves of natural gas, there is an immediate need to reduce costs associated with operation and maintenance (O&M) for the current domestic nuclear power industry and for future reactor developments. This is to ensure that nuclear power generation remains an economically competitive and viable option in the energy market. O&M costs include labor-intensive preventive maintenance (PM) programs, which involve manually-performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequency and time-based replacement of assets, irrespective of their condition. This has resulted in an expensive, labor-centric business model to achieve high capacity factors. Fortunately, there are technologies (advanced sensors, data analytics, and risk assessment methodologies) that can enable the transition from a labor-centric business model to a technology-centric business model. The technology-centric business model will result in a significant reduction of PM activities, laying the foundation for real-time condition assessment of plant assets, reducing overall labor and part costs. To enable this transition, PKMJ Technical Services LLC is partnering with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Idaho National Laboratory (operated by the Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC) and the Public Services Enterprise Group (PSEG) Nuclear, LLC in the Integrated Risk-Informed Condition-Based Maintenance Capability and Automated Platform Project. In this report, the configuration of a digital cloud platform using Microsoft Azure is discussed, data from the PSEG Salem Nuclear Generating Station Units 1 & 2 are imported into a digital cloud platform, and the data is used for an evaluation of several key areas: cost impact analysis, risk-informed model development, and preventive maintenance strategy optimization. First, the cost impact analysis reviews which plant assets are potential good candidates for condition-based monitoring. Next, INL utilized the data in their local environment to develop the risk-informed model; which provides estimates of failure rates and probability of failures of assets based upon their past performance. The developed model is performed on assets selected from the cost impact analysis. Lastly, engineers assess the preventive maintenance strategy for the selected assets at PSEG against maintenance strategies in the nuclear industry for similar assets to potentially identify acceptable justification for the extension of current maintenance frequencies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probability of brittle failure

A methodology was developed for collecting statistically representative data for crack initiation and arrest from small number of test specimens. An epoxy (based on bisphenol A diglycidyl ether and polyglycol extended diglycyl ether and cured with diethylene triamine) is selected as a model material. A compact tension specimen with displacement controlled loading is used to observe multiple crack initiation and arrests. The energy release rate at crack initiation is significantly higher than that at a crack arrest, as has been observed elsewhere. The difference between these energy release rates is found to depend on specimen size (scale effect), and is quantitatively related to the fracture surface morphology. The scale effect, similar to that in statistical strength theory, is usually attributed to the statistics of defects which control the fracture process. Triangular shaped ripples (deltoids) are formed on the fracture surface during the slow subcritical crack growth, prior to the smooth mirror-like surface characteristic of fast cracks. The deltoids are complementary on the two crack faces which excludes any inelastic deformation from consideration. Presence of defects is also suggested by the observed scale effect. However, there are no defects at the deltoid apexes detectable down to the 0.1 micron level.

Kim, A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Frame synchronization for a channel with different data rates

In some communication links, different data rates are used at different times on the same channel and each is assigned a separate frame synchronization (sync) marker. The frame search is completed within a finite number of frame intervals once both phase-lock and bit-sync are achieved because the incoming data rate can change. The probability of failure to frame-lock, and an upper bound of probability of false frame-lock in a frame search mode are derived for a communication link with a 10 to the -5th bit error probability. The probability of failure to detect data-rate change and the probability of false detection of data-rate change in a frame-lock mode are discussed. In a frame-lock mode, the probability of failure to detect data-rate change and probability detection of data-rate change an equal to 4.96 x 10 to the -12th. A frame-lock device can be used for the Space Station Freedom Ku-band return link.

Kwon, Hyuck M.↗