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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Factors Governing Cloud Growth and Entrainment Rates in Shallow Cumulus and Cumulus Congestus During GoAmazon2014/5

Shallow cumulus and cumulus congestus clouds play an important role in the large-scale tropical circulation by mixing heat and moisture vertically and preconditioning the environment for deeper convection. Different representations of these shallow clouds account for much of the spread in General Circulation Model (GCMs) climate sensitivity, potentially because of how entrainment is represented in GCM parameterizations. This study uses observations from the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) mobile facility deployed at Manacapuru, Brazil, during the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) Campaign. Environmental thermodynamic profiles and observations of cloud top height (CTH) are used to constrain an entraining plume model to estimate bulk entrainment rates (ERs). Estimates of CTH are obtained from a combination of vertically pointing W-band ARM cloud radar and 1,290 MHz Radar Wind Profiler observations. A combination of radiosonde, microwave radiometer profiler, and microwave radiometer observations provides new best estimates of the environmental thermodynamic state. We quantify uncertainty in ERs considering uncertainties in estimated CTH, environmental thermodynamic properties, and assumed initial parcel characteristics. We find ERs ranging from 0.16 to 2.8 km -1 with an average of 0.58 ± 0.10 km -1 over a selected population of 469 shallow cumulus and cumulus congestus clouds. Using the retrieved estimates of ER, we evaluate several entrainment closures that are currently used in atmospheric models or have been proposed based on theory or large eddy simulation. Finally, entrainment rates in cumulus clouds are weakly correlated with low-level buoyancy, cloud depth, and cloud size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stereo Camera Deployment in Support of TRACER (Field Campaign Report)

An improved understanding of the salient environmental controls on cloud formation, evolution, and eventual dissipation is critical to address ongoing challenges with cloud process and parameterization representations in global climate and Earth system models. One goal for the recent U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) campaign was to collect a comprehensive data set that enabled such convective cloud process studies and key demonstrations for those controls that influenced cloud life cycle (i.e., aerosols, thermodynamics) in the Houston, Texas region. To help accomplish this, ARM instrumentation during TRACER was tasked with tracking a large number of individual, isolated convective cells – and to follow the evolution of these cells at high spatiotemporal resolution to characterize changes in cloud dynamic and microphysical properties. Since Houston experiences a range of convective clouds, it was known that the standard ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) instruments may not be sufficient to completely document initiating, transient, or dissipating low- or shallow-cloud behaviors that were also expected during this campaign (in terms of sensitivity, resolution, and/or operational availability). As one partial solution, a supplemental stereo camera deployment (this sub-campaign) was requested to augment the ARM AMF instrumentation to better address shallow and shallow-to-deep transitional types of cloud process drivers during TRACER (ARM stereo cameras for clouds [STEREOCAM]; Romps and Öktem 2018). The primary scientific focus was the relationships between cloud properties and the ambient conditions, which points to several key TRACER science questions including: ‘What is the relationship between cloud size or updraft intensity to the environmental wind shear and/or humidity?’ Overall, the ARM TRACER stereo camera deployment demonstrated unique effectiveness in observing a wide range of critical shallow, congestus, and transitioning or time-evolving cloud characteristics. The data sets from these cameras include information on the clouds' horizontal dimensions, elevations, and depths, while also enabling potential products for cloud initiation and dissipation rates, and vertical velocities. Stereo cameras simultaneously inform on cloud life cycle stage and spatial properties such as cloud fractional coverage, which should provide complementary information for ARM users when combined with TRACER cloud radars, lidar, and/or other profiling sensors. Moreover, camera products offer large-eddy simulation (LES),-scale-appropriate cloud coverage, depth, and spatial variability estimates, while opening additional avenues to challenge difficult process questions on cloud updrafts/entrainment and their covariability with environmental controls such as wind shear and humidity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation on cloud vertical structures based on Ka-band cloud radar observations at Wuhan in Central China

Based on vertically pointing observations of Ka-band frequency-modulated continuous millimeter wave cloud radar (MMCR) in 2020, we investigate cloud vertical structures at Wuhan in central China. Case comparison indicates that the cloud top locations in the MMCR observation are largely consistent with those in satellite data. The precipitation has the occurrence frequency of 9.5% over the year, with the maximum value of 16.3% in July and the submaximal value of 14.7% in January, showing the significant influences of monsoons on precipitation at Wuhan. As the humid, cloudy and rainy climate, the probability of precipitation and non-precipitation clouds increases gradually from 53.9% in January to a large value of 71.5% in July. The non-precipitation clouds have the probability of 44.5% in the year, with two prominent peaks at the reflectivities of -35 to -30 dBZ around 12 km in summer and - 37– -32 dBZ around 10 km in spring. The cloud top can reach the heights of 14.49, 16.62, 13.38 and 11.73 km from spring to winter, respectively. The monthly mean cloud layer thickness is the largest (2.18 km) in May and September, and the smallest (1.36 km) in November. The seasonally averaged base and top heights and thickness of clouds have small diurnal variations. The high cloud is predominant in the warm months from May to September, and in the other cool months, the middle cloud has the most fraction. The quantitative investigation of clouds is helpful in improving the cloud parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurement and Analysis of the Microphysical Properties of Arctic Precipitation Showing Frequent Occurrence of Riming

Detailed ground-based observations of snow are scarce in remote regions, such as the Arctic. Here, Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera measurements of over 55,000 solid hydrometeors—obtained during a two-year period from August 2016 to August 2018 at Oliktok Point, Alaska—are analyzed and compared to similar measurements from an earlier experiment at Alta, Utah. In general, distributions of hydrometeor fall speed, fall orientation, aspect ratio, flatness, and complexity (i.e., riming degree) were observed to be very similar between the two locations, except that Arctic hydrometeors tended to be smaller. In total, the slope parameter defining a negative exponential of the size distribution was approximately 50% steeper in the Arctic as at Alta. Sixty-six percent of particles were observed to be rimed or moderately rimed with some suggestion that riming is favored by weak boundary layer stability. On average, the fall speed of rimed particles was not notably different from aggregates. However, graupel density and fall speed increase as cloud temperatures approach the melting point.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the influence of particle size on the glass transition temperature and viscosity of secondary organic material

Abstract Atmospheric aerosols can assume liquid, amorphous semi-solid or glassy, and crystalline phase states. Particle phase state plays a critical role in understanding and predicting aerosol impacts on human health, visibility, cloud formation, and climate. Melting point depression increases with decreasing particle diameter and is predicted by the Gibbs–Thompson relationship. This work reviews existing data on the melting point depression to constrain a simple parameterization of the process. The parameter $$\xi $$ ξ describes the degree to which particle size lowers the melting point and is found to vary between 300 and 1800 K nm for a wide range of particle compositions. The parameterization is used together with existing frameworks for modeling the temperature and RH dependence of viscosity to predict the influence of particle size on the glass transition temperature and viscosity of secondary organic aerosol formed from the oxidation of $$\alpha $$ α -pinene. Literature data are broadly consistent with the predictions. The model predicts a sharp decrease in viscosity for particles less than 100 nm in diameter. It is computationally efficient and suitable for inclusion in models to evaluate the potential influence of the phase change on atmospheric processes. New experimental data of the size-dependence of particle viscosity for atmospheric aerosol mimics are needed to thoroughly validate the predictions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interactions of laser-driven tin ejecta microjets over phase transition boundaries

Ejecta microjets offer an experimental methodology to study high-speed particle laden-flow interactions, as microjets consist of millions of particulates traveling at velocities of several kilometers per second and are easily generated by most common shock drives. Previous experiments on the OMEGA Extended Performance laser found that collisions between two counter-propagating laser-driven tin ejecta microjets varied as a function of drive pressure; jets generated near shock pressures of 10 GPa passed through each other without interacting, whereas jets generated at shock pressures of over 100 GPa interacted strongly, forming a cloud around the center interaction point. In this paper, we present a more systematic scan of tin ejecta microjet collisions over intermediate pressure regimes to identify how and at what shock pressure interaction behavior onsets. Radiographs of interacting microjets at five different laser drive energies qualitatively demonstrate that interaction behavior onsets slowly as a function of laser drive energy. Quantitative mass and density metrics from each radiograph provide trends on jet characteristics and collisional mass dispersion. It is observed that jetting mass, jet densities, and mass dispersion increase with increasing drive pressures and that the increased jet density at the higher drive energies may account for the increased mass dispersion. This work provides an important step in the understanding of tin ejecta microjet collisions and paves the way for future studies on the physics dominating high-speed particle-laden flow interactions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Machine‐Learning‐Assisted Stochastic Cloud Population Model as a Parameterization of Cumulus Convection

Abstract A machine‐learning‐assisted stochastic cloud population model is coupled with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to represent fluctuations in the cloud‐base mass flux associated with the life cycles and interactions among cumulus convection cells. In this cloud population model, the size distribution and the associated cloud‐base mass flux of the convective cells are related to their previous state and to the change in the total convective area via a transition function. The convective area tendency in turn is assumed to depend on the cloud‐base mass flux that is resolved by the host WRF model. The transition function is represented by a single hidden‐layer neural network trained by the evolution of convective cell size distributions in a 1‐km grid‐spacing WRF simulation run over the Australian Monsoon region. At every grid point of the host model, the cloud population model predicts the cell size and cloud‐base mass flux distributions from which a random sample of cells is fed to an entraining parcel model that calculates precipitation as well as the associated liquid water potential temperature and total moisture tendencies. These tendencies are averaged over the cells and provided to the host model. Several regional simulations are performed over tropical and midlatitude domains to test this as a potential approach to scale‐aware parameterization. It is shown that such an approach could be a new promising path to simulating realistic precipitation statistics and propagation of precipitation associated with the Madden‐Julian Oscillation while maintaining realistic depictions of the diurnal cycle over both land and ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vertical Gradient of Size-Resolved Aerosol Compositions over the Arctic Reveals Cloud Processed Aerosol in-Cloud and above Cloud

Arctic aerosols play a significant role in the aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions, but ground-based measurements are insufficient to explain the interaction of aerosols and clouds in a vertically stratified Arctic atmosphere. This study shows the vertical variability of aerosol particle composition via tethered balloon system at Oliktok Point, Alaska, in August 2019, at different cloud layers for two case studies (background aerosol condition and polluted condition). Multi-modal micro-spectroscopy analysis of samples during the background case reveals a broadening of chemically specific size distribution above cloud top with a high abundance of sulfate and core-shell morphology, suggesting possible cloud processing of aerosols. The pollution case also indicates a broadening of size distribution at the upper cloud layer with the dominance of carbonaceous aerosol, which suggests the potential of carbonaceous aerosols for Arctic cloud formation. Here this study provides insights into the vertical profile of Arctic aerosols on cloud formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigate the Security of Electric Vehicle (EV) Ecosystem Applications

Apps that run on mobile devices are one of critical components of the electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem and pose possible threat actor points of entry that may impact the trust and security of EV charging systems in the future. Mobile apps often rely on communication between cloud servers and users, thereby creating potential points of entry for cyberattacks. Although app stores such as Apple App Store or Google Play Store generally test the security of apps, the cyber aspects may not be sufficient for many entities including DOD, federal fleets, and commercial entities. A more thorough inspection and the ability to influence developers is imminently needed. This research studies security attributes and vulnerabilities of a sample of mobile applications that support key user functions in the EV ecosystem. The study shows that all analyzed apps have security risks, categorized as either high or medium or both and a comprehensive cybersecurity guideline for developing mobile apps is necessary.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface-based observations of cold-air outbreak clouds during the COMBLE field campaign

Abstract. Cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) are characterized by extreme air–sea energy exchanges and low-level convective clouds over large areas in the high-latitude oceans. As such, CAOs are an important component of the Earth's climate system. The CAOs in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) deployment of the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) provided the first comprehensive view of CAOs using a suite of ground-based observations at the northern coast of Norway. Here, cloud and precipitation observations from 13 CAO cases during COMBLE are analyzed. A vertical air motion retrieval technique is applied to the Ka-band ARM Zenith-pointing Radar (KAZR) observations. The CAO cumulus clouds are characterized by strong updrafts with magnitudes between 2–8 m s−1, vertical extents of 1–3 km, and horizontal scales of 0.25–3 km. A strong relationship between our vertical air velocity retrievals and liquid water path (LWP) measurements is found. The LWP measurements exceed 1 kg m−2 in strong updraft areas, and the vertical extent of the updraft correlates well with the LWP values. The CAO cumulus clouds exhibit eddy dissipation rate values between 10−3 and 10−2 m2 s−3 in the lowest 10 km of the atmosphere, and using a radar Doppler spectra technique, evidence of secondary ice production is found during one of the cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cloud Droplet Measurement System for the ARM Tethered Balloon System (TBS) Field Campaign Report

The Mesa Photonics' cloud droplet measurement system (CDMS) performs in situ measurement of droplet size distribution and droplet number density in clouds. These characteristics are important cloud microphysical properties that are critical input parameters for atmospheric models and are also useful for proper calibration and validation of performance of other atmospheric measurement instrumentation. This small campaign was the first project (out of two) that involved integration of the CDMS into the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s tethered balloon system (TBS) and its initial testing at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. The follow-up campaign (AFC07016) involved testing of the CDMS under relevant conditions at the third ARM Mobile Facility (AMF3) at Oliktok Point, Alaska and making in situ measurements in clouds. The goal of this small field campaign was to deploy the CDMS on the ARM TBS, demonstrate its integrity and compatibility with the TBS, and test the wireless telecommunication system in preparation for subsequent in-cloud measurements at ARM’s North Slope of Alaska (NSA) observatory at Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow). The specific technical objectives included: (1) Integration of the Mesa Photonics' CDMS into the ARM TBS, (2) testing of the wireless telecommunication system of the CDMS, (3) evaluating the data acquisition software and image processing algorithms especially under high-background-illumination conditions, and (4) testing the ruggedness of the instrument's optical alignment and other performance characteristics. All objectives have been successfully met. The mounting hardware was designed and built mostly at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), which allowed reliable mounting of the CDMS on the TBS and co-locating the CDMS with other instruments. The field tests were performed by the principal investigator (PI) in collaboration with the TBS operational crew led by D. Dexheimer. The field testing demonstrated good compatibility of the CDMS with the TBS. During the TBS flights, the crew did not experience any operational issues with the CDMS. The instrument demonstrated reliable operational characteristics, including sufficient battery life and good thermal management. The wireless telecommunication system has been successfully tested at TBS flight altitudes of up to 1000 m. During all flights, the CDMS raw data were wirelessly transmitted to the ground station and processed in real time. The ruggedness of the instrument's optical alignment was evaluated by performing calibration of the CDMS (using Mesa Photonics' fixed-size monodisperse droplet generator) before and after the campaign. The calibration was stable within the instrument's measurement precision. In summary, the campaign demonstrated good compatibility of the Mesa Photonics' CDMS with the ARM TBS. The flight tests confirmed the mechanical integrity of the CDMS and stability of its optical layout, as well as reliability of the wireless telecommunication system. Successful completion of this campaign provided a solid basis for the next campaign (AFC07016, November 2020), that involved testing of the CDMS during in-cloud TBS flights at AMF3 at Oliktok Point.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The response of the Amazon ecosystem to the photosynthetically active radiation fields: integrating impacts of biomass burning aerosol and clouds in the NASA GEOS Earth system model

The Amazon experiences fires every year, and the resulting biomass burning aerosols, together with cloud particles, influence the penetration of sunlight through the atmosphere, increasing the ratio of diffuse to direct photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) reaching the vegetation canopy and thereby potentially increasing ecosystem productivity. In this study, we use the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model with coupled aerosol, cloud, radiation, and ecosystem modules to investigate the impact of Amazon biomass burning aerosols on ecosystem productivity, as well as the role of the Amazon's clouds in tempering this impact. The study focuses on a 7-year period (2010–2016) during which the Amazon experienced a variety of dynamic environments (e.g., La Niña, normal years, and El Niño). The direct radiative impact of biomass burning aerosols on ecosystem productivity – called here the aerosol diffuse radiation fertilization effect – is found to increase Amazonian gross primary production (GPP) by 2.6 % via a 3.8 % increase in diffuse PAR (DFPAR) despite a 5.4 % decrease in direct PAR (DRPAR) on multiyear average during burning seasons. On a monthly basis, this increase in GPP can be as large as 9.9 % (occurring in August 2010). Consequently, the net primary production (NPP) in the Amazon is increased by 1.5 %, or ~92 Tg C yr -1 – equivalent to ~37 % of the average carbon lost due to Amazon fires over the 7 years considered. Clouds, however, strongly regulate the effectiveness of the aerosol diffuse radiation fertilization effect. The efficiency of this fertilization effect is the highest in cloud-free conditions and linearly decreases with increasing cloud amount until the cloud fraction reaches ~0.8, at which point the aerosol-influenced light changes from being a stimulator to an inhibitor of plant growth. Nevertheless, interannual changes in the overall strength of the aerosol diffuse radiation fertilization effect are primarily controlled by the large interannual changes in biomass burning aerosols rather than by changes in cloudiness during the studied period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Arctic low-level clouds and precipitation from above – a radar perspective

Most Arctic clouds occur below 2 km altitude as revealed by CloudSat satellite observations. However, recent studies suggest that the relatively coarse spatial resolution, low sensitivity, and blind zone of the radar installed on CloudSat may not enable it to comprehensively document low-level clouds. We investigate the impact of these limitations on the Arctic low- level cloud fraction, which is the amount of cloudy points with respect to all points as a function of height, derived from CloudSat radar observations. For this purpose, we leverage highly resolved vertical profiles of low-level cloud fraction derived from downlooking Microwave Radar/radiometer for Arctic Clouds (MiRAC) radar reflectivity measurements. MiRAC has been operated during four aircraft campaigns taking place in the vicinity of Svalbard during different times of the year and covering more than 25,000 km. This allows us to study the dependence of CloudSat limitations on different synoptic and surface conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-axis Accelerometry and Rotation Sensing using a Point Source Atom Interferometer

A point source atom interferometer (PSI) is a device where atoms are split and recombined by applying a temporal sequence of Raman pulses during the expansion of a cloud of cold atoms behaving approximately as a point source. Unlike a conventional light pulse atom interferometer, the PSI can produce a signal that corresponds to multi-axis rotation only, independent of acceleration. In addition, it can be used to measure acceleration along one direction, independent of rotation. Here, we describe a modified PSI that can be used to measure multi-axis rotation and multi-axis acceleration. Specifically, this type of PSI can be used to measure two-axes rotation around the directions perpendicular to the light pulses, as well as the acceleration in all three directions, with only one pair of Raman beams. Using two pairs of Raman beams in orthogonal directions sequentially, such a scheme would enable the realization of a complete atom interferometric inertial measurement unit.

Li, Jinyang↗
DOE OSTI2020

A2Cloud‐RF : A random forest based statistical framework to guide resource selection for high‐performance scientific computing on the cloud

Summary This article proposes a random‐forest based A2Cloud framework to match scientific applications with Cloud providers and their instances for high performance. The framework leverages four engines for this task: PERF engine, Cloud trace engine, A2Cloud‐ext engine, and the random forest classifier (RFC) engine. The PERF engine profiles the application to obtain performance characteristics, including the number of single‐precision (SP) floating‐point operations (FLOPs), double‐precision (DP) FLOPs, x87 operations, memory accesses, and disk accesses. The Cloud trace engine obtains the corresponding performance characteristics of the selected Cloud instances including: SP floating point operations per second (FLOPS), DP FLOPS, x87 operations per second, memory bandwidth, and disk bandwidth. The A2Cloud‐ext engine uses the application and Cloud instance characteristics to generate objective scores that represent the application‐to‐Cloud match. The RFC engine uses these objective scores to generate two types of random forests to assist users with rapid analysis: application‐specific random forests (ARF) and application‐class based random forests. The ARF consider only the input application's characteristics to generate a random forest and provide numerical ratings to the selected Cloud instances. To generate the application‐class based random forests, the RFC engine downloads the application profiles and scores of previously tested applications that perform similar to the input application. Using these data, the RFC engine creates a random forest for instance recommendation. We exhaustively test this framework using eight real‐world applications across 12 instances from different Cloud providers. Our tests show significant statistical agreement between the instance ratings given by the framework and the ratings obtained via actual Cloud executions.

Samuel, David↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of ARM tethered-balloon system instrumentation for supercooled liquid water and distributed temperature sensing in mixed-phase Arctic clouds

A tethered-balloon system (TBS) has been developed and is being operated by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility in order to collect in situ atmospheric measurements within mixed-phase Arctic clouds. Periodic tethered-balloon flights have been conducted since 2015 within restricted airspace at ARM's Advanced Mobile Facility 3 (AMF3) in Oliktok Point, Alaska, as part of the AALCO (Aerial Assessment of Liquid in Clouds at Oliktok), ERASMUS (Evaluation of Routine Atmospheric Sounding Measurements using Unmanned Systems), and POPEYE (Profiling at Oliktok Point to Enhance YOPP Experiments) field campaigns. The tethered-balloon system uses helium-filled 34 m 3 helikites and 79 and 104 m 3 aerostats to suspend instrumentation that is used to measure aerosol particle size distributions, temperature, horizontal wind, pressure, relative humidity, turbulence, and cloud particle properties and to calibrate ground-based remote sensing instruments. Supercooled liquid water content (SLWC) sondes using the vibrating-wire principle, developed by Anasphere Inc., were operated at Oliktok Point at multiple altitudes on the TBS within mixed-hase clouds for over 200 h. Sonde-collected SLWC data were compared with liquid water content derived from a microwave radiometer, Ka-band ARM zenith radar, and ceilometer at the AMF3, as well as liquid water content derived from AMF3 radiosonde flights. The in situ data collected by the Anasphere sensors were also compared with data collected simultaneously by an alternative SLWC sensor developed at the University of Reading, UK; both vibrating-wire instruments were typically observed to shed their ice quickly upon exiting the cloud or reaching maximum ice loading. Temperature sensing measurements distributed with fiber optic tethered balloons were also compared with AMF3 radiosonde temperature measurements. Combined, the results indicate that TBS-distributed temperature sensing and supercooled liquid water measurements are in reasonably good agreement with remote sensing and radiosonde-based measurements of both properties. From these measurements and sensor evaluations, tethered-balloon flights are shown to offer an effective method of collecting data to inform and constrain numerical models, calibrate and validate remote sensing instruments, and characterize the flight environment of unmanned aircraft, circumventing the difficulties of in-cloud unmanned aircraft flights such as limited flight time and in-flight icing.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗
DOE OSTI2023

Southern Ocean Low Cloud and Precipitation Phase Observed During the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE)

Shallow cloud decks residing in or near the boundary layer cover a large fraction of the Southern Ocean (SO) and play a major role in determining the amount of shortwave radiation reflected back to space from this region. In this article, we examine the macrophysical characteristics and thermodynamic phase of low clouds (tops <3 km) and precipitation using ground-based ceilometer, depolarization lidar and vertically-pointing W-band radar measurements collected during the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) from April 2016 to March 2017. During MICRE, low clouds occurred ~65% of the time on average (slightly more often in austral winter than summer). About 2/3 of low clouds were cold-topped (temperatures ≤0°C). These were thicker and had higher bases on average than warm-topped clouds. 83%–88% of cold-topped low clouds were liquid phase at cloud base (depending on the season). The majority of low clouds had precipitation in the vertical range 150–250 m below cloud base, a significant fraction of which did not reach the surface. Phase characterization is limited to the period between April 2016 and November 2016. Small-particle (low-radar-reflectivity) precipitation (which dominates precipitation occurrence) was mostly liquid below-cloud, while large-particle precipitation (which dominates total accumulation) was predominantly mixed/ambiguous or ice phase. Approximately 40% of cold-topped clouds had mixed/ambiguous or ice phase precipitation below (with predominantly liquid phase cloud droplets at cloud base). Below-cloud precipitation with radar reflectivity factors below about -10 dBZ were predominantly liquid, while reflectivity factors above about 0 dBZ were predominantly ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗