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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Shrubs Strongly Influence Snow Properties in Two Subarctic Watersheds

Understanding changes in snow distribution in permafrost ecosystems is fundamental to predicting their response to future climate change. The expansion of tall shrubs into tundra ecosystems can trap snow and insulate permafrost ecosystems during the winter, but the overall insulation effect is dependent upon many ecosystem properties. To study shrub–snow–ground interactions, small temperature sensors were deployed at two research sites on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska, USA, during the 2019–2020 winter. Snow temperatures were used to extrapolate multiple metrics, including freezing n-factors, the snow insulation effect, snow cover duration, and the length of the snowmelt period. Statistical and spatial analysis showed that shrub patches were a dominant control on all snow metrics. Within shrub patches, average ground temperatures were 2.1°C warmer, snow persisted 50 days longer, snow insulation was double, and a longer, later spring snowmelt period occurred compared to nonshrubby areas. Site-level differences contributed relatively little to variation in snow metrics, indicating that shrub presence is an overarching driver of snow–ground interactions at the locations examined. Shrub expansion, which is anticipated under climate change, will strongly impact future permafrost distribution and Arctic energy, water, and carbon cycles through snow–shrub–ground feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Salinity on Ground Ice Distribution Across an Arctic Coastal Polygonal Tundra Environment

The heterogeneous distribution of ground ice in the Arctic is a key driver of uneven ground subsidence as permafrost thaws, significantly impacting infrastructure and surface/subsurface hydrology. These topographic and hydrological changes contribute to major uncertainties in energy and carbon fluxes and storage in a warming Arctic. This study aims to improve our understanding of the controls on ground ice and organic matter distribution within the top 3 m of permafrost in coastal polygonal tundra near Utqiagvik, Alaska. To this end, we apply a neural network approach to bulk density distributions derived from nondestructive X-ray tomography of soil cores, trained with laboratory analyses, to improve the resolution and spatial coverage of estimates of dry bulk density, ice content, and organic matter content. In addition, we use capacitively coupled geophysical imaging to map soil electrical conductivity and salinity variations. The results show that sedimentary deposits from ocean transgressions, along with subsequent ice wedge polygon geomorphological processes, jointly influence the distribution of ice content at various scales. The impact of the latter decreases with depth, whereas the influence of salinity and sedimentary history increases. Although the controls on the distribution of soil organic matter content (g/cm 3 ) remain unclear, the pronounced heterogeneity in bulk density strongly influences its calculation from laboratory mass fraction measurements (g/g). From a methodological perspective, the interdependencies among soil components and the need for increased data coverage underscore the value of high-resolution density measurements, such as using X-ray tomography. Overall, this study emphasizes the importance of considering salinity constraints on ice content distribution in coastal permafrost regions. The results are expected to aid in the development of data products and process representations in geomorphological and ecosystem models.

Dafflon, Baptiste [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Glacial to periglacial transition at the end of the last ice age in the subtropical semiarid Andes

Atmospheric warming and circulation reorganization at the end of the last ice age represent the most important climate change of the last 100,000 years and provide an opportunity to uncover how the southern subtropics cryosphere responded to strong changes in the global climate system. Extensive mapping and chronologic records on cryogenic landforms to better understand the association and interactions between glaciers and viscous creep of ice-rich permafrost landforms (rock glaciers) are widely missing in the region. In this paper, we reconstruct the geomorphic imprint of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Termination I in the high Andes of the Río Limarí Basin (30–31°S) in the subtropical semiarid Andes of Chile. 74 new 10 Be surface exposure dating ages constrain the timing of glaciation, deglaciation, and glacial to periglacial transition. Glacial advances occurred first by 41.2 ± 0.6 – 35.0 ± 0.5 ka during Marine Isotope Stage 3, but probably earlier also; then, a second advance occurred during the global LGM between 24.2 ± 0.4 and 18.6 ± 0.2 ka. Deglaciation by 17.6 ± 0.2 ka left extensive hummocky moraines on the main valleys. Characteristic patterns of furrows and ridges typical of rock glaciers and solifluction superimposed on the LGM hummocky moraine indicate ice-rich permafrost in glacial deposits likely between 15.5 ± 0.3 and 13.6 ± 0.3 ka. We propose that moraines deposited by LGM debris-covered glaciers served as a niche for strong seasonal frost and permafrost creep, which substantially modified the original landforms. Finally, our results contribute to a better understanding of major transformations in an ice-rich high mountain area of the southern hemisphere where the interplay of temperature and precipitation changes drove glacial to periglacial transitions.

10Be surface exposure dating↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flood Estimation under Snowmelt and Rain-on-Snow Processes in Alaska: A Military Installation Perspective

Accurate flood estimation in snow-dominated and high-latitude regions remains challenging due to complex interactions among rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow (ROS) processes, which are not captured in conventional precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves. This study evaluates the Next-Generation IDF (NG-IDF) framework, an extension of PREC-IDF that incorporates total water available for runoff (precipitation minus changes in snow water equivalent), in two contrasting Alaskan watersheds of Department of Defense (DoD) significance: the Little Chena River Basin (LCRB) in interior Alaska, a tributary of the Chena River that flows through Fort Wainwright and near Eielson Air Force Base, and the Upper Ship Creek Basin (USCB), which drains Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage. Using long-term SNOTEL observations and event-based rainfall-runoff modeling, NG-IDF and PREC-IDF flood estimates were compared against observation-based flood frequency analyses. Results show that NG-IDF consistently reduces flood-estimation bias by 15–20% relative to PREC-IDF, particularly for snowmelt- and ROS-dominated events. In the interior LCRB, permafrost conditions can substantially amplify flood responses during snowmelt events, an effect not explicitly represented in standard design tools. These findings demonstrate that NG-IDF provides a more physically consistent and transferable framework for flood estimation in cold regions, with potential relevance to mission-critical DoD installation resilience. Projected increases in ROS frequency and permafrost degradation across Alaska further emphasize the need to integrate physics-based hydrologic models that explicitly represent snow and permafrost processes to enhance design resilience and operational readiness for military and other critical infrastructure.

Yan, Hongxiang (ORCID:000000022387403X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soil Temperature and Moisture within the Kougarok Fire Complex, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 86, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019-2023

Daily averages of soil temperature and moisture measured once every hour at different heights located at Intensive Monitoring Stations within the Kougarok Fire Complex, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 86 site. Data were retrieved annually from 2019-2023. Package contains 21 *.CSV data files plus a file level metadata *.CSV, data dictionary *.CSV, data file inventory *.CSV, and sensor location site map *.JPG. Data files have header rows, NaN fields indicate invalid or missing data, and negative vertical offsets are above ground.The Kougarok tundra fire complex (KFC) is located north of Nome and the Kigluaik Mountains, near Quartz Creek and the Kougarok River. The site is accessed by foot from the end of the Nome-Taylor Highway (mile marker 86; also called the Kougarok or Beam Road). The KFC burned in six major fires in the decades since 1950 (Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, unpublished data). Lightning ignited five of these fires (1971, 1997, 2015, and 2019) and one was human caused (2002). The mosaic of overlapping fire scars allows for the study of repeat fires in the tundra which, until recently, was not a common phenomenon outside the boreal forest in Alaska. Our reference unburned tundra fire site is south of the KFC located at mile marker 80 of the Nome-Taylor Highway.The two most recent fires are the Mingvk Lake (2015; 21,698 acres burned from 7/27/2015 to 9/28/2015) and Garfield Creek (2019; 422 acres burned from 7/31/2019 to 8/20/19). The Mingvk Lake fire scar includes areas that burned 1-4x (1971, 1997, 2002), while the entirety of the Garfield Creek fire scar has burned 2x previously (1971, 2002).Previous research at the KFC focused on permafrost (Liljedahl et al. 2007; Narita et al. 2015; Iwahana et al. 2016; Tsuyuzaki, Iwahana, and Saito 2017) and vegetation (Narita et al. 2015; Hollingsworth et al. 2021) response to fire. The central Seward Peninsula is characterized by continuous permafrost with a thickness of 15 to 30 m and a mean active layer thickness of 56 cm (Hinzman et al. 2003). Sloping hills with mixed shrub–tussock tundra and tussock tundra vegetation in the uplands are characteristic of the region. Three micrometeorological towers near the Kougarok field site recorded a mean annual temperature of −2.4°C, mean January temperature of −23.1°C, mean July temperature of +11°C, and mean summer rainfall (June–August) of 94 mm from 2000 to 2006 (Liljedahl et al. 2007).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Arctic Coastal Erosion: Modeling and Experimentation

Increasing Arctic coastal erosion rates have put critical infrastructure and native communities at risk while also mobilizing ancient organic carbon into modern carbon cycles. Although the Arctic comprises one-third of the global coastline and has some of the fastest eroding coasts, current tools for quantifying permafrost erosion are unable to explain the episodic, storm-driven erosion events. Our approach, mechanistically coupling oceanographic predictions with a terrestrial model to capture the thermo-mechanical dynamics of erosion, enables this much needed treatment of transient erosion events. The Arctic Coastal Erosion Model consists of oceanographic and atmospheric boundary conditions that force a coastal terrestrial permafrost environment in Albany (a multi-physics based finite element model). An oceanographic modeling suite (consisting of WAVEWATCH III, Delft3D-FLOW, and Delft3D-WAVE) produced time-dependent surge and run-up boundary conditions for the terrestrial model. In the terrestrial model, a coupling framework unites the mechanical and thermal aspects of erosion. 3D stress/strain fields develop in response to a plasticity model of the permafrost that is controlled by the frozen water content determined by modeling 3D heat conduction and solid-liquid phase change. This modeling approach enables failure from any allowable deformation (block failure, slumping, etc.). Extensive experimental work has underpinned the ACE Model development including field campaigns to measure in situ ocean and erosion processes, strength properties derived from thermally driven geomechanical experiments, as well as extensive physical composition and geochemical analyses. Combined, this work offers the most comprehensive and physically grounded treatment of Arctic coastal erosion available in the literature. The ACE model and experimental results can be used to inform scientific understanding of coastal erosion processes, contribute to estimates of geochemical and sediment land-to-ocean fluxes, and facilitate infrastructure susceptibility assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Hydrological-Thermal-Biogeochemical Modeling for Predicting Arctic Carbon Emissions (CH4PACE)

The Arctic, with nearly 1,700 billion metric tons of carbon stored in its soils, is experiencing significant warming trends that raise concerns about the potential release of greenhouse gases, particularly methane. This report investigates the conversion of carbon stored in Arctic soils and permafrost into methane and its subsequent atmospheric release over the coming decades. Recent data indicate a rise in global methane concentrations, highlighting the importance of understanding the mechanisms of methane generation under anaerobic conditions prevalent in thawing permafrost. Our study employs a multi-faceted approach that integrates fieldwork, benchtop experiments, and numerical simulations to explore the subsurface hydrological-thermal-biogeochemical systems influencing methane emissions. We focus on the relationship between microbial activity in decomposing organic matter under oxygen-limited conditions and the transport of methane out of these saturated wetland soils. Key hydrological parameters, including permeability, porosity, and thermal conductivity, were measured on soil samples from Fairbanks, Alaska, and used to parameterize PFLOTRAN, a coupled hydrological-thermal-reactive transport simulator. Our model enables prediction of the evolution of the active layer and its impact on methane production and release. Our findings underscore the critical need for a mechanistic understanding of methane dynamics in permafrost environments to improve predictions of methane emissions in Earth systems models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surface Meteorology at Teller Mile 47 Watershed, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, Ongoing from 2018

Meteorological data are currently being collected at one location at the Teller Mile 47 (TL_MM47) Research Basin Site, Seward Peninsula (N64 58' 36.918", W166 12' 32.67", 67 meters above sea level). The site was installed and initial measurements started in September 2018 and it has operated continuously since then. The meteorological station is co-located with a continuous snow depth sensor and two soil pits for subsurface temperature and moisture measurements. These data are being collected to better understand the energy dynamics above the active layer and permafrost. They complement in-situ snow and soil measurements also at this location. The data could also be used as supporting measurements for other research and modeling activities. There are 35 comma separated value format (*.csv) files provided, where each file contains the full data for an individual parameter (e.g. air temperature at 1.5 meters above the ground surface (teller_m47_air_temperature_150cm_ags_Avg.csv) or soil temperature 20 centimeters below ground surface (teller_m47_dry_soil_pit_temperature_20cmbgs_Avg.csv)) plus the time in Universal Coordinated Time (UTC) and Alaska Standard Time (UTC time minus nine hours). The site was installed and initial measurements started in September 2018. It has been operated continuously since. Primary data gaps are due to battery failure or sensor failure. These data are being collected to better understand the surface energy dynamics above the active layer and permafrost. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 10-year research effort (2012-2022) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy?s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy?s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Getting to the Root of Plant–Mediated Methane Emissions and Oxidation in a Thermokarst Bog

Vascular plants are important in the wetland methane cycle, but their effect on production, oxidation, and transport has high uncertainty, limiting our ability to predict emissions. In a permafrost–thaw bog in Interior Alaska, we used plant manipulation treatments, field–deployed planar optical oxygen sensors, direct measurements of methane oxidation, and microbial DNA analyses to disentangle mechanisms by which vascular vegetation affect methane emissions. Vegetation operated on top of baseline methane emissions, which varied with proximity to the thawing permafrost margin. Emissions from vegetated plots increased over the season, resulting in cumulative seasonal methane emissions that were 4.1–5.2 g m –2 season –1 greater than unvegetated plots. Mass balance calculations signify these greater emissions were due to increased methane production (3.0–3.5 g m –2 season –1 ) and decreased methane oxidation (1.1–1.6 g m –2 season –1 ). Minimal oxidation occurred along the plant–transport pathway, and oxidation was suppressed outside the plant pathway. Our data indicate suppression of methane oxidation was stimulated by root exudates fueling competition among microbes for electron acceptors. This contention is supported by the fact that methane oxidation and relative abundance of methanotrophs decreased over the season in the presence of vegetation, but methane oxidation remained steady in unvegetated treatments; oxygen was not detected around plant roots but was detected around silicone tubes mimicking aerenchyma; and oxygen injection experiments suggested that oxygen consumption was faster in the presence of vascular vegetation. In conclusion, root exudates are known to fuel methane production, and our work provides evidence they also decrease methane oxidation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions

The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0°C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation—factors associated with energy balance—were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Continuous soil temperature and soil deformation measurements, Teller road Mile 47, Nome, Alaska.

The dataset comprises Soil Temperature and Deformation monitoring data gathered from a watershed situated along the Nome-Teller road at Mile 47 in Alaska. Its primary objective is to enhance comprehension of deformation mechanisms in permafrost environments by using 51 probes designed following Wielandt et al. (2022). The dataset comprises a description of Probe_ID, Location, start time, end time and probe length in the "ProbesLocations_StartEndDates.csv" file, the 51 data files encapsulated within "Data_files.zip" and the computed deformation for 2023 and 2022 in "Deformation_T47.zip".Each file in Data_files.zip is named as followed "ProbeId_StartMonth_EndMonth.csv". Within each file, the initial column denotes the timestamp in UTC, followed by the sensor’s battery voltage and temperature and acceleration values (X, Y, Z) in subsequent columns. The data collection frequency is set at 30-minute intervals. Each file in Deformation_T47.zip is named as followed "ProbeId_Temp_def_year.csv". Within each file, the initial column denotes the timestamp in UTC, followed by the temperature at each sensor and cumulative deformation from last to first sensor in subsequent columns. The data collection is daily averaged.This dataset forms an integral component of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Variability and Controls of Riverine Dissolved Organic Carbon Exported to Arctic Coastal Margins of North America (Final Report)

This project involved implementation and application of a coupled permafrost hydrology and dissolved organic carbon process models to investigate how spatial and seasonal variations in terrestrial hydrology and soil freeze/thaw dynamics influence the mobilization, loading, and export of organic carbon to the stream network for selected arctic basins across northern Alaska and northwest Canada. The model simulations were constrained by detailed observations of in- stream chemistry, soil active layer profile moisture and temperature dynamics, streamflow, soil carbon inventories and satellite microwave remote sensing based assessments of surface soil freeze-thaw dynamics. We developed and applied the numerical modeling and data analysis, incorporating observed data for calibration and validation, in order to investigate the terrestrial hydrology, permafrost dynamics, and associated DOC production and loading to rivers across a region encompassing watersheds draining to the coast. The project produced six publications and three datasets archived in public repositories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Frost Table Elevation across a Low-Centered and a High-Centered Polygon, Mapped using Ground Penetrating Radar, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2015

Ground Penetrating Radar, active layer thickness point measurements, and ground elevation surveys were conducted on a low-centered and a high-centered polygon in Utqiagvik (Barrow), AK (on October 2nd, 2015) to map frost table topography and evaluate its influence on hydrological flow. Data were collected to improve our understanding of the topography of the permafrost table across polygons which may have a major influence on hydrology. This dataset includes 2 zip files containing the raw data, 2 csv files of processed data, and a pdf user guide.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of machine learning to characterize gas hydrate reservoirs in Mackenzie Delta (Canada) and on the Alaska north slope (USA)

Here, artificial neural network-trained models were used to predict gas hydrate saturation distributions in permafrost-associated deposits in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend on the Alaska North Slope (ANS), USA and at the Mallik research site in the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada. The database of Logging-While-Drilling (LWD) and wireline logs collected at five wells (Mount Elbert, Ignik Sikumi, and Kuparuk 7–11–12 wells at ANS, plus 2L-38 and 5L-38 wells at the Mallik research site) includes more than 10,000 depth points, which were used for training, validation, and testing the machine learning (ML) models. Data used in training the ML models include the well logs of density, porosity, electrical resistivity, gamma radiation, and acoustic wave velocity measurements. Combinations of two or three out of these five well logs were found to reliably predict the gas hydrate saturation with accuracy varying between 80 and 90% when compared to the gas hydrate saturations derived from Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)-based technique. The ML models trained on data from three ANS wells achieved high fidelity predictions of gas hydrate saturation at the Mallik site. The results obtained in this study indicate that ML models trained on data from one geological basin can successfully predict key reservoir parameters for permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations within another basin. A generalized approach for selecting a well log combination that can improve model accuracy is discussed. Overall, the study outcome supports earlier work demonstrating that ML models trained on non-NMR well logs are a viable alternative to physics-driven methods for predicting gas hydrate saturations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying pH buffering capacity in acidic, organic-rich Arctic soils: Measurable proxies and implications for soil carbon degradation

Dynamic pH change promoted by biogeochemical reactions in Arctic tundra soils can be a major control on the production and release of CO 2 and CH 4 , which contribute to rising global temperatures. Large quantities of soil organic matter (SOM) in these soils are susceptible to microbial decomposition, leading to pH changes during permafrost thaw. Soil pH buffering capacity (β) modulates the extent of pH change but has not been thoroughly studied and represented in predictive ecosystem scale biogeochemical models in Arctic tundra soils. In this study, we generated titration curves for 21 acidic tundra soils from three Arctic sites across northern Alaska, United States of America. Geochemical and hydrological soil properties were evaluated, and correlations with β were developed. Strong correlations between β and both gravimetric water content (Θ g ) (R 2 = 0.847, p < 0.001) and soil water retention (SWR) (R 2 = 0.849, p = 0.001) indicate that the ability of soil to retain water could be associated with its buffering properties. Correlations between β and soil organic carbon (SOC) and cation exchange capacity (CEC) were also explored, and relationships to SWR are discussed. These correlations were then used with existing soil databases reporting SOC, CEC, and SWR to estimate β across Alaska soils. We further demonstrated the quantitative relationships between β and the simulated rates of biogeochemical reactions and show that lower β leads to higher soil pH and more CH 4 production. Overall, our study provides simple proxies for β in Arctic soils and highlights the importance and implications of representing soil buffering in predictive models, thereby enabling quantitative coupling between pH dynamics associated with biogeochemical reactions. Integrating β into predictive models of Arctic biogeochemical cycling may reduce model uncertainty and further our understanding of permafrost SOM degradation accelerated by warming.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gas Production from Hot Water Circulation through Hydraulic Fractures in Methane Hydrate-Bearing Sediments: THC-Coupled Simulation of Production Mechanisms

Methane hydrates, widely found in permafrost and deep marine sediments, have great potential as a future energy 6 source. Conventional production schemes perform poorly for challenging hydrate reservoirs with low permeability. We propose an 7 efficient production scheme by combining hydraulic fracturing from horizontal wells and hot water circulation through fractures. A 8 fully coupled thermo-hydro-chemical (THC) model is developed to simulate the key physical processes during gas production from 9 a hydrate reservoir representative of typical geological settings in Shenhu, South China Sea. We found that the gas production 10 process has two distinct stages divided by thermal breakthrough: a relatively short prebreakthrough stage and a postbreakthrough 11 stage yielding stable gas production. Heat advection along and near the hydraulic fracture dominates the prebreakthrough stage, 12 whereas conduction-driven thermal recovery in the volume around fractures dominates the postbreakthrough stage. We identified 13 that the steady-state injection temperature has a strong effect on the performance of the proposed scheme while the fluid mass 14 circulation rate has a moderate impact beyond a threshold. The proposed scheme proves to be efficient and robust over a range of 15 reservoir conditions with respect to initial hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability, including their spatial heterogeneities, 16 thereby offering a promising solution for challenging reservoir conditions.

gas hydrate, fracture flow, gas production, numeri↗
DOE OSTI2023

High‐Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Preserve the Arctic

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been shown in climate models to reduce some impacts of global warming in the Arctic, including the loss of sea ice, permafrost thaw, and reduction of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass; SAI at high latitudes could preferentially target these impacts. In this study, we use the Community Earth System Model to simulate two Arctic‐focused SAI strategies, which inject at 60°N latitude each spring with injection rates adjusted to either maintain September Arctic sea ice at 2030 levels (“Arctic Low”) or restore it to 2010 levels (“Arctic High”). Both simulations maintain or restore September sea ice to within 10% of their respective targets, reduce permafrost thaw, and increase GrIS surface mass balance by reducing runoff. Arctic High reduces these impacts more effectively than a globally focused SAI strategy that injects similar quantities of SO 2 at lower latitudes. However, Arctic‐focused SAI is not merely a “reset button” for the Arctic climate, but brings about a novel climate state, including changes to the seasonal cycles of Northern Hemisphere temperature and sea ice and less high‐latitude carbon uptake relative to SSP2‐4.5. Additionally, while Arctic‐focused SAI produces the most cooling near the pole, its effects are not confined to the Arctic, including detectable cooling throughout most of the northern hemisphere for both simulations, increased mid‐latitude sulfur deposition, and a southward shift of the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. For these reasons, it would be incorrect to consider Arctic‐focused SAI as “local” geoengineering, even when compared to a globally focused strategy.

Lee, Walker Raymond↗
DOE OSTI2023

Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process‐Based Modeling Analysis

Abstract Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 from lakes larger than 0.1 km 2 , accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 58%–86% growth in emissions from lakes. Our model sensitivity analysis indicates that additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost may enhance methane production under warming in the Arctic. Warming enhanced methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the net release from global lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗