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At least 253 records · Page 14

Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales

Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.

Mann, Michael E.↗

Occupant-driven end use load models for demand response and flexibility service participation of residential grid-interactive buildings

As demand response becomes increasingly used as a tool to support improved grid flexibility, it is important to consider that there are many potential types of energy end uses that may be used to support such flexibility. Residential appliances, often accounting for 30 % or more of residential energy use, are a currently untapped source of demand flexibility, particularly when aggregated together across homes. To date there has been very limited analysis of residential appliances for use as grid-interactive loads. As such, this research uses disaggregated energy end use data for 564 households, to model the electricity demand flexibility potential of the use of residential dishwashers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, ovens, and ranges (oven + stovetop) on both weekdays and weekends. This includes both at the building level, as well as aggregated to the grid level, specifically the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region. This study was divided into two parts. Part 1 focuses on determining appliance-level loads, and Part 2, which involves aggregation to the grid. Findings suggest that among the studied appliances, clothes dryers provide the greatest demand reduction potential for most times of the day, followed by dishwashers and clothes washers. The maximum potential reduction for clothes dryers is found to be approximately at 11:00 a.m. and this potential sustains throughout most of the daytime period. When considering the willingness of households to participate, based on a survey of households in the Midwest region, clothes dryers still have the most potential for demand reduction. The availability of appliances for load modulation on weekdays and weekends indicates similar load reduction potential for all appliances. Overall, the results of this study suggest that there is an opportunity for shifting appliance usage to optimize grid efficiency and enhance demand response strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Influence of temperature and the role of chromium on the kinetics of sulfidation of 310 stainless steel

The sulfidation of 310 stainless steel was studied over the temperature range from 910 K to 1285 K. By adjusting the ratio of hydrogen sulfide, variations in sulfur potential were obtained. The effect of temperature on sulfidation was determined at three different sulfur potentials: 39/sqNm, 0.014/sqNm, and 0.00015/sqNm. All sulfide scales contained one or two surface layers in addition to a subscale. The second outer layer (OL-II), furthest from the alloy, contained primarily Fe-Ni-S. The first outer layer (OL-I), nearest the subscale, contained FE-Cr-S. The subscale consisted of sulfide inclusions in the metal matrix. At a given temperature and sulfur potential, the weight gain data obeyed the parabolic rate law after an initial transient period. The parabolic rate constants obtained at the sulfur potential of 39/sqNm did not show a break when the logarithm of the rate constant was plotted as a function of the inverse of absolute temperature. Sulfidation carried out at sulfur potentials below 0.02/sqNm, however, did show a break at 1145 K, which is termed as the transition temperature. This break was found to be associated with the changes which had occurred in the Fe:Cr ratio of OL-I. Below the transition temperature the activation energy was found to be approximately 125 kj/mole. Above the transition temperature the rate of sulfidation decreased with temperature but dependent on the Fe:Cr ratio in the iron-chromium-sulfide layers of the OL-I. A reaction mechanism consistent with the experimental results has been proposed.

Rao, D. B.↗

The Spaceguard Survey - Protecting the earth from cosmic impacts

The conclusions of the NASA International Near-Earth-Object Detection Workshop (May 1991-January 1992) are summarized. Near-earth asteroids and short-period comets constitute about 90 percent of potential earth-impacting projectiles. The greatest risk is from those with diameters greater than 1 km. The objective of a near-earth object survey is to find such objects, calculate their long-term orbital trajectories, and identify any that may impact the earth over the next several centuries. There will generally be a period of at least several decades to take corrective action if any potential earth-impactors are found. A region of space extending outward from the earth to approximately the inner edge of the main asteroid belt must be monitored. Detection can be by reflected sunlight or infrared. Though faint, the objects should be readily detectable with ground-based telescopes, and thus there is no need for a more expensive space-based system.

Morrison, David↗

Periodic Orbits As Viable Landing Solutions with an Abort Option at Europa

Moons of the outer planets offer some of the greatest potential scientific treasures in the solar system, yet they are exceedingly hard to reach. A previous work found many low-energy landing trajectories to various moons in the solar system by studying the unstable manifolds of Lyapunov, vertical, and halo periodic orbits. A potential shortcoming of this approach is the lack of abort options for a landing mission. If anything goes wrong prior to landing, there may not be an solution if the spacecraft has already departed the periodic orbit. Similarly, a solution which could return to its initially planned landing site could also perform observation flybys prior to landing to ensure the safety of the site. In the current work, we discuss a new strategy for finding periodic orbits that tangentially intersect the surface of Europa and are themselves either stable or nearly-stable. These qualities may allow certain periodic orbits to act as their own abort solutions or to closely observe their landing sites prior to landing. 18 such periodic orbits that have been identified so far are presented here.

Martin, W. Lo↗

Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Heavy-Duty Truck Incident and Inspection Data

Vehicular incidents, especially those involving tractor trailers, are increasing in number every year. These events are extremely costly for fleets, in terms of damage or loss of property, loss of efficiency, and certainly in terms of loss of life. Although the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for performing inspections, and fleet managers are encouraged to maintain their fleet and participate in regular inspections, it is uncertain whether these inspections are occurring at a frequency that is necessary to prevent incidents. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) of the DOT manages and maintains the Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS) dataset, which contains all incident and inspection data regarding commercial vehicles in the U.S. The purpose of this preliminary analysis was to explore the MCMIS dataset through spatiotemporal analyses, to uncover findings that may hint at potential improvements in the DOT inspection process and highlight location-specific trends in the dataset. These analyses are novel, as previous research using the MCMIS dataset only examined the data at the state or county level, not at a national scale. The results from the analyses pinpointed specific major metropolitan areas, namely Harris County (Houston), Texas, and three of the New York boroughs (Kings, Queens, and the Bronx), which were found to have increasing incident rates during the study period (2016–2020). An overview of potential causal factors contributing to this increase are provided as well as an overview of the inspection process, and suggestions for improvement relative to the highlighted locations in Texas and New York are also provided. Ultimately, it is suggested that the incorporation of advanced technology and automation may prove beneficial in reducing the occurrence of events that lead to incidents and may also help in the inspection process.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Thermal and hydraulic performance of volumetrically heated triply periodic minimal surface heaters

Advanced heat transfer surfaces, mainly Triply Periodic Minimal Surfaces (TPMSs) have great potential to increase heat transfer performance over traditional heat transfer surfaces due to their tortuous flow path and higher surface area-volume ratio. The emergence of additive manufacturing of nuclear fuel motivates experimental investigation of such advanced geometries in the context of a nuclear reactor core. Here, this study employed a novel method to explore the performance of gyroid and diamond TPMS geometries. Volumetrically heated heaters were additively manufactured from conductive polymer filament, and airflow was used to simulate the convective heat transfer from the core within a nuclear reactor. The mass flow and volumetric generation rates were varied, local Nusselt number correlations were obtained using embedded thermocouples to measure the solid and fluid temperature, and friction factor correlations were developed using differential pressure measurements. The gyroid TPMS presented a friction factor 1.5 times higher than the diamond TPMS and 90 times that of the rod bundle. TPMS geometries showed Nusselt numbers 8–10 times higher than that of the rod bundle, also maintaining colder internal temperatures, which suggested that they could sustain 250–275 % higher power density than the rod bundle for a given centerline temperature. Hence, having the potential to greatly increase the safety margins and power output of a nuclear reactor core with similar volume.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Comparison between the South Pacific Convergence Zone and South Atlantic Convergence Zone in January 1979

Using one of the FGGE data sets, the eddy potential and eddy kinetic energy budgets during the period of January 10-27, 1979 were derived for the regions containing the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. A complete set of energy equations developed by Brennan and Vincent (1980) was partitioned into zonal and eddy components; the eddy forms of energy were derived from a grid point's departure from the zonal average over a 5-deg latitude belt. The results of the analysis indicate that the eddy kinetic energy content (KE) is greater than the eddy available potential energy content (AE) throughout the period. Both AE and KE show large losses beginning when the SPCZ enters a decaying state: AE shows a gradual but slow decrease until after January 22, when it decreases rapidly; KE oscillates, reaching a maximum on January 22 before a rapid decrease.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

Cross Kingdom Analysis of Data Within the GeneLab Repository Identifies a Potential Conserved Response of Life to the Stress Associated with Spaceflight

It is important to determine the health risks and potential survival for astronauts associated with long-term space missions. This entails not only understanding the impact the space environment will have on humans, but also how it will affect other organisms needed for humans to survive in space such as plants. In addition, it has been reported in the literature that hundreds of genes seem to be conserved and/or transferred between different organisms from bacteria, archaea, fungi, microorganisms, and plants to animals. Since space travel involves humans in a closed environment over a long period of time, we hypothesize that potential conserved biological factors will occur between the different organisms in that environment possibly due to transfer of genes. Determining the conserved factors that are commonly being regulated in space can shed insight into possible universal master regulators and also determine the symbiotic relationship between the organisms in space. Utilizing NASA's GeneLab Data Repository (a rapidly expanding, curated clustering of spaceflight-related ‘omics-level datasets for all organisms), we were able to uncover a novel pathway and factors that were commonly shared between humans, mice, plants, C. Elegans, and drosophilas. Through ChIP-Seq enrichment analysis techniques utilizing various GeneLab datasets from each species that were flown in space, we found the following factors to be conserved across all species: oxidative stress, DNA damage (through GABPA/NRFs and NFY), SIX5, GTF2B and glutamine synthetase. Such commonalities would likely reflect the effects of factors such as microgravity and the increased radiation exposure inherent in spaceflight on basic physical processes shared by all biological systems at the cellular level. Differences between organismal responses revealed by GeneLab's data should also help understand the unique reactions to life in space that arise from the very different lifestyles of microbes, animals and plants.

Barker, Richard↗

Simulations of Interacting Binary Systems—Pathways to Radio-bright Gamma-Ray Burst Progenitors

Although the association of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) with massive stellar death is on firm footing, the nature of the progenitor system and the key ingredients required for a massive star to produce a GRB remain open questions. Here, we investigate the evolution of a 15–25M ⊙ massive star with a 10–15M ⊙ black hole (BH) using Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics. We quantify companion-influenced angular-momentum evolution over a stellar lifetime for orbital periods where tides are significant, varying stellar and BH masses, initial stellar spin, and accretion and dynamo prescriptions while tracking mass loss and angular momentum. The final spin is set by tidal torques versus stellar winds. For binaries that initially avoid Roche-lobe overflow, tides can spin up the star, but a late-stage expansion can drive tidal stripping; associated mass and angular-momentum loss can suppress spin-up. We find that massive-star BH binaries at comparable mass ratios may be potential GRB progenitors for short orbital periods (∼20–5 × 10 2 days) and long orbital periods (∼2 × 10 3 –4 × 10 3 days), where our suite of lifetime simulations reveals a favored parameter space with negligible mass loss and enough spin angular momentum to power a GRB jet. For initially nonrotating stars, this provides a lower limit on the final spin above a threshold estimate consistent with forming a postcollapse BH mass of 5–10M ⊙ with a spin parameter ≥ 0.5. For initially rapidly rotating stars, tidal interactions may sustain high spin when mass loss is negligible because the binary is not tidally synchronized.

Hernandez, Angel [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (↗

Distribution and activity of discrete emission areas on the nucleus of periodic Comet Swift-Tuttle

A general model is proposed which accounts for the dynamical evolution of the observed jets, envelopes and tail bands of periodic Comet Swift-Tuttle, the parent comet of the Perseid meteor stream, in terms of dust ejection from discrete active regions on the rotating nucleus. High-resolution drawings and measurements of cometary jets made upon the comet's first appearance in 1862 are used to infer a nuclear rotation period of 2.77 days, obliquity of 80 deg, and spin axis orientation with respect to the solar direction of 60 deg. The observed jets are attributed to eight discrete active regions covering not more than 1% of the cometary surface and producing bursts of duration of about 0.1 day. Calculations show that waning dust jets develop into envelopes and that old envelopes in turn become the observed tail bands. No evidence of truly violent explosions is found, and effects of active region outgassing on cometary orbital motion are negligible. Potential applications of the model to periodic Comet Halley and other comets are noted.

Sekanina, Z.↗

Modeling Wave Driven Non-linear Flow Oscillations: The Terrestrial QBO and a Solar Analog

The Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the zonal circulation observed in the terrestrial atmosphere at low latitudes is driven by wave mean flow interaction as was demonstrated first by Lindzen and Holton (1968), shown in a laboratory experiment by Plumb and McEwan (1978), and modeled by others (e.g., Plumb, Dunkerton). Although influenced by the seasonal cycle of solar forcing, the QBO, in principle, represents a nonlinear flow oscillation that can be maintained by a steady source of upward propagating waves. The wave driven non-linearity is of third or odd order in the flow velocity, which regenerates the fundamental harmonic itself to keep the oscillation going - the fluid dynamical analog of the displacement mechanism in the mechanical clock. Applying Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP) for gravity waves (GW), we discuss with a global-scale spectral model numerical experiments that elucidate some properties of the QBO and its possible effects on the climatology of the atmosphere. Depending on the period of the QBO, wave filtering can cause interaction with the seasonal variations to produce pronounced oscillations with beat periods around 10 years. Since the seasonal cycle and its variability influence the period of the QBO, it may also be a potent conduit of solar activity variations to lower altitudes. Analogous to the terrestrial QBO, we propose that a flow oscillation may account for the 22-year periodicity of the solar magnetic cycle, potentially answering Dicke (1978) who asked, "Is there a chronometer hidden deep inside the Sun?" The oscillation would occur below the convection region, where gravity waves can propagate. Employing a simplified, analytic model, Hines' DSP is applied to estimate the flow oscillation. Depending on the adopted horizontal wavelengths of GW's, wave amplitudes less than 10 m/s can be made to produce oscillating zonal flows of about 20 m/s that should be large enough to generate a significant oscillation in the magnetic field. For the large length scales of the Sun, the flow cycle period tends to be very long. The period, however, can be made to be 22 years, provided the buoyancy frequency (stability) is sufficiently small, thus placing the proposed flow near the base of the convection zone where a dynamo is now believed to operate.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

A preliminary review and evaluation of historical unrest and eruptive activity at Misti volcano, Arequipa, Peru

Since the Spanish arrived in Arequipa in the mid-16th century, 11 potential small-volume eruptions or periods of unrest are reported at Misti. Yet, documentation of these events is scant, often based upon secondary or tertiary sources, and has never been assessed using modern volcanological methods. As a result, Misti?s historical record contains significant uncertainty and iterated errors. We assess these events with modern volcanological knowledge and when possible return to primary published and archival sources. Additionally, we scrutinized historical newspapers, photos, and contemporary travelers? accounts to better understand the volcano?s activity since the early-19th century. Misti?s earliest reported activity in 1542CE illustrates the problems associated with the volcano?s historical record. The 1542CE event first appears in the literature in the late-19th century. Despite some uncertainty of its validity in these reports, it remains listed as a potential eruption. Numerous contemporaneous accounts document a major earthquake in Arequipa on 22 January 1582CE, causing major damage and widespread fear of an eruption. Upon investigation of the volcano, such fear was quickly dispelled. We suggest that Misti?s 1542CE event did not occur, rather its origin is the fear induced by the 1582CE tectonic earthquake and an iterated typographic error in the date. Historical documents also sometimes record when Misti was explicitly not active, such as in a letter from a resident of Arequipa published in 1872CE. Events are also missing from Misti?s reported history, such as a period of enhanced degassing in 1971CE that is recorded in newspaper articles and eye-witness accounts. In summary, we consider three of Misti?s reported events to be false, four to be possible but unlikely, three are likely, and the 1985CE degassing crisis certainly occurred. We further uncovered preliminary evidence of up to four additional degassing crises at the volcano during the 19th and 20th centuries.

Christopher Harpel↗

Staircase formation by resonant and non-resonant transport of potential vorticity

The E × B staircase is a quasi-periodic pattern of pressure profile corrugations. In this work, we present a new mechanism for E × B staircase formation that involves resonant transport versus non-resonant transport. We start from a potential vorticity evolution system and use quasi-linear theory, a model dispersion relation, and a bi-Lorentzian spectrum approximation, to construct the relation between the fluxes and the profiles. With these fluxes, we close the profile evolution equations and the extended turbulence intensity evolution equation, which together constitute a turbulence-profile evolution system. In this system, the Doppler effect from the E × B mean flow can cause resonance between trapped ion precession motion and the trapped ion mode, which drives a resonant transport contribution to the fluxes. The profiles will be flattened where the resonant transport is switched on. In contrast, for the regions of non-resonant transport, profiles are steeper. A quasi-periodic pattern of profile corrugation (the E × B staircase) spontaneously emerges in this system, which is the two states mentioned above, arranged as alternating layers in space. The feedback processes during the staircase pattern formation are identified. An estimate of the critical value of the boundary heat flux is obtained, above which the staircase formation will be triggered. An estimate scaling of the step size in the staircase pattern is obtained. The resonant turbulent transport is also a mechanism for collisionless saturation of zonal flow. Furthermore, this work is related to internal transport barrier formation and suggests some new scenarios, such as an enhanced confined L mode.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Dynamic Rupture Modeling of the M7.1, 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake

An important part of the simulation technique implemented in the strong motion prediction recipe developed in Japan, originally proposed by Irikura and Miyake (2011) is the earthquake rupture characterization that is based on established empirical scaling relationships between source parameters and seismic moment. These scaling relationships and rupture characterization are derived from recorded data and are tested by simulations. Recent analysis of results obtained with the Recipe for the 2016 M7.1 Kumamoto earthquake performed by several researchers, indicate that in order to reproduce near-fault long-period ground motions with permanent displacements, typical for earthquakes with surface rupturing, the recipe needs modifications. In particular, improvements are required in characterizing the rupture kinematics at shallow depths, above the seismogenic zone (Irikura et al., 2019). Modeling of rupture dynamics for recorded earthquakes, and numerical simulations for different rupture scenarios, provides physical constrains on slip evolution in time and space, which can be used in adjustments of empirical source scaling relationships for large crustal earthquakes. In this study we mainly focused on rupture dynamics modeling of the 2019 M7 Ridgecrest, California earthquake. The characterization of the kinematic rupture model derived from the dynamic rupture models of this earthquake can inform further refinements of rupture modeling proposed by the Recipe. Through different rupture scenarios we investigated potential relationships between characteristics of Long Period Ground Motion Generation Area (LMGA), used in the Recipe, and asperity depth and rupture initiation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ageostrophic winds in the severe strom environment

The period from 1200 GMT 10 April to 0000 GMT 11 April 1979, during which time several major tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, including the Wichita Falls tornado occurred was studied. A time adjusted, isentropic data set was used to analyze key parameters. Fourth order centered finite differences were used to compute the isallobaric, inertial advective, tendency, inertial advective geostrophic and ageostrophic winds. Explicit isentropic trajectories were computed through the isentropic, inviscid equations of motion using a 15 minute time step. Ageostrophic, geostrophic and total vertical motion fields were computed to judge the relative importance of ageostrophy in enhancing the vertical motion field. It is found that ageostrophy is symptomatic of those mass adjustments which take place during upper level jet streak propagation and can, in a favorable environment, act to increase and release potential instability over meso alpha time periods.

Moore, J. T.↗

Water hyacinths and alligator weeds for removal of lead and mercury from polluted waters

Removal of lead and mercury by water hyacinths (Eichhornia crassipes) (Mart.) Solms and alligator weeds (Alternanthera philoxeroides) (Mart.) Griesb. was investigated. Water hyacinths demonstrated the ability to remove 0.176 mg of lead and 0.150 mg of mercury per gram of dry plant material from distilled water and river water in a 24-hour period. One acre of water hyacinths is potentially capable of removing 105.6 grams of lead and 90.0 grams of mercury per day. Alligator weeds removed 0.101 mg of lead per gram of dry plant material in a 24-hour period. This same plant also demonstrated the ability to remove a minimum of 0.153 mg of mercury per gram of dry plant material in a six hour period.

Wolverton, B. C.↗

Charged-Particle Bound States in Periodic Boxes

We consider the binding energy of a two-body system with a repulsive Coulomb interaction in a finite periodic volume. We define the finite-volume Coulomb potential as the usual Coulomb potential, except that the distance is defined the shortest separation between the two bodies in the periodic volume. We investigate this problem in one and three-dimensional periodic boxes and derive the asymptotic behavior of the volume dependence for bound states with zero angular momentum in terms of Whittaker functions. We benchmark our results against numerical calculations and show how the method can be used to extract asymptotic normalization coefficients for charged-particle bound states. Furthermore, the results we derive here have immediate applications for calculations of atomic nuclei in finite periodic volumes for the case where the leading finite-volume correction is associated with two charged clusters.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗