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At least 253 records · Page 14

What Can We Learn From Proton Recoils about Heavy-Ion SEE Sensitivity?

The fact that protons cause single-event effects (SEE) in most devices through production of light-ion recoils has led to attempts to bound heavy-ion SEE susceptibility through use of proton data. Although this may be a viable strategy for some devices and technologies, the data must be analyzed carefully and conservatively to avoid over-optimistic estimates of SEE performance. We examine the constraints that proton test data can impose on heavy-ion SEE susceptibility.

probabilistic risk assessment↗

The Potential for Ambient Plasma Wave Propulsion

A truly robust space exploration program will need to make use of in-situ resources as much as possible to make the endeavor affordable. Most space propulsion concepts are saddled with one fundamental burden; the propellant needed to produce momentum. The most advanced propulsion systems currently in use utilize electric and/or magnetic fields to accelerate ionized propellant. However, significant planetary exploration missions in the coming decades, such as the now canceled Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter, are restricted by propellant mass and propulsion system lifetimes, using even the most optimistic projections of performance. These electric propulsion vehicles are inherently limited in flexibility at their final destination, due to propulsion system wear, propellant requirements, and the relatively low acceleration of the vehicle. A few concepts are able to utilize the environment around them to produce thrust: Solar or magnetic sails and, with certain restrictions, electrodynamic tethers. These concepts focus primarily on using the solar wind or ambient magnetic fields to generate thrust. Technically immature, quasi-propellantless alternatives lack either the sensitivity or the power to provide significant maneuvering. An additional resource to be considered is the ambient plasma and magnetic fields in solar and planetary magnetospheres. These environments, such as those around the Sun or Jupiter, have been shown to host a variety of plasma waves. Plasma wave propulsion takes advantage of an observed astrophysical and terrestrial phenomenon: Alfven waves. These are waves that propagate in the plasma and magnetic fields around and between planets and stars. The generation of Alfven waves in ambient magnetic and plasma fields to generate thrust is proposed as a truly propellantless propulsion system which may enable an entirely new matrix of exploration missions. Alfven waves are well known, transverse electromagnetic waves that propagate in magnetized plasmas at frequencies below the ion cyclotron frequency. They have been observed in both laboratory and astrophysical settings. On Earth, they are being investigated as a possible means for plasma heating, current drive, and momentum addition in magnetic confinement fusion systems. In addition, Alfven waves have been proposed as a mechanism for acceleration of the solar wind away from the sun.

THE POTENTIAL FOR AMBIENT PLASMA WAVE PROPULSION↗

Lower Limits on Aperture Size for an ExoEarth Detecting Coronagraphic Mission

The yield of Earth-like planets will likely be a primary science metric for future space-based missions that will drive telescope aperture size. Maximizing the exoEarth candidate yield is therefore critical to minimizing the required aperture. Here we describe a method for exoEarth candidate yield maximization that simultaneously optimizes, for the first time, the targets chosen for observation, the number of visits to each target, the delay time between visits, and the exposure time of every observation. This code calculates both the detection time and multiwavelength spectral characterization time required for planets. We also refine the astrophysical assumptions used as inputs to these calculations, relying on published estimates of planetary occurrence rates as well as theoretical and observational constraints on terrestrial planet sizes and classical habitable zones. Given these astrophysical assumptions, optimistic telescope and instrument assumptions, and our new completeness code that produces the highest yields to date, we suggest lower limits on the aperture size required to detect and characterize a statistically motivated sample of exoEarths.

Earth-like planets↗

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

We present several different methods for generating realistic predictive covariance, including Monte-Carlo simulations and more direct linear methods which require the addition of process noise. The Monte-Carlo simulation starts with an epoch uncertainty sample basis and propagates each trial to a time of interest in the future. The variance-covariance of the state elements as well as other higher order sample statistics can be readily computed from the propagated sample. While this method preserves the nonlinear effects on the propagated uncertainty, it is computationally intensive as a statistically significant sample size must be considered in the propagation process. Moreover, if the epoch covariance is optimistic, this can result in an underestimation of the prediction error. Another method is to propagate a state sensitivity matrix simultaneously with the satellite state, which allows the epoch covariances to be propagated forward in a linear fashion. This method does not preserve the non-linearity of the satellite state uncertainty but is much less computationally intensive. The propagated state covariance is the scaled to represent the realistic level of GPM state uncertainty via a "e-tuning process." The tuning process generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Difference tuning strategies are considered and compared via Goodness-of-Fit method testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance.

prediction error↗

Characterizing K2 Candidate Planetary Systems Orbiting Low-Mass Stars. II. Planetary Systems Observed During Campaigns 1-7

We recently used near-infrared spectroscopy to improve the characterization of 76 low-mass stars around which K2 had detected 79 candidate transiting planets. 29 of these worlds were new discoveries that had not previously been published. We calculate the false positive probabilities that the transit-like signals are actually caused by non-planetary astrophysical phenomena and reject five new transit-like events and three previously reported events as false positives. We also statistically validate 17 planets (7 of which were previously unpublished), confirm the earlier validation of 22 planets, and announce 17 newly discovered planet candidates. Revising the properties of the associated planet candidates based on the updated host star characteristics and refitting the transit photometry, we find that our sample contains 21 planets or planet candidates with radii smaller than 1.25 solar radii, 18 super-Earths (1.25-2 solar radii), 21 small Neptunes (2-4 solar radii), three large Neptunes (4-6 solar radii), and eight giant planets (greater than 6 solar radii). Most of these planets are highly irradiated, but EPIC 206209135.04 (K2-72e, 1.29 from plus 0.19 to minus 0.18 solar radii), EPIC 211988320.01 (perihelion radius equals 2.86 from plus 0.16 to minus 0.15 solar radii), and EPIC 212690867.01 (2.20 from plus 0.19 to minus 0.18 solar radii) orbit within optimistic habitable zone boundaries set by the "recent Venus" inner limit and the "early Mars" outer limit. In total, our planet sample includes eight moderately irradiated 1.5-3 solar radii planet candidates (planetary flux greater than or approximately 20 times Earth's flux) orbiting brighter stars (Ks less than 11) that are well-suited for atmospheric investigations with the Hubble, Spitzer, and/or James Webb Space Telescopes. Five validated planets orbit relatively bright stars (Kp less than 12.5) and are expected to yield radial velocity semi-amplitudes of at least 2 meters per second. Accordingly, they are possible targets for radial velocity mass measurement with current facilities or the upcoming generation of red optical and near-infrared high-precision RV (Radial Velocity) spectrographs.

Dressing, Courtney D.↗

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗

The Impact of Stellar Variability on the Detection of Transiting Earth-like Planets

Stellar variability represents a key limitation on the detectability of weak transit signatures of small, Earth-size planets with space-based missions such as NASA's Kepler Mission or ESA's PLATO Mission. The expectations for the performance of the Kepler Mission in the face of solar-like variability were predicated on observations of the Sun with the Variability of Solar Irradiance and Gravity Oscillations (VIRGO) instrument aboard NASA and ESA's joint Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission, which was launched in December 1995. Analyses of SOHO data indicated that solar-like variability would contribute approx.10 ppm to Kepler's noise budget at 6.5 ours, a typical grazing transit timescale. This proved to be optimistic as the typical 12th mag G2V star in the Kepler field of view exhibited 20 ppm of stellar variability-related noise at 6.5 hours, making the detection of true Earth-Sun analogs more difficult. While the consequent increase in the total noise at 6.5 hours from 20 ppm to 30 ppm could have been overcome by extending the mission to a total duration of 7 to 8 years. Unfortunately, a second reaction wheel failed in May 2013, ending the Kepler primary mission. Nevertheless, Kepler proved to be a veritable cornucopia of science results, both for exoplanets and for astrophysics. The phenomenal photometric precision and continuous observations required in order to identify small, rocky transiting planets enables the study of a large range of phenomena contributing to stellar variability for many thousands of solar-like stars in Kepler's field of view in exquisite detail. These effects range from less than 1 ppm acoustic oscillations on timescales from a few minutes and longward, to flares on timescales of hours, to spot-induced modulation on timescales of days to weeks to activity cycles on timescales of months to years. Kepler discovered over 2600 validated and confirmed exoplanets, and measured the pressure-mode oscillations of over 15000 stars over the course of its mission and the reconstituted K2 mission. We present the adaptive, wavelet-based matched filter used for both the Kepler and the TESS missions, and discuss the connections between this detection algorithm and fundamental detection theory, which allows the detector to function as a noise characterization engine. This provides a dynamical measurement of the photometric noise at transit timescales and thus, a key performance metric for missions like PLATO and Kepler. We give an overview of the stellar variability we see across the full range of spectral types observed by Kepler, from the cool, small red M stars to the hot, large late A stars, both in terms of amplitude as well as timescale.

transit surveys↗

High Reliability Requires More than Providing Spares

It is sometimes optimistically hoped that a space life support system can be kept working throughout a long duration mission by repairing failed components, as long as sufficient spares are flown. It is usually assumed that the components have constant known failure rates. Then the needed numbers of spares can be computed to have any particular probability that all failed components can be replaced by available spares. This approach can provide high reliability if its favorable assumptions, including constant known failure rates, are satisfied. Other favorable assumptions are that the failures are statistically independent, repair will be successful without causing further failures, and all failures are due to internal component failures. These assumptions are not usually justified. The failure rates may be estimates that are inadequately verified because of insufficient testing. Failure rates may change due to materials substitutions, manufacturing changes, redesigns to fix failures, and new failures caused by redesigns. Failures that are not statistically independent may result from one common cause, such as a design or manufacturing error or a cascade of cause and effect, possibly caused by an external event such as a power outage. Repair may be unsuccessful or cause damage. Many failures occur at component interfaces or at the overall systems level, not within isolated components. Other failures causes are completely external to the system, due to assembly, maintenance, and operational errors or to unexpected environmental challenges. Replacement with sufficient spares can compensate for expected internal component failures but may not be able to cope with unpredictable design and manufacturing flaws, human errors, and environmental impacts. Reliability estimates based on providing sufficient spares to compensate for expected failures may be far too high. They are essentially upper bounds on reliability that might be approached if many frequent but often unconsidered failure causes can be eliminated.

spares↗

The Impact of Stellar Variability on the Detection of Transiting Earth-Like Planets

Stellar variability represents a key limitation on the detectability of weak transit signatures of small, Earth-size planets with space-based missions such as NASA's Kepler Mission or ESA's PLATO Mission. The expectations for the performance of the Kepler Mission in the face of solar-like variability were predicated on observations of the Sun with the Variability of Solar Irradiance and Gravity Oscillations (VIRGO) instrument aboard NASA and ESA's joint Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission, which was launched in December 1995. Analyses of SOHO data indicated that solar-like variability would contribute ~10 ppm to Kepler's noise budget at 6.5 ours, a typical grazing transit timescale. This proved to be optimistic as the typical 12th mag G2V star in the Kepler field of view exhibited 20 ppm of stellar variability-related noise at 6.5 hours, making the detection of true Earth-Sun analogs more difficult. While the consequent increase in the total noise at 6.5 hours from 20 ppm to 30 ppm could have been overcome by extending the mission to a total duration of 7 to 8 years. Unfortunately, a second reaction wheel failed in May 2013, ending the Kepler primary mission. Nevertheless, Kepler proved to be a veritable cornucopia of science results, both for exoplanets and for astrophysics. The phenomenal photometric precision and continuous observations required in order to identify small, rocky transiting planets enables the study of a large range of phenomena contributing to stellar variability for many thousands of solar-like stars in Kepler's field of view in exquisite detail. These effects range from <1 ppm acoustic oscillations on timescales from a few minutes and longward, to flares on timescales of hours, to spot-induced modulation on timescales of days to weeks to activity cycles on timescales of months to years. Kepler discovered over 2600 validated and confirmed exoplanets, and measured the pressure-mode oscillations of over 15000 stars over the course of its mission and the reconstituted K2 mission. We present the adaptive, wavelet-based matched filter used for both the Kepler and the TESS missions, and discuss the connections between this detection algorithm and fundamental detection theory, which allows the detector to function as a noise characterization engine. This provides a dynamical measurement of the photometric noise at transit timescales and thus, a key performance metric for missions like PLATO and Kepler. We give an overview of the stellar variability we see across the full range of spectral types observed by Kepler, from the cool, small red M stars to the hot, large late A stars, both in terms of amplitude as well as timescale.

exoplanets↗

Fusion-Enabled Pluto Orbiter and Lander

Direct Fusion Drive (DFD) is a unique fusion engine concept based on the Princeton Field-Reversed Configuration (PFRC) fusion reactor conceived by Dr. Sam Cohen of the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. DFD would enable the Pluto orbiter and lander context mission and more broadly enable true "rapid transit" to outer-planet and near interstellar space. The truly game-changing levels of thrust and power in a modestly sized package could integrate with our current launch infrastructure while radically expanding the science capability of these missions. Our Phase I was our first funded work on the DFD, with previous work at PSS occurring only under internal R&D. We established the feasibility of our Pluto mission trajectories using straight-line and planar models, including a departure spiral from Earth and insertion at Pluto. We developed our first thrust and specific impulse model using the results of the UEDGE multi-fluid code. Our specific power model was improved. During this Phase II effort, we continued our efforts to increase the fidelity of the designs for the RF, magnet, and shielding subsystems. Dedicated thrust augmentation experiments were run on the PFRC experiment, using a supersonic gas puffing valve. For the first time, we analyzed the design of a closed-loop operation mode and estimated the hardware that would be required for a dual-mode engine. In an exciting new development, we have invented a new thermophotovoltaic thermal conversion method that has the potential to have efficiencies of a Brayton or Stirling system. Our report presents details of these analyses. Our roadmap to bringing DFD to flight predicts that with sufficient support, a first flight unit could be built by 2040. We anticipate that three machine generations are required before this point: a ~1 T PFRC-3 machine hitting new plasma temperature and density levels, a ~5 T PFRC-4 machine with first demonstration of D-3He fusion, and a flight. (The current experiment, PFRC-2, is limited to about 0.1 T). In order to achieve a flight in 2035-2040, the TRL of the supporting systems must be increased in parallel, including low mass radiators, cryogenic propellant storage, and large (>100 kW) thermal conversion systems. Fortunately, many of these systems are dual-use and are required for other technologies including fission systems, so DFD would contribute to and benefit from those programs. This NIAC support and the results of our work have led to multiple follow-on contracts. We won two NASA STTRs focused on DFD subsystems, one on the RF system and one on the superconducting magnets, and our magnet STTR is now midway through a Phase II. We will be receiving a superconducting test magnet for experiments at PPPL this summer. In addition, we won an ARPA-E OPEN grant; this is the first time that OPEN has included fusion technologies, and we are part of a cohort of three alternative fusion companies now supported directly by DOE. We are very optimistic that if we are able to meet our experimental milestones in the next 12-18 months, we will be competitive for additional DOE grants to build PFRC-3.

Propulsion↗

Space Program Advocacy Can Distort Project Management and Damage Systems Engineering

Over-optimistic project advocacy often causes exaggerated performance claims and underestimated costs and schedules. This can distort project management and damage systems engineering. NASA projects such as the space shuttle and Hubble are extreme examples. NASA's spectacular success in the Apollo moon landings seems to have produced overconfidence and carelessness, but also to have gained tolerance for unrealistic claims and forgiveness when they were proven wrong. Apollo risk analysis predicted many astronaut fatalities. This was believed but was potentially damaging to the Apollo program, so risk analysis was discontinued. The moon landings beat bad odds because Apollo obsessively reduced risk. Its success seemed to confirm that risk analysis was unreasonably pessimistic and that risk could be overcome by good engineering. This understanding caused risk to be increased during space shuttle engineering and led to an unnecessarily dangerous approach. The shuttle design placed a fragile spacecraft next to the fuel tanks and failed to provide crew escape or launch abort. These design decisions directly caused the Challenger and Columbia tragedies. After Challenger, risk analysis was re-established. The current rocket and capsule design does consider risk and the result strongly resembles Apollo. Apollo advocacy led NASA to abandon risk analysis and this was ultimate cause of the Shuttle tragedies. Excessive advocacy that distorts risk, cost, and schedule could be prevented in an ideal organization that used systems engineering to make rational and fair decisions. However, most real organizations accommodate human and group needs using informal methods often described as "the system." Humans have biases, use innate decision making heuristics, instinctively rely on "gut feel," and establish deviant groups through groupthink. Expecting organizations to become totally rational is impractical, but specific problems such as neglecting risk and underestimating cost and schedule can be directly challenged with some hope of success.

Jones, Harry W.↗

Possible Climate Histories of Venus Type Worlds

There are two well-known scenarios for Venus’ climate evolution. In one Venus had a long-lived magma ocean phase in its first 100Myr with a steam and CO2 dominated atmosphere. The faint young sun with its high XUV flux would cause photodissociation of the steam atmosphere and hydrodynamic escape would cause most of the hydrogen to escape & left-over oxygen would be absorbed by the magma ocean. Hence Venus would have started out hot and dry and the high D/H ratio measured by Pioneer Venus would be from this period of water loss. The other scenario is that Venus’ magma ocean lifetime would have been roughly the same length of time as Earth’s (~1Myr) and water would have condensed on its surface in its early history and had a short period of habitability before increasing solar insolation through time drove it into a runaway greenhouse. However, results from 2016 showed that if Venus remains in the slowly rotating climate dynamics regime (as seen in exoplanet related climate studies) its cloud albedo feedback would have kept it temperate for possibly billions of years. The only way to confirm which one of these scenarios occurred for Venus is to visit it and make the necessary measurements of noble and volatile gases. But exoplanet observations of young exo-Venus type worlds around young F,G,K dwarf stars may constrain which scenario is more probable for a population of such planets. We present a vision of Venus’ climate history that places it and its exoVenus cousins in an ‘Optimistic Venus Zone’ for ~3 billion years within the conventionally named ‘Venus Zone’ and hence encourage the exoplanet communit as possible habitable environments.

Way, M. J.↗

Lessons from Earth Bioaerosol Sampling for Venus Habitability & Biosignature Science

Venus’s clouds are often discussed as a potential habitat. Several high-priority science goals – cloud aerosol composition, internal radiative flux, and aerosol residence time and circulation models – will improve our understanding of Venus in an astrobiology context. Lessons from Earth’s aerobiosphere can inform these requirements and interpretation of results. A stable Venus aerobiosphere would need microorganisms to reproduce faster than they settle out due to gravity. This is a joint constraint of the potential nutrients and energy influx, bioenergetic costs such as desiccation and radiation damage, and aerosol dynamics. Though life cycles involving S- and Fe-based redox metabolism have been proposed, at an optimistic estimate of 75% H2SO4, Venus aerosol water activity (aw) is still ~0.02, far below the observed microbial growth limit of ~0.6. Long-term desiccation with brief spurts of repair, growth and reproduction in response to transient water influx (perhaps volcanism) is the most likely model for Earth-like life on Venus – a ‘desert bloom’ scenario. In Earth’s troposphere, clouds can carry 103 – 105 cells/mL, some metabolically active. A better analogue may be Earth’s stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer: supercooled sulfuric acid aerosols (acid weight fraction 0.6 – 0.85, 0.1 – 1 µm diameter, 0.1 – 1 cm-3) with little water activity, long residence times, high UV radiation, and only sporadic influx from surface particle sources. Viable cells isolated from this region are rare (~102 cells/m3), though ‘hot spots’ at tropospheric mixing occur. Cells are primarily in inactive forms such as spores, and it is unclear if any are associated with sulfate aerosols or simply co-located. Given the heterogeneities in Venus clouds and the model of a sparse, largely dormant ecosystem, a single transect on descent would most likely pass through a low-water, inactive region, missing potential signs of habitability or biosignatures. Even a passive aerial platform (balloon) may end up following a single air mass over its lifetime. A better strategy for Venus would target an aerial region with some upwelling from surface sources, and take multiple transects separated in time and space. Earth’s stratospheric bioaerosol population could provide a starting point for estimating the required lower volume and detection limits.

Earth↗

Lessons from Earth Aerobiology for Venus Astrobiology

Venus’s clouds have often suggested as a possible habitat. The constraints governing putative airborne life in such a habitat in turn inform priorities and strategies for remote and in situ exploration, methods by which resulting biosignatures might be detected, exoplanet habitability assessment, and planetary protection concerns. Lessons drawn from studying Earth’s aerobiosphere can help improve this understanding. There are altitude ranges within Venus’s clouds in which temperature, pressure, particle size, and radiation appear to be within the limits of microbial life on Earth, and life cycles involving S- and Fe-based redox metabolism have been proposed. However, given the lack of a habitable surface reservoir, a long-term stable Venus aerobiosphere would require that the reproduction rate of the airborne microbes be faster than the settling rate of airborne microbes due to gravity, or eventually the population would be depleted; put another way, the mean generation time would need to exceed the mean residence time. This creates a joint constraint of aerosol dynamics, potential nutrient availability and energy influx, and bioenergetic costs such as desiccation and radiation damage. Even at an optimistic estimate of 75% H2SO4, Venus aerosol water activity (aw) is still ~0.02, far below the observed microbial growth limit of ~0.6. Long-term desiccation with brief spurts of repair and growth in response to transient water influx, such as from volcanism, is the most likely model for Earth-like life on Venus – a ‘desert bloom’ scenario. Several high-priority science goals – cloud aerosol composition, internal radiative flux, and aerosol residence time and circulation models – thus will also improve our understanding of Venus in an astrobiology context. In Earth’s troposphere, warm water clouds can carry 103 – 105 cells/mL, some metabolically active. However, Earth’s stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer may be a better analogue: supercooled sulfuric acidaerosols (acid weight fraction 0.6 – 0.85, 0.1 – 1 μm diameter, 0.1 – 1 cm-3) with little water activity, long residence times, high UV radiation, and only sporadic influx from surface particle sources. Though ‘hot spots’ can occur associated with tropospheric mixing, viable cells in stratospheric samples are rare (~102 cells/m3), and primarily inactive forms such as spores. It is not yet clear whether such bioaerosols are associated with sulfate aerosols or simply co-located, and reproduction in situ has not yet been observed. In this model of a sparse, largely dormant Venus ecosystem, a single transect on descent is likely to pass through a low-water, inactive region, missing potential signs of habitability or biosignatures. A targeted strategy would sample through an aerial region with some upwelling from surface sources, andtake multiple transects separated in time and space. This is compatible with other in situ science goals seeking to understand the dynamics and heterogeneities of Venus’s clouds.

Lower atmosphere↗

Possible climate histories of Venus type worlds

There are two well-known scenarios for Venus’ climate evolution. In one Venus had a long-lived magma ocean phase in its first 100Myr with a steam and CO2dominated atmosphere[1]. The faint young sun with its high XUV flux would cause photo-dissociation of the steam atmosphere and hydrodynamic escape would cause most of the hydrogen to escape and the left over oxygen would be absorbed by the magma ocean. Hence Venus would have started out hot and dry and the high D/H ratio measured by Pioneer Venus [2] would be from this period of water loss. The other scenario is that Venus’ magma ocean lifetime would have been roughly the same length of time as Earth’s (~1Myr) and water would have condensed on its surface in its early history. As long as Venus remained in the slowly rotating climate dynamics regime [3,4] its cloud albedo feedback would have kept it temperate for possibly billions of years. The only way to confirm which one of these scenarios occurred for Venus is to visit it and make the necessary measurements of noble and volatile gases [5].But exoplanet observations of young exo-Venus type worlds around young F,G,K dwarf stars may constrain whether both scenarios are equally probable for a population of such planets. We present a vision of Venus’ climate history that places it and its exo-Venus cousins in an ‘Optimistic Venus Zone’ within the conventionally named ‘Venus Zone’ [6] and hence encourage the exoplanet community to seek out these worlds as possible habitable environments.

Venus’ climate evolution↗

The problem of partial gravity on the Moon and Mars

Astronauts who spend many weeks or months in space in zero g suffer serious health problems including muscle atrophy, cardiovascular deconditioning, bone calcium loss, impaired vision, and immune system change. The debilitating effects of weightlessness were first demonstrated on the early Skylab, Salyut, and Mir missions, but it was too optimistically hoped that in-flight exercise and resistance training could prevent these problems. Similar problems are anticipated in the partial gravity of the Moon and Mars. Partial gravity exposure below 0.4 g seems too low to maintain musculoskeletal and cardiopulmonary conditioning in the long term. Some studies show a strong correlation between heart rate, oxygen consumption, net metabolic rate and simulated gravity from 0 to 1 g. Exposure to Moon and Mars gravities probably will cause less severe physiological deconditioning than experienced in 0 g, but the benefit of partial gravity seems likely to be roughly proportional to the 1/6 or 1/3 gravity experienced. As in 0 g, exercise countermeasures seem necessary but insufficient to preserve all physiological systems to a 1 g standard.

Harry W Jones↗

Poisson vs. Gaussian statistics for sparse X-ray data: Application to the soft X-ray spectrometer

Reliable results when fitting X-ray data require proper consideration of the statistics involved. We probe the impact of Gaussian versus Poisson statistics at low count levels using both the standard χ^(2) method and maximum likelihood based on Poisson (C) statistics. The difference is studied and quantified through simulated spectra with known properties. We then test the results through analysis of Mn Kα calibration data taken with the flight spare microcalorimeter for the Hitomi soft X-ray spectrometer. Through comparison with simulations, our results show that the χ^(2) method tends to give overly optimistic estimates of the detector energy resolution, in particular when there are few counts. Given an energy resolution of ∼5 eV and a line with about 100 photons, the line width becomes ∼10% lower in the χ^(2) method than in Poisson statistics. This is a consequence of the uncertainties being dominated by counting statistics, and therefore highlights the need to choose the appropriate fit statistic.

Shinya Yamada↗

Radio Follow-up of a Candidate γ-Ray Transient in the Sky Localization Area of GW170608

After the identification of a candidate γ-ray transient in the error region of the binary black hole (BBH) merger GW150914 by the Fermi satellite, the question of whether BBH mergers can be associated with electromagnetic counterparts remains highly debated. Here, we present radio follow-up observations of GW170608, a BBH merger that occurred during the second observing run (O2) of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO). Our radio follow-up focused on a specific field contained in the GW170608 sky localization area, where a candidate high-energy transient was detected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). We make use of data collected at 1.4 GHz with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA), as well as with the VLA Lowband Ionosphere and Transient Experiment (VLITE). Our analysis is sensitive to potential radio afterglows with luminosity densities L(1.4GHz) ≳ 6 x 10^(28) erg/sHz. In the most optimistic theoretical models, ≈20% of BBH events occurring in massive hosts could be associated with outflows as radio luminous as this. Although we find no evidence for the presence of a radio counterpart associated with the LAT candidate in the GW170608 error region, our analysis demonstrates the feasibility of future radio follow-up observations of well-localized BBHs. Comparing our radio upper limits with theoretical expectations for the radio afterglows potentially associated with jets launched in BBH mergers, we find that for jets of energy ≈10^(49) erg seen on-axis, only jet angles θ(jet)≳40° are compatible with the observations.

Kyle Artkop↗