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DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Contrasting Scale Dependence of Entrainment-Mixing Mechanisms in Stratocumulus Clouds

The apparent turbulent entrainment-mixing mechanism between clouds and surrounding air is scale-dependent; however, such scale dependence has been rarely studied, hindering development of scale-aware entrainment-mixing parameterizations. Here we extend our previous study on cumulus clouds to investigate scale dependence of entrainment-mixing processes in stratocumulus clouds during ACE-ENA and RACORO. In contrast to previous studies, two opposite scale dependencies are found: entrainment-mixing can become more homogeneous or more inhomogeneous with increasing averaging scales, which is quantified by the difference between homogeneous mixing degree at the 100 m and 10 m resolutions. A new heuristic model and two new quantities are introduced. The observations and model show that microphysical properties near and far away from droplet-free air and relative humidity of entrained air determine both the sign and strength of scale dependence, while droplet-free air fraction only affects the strength. The results shed new light on developing scale-aware parameterizations of entrainment-mixing mechanisms.

Gao, Sinan↗

DOE OSTI2025

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of PWR spent fuel observables to operational and model parameters

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) observables - decay heat, neutron and γ-ray emission rate - to operational and model parameters have been performed. A 2D model representing a typical PWR 17x17 UO{sub 2} fuel assembly has been taken as reference. The Serpent code and ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluated nuclear data library have been used for the analyses. Relative uncertainty of decay heat, neutron and γ-ray emission rates due to Monte Carlo counting statistics, as well as the number of fuel pin radial regions required for an accurate characterization of SNF neutron emission, have been estimated. A parametric study has been carried out to investigate the impact of the homogenization to an average value of the fuel and moderator temperature, boron concentration power and burnup on the prediction of the selected observables. In addition, linear sensitivity coefficients have been calculated. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Parameterizing Perennial Bioenergy Crops in Version 5 of the Community Land Model Based on Site‐Level Observations in the Central Midwestern United States

Abstract With projected expansion of biofuel production at a global scale, there is a pressing need to develop adequate representation of bioenergy crops in land surface models to help effectively quantify the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of its associated land use changes. This study implements two new perennial bioenergy crops, Miscanthus and switchgrass, into the Community Land Model Version 5 based on site‐level observations from the midwestern United States by modifying parameters associated with photosynthesis, phenology, allocation, decomposition, and carbon cost of nitrogen uptake and integrating concomitantly land management practices. Sensitivity analyses indicate that carbon and energy fluxes of the perennial crops are most sensitive to photosynthesis and phenology parameters. Validation of simulated fluxes against site‐level measurements demonstrates that the model is capable of capturing the overall patterns of energy and carbon fluxes, as well as physiological transitions from leaf emergence to senescence. Compared to annual crops, perennial crops feature longer growing season, greater leaf areas, and higher productivity, leading to increased transpiration, lower annual runoff, and larger carbon uptake. The model simulations suggest that with higher CO 2 assimilation rates and lower demands for nutrients and water, high‐yielding perennial crops are promising alternatives of bioenergy feedstocks compared to traditional annual crops not only for mitigating climate change but also for environmental conservation purposes by reducing fertilizer application and therefore alleviating surface‐ and ground‐water contaminations. Although the local‐scale simulations shed light on potential benefits of using perennial grasses as bioenergy feedstocks, quantifying consequences of their plantations at larger scales warrants additional investigation.

Cheng, Yanyan↗

DOE OSTI2026

Presupernova O–C Shell Mergers Could Produce More 44 Ti than the Explosion

The formation of 44 Ti in massive stars is thought to occur during explosive nucleosynthesis; however, recent studies have shown it can be produced during O–C shell mergers prior to core collapse. We investigate how mixing according to 3D macrophysics derived from hydrodynamic simulations impacts presupernova O–C shell merger nucleosynthesis and if it can dominate explosive supernova production of 44 Ti and other radioactive isotopes. We compare a range of observations and models of explosive 44 Ti yields to preexplosive multizone mixing–burning nucleosynthesis simulations of an O–C shell merger in a 15 M ⊙ Z = 0.02 stellar model with mixing conditions corresponding to different 3D hydrodynamic mixing scenarios. Radioactive species produced in the O shell have a multidex spread in preexplosive yield predictions across different 3D mixing scenarios of 1.54 and 2.14 dex on average, depending on mass cut. 44 Ti has the largest spread of 4.78 and 4.81 dex depending on mass cut. Further, we show that the preexplosive production of 44 Ti can be larger than the explosive production of models and can match observations. Our results also show that 3D mixing physics enhances 44 Ti in 1D models without modifying 56 Ni yields. We conclude that quantitative predictions of 44 Ti and other radioactive species more broadly require an understanding of the 3D hydrodynamic mixing conditions present during the O–C shell merger.

Issa, Joshua [University of Victoria, BC (Canada);↗

DOE OSTI2022

Importance of different parameterization changes for the updated dust cycle modeling in the Community Atmosphere Model (version 6.1)

Abstract. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6.1), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM; version 2.1), simulates the life cycle (emission, transport, and deposition) of mineral dust and its interactions with physio-chemical components to quantify the impacts of dust on climate and the Earth system. The accuracy of such quantifications relies on how well dust-related processes are represented in the model. Here we update the parameterizations for the dust module, including those on the dust emission scheme, the aerosol dry deposition scheme, the size distribution of transported dust, and the treatment of dust particle shape. Multiple simulations were undertaken to evaluate the model performance against diverse observations, and to understand how each update alters the modeled dust cycle and the simulated dust direct radiative effect. The model–observation comparisons suggest that substantially improved model representations of the dust cycle are achieved primarily through the new more physically-based dust emission scheme. In comparison, the other modifications induced small changes to the modeled dust cycle and model–observation comparisons, except the size distribution of dust in the coarse mode, which can be even more influential than that of replacing the dust emission scheme. We highlight which changes introduced here are important for which regions, shedding light on further dust model developments required for more accurately estimating interactions between dust and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advancing the Predictability of Water Cycle Phenomena via the Application of AI to Model Ensemble Simulations and Observations

AI has the power to identify new pathways to extended predictability of the water cycle via its application to model ensembles together with accompanying observations. We discuss both scientific and technological aspects of this challenge, and address the parts of the MODEX approach involving “Model simulations, evaluation, analysis, and benchmarking” and “Identification of key knowledge gaps”. The widespread incorporation of AI into model analysis will significantly advance Earth system predictability and our predictive capabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from galaxy clustering and weak lensing with HSC and SDSS using the minimal bias model

Here, we present cosmological parameter constraints from a blind joint analysis of three two-point correlation functions measured from the Year 3 Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC-Y3) imaging data, covering about 416 deg 2 , and the SDSS DR11 spectroscopic galaxies spanning the redshift range [0.15, 0.70]. We subdivide the SDSS galaxies into three luminosity-cut, and therefore nearly volume-limited samples separated in redshift, each of which acts as a large-scale structure tracer characterized by the measurement of the projected correlation function, w p ⁡(R). We also use the measurements of the galaxy-galaxy weak-lensing signal Δ⁢Σ⁡(R) for each of these SDSS samples which act as lenses for a secure sample of source galaxies selected from the HSC-Y3 shape catalog based on their photometric redshifts. We combine these measurements with the cosmic shear correlation functions, ξ ± ⁡($\vartheta$) measured for our HSC source sample. We model these observables with the minimal bias model of the galaxy clustering observables in the context of a flat Λ⁢CDM cosmology. We use conservative scale cuts, R >12 and 8⁢ℎ -1 Mpc for Δ⁢Σ and w p , respectively, where the minimal bias model is valid, in addition to conservative prior on the residual bias in the mean redshift of the HSC photometric source galaxies. We present various validation tests of our model as well as analysis methods. Our baseline analysis yields S 8 = $0.77⁢5^{+0.043}_{-0.038}$ (68% C.I.) for the Λ⁢CDM model, after marginalizing over uncertainties in other parameters. Our value of S 8 is consistent with that from the Planck 2018 data, but the credible interval of our result is still relatively large. We show that various internal consistency tests based on different splits of the data are passed. Our results are statistically consistent with those of a companion paper, which extends this analysis to smaller scales with an emulator-based halo model, using Δ⁢Σ⁡(R) and w p ⁡(R) down to R >3 and 2⁢ℎ -1 Mpc, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The future of Earth system prediction: Advances in model-data fusion

Predictions of the Earth system, such as weather forecasts and climate projections, require models informed by observations at many levels. Some methods for integrating models and observations are very systematic and comprehensive (e.g., data assimilation), and some are single purpose and customized (e.g., for model validation). We review current methods and best practices for integrating models and observations. We highlight how future developments can enable advanced heterogeneous observation networks and models to improve predictions of the Earth system (including atmosphere, land surface, oceans, cryosphere, and chemistry) across scales from weather to climate. As the community pushes to develop the next generation of models and data systems, there is a need to take a more holistic, integrated, and coordinated approach to models, observations, and their uncertainties to maximize the benefit for Earth system prediction and impacts on society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Clump survival and migration in VDI galaxies: an analytical model versus simulations and observations

ABSTRACT We address the nature of the giant clumps in high-z galaxies that undergo violent disc instability, distinguishing between long-lived and short-lived clumps. We study the evolution of long-lived clumps during migration through the disc via an analytical model tested by simulations and confront theory with CANDELS-HST observations. The clump ‘bathtub’ model, which considers gas and stellar gain and loss, involves four parameters: the accretion efficiency α, the star formation rate (SFR) efficiency ϵd, and the outflow mass-loading factors for gas and stars, η and ηs. The corresponding time-scales are comparable to the migration time, two-three orbital times. The accretion-rate dependence on clump mass, gas, and stars, allows an analytical solution involving exponential growing and decaying modes. For the fiducial parameter values there is a main evolution phase where the SFR and gas mass are constant and the stellar mass is rising linearly with time. This makes the inverse specific SFR an observable proxy for clump age. When η or ϵd are high, or α is low, the decaying mode induces a decline of SFR and gas mass till the migration ends. Later, the masses and SFR approach an hypothetical exponential growth with a constant specific SFR. The model matches simulations with different, moderate feedbacks, both in isolated and cosmological settings. The observed clumps agree with our predictions, indicating that the massive clumps are long-lived and migrating. A challenge is to model feedback that is non-disruptive in massive clumps but suppresses SFR to match the galactic stellar-to-halo mass ratio.

Dekel, Avishai↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Intrinsic 150‐Day Periodicity of the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract The variability of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical large‐scale circulation is dominated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whose timescale is extensively used as a key metric in evaluating state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Past observational and theoretical studies suggest that the SAM lacks any internally generated (intrinsic) periodicity. Here, we show, using observations and a climate model hierarchy, that the SAM has an intrinsic 150‐day periodicity. This periodicity is robustly detectable in the power spectra and principal oscillation patterns (aka dynamical mode decomposition) of the zonal‐mean circulation, and in hemispheric‐scale precipitation and ocean surface wind stress. The 150‐day period is consistent with the predictions of a new reduced‐order model for the SAM, which suggests that this periodicity is associated with a complex interaction of turbulent eddies and zonal wind anomalies, as the latter propagate from low to high latitudes. These findings present a rare example of periodic oscillations arising from the internal dynamics of the extratropical turbulent circulations. Based on these findings, we further propose a new metric for evaluating climate models, and show that some of the previously reported shortcomings and improvements in simulating SAM's variability connect to the models' ability in reproducing this periodicity. We argue that this periodicity should be considered in evaluating climate models and understanding the past, current, and projected Southern Hemisphere climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Standardized Data to Improve Understanding and Modeling of Soil Nitrogen at Continental Scale

Abstract Nitrogen (N) is a key limiting nutrient in terrestrial ecosystems, but there remain critical gaps in our ability to predict and model controls on soil N cycling. This may be in part due to lack of standardized sampling across broad spatial–temporal scales. Here, we introduce a continentally distributed, publicly available data set collected by the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) that can help fill these gaps. First, we detail the sampling design and methods used to collect and analyze soil inorganic N pool and net flux rate data from 47 terrestrial sites. We address methodological challenges in generating a standardized data set, even for a network using uniform protocols. Then, we evaluate sources of variation within the sampling design and compare measured net N mineralization to simulated fluxes from the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). We observed wide spatiotemporal variation in inorganic N pool sizes and net transformation rates. Site explained the most variation in NEON’s stratified sampling design, followed by plots within sites. Organic horizons had larger pools and net N transformation rates than mineral horizons on a sample weight basis. The majority of sites showed some degree of seasonality in N dynamics, but overall these temporal patterns were not matched by CESM2, leading to poor correspondence between observed and modeled data. Looking forward, these data can reveal new insights into controls on soil N cycling, especially in the context of other environmental data sets provided by NEON, and should be leveraged to improve predictive modeling of the soil N cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Access to stable, high pressure tokamak pedestals using local electron cyclotron current drive

Abstract Experiments on the DIII-D tokamak demonstrate that edge localized mode (ELM) stability can be manipulated using localized electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) in conjunction with resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs). The injection of counter-plasma-current edge ECCD reduces the RMP amplitude required to suppress ELMs and bifurcates the pedestal into a high-confinement regime with 7 kPA pedestal pressure. This is the first time such a high confinement regime has been accessed through the bifurcation from the ballooning stability branch predicted by existing models. These observations are consistent with modeled ECCD manipulation of magnetic islands induced by the RMPs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Search for Beyond the Standard Model physics with anomaly detection in multilepton final states in pp collisions at s=13TeV with the ATLAS detector

A model-agnostic search for Beyond the Standard Model physics is presented, targeting final states with at least four light leptons (electrons or muons). The search regions are separated by event topology and unsupervised machine learning is used to identify anomalous events in the full 140 fb-1$$^{-1}$$ of proton–proton collision data collected with the ATLAS detector during Run 2. No significant excess above the Standard Model background expectation is observed. Model-agnostic limits are presented in each topology, along with limits on several benchmark models including vector-like leptons, wino-like charginos and neutralinos, or smuons. Limits are set on the flavourful vector-like lepton model for the first time.

Aad, G↗

DOE OSTI2020

Laser Disdrometer Quantities (LDQUANTS) and Video Disdrometer Quantities (VDISQUANTS) Value-Added Products Report

Disdrometers are useful instruments that measure the distribution of raindrop sizes (drop size distribution: DSD) and the associated rainfall rates/accumulation as those raindrops fall to the ground. These DSDs are a quantity of interest to members of the modeler and observational communities. However, use of disdrometer data for model evaluation, radar monitoring, or other activities requires careful quality control and processing for key DSD properties of interest (e.g., the number concentration of drops) to ensure appropriate physical (scattering, fall speed) assumptions. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Laser Disdrometer Quantities and Video Disdrometer Quantities Value-Added Product (LDQUANTS/VDISQUANTS VAP) uses standard methods from Tokay et al. (e.g., 2013, 2014) to filter drops with unrealistic fall speeds. Further, it estimates several microphysical/geophysical quantities of parameterized DSDs (gamma or exponential assumption type fitting methods) as in previous disdrometer studies and ARM long-term efforts (e.g., Testud et al. 2001, Giangrande et al. 2014, Thompson et al. 2015). Disdrometers are also beneficial for cross-checks with other instrumentation, including rain gauges and radars. To support research interests and related radar monitoring activities, this product calculates radar equivalent quantities, including dual polarization radar quantities (e.g., Z, Differential Reflectivity ZDR, etc.), using T-Matrix scattering and additional wavelength, temperature, and drop shape assumptions (e.g., Thurai et al. 2007). All of these efforts allow disdrometer data sets to become more useful and easily handled by modeling and observational studies, or routine instrumentation checks.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Horne et al. (2026) supporting files - WRF-LES model outputs for a summer heatwave event on June 2025 in Baltimore, MD

Brief Description Shown is the supporting information for Horne et al. (2026). These files include all outputs from the WRF model simulations and the observational datasets used for comparison in the study. Scripts are provided so users can recreate the manuscript's figures using the provided observational and modeling data. For more information regarding the study, please contact the primary author of the associated manuscript, Jason Horne. Horne, J. P., Pan, Y., Davis, K. J., Waugh, D., Ahlswede, B. J., Prince, N. E. (2026). Simulating near-surface environments in urban neighborhoods using WRF-LES: A case study of classic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) during a heatwave event JAMES. (to be submitted)

atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2026

Horne et al. (2026) supporting files - WRF-LES model outputs for a summer heatwave event on June 2025 in Baltimore, MD

atmosphere↗