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At least 253 records · Page 14

Differentiable Preisach Modeling for Characterization and Optimization of Particle Accelerator Systems with Hysteresis

Future improvements in particle accelerator performance are predicated on increasingly accurate online modeling of accelerators. Hysteresis effects in magnetic, mechanical, and material components of accelerators are often neglected in online accelerator models used to inform control algorithms, even though reproducibility errors from systems exhibiting hysteresis are not negligible in high precision accelerators. Here, we combine the classical Preisach model of hysteresis with machine learning techniques to efficiently create nonparametric, high-fidelity models of arbitrary systems exhibiting hysteresis. We experimentally demonstrate how these methods can be used in situ, where a hysteresis model of an accelerator magnet is combined with a Bayesian statistical model of the beam response, allowing characterization of magnetic hysteresis solely from beam-based measurements. Finally, we explore how using these joint hysteresis-Bayesian statistical models allows us to overcome optimization performance limitations that arise when hysteresis effects are ignored.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Broadband Processing in a Noisy Shallow Ocean Environment: A Particle Filtering Approach

Here we report that when a broadband source propagates sound in a shallow ocean the received data can become quite complicated due to temperature-related sound-speed variations and therefore a highly dispersive environment. Noise and uncertainties disrupt this already chaotic environment even further because disturbances propagate through the same inherent acoustic channel. The broadband (signal) estimation/detection problem can be decomposed into a set of narrowband solutions that are processed separately and then combined to achieve more enhancement of signal levels than that available from a single frequency, thereby allowing more information to be extracted leading to a more reliable source detection. A Bayesian solution to the broadband modal function tracking, pressure-field enhancement, and source detection problem is developed that leads to nonparametric estimates of desired posterior distributions enabling the estimation of useful statistics and an improved processor/detector. In conclusion, to investigate the processor capabilities, we synthesize an ensemble of noisy, broadband, shallow-ocean measurements to evaluate its overall performance using an information theoretical metric for the preprocessor and the receiver operating characteristic curve for the detector.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Non-Intrusive Appliance Identification with Appliance-Specific Networks

The problem of noninstrusive load monitoring (NILM) is usually formulated as a single-channel blind source separation task, whose successful solution enable fast and convenient load identification and energy disaggregation. When applied at test time, NILM algorithms aim to identify the operating characteristics of individual appliances from an aggregate power measurement of the entire house. Recent advances in deep learning gave rise to many methods that mostly focus on learning a direct mapping from aggregate measurement to individual appliance power. However, these methods are not only computationally expensive, but they often suffer from overfitting and do not generalize very well. In this article, we propose a novel NILM method that leverages advances in statistical learning that have not been properly applied in this domain before. The proposed method consists of three stages: first, a Bayesian nonparametric learning-based approach for appliance state extraction; second, synthetic minority oversampling technique for data augmentation and mitigating the heavy imbalance in switching events; and third, appliance-specific lightweight long short-term memory networks for status classification for each appliance. Here, we adopt a “differential” input (the difference before and after the switching event) to reduce the complexity of network training and make the proposed method robust to multiappliance switching events. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving superior performance when compared to recent methods. An ablation study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of each module of our method. Finally, we investigate the quality of generated synthetic samples.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probabilistic Power Flow Based on a Gaussian Process Emulator

In this letter, a novel Gaussian process emulator is proposed, for the first time, to conduct the probabilistic power-flow calculation. Based on Bayesian inference, a Gaussian process emulator is trained and served as a nonparametric, reduced-order model of the nonlinear power-flow model. This emulator has allowed us to evaluate the time-consuming power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. The simulations reveal the excellent performance of this method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Physics-Informed Sparse Gaussian Process for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Large-Scale Power System with Dynamic PVs and Loads

This work proposes a physics-informed sparse Gaussian process (SGP) for probabilistic stability assessment of large-scale power systems in the presence of uncertain dynamic PVs and loads. The differential and algebraic equations considering uncertainties from dynamic PVs and loads are reformulated to a nonlinear mapping relationship that allows the application of SGP. Thanks to the nonparametric characteristic of Gaussian process, the proposed framework does not require distributions of uncertain inputs and this distinguishes it from existing approaches. As the original Gaussian process is not scalable to large-scale systems with high dimensional uncertain inputs, this paper develops the SGP with a stochastic variational inference technique. It leads to approximately two orders of complex reduction. A data pre-processing step is also introduced to tackle the coexistence of stable and unstable cases by sample clustering and constructing separate SGPs. The probabilistic transient stability index is analyzed to assess system stability under different uncertain dynamics loads and PVs. Comparisons are performed with the sampling-based, the polynomial chaos expansion-based, and traditional Gaussian process-based methods on the modified IEEE 118-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems under various scenarios, including different levels of uncertainties and the existence of nonlinear correlations among dynamic PVs. The impacts of data quality and quantity issues are also investigated. It is shown that the proposed SGP achieves significantly improved computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy with a limited number of data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quickest Detection for Changes in Maximal kNN Coherence of Random Matrices

This paper addresses the problem of quickest detection of a change in the maximal coherence between columns of a n p random matrix based on a sequence of matrix observations having a single unknown change point. The random matrix is assumed to have identically distributed rows and the maximal coherence is defined as the largest of the ( 2 p) correlation coefficients associated with any row. Likewise the κ nearest neighbor (kNN) coherence is defined as the κ-th largest of these correlation coefficients. The forms of the preand postchange distributions of the observed matrices are assumed to belong to the family of elliptically contoured densities with sparse dispersion matrices but are otherwise unknown. A nonparametric stopping rule is proposed that is based on the maximal kNN sample coherence between columns of each observed random matrix. This is a summary statistic that is related to a test of existence of a hub vertex in a sample correlation graph having degree at least κ. Performance bounds on the delay and false alarm performance of the proposed stopping rule are obtained in the purely high-dimensional regime where p → ∞ and n is fixed. When the prechange dispersion matrix is diagonal it is shown that, among all functions of the proposed summary statistic, the proposed stopping rule is asymptotically optimal under a minimax quickest change detection model as the stopping threshold approaches infinity. Furthermore, the theory developed also applies to sequential hypothesis testing and fixed sample size tests.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Uncertainty in Stochastic Economic Dispatch considering Wind Power Penetration

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To estimate the uncertainty in this stochastic economic dispatch problem for forecasting purposes, the conventional Monte-Carlo method is prohibitively time-consuming for practical applications. To overcome this problem, here we propose a novel Gaussian-process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Facing high-dimensional real-world data representing the correlated uncertainties from wind generation, a manifold-learning-based Isomap algorithm is proposed to efficiently represent the low-dimensional hidden probabilistic structure of the data. In this low-dimensional latent space, with Latin hypercube sampling as the computer experimental design, a Gaussian-process emulator is used, for the first time, to serve as a nonparametric, surrogate model for the original complicated stochastic economic dispatch model. This reduced-order representative allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus test system reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An Entropy-Based Test and Development Framework for Uncertainty Modeling in Level-Set Visualizations

We present a simple comparative framework for testing and developing uncertainty modeling in uncertain marching cubes implementations. The selection of a model to represent the probability distribution of uncertain values directly influences the memory use, run time, and accuracy of an uncertainty visualization algorithm. We use an entropy calculation directly on ensemble data to establish an expected result and then compare the entropy from various probability models, including uniform, Gaussian, histogram, and quantile models. Our results verify that models matching the distribution of the ensemble indeed match the entropy. We further show that fewer bins in nonparametric histogram models are more effective whereas large numbers of bins in quantile models approach data accuracy.

Sisneros, Robert↗

Bootstrapping outperforms community‐weighted approaches for estimating the shapes of phenotypic distributions

Abstract Estimating phenotypic distributions of populations and communities is central to many questions in ecology and evolution. These distributions can be characterized by their moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) or diversity metrics (e.g. functional richness). Typically, such moments and metrics are calculated using community‐weighted approaches (e.g. abundance‐weighted mean). We propose an alternative bootstrapping approach that allows flexibility in trait sampling and explicit incorporation of intraspecific variation, and show that this approach significantly improves estimation while allowing us to quantify uncertainty. We assess the performance of different approaches for estimating the moments of trait distributions across various sampling scenarios, taxa and datasets by comparing estimates derived from simulated samples with the true values calculated from full datasets. Simulations differ in sampling intensity (individuals per species), sampling biases (abundance, size), trait data source (local vs. global) and estimation method (two types of community‐weighting, two types of bootstrapping). We introduce the traitstrap R package, which contains a modular and extensible set of bootstrapping and weighted‐averaging functions that use community composition and trait data to estimate the moments of community trait distributions with their uncertainty. Importantly, the first function in the workflow, trait_fill , allows the user to specify hierarchical structures (e.g. plot within site, experiment vs. control, species within genus) to assign trait values to each taxon in each community sample. Across all taxa, simulations and metrics, bootstrapping approaches were more accurate and less biased than community‐weighted approaches. With bootstrapping, a sample size of 9 or more measurements per species per trait generally included the true mean within the 95% CI. It reduced average percent errors by 26%–74% relative to community‐weighting. Random sampling across all species outperformed both size‐ and abundance‐biased sampling. Our results suggest randomly sampling ~9 individuals per sampling unit and species, covering all species in the community and analysing the data using nonparametric bootstrapping generally enable reliable inference on trait distributions, including the central moments, of communities. By providing better estimates of community trait distributions, bootstrapping approaches can improve our ability to link traits to both the processes that generate them and their effects on ecosystems.

Maitner, Brian S.↗

Leveraging Inequality-Constrained Data for Enhanced Liquidus Temperature Prediction in Nuclear Waste Glass Melts

Inequality-constrained data are frequently discarded in engineering, leading to significant information loss in data-scarce domains like glass characterization in nuclear waste vitrification. This paper presents a nonparametric censored-data regression framework based on an l1-norm optimization criterion that leverages slack variables to integrate left-, right-, and interval-constrained observations into training without distributional assumptions. Validated on synthetic data and a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) for predicting liquidus temperature (TL), the method improved R2 from 0.60 to 0.89 and reduced Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 48% (51.46 to 26.89?rC) on deterministic values. The traditional models failed to satisfy any inequality constraints while the proposed l1-norm PINN satisfies 81.25% of the constraints. The proposed framework effectively extracts actionable information from previously unusable data to enhance predictive accuracy, reduce epistemic uncertainty, and ensure physical consistency in complex industrial applications.

Garcia-Morado, Erick↗

Bayesian analysis of energy and count rate data for detection of low count rate radioactive sources

We propose a radiation detection system which generates its own discrete sampling distribution based on past measurements of background. The advantage to this approach is that it can take into account variations in background with respect to time, location, energy spectra, detector-specific characteristics (i.e. different efficiencies at different count rates and energies), etc. This would therefore be a 'machine learning' approach, in which the algorithm updates and improves its characterization of background over time. The system would have a 'learning mode,' in which it measures and analyzes background count rates, and a 'detection mode,' in which it compares measurements from an unknown source against its unique background distribution. By characterizing and accounting for variations in the background, general purpose radiation detectors can be improved with little or no increase in cost. The statistical and computational techniques to perform this kind of analysis have already been developed. The necessary signal analysis can be accomplished using existing Bayesian algorithms which account for multiple channels, multiple detectors, and multiple time intervals. Furthermore, Bayesian machine-learning techniques have already been developed which, with trivial modifications, can generate appropriate decision thresholds based on the comparison of new measurements against a nonparametric sampling distribution. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Correlation of free-response and receiver-operating-characteristic area-under-the-curve estimates: Results from independently conducted FROC/ROC studies in mammography

Purpose: From independently conducted free-response receiver operating characteristic (FROC) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) experiments, to study fixed-reader associations between three estimators: the area under the alternative FROC (AFROC) curve computed from FROC data, the area under the ROC curve computed from FROC highest rating data, and the area under the ROC curve computed from confidence-of-disease ratings. Methods: Two hundred mammograms, 100 of which were abnormal, were processed by two image-processing algorithms and interpreted by four radiologists under the FROC paradigm. From the FROC data, inferred-ROC data were derived, using the highest rating assumption. Eighteen months afterwards, the images were interpreted by the same radiologists under the conventional ROC paradigm; conventional-ROC data (in contrast to inferred-ROC data) were obtained. FROC and ROC (inferred, conventional) data were analyzed using the nonparametric area-under-the-curve (AUC), (AFROC and ROC curve, respectively). Pearson correlation was used to quantify the degree of association between the modality-specific AUC indices and standard errors were computed using the bootstrap-after-bootstrap method. The magnitude of the correlations was assessed by comparison with computed Obuchowski-Rockette fixed reader correlations. Results: Average Pearson correlations (with 95% confidence intervals in square brackets) were: Corr(FROC, inferred ROC) = 0.76[0.64, 0.84] > Corr(inferred ROC, conventional ROC) = 0.40[0.18, 0.58] > Corr (FROC, conventional ROC) = 0.32[0.16, 0.46]. Conclusions: Correlation between FROC and inferred-ROC data AUC estimates was high. Correlation between inferred- and conventional-ROC AUC was similar to the correlation between two modalities for a single reader using one estimation method, suggesting that the highest rating assumption might be questionable.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Correlation between model observer and human observer performance in CT imaging when lesion location is uncertain

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between model observer and human observer performance in CT imaging for the task of lesion detection and localization when the lesion location is uncertain.Methods: Two cylindrical rods (3-mm and 5-mm diameters) were placed in a 35 × 26 cm torso-shaped water phantom to simulate lesions with −15 HU contrast at 120 kV. The phantom was scanned 100 times on a 128-slice CT scanner at each of four dose levels (CTDIvol = 5.7, 11.4, 17.1, and 22.8 mGy). Regions of interest (ROIs) around each lesion were extracted to generate images with signal-present, with each ROI containing 128 × 128 pixels. Corresponding ROIs of signal-absent images were generated from images without lesion mimicking rods. The location of the lesion (rod) in each ROI was randomly distributed by moving the ROIs around each lesion. Human observer studies were performed by having three trained observers identify the presence or absence of lesions, indicating the lesion location in each image and scoring confidence for the detection task on a 6-point scale. The same image data were analyzed using a channelized Hotelling model observer (CHO) with Gabor channels. Internal noise was added to the decision variables for the model observer study. Area under the curve (AUC) of ROC and localization ROC (LROC) curves were calculated using a nonparametric approach. The Spearman's rank order correlation between the average performance of the human observers and the model observer performance was calculated for the AUC of both ROC and LROC curves for both the 3- and 5-mm diameter lesions.Results: In both ROC and LROC analyses, AUC values for the model observer agreed well with the average values across the three human observers. The Spearman's rank order correlation values for both ROC and LROC analyses for both the 3- and 5-mm diameter lesions were all 1.0, indicating perfect rank ordering agreement of the figures of merit (AUC) between the average performance of the human observers and the model observer performance.Conclusions: In CT imaging of different sizes of low-contrast lesions (−15 HU), the performance of CHO with Gabor channels was highly correlated with human observer performance for the detection and localization tasks with uncertain lesion location in CT imaging at four clinically relevant dose levels. This suggests the ability of Gabor CHO model observers to meaningfully assess CT image quality for the purpose of optimizing scan protocols and radiation dose levels in detection and localization tasks for low-contrast lesions.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Regional radiation dose susceptibility within the parotid gland: Effects on salivary loss and recovery

Purpose: Xerostomia is one of the most likely late toxic effects of radiotherapy treatment in patients with head-and-neck cancers. Modern treatment techniques can incorporate knowledge of complication risk into treatment plans. To this end, the authors attempt to quantify the regional radiotherapy dose-dependence of salivary output loss and recovery in a prospective study. Methods: Salivary output was collected from patients undergoing radiotherapy treatment for head-and-neck cancers at the BC Cancer Agency between February 2008 and May 2013. Regional dose-dependence (i.e., dose susceptibility) of loss and recovery is quantified using nonparametric (Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients, local linear regression) and parametric (least-sum of squares, least-median of squares) techniques. Results: Salivary flow recovery was seen in 79 of 102 patients considered (p < 0.0001, Wilcoxon sign rank test). Output loss was strongly correlated with left- and right parotid combined dose φ = min (D{sub L}, 45 Gy) + min (D{sub R}, 45 Gy), and can be accurately predicted. Median early loss (three months) was 72% of baseline, while median overall loss (1 yr) was 56% of baseline. Fitting an exponential model to whole parotid yields dose sensitivities A{sub 3m} = 0.0604 Gy{sup −1} and A{sub 1y} = 0.0379 Gy{sup −1}. Recovery was not significantly associated with dose. Hints of lateral organ sub-segment dose–response dimorphism were observed. Conclusions: Sub-segmentation appears to predict neither loss nor recovery with any greater precision than whole parotid mean dose, though it is not any worse. Sparing the parotid to a combined dose φ of <50 Gy is recommended for a patient to keep ≈40% of baseline function and thus avoid severe xerostomia at 12 months post-treatment. It seems unlikely that a population’s mean recovery will exceed 20%–30% of baseline output at 1 yr after radiotherapy treatment using current (whole-organ based) clinical guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Comparison of prone versus supine 18F-FDG-PET of locally advanced breast cancer: Phantom and preliminary clinical studies

Purpose: Previous studies have demonstrated how imaging of the breast with patients lying prone using a supportive positioning device markedly facilitates longitudinal and/or multimodal image registration. In this contribution, the authors’ primary objective was to determine if there are differences in the standardized uptake value (SUV) derived from [{sup 18}F]fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in breast tumors imaged in the standard supine position and in the prone position using a specialized positioning device. Methods: A custom positioning device was constructed to allow for breast scanning in the prone position. Rigid and nonrigid phantom studies evaluated differences in prone and supine PET. Clinical studies comprised 18F-FDG-PET of 34 patients with locally advanced breast cancer imaged in the prone position (with the custom support) followed by imaging in the supine position (without the support). Mean and maximum values (SUV{sub peak} and SUV{sub max}, respectively) were obtained from tumor regions-of-interest for both positions. Prone and supine SUV were linearly corrected to account for the differences in 18F-FDG uptake time. Correlation, Bland–Altman, and nonparametric analyses were performed on uptake time-corrected and uncorrected data. Results: SUV from the rigid PET breast phantom imaged in the prone position with the support device was 1.9% lower than without the support device. In the nonrigid PET breast phantom, prone SUV with the support device was 5.0% lower than supine SUV without the support device. In patients, the median (range) difference in uptake time between prone and supine scans was 16.4 min (13.4–30.9 min), which was significantly—but not completely—reduced by the linear correction method. SUV{sub peak} and SUV{sub max} from prone versus supine scans were highly correlated, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.91 and 0.90, respectively. Prone SUV{sub peak} and SUV{sub max} were significantly lower than supine in both original and uptake time-adjusted data across a range of index times (P < < 0.0001, Wilcoxon signed rank test). Before correcting for uptake time differences, Bland–Altman analyses revealed proportional bias between prone and supine measurements (SUV{sub peak} and SUV{sub max}) that increased with higher levels of FDG uptake. After uptake time correction, this bias was significantly reduced (P < 0.01). Significant prone-supine differences, with regard to the spatial distribution of lesions relative to isocenter, were observed between the two scan positions, but this was poorly correlated with the residual (uptake time-corrected) prone-supine SUV{sub peak} difference (P = 0.78). Conclusions: Quantitative 18F-FDG-PET/CT of the breast in the prone position is not deleteriously affected by the support device but yields SUV that is consistently lower than those obtained in the standard supine position. SUV differences between scans arising from FDG uptake time differences can be substantially reduced, but not removed entirely, with the current correction method. SUV from the two scan orientations is quantitatively different and should not be assumed equivalent or interchangeable within the same subject. These findings have clinical relevance in that they underscore the importance of patient positioning while scanning as a clinical variable that must be accounted for with longitudinal PET measurement, for example, in the assessment of treatment response.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

3D-SIFT-Flow for atlas-based CT liver image segmentation

Purpose: In this paper, the authors proposed a new 3D registration algorithm, 3D-scale invariant feature transform (SIFT)-Flow, for multiatlas-based liver segmentation in computed tomography (CT) images. Methods: In the registration work, the authors developed a new registration method that takes advantage of dense correspondence using the informative and robust SIFT feature. The authors computed the dense SIFT features for the source image and the target image and designed an objective function to obtain the correspondence between these two images. Labeling of the source image was then mapped to the target image according to the former correspondence, resulting in accurate segmentation. In the fusion work, the 2D-based nonparametric label transfer method was extended to 3D for fusing the registered 3D atlases. Results: Compared with existing registration algorithms, 3D-SIFT-Flow has its particular advantage in matching anatomical structures (such as the liver) that observe large variation/deformation. The authors observed consistent improvement over widely adopted state-of-the-art registration methods such as ELASTIX, ANTS, and multiatlas fusion methods such as joint label fusion. Experimental results of liver segmentation on the MICCAI 2007 Grand Challenge are encouraging, e.g., Dice overlap ratio 96.27% ± 0.96% by our method compared with the previous state-of-the-art result of 94.90% ± 2.86%. Conclusions: Experimental results show that 3D-SIFT-Flow is robust for segmenting the liver from CT images, which has large tissue deformation and blurry boundary, and 3D label transfer is effective and efficient for improving the registration accuracy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantile-Dependent Expressivity of Serum Uric Acid Concentrations

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” occurs when the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g., serum uric acid) is high or low relative to its distribution. Analyses were performed to test whether serum uric acid heritability is quantile-specific and whether this could explain some reported gene-environment interactions. Methods. Serum uric acid concentrations were analyzed from 2151 sibships and 12,068 offspring-parent pairs from the Framingham Heart Study. Quantile-specific heritability from offspring-parent regression slopes (β OP , h 2 = 2β OP /(1 + r spouse )) and full-sib regression slopes (β FS ,h 2 = {(1 + 8r spouse β FS ) 0.5 - 1}/(2r spouse ) was robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1000 bootstrap samples. Results. Quantile-specific h 2 (±SE) increased with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s sex- and age-adjusted uric acid distribution when estimated from β OP (P trend = 0.001): 0.34 ± 0.03 at the 10th, 0.36 ± 0.03 at the 25th, 0.41 ± 0.03 at the 50th, 0.46 ± 0.04 at the 75th, and 0.49 ± 0.05 at the 90th percentile and when estimated from β FS (P trend = 0.006). This is consistent with the larger genetic effect size of (1) the SLC2A9 rs11722228 polymorphism in gout patients vs. controls, (2) the ABCG2 rs2231142 polymorphism in men vs. women, (3) the SLC2A9 rs13113918 polymorphism in obese patients prior to bariatric surgery vs. two-year postsurgery following 29 kg weight loss, (4) the ABCG2 rs6855911 polymorphism in obese vs. nonobese women, and (5) the LRP2 rs2544390 polymorphism in heavier drinkers vs. abstainers. Quantile-dependent expressivity may also explain the larger genetic effect size of an SLC2A9/PKD2/ABCG2 haplotype for high vs. low intakes of alcohol, chicken, or processed meats. Conclusions. Heritability of serum uric acid concentrations is quantile-specific.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗