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At least 253 records · Page 14

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts during the First Advanced LIGO Observing Run and Implications for the Origin of GRB 150906B

We present the results of the search for gravitational waves (GWs) associated with γ-ray bursts detected during the first observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO). We find no evidence of a GW signal for any of the 41 γ-ray bursts for which LIGO data are available with sufficient duration. For all γ-ray bursts, we place lower bounds on the distance to the source using the optimistic assumption that GWs with an energy of 10{sup −2}M{sub ⊙}c{sup 2} were emitted within the 16–500 Hz band, and we find a median 90% confidence limit of 71 Mpc at 150 Hz. For the subset of 19 short/hard γ-ray bursts, we place lower bounds on distance with a median 90% confidence limit of 90 Mpc for binary neutron star (BNS) coalescences, and 150 and 139 Mpc for neutron star–black hole coalescences with spins aligned to the orbital angular momentum and in a generic configuration, respectively. These are the highest distance limits ever achieved by GW searches. We also discuss in detail the results of the search for GWs associated with GRB 150906B, an event that was localized by the InterPlanetary Network near the local galaxy NGC 3313, which is at a luminosity distance of 54 Mpc (z = 0.0124). Assuming the γ-ray emission is beamed with a jet half-opening angle ⩽30{sup ∘}, we exclude a BNS and a neutron star–black hole in NGC 3313 as the progenitor of this event with confidence >99%. Further, we exclude such progenitors up to a distance of 102 Mpc and 170 Mpc, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gene regulatory networks controlling carbohydrate selective deconstruction pathways in fungi

The work performed at Clark University (PI, David Hibbett) was a subcomponent of the research lead by Jonathan Schilling at University of Minnesota (award number DE-SC0019427). The overall goal of this project was to address how fungi metabolize lignocellulose. Specifically, we targeted a carbohydrate-selective group of fungi known as 'brown rot' fungi that are well-aligned to be harness for bioconversion to biofuels and other products. These organisms orchestrate a two-step mechanism that initiates decomposition using oxidative radical-based chemistry and follows with enzymatic attack. We have helped characterize that this mechanism occurs in this sequence, but currently lack the fundamental regulatory information needed to harness these fungi for application. Thus, the major goal of this project was to use systems biology to create an integrated model of brown rot wood decay that couples fungal gene regulation with the metabolite feedbacks used to coordinate a two-step oxidative-hydrolytic mechanism. The research at Clark University focused on phylogenomic analyses of data produced by other project partners. Hence, the Clark component of the research was staged to initiate somewhat after that in other partner laboratories. The major Clark-based accomplishment was to advise on selection of fungal species for analyses of brown rot decay chemistry, and to interpret results in a phylogenetic context. The Clark University group also performed complementary analyses of gene families encoding plant cell wall-degrading enzymes in the the basidiomycete genus Lentinula, as well as analyses of substrate-specific gene expression and RNA editing in brown rot fungi.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗

Magnetic structure and spin dynamics of the quasi-two-dimensional antiferromagnet Zn-doped copper pyrovanadate

We report magnetic properties of the antiferromagnet Zn x Cu 2-x V 2 O 7 (ZnCVO) with x ≈ 0.06 have been thoroughly investigated on powder and single-crystal samples. The crystal structure determination using powder x-ray and neutron diffraction confirms that our ZnCVO samples are isostructural with β-Cu 2 V 2 O 7 (β-CVO) with a small deviation in the lattice parameters. Macroscopic magnetic property measurements also confirm the similarity between the two compounds. The Cu 2+ spins were found to align along the crystallographic c axis, antiparallel to their nearest neighbors connected by the leading exchange interaction J 1 . Spin dynamics reveals a typical symmetric spin-wave dispersion with strong interactions in the bc plane and weak interplane coupling. The exchange interaction analysis indicates that the spin network of ZnCVO is topologically consistent with the previous DFT prediction but the values of leading exchange interactions are contradictory. Furthermore, rather than the predicted 2D honeycomb structure, the spin network in ZnCVO could be better described by the anisotropic 2D spin network composed of J 1 , J 5 , and J 6 interactions, four bonds per one spin site, coupled by weak interplane interactions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

From sequence to protein structure and conformational dynamics with artificial intelligence/machine learning

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded in part for de novo protein structure prediction using AlphaFold2, an artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) model trained on vast amounts of sequence and three-dimensional structure data. AlphaFold2 and related models, including RoseTTAFold and ESMFold, employ specialized neural network architectures driven by attention mechanisms to infer relationships between sequence and structure. At a fundamental level, these AI/ML models operate on the long-standing hypothesis that the structure of a protein is determined by its amino acid sequence. More recently, AlphaFold2 has been adapted for the prediction of multiple protein conformations by subsampling multiple sequence alignments. Herein, we provide an overview of the deterministic relationship between sequence and structure, which was hypothesized over half a century ago with profound implications for the biological sciences ever since. We postulate that protein conformational dynamics are also determined, at least in part, by amino acid sequence and that this relationship may be leveraged for construction of AI/ML models dedicated to predicting protein conformational ensembles. Accordingly, we describe a conceptual model architecture, which may be trained on sequence data in combination with conformationally sensitive structural information, coming primarily from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Notwithstanding certain limitations in this context, NMR offers abundant structural heterogeneity conducive to conformational ensemble prediction. As NMR and other data continue to accumulate, sequence-informed prediction of protein structural dynamics with AI/ML has the potential to emerge as a transformative capability across the biological sciences.

Artificial intelligence↗

Modeling Electric Vehicle Charging Load Using Origin-Destination Data

The accelerating adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) poses challenges to the power grid, necessitating precise representation of mobility patterns for effective infrastructure upgrades. Traditional simulation-based charging demand estimation faces limitations in generating trip chains reflective of actual travel patterns without complex network modeling. Hence, an innovative agent-based trip chain generation model is introduced to overcome these challenges. Drawing from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the NextGen NHTS origin-destination add-on data for Clarke County, Georgia, this study proposes a simulation method capturing both temporal and spatial mobility patterns without relying on extensive network topology data. The resulting trip chains predict EV charging load at the Census Block Group level, validated with a 1.03 correlation to actual trip counts, affirming their reflective accuracy. Two charging scenarios, residential-only and charging-everywhere, reveal distinct demand profiles. The charging-everywhere scenario aligns closely with the trip profile, while the residential-only scenario exhibits an afternoon peak slightly surpassing the former. This study contributes a data-driven charging demand estimation methodology, offering critical insights for grid resiliency planning amid the evolving landscape of EV adoption.

Pan, Melrose↗

Tuning Conjugated Polymer Chain Packing for Stretchable Semiconductors

We report in order to apply polymer semiconductors to stretchable electronics, they need to be easily deformed under strain without being damaged. A small number of conjugated polymers, typically with semicrystalline packing structures, have been reported to exhibit mechanical stretchability. Herein, a method is reported to modify polymer semiconductor packing-structure using a molecular additive, dioctyl phthalate (DOP), which is found to act as a molecular spacer, to be inserted between the amorphous chain networks and disrupt the crystalline packing. As a result, large-crystal growth is suppressed while short-range aggregations of conjugated polymers are promoted, which leads to an improved mechanical stretchability without affecting charge-carrier transport. Due to the reduced conjugated polymer intermolecular interactions, strain-induced chain alignment and crystallization are observed. By adding DOP to a well-known conjugated polymer, poly[2,5-bis(4-decyltetradecyl)pyrrolo[3,4-c]pyrrole-1,4-(2H,5H)-dione-(E)-1,2-di(2,2 '-bithiophen-5-yl)ethene] (DPPTVT), stretchable transistors are obtained with anisotropic charge-carrier mobilities under strain, and stable current output under strain up to 100%.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NNSA Minority Serving Institute Partnership Program (MSIPP)— Advanced Synergistic Program for Indigenous Research in Engineering (ASPIRE) (FY22 Q1 Progress Report)

In 2016, the National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA) initiated the Minority Serving Institution Partnership Plan (MSIPP) targeting Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs) to offer programs that will prepare students for technical careers in NNSA’s laboratories and production plants. The MSIPP consortium’s approach is as follows: 1) align investments at the college and university level to develop a curriculum and workforce needed to support NNSA’s nuclear weapon enterprise mission, and 2) to enhance research and education at under-represented colleges and universities. The first TCU consortium that MSIPP launched was known as the Advanced Manufacturing Network Initiative (AMNI) whose purpose was to develop additive manufacturing (AM) learning opportunities. The AMNI consortium consisted of Bay Mills Community College, Cankdeska Cikana Community College, Navajo Tech University, Salish Kootenai Community College, Turtle Mountain Community College, and United Tribes Technical College. In 2016, the American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC), the AMNI consortium and the Southwestern Indian Polytechnic Institute (SIPI), in collaboration with Sandia National Labs, using a grant by NNSA hosted the first TCU Advanced Manufacturing Technology Summer Institute (TCU AMTSI). The AMNI consortium will officially end Sept. 2022. However, building on the successes of AMNI, in FY22 NNSA’s MSIPP launched three additional consortiums: (1) the Indigenous Mutual Partnership to Advanced Cybersecurity Technology (IMPACT), which focuses on STEM and cybersecurity, (2) the Advanced Synergistic Program for Indigenous Research in Engineering (ASPIRE), which focuses on STEM and the electrical and mechanical engineering skills set needed for renewable and distributed energy systems, and (3) the Partnership for Advanced Manufacturing Education and Research (PAMER), which focuses on developing and maintaining a sustainable pathway for a highly trained, next-generation additive manufacturing workforce and a corresponding community of subject matter experts for NNSA enterprises. The following report summarizes the status update during this quarter for the ASPIRE program.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Smart quantum statistical imaging beyond the Abbe-Rayleigh criterion

The wave nature of light imposes limits on the resolution of optical imaging systems. For over a century, the Abbe-Rayleigh criterion has been utilized to assess the spatial resolution limits of imaging instruments. Recently, there has been interest in using spatial projective measurements to enhance the resolution of imaging systems. Unfortunately, these schemes require a priori information regarding the coherence properties of “unknown” light beams and impose stringent alignment conditions. Here, we introduce a smart quantum camera for superresolving imaging that exploits the self-learning features of artificial intelligence to identify the statistical fluctuations of unknown mixtures of light sources at each pixel. This is achieved through a universal quantum model that enables the design of artificial neural networks for the identification of photon fluctuations. Our protocol overcomes limitations of existing superresolution schemes based on spatial mode projections, and consequently provides alternative methods for microscopy, remote sensing, and astronomy.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗

Birefringence tests of gravity with multimessenger binaries

Extensions to General Relativity (GR) allow the polarization of gravitational waves (GW) from astrophysical sources to suffer from amplitude and velocity birefringence, which respectively induce changes in the ellipticity and orientation of the polarization tensor. Here, we introduce a multi-messenger approach to test this polarization behavior of GWs during their cosmological propagation using binary sources, for which the initial polarization is determined by the inclination and orientation angles of the orbital angular momentum vector with respect to the line of sight. In particular, we use spatially resolved radio imaging of the jet from a binary neutron star (BNS) merger to constrain the orientation angle and hence the emitted polarization orientation of the GW signal at the site of the merger, and compare to that observed on Earth by GW detectors. For GW170817, using past measurements of the inclination angle, we constrain the deviation from GR due to amplitude birefringence to κ A = $-0.12^{+0.60}_ {-0.61}$, while the velocity birefringence parameter κ V remains unconstrained. The inability to constrain κ V is due to the low amplitude of GW170817 in the Virgo detector, and measurements of the polarization orientation require information from a combination of multiple detectors with different alignments. For this reason, we also mock future BNS mergers with resolved afterglow proper motion and project that κ V could be constrained to a precision of 5 rad (corresponding to an angular shift of the GW polarization of δ φV ≈ 0.2 rad for a BNS at 100 Mpc) by a future network of third-generation ground-based GW detectors such as Cosmic Explorer and the radio High Sensitivity Array. Crucially, this velocity birefringence effect cannot be constrained with dark binary mergers as it requires polarization information at the emission time, which can be provided only by electromagnetic emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Acoustic Rocket Signatures Collected by Smartphones

Rockets generate complex acoustic signatures that can be detected over a thousand kilometers from their source. While many far-field acoustic rocket signatures have been collected and released to the public, very few signatures collected at distances less than 100 km are available. This work presents a curated and annotated dataset of acoustic signatures of 243 rocket launches collected by a network of smartphones stationed at distances between 10 and 70 km from the launch sites, resulting in 1089 individual recordings. Due to the frequency dependence of atmospheric attenuation and the relatively short propagation distances, higher-frequency features not preserved in most publicly available data are observed. The signals are time-aligned to allow for different segments of the signal (ignition, launch, trajectory, chronology) to be more easily examined and compared. Initial analysis of the features of these rocket launch stages is performed, observed features are compared to those found in the existing literature, and comparisons between signals from launches of different rocket types are made. The dataset is annotated and made available to the public to aid future analysis of the characteristics and source mechanisms of rocket acoustics as well as applications such as rocket detection and classification models.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Crustal and Upper Mantle Structure the Middle East and Southwest Asia for Improved Waveform Simulations Using Openly Available Broadband Data

We present a new model of radially anisotropic seismic wavespeeds for the crust and upper mantle of a broad region of the Middle East and Southwest Asia (MESWA) derived from adjoint waveform tomography. We inverted waveforms from 192 Global Centroid Moment Tensor earthquakes (MW 5.5-7.0) recorded by over 1000 openly available broadband seismic stations from permanent and temporary networks in the region. Spatial coverage of the available data is highly uneven due to earthquakes clustered along plate boundaries and sparse coverage of open seismic networks in the region. We considered three possible starting models: the SPiRaL global model (Simmons et al., 2021); MEC-1 (Kaviani et al., 2020); and CSEM2.0 (Noe et al., 2023). Because the SPiRaL model provides good fits to the observed waveforms measured by the time-bandwidth product of selected windows in several period bands, provides all the necessary parameters and covers the entire domain we used it for the starting model with the period band 50-100 seconds. Inversion iterations proceeded using time-frequency phase misfits in six stages and 54 total iterations reducing the minimum period to 30 seconds. Our final model, MESWA, provides improved waveform fits compared to the starting model for both the data used in the inversion and an independent validation data set of 66 events. Two metrics of waveform fit (the time-frequency phase misfit used in the optimization and normalized L2 misfit) were both reduced by nearly 60% for both data sets and MESWA provides significantly larger misfit reductions relative to the SPiRaL model than the MEC-1 or CSEM models. We also find that MESWA provides a larger time-bandwidth product of selected windows indicating that more information content of the observed waveforms is explained by MESWA than the other models. Our new model reveals tectonic features imaged by other studies and methods but in a new holistic model of shear and compressional wavespeeds (v S and v P , respectively) with anisotropy covering the crust and uppermost mantle of a larger domain. MESWA has smaller scale-length features and tends to sharpen some features relative to the SPiRaL starting model. Examples include: low crustal v S in the TurkishIranian Plateau, Zagros Mountains, Afghan Central Blocks and Sulaiman Fold Belt; low mantle vSfollowing divergent (Gulf of Aden, Red Sea) and transform (Dead Sea Fault) margins of the Arabian Plate; low and high v S in the mantle beneath the Arabian Shield and Platform, respectively. Low vS is imaged below Cenozoic volcanic centers of the Arabian Peninsula, the so-called Mecca-Madina-Nafud (MMN) Line. Positive anisotropy (v SH > v SV ) is inferred for asthenospheric depths across the region except where up/downwelling may influence fabric alignment (e.g. Afar, Red Sea, Arabian Shield). Elevated vS tracks Makran subduction under southeast Iran. MESWA resembles the SPiRaL model in its long-wavelength structure, but enhances shorter wavelengths features on the order of 200 km and smaller. The resulting model could be used for as a starting model for further improvements, say using waveforms from in-country seismic networks that are not openly available or smaller-scale studies targeting shorter period waveforms. The model also could be used for source characterization and moment tensor inversion to improve earthquake hazard studies and nuclear explosion monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Control and Information Systems for the National Ignition Facility

Orchestration of every National Ignition Facility (NIF) shot cycle is managed by the Integrated Computer Control System (ICCS), which uses a scalable software architecture running code on more than 1950 front-end processors, embedded controllers, and supervisory servers. The ICCS operates laser and industrial control hardware containing 66 000 control and monitor points to ensure that all of NIF’s laser beams arrive at the target within 30 ps of each other and are aligned to a pointing accuracy of less than 50 μm root-mean-square, while ensuring that a host of diagnostic instruments record data in a few billionths of a second. NIF’s automated control subsystems are built from a common object-oriented software framework that distributes the software across the computer network and achieves interoperation between different software languages and target architectures. A large suite of business and scientific software tools supports experimental planning, experimental setup, facility configuration, and post-shot analysis. Standard business services using open-source software, commercial workflow tools, and database and messaging technologies have been developed. An information technology infrastructure consisting of servers, network devices, and storage provides the foundation for these systems. Thus, this work is an overview of the control and information systems used to support a wide variety of experiments during the National Ignition Campaign.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Causal Evaluations for Identifying Differences between Observations and Earth System Models

We use a nascent data-driven causal discovery method to find and compare causal relationships in observed data and climate model output. We consider ten different features in the Arctic climate collected from public databases on observational and Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) data. In identifying and analyzing the resulting causal networks, we make meaningful comparisons between observed and climate model interdependencies. This work demonstrates our ability to apply the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm to Arctic climate data, that there are noticeable similarities between observed and simulated Arctic climate dynamics, and that further work is needed to identify specific areas for improvement to better align models with natural observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Graph Neural Networks for Parameterized Quantum Circuits Expressibility Estimation (Rev.1)

Parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs) are fundamental to quantum machine learning (QML), quantum optimization, and variational quantum algorithms (VQAs). The expressibility of PQCs is a measure that determines their capability to harness the full potential of the quantum state space. It is thus a crucial guidepost to know when selecting a particular PQC ansatz. However, the existing technique for expressibility computation through statistical estimation requires a large number of samples, which poses significant challenges due to time and computational resource constraints. This paper introduces a novel approach for expressibility estimation of PQCs using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). We demonstrate the predictive power of our GNN model with a dataset consisting of 25,000 samples from the noiseless IBM QASM Simulator and 12,000 samples from three distinct noisy quantum backends. The model accurately estimates expressibility, with root mean square errors (RMSE) of 0.05 and 0.06 for the noiseless and noisy backends, respectively. We compare our model’s predictions with reference circuits from Sim et al. and IBM Qiskit’s hardwareefficient ansatz sets to further evaluate our model’s performance. Our experimental evaluation in noiseless and noisy scenarios reveals a close alignment with ground truth expressibility values, highlighting the model’s efficacy. Moreover, our model exhibits promising extrapolation capabilities, predicting expressibility values with low RMSE for out-of-range qubit circuits trained solely on only up to 5-qubit circuit sets. This work thus provides a reliable means of efficiently evaluating the expressibility of diverse PQCs on noiseless simulators and hardware.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Health impact assessment of Roma housing policies in Central and Eastern Europe: A comparative analysis

Marginalised Roma communities in European countries live in substandard housing conditions the improvement of which has been one of the major issues of the Decade of Roma Inclusion, the ongoing intergovernmental European Roma programme. The paper presents EU-funded health impact assessments of national Roma housing policies and programmes in 3 Central and Eastern European countries in light of the evaluation of a completed local project in a fourth CEE country so as to compare predicted effects to observed ones. Housing was predicted to have beneficial health effects by improving indoor and outdoor conditions, access to services, and socioeconomic conditions. Negative impacts were predicted only in terms of maintenance expenses and housing tenure. However, observed impacts of the completed local project did not fully support predictions especially in terms of social networks, satisfaction with housing and neighbourhood, and inhabitant safety. In order to improve the predictive value of HIA, more evidence should be produced by the careful evaluation of locally implemented housing projects. In addition, current evidence is in favour of planning Roma housing projects at the local rather than at the national level in alignment with the principle of subsidiarity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Predictive validity of HIA of national Roma housing policies - in light of current evidence - is low. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Implemented housing projects should be comprehensively evaluated to improve reliability of HIA. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Roma housing projects should be planned at the local rather than at the national level. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer HIA should be used to plan Roma housing projects at the local level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗