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At least 253 records · Page 14

Moisture‐Budget Drivers of Global Projections of Meteorological Drought From Multiple GCM Large Ensembles

Future projections of global meteorological drought are evaluated in the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, including an evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget, conditioned on drought years. Drought is defined as 5‐year running‐mean annual precipitation below some threshold, for example, 10th percentile. Drought increases in frequency over the subtropics, in addition to certain tropical regions, consistent with previous studies. Here, the moisture‐budget decomposition allows drought to be defined as mean‐flow, eddy, or feedback droughts, depending on which term in the equation contributes the largest negative interannual anomaly. In the historical climate, mean‐flow droughts constitute most droughts at low latitudes; eddy droughts are equally common at higher latitudes; feedback droughts (i.e., droughts exacerbated by land–atmosphere feedbacks) constitute almost all droughts in water‐limited subtropical/Mediterranean regions. The future drought increases are predominantly due to increases in feedback droughts in regions where these droughts are common historically but also over the Amazon. However, over most Mediterranean‐type regions mean‐flow droughts are also large contributors, resulting from dynamics. Eddy droughts also contribute to future increases along the equatorward flanks of historical eddy‐driven jets, likely reflecting poleward shifts therein. Model uncertainty is particularly large over the Amazon and Australia, a reflection of model diversity in processes associated with land‐atmosphere interaction. Based on these results, an availability of 3‐D atmospheric data from a wider swath of global climate model large ensembles could help constrain global drought projections based on the representation of drought mechanisms in the historical climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of Multisensory Virtual Reality Nature on Affect, Presence, and Restorativeness

Virtual reality (VR) can provide access to restorative environments and sensory stimulation for individuals in isolated, confined, and extreme environments. We developed a nature-based VR intervention featuring three scenes (Garden, Forest, Beach) and examined the effects of multisensory augmentation with location-based olfactory, wind, and thermal stimuli (VR+OWT). Over a two-week period, fifty-one participants were assigned to a no-intervention control, standard audiovisual VR, or augmented VR (VR+OWT) condition. Data collection included weekly assessments of affect, stress, and cognitive performance; post-VR measures of affect, presence, and perceived restorativeness; and open-ended feedback. Both VR and VR+OWT groups produced immediate and sustained reductions in negative affect with no sustained systematic benefits on cognitive performance. The addition of olfactory, wind, and thermal stimuli enhanced presence for some scenes; however, feedback indicated that sensory mismatches and stimulus intensity occasionally detracted from the experience and may have contributed to lower coherence ratings in the VR+OWT group. In contrast, the perceived restorativeness of the VR environment was driven primarily by scene content (Garden vs Forest vs Beach) rather than the level of sensory stimulation. These findings support the potential of virtual nature to promote well-being and underscore the importance of coherence across sensory modalities for multisensory augmentation.

Virtual Reality Intervention↗

The effect of clouds on the earth's solar and infrared radiation budgets

The effect of global cloudiness on the solar and infrared components of the earth's radiation balance is studied in general circulation model experiments. A wintertime simulation is conducted in which the cloud radiative transfer calculations use realistic cloud optical properties and are fully interactive with model-generated cloudiness. This simulation is compared to others in which the clouds are alternatively non-interactive with respect to the solar or thermal radiation calculations. Other cloud processes (formation, latent heat release, precipitation, vertical mixing) were accurately simulated in these experiments. It is concluded that on a global basis clouds increase the global radiation balance by 40 W/sq m by absorbing longwave radiation, but decrease it by 56 W/sq m by reflecting solar radiation to space. The net cloud effect is therefore a reduction of the radiation balance by 16 W/sq m, and is dominated by the cloud albedo effect. Changes in cloud frequency and distribution and in atmospheric and land temperatures are also reported for the control and for the non-interactive simulations. In general, removal of the clouds' infrared absorption cools the atmosphere and causes additional cloudiness to occur, while removal of the clouds' solar radiative properties warms the atmosphere and causes fewer clouds to form. It is suggested that layered clouds and convective clouds over water enter the climate system as positive feedback components, while convective clouds over land enter as negative components.

Herman, G. F.↗

Cirrus radiative characteristics and the radiative impact of small particles

An understanding of the way radiation interacts with clouds is vital for understanding the sensitivity of the earth's climate to both natural and anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere. Cirrus clouds are thought to be an important modulator of climate sensitivity. The feedback effect of cirrus on climate can be positive or negative depending upon the microphysics and scattering properties of the cloud. These properties of cirrus clouds are not well understood partly because of their thin tenuous nature and partly because of their microphysical properties. The high altitude and cold temperatures within these clouds along with their transparency greatly increase the difficulty in which accurate measurements can be obtained and interpreted both by aircraft and remote sensing. Therefore, the understanding of the interaction of radiation in cirrus clouds is crucial to determining the ways in which these clouds interact with climate forcings. The sensitivity of the radiative budgets of cirrus cloudiness to their microphysical composition and the environments in which they occur is examined. Especially important is the impact of small particles on the radiative properties of cirrus. Remote sensing estimates of the effective crystal size of cirrus and in situ measurements show large differences up to 100 microns. Thus it becomes important to identify the sources of these differences. For this reason, simulations of actual FIRE cases are compared with the in situ radiative observations and inferences are made concerning the cause of the discrepancies.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗

Topographic Controls on the Distribution of Summer Monsoon Precipitation over South Asia

In this work, we use a high-resolution (9 km) one-way nested regional climate modeling framework to systematically evaluate individual and aggregate roles of various components of topography in the precipitation distribution during South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM). While it is not the arrival but the north-northwestward extent of summer monsoon precipitation that is regulated by the presence of elevated surfaces in South Asia, both the thermal and mechanical topographic forcing play a role. Topography not only provides mechanical uplifting and prevents dry air entrainment, it also helps regulate the strength of upper level anticyclone and tropical easterly jet, all of which are necessary to sustain a conducive environment for monsoon precipitation in the South Asian summer. In turn, precipitation feedbacks positively by accelerating the tropospheric diabatic warming through atmospheric latent heating and by maintaining the moisture supply through local recycling. Modifications in the topography, particularly the removal of the Tibetan Plateau, substantially modulates the moist flow in the lower troposphere and the anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere to an extent that the northern branch of SASM becomes substantially weaker. These changes give way to negative precipitation anomalies and eventually to an environment where the cycle of feedbacks that runs the process of monsoon progression over land becomes inefficient. The design of topographic modification experiments can influence precipitation response; therefore, we advise caution in the interpretation of these and previously reported results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduction of the elevator illusion from continued hypergravity exposure and visual error-corrective feedback

Ten subjects served as their own controls in two conditions of continuous, centrifugally produced hypergravity (+2 Gz) and a 1-G control condition. Before and after exposure, open-loop measures were obtained of (1) motor control, (2) visual localization, and (3) hand-eye coordination. During exposure in the visual feedback/hypergravity condition, subjects received terminal visual error-corrective feedback from their target pointing, and in the no-visual feedback/hypergravity condition they pointed open loop. As expected, the motor control measures for both experimental conditions revealed very short lived underreaching (the muscle-loading effect) at the outset of hypergravity and an equally transient negative aftereffect on returning to 1 G. The substantial (approximately 17 degrees) initial elevator illusion experienced in both hypergravity conditions declined over the course of the exposure period, whether or not visual feedback was provided. This effect was tentatively attributed to habituation of the otoliths. Visual feedback produced a smaller additional decrement and a postexposure negative after-effect, possible evidence for visual recalibration. Surprisingly, the target-pointing error made during hypergravity in the no-visual-feedback condition was substantially less than that predicted by subjects' elevator illusion. This finding calls into question the neural outflow model as a complete explanation of this illusion.

NASA Program Space Physiology and Countermeasures↗

Experimental investigation of advanced turbine control strategies and load-mitigation measures with a model-scale floating offshore wind turbine system

To advance the control co-design of offshore wind energy systems, the authors perform basin-scale experiments with a fully instrumented and actuated floating offshore wind turbine model. The model consists of a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme 15-MW reference turbine atop the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. The Reference OpenSource Controller provides real-time blade pitch and generator torque control. Here we aim to develop an open data set for the validation of numerical models in predicting the influence of turbine control and load-mitigation measures. For this purpose, we measure the effects of advanced turbine control features, including peak shaving and floating feedback as well as hull-based control using tuned mass dampers on the system. Overall, the results demonstrate measurable and consistent influences from the control and load-mitigation measures, thus confirming the usefulness as a validation data set. Peak shaving attenuates the response to wind turbulence at near-rated wind speed. Floating feedback reduces the load and platform pitch motion associated with the negative damping induced by blade pitch control. The tuned mass dampers also attenuate the system response near the targeted frequencies under suitable conditions. We also identify detrimental side effects of each load-mitigation measure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dynamics of ENSO Phase–Locking and Its Biases in Climate Models

Here, the contributions of different oceanic feedbacks to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking are examined by deriving ENSO dynamics based on the recharge-discharge framework. In observations, the significant winter preference of the ENSO peak is determined by a strong seasonal modulation of SST growth rate, which is controlled by the zonal advective and thermodynamic feedbacks. However, the majority of climate models fail to simulate ENSO phase-locking because the contribution of zonal advective feedback to the seasonal modulation of the SST growth rate is much smaller compared to observations. The weak annual cycle of the SST-current coupling coefficient and small annual mean of the negative climatological zonal SST gradient are two factors contributing to the weak-biased seasonality of zonal advective feedback. Further analysis shows that the Niño3.4 SSTA has better phase-locking performance than Niño3 SSTA in the climate models due to the better simulation of zonal advection feedback in the Niño3.4 region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intercomparison of MJO Column Moist Static Energy and Water Vapor Budget among Six Modern Reanalysis Products

This study conducts an intercomparison of the column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) and water vapor budget of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) among six modern global reanalysis products (RAs). Inter-RA differences in the mean MSE, MJO MSE anomalies, individual MSE budget terms, and their relative contributions to the propagation and maintenance of MJO MSE anomalies are examined. Also investigated is the relationship between the MJO column water vapor (CWV) budget residuals with the other CWV budget terms as well as with the two parameters that characterize cloud–radiation feedback and moisture–convection coupling. Results show a noticeable inter-RA spread in the mean-state MSE, especially its vertical structure. In all RAs, horizontal MSE advection dominates the propagation of the MJO MSE while column-integrated longwave radiative heating and vertical MSE advection are found to be the key processes for MJO maintenance. The MSE budget terms directly affected by the model parameterization schemes exhibit high uncertainty. The differences in anomalous vertical velocity mainly contribute to the large differences in vertical MSE advection among the RAs. The budget residuals show large inter-RA differences and have nonnegligible contributions to MJO maintenance and propagation in most RAs. RAs that underestimate (overestimate) the strength of cloud–radiation feedback and the convective moisture adjustment time scale tend to have positive (negative) MJO CWV budget residual, indicating the critical role of these processes in the maintenance of MJO CWV anomalies. Our results emphasize that a correct representation of the interactions among moisture, convection, cloud, and radiation is the key for an accurate depiction of the MJO MSE and CWV budget in RAs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A simple model for 100 K-year oscillations in glaciation

A simple climatic model which produces glaciation cycles of 100 K periods in response to forcing by 20 K, 40 K, and 100 K periods is described. The model is based on Milankovitch's (1930) hypothesis that glaciation fluctuations are forced by orbital variation and the associated change in insolation. The sea ice/snow cover line for the model, and the relation between heat variations and the ice/snow line are analyzed. The sea ice/snow cover line for the model is between the pole and 53 deg latitude and the line's position is the forcing for the glaciation cycle. Examples of the model's response to forcing are presented and evaluated. The negative glaciation permitted by the model is studied. The role of CO2 feedback in the glaciation cycle is investigated.

Lindzen, R. S.↗

A Discussion of Upper Stratospheric Ozone Asymmetry and Ozone Trend Changes

Analyses from SAGE I/II version 6.0 data exhibit upper stratospheric ozone trends which are not significantly different from those in version 5.96 data. Trend calculations show larger downward trends at mid-high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in 1980s. There are also indications of decreasing downward trends with time from 1979 to 1999. We have used a chemical box model and the UARS measurements of long lived gases, CH4, H2O, NO(x), and temperature to show that, with a constant Cl(sub y) trend, a hemispheric ozone trend asymmetry of 1%/decade at 45 deg. around 43 km is expected due to the hemispheric differences of temperature and CH4 during late winter/early. Also ozone trends should have been approximately 1%/decade more negative from 1979-1989 than from 1989-1999 because of the chemical feedbacks. The model results further indicate that both the reported decrease in CH4 and the increase in H2O in HALOE measurements will result in a larger downward ozone trend and a decrease in the hemispheric ozone trend asymmetry.

Li, Jinlong↗

The effect of modifying response and performance feedback parameters on the CNV in humans

The effect on the CNV of sustained and delayed motor response with the dominant and nondominant hand in the presence and absence of visual performance feedback, was studied in 15 male adults. Monopolar scalp recordings were obtained at Fz, Cz, Pz, and bilaterally over the motor hand area. Results indicated that the magnitude of the CNV was greater in the delayed than sustained response task, greater in the presence than absence of feedback, and greater over the motor hand area contralateral to movement. Frontal CNV habituated in the sustained, but not the delayed response task, suggested that frontal negative variations in the former case signify an orienting response to novelty or uncertainty. The absence of habituation in the delay condition was interpreted in terms of the motor inhibitory function of frontal association cortex. Performance feedback appeared to enhance CNV indirectly by increasing the motivation of subjects. A multiprocess conception of CNV was proposed in which vortex-negative slow potentials reflect a multiplicity of psychophysiological processes occurring at a variety of cortical and subcortical locations in the brain preparatory to a motor or mental action.

Otto, D. A.↗

A declining major merger fraction with redshift in the local Universe from the largest-yet catalogue of major and minor mergers in SDSS

It is difficult to accurately identify galaxy mergers and it is an even larger challenge to classify them by their mass ratio or merger stage. In previous work we used a suite of simulated mergers to create a classification technique that uses linear discriminant analysis to identify major and minor mergers. Here, we apply this technique to 1.3 million galaxies from the SDSS DR16 photometric catalogue and present the probability that each galaxy is a major or minor merger, splitting the classifications by merger stages (early, late, post-coalescence). We present publicly available imaging predictor values and all of the above classifications for one of the largest-yet samples of galaxies. We measure the major and minor merger fraction (f merg ) and build a mass-complete sample of galaxies, which we bin as a function of stellar mass and redshift. For the major mergers, we find a positive slope of fmerg with stellar mass and negative slope of f merg with redshift between stellar masses of 10.5 < M * (log M ⊙ ) < 11.6 and redshifts of 0.03 < z < 0.19. We are able to reproduce an artificial positive slope of the major merger fraction with redshift when we do not bin for mass or craft a complete sample, demonstrating the importance of mass completeness and mass binning. Further, we determine that the positive trend of the major merger fraction with stellar mass is consistent with a hierarchical assembly scenario. The negative trend with redshift requires that an additional assembly mechanism, such as baryonic feedback, dominates in the local Universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Utility of AIRS Retrievals for Climate Studies

Satellites provide an ideal platform to study the Earth-atmosphere system on practically all spatial and temporal scales. Thus, one may expect that their rapidly growing datasets could provide crucial insights not only for short-term weather processes/predictions but into ongoing and future climate change processes as well. Though Earth-observing satellites have been around for decades, extracting climatically reliable information from their widely varying datasets faces rather formidable challenges. AIRS/AMSU is a state of the art infrared/microwave sounding system that was launched on the EOS Aqua platform on May 4, 2002, and has been providing operational quality measurements since September 2002. In addition to temperature and atmospheric constituent profiles, outgoing longwave radiation and basic cloud parameters are also derived from the AIRS/AMSU observations. However, so far the AIRS products have not been rigorously evaluated and/or validated on a large scale. Here we present preliminary assessments of monthly and 8-day mean AIRS "Version 4.0" retrieved products (available to the public through the DAAC at NASA/GSFC) to assess their utility for climate studies. First we present "consistency checks" by evaluating the time series of means, and "anomalies" (relative to the first 4 full years' worth of AIRS "climate statistics") of several climatically important retrieved parameters. Finally, we also present preliminary results regarding interrelationships of some of these geophysical variables, to assess to what extent they are consistent with the known physics of climate variability/change. In particular, we find at least one observed relationship which contradicts current general circulation climate (GCM) model results: the global water vapor climate feedback which is expected to be strongly positive is deduced to be slightly negative (shades of the "Lindzen effect"?). Though the current AIRS climatology covers only -4.5 years, it will hopefully extend much further into the future.

Molnar, Guyla I.↗

Unstructured mesh-based multi-physics reactor transient simulation with iMC code

In this study, we present a time-dependent Monte Carlo simulation result about a complex fuel-loaded light water reactor system with thermal-hydraulic feedback using the KAIST iMC code. The intra-pin temperature distribution is calculated based on Monte Carlo-tallied detailed power distribution and the finite element heat transfer method. The temperature effect of fuel, absorber, and coolant are adequately reflected into the dynamic response by the on-the-fly Doppler broadened cross-section correction. For the time-dependent Monte Carlo transport simulation, the predictor-corrector quasi-static Monte Carlo method is used for this study. We tested the coupled analysis framework with a 17-by-17 fuel assembly loaded with the centrally-shielded burnable absorber (CSBA) fuel element. The temperature feedback effect on the material cross-section and the moderator density incurred negative reactivity in response to the external positive reactivity insertion, showing the inherent stability of the reactor system. The pin-wise power and temperature change during the system transient are presented and discussed. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Positive Low Cloud–Sea Surface Temperature Feedback in the East Asian Marginal Seas during El Niño Mature Winters and Their Following Spring

During the winter and subsequent spring of an El Niño year, the East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) exhibits positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and fewer low clouds, while the western North Pacific experiences negative SSTAs. In this study, we suggest that the positive SSTAs in EAMS are maintained by a positive low cloud–SST feedback. In neutral winters and springs, the EAMS is covered by low clouds, which have a cooling effect on surface temperatures. During an El Niño year, a western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone is established, and along its northwestern flank, there are favorable conditions for convergence of moisture and weaker surface latent heat flux over the EAMS. Once a positive SSTA has been established, a further reduction of turbulent mixing results in less low cloud and enhanced solar heating of the ocean mixed layer; this reinforces and maintains both the positive SSTA and the lack of low cloud via a positive feedback mechanism. Further, the concurrent increase of low cloud–SST feedback and anticyclone circulation strengths is evident in the coupled-model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments, performed with the atmospheric components of Community Earth System Model (CESM2), reveal that a positive SSTA helps to maintain the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. Four pacemaker-coupled experiments by CESM2, with sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific restored to the observational anomalies plus the model climatology and altered low cloud feedback over EAMS, suggest that the low cloud–SST feedback results in more than the maintenance of a positive SSTA over the EAMS: the positive feedback is also a previously overlooked mechanism for the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accuracy and adaptation of reaching and pointing in pitched visual environments

Visually perceived eye level (VPEL) and the ability of subjects to reach with an unseen limb to targets placed at VPEL were measured in a statically pitched visual surround (pitchroom). VPEL was shifted upward and downward by upward and downward room pitch, respectively. Accuracy in reaching to VPEL represented a compromise between VPEL and actual eye level. This indicates that VPEL shifts reflect in part a change in perceived location of objects. When subjects were provided with terminal visual feedback about their reaching, accuracy improved rapidly. Subsequent reaching, with the room vertical, revealed a negative aftereffect (i.e., reaching errors that were opposite those made initially in the pitched room). In a second study, pointing accuracy was assessed for targets located both at VPEL and at other positions. Errors were similar for targets whether located at VPEL or elsewhere. Additionally, pointing responses were restricted to a narrower range than that of the actual target locations. The small size of reaching and pointing errors in both studies suggests that factors other than a change in perceived location are also involved in VPEL shifts.

NASA Center ARC↗

Mycorrhizal feedbacks influence global forest structure and diversity

One mechanism proposed to explain high species diversity in tropical systems is strong negative conspecific density dependence (CDD), which reduces recruitment of juveniles in proximity to conspecific adult plants. Although evidence shows that plant-specific soil pathogens can drive negative CDD, trees also form key mutualisms with mycorrhizal fungi, which may counteract these effects. Across 43 large-scale forest plots worldwide, we tested whether ectomycorrhizal tree species exhibit weaker negative CDD than arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species. We further tested for conmycorrhizal density dependence (CMDD) to test for benefit from shared mutualists. We found that the strength of CDD varies systematically with mycorrhizal type, with ectomycorrhizal tree species exhibiting higher sapling densities with increasing adult densities than arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species. Moreover, we found evidence of positive CMDD for tree species of both mycorrhizal types. Collectively, these findings indicate that mycorrhizal interactions likely play a foundational role in global forest diversity patterns and structure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗