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At least 253 records · Page 14

Assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains in the south-central United States

Given the increasing use of climate projections and multi-model ensemble weighting for a diverse array of applications, this project assesses the sensitivities of climate model weighting strategies and their resulting ensemble means to multiple components, such as the weighting schemes, climate variables, or spatial domains of interest. The purpose of this study is to assess the sensitivities associated with multi-model weighting strategies. The analysis makes use of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and their statistically downscaled counterparts created with the localized constructed analogs (LOCA) method. This work focuses on historical and projected future mean precipitation and daily high temperatures of the south-central United States. Results suggest that the model weights and the corresponding weighted model means can be sensitive to the weighting strategy that is applied. For instance, when estimating model weights based on Louisiana precipitation, the weighted projections show a wetter and cooler south-central domain in the future compared to other weighting strategies. Alternatively, for example, when estimating model weights based on New Mexico temperature, the weighted projections show a drier and warmer south-central domain in the future. However, when considering the entire south-central domain in estimating the model weights, the weighted future projections show a compromise in the precipitation and temperature estimates. As for uncertainty, our matrix of results provided a more certain picture of future climate compared to the spread in the original model ensemble. If future impact assessments utilize weighting strategies, then our findings suggest that how the specific weighting strategy is used with climate projections may depend on the needs of an impact assessment or adaptation plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Near-Term Fuel Screening and Qualification Needs for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Systems

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) is an in-space propulsion technology capable of both high specific impulse (850–1000 s) and thrust (44–1112 kN), which can help reduce trip times for crewed missions beyond low Earth orbit. NTP technology has been demonstrated during historic programs. Over 20 ground test reactor experiments were performed, which demonstrated the prototypic reactor operations, during the Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application (NERVA)/Rover program (1955–1972). Although historical programs have shown that NTP is a viable in-space propulsion technology, developing NTP in modern programs is contingent on the development and qualification of ultrahigh-temperature nuclear fuel technologies that can withstand engine operating conditions. In historical NTP development programs such as NERVA/Rover, prototypic reactor/engine schemes were ground tested to assess the overall system feasibility and to qualify the reactor fuel forms for eventual flight systems. Although this approach is effective to verify fuel performance under prototypic conditions, relying solely on full-scale NTP reactor tests as the pathway for verifying or qualifying fuel is inefficient and cost prohibitive today. Additionally, modern nuclear licensing requirements state that before test reactor approval, reactor components and fuel elements should be qualified via non-nuclear (out-of-pile) and nuclear (in-pile) testing under representative operating conditions. Using this methodology, fuel matures as production scale fabrication methods are established, and as produced fuel performance is demonstrated. Here, this paper provides an overview of historical approaches to NTP fuel performance maturation, including fuel screening and qualification needs, and provides insight for establishing an efficient testing paradigm that can be implemented to rapidly and affordably develop NTP fuel forms for eventual qualification.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Rapid Quality Assessment in Additive Manufacturing: New Procedure Accelerates Build Quality Assessment. White paper

Accelerated growth of the additive manufacturing (AM) industry in recent years is accompanied by a rising need for methods to quickly assess quality at-scale. Current practices for quality inspection include nondestructive test methods and destructive testing of witness coupons, which are artifacts built alongside the actual part. However, these methods can be costly and time-consuming. Recognizing this need, the Additive Manufacturing Center of Excellence (AM CoE) initiated a project led by its partner, Auburn University, to develop rapid testing procedure using asbuilt samples tested in torsion to quantitatively assess build quality. The presented work developed a rapid testing procedure using as-built samples tested in torsion to quantify small variances for assessing build quality.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Methane Integrated Monitoring and Measurement System Design

Methane (CH 4 ), an abundant greenhouse gas, is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). In comparison to CO 2 , CH 4 has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. While technologies to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions are materializing, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Methane is primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction/utilization and is currently monitored via bottom-up (i.e., activity level) or top-down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected, and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this report, we study methane leaks from oil and gas infrastructure using a tiered monitoring approach that combines bottom-up and top-down approaches in an integrated framework. We describe the individual advantages of bottom-up and top-down sensors in both stationary and mobile settings before characterizing how a fully integrated framework can improve predictions and uncertainties of potential leak locations and their emission rates. Further, we study the impact of different atmospheric (wind) conditions on integrated methane monitoring and develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement, thereby shortening detection times and improving monitoring capabilities. Last, we discuss how biogenic flux modeling can be used to improve assessment of background methane concentrations needed to fully assess the sensitivity of a tiered monitoring system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Federal Aviation Administration Vertiport Electrical Infrastructure Study

In this detailed analysis, the authors assess the charging infrastructure needed for the deployment of advanced air mobility involving electrified vertical take-off and landing technologies. The report covers four research areas: (1) Identifying charging infrastructure requirements for existing facilities based on flight operational parameters, potential use cases, charging strategy, and other constraints. (2) Assessing sites on power availability to meet charging demand, the impact on grid infrastructure, potential hazards, and cybersecurity needs, and using technoeconomic analysis to identify opportunities for onsite distributed energy resources, primarily solar photovoltaics and battery energy storage systems. (3) Calculating greenhouse gas emission based on total energy consumption attributable to each site. (4) Analyzing the job and economic development impact for sites adopting new infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing High Burnup U-19Pu-10Zr Fuel Performance against Historical and Modeled Behavior

Advancing the deployment of sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) requires thorough testing of metallic fuel pins under accident conditions to establish safe operational limits of high burnup fuel. To conduct transient testing, a comprehensive understanding of steady-state fuel behavior obtained through both experimental characterization and accurate predictive capabilities is needed. This study comparatively assesses the steady-state irradiation performance of two high burnup U-19Pu-10Zr fuel pins, DP-36 and DP-40, irradiated under prototypic fast reactor conditions in preparation for planned safety testing at the Transient Reactor Test Facility. Since DP-40 was designated for use in the test and DP-36 serves as its sibling pin, non-destructive, engineering-scale post-irradiation examinations (PIE) were conducted on both pins while destructive examinations were performed exclusively on DP-36. The results were then assessed against historical performance data from similar fuel pins irradiated in the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II. Additionally, the steady-state irradiation of each pin was modeled using the BISON fuel performance code to assess the accuracy of current modeling capabilities in predicting the baseline irradiation behavior. Non-destructive examinations included neutron radiography to measure fuel column elongation, gamma scanning to verify pin integrity and fission product migration, and profilometry to assess dimensional changes. Benchmarking against existing PIE data revealed consistent patterns in axial fuel column growth and cladding diametral strain, though both pins exhibited longer low-density “fluff” structures, which can have implications for core reactivity and source term calculations. Destructive examinations on DP-36 included fission gas release analysis and sectioning for optical microscopy, which showed more complex constituent redistribution patterns than the traditionally accepted 3-ring model. The axial evolution of fractional areas and porosities of each of the redistributed zones were quantified and presented. Modeling comparisons showed agreement in fractional fission gas release but consistently overestimated axial and radial swelling and disagreed with measured axial porosity patterns. These conservative overpredictions suggested that the pins would appear closer to failure or operational limits at the start of transient tests, potentially leading to higher strain accumulation during the transient. While conservative estimates provide safety margins, they can negatively impact fuel economics. A review of the swelling models identified areas for improvement in the gaseous swelling, solid swelling, and fuel hot-pressing models when applied to ternary fuel. The results of this study highlight the critical importance of conducting pre-test characterization on both test and sibling pins to accurately capture steady-state fuel behavior, providing a precise baseline for post-test evaluations and essential inputs for transient modeling of the planned experiments. The analysis also revealed significant data gaps that require further investigation to enhance the understanding and prediction of fuel swelling and pore dynamics. Collecting comprehensive data across different irradiation conditions, burnup levels, and fuel compositions are essential for refining existing models and developing mechanistic models for both binary and ternary metallic fuels, ultimately improving the integration of modeling and experimental approaches in accident testing.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The fluid definition of the ‘waters of the United States’: Non-uniform effects of regulation on US wetland protections

Recent revisions to the definition of the ‘waters of the United States’ (WOTUS) have considerably altered how wetlands are federally regulated under the Clean Water Act. The two most recent modifications to WOTUS, the Clean Water Rule (CWR) and the Navigable Waters Protection Rule (NWPR), represent two opposing approaches to the federal wetland policy. The impacts of these two rules on the regulation of wetlands have as of yet been poorly characterized at broad spatial scales. Using New York State (NYS) as a case study, we evaluated the jurisdictional statuses of more than 253 000 wetlands under the CWR and the NWPR to assess the landscape-scale effects of WOTUS re-definitions. Here, we found that statewide and within each of NYS's hydrologic regions, the NWPR protects fewer wetlands and less total wetland area than the CWR. The efficacy of the two regulations varied considerably in space across NYS, highlighting the need for comprehensive, nationwide assessments of wetland policy outcomes. We also observed that both rules produced non-uniform patterns in jurisdiction across a range of landscape positions and wetland sizes, preferentially protecting large wetlands close to the stream network. This effect was particularly pronounced under the NWPR, which excludes all geographically isolated wetlands from protection. Our findings in NYS emphasize the existence of unique patterns in protected wetlands across spatial scales, highlighting the value in applying geospatial analyses to evaluate environmental policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards A Geo-Data Science Method for Assessing Rare Earth Element and Critical Mineral Occurrences in Coal and Other Sedimentary Systems

While preliminary analyses of data from open-source resources (Ekmann, 2012) show promising concentrations of REE in individual coal samples from a number of sites and basins in the U.S., other sparse data for REE in domestic coal-related strata suggest that many occurrences are low, “subeconomic” concentrations. At present, there is no method for systematically assessing potential sedimentary occurrences of REE. However, the geologic processes responsible for REE occurrences in coal-related strata are systematic; the unpredictability of REE resources in coal-related strata is due to poorly quantified spatial resource trends and the lack of an exploration method tailored to these resources. Thus, there exists a need for a systematic assessment approach that incorporates knowledge of geological variation in the mechanisms of REE enrichment within coal basins to help minimize geologic uncertainty and reduce commercial exploration risk.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Reducing the cost of energy estimation in the variational quantum eigensolver algorithm with robust amplitude estimation

Quantum chemistry and materials is one of the most promising applications of quantum computing. Yet much work is still to be done in matching industry-relevant problems in these areas with quantum algorithms that can solve them. Most previous efforts have carried out resource estimations for quantum algorithms run on large-scale fault-tolerant architectures, which include the quantum phase estimation algorithm. In contrast, few have assessed the performance of near-term quantum algorithms, which include the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithm. Recently, a large-scale benchmark study [Gonthier et al. 2020] found evidence that the performance of the variational quantum eigensolver for a set of industry-relevant molecules may be too inefficient to be of practical use. This motivates the need for developing and assessing methods that improve the efficiency of VQE. In this work, we predict the runtime of the energy estimation subroutine of VQE when using robust amplitude estimation (RAE) to estimate Pauli expectation values. Under conservative assumptions, our resource estimation predicts that RAE can reduce the runtime over the standard estimation method in VQE by one to two orders of magnitude. Despite this improvement, we find that the runtimes are still too large to be practical. These findings motivate two complementary efforts towards quantum advantage: 1) the investigation of more efficient near-term methods for ground state energy estimation and 2) the development of problem instances that are of industrial value and classically challenging, but better suited to quantum computation.

Johnson, Peter D.↗

A Power Outage Data Informed Resilience Assessment Framework

Catastrophic impacts to power systems due to disruptive events have increased significantly during the last decade. These events highlight the need to develop approaches to assess the resilience of power systems against extreme events. However, the availability of data that capture power system performance during and after disruptive events is scarce. This paper proposes an assessment framework to evaluate the performance aspects of the grid system during extreme outage events using the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I) data. EAGLE-I includes information related to the number of impacted customers, duration, and location of power outages in the United States. Statistical analyses were conducted to extract resilient-based outage data and derive probability distribution functions of their impact and recovery characteristics. A list of extreme events is identified based on few predetermined threshold values. Metrics from other power outage assessments were used to measure the characteristics of each event, including impact rate and duration, recovery rate and duration, and impact level. A probability distribution function is obtained for each metric. The obtained results provide a representation of national grid performance during extreme events, which can be applied as a framework to evaluate various resilience enhancement techniques.

EAGLE-I↗

Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

Global expansion of hydropower resources has increased in recent years to meet growing energy demands and fill worldwide gaps in electricity supply. However, hydropower induces significant environmental impacts on river ecosystems - impacts that are addressed through environmental impact assessment (EIA) processes. The need for effective EIA processes is increasing as environmental regulations are either stressed in developing countries undertaking rapid expansion of hydropower capacity or time- and resource-intensive in developed countries. Part of the challenge in implementing EIAs lies in reaching a consensus among stakeholders regarding the most important environmental factors as the focus of impact studies. To help address this gap, we developed a weight-of-evidence approach (and toolkit) as a preliminary and coarse assessment of the most relevant impacts of hydropower on primary components of the river ecosystem, as identified using river function indicators. Through a science-based questionnaire and predictive model, users identify which environmental indicators may be impacted during hydropower development as well as those indicators that have the highest levels of uncertainty and require further investigation. Furthermore, an assessment tool visualizes inter-dependent indicator relationships, which help formulate hypotheses about causal relationships explored through environmental studies. We apply these tools to four existing hydropower projects and one hypothetical new hydropower project of varying sizes and environmental contexts. We observed consistencies between the output of our tools and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission licensing process (inclusive of EIAs) but also important differences arising from holistic scientific evaluations (our toolkit) versus regulatory policies. The tools presented herein are aimed at increasing the efficiency of the EIA processes that engender environmental studies without loss of rigor or transparency of rationale necessary for understanding, considering, and mitigating the environmental consequences of hydropower.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing Asset Management in Water Infrastructure Systems

Aging water system infrastructure, including drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater, poses a growing challenge for utilities and municipalities. These water systems have well documented challenges with respect to their age, condition, and level of service. ASCE annual report cards consistently rate these infrastructure systems in the United States as underfunded, overcapacity, or past service life (ASCE 2025 Report Card). For example, Chini and Stillwell (2017) estimated that the mean water loss in drinking water systems, i.e., non-revenue water, is approximately 16% across the United States. These concerns are not just relegated to the United States, with Courtenay, British Columbia, identifying 17% of their water main pipes as in a ‘poor’ condition state, defined as a category condition 5 out of 5 (City of Courtenay, 2024). These cases illustrate the challenges utilities are facing to manage extensive networks of infrastructure to deliver a consistent and high level of service. For buried infrastructure such as water systems, studies suggest that preventative interventions can lead to lower maintenance costs and fewer service disruptions (Mazumder et al, 2018; Li et al, 2014). The demonstrated need and benefit of appropriately applied asset management is juxtaposed against the relatively sparse literature that evaluates water systems within an asset management construct. Since 2020, just 37 papers specifically reference asset management in the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. Of those, only a few specifically look to develop strategies for improved asset management. Therefore, we highlight four key research areas that represent opportunities for advancement of asset management research for water systems. First, advances in condition assessment and forecasting are needed to better estimate asset deterioration using diverse datasets. Second, machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) hold promise for predictive maintenance and investment prioritization, though questions of generalizability and model transparency remain. Third, applying a value of information framework can guide utilities in making cost-effective sensor deployment and data collection decisions, to direct monitoring strategies towards data-informed asset management decisions. Finally, integrated infrastructure management is critical, requiring coordinated planning with other infrastructure systems and stakeholder engagement to reduce costs and enhance service delivery.

Chini, Christopher M.↗

Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide

Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. In this work, we document events of sudden and unexpected elevated tree mortality following heat and drought events in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk of exposure. These events underscore the fact that climate change may affect forests with unexpected force in the future. We use the events as examples to highlight current difficulties and challenges for realistically predicting such tree mortality events and the uncertainties about future forest condition. Advances in remote sensing technology and greater availably of high-resolution data, from both field assessments and satellites, are needed to improve both understanding and prediction of forest responses to future climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

PVDeg: Development of a Streamlined Tool for PV Degradation Modeling

The photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 to 50 years. research efforts aim to achieve this while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades. This puts considerable pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. There is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. The tool will simplify many of the routine computational operations that are common to many degradation studies. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. This repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors.

degradation↗

Life-Cycle and Techno-Economic Assessment of Early-Stage Carbon Capture and Utilization Technologies—A Discussion of Current Challenges and Best Practices

The mitigation of climate change requires research, development, and deployment of new technologies that are not only economically viable but also environmentally benign. Systematic and continuous technology assessment from early technology maturity onwards allows assessment practitioners to identify economic and environmental characteristics. With this information, decision-makers can focus time and resources on the most promising technologies. A broad toolset for technology assessment exists—stretching from the well-established life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to more loosely defined techno-economic analysis (TEA) methods and the increasingly popular principles of technology maturity assessment such as the concept of technology readiness levels (TRL). However, current technology assessment practice faces various challenges at early stages, resulting in a potential mismatch of study results and stakeholders' needs and an escalation of assessment effort. In this practice review, we outline current challenges in the interplay of LCA, TEA, and TRL and present best practices for assessing early-stage climate change mitigation technologies in the field of carbon capture and utilization (CCU). The findings help practitioners systematically identify the TRL of a technology and adapt technology assessment methodologies accordingly. We highlight the methodological challenges for practitioners when adapting the goal and scope, identifying benchmark technologies, creating a comprehensive inventory, comparing early stage to commercial stage, ensuring clarity of recommendations for decision-making under high uncertainty, and streamlining conventional LCA and TEA assessment approaches and provide actionable recommendations. Overall, this work contributes to identifying promising technologies faster and more systematically, accelerating the development of new technologies for climate change mitigation and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of ethanol produced via fermentation of sugars derived from shrub willow (Salix ssp.) hot water extraction in the Northeast United States

Abstract Background The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been on the rise for more than a century. Bioenergy crops are seen by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as an essential part of the solution to addressing climate change. To understand the potential impact of shrub willow ( Salix spp . ) crop in the northeast United States, effective and transparent life cycle assessment of these systems needs to occur. Results Here we show, ethanol produced from the fermentation of sugars from hot water extract of willow grown on cropland can sequester 0.012 ± 0.003 kg CO 2eq MJ −1 for a supply system incorporating summer harvest and storage. Despite decreases in soil organic carbon when willow is instead grown on grassland, the produced fuel still can provide significant climate benefits compared to gasoline. Conclusions Shrub willow converted to ethanol can be a carbon negative source of transportation fuel when the electricity and heat required for the conversion process are generated from renewable biomass. The sequestration of carbon in the belowground portion of the plants is essential for the negative GHG balance for cropland and low GHG emissions in grassland.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Domestic Supply Chain of Medical Consumables Needed During COVID-19 Pandemic

This report is an assessment of the availability, demand, and production capability of medical consumables needed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus here on the ability of the supply chain to increase production to meet demand during peak pandemic conditions. In addition, we report on domestic production efforts and supply chain issues, as well as the propensity of other countries to limit export of needed medical supplies to the United States. In brief, the domestic supply chain and production capability vary greatly depending on the consumable. Some consumables, such as N95 masks or face shields, can likely be nearly fully supplied by domestic production, while other consumables, such as gloves or surgical masks, have little domestic production and thus will depend on imports to meet demand. The assessment pulls primarily from published news sources and company press releases. As such, the demand and production numbers are not precisely known, and some degree of uncertainty exists in them. The total production capability is also often difficult to ascertain from these reports especially as other industries have begun to supplement existing supply chains. In addition, local conditions (including company financial decisions, local public health issues, and political aspects) can vary throughout the pandemic which will affect future production. The report also pulls from estimates of demand and domestic production of some consumables compiled by the White House COVID-19 Supply Chain Taskforce (SCTF) presented by Rear Admiral John Polowczyk before a June 9, 2020 hearing of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. These numbers, where applicable, are likely to be more accurate than those found in public news sources since they are more directly tied to private companies’ actual orders and actual production estimates, as opposed to publicly released estimates. Finally, we note that other issues with the supply chain, including the production of raw materials, increase demand due to industries that have not previously used PPE now using it, and increased domestic production from non-traditional suppliers, make complete picture of a rapidly changing supply chain difficult to obtain. This report attempts to produce an accurate image of the supply and estimated demand, as understood by the authors who are not experts in the medical supply chain.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Phylogenetic structure of specialization: A new approach that integrates partner availability and phylogenetic diversity to quantify biotic specialization in ecological networks

Abstract Biotic specialization holds information about the assembly, evolution, and stability of biological communities. Partner availabilities can play an important role in enabling species interactions, where uneven partner availabilities can bias estimates of biotic specialization when using phylogenetic diversity indices. It is therefore important to account for partner availability when characterizing biotic specialization using phylogenies. We developed an index, phylogenetic structure of specialization (PSS), that avoids bias from uneven partner availabilities by uncoupling the null models for interaction frequency and phylogenetic distance. We incorporate the deviation between observed and random interaction frequencies as weights into the calculation of partner phylogenetic α‐diversity. To calculate the PSS index, we then compare observed partner phylogenetic α‐diversity to a null distribution generated by randomizing phylogenetic distances among the same number of partners. PSS quantifies the phylogenetic structure (i.e., clustered, overdispersed, or random) of the partners of a focal species. We show with simulations that the PSS index is not correlated with network properties, which allows comparisons across multiple systems. We also implemented PSS on empirical networks of host–parasite, avian seed‐dispersal, lichenized fungi–cyanobacteria, and hummingbird pollination interactions. Across these systems, a large proportion of taxa interact with phylogenetically random partners according to PSS, sometimes to a larger extent than detected with an existing method that does not account for partner availability. We also found that many taxa interact with phylogenetically clustered partners, while taxa with overdispersed partners were rare. We argue that species with phylogenetically overdispersed partners have often been misinterpreted as generalists when they should be considered specialists. Our results highlight the important role of randomness in shaping interaction networks, even in highly intimate symbioses, and provide a much‐needed quantitative framework to assess the role that evolutionary history and symbiotic specialization play in shaping patterns of biodiversity. PSS is available as an R package at https://github.com/cjpardodelahoz/pss .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗