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DOE OSTI2015

Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning. Scenario Case Studies using the Resource Planning Model

We examine how model investment decisions change under different model configurations and assumptions related to renewable capacity credit, the inclusion or exclusion of operating reserves, dispatch period sampling, transmission power flow modeling, renewable spur line costs, and the ability of a planning region to import and export power. For all modeled scenarios, we find that under market conditions where new renewable deployment is predominantly driven by renewable portfolio standards, model representations of wind and solar capacity credit and interactions between balancing areas are most influential in avoiding model investments in excess thermal capacity. We also compare computation time between configurations to evaluate tradeoffs between computational burden and model accuracy. From this analysis, we find that certain advanced dispatch representations (e.g., DC optimal power flow) can have dramatic adverse effects on computation time but can be largely inconsequential to model investment outcomes, at least at the renewable penetration levels modeled. Finally, we find that certain underappreciated aspects of new capacity investment decisions and model representations thereof, such as spur lines for new renewable capacity, can influence model outcomes particularly in the renewable technology and location chosen by the model. Though this analysis is not comprehensive and results are specific to the model region, input assumptions, and optimization-modeling framework employed, the findings are intended to provide a guide for model improvement opportunities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

An integrated two-dimensional modeling method for predicting ductility of thin-walled die cast magnesium

In this paper, a two-dimensional (2D) microstructure-based modeling method is developed in order to predict the ductility of a thin-walled high pressure die cast magnesium (Mg) by considering the three-dimensional (3D) thru-thickness pore distributions. For this purpose, a series of 3D synthetic microstructure-based finite element models and the corresponding 2D models are first generated with various pore volume fractions, pore size distributions and pore shapes. The input material properties for the 2D models are determined based on the 3D cubic model with a spherical pore and the generalized Neuber’s rule. Based on the resulting ductility of the 3D and 2D models, a 3D/2D ductility correlation curve is developed as a function of the characteristics/shape of the input fracture strain curve used in the 3D model. The validity of the ductility correlation curve is examined with casting samples with actual microstructures. Here, the results show that the suggested 2D modeling methodology can be used together with the ductility correlation curve in predicting the ductility of thin-walled Mg castings.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Grain-Size Based Additivity Models for Scaling Multi-rate Uranyl Surface Complexation in Subsurface Sediments

This study statistically analyzed a grain-size based additivity model that has been proposed to scale reaction rates and parameters from laboratory to field. The additivity model assumed that reaction properties in a sediment including surface area, reactive site concentration, reaction rate, and extent can be predicted from field-scale grain size distribution by linearly adding reaction properties for individual grain size fractions. This study focused on the statistical analysis of the additivity model with respect to reaction rate constants using multi-rate uranyl (U(VI)) surface complexation reactions in a contaminated sediment as an example. Experimental data of rate-limited U(VI) desorption in a stirred flow-cell reactor were used to estimate the statistical properties of multi-rate parameters for individual grain size fractions. The statistical properties of the rate constants for the individual grain size fractions were then used to analyze the statistical properties of the additivity model to predict rate-limited U(VI) desorption in the composite sediment, and to evaluate the relative importance of individual grain size fractions to the overall U(VI) desorption. The result indicated that the additivity model provided a good prediction of the U(VI) desorption in the composite sediment. However, the rate constants were not directly scalable using the additivity model, and U(VI) desorption in individual grain size fractions have to be simulated in order to apply the additivity model. An approximate additivity model for directly scaling rate constants was subsequently proposed and evaluated. The result found that the approximate model provided a good prediction of the experimental results within statistical uncertainty. This study also found that a gravel size fraction (2-8mm), which is often ignored in modeling U(VI) sorption and desorption, is statistically significant to the U(VI) desorption in the sediment.

Zhang, Xiaoying↗

DOE OSTI2018

Merging a mechanistic enzymatic model of soil heterotrophic respiration into an ecosystem model in two AmeriFlux sites of northeastern USA

Heterotrophic respiration (Rh), microbial processing of soil organic matter to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), is a major, yet highly uncertain, carbon (C) flux from terrestrial systems to the atmosphere. Temperature sensitivity of Rh is often represented with a simple Q 10 function in ecosystem models and earth system models (ESMs), sometimes accompanied by an empirical soil moisture modifier. More explicit representation of the effects of soil moisture, substrate supply, and their interactions with temperature has been proposed as a way to disentangle the confounding factors of apparent temperature sensitivity of Rh and improve the performance of ecosystem models and ESMs. The objective of this work was to insert into an ecosystem model a more mechanistic, but still parsimonious, model of environmental factors controlling Rh and evaluate the model performance in terms of soil and ecosystem respiration. The Dual Arrhenius and Michaelis-Menten (DAMM) model simulates Rh using Michaelis-Menten, Arrhenius, and diffusion functions. Soil moisture affects Rh and its apparent temperature sensitivity in DAMM by regulating the diffusion of oxygen, soluble C substrates, and extracellular enzymes to the enzymatic reaction site. Here, we merged the DAMM soil flux model with a parsimonious ecosystem flux model, FöBAAR (Forest Biomass, Assimilation, Allocation and Respiration). We used high-frequency soil flux data from automated soil chambers and landscape-scale ecosystem fluxes from eddy covariance towers at two AmeriFlux sites (Harvard Forest, MA and Howland Forest, ME) in the northeastern USA to estimate parameters, validate the merged model, and to quantify the uncertainties in a multiple constraints approach. The optimized DAMM-FöBAAR model better captured the seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of soil respiration (Soil R) compared to the FöBAAR-only model for the Harvard Forest, where higher frequency and duration of drying events significantly regulate substrate supply to heterotrophs. However, DAMM-FöBAAR showed improvement over FöBAAR-only at the boreal transition Howland Forest only in unusually dry years. The frequency of synoptic-scale dry periods is lower at Howland, resulting in only brief water limitation of Rh in some years. At both sites, the declining trend of soil R during drying events was captured by the DAMM-FöBAAR model; however, model performance was also contingent on site conditions, climate, and the temporal scale of interest. While the DAMM functions require a few more parameters than a simple Q10 function, we have demonstrated that they can be included in an ecosystem model and reduce the model-data mismatch. Moreover, the mechanistic structure of the soil moisture effects using DAMM functions should be more generalizable than the wide variety of empirical functions that are commonly used, and these DAMM functions could be readily incorporated into other ecosystem models and ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Subtropical marine low stratiform cloud deck spatial errors in the E3SMv1 Atmosphere Model

Marine low-level clouds continue to be poorly simulated in models despite many studies and field experiments devoted to their improvement. Here we focus on the spatial errors in the cloud decks in the Department of Energy Earth system model (E3SM) relative to the satellite climatology by calculating centroid distances, area ratios, and overlap ratios. Since model dynamics is better simulated than clouds, these errors are attributed primarily to the model physics. To gain additional insight, we performed a sensitivity run in which model winds were nudged to those of reanalysis. This results in a large change (but not necessarily an improvement) in the simulated cloud decks. These differences between simulations are mainly due to the interactions between model dynamics and physics. These results suggest that both model physics (widely recognized) and its interaction with dynamics (less recognized) are important to model improvement in simulating these low-level clouds.

Brunke, Michael A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Current data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces in the Λ CDM cosmological model but favor more lensing than the model predicts

Here, we study the performance of three pairs of tilted, and a pair of untilited, ΛCDM cosmological models, with three of these four pairs allowing for non-flat spatial hypersurfaces, against cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectrum data (P18), measurements of the Planck 2018 lensing potential power spectrum (lensing), and a large compilation of non-CMB data (non-CMB). For the eight models, we measure cosmological parameters and study whether or not pairs of the data sets (as well as subsets of them) are mutually consistent in these models. Half of these models allow the lensing consistency parameter A L , which re-scales the gravitational potential power spectrum, to be an additional free parameter to be determined from data, while the other three have A L = 1 which is the theoretically expected value. The pair of untilted non-flat ΛCDM models are incompatible with P18 data. The tilted spatially-flat models assume the usual primordial spatial inhomogeneity power spectrum that is a power law in wave number. The tilted non-flat models assume either the primordial power spectrum used in the Planck group anal yses [Planck P(q)], that has recently been numerically shown to be a good approximation to what is quantum-mechanically generated from a particular choice of closed inflation model initial conditions, or a recently computed power spectrum [new P(q)] that quantum-mechanically follows from a different set of non-flat inflation model initial conditions. In the tilted non-flat models with A L = 1 we find differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological parameter constraints, which are large enough to rule out the Planck P(q) model at 3σ but not the new P(q) model. No significant differences are found when cosmological parameter constraints obtained with two different data sets are compared within the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. While both P18 data and non-CMB data separately favor a closed geometry, with spatial curvature density parameter Ω k < 0, when P18+non-CMB data are jointly analyzed the evidence in favor of non-flat hypersurfaces subsides. Differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological constraints subside when A L is allowed to vary. From the most restrictive P18+lensing+non-CMB data combination we get almost model-independent constraints on the cosmological parameters and find that the A L > 1 option is preferred over the Ω k < 0 one, with the A L parameter, for all models, being larger than unity by ~ 2.5σ. According to the deviance information criterion, in the P18+lensing+non-CMB analysis, the varying A L option is on the verge of being strongly favored over the A L = 1 one, which could indicate a problem for the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. These data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces but more and better data could improve the constraints on Ω k and might alter this conclusion. Error bars on some cosmological parameters are significantly reduced when non-CMB data are used jointly with P18+lensing data. For example, in the tilted flat ΛCDM model for P18+lensing+non-CMB data the Hubble constant H 0 = 68.09 ± 0.38 km s -1 Mpc -1 , which is consistent with that from a median statistics analysis of a large compilation of H 0 measurements as well as with a number of local measurements of the cosmological expansion rate. This H 0 error bar is 31% smaller than that from P18+lensing data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Many but not all deep neural network audio models capture brain responses and exhibit correspondence between model stages and brain regions

Models that predict brain responses to stimuli provide one measure of understanding of a sensory system and have many potential applications in science and engineering. Deep artificial neural networks have emerged as the leading such predictive models of the visual system but are less explored in audition. Prior work provided examples of audio-trained neural networks that produced good predictions of auditory cortical fMRI responses and exhibited correspondence between model stages and brain regions, but left it unclear whether these results generalize to other neural network models and, thus, how to further improve models in this domain. We evaluated model-brain correspondence for publicly available audio neural network models along with in-house models trained on 4 different tasks. Most tested models outpredicted standard spectromporal filter-bank models of auditory cortex and exhibited systematic model-brain correspondence: Middle stages best predicted primary auditory cortex, while deep stages best predicted non-primary cortex. However, some state-of-the-art models produced substantially worse brain predictions. Models trained to recognize speech in background noise produced better brain predictions than models trained to recognize speech in quiet, potentially because hearing in noise imposes constraints on biological auditory representations. The training task influenced the prediction quality for specific cortical tuning properties, with best overall predictions resulting from models trained on multiple tasks. The results generally support the promise of deep neural networks as models of audition, though they also indicate that current models do not explain auditory cortical responses in their entirety.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of Explainable, Knowledge-Guided AI Models to Enhance the E3SM Land Model Development and Uncertainty Quantification

Focal Area(s): (2)Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models. (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge- guided AI. Science Challenge: The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a fully coupled, state-of-the-science Earth system model that uses code optimized for DOE's advanced computers to address the most critical scientific questions facing our nation and society (Golaz et al., 2019). The E3SM Land model (ELM) is designed to understand how the changes in terrestrial land surfaces will interact with other Earth system components and has been used to understand hydrologic cycles, biogeophysics, and ecosystem dynamics. In spite of great successes, the ELM has several known issues that restrain rapid improvements. For example, the ELM uses equilibrium models to simulate dynamic land-climate interactions and it requires long model spin-up time to identify suitable initial conditions for transient simulations. The ELM lacks built-in uncertainty mechanisms that can improve the robustness of model predictions. The ELM is a holistic, deterministic model system with a rigid design, and in many situations, it is hard to modify the ELM system to incorporate new theory/hypothesis and new data across scales to address emerging science problems (such as predicting the impacts of water cycle extremes). In addition, The ELM is technically optimized for traditional CPU-centric computers and it cannot fully utilize the current and incoming leadership computers for model simulations and uncertainty quantification (UQ). The success of artificial intelligence (AI) has inspired scientists to use AI models to discover intrinsic features from simulation data (Chattopadhyay et al., 2020) and observational data (Reichstein et al., 2019) to gain further process understanding of Earth science problems. However, autonomous AI model training through deep learning usually requires a huge amount of annotated data. To overcome the limitations from the data and computing resources, knowledge-guided AI models are necessary where human-knowledge is ingested in model construction (Banino et al., 2018) and training process (Silver et al., 2016) for efficient learning. Herein, we present a new way that leverages the process understanding from the ELM to guide AI model development for the ELM enhancement and UQ. We hope this study can inspire further Earth and environmental system model developments and transformations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Assessing Alignment Between a Top-Down LCA Model and a Bottom-Up Supply Chain Model for Data Gap Identification and Prioritization

This work presents a method for evaluating the alignment between the results of bottom-up and top-down models and using the evaluation to enhance the bottom-up model and underlying data set. Disaggregation is used to enhance the embodied energy results of top-down models, which are then compared to bottom-up model results. Using the disaggregated top-down results makes it possible to identify specific data gaps and deficiencies within the bottom-up model and its data set. The top-down results will also provide information around which data gaps in the bottom-up model are contributing the most error to the results; in this way, data gaps can be identified as either critical or non-critical, and the effort needed to acquire and add data can be prioritized. Although the proposed method could be applied to any physical quantity or environmental impact that can be quantified with both bottom-up models (typically in physical units) and top-down models (typically in monetary units), embodied energy is the focus of this work. The disaggregated energy baseline is calculated from the throughput vector x, which gives the total economic activity required from each sector to provide a final demand. Using the direct requirements matrix, each element in x is disaggregated into a vector of inputs to the corresponding sector. Energy data from the interventions matrix B is then used to convert the monetary flows of the disaggregated x into physical energy flows. For each energy flow, the origin sector, the destination sector, and the energy carrier type will all be known. These energetic flows are analogous but not identical to direct energy inputs that would appear in a unit process used in life cycle analysis and other bottom-up methods, and thus can be used to evaluate the alignment between the top-down results and the results of a bottom-up model. To demonstrate and further develop the proposed method, embodied energy for chemicals assessed in the 2015 U.S. DOE bandwidth study on energy use within the chemical sector will be calculated using a top-down and a bottom-up model. The Materials Flows through Industry (MFI) modeling tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory is used as the bottom-up model, and the U.S. EEIO model, recently published by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, is used as the top-down model. U.S. EEIO and MFI results will be evaluated to determine how well the model results align. Where the two models are not in good alignment, the disaggregation method described above will be applied to the top-down model to generate a more detailed set of results that will aid in identifying data gaps in the MFI database. Using only MFI, data gaps can be identified in terms of which sectors have few or no unit processes in the database, but no information is available regarding the impact of the missing data on MFI results. The disaggregated top-down results will provide this information on which gaps in the MFI data are critical and have a significant impact on the results, and which are less important.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learning: Machine-learning-based error model for surrogates of dynamical systems

A machine learning–based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (eg, random forests, and LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed “error indicators” (ie, features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed by simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering) and subsequently constructs a “local” regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider 2 uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (eg, time-integrated errors). We then apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil-water subsurface flow simulations, with time-varying well-control (bottom-hole pressure) parameters. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization in conjunction with proper orthogonal decomposition. Moreover, when the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well-averaged errors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparison and multi-model inference of excess risks models for radiation-related solid cancer

In assessments of detrimental health risks from exposures to ionising radiation, many forms of risk to dose–response models are available in the literature. The usual practice is to base risk assessment on one specific model and ignore model uncertainty. The analysis illustrated here considers model uncertainty for the outcome all solid cancer incidence, when modelled as a function of colon organ dose, using the most recent publicly available data from the Life Span Study on atomic bomb survivors of Japan. Seven recent publications reporting all solid cancer risk models currently deemed plausible by the scientific community have been included in a model averaging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model. The models have been estimated with different baselines and presented for males and females at various attained ages and ages at exposure, to obtain specially computed model-averaged Excess Relative Risks (ERR) and Excess Absolute Risks (EAR). Monte Carlo simulated estimation of uncertainty on excess risks was accounted for by applying realisations including correlations in the risk model parameters. Three models were found to weight the model-averaged risks most strongly depending on the baseline and information criteria used for the weighting. Fitting all excess risk models with the same baseline, one model dominates for both information criteria considered in this study. Based on the analysis presented here, it is generally recommended to take model uncertainty into account in future risk analyses.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2020

The ongoing need for high-resolution regional climate models: Process understanding and stakeholder information

Regional climate modeling addresses our need to understand and simulate climatic processes and phenomena unresolved in global models. High resolution models are generally more skillful in simulating extremes, such as heavy precipitation, strong winds, and severe storms. In addition, research has shown that fine-scale features such as mountains, coastlines, lakes, irrigation, land use, and urban heat islands can substantially influence a region’s climate and its response to changing forcings. Regional climate simulations explicitly simulating convection are now being performed, providing an opportunity to illuminate new physical behavior that previously was represented by parameterizations with large uncertainties. Regional and global models are both advancing toward higher resolution, as computational capacity increases. However, the resolution and ensemble size necessary to produce a sufficient statistical sample of these processes in global models has proven too costly for contemporary supercomputing systems. Regional climate models are thus indispensable tools that complement global models for understanding regional climate variability and change, and are critical for supporting societal responses to changing climate.

Gutowski, William↗

DOE OSTI2019

Comparison of Wind Farm Layout Optimization Results Using a Simple Wake Model and Gradient-Based Optimization to Large-Eddy Simulations: Preprint

Comparison of wind farm layout optimization results with simulations or wind tunnel tests is important because the models used during optimization use simplifying assumptions that can alter the design space. Some of the characteristics of the simple models may negatively influence the resulting layouts. In this paper we perform wind farm layout optimization and compare the resulting improvements to large eddy simulation (LES) results. We begin by describing the models used, including changes specific for use with gradient-based optimization. We then compare our version of the models with the original versions and large eddy simulation LES) data from previous publications. Using the models described, we performed gradient-based wind farm layout optimization, using exact gradients, and compare the results to LES simulations. The models predicted an improvement in annual energy production (AEP) of 7.4%, while the LES reported an AEP improvement of 9:9%. We conclude that the improvements found by optimizing with the simple models are not just an artifact of the models, but are real improvements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2022

Model Evaluation of Short-Lived Climate Forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: A Multi-Species, Multi-Model Study

While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008-2009 and 2014-2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, 03, BC, and SO(sup 2-)(sub 4)), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for C"4 and greatest for OA. For most SLCFs, model biases skewed from positive to negative with increasing latitude. Our analysis suggests that vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfires remain highly uncertain processes. These processes need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. As model development proceeds in these areas, we highly recommend that the vertical and 3-D distribution of SLCFs be evaluated, as that information is critical to improving the uncertain processes in models.

Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improving E3SM Land Model Photosynthesis Parameterization via Satellite SIF, Machine Learning, and Surrogate Modeling

The parameterization of key photosynthesis parameters is one of the key uncertain sources in modeling ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offers a good proxy for GPP since it marks the actual process of photosynthesis; while machine learning (ML) provides a robust approach to model the GPP-SIF relationship. Here, we trained the boosted regressing tree (BRT) and the Random Forest ML models with Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite SIF data and in situ GPP observations from 49 eddy covariance towers. These trained ML GPP-SIF models were fed into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) to generate ELM-simulated global SIF estimates, which were then benchmarked against satellite SIF observations with a surrogate modeling approach. Our results indicated good modeling performance of the ML-based GPP-SIF relationship. The ELM model when fed with the ML GPP-SIF models also can well predict the spatial-temporal variations in SIF. We also found high model accuracy for the surrogate modeling. Model parameter sensitivity analysis suggested that the fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (flnr) is the most sensitive parameter to the SIF; other sensitive parameters include the Ball-Berry stomatal conductance slope (mbbopt) and the vcmax entropy (vcmaxse). The posterior uncertainty in simulated GPP was greatly reduced after benchmarking, and the model produced improved spatial patterns of mean GPP relative to FLUXCOM GPP. Our integrated approach provides a new avenue for improving land models and using remote-sensing SIF, which can be further improved in the future with more ground- and satellite-based observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Lessons from Climate Modeling on the Design and Use of Ensembles for Crop Modeling

Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.

Model ensembles↗

DOE OSTI2019

Including operational aspects in the planning of power systems with large amounts of variable generation: A review of modeling approaches

In the past, power system planning was based on meeting the load duration curve at minimum cost. The increasing share of variable generation (VG) makes operational constraints more important in the planning problem, and there is more and more interest in considering aspects such as sufficient ramping capability, sufficient reserve procurement, power system stability, storage behavior, and the integration of other energy sectors often through demand response assets. In VG integration studies, several methods have been applied to combine the planning and operational timescales. We present a four-level categorization for the modeling methods, in order of increasing complexity: (1a) investment model only, (1b) operational model only, (2) unidirectionally soft-linked investment and operational models, (3a) bidirectionally soft-linked investment and operational models, (3b) operational model with an investment update algorithm, and (4) co-optimization of investments and operation. The review shows that using a low temporal resolution or only few representative days will not suffice in order to determine the optimal generation portfolio. In addition, considering operational effects proves to be important in order to get a more optimal generation portfolio and more realistic estimations of system costs. However, operational details appear to be less significant than the temporal representation. Furthermore, the benefits and impacts of more advanced modeling techniques on the resulting generation capacity mix significantly depend on the system properties. Thus, the choice of the model should depend on the purpose of the study as well as on system characteristics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calibrating hypersonic turbulence flow models with the HIFiRE-1 experiment using data-driven machine-learned models.

In this paper we study the efficacy of combining machine-learning methods with projection-based model reduction techniques for creating data-driven surrogate models of computationally expensive, high-fidelity physics models. Such surrogate models are essential for many-query applications e.g., engineering design optimization and parameter estimation, where it is necessary to invoke the high-fidelity model sequentially, many times. Surrogate models are usually constructed for individual scalar quantities. However there are scenarios where a spatially varying field needs to be modeled as a function of the model’s input parameters. Here we develop a method to do so, using projections to represent spatial variability while a machine-learned model captures the dependence of the model’s response on the inputs. The method is demonstrated on modeling the heat flux and pressure on the surface of the HIFiRE-1 geometry in a Mach 7.16 turbulent flow. The surrogate model is then used to perform Bayesian estimation of freestream conditions and parameters of the SST (Shear Stress Transport) turbulence model embedded in the high-fidelity (Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes) flow simulator, using shock-tunnel data. The paper provides the first-ever Bayesian calibration of a turbulence model for complex hypersonic turbulent flows. We find that the primary issues in estimating the SST model parameters are the limited information content of the heat flux and pressure measurements and the large model-form error encountered in a certain part of the flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗