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DOE OSTI2025

Establishing model credibility for process-microstructure-property relationships in additive manufacturing using exascale computing

Additive Manufacturing (AM) of alloys holds significant promise as a disruptive technology in various industries, yet its adoption is often hindered by challenges in achieving consistent part quality. These issues are primarily due to the complex process-microstructure-property (PSP) relationships inherent to AM. Computational models can greatly aid in understanding these relationships, but their widespread impact and adoption has been limited by a lack of validated, open-source, and computationally efficient PSP modeling frameworks and hardware limitations. Here, this study leverages the ExaAM software suite and data from the AMBench-2018 series of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) benchmark experiments to perform a comprehensive model assessment, including verification, validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. The RADICAL-EnTK workflow manager was used to perform an ensemble of heat transport, solidification, and mechanical response simulations on the exascale computer Frontier, considering uncertainties in critical model inputs such as laser spot size and nucleation parameters, and consisting of 125 explicit grain structure simulations and 7875 crystal plasticity simulations. For a selected location within the Inconel 625 AMBench-2018 test artifact, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification were performed using the predicted distributions of grain structure and mechanical properties. Qualitative agreement was found between the predicted grain size and texture and the observed AMBench-2018 microstructure, the mean predicted yield stress was within 5% of the experimental measurement mean, and the mean predicted engineering stress at 5% strain was within 10% of the experimental measurement mean. The insights gained from development and validation of the ExaAM PSP modeling framework will help guide future directions for enhancing the credibility and reliability of PSP models in AM, thereby accelerating the adoption of AM technologies in various industries.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quasilinear modelling of collisional trapped electron modes

The simplification of collision operators is necessary for quasilinear turbulence modelling used with integrated modelling frameworks, such as the gyrokinetic code QuaLiKiz. The treatment of collisions greatly impacts the accuracy of trapped electron mode (TEM) modelling, which is necessary to predict the electron heat flux and the balance between inward and outward particle fluxes. In particular, accurate particle flux predictions are necessary to successfully model density peaking in the tokamak core. We explored two ways of improving collisional TEM model reduction for tokamak core plasmas. First, we carried out linear GENE simulations to study the complex interplay between collisions and trapped electrons. We then used these simulations to define an effective trapped fraction to characterize the collisional TEM based on two key parameters, the local inverse-aspect ratio $\epsilon$ and the collisionality $\nu ^\ast$. One aspect missing from analytical TEM research is that the collisional frequency and the bounce-transit frequency are both velocity dependent; this effective trapped fraction takes both into account. In doing so, we determined that two parameters are not enough to model the collisional TEM, as an additional third free parameter was necessary. We determined that this model, as currently formulated, is not suitable for integrated modelling purposes. Second, we directly improved QuaLiKiz's Krook operator, which relies on two free parameters. We determined that these parameters required adjustments against higher-fidelity collisional models. In order to improve density profile predictions when paired with integrated models, we refined the Krook operator by using GENE simulations as a higher-fidelity point of comparison. We then demonstrate strong improvement of density peaking predictions of QuaLiKiz within the integrated modelling framework JETTO.

fusion plasma↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Silicon Steel Strip by Single-Step Shear Deformation Processing

It is well known that Fe-Si alloys with Si content higher than in conventional electrical sheet steels (>3.2% Si) can make a significant impact in improving the efficiency of electrical motors if they are available in sheet/foil (strip) forms at suitable cost. While the magnetic and electrical attributes (e.g., resistivity, core loss) of these high-Si Fe alloys, of relevance to electrical motor core laminations, are known to be exceptional, the alloys have limited workability, making them difficult to produce consistently in sheet/foil (strip) forms. Current processing techniques such as rolling, while adequate for producing conventional electrical steel sheet, do have important disadvantages - large energy consumption and emissions, limitations in processing of low-workability alloys (e.g., high-Si content steels), large-scale plant infrastructure, and less than adequate capability to engineer sheet metals with specific microstructures (e.g., fine-grained) and crystallographic textures (e.g., shear textures). It is therefore of interest to have an alternative commercial process that can produce sheet/foil (strip) from high-Si Fe alloys and which can also overcome some of the deficiencies of current multistage strip processes. The goal of the present project was design and demonstration of a new energy-efficient pilot process for producing high-Si electrical steel strip of commercial widths and thickness, and with superior electrical and magnetic properties than current electrical steels (Fe-3.2% Si as benchmark). The applications domain for these steels is electrical motor core laminations. We have addressed this goal by accomplishment of the following specific objectives and tasks: a) Development of an Fe-4Si-4Cr alloy with electrical resistivity >80 μΩ-cm, induction flux density >1.48 T at 5000 A/m and core loss 35% lower than the benchmark 3.2% Si alloy. The alloy which meets DOE target specifications for motor core attributes was designed with the Si content controlled for the electrical properties and the Cr content tailored to meet material/process workability requirements. b) A unique machining-based deformation processing system was designed and scaled-up to produce strip of commercial width (25 mm to 150 mm) and thickness (up to 0.5 mm) from the Fe-4Si-4Cr alloy and other alloys of varied workability including copper, Al6061-T6 and naval brass. The key attributes of the machining-based strip production are deformation processing by concentrated simple-shear; single-step production of strip from ingot using compact machine infrastructure; strip surface finish of Ra 0.35 to 1 micrometer that is comparable/superior to that of rolled strip; discrete production of strip that can potentially be done at point of use; and controllability of strip mechanical/formability properties by deformation control. c) The electrical, magnetic, surface quality, mechanical, formability, and metallurgical properties/attributes of the machining-based strip were established by direct ASTM standard or equivalent measurement techniques. d) Punching characteristics of the strip in terms of load, edge quality and macro defects were similar to those of conventional 3.2% Si electrical steels. These punching characteristics are critical from a manufacturability perspective for motor/transformer core applications. e) A modeling framework for energy analysis of multistage rolling and the machining-based deformation processing has been established. Application of this modeling to the two strip-processes showed that the machining-based process requires significantly lower specific energy for processing, ~ 25% of that for rolling. The modeling framework can be adapted for a range of sheet-metal forming, bulk metal forming, and machining processes. It can be used to identify key parameters controlling process specific energy. f) A comparative analysis of advantages and disadvantages of machining-based processing against rolling for strip production. The single stage machining-based processing, with compact infrastructure, represents a new manufacturing paradigm for sheet and foil manufacturing that can potentially also be applied to advanced titanium, aluminum, copper and magnesium alloys. The goals and objectives were accomplished by a cross-disciplinary project team comprising of personnel from Purdue University; M4 Sciences LLC, a small-business focused on advanced manufacturing technology development; the Pacific Northwest National Labs; and tool manufacturers. The team is currently in advanced discussions with multiple entities for future process development for commercialization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Feasibility of a Novel Density Functional Method Outside the Kohn-Sham Framework for Modeling Global Potential Energy Surfaces of Molecular Chemical Reactions (Final Technical Report)

The project aimed towards the construction of computational methods capable of modeling the global potential energy surface (PES) of small molecules, molecular ions, and radicals — including the parts of the PES which correspond to chemical reactions, and the reaction paths connecting reactants, intermediates, and reaction products. This goal may seem humble at first glance, but for chemical systems with more than about six atoms in total, at the time the project was proposed, there were no established theoretical methods capable of simulating such systems reliably, not even for small molecules in the gas phase which are electronically benign. This restriction severely hampers our ability to model and control chemical processes under harsh conditions. With the goal of constructing a method capable of modeling such chemical systems, we proposed to pursue a novel approach towards a Multi-Configuration (MC) DFT outside the traditional frameworks of Kohn-Sham theory and other methods of coupling wave function theory with DFT. Rather than being a complete active space (CAS) method, the proposed DOCI-DFT would employ a special restricted form of the active space wave function, called Doubly-Occupied CI (DOCI)—this wave function form is sufficient to describe not only heterolytic, but also homolytic bond dissociation processes at the zeroth order (i.e., as active space wave function). There are no other standard mean field methods which can do so. In the original proposal, we also outlined strong formal and practical arguments speaking for this method. The project proposal was accepted by the Department of Energy and provided two years of seed funding for one graduate student, as well as two years of two weeks PI summer-salary for the PI. However, ultimately the project could not be effectively pursued due to severe interferences outside the context scientific problems and was cancelled. Apart from two weeks of PI salary (and associated fringe & overhead costs issues by the performing institution), no costs were charged against the award, with the entire rest of funding returned to the Department of Energy. This report reiterates the primary background information regarding the project, its original goals, and outlines the preliminary work performed during the two weeks of DOE funding charged.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Two-Way Option Contracts That Facilitate Adaptive Water Reallocation in the Western United States

Many water markets in the western United States (U.S.) have the ability to reallocate water temporarily during drought, often as short-term water rights leases from lower value irrigated activities to higher value urban uses. Regulatory approval of water transfers, however, typically takes time and involves high transaction costs that arise from technical and legal analyses, discouraging short-term leasing. This leads municipalities to protect against drought-related shortfalls by purchasing large volumes of infrequently used permanent water rights. High transaction costs also result in municipal water rights rarely being leased back to irrigators in wet or normal years, reducing agricultural productivity. This research explores the development of a multi-year two-way option (TWO) contract that facilitates leasing from agricultural-to-urban users during drought and leasing from urban-to agricultural users during wet periods. The modeling framework developed to assess performance of the TWO contracts includes consideration of the hydrologic, engineered, and institutional systems governing the South Platte River Basin in Colorado where there is growing competition for water between municipalities (e.g., the city of Boulder) and irrigators. The modeling framework is built around StateMod, a network-based water allocation model used by state regulators to evaluate water rights allocations and potential rights transfers. Results suggest that the TWO contracts could allow municipalities to maintain supply reliability with significantly reduced rights holdings at lower cost, while increasing agricultural productivity in wet and normal years. Additionally, the TWO contracts provide irrigators with additional revenues via net payments of option fees from municipalities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-fidelity information fusion with concatenated neural networks

Recently, computational modeling has shifted towards the use of statistical inference, deep learning, and other data-driven modeling frameworks. Although this shift in modeling holds promise in many applications like design optimization and real-time control by lowering the computational burden, training deep learning models needs a huge amount of data. This big data is not always available for scientific problems and leads to poorly generalizable data-driven models. This gap can be furnished by leveraging information from physics-based models. Exploiting prior knowledge about the problem at hand, this study puts forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) approach to build more tailored, effective, and efficient surrogate models. For our analysis, without losing its generalizability and modularity, we focus on the development of predictive models for laminar and turbulent boundary layer flows. In particular, we combine the self-similarity solution and power-law velocity profile (low-fidelity models) with the noisy data obtained either from experiments or computational fluid dynamics simulations (high-fidelity models) through a concatenated neural network. We illustrate how the knowledge from these simplified models results in reducing uncertainties associated with deep learning models applied to boundary layer flow prediction problems. The proposed multi-fidelity information fusion framework produces physically consistent models that attempt to achieve better generalization than data-driven models obtained purely based on data. While we demonstrate our framework for a problem relevant to fluid mechanics, its workflow and principles can be adopted for many scientific problems where empirical, analytical, or simplified models are prevalent. In line with grand demands in novel PGML principles, this work builds a bridge between extensive physics-based theories and data-driven modeling paradigms and paves the way for using hybrid physics and machine learning modeling approaches for next-generation digital twin technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of soot formation from aviation fuels in laminar counterflow flames

Combustion emissions from aviation contribute to the formation of condensation trail (contrail) that can lead to the formation of anthropogenic cirrus clouds. Ice particles that form contrails are observed to have a linear correlation with soot particle number density. Synthetic aviation fuels (SAFs) offer a promising route to mitigate the production of soot particles while also increasing energy security. Although studies have focused on combustion and spray behavior, the detailed investigation of soot formation processes for different jet fuels and their impact on models for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) applications is not well understood. Moreover, experimental measurements of soot for canonical flames using Synthetic aviation fuels (SAF) for model validation remain scarce. To address this, we use employed the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) detailed soot model based on the discrete sectional method. Additionally, we develop two reduced chemical mechanisms for Jet-A and Alcohol-to-Jet (C1) that are suitable for turbulent flame simulations and couple them with the Hybrid Method of Moments (HMOM). The detailed and reduced model frameworks are validated against experimental measurements of soot volume fraction (ƒ ν ) from a counterflow burner experiment previously reported in the literature. Given the good agreement between modeling results and experimental measurements for the (1) spatial distribution of ƒ ν and (2) the non-linear variation of peak ƒ ν with strain rate, we further investigate the modeled sub-processes (nucleation, condensation, surface growth, and oxidation) using the LLNL model to analyze the assumptions in the reduced model framework. Furthermore, the results indicate a significant contribution from resonant radicals to the surface growth of soot particles, which are not accounted for in the current implementation of HMOM and could help reconcile soot predictions by the reduced model with observations.

Counterflow↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of hemiwicking dynamics in micropillar arrays

Dynamic hemiwicking behavior is observable in both nature and a wide range of industrial applications ranging from biomedical devices to thermal management. We present a semi-analytical modeling framework (without empirical fitting coefficients) to predict transient capillary-driven hemiwicking behavior of a liquid through a nano/microstructured surface, specifically a micropillar array. In our model framework, the liquid domain is discretized into micropillar unit cells to enable the time marching of the hemiwicking front. A simplified linear pressure drop is assumed along the hemiwicking length such that the local meniscus curvature, contact angle, and effective liquid height are determined at each time step in our transient model. This semi-analytical model is validated with experimental data from our own experiments and from published literature for different fluids. Our model predicts hemiwicking dynamics with <20% error over a broad range of micropillar geometries with height-to-pitch ratio ranging between ≈0.34 and 6.7 and diameter-to-pitch ratio in the range of ≈0.25–0.7 and without any fitting parameters. For lower diameter-to-pitch ratio data points related to sparse micropillar array arrangements, we suggest modifications to the semi-analytical model. This work sheds light on complex and dynamic solid–liquid–vapor interfacial interactions which could serve as a guide for the design of textured surfaces for wicking enhancement in multi-phase thermal and mass transport technologies and applications.

Mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2021

YAHFC: A Code Framework to Model Nuclear Reactions and Estimate Correlated Uncertainties

Reaction modeling is a key ingredient in designing experiments and interpreting their results, and is an essential component in the process of evaluating nuclear data and assembling nuclear data libraries used in nuclear technology applications. Typically, experimental data are available only for a handful of reaction channels and theory models are used to fill in the gaps. In addition, theory is often called upon as the arbitrator between discrepant data. Most importantly, theory and modeling are required for an accurate determination of uncertainties in the evaluated data and the correlations between the multiple channels. A fast, accurate, and flexible modeling capability has been developed at LLNL with the code system YAHFC (Yet Another Hauser-Feshbach Code). YAHFC is a Monte Carlo, Hauser-Feshbach code framework, making full use of dynamic memory allocation, derived types, and parallel computing. YAHFC can generate events to simulate experiments and is guiding experiments designed to measure inelastic neutron scattering from actinide targets. YAHFC is also being used to analyze decays from surrogate experiments, thereby enabling the inference of reaction cross sections inaccessible by direct measurement. Finally, by modeling nuclear reactions with constraints from experimental data, YAHFC can deliver complete nuclear data libraries, with evaluated uncertainties, using the modernized Generalized Nuclear Data Structure (GNDS).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting microstructurally sensitive fatigue‐crack path in WE43 magnesium using high‐fidelity numerical modeling and three‐dimensional experimental characterization

Abstract Microstructurally small fatigue‐crack growth in polycrystalline materials is highly three‐dimensional due to sensitivity to local microstructural features (e.g., grains). One requirement for modeling microstructurally sensitive crack propagation is establishing the criteria that govern crack evolution, including crack deflection. Here, a high‐fidelity finite‐element modeling framework is used to assess the performance and validity of various crack‐growth criteria, including slip‐based metrics (e.g., fatigue‐indicator parameters), as potential criteria for predicting three‐dimensional crack paths in polycrystalline materials. The modeling framework represents cracks as geometrically explicit discontinuities and involves voxel‐based remeshing, mesh‐gradation control, and a crystal‐plasticity constitutive model. The predictions are compared to experimental measurements of WE43 magnesium samples subject to fatigue loading, for which three‐dimensional grain structures and fatigue‐crack surfaces were measured post‐mortem using near‐field high‐energy x‐ray diffraction microscopy and x‐ray computed tomography. Findings from this work are expected to improve the predictive capabilities of simulations involving microstructurally small fatigue‐crack growth in polycrystalline materials.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Efficient Dimensionality Reduction and Surrogate Modeling of High-Dimensional Stress Fields

Tensor datatypes representing field variables like stress, displacement, velocity, etc., have increasingly become a common occurrence in data-driven modeling and analysis of simulations. Numerous methods [such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs)] exist to address the meta-modeling of field data from simulations. As the complexity of the simulation increases, so does the cost of acquisition, leading to limited data scenarios. Modeling of tensor datatypes under limited data scenarios remains a hindrance for engineering applications. Here, in this article, we introduce a direct image-to-image modeling framework of convolutional autoencoders enhanced by information bottleneck loss function to tackle the tensor data types with limited data. The information bottleneck method penalizes the nuisance information in the latent space while maximizing relevant information making it robust for limited data scenarios. The entire neural network framework is further combined with robust hyperparameter optimization. We perform numerical studies to compare the predictive performance of the proposed method with a dimensionality reduction-based surrogate modeling framework on a representative linear elastic ellipsoidal void problem with uniaxial loading. The data structure focuses on the low-data regime (fewer than 100 data points) and includes the parameterized geometry of the ellipsoidal void as the input and the predicted stress field as the output. The results of the numerical studies show that the information bottleneck approach yields improved overall accuracy and more precise prediction of the extremes of the stress field. Additionally, an in-depth analysis is carried out to elucidate the information compression behavior of the proposed framework.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microstructural changes and mass transport in cement-based materials: A modeling approach

Highlights: • Concept to relate microstructural changes, mass transport, and chemical reactions in cement-based materials is presented. • Multi-physics modeling approach utilizing an extended version of the PNP equation and the geochemical code IPHREEQC. • Case studies indicate significant changes in mass transport properties due to alterations in the microstructure. • Microstructural changes depend on exposure and interactions between chemical reactions, pore structure, and mass transport. A generic modeling framework is presented to relate microstructural changes, i.e. changes in the pore volume distribution and phase assemblage, and mass transport in cement-based materials. The modeling framework accounts for mass transport and chemical equilibrium between ions in the pore solution and solid hydrates by means of an extended version of the Poisson-Nernst-Planck equation, in which the chemical equilibrium is solved by the external geochemical code IPHREEQC. Results of numerical studies concerning carbonation and leaching of a cement-based material indicate significant changes in mass transport properties due to chemical reactions leading to alterations in the microstructure. The resulting highly non-linear (both spatial and temporal) microstructural changes are thereby depending on the exposure and indicate that interactions between chemical reactions, pore structure changes, and mass transport have to be accounted for as a whole.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Conifers depend on established roots during drought: results from a coupled model of carbon allocation and hydraulics

Trees may survive prolonged droughts by shifting water uptake to reliable water sources, but it is unknown if the dominant mechanism involves activating existing roots or growing new roots during drought, or some combination of the two. To gain mechanistic insights on this unknown, a dynamic root-hydraulic modeling framework was developed that set up a feedback between hydraulic controls over carbon allocation and the role of root growth on soil–plant hydraulics. The new model was tested using a 5 yr drought/heat field experiment on an established pi~non-juniper stand with root access to bedrock groundwater. Owing to the high carbon cost per unit root area, modeled trees initialized without adequate bedrock groundwater access experienced potentially lethal declines in water potential, while all of the experimental trees maintained nonlethal water potentials. Simulated trees were unable to grow roots rapidly enough to mediate the hydraulic stress, particularly during warm droughts. Alternatively, modeled trees initiated with root access to bedrock groundwater matched the hydraulics of the experimental trees by increasing their water uptake from bedrock groundwater when soil layers dried out. Therefore, the modeling framework identified a critical mechanism for drought response that required trees to shift water uptake among existing roots rather than growing new roots.

Mackay, D. Scott↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predictive modeling of a subcritical pulverized-coal power plant for optimization: Parameter estimation, validation, and application

As renewable power generation deployment increases, fossil fuel plants are increasingly required to operate more flexibly. Many coal-fired power plants were originally designed to operate at base load and do not operate optimally at partial load. Predictive first-principles plant-wide models can be employed to identify opportunities for flexibility improvements and diagnose low-load operating issues. This paper describes the application of the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems Integrated Platform (IDAES) to model and optimize flexible power plant operations. The key benefits of using IDAES are that it provides an open-source, fully equation-oriented modeling framework for efficient modular model construction, reuse, and customization, together with a mathematical optimization framework leveraging powerful, state-of-the-art solvers. The process systems engineering workflow from predictive process simulation to parameter estimation, model validation, and plant optimization is applicable to a variety of existing and next-generation energy systems as well as other chemical and environmental processes. Here, to demonstrate this capability, a physics-based, steady-state model was developed to improve full- and part-load performance of the Escalante Generating Station, a 245 MWe (net) subcritical pulverized coal-fired power plant owned and operated by Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association. Specifically, sixty-nine model parameters were simultaneously estimated from several months of operating data enabling prediction of flow rates, temperatures, pressures, and steam quality throughout the plant. The validated model was leveraged by Escalante to reduce the minimum operating load from 90 MW to 50 MW by diagnosing a low-load water-hammer issue, enabling coal usage and emissions reductions during periods of low power demand. Additionally, opportunities for heat rate reduction (i.e., efficiency improvement) through a steeper sliding-pressure approach to load-following and optimization of other boiler operating variables were also identified and quantified. For example, a potential efficiency improvement of 0.7 percentage points was observed at half-load operation.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

A One‐Dimensional Model for Turbulent Mixing in the Benthic Biolayer of Stream and Coastal Sediments

Abstract In this paper, we develop and validate a rigorous modeling framework, based on Duhamel's Theorem, for the unsteady one‐dimensional vertical transport of a solute across a flat sediment‐water interface (SWI) and through the benthic biolayer of a turbulent stream. The modeling framework is novel in capturing the two‐way coupling between evolving solute concentrations above and below the SWI and in allowing for a depth‐varying diffusivity. Three diffusivity profiles within the sediment (constant, exponentially decaying, and a hybrid model) are evaluated against an extensive set of previously published laboratory measurements of turbulent mass transfer across the SWI. The exponential diffusivity profile best represents experimental observations and its reference diffusivity scales with the permeability Reynolds number, a dimensionless measure of turbulence at the SWI. The depth over which turbulence‐enhanced diffusivity decays is of the order of centimeters and comparable to the thickness of the benthic biolayer. Thus, turbulent mixing across the SWI may serve as a universal transport mechanism, supplying the nutrient and energy fluxes needed to sustain microbial growth, and nutrient processing, in the benthic biolayer of stream and coastal sediments.

Grant, Stanley B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Leaching Model of Radionuclides in Metal-Organic Framework Particles

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have been used to sequester radionuclides and seal them inside of porous scaffolds using postsynthetic modification procedures. Experiments show that certain Zr-MOF with different capping linkers significantly affects the radionuclide release kinetics. In this work, we developed a leaching model of radionuclides in Zr-MOF particles. The model assumes that uranyl species occupy two energetically favored sites: the metal node and the MOF pores. For a given overall concentration of uranyl species, the partitions of uranyl species at the metal nodes and within the pores are determined by their chemical potentials. The model also considers the effect of particle surface and concentration on chemical potentials and diffusivity. The effects of spatial and structural dependent chemical potentials and diffusivity as well as particle sizes on leaching kinetics are investigated with the model. Predicted and measured uranyl leaching kinetics in Zr-MOF particles under batch experiments are compared. The results demonstrate the model’s capability for exploring the mechanisms of leaching and provide guidance for material design.

Metal-Organic Framework, Diffusion, uranyl, Leachi↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards Prospective LCA Using Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) Framework for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

emissions↗

DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Solar-Thermal Systems Performance under Transient Operation Using a Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach Based on the Deep Operator Network Architecture

Modeling and prediction of the dynamic behavior of thermal systems operating under intermittent energy input and variable load requirements represent one of the greatest challenges in the development of efficient and reliable renewable-based power generation technologies. In this work, a data-driven machine learning modeling framework was developed based on a modified version of the Deep Operator Network architecture where the time coordinate in the trunk net is replaced with historical data of the predicting quantity. The modeling framework can be used to accurately predict the performance of renewable-based energy conversion technologies including wind- and solar-based power plants. This novel framework was applied on a solar-thermal system that consists of a solar collection loop using a flat plate collector, a power generation loop comprising an Organic Rankine Cycle, and a thermal energy storage tank connecting both loops. Variable solar irradiance, air temperature, and power load profiles were used by the Deep Operator Network to predict the State-of-Charge and the efficiency of the thermal system for several days. The results were compared with the State-of-Charge and efficiency functions calculated using a physics-based model. For a simple operation scenario, characterized by a clear sky solar irradiance profile and constant load, the standard deviation in the State-of-Charge prediction by Deep Operator Network is below 0.9% during a seven-day prediction time horizon. For the most realistic operation scenario that considers real solar irradiance and a rough load profile, the maximum standard deviation in the predictions for the State-of-Charge and efficiency are below 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively. A comparison between Deep Operator Network and Long Short Term Memory network was also performed. In general, both networks predict very well the State-of-Charge for different data density conditions; however, a higher accuracy, with a standard deviation below 2.0%, is obtained by the Deep Operator Network during three and half days using sparser training data of 20-minute points. The same accuracy for the State-of-Charge prediction with the Long Short Term Memory network is achieved only for 14 h. Average standard deviations for the State-of-Charge prediction of 1.1% with the Deep Operator Network and 1.5% with the Long Short Term Memory network are obtained for a four-day prediction time using a denser training data of 5-minute points.

DeepONet↗