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At least 253 records · Page 14

Thermal and Well Flow Performance of Closed-Loop Geothermal in the Wattenberg Area

Closed-loop geothermal systems provide an alternative to resource-constrained hydrothermal systems and stimulation-intensive enhanced geothermal systems. In this work, we apply the slender-body theory (SBT) model, to simulate the well flow and heat transfer performance of U-loop well designs in the Wattenberg area of the Denver-Julesburg Basin. Three U-loop well patterns are investigated, including a single-, double-, and multi-lateral design. The subsurface within the area of interest is characterized by deep, hot (> 200 degrees C) igneous/metamorphic basement rock underlying multiple sedimentary formations. The lateral section(s) of the U-loop lie(s) within a target depth of 6 km, where temperatures are estimated to approach 300 degrees C. As a base case, conduction-only heat transfer is investigated through simulations with the SBT model within U-loops with open-hole laterals that exchange heat directly with the hot, dry rock using water as a working fluid. The utilization of supercritical CO2 as a heat transfer fluid is also considered. For each scenario, the system performance in terms of annual heat production and temperature profile over a 20-year project lifetime are assessed. Also, the levelized costs of heat and electricity (LCOH and LCOE) are determined using a top-down techno-economic analysis model. The results show that the performance- and cost-optimized U-loop design is one having an injection-production well spacing of 1,000 meters with ten 50-meter-spaced laterals that traverse a subsurface system with a temperature gradient of 60 degrees C/km. By injecting 20 degrees C-water at a rate of 60 kg/s through this loop, an average heat production of 19 MWth (i.e., 2.2 MWe net plant output) can be achieved, resulting in an LCOE and LCOH of $136/MWhe and $1.53/GJ, respectively, over a 20-year project life.

closed-loop geothermal↗

Optimizing Cornell’s future geothermal district heating performance through systems engineering and simulation

Cornell University’s intention to lower its carbon footprint has motivated this engineering evaluation of using low-temperature geothermal energy to supply heat to the campus district energy system. Optimal selection and operation of heat pumps can significantly improve system performance. To support this analysis, we model the quantitative relationships between heat pump configurations and source flow, supply and distribution temperatures, facility heating design options, output heat generation, and carbon abatement outcomes. A systems approach is used for analysis, troubleshooting, and improvement of the model. The result of this effort is a dynamic tool that appropriately responds to hourly thermal demand and communicates energy response for techno-economic analysis. Simulations indicate that a single well-pair in the local Basement Contact Zone reservoir can satisfy almost 68% of annual thermal demand at nearly 20 MWth average capacity while remaining financially competitive compared to conventional heating with levelized cost of heating (LCOH) as low as $4.55/MMBTU ($15.53/MWh th ). A direct-use scheme with heat pump augmentation provided more carbon abatement and 50 to 150% more annual heat supply than one without augmentation. Exploration of three and four well-pair scenarios prove the capability to achieve 50 MW th baseload heating capacity with competitive LCOH and significant carbon reductions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Considerations for AMI-Based Operations for Distribution Feeders

More than $5 billion in investments in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) technologies, AMI deployments, as pervasive secondary network voltage monitoring systems, provide opportunities for utility operations and controls. This paper focuses on the considerations for AMI-based tools and techniques as the industry moves toward operationalizing such large data sets. Phase identification is a first such tool. Numerous distribution network analysis, monitoring, and control applications - including volt/volt-ampere reactive control, state estimation, and distribution automation - require accurate phase connectivity information in the system models. The phase connectivity database maintained by utilities is inaccurate because of a significant amount of missing data, restoration activities, and network reconfiguration. Existing phase identification techniques that estimate phase connectivity work well in distribution feeders that have low or no photovoltaic (PV) generation; however, they fail to identify the phases accurately when considerable PV generation is present. This work addresses the phase identification problem in the presence of high PV generation using statistical analysis methods. Further, insights into the AMI data requirements for this application in terms of data window length and resolution are provided using sensitivity analysis performed on an actual distribution feeder model of San Diego Gas & Electric Company. The results of this study show that the phase connectivity, even in the presence of high PV generation, can be accurately identified using statistical analysis of AMI data of 1 day.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Interface Problem Formulation Improvements with Application to Nuclear Fuel Performance Analysis

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. This report documents new developments and robustness improvements in mechanical and thermal (gap heat transfer) contact formulations. The improvements range from the migration of industrial level (“assessment”) nuclear fuel model setups to the usage of mortar formulations, the addition of frictional contact to one-dimensional layered representations of fuel and cladding components, and the addition of the Petrov-Galerkin approach to dual mortar, which improves performance on curved, relatively coarse meshes. In addition, the Lagrange-multiplier enforcement of mechanical mortar contact constraints has been extended to two additional types of enforcement: penalty and augmented Lagrange-Uzawa. We show that the latter approach yields the same interface results as dual mortar in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment, with the advantage of not worsening the condition number of the system matrix—thereby enabling the use of some general implementations of iterative preconditioners, at the expense of additional system evaluations (i.e., augmentations).

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Integrated Assessment of a G3 GMD Event on Large-Scale Power Grids: From Magnetometer Data to Geomagnetically Induced Current Analysis

Solar activities can cause geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) that give rise to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) which may compromise the reliability of the power system. In order to build more reliable models representing GMD interactions with the power grid, the power system’s detailed electrical model must be considered along with fluctuations in the earth’s magnetic and induced surface electric fields. Here, this study investigates the impact of incorporating spatially varying magnetic fields into surface electric field models on GMD risk metrics. A spatially independent magnetic field model and a spatially varying model are compared through simulations. To perform this analysis, the earth’s magnetic field disturbances are transformed into surface electric fields using respective one-dimensional earth conductivity models. Then, the modeling impact of these electric fields is studied using a 2,000-bus grid for Texas and a 25,000-bus grid for the northeast and mid- Atlantic regions of the United States. Simulation results reveal that the inclusion of spatially varying magnetic fields results in considerable differences in GMD risk metrics, highlighting the importance of accounting for spatial variability when assessing GMD risks in the power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Uncertainty analysis of correlated parameters in automated reaction mechanism generation

Abstract Uncertainty analysis is a useful tool for inspecting and improving detailed kinetic mechanisms because it can identify the greatest sources of model output error. Owing to the very nonlinear relationship between kinetic and thermodynamic parameters and computed concentrations, model predictions can be extremely sensitive to uncertainties in some parameters while uncertainties in other parameters can be irrelevant. Error propagation becomes even more convoluted in automatically generated kinetic models, where input uncertainties are correlated through kinetic rate rules and thermodynamic group values. Local and global uncertainty analyses were implemented and used to analyze error propagation in Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG), an open‐source software for generating kinetic models. A framework for automatically assigning parameter uncertainties to estimated thermodynamics and kinetics was created, enabling tracking of correlated uncertainties. Local first‐order uncertainty propagation was implemented using sensitivities computed natively within RMG. Global uncertainty analysis was implemented using adaptive Smolyak pseudospectral approximations as implemented in the MIT Uncertainty Quantification Library to efficiently compute and construct polynomial chaos expansions to approximate the dependence of outputs on a subset of uncertain inputs. Cantera was used as a backend for simulating the reactor system in the global analysis. Analyses were performed for a phenyldodecane pyrolysis model. Local and global methods demonstrated similar trends; however, many uncertainties were significantly overestimated by the local analysis. Both local and global analyses show that correlated uncertainties based on kinetic rate rules and thermochemical groups drastically reduce a model's degrees of freedom and have a large impact on the determination of the most influential input parameters. These results highlight the necessity of incorporating uncertainty analysis in the mechanism generation workflow.

Gao, Connie W.↗

Scalability analysis of heavy-duty gas turbines using data-driven machine learning

With the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems, the role of flexible power generation technologies like gas turbines (GT) in rapid grid balancing remains crucial. This sustained importance underscores the need for scaled and precise modeling of GT to ensure effective integration within evolving energy frameworks. While physics-driven GT models integrate thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, and combustion principles, they often rely on approximate mathematical representations to accommodate scaling that may not capture the actual complex dynamics for GTs and inertial effects associated to GTs with different ratings. In this study, a data-driven model is proposed using machine learning (ML) techniques to conduct GT scalability analysis and performance evaluation with high accuracy. The ML model, trained on data from various operating conditions and performance parameters, aims to uncover intricate relationships and patterns, resembling GT characteristics at different scales (ratings). The model is developed to capture complex system interaction and to adapt to changing operational scenarios at different capacities, providing valuable insights of power system dynamics. In this study, the real-time digital simulator platform was employed to generate training data for the ML model and assess its dynamic characteristics. The ultimate objective was to develop a detailed modeling framework based on governing equations and data-driven ML capable of predicting key performance indicators, in thermal systems such as GTs, including power output, speed, fuel consumption, and exhaust temperature under diverse operating conditions at different scales. The developed ML framework demonstrated high accuracy, with mean relative errors for GT power prediction, reference speed, exhaust temperature, and compressor pressure ratio (CPR) parameters consistently below 0.1% across typical load fluctuation scenarios. Maximum deviations were limited to approximately 0.5 K for exhaust temperature and 0.009 for CPR, underscoring the model’s ability to replicating dynamic GT behavior with high precision. The adaptability of the ML model enables its application across diverse operational conditions and its extension to other thermal systems. By leveraging advanced ML techniques, this study presents a robust and scalable modeling framework that enhances GT simulation precision, facilitating improved integration into evolving power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Securing against malicious control of circuit breakers in electrical substations

An example method for detecting and mitigating attacks on electric power substations comprises detecting a command to open or close a circuit breaker in the electric power substation. A modified extended substation model for the electric power substation is generated, based on the detected command and based on measurements in substation, where the modified extended substation model is a power flow model for the substation and for one or more directly connected neighboring substations. A power flow analysis is performed, using the modified extended substation model, to generate a predicted voltage for each of a plurality of nodes in the substation and in the one or more directly connected neighboring substations. Each predicted voltage is compared to a corresponding allowable voltage range, and execution of the command is blocked in response to determining that one or more of the voltages is outside the corresponding allowable voltage range.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PSA 2025 Presentation: "Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of a Generation IV Pebble Bed Reactor Using MELCOR 2.2"

Accompanying the advancement of reactor technologies is the need for computational modeling and simulation to predict their behavior under normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. New Generation IV reactor designs which employ non-conventional fuel have a particular need for modeling the behavior and release of radionuclides and other material from the fuel. In this work, MELCOR version 2.2, a system-level safety and accident scenario code developed by Sandia National Laboratories, was used to model a 200-MWth pebble bed modular reactor and calculate the inventories of circulating and deposited graphite, metal dust, and elemental components released from the fuel elements. A base case modeling the reactor under standard operating conditions was calculated using MELCOR and the inventories were extrapolated to 30 years of operation time using a logarithmic regression fit. A sensitivity analysis was also performed in which several key parameters for the base case model were modified to explore the effect of these changes on the inventories calculated by MELCOR. A set of transient scenario simulations for a depressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC) accident were also performed. The results of the sensitivity analysis and transient simulations are reported and discussed in relation to the modeling techniques used for this study.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimizing conformance control for gas injection EOR in unconventional reservoirs

Field observations have shown that interference between wells caused by connected fractures commonly exists in unconventional reservoirs. The well interference effect and conformance issues could lead to minimal enhanced oil recovery response (EOR) in actual operations if they are not properly controlled. A series of data analysis, modeling, and experimental activities were performed in this study to investigate the gas EOR strategies in the Bakken Formation. Employing the embedded discrete fracture modeling technology, a multiple-well, multiple-fracture model was developed to capture the well interference and conformance issues in the Bakken. The model made it possible to investigate the complex flow behavior between wells in the EOR (huff ‘n’ puff) processes. Alternative EOR and conformance control strategies using water and surfactant injections were studied to improve oil production performance based on experimental observations. Results showed that water injection could be used for conformance control in the Bakken because of its relatively low mobility compared to gas; however, water could also block oil flow around the conformance control wells because of the high interfacial tension between oil and water. Adding surfactant to the injection water is more effective for improving gas EOR performance since surfactant reduces the oil–water interfacial tension and contact angle effectively. Up to 9.4% more oil could be produced from the huff ‘n’ puff wells in 2 years of EOR operations when rich gas was injected at only 3 MMscf/d with 6000 psi of surfactant injection in the offset wells for conformance control.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Structural studies of the IFNλ4 receptor complex using cryoEM enabled by protein engineering

Abstract IFNλ4 has posed a conundrum in human immunology since its discovery in 2013, with its expression linked to complications with viral clearance. While genetic and cellular studies revealed the detrimental effects of IFNλ4 expression, extensive structural and functional characterization has been limited by the inability to express and purify the protein, complicating explanations of its paradoxical behavior. In this work, we report a method for robust production of IFNλ4. We then use yeast surface display to affinity-mature IL10Rβ and solve the 72 kilodalton structures of IFNλ4 (3.26 Å) and IFNλ3 (3.00 Å) in complex with their receptors IFNλR1 and IL10Rβ using cryogenic electron microscopy. Comparison of the structures highlights differences in receptor engagement and reveals a distinct 12-degree rotation in overall receptor geometry, providing a potential mechanistic explanation for differences in cell signaling, downstream gene induction, and antiviral activities. Further, we perform a structural analysis using molecular modeling and simulation to identify a unique region of IFNλ4 that, when replaced, enables secretion of the protein from cells. These findings provide a structural and functional understanding of the IFNλ4 protein and enable future comprehensive studies towards correcting IFNλ4 dysfunction in large populations of affected patients.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Big Data Analysis of Massive PMU Datasets: A Data Platform Perspective

The discovery of `event signatures' and useful insights from very large historical Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets is predicated on offline Big Data analysis approaches that rely on the generation of predictive features on a massive scale. This paper presents lessons learned from a data platform perspective towards reducing barriers to adoption of Big Data analytics against a real dataset of almost half a trillion data points drawn from over 400 PMUs distributed across the North American power grid. We demonstrate software abstractions and targeted performance optimizations that can lead to significant productivity gains for power systems researchers seeking to perform offline exploratory temporal analysis and modeling tasks, with a focus on feature generation. We describe how our optimized approach goes beyond a naive application of mainstream Big Data technologies, enabling feature generation tasks, that previously took days or even weeks, to now be completed in just a few hours.

Kumar, Vijay S.↗

Impedance-Aware Graph Convolutional Networks for Voltage Estimation in Active Distribution Networks

Voltage estimation plays a key role in ensuring the effective control and reliability of distribution networks. However, traditional machine learning methods often fail to capture the details of the distribution network’s topology. To overcome this challenge, graph convolutional networks (GCN) have emerged as an alternative. Graph convolutional networks inherently capture the topology of the grid, utilizing correlations to achieve precise voltage estimation. Other machine learning models and conventional GCNs fail to account for the distribution line characteristics found in the real world, limiting their effectiveness. This paper proposes an advanced variant of GCN called the Impedance-Aware Graph Convolutional Network (IA-GCN). The IA-GCN layer incorporates the magnitude of the impedance into the graph convolution mechanism, allowing it to capture topological nuances and provide valuable insights into node interrelationships by considering impedance as an intrinsic dimension. The performance of the IA-GCN layer is then compared with that of GCN and GraphSAGE layers through a surrogate model for voltage estimation. The performance analysis demonstrates that IA-GCN outperforms GCN by reducing the MAE by 87.55% and improving the R-squared value by 98%.

Ravi, Abhijith↗

As-Run Neutronics Evaluation for the CSM-10584 Experiment in the ATR

This engineering calculations and analysis report (ECAR) documents the results of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) detailed Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code full-core model as-run physics analysis performed to support the Colorado School of Mines (CSM) experiment in the B-5 position.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Simulating Atmospheric Boundary Layer Turbulence with Nek5000/RS

We present large-eddy-simulation (LES) modeling approaches for the simulation of atmospheric boundary layer turbulence that are of direct relevance to wind energy production. In this report, we study a GABLS benchmark problem using high-order spectral element code Nek5000/RS, which is supported under the DOE’s Exascale Computing Project (ECP) Center for Efficient Exascale Discretizations (CEED) project, targeting application simulations on various acceleration-device based exascale computing platforms [1, 2]. We demonstrate our newly developed subgrid-scale (SGS) models based on high-pass filter (HPF), mean-field eddy viscosity (MFEV), and Smagorinsky (SMG) with no-slip and traction boundary conditions, provided with low-order statistics, convergence and turbulent structure analysis. The model fidelity and scaling performance of Nek5000/RS on DOE’s leadership computing platforms in comparison to those of AMR-Wind, a block-structured second-order finite-volume code with adaptive-mesh-refinement capabilities, are discussed in [3].

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Advanced Research Directions on AI for Science, Energy, and Security: Report on Summer 2022 Workshops

Over the past decade, fundamental changes in artificial intelligence (AI)—from foundational to applied—have delivered dramatic insights across a wide breadth of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) mission space. AI is helping to augment and improve scientific and engineering workflows (e.g., for control, design, and dramatic performance gains through surrogate models) in national security, the Office of Science, and DOE’s applied energy programs. The progress and potential for AI in DOE science was captured in the 2020 “AI for Science” report from the DOE laboratory community in collaboration with academia and industry. Specific scientific areas ready to further leverage the power of AI ranged from the scale and performance of computational models to data analysis to creating new classes of observations using computer vision. Since that report, the scale and scope of scientific AI have accelerated, revealing new, emergent properties that yield insights that go beyond enabling opportunities to being potentially transformative in the way that scientific problems are posed and solved. Thus, under the guidance of both the Office of Science (SC) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the DOE national laboratories organized a series of workshops in 2022 to gather input on new and rapidly emerging opportunities and challenges of scientific AI. This 2023 report is a synthesis of those workshops. The scientific community believes AI can have a foundational impact on a broad range of DOE missions, including science, energy, and national security. Further, DOE has unique capabilities that enable the community to drive progress in scientific use of AI, building on long-standing DOE strengths and investments in computation, data, and communications infrastructure, spanning the Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), the Exascale Computing Project (ECP), and integrative programs such as the NNSA Office of Defense Programs Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) and the SC Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Motor with Advanced Concepts for High power density and INtegrated cooling for Efficiency (MACHINE)

Raytheon Technologies Research Center (RTRC) is the central research and development (R&D) organization for RTX, and has extensive expertise in the design, modeling and analysis of high-performance electrical machines and thermal management for all its business units. The proposing team consists of researchers from RTRC and John Deere (JD), will be referred as “Team”. Each organization a has long track record of successful R&D of materials, manufacturing, components, and systems for energy efficiency applications. Motor power density and efficiency are limited by fundamental physical trade-offs between electromagnetics, thermal management, and structural design considerations. The team is proposing to utilize novel technologies and multi-physics design methods to develop a Motor with Advanced Concepts for High power density and INtegrated cooling for Efficiency (MACHINE), demonstrating an 8X improvement in power density.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗