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At least 253 records · Page 14

A comparison of the climate simulated by the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM1:R15) with ECMWF analyses

The Community Climate Model (CCM) is a comprehensive three-dimensional global atmospheric model assembled at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Detailed comparisons are made between the climate simulated by a seasonal version of CCM, namely CCM1, at 12 level, R15 spectral resolution, and that revealed by ECMWF operational analyses over 1980-86 truncated to a similar resolution. A variety of circulation statistics are presented in order to reveal the spatial character and seasonality of CCM1 biases in temperature, winds, and wave flux quantities. The biases revealed for CCM1 are similar in many respects to those found in other climate models run at similar resolution. Results of this study are then presented, discussing temperature biases and thermodynamic balances, wind fields, zonal mean wave diagnostics, stationary waves, and local eddy statistics. The major findings are then summarized.

Randel, William J.↗

HYTHIRM Radiance Modeling and Image Analyses in Support of STS-119, STS-125 and STS-128 Space Shuttle Hypersonic Re-entries

We provide the first geometrically accurate (i.e., 3-D) temperature maps of the entire windward surface of the Space Shuttle during hypersonic reentry. To accomplish this task we began with estimated surface temperatures derived from CFD models at integral high Mach numbers and used them, the Shuttle's surface properties and reasonable estimates of the sensor-to-target geometry to predict the emitted spectral radiance from the surface (in units of W sr-1 m-2 nm-1). These data were converted to sensor counts using properties of the sensor (e.g. aperture, spectral band, and various efficiencies), the expected background, and the atmosphere transmission to inform the optimal settings for the near-infrared and midwave IR cameras on the Cast Glance aircraft. Once these data were collected, calibrated, edited, registered and co-added we formed both 2-D maps of the scene in the above units and 3-D maps of the bottom surface in temperature that could be compared with not only the initial inputs but also thermocouple data from the Shuttle itself. The 3-D temperature mapping process was based on the initial radiance modeling process. Here temperatures were guessed for each node in a well-resolved 3-D framework, a radiance model was produced and compared to the processed imagery, and corrections to the temperature were estimated until the iterative process converged. This process did very well in characterizing the temperature structure of the large asymmetric boundary layer transition the covered much of the starboard bottom surface of STS-119 Discovery. Both internally estimated accuracies and differences with CFD models and thermocouple measurements are at most a few percent. The technique did less well characterizing the temperature structure of the turbulent wedge behind the trip due to limitations in understanding the true sensor resolution. (Note: Those less inclined to read the entire paper are encouraged to read an Executive Summary provided at the end.)

Gibson, David M.↗

Probing Physics beyond the Standard Model through Combined Analyses of Next-generation Type Ia Supernova, Cosmic Microwave Background, and Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Surveys

Observations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), which probe the late Universe, together with baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB), which probe the intermediate and early epochs, provide complementary constraints on the expansion history of the Universe. In this work, we forecast constraints on dark energy and other extensions to the standard cosmological model by combining the SN Ia sample expected from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), data from current and forthcoming CMB surveys, and BAO measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). For the CMB, we use temperature, polarization, and lensing power spectra (TT/EE/TE/ϕϕ) from the South Pole Telescope, the planned Advanced Simons Observatory, and a CMB-S4–like experiment. We derive constraints on ΛCDM and its extensions involving the dark energy equation-of-state parameters (w 0 , w a ) and the sum of neutrino masses ∑m ν using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework. We find that the LSST Year 3 SN Ia sample can improve upon the DES Year 5 dark energy constraints by a factor of 2−2.5×, with the gains driven primarily by the significantly higher SN Ia density in the LSST sample. Similarly, DESI-DR3 shows up to a 1.8× improvement on dark energy parameters over DR2, driven largely by the substantial increase in the low-redshift sample. Combining CMB with LSST-Y3-SN Ia and DESI-DR3-BAO yields σ(w 0 ) = 0.028 and σ(w a ) = 0.11 for w 0 w a CDM cosmology with the results being largely independent of the CMB dataset. The constraints weaken by 10%–30% when freeing ∑m ν and spatial curvature. Moreover, the joint analysis of the three datasets can enable a 2σ–3σ detection of ∑m ν .

Raghunathan, Srinivasan [University of California;↗

Performance Assessment Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses of Generic Disposal System Concepts

The Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is conducting research and development (R&D) on generic deep geologic disposal systems (i.e., repositories) for high-activity nuclear wastes (i.e., used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW)) that exist today or that could be generated in future fuel cycles. This report describes specific activities in FY2014 toward the development of an enhanced generic disposal system modeling and analysis capability that utilizes high performance computing (HPC) environments to simulate important multi-physics phenomena and couplings associated with the potential behavior of a geologic repository for UNF and HLW.

Sevougian, S. David↗

Models and error analyses in urban air quality estimation

Estimation theory has been applied to a wide range of aerospace problems. Application of this expertise outside the aerospace field has been extremely limited, however. This paper describes the use of covariance error analysis techniques in evaluating the accuracy of pollution estimates obtained from a variety of concentration measuring devices. It is shown how existing software developed for aerospace applications can be applied to the estimation of pollution through the processing of measurement types involving a range of spatial and temporal responses. The modeling of pollutant concentration by meandering Gaussian plumes is described in some detail. Time averaged measurements are associated with a model of the average plume, using some of the same state parameters and thus avoiding the problem of state memory. The covariance analysis has been implemented using existing batch estimation software. This usually involves problems in handling dynamic noise; however, the white dynamic noise has been replaced by a band-limited process which can be easily accommodated by the software.

Englar, T., Jr.↗

Improved Mars Helicopter Aerodynamic Rotor Model for Comprehensive Analyses

The Mars Helicopter is part of the NASA Mars 2020 rover mission scheduled to launch in July of 2020. Its goal is to demonstrate the viability and potential of heavier-than-air vehicles in the Martian atmosphere. Ultimately, it aims to bridge the resolution gap between orbiters and the rover as well as allow access to otherwise inaccessible regions. The low density of the Martian atmosphere and the relatively small-scale rotor result in very low Reynolds number flows. The low density and low Reynolds numbers reduce the lifting force and lifting efficiency, respectively. This paper describes the generation of the improved Mars Helicopter aerodynamic rotor model. The goal is to generate a performance model for the Mars Helicopter rotor using a free wake analysis, since this has a low computational cost for design. The improvements in the analysis are two-fold and are expanded on from two prior publications. First, the fidelity of the simulations is increased by performing higher-order two-dimensional time-accurate OVERFLOW simulations allowing for higher accuracy aerodynamic coefficients and a better understanding of the boundary layer behavior as well as its transient features. Second, a version of the model is generated to duplicate the exact testing conditions in the 25–ft. diameter Space Simulator at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which allows for better correlation of rotor performance figures. Previous work correlated performance with that test, but did not consider the higher temperatures in the experiment compared to those of the Martian atmosphere. The higher temperatures in the experiment are expected to give conservative performance estimates, as they give rise to an increase in speed of sound and decrease in observed Reynolds numbers.

Grip, Håvard F.↗

Analyses of flight model spacecraft performance during thermal-vacuum tests

In 1968 a study of the thermal-vacuum test results from 11 flight model spacecraft was published in NASA Technical Note TN D-4908. A major interest then was the relationship of malfunctions to their times of occurrence in test. From that study conclusions were drawn with respect to the length of time required for an adequate thermal-vacuum test of flight model spacecraft. A serious limitation on the study was the small amount of documented data available. The purpose of the present report is to update and to extend the findings of that study. The test results of 39 spacecraft, compared with the test results of 11 spacecraft used in the earlier study, now provide a better basis for the analysis. The new data were developed for analysis in the same manner as for the 1968 report, in order to facilitate comparison of the two studies. However, the larger data base made additional types of analyses worthwhile, and the present results are a significant extension of the earlier work.

Heuser, R. E.↗

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol Direct Radiative and Cloud Adjustment Effects on Surface Climate over Eastern China: Analyses of WRF Model Simulations

The WRF-simulated changes in clouds and climate due to the increased anthropogenic aerosols for the summers of 2002–08 (vs the 1970s) over eastern China were used to offline calculate the radiative forcings associated with aerosol–radiation (AR) and aerosol–cloud–radiation (ACR) interactions, which subsequently facilitated the interpretation of surface temperature changes. During this period, the increases of aerosol optical depth (ΔAOD) averaged over eastern China range from 0.18 in 2004 to 0.26 in 2007 as compared to corresponding cases in the 1970s, and the multiyear means (standard deviations) of AR and ACR forcings at the surface are −6.7 (0.58) and −3.5 (0.63) W m −2 , respectively, indicating the importance of cloud changes in affecting both the aerosol climate forcing and its interannual variation. The simulated mean surface cooling is 0.35°C, dominated by AR and ACR with a positive (cooling) feedback associated with changes in meteorology (~10%), and two negative (warming) feedbacks associated with decreases in latent (~70%) and sensible (~20%) heat fluxes. More detailed spatial characteristics were analyzed using ensemble simulations for the year 2008. Three regions—Jing-Jin-Ji (ΔAOD ~ 0.63), Sichuan basin (ΔAOD ~ 0.31), and middle Yangtze River valley (ΔAOD ~ 0.26)—at different climate regimes were selected to investigate the relative roles of AR and ACR. While the AR forcing is closely related to ΔAOD values, the ACR forcing presents different regional characteristics owing to cloud changes. In addition, the surface heat flux feedbacks are also different between regions. The study thus illustrates that ACR forcing is useful as a diagnostic parameter to unravel the complexity of climate change to aerosol forcing over eastern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analyses of Model-Based Predictive Control for a S-CO 2 Brayton Cycle Power Converter

The supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO 2 ) Brayton cycle is a promising alternative to steam cycles as an energy converter for advanced nuclear reactors as well as fossil-fired and concentrated solar power plants. For advanced reactors, such as Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs), the S-CO 2 cycle offers the benefits of high cycle efficiency, very compact turbomachinery, and elimination of sodium-water reactions, all of which may enable improved economics. The efficiency gains calculated for the S-CO 2 cycle are particularly significant if advantage can be taken of the sharp changes in the carbon dioxide thermo-physical properties near the critical point. On the other hand, the same property variations give rise to challenges in the cycle design, analysis, and control. The onset of two-phase flow (where the minimum cycle temperature and pressure drop drop below the critical value) can degrade compressor performance and potentially cause damage to the compressor blades. In previous work, the feasibility of the Model-based Predictive Control (MPC) approach was assessed for improving regulation of the precooler outlet temperature. A linear reduced-order model for the precooler was generated and for this simplified standalone system operating with an MPC controller the response of outlet temperature was evaluated through simulations. These evaluations included the presence of temperature measurement time delay representing a degraded sensor. It was demonstrated that the MPC controller maintained stable precooler temperature for those delay cases where a proportional-integral controller became unstable. In the present work the simulations have been extended to evaluate the MPC controller operating under more realistic conditions, namely in the split-flow recompression cycle non-linear plant. This compares with the previous standalone reduced-order linear system described above. In the present work the MPC-based control scheme was implemented in a GPASS 1-D systems code representation of the split-flow recompression cycle. The performance of the controller was again investigated for degraded sensor conditions and compared to that of a proportional-integral controller. The results were qualitatively similar to the previous results with the MPC controller and again providing superior stability characteristics. This work provides a sound starting point for the development of model-based control systems. In particular, the MPC control approach applied to Multiple Input Multiple Output systems can be used to synchronize the operation of the different system components to improve control system dynamic performance.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Development of advanced diagnostic tools, models, and technoeconomic analyses for high-temperature heat transfer coefficient heat exchangers

This is a final technical report of a system designed to image fall particle receivers. High temperature heat is hard to store and move and using low cost materials, similar to sand, are ideal. However, particle-to-particle interactions can impact heat transfer mechanisms in these classes of materials. This report highlights our effects to utilize x-ray imaging to understand these dynamics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Central Asia Seismic Hazard Assessment (CASHA): A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) underpin the calculation of earthquake loads in most building codes around the world. In Central Asia, the building codes are slowly being updated to incorporate some of the contemporary concepts of seismic hazard representation. There is also a regional desire to coordinate hazard assessments and building code modernization. However, some challenges remain. Expertise in the region related to seismic hazard assessments is still largely compartmentalised, requiring a significant amount of training and capacity building in seismic hazard assessment related topics. In addition, there are vast amounts of seismic data (bulletin and waveforms), both from analogue and digital eras, that the region’s countries stored but until recently did not use or share among themselves or with the broader seismological community around the world. Finally, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, many of the countries’ seismic networks suffered a major setback with the lack of attention and budget to update existing equipment and installation of new instruments. In order to address these issues, the United States Department of Energy through Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) initiated a project in 2016 to engage and train local scientists in Central Asia to install new equipment, to enhance the quality of seismic monitoring and reporting, to improve and harmonise the regional earthquake catalogue, and to conduct national probabilistic seismic hazard assessments using the new and improved datasets. To achieve the seismic hazard assessment related goals, a series of workshops were held in Almaty, Kazakhstan; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; and Dushanbe, Tajikistan from 2016 until 2020. During the time that the COVID-19 pandemic restricted travel, workshops continued online (22 online workshops were hosted in two years). Finally, in May 2022, an in-person workshop in Istanbul, Turkey brought together all project participants along with civil engineers engaged with building code activities in their respective countries, providing a platform to discuss the implementation of the hazard models into updates of building codes in each country, as well as to discuss model parameters, sensitivity analyses and model results in terms of hazard maps, uniform hazard spectra and hazard deaggregations. The workshops were a combination of lectures and hands-on exercises, and included international participation as well as local scientists and engineers. The workshops served several purposes, including training, coordination of data collection, interactions between local earth scientists and engineers, and brainstorming and knowledge exchange among local and international experts. This report outlines the new earthquake catalogue compilation effort and the PSHA project undertaken in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan as part of this initiative. The southern part of this region is tectonically active with moderate to high levels of both shallow crustal seismic activity and occurrence of deeper earthquakes under the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain ranges. Deeper earthquakes also occur near southwestern Kazakhstan, under the eastern Greater Caucasus and Caspian Sea. Large portions of central and northern Kazakhstan, on the other hand, are in stable continental regions with low levels of seismic activity. This study systematically compiles and improves all available data on local seismicity, active faults, and ground motion attenuation characteristics of the region; and builds a framework to enable a contemporary PSHA to be carried out with the engagement of local scientists. While the project was regional, the seismic hazard assessments are primarily driven by the countries’ own national preferences and understanding of data collection, interpretation, and validation of results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analyses of flight model spacecraft performance during thermal-vacuum tests

Malfunction data from the thermal-vacuum tests of 39 flight-model spacecraft were analyzed. The results are interpreted in terms of the test variables, and in terms of the spacecraft performance. The malfunction data are correlated with the test time as a single variable, and also with the composite variable of time plus temperature. The improvement in spacecraft performance is examined by means of malfunction rates, malfunctions per spacecraft, and the probability of no failure related to test time. The minimum thermal-vacuum test profile required for Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft is verified, and the probability of a defect remaining undetected is estimated.

Timmins, A. R.↗

Analyses of flight model spacecraft performance during thermal-vacuum tests

Malfunction data from the thermal-vacuum tests of 39 flight-model spacecraft have been analyzed. The results are interpreted in terms of the test variables and the spacecraft performance. The malfunction data are correlated with the test time as a single variable, and also with the composite variable of time plus temperature. The improvement in spacecraft performance is examined by means of malfunction rates, malfunctions per spacecraft, and the probability of no failure related to test time. The minimum thermal-vacuum test profile required for Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft is verified, and the probability of a defect remaining undetected is estimated.

Timmins, A. R.↗

Space shuttle maneuvering engine reusable thrust chamber program. Task 11: Stability analyses and acoustic model testing data dump

The combustion stability characteristics of engines applicable to the Space Shuttle Orbit Maneuvering System and the adequacy of acoustic cavities as a means of assuring stability in these engines were investigated. The study comprised full-scale stability rating tests, bench-scale acoustic model tests and analysis. Two series of stability rating tests were made. Acoustic model tests were made to determine the resonance characteristics and effects of acoustic cavities. Analytical studies were done to aid design of the cavity configurations to be tested and, also, to aid evaluation of the effectiveness of acoustic cavities from available test results.

Oberg, C. L.↗

Applications of elastic-viscoplastic constitutive models in dynamic analyses of crack run-arrest events

Applications of nonlinear techniques to the first series of six HSST wide-plate crack-arrest tests that were performed are described. The experiments include crack initiations at low temperatures and relatively long (20 cm) cleavage propagation phases which are terminated by arrest in high temperature regions. Crack arrest are then followed by ductile tearing events. Consequently, the crack front regions are exposed to wide ranges of strain rates and temperatures.

Bass, B. R.↗