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At least 253 records · Page 14

Advanced Hydropower and PSH Capacity Expansion Modeling (Final Report on HydroWIRES D1 Improvements to Capacity Expansion Modeling)

Hydropower and pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) have played a key role in providing flexible, low-carbon electricity to the U.S. electricity system for over a century. As variable generation (VG) deployment increases the demand for flexible, dispatchable generation, it is important to use all available methods for understanding how hydropower and PSH interfaces with VG in a future low-carbon grid. Capacity expansion models (CEMs) of electricity systems are often used to study future electricity scenarios, but these tools often have difficulty representing site- and technology-details of hydropower and PSH due to limited spatial, temporal, or process resolution. This report demonstrates a set of model advancements to improve hydropower and PSH representations in CEMs and other models that consider hydropower and PSH's role in electricity systems. Model advancements include new data integration to define closed-loop PSH resource availability and cost, along with site-level parameterizations of existing PSH capacity and energy storage specifications. Shifting energy across seasons for both hydropower and PSH is explored to demonstrate the potential value of long-duration storage. New representations of hydropower upgrades offer opportunities to increase dispatchability, add pumps, or independently add capacity or energy depending on what is most valuable. New model structures and data are demonstrated individually and in combination to observe their impact on model results and provide initial insights into what is most important for analysts, electricity system planners, and hydropower decision-makers to consider when assessing future roles of hydropower. Improving flexibility of existing hydropower assets has the potential to reduce CO 2 emissions through complementing VG technologies and/or improve electricity system economics by reducing the need to deploy higher-cost systems. Large-scale energy storage is also shown to provide opportunities for balancing seasonal differences in VG, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV). Initial analysis with a new closed-loop PSH resource and cost dataset also demonstrate the potential for new PSH deployment to offer new grid flexibility opportunities. Future analysis and modeling of hydropower's role in the U.S. and other electricity systems could include methodological improvements based on those discussed here along with sensitivity analysis to better represent current and future potential hydropower and PSH flexibility. Improvements to geospatial and site-level data can further improve the understanding of how hydropower and PSH can be upgraded and operated in response to future electricity system needs. This work lays the groundwork to use advanced planning models to explore the range of roles hydropower and PSH can play in the grid of the future.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Grain Boundary‐Derived Cu + /Cu 0 Interfaces in CuO Nanosheets for Low Overpotential Carbon Dioxide Electroreduction to Ethylene

Abstract Electrochemical CO 2 reduction reaction can be used to produce value‐added hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals by coupling with clean electrical energy. However, highly active, selective, and energy‐efficient CO 2 conversion to multicarbon hydrocarbons, such as C 2 H 4 , remains challenging because of the lack of efficient catalysts. Herein, an ultrasonication‐assisted electrodeposition strategy to synthesize CuO nanosheets for low‐overpotential CO 2 electroreduction to C 2 H 4 is reported. A high C 2 H 4 Faradaic efficiency of 62.5% is achieved over the CuO nanosheets at a small potential of −0.52 V versus a reversible hydrogen electrode, corresponding to a record high half‐cell cathodic energy efficiency of 41%. The selectivity toward C 2 H 4 is maintained for over 60 h of continuous operation. The CuO nanosheets are prone to in situ restructuring during CO 2 reduction, forming abundant grain boundaries (GBs). Stable Cu + /Cu 0 interfaces are derived from the low‐coordinated Cu atoms in the reconstructed GB regions and act as highly active sites for CO 2 reduction at low overpotentials. In situ Raman spectroscopic analysis and density functional theory computation reveal that the Cu + /Cu 0 interfaces offer high *CO surface coverage and lower the activation energy barrier for *CO dimerization, which, in synergy, facilitates CO 2 reduction to C 2 H 4 at low overpotentials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Multifaceted Analysis of Chemical-Absorption Heat Pump Technology for Integrated Energy Systems

Integrated Energy Systems (IES) research and development is essential for improving the economic usage of lowcarbon energy sources such as nuclear power, solar, and wind in the U.S. An ideal IES uses various energy sources and delivers energy to the power grid and industry as efficiently as possible. As part of this effort, there are many opportunities to use low-carbon energy for industries requiring process heat for production of many chemicals and fuels [1]. Currently, industries only have the option to burn CO2 emitting fuels or use resistance heaters for this process heat. Using resistance heaters is one way to electrify a process, allowing for low-carbon energy sources to be used, but is an inefficient method unless temperatures exceed 1000?C. Heat pumps have long been used to provide efficient heating or cooling by moving heat instead of generating it. More traditional heat pumps such as vapor compression heat pumps and absorption heat pumps are limited to temperatures below 300?C due to refrigerant and component material limits. However, chemical heat pumps have been investigated as an option for pumping heat at temperatures above 600?C [2], making the heat more applicable to many more chemical and fuel production processes.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of a Thermally Integrated Solid Oxide Fuel Cell and Compressed Air Energy Storage Hybrid System

Natural-gas-fueled solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems have the potential for high-efficiency conversion of carbon to power due to the underlying electrochemical conversion process while readily facilitating carbon capture through the separation of the fuel and oxidant sources. Compressed air energy storage (CAES) technology can potentially store significant quantities of energy for later use with a high round-trip efficiency and lower cost when compared with state-of-the-art battery technology. The base load generation capability of SOFC can be coupled with CAES technology to provide a potentially flexible, low-carbon solution to meet the fluctuating electricity demands imposed by the increasing share of intermittent variable renewable energy (VRE) production. SOFC and CAES can be hybridized through thermal integration to maximize power output during periods of high electrical demand and then store power when either demand is low or renewable generation reduces power prices. The techno-economics of a low-carbon hybrid SOFC and CAES system was developed and investigated in the present study. The proposed hybrid system was found to be cost-competitive with other power-generating base-load facilities when power availability was considered. The hybrid system shows increased resilience to changes in a high VRE grid market scenario.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC): Users’ Manual and Technical Documentation

The carbon intensities (CIs) of biofuels are determined with the life cycle analysis (LCA) technique, which accounts for the energy/material uses and emissions during the complete supply chain of biofuel including feedstock production and fuel conversion stages. Regulatory agencies such as California Air Resources Board (CARB) adopts LCA to calculate biofuel CIs. The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program developed by CARB allows individual biofuel conversion facilities to submit their own biofuel CIs with their facility input data and incentivizes the reduction in the CI specific to that particular facility compared to a reference fuel’s CI (Liu et al 2020). Such an incentive program has driven innovations in biorefineries to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by linking their revenue directly to its CI score through LCFS credit trading. Besides the biofuel conversion stage, different farming practices for feedstock growth can result in significant CI variations for feedstocks, thus for biofuels. To provide evidence-based research findings, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) has supported the Systems Assessment Center of the Energy Systems and Infrastructure Analysis Division at Argonne National Laboratory to examine CI variations of different farming practices to grow agricultural crops for biofuel production. Meanwhile, the ARPA-E has launched the Systems for Monitoring and Analytics for Renewable Transportation Fuels from Agricultural Resources and Management (SMARTFARM) program to develop technologies and data platforms that enable an accurate measurement of key farming parameters that can help robust accounting of the GHG benefits of sustainable, low-carbon agronomic practices at farm level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS): A U.S. Perspective

The North American electric power system is undergoing significant change, with renewable resources now contributing more generation than ever before. This transformation is poised to continue given decreasing technology costs and ambitious decarbonization goals at the federal, state, local, corporate, and consumer levels. The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS) aims to inform grid planners, utilities, industry, policymakers, and other stakeholders about challenges and opportunities for continental system integration of large amounts of wind, solar, and hydropower to support a low-carbon future grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a detailed, continent-wide analysis with planning scenarios of transmission, generation, and demand to reach 80%–92% carbon reductions (from 2005) for the Canadian electric power system, and up to 80% reductions continent-wide. We used a suite of models to study future scenarios and gain insights, including potential impacts on costs, emissions, resource adequacy, and the specific technologies that help enable the transition to a low-carbon grid. Our analysis had a particular focus on the potential role of cooperation among the three North American countries and between regions within each country, and how transmission can support sharing of supply and demand diversity. The NARIS project began in 2016. This report describes a U.S. perspective in coordination with the U.S. Department of Energy, and a companion report describes a Canadian perspective in coordination with the Natural Resources Canada. NARIS was an extension of a previous body of work, including the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study, Interconnections Seam Study, and the Pan Canadian Wind Integration Study. NARIS analyzed the entire continent in detail while studying higher renewable generation than previous studies. The scenarios in NARIS were informed by the goals in the Mid-Century Strategies for the Paris Agreement in each country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS): A Canadian Perspective

The North American electric power system is undergoing significant change, with renewable resources now contributing more generation than ever before. This transformation is poised to continue given decreasing technology costs and ambitious decarbonization goals at the federal, state, local, corporate, and consumer levels. The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS) aims to inform grid planners, utilities, industry, policymakers, and other stakeholders about challenges and opportunities for continental system integration of large amounts of wind, solar, and hydropower to support a low-carbon future grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a detailed, continent-wide analysis with planning scenarios of transmission, generation, and demand to reach 80%–92% carbon reductions (from 2005) for the Canadian electric power system, and up to 80% reductions continent-wide. We used a suite of models to study future scenarios and gain insights, including potential impacts on costs, emissions, resource adequacy, and the specific technologies that help enable the transition to a low-carbon grid. Our analysis had a particular focus on the potential role of cooperation among the three North American countries and between regions within each country, and how transmission can support sharing of supply and demand diversity. The NARIS project began in 2016. This report describes a Canadian perspective in coordination with the Natural Resources Canada, and a companion report describes a U.S. perspective in coordination with the U.S. Department of Energy. NARIS was an extension of a previous body of work, including the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study, Interconnections Seam Study, and the Pan Canadian Wind Integration Study. NARIS analyzed the entire continent in detail while studying higher renewable generation than previous studies. The scenarios in NARIS were informed by the goals in the Mid-Century Strategies for the Paris Agreement in each country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Techno-economic analysis of synthetic fuel production from existing nuclear power plants across the United States

Abstract Low carbon synfuel can reduce dependence on fossil fuels like diesel and jet fuel, and, with large-scale cost-effective production, contribute to global transportation sector decarbonization, Simultaneously, nuclear power plants are struggling economically due to falling wholesale electricity prices. Converting existing nuclear plants for synfuel production could preserve these low-carbon assets and enable large-scale synfuel production, yet no comprehensive technoeconomic analysis exists. This study evaluates the potential of integrating synthetic fuel production with five US nuclear plants, considering electricity and fuel markets and carbon dioxide source access. Such integration could enhance nuclear plant profitability by up to $792 million and offer a 10% return on investment over 20 years. The hydrogen production tax credit from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act is crucial, comprising 75% of revenues on average. Carbon feedstock transportation has the highest cost at 35%, followed closely by synfuel production capital costs. Incentive policies are thus key for the decarbonization of the transportation sector and the economic importance of the geographic location of Integrated Energy Systems.

Garrouste, Marisol (ORCID:0000000168388644)↗

Global Life Cycle and Techno-Economic Assessment of Algal-Based Biofuels

Techno-economic analyses (TEAs) and life cycle assessments (LCAs) of algal biofuels often focus on locations in suboptimal latitudes for algal cultivation, which can under-represent the sustainability potential of the technology. This study identifies the optimal global productivity potential, environmental impacts, and economic viability of algal biofuels by using validated biophysical and sustainability modeling. The biophysical model simulates growth rates of Scenedesmus obliquusbased on temperature, photoinhibition, and respiration effects at 6685 global locations. Region-specific labor costs, construction factors, and tax rates allow for spatially resolved TEA, while the LCA includes regional impacts of electricity, hydrogen, and nutrient markets across ten environmental categories. The analysis identifies optimal locations for algal biofuel production in terms of environmental impacts and economic viability which are shown to follow biomass yields. Modeling results highlight the global variability of productivity with maximum yields ranging between 24.8 and 27.5 g m -2 d -1 in equatorial regions. Environmental impact results show favorable locations tracked with low-carbon electricity grids, with the well-to-wheels global warming potential (GWP) ranging from 31 to 45 g CO 2eq MJ -1 in South America and Central Africa. When including direct land use change impacts, the GWP ranged between 44 and 55 g CO 2eq MJ -1 in these high-productivity regions. Low-carbon electricity also favors air quality and eutrophication impacts. The TEA shows that minimum algal fuel prices of $\$1.89$-$\$2.15$ per liter of gasoline-equivalent are possible in southeast Asia and Venezuela. Furthermore, this discussion focuses on the challenges and opportunities to reduce fuel prices and the environmental impacts of algal biofuels in various global regions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Potential for large-scale deployment of offshore wind-to-hydrogen systems in the United States

This study explores the role of producing low-carbon hydrogen using water electrolysis powered by offshore wind in facilitating the United States’ transition to a net-zero emissions economy by 2050. This research introduces an open-source scenario analysis tool for offshore wind-to-hydrogen systems, aiming to assess the impact of technology, regional considerations, and policy incentives on the cost of producing low-carbon hydrogen through offshore wind. Conducting a regional techno-economic analysis at four U.S. coastal sites, the study evaluates two energy transmission configurations and examines associated costs for the years 2025, 2030, and 2035. The results highlight that locations using fixed-bottom technology may achieve cost-competitive water electrolysis hydrogen production by 2030 through leveraging geologic hydrogen storage and federal policy incentives. Furthermore, floating technology locations are expected to see an average 38% reduction in the levelized cost of hydrogen from 2025 to 2035.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The role of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage and as an international energy carrier for electricity sector decarbonization

With countries and economies around the globe increasingly relying on non-dispatchable variable renewable energy (VRE), the need for effective energy storage and international carriers of low-carbon energy has intensified. This study delves into hydrogen's prospective, multifaceted contribution to decarbonizing the electricity sector, with emphasis on its utilization as a scalable technology for long-duration energy storage and as an international energy carrier. Using Japan as a case study, based on its ambitious national hydrogen strategy and plans to import liquefied hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel source, we employ advanced models encompassing capacity expansion and hourly dispatch. We explore diverse policy scenarios to unravel the timing, quantity, and operational intricacies of hydrogen deployment within a power system. Our findings highlight the essential role of hydrogen in providing a reliable power supply by balancing mismatches in VRE generation and load over several weeks and months and reducing the costs of achieving a zero-emission power system. The study recommends prioritizing domestically produced hydrogen, leveraging renewables for cost reduction, and strategically employing imported hydrogen as a risk hedge against potential spikes in battery storage and renewable energy costs. Furthermore, the strategic incorporation of hydrogen mitigates system costs and enhances energy self-sufficiency, informing policy design and investment strategies aligned with the dynamic global energy landscape.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multicarrier Energy Systems: Shaping Our Energy Future

Multicarrier energy systems (MCESs) are characterized by strong coordination in operation and planning across multiple energy vectors and/or sectors to deliver reliable, cost-effective energy services to end users/customers with minimal impact on the environment. They have efficiency and flexibility benefits and are deployed in large and small scales on the supply and demand sides and at the network level but are more complex to control and manage. Here, MCESs are reviewed in the context of future low carbon energy systems based on electrification and very high variable renewable energy penetrations. Fully exploiting these systems requires some cost reductions, more sophisticated operations enabled by standardized communications and control capabilities detailed planning paradigms, and addressing their corresponding economic challenges. All these point toward the direction of analysis, markets, and technology research and development coupled with better policy and regulatory frameworks. One futuristic vision of a very low carbon energy system is proposed that illustrates potential pathways to an MCES-dominated energy future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Liquid Salt Combined-Cycle Pilot Plant Design

The work described in this report is responsive to the Office of Fossil Energy program ‘Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation.’ This Phase I report has been prepared by Pintail Power LLC, with support from Nexant ECA, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Southern Company Services as a deliverable for the U.S. Department of Energy for NETL Award DE-FE-00320016. The Liquid Salt Combined Cycle™ (LSCC™) technology provides large-scale energy storage integrated with Fossil Electric Generating Units (FEGUs) to meet critical needs in the energy transition by providing: • the lowest cost large-scale storage for time-shifting of renewable energy, • superior fuel efficiency to reduce GHGs from dispatchable resources, • flexible capacity and ramping to balance variability of wind and solar resources, • essential grid stability services to assure reliability of a low-carbon grid. The LSCC approach: • employs equipment that has already been proven in utility service, • uses safe, non-toxic, non-degrading, perpetual-life storage medium, • leverages and repurposes existing FEGU assets, • expands the value stack of energy storage to reduce market, financing, and commodity risks. Pintail Power has developed the LSCC technology to meet the need for reliable, efficient, and cost-effective integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) into a low-carbon electric grid by coupling proven thermal energy storage with proven gas turbines, steam turbines, and heat transfer equipment. This novel approach is intended to address the key issues facing the grid and operators of renewable and fossil generating units including: • Overgeneration and curtailment of renewables, • Need for fast ramping dispatchable resources, • Improved efficiency and flexibility of fossil units, • Additional peaking capacity to support electrification of transportation and heating, • Provision of reliability services to support high penetration of VRE, especially synchronous inertia and fast frequency response. A Technology Readiness assessment by EPRI confirmed that LSCC technology consists of commercially proven hardware used in industrial and utility applications. Although the novel LSCC approach has not yet been demonstrated as a complete system, interfaces between major components have been conservatively specified. A Phase III pilot is planned to demonstrate equipment integration and operation. The patented innovation is removal of the evaporator section from the exhaust heat recovery system, with the evaporation performed by stored energy in a separate steam generator. This arrangement couples renewable and fossil power generation via long-duration energy storage to deliver cost, performance, and operational synergies, including superior charging and discharging flexibility, reduced fuel consumption and lower CO 2 emissions compared to conventional Combined Cycle Power Plants, and low-cost, large-scale energy storage. The LSCC technology is composed of proven equipment integrated with gas turbine exhaust heat in a novel system. During charging, electric heaters raise the salt temperature as it flows from the Cold Salt Tank to the Hot Salt Tank. During discharging, hot salt produces steam from feedwater that is heated with gas turbine exhaust, which also superheats steam to drive a steam turbine. LSCC technology can be added to any combustion-turbine to integrate renewable energy, provide needed grid services, and increase the value of fossil electric generating units based on the technology’s following attributes: • Long-duration storage enables time-shifting of VRE to avoid curtailment and impairment of renewable assets. • Long storage duration combined with fast-charging capability increases arbitrage opportunities by storing more energy when the price is low and discharging more hours when the price is high. • Long storage duration allows resource adequacy to be supplied across multiple days to increase reliability and reduce risk. • The stored energy reduces fuel heat rate and GHG emissions, and increases merit, so the LSCC dispatches earlier and longer to increase the plant’s capacity factor and asset value. • The stored energy enables pre-heating and startup of the steam cycle, without operating the gas turbine, to enable fast startup and ramping when dispatched for discharge. • The steam turbine can operate without the gas turbine so it can provide valuable synchronous inertia during charging without consuming fuel. • Fast frequency response and regulation services can be provided during charging using solid-state heater and pump controls to vary the charge power input in response to grid signals. • The LSCC system can be configured for resilience including black start, islanded/micro-grid operation, and even self-recharging of storage using either gas turbine power or gas turbine exhaust heat. The commercialization plan is to add LSCC technology to existing simple cycle gas turbine power plants with the 50MW GE LM6000 aero-derivative gas turbine as the reference design basis. A Techno-economic assessment of the reference design evaluated the benefits (Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy) and costs (Levelized Cost of Energy). The plant definition included all major systems and budgetary vendor quotes. Pintail Power and NexantECA developed the overall cost estimate for the LSCC plant up to the total plant cost level, following the DOE-NETL cost estimate guidelines at AACE Class 3 (-20%/+30%). This includes the equipment cost, bulk material, direct and indirect labor costs to arrive at the bare erected cost. Engineering costs are factored from the BEC and added to it to arrive at the EPC cost. Process and project contingencies were then factored from the EPC cost and rolled-up to yield the total plant cost of $\$$184 million for 1746 MWh of discharge electricity. • At $\$$105/kWh, the reference plant costs less than any of the Energy Storage Systems evaluated by PNNL in 2020 for the Energy Storage Grand Challenge. Operations and Maintenance cost estimates were scaled from combined cycle practice, assuming that the LSCC unit was co-located with and sharing some labor expense with other units, to arrive at $\$$2.2 million per year. Plant economics were evaluated using prices from the ERCOT Day-Ahead Market for calendar year 2019 (excluding the market disruptions from the COVID pandemic and the February 2020 deep freeze event). Assuming economic dispatch in the ERCOT Day-Ahead market, the reference plant capacity factor would have discharged for 2777 hours at 91.9 MW, a 31.66% capacity factor, with a marginal cost of $\$$25.59/MWh, and a LACE of $\$$82.41/MWh. Fixed charges were calculated according to EIA guidelines to arrive at an LCOE of $\$$83.48. The benefit-to-cost ratio of 0.99 suggests that the reference plant would have been cost-effective and competitive in the market. EPRI interviewed selected utilities to gauge the need for, applicability of and interest in the LSCC system. Several utilities are currently managing increased load growth along with the inclusion of increasing levels of renewable generation, putting pressure on conventional generation by requiring increased turndown requirements and ultimately lower capacity factors. All of the utilities interviewed have CO 2 reduction targets in the 2030-2050 timeframe that will severely limit the participation of fossil generation and require better utilization of carbon free generation. While there is limited opportunity for storage in the current markets, the utilities interviewed stated that there will be a substantial need for long duration energy storage in the future given the expected trends. Utilizing an energy storage system will generally be preferred over new gas capacity in some cases, with the capabilities of the LSCC system being a potential option for retrofit to existing simple cycle gas turbine units, allowing them to deliver greater participation in the market with lower carbon intensity. A technology gap assessment and technology maturation plan identified a pilot-scale demonstration as the final step before commercialization. Key gaps to be addressed during the Phase II FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) are component selection and design, commissioning procedures, and operational procedures and the control system for LSCC charging and discharging. The project team has been expanded to include Wood Group PLC as EPC. The proposed Phase II work leads to a pilot-scale engineering demonstration (TRL 6) to be conducted at Southern Company’s Plant Rowan, where the prototype system will perform “all the functions that will be required of the operational system.” The proposed pilot will facilitate commercialization (TRL-9) by scale-up to utility-scale systems integrated with peaking GTs or directly to facility scale systems using industrial GTs. The conceptual design for the pilot plant focuses on the novel integration aspects of LSCC technology. A slipstream of gas turbine exhaust will feed a waste heat recovery unit coupled to a molten salt steam generator heated by stored energy. The pilot is intended to demonstrate all key operating modes of the LSCC technology during charging, discharging and standby. The pilot equipment will be approximately one-seventh scale of the LM6000 commercial target and is expected to have commercial off-ramp potential for facility-scale applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Improving future travel demand projections: a pathway with an open science interdisciplinary approach

Transport accounts for 24% of global CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels. Governments face challenges in developing feasible and equitable mitigation strategies to reduce energy consumption and manage the transition to low-carbon transport systems. To meet the local and global transport emission reduction targets, policymakers need more realistic/sophisticated future projections of transport demand to better understand the speed and depth of the actions required to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we argue that the lack of access to high-quality data on the current and historical travel demand and interdisciplinary research hinders transport planning and sustainable transitions toward low-carbon transport futures. We call for a greater interdisciplinary collaboration agenda across open data, data science, behaviour modelling, and policy analysis. These advancemets can reduce some of the major uncertainties and contribute to evidence-based solutions toward improving the sustainability performance of future transport systems. The paper also points to some needed efforts and directions to provide robust insights to policymakers. We provide examples of how these efforts could benefit from the International Transport Energy Modeling Open Data project and open science interdisciplinary collaborations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential for corn ethanol refining in the USA

This study evaluates how low-carbon production technologies applicable to ethanol plants may reduce the life-cycle greenhouse gas emission (GHG) intensities of corn ethanol production in the USA. Results indicate that options focusing on incremental energy efficiency (e.g., combined heat and power) and yield improvements have a limited impact on GHG reductions. To achieve deep decarbonization (>50% GHG reduction compared to current corn ethanol production), a fuel switch from natural gas (NG) to alternative low-carbon fuels is needed. Replacing 50% of NG demand at ethanol plants with syngas from biomass through gasification or renewable natural gas from animal waste could achieve significant GHG reductions (11.7–23.5 g CO 2 e/MJ ethanol). Adding multiple technologies, including carbon capture and storage, to existing ethanol plants may further reduce GHG emissions to –18.4 g CO 2 e MJ –1 ethanol (including land-use change emissions), which is 120% lower than the carbon intensity of pure gasoline. These results could inform how the ethanol industry could move toward net-zero ethanol production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗