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DOE OSTI2022

Aggregation bias and its drivers in large‐scale flood loss estimation: A Massachusetts case study

Abstract Large‐scale estimations of flood losses are often based on spatially aggregated inputs. This makes risk assessments vulnerable to aggregation bias, a well‐studied, sometimes substantial outcome in analyses that model fine‐grained spatial phenomena at coarse spatial units. To evaluate this potential in the context of large‐scale flood risk assessments, we use data from a high‐resolution flood hazard model and structure inventory for over 1.3 million properties in Massachusetts and examine how prominent data aggregation approaches affect the magnitude and spatial distribution of flood loss estimates. All considered aggregation approaches rely on aggregate structure inventories but differ in whether flood hazard is also aggregated. We find that aggregating only structure inventories slightly underestimates overall losses (−10% bias), and when flood hazard data is spatially aggregated to even relatively small spatial units (census block), statewide aggregation bias can reach +366%. All aggregation‐based procedures fail to capture the spatial covariation of inputs distributions in the upper tails that disproportionately generate total expected losses. Our findings are robust to several key assumptions, add important context to published risk assessments and highlight opportunities to improve flood loss estimation uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of collisional ion orbit loss on neoclassical tokamak radial electric fields

Ion orbit loss is considered important for generating the radially inward electric field Er in a tokamak edge plasma. In particular, this effect is emphasized in diverted tokamaks with a magnetic X point. In neoclassical equilibria, Coulomb collisions can scatter ions onto loss orbits and generate a radially outward current, which in steady state is balanced by the radially inward current from viscosity. To quantitatively measure this loss-orbit current in an edge pedestal, an ion-orbit-flux diagnostic has been implemented in the axisymmetric version of the gyrokinetic particle-in-cell code XGC. As the first application of this diagnostic, a neoclassical DIII-D H-mode plasma is studied using gyrokinetic ions and adiabatic electrons. The validity of the diagnostic is demonstrated by studying the collisional relaxation of Er in the core. After this demonstration, the loss-orbit current is numerically measured in the edge pedestal in quasisteady state. In this plasma, it is found that the radial electric force on ions from Er approximately balances the ion radial pressure gradient in the edge pedestal, with the radial force from the plasma flow term being a minor component. The effect of orbit loss on Er is found to be only mild.

gyrokinetic simulations↗

DOE OSTI2026

Loss Factors for Small Distributed Wind Turbines Based on Field Data in the United States

While wind energy production loss due to unavailability, environmental impacts, curtailment, and other causes has been studied and characterized at the utility-scale wind farm level, observation-based characterization of project loss is lacking for distributed wind energy, particularly for projects involving small wind turbines. Contemporary tools and research that support pre-construction distributed wind energy characterization present a wide range of default loss factors to convert gross energy estimates to net: 7-18%. We hypothesize that we can use generation observations from operational distributed wind projects to develop more accurate representations of loss. Using a density-based filtering technique on distributed wind power generation timeseries, we determine periods of typical performance and use them with regression algorithms in a measure-correlate-predict fashion to simulate what the generation would have been during periods of atypical or unreported performance. From there, the actual versus predicted generation leads to the establishment of observation-informed loss factors (median = 17%) for small, single turbine installation distributed wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the Performance Loss Rate of Photovoltaic Systems Using Time Series Change Point Analysis

The accurate quantification of the performance loss rate of photovoltaic systems is critical for project economics. Following the current research activities in the photovoltaic performance and reliability field, this work presents a comparative assessment between common change point methods for performance loss rate estimation of fielded photovoltaic installations. An extensive testing campaign was thus performed to evaluate time series analysis approaches for performance loss rate evaluation of photovoltaic systems. Historical electrical data from eleven photovoltaic systems installed in Nicosia, Cyprus, and the locations’ meteorological measurements over a period of 8 years were used for this investigation. The application of change point detection algorithms on the constructed monthly photovoltaic performance ratio series revealed that the obtained trend might not always be linear. Specifically, thin film photovoltaic systems showed nonlinear behavior, while nonlinearities were also detected for some crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems. When applying several change point techniques, different numbers and locations of changes were detected, resulting in different performance loss rate values (varying by up to 0.85%/year even for the same number of change points). The results highlighted the importance of the application of nonlinear techniques and the need to extract a robust nonlinear model for detecting significant changes in time series data and estimating accurately the performance loss rate of photovoltaic installations.

photovoltaics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Critical Metallicity of Cool Supergiant Formation. I. Effects on Stellar-mass Loss and Feedback

This paper systematically studies the relation between metallicity and mass loss of massive stars. We perform one-dimensional stellar evolution simulations and build a grid of ~2000 models with initial masses ranging between 11 and 60 M ⊙ and absolute metallicities Z between 0.00001 and 0.02. Steady-state winds, comprising hot main-sequence winds and cool supergiant winds, are the main drivers of the mass loss of massive stars in our models. We calculate the total mass loss over the stellar lifetime for each model. Our results reveal the existence of a critical metallicity Z c at Z ~ 10 –3 , where the mass loss exhibits a dramatic jump. If Z > Z c , massive stars tend to evolve into cool supergiants, and a robust cool wind is operational. In contrast, if Z < Z c , massive stars usually remain as blue supergiants, wherein the cool wind is not activated and the mass loss is generally weak. Moreover, we calculate the wind feedback in a 10 5 M ⊙ star cluster with the Salpeter initial mass function. The kinetic energy released by winds does not exhibit any significant transition at Z c because the wind velocity of a cool supergiant wind is low and contributes little to the kinetic energy. The effects of critical metallicity provide implications for the fates of metal-poor stars in the early universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2015

Unsteady Loss in the Stator Due to the Incoming Rotor Wake in a Highly-Loaded Transonic Compressor

The present paper reports an investigation of unsteady loss generation in the stator due to the incoming rotor wake in an advanced GE transonic compressor design with a high-fidelity numerical method. This advanced compressor with high reaction and high stage loading has been investigated both experimentally and analytically in the past. The measured efficiency in this advanced compressor is significantly lower than the design intention/goal. The general understanding is that the current generation of compressor design/analysis tools miss some important flow physics in this modern compressor design. To pinpoint the source of the efficiency miss, an advanced test with a detailed flow traverse was performed for the front one and a half stage at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Detailed data-match analysis by GE identified an unexpected high loss generation in the pressure side of the stator passage. Higher total temperature and lower total pressure are measured near the pressure side of the stator. Various analyses based on the RANS and URANS of the compressor stage do not calculate the measured higher total temperature and lower total pressure on the pressure side of the stator. In the present paper, a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is applied to find the fundamental mechanism of this unsteady loss generation in the stator due to the incoming rotor wake. The results from the LES were first compared with the NASA test results and the GE interpretation of the test data. LES calculates lower total pressure and higher total temperature on the pressure side of the stator, as the measured data showed, resulting in large loss generation on the pressure side of the stator. Detailed examination of the unsteady flow field from LES shows that the rotor wake, which has higher total temperature and higher total pressure relative to the free stream, interacts quite differently with the pressure side of the blade compared to the suction side of the blade. The higher temperature in the wake remains high as the wake passes through the pressure side of the blade. On the other hand, the total temperature diffuses as it passes through near the suction surface. For the presently investigated compressor, the classical intra-stator wake transport to the pressure side of the blade by the slip velocity in the wake seems to be minor. The main causes of this phenomenon are three-dimensional unsteady vortex interactions near the blade surface. The stabilizing effect of the concave curvature on the suction side keeps the rotor wake thin. On the other hand, the destabilizing effect of the convex curvature of the pressure side makes the rotor wake thicker, which results in a higher total temperature measurement at the stator exit. Additionally, wake stretching through the stator seems to contribute to the redistribution of the total temperature and the loss generation.

Efficiency↗

NASA NTRS2015

Dried Plum Protects From Radiation-Induced Bone Loss by Attenuating Pro-Osteoclastic and Oxidative Stress Responses

Future space explorations beyond the earths magnetosphere will increase human exposure to space radiation and associated risks to skeletal health. We hypothesize that oxidative stress resulting from radiation exposure plays a major role in progressive bone loss and dysfunction in associated tissue. In animal studies, increased free radical formation is associated with pathological changes in bone structure, enhanced bone resorption, reduced bone formation and decreased bone mineral density, which can lead to skeletal fragility. Our long-term goals are to define the mechanisms and risk of bone loss in the spaceflight environment and to facilitate the development of effective countermeasures. We had previously reported that exposure to low or high-LET radiation correlates with an acute increase in the expression of pro-osteoclastic and oxidative stress genes in bone during the early response to radiation followed by pathological changes in skeletal structure. We then conducted systematic screening for potential countermeasures against bone loss where we tested the ability of various antioxidants to mitigate the radiation-induced increase in expression of these markers. For the screen, 16-week old C57Bl6J mice were treated with a dietary antioxidant cocktail, injectable DHLA or a dried plum-enriched diet (DP). Mice were then exposed to 2Gy 137Cs radiation and one day later, marrow cells were collected and the relevant genes analyzed for expression levels. Among the candidate countermeasures tested, DP was most effective in reducing the expression of genes associated with bone loss. Furthermore, analysis of skeletal structure by microcomputed tomography (microCT) revealed that DP also prevents the radiation-induced deterioration in skeletal microarchitecture as indicated by parameters such as percent bone volume (BVTV), trabecular spacing and trabecular number. We also found that DP has similar protective effects on skeletal structure in a follow-up study using 1 Gy of sequential proton and iron, radiation species relevant to spaceflight. When cultured ex vivo under osteogenic conditions, bone marrow-derived cells from DP-fed animals exhibited increased colony numbers compared to control diet-fed animals. These findings suggest that DP exerts pro-osteogenic effects apart from its previously demonstrated anti-resorptive action, which may be one of the mechanisms underlying its radioprotective effect on bone. In conclusion, a diet enriched in certain types of antioxidants may be useful as an intervention for radiation-induced bone loss.

Bone-loss↗

NASA NTRS2016

Effect of Vertical Rate Error on Recovery from Loss of Well Clear Between UAS and Non-Cooperative Intruders

When an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) encounters an intruder and is unable to maintain required temporal and spatial separation between the two vehicles, it is referred to as a loss of well-clear. In this state, the UAS must make its best attempt to regain separation while maximizing the minimum separation between itself and the intruder. When encountering a non-cooperative intruder (an aircraft operating under visual flight rules without ADS-B or an active transponder) the UAS must rely on the radar system to provide the intruders location, velocity, and heading information. As many UAS have limited climb and descent performance, vertical position andor vertical rate errors make it difficult to determine whether an intruder will pass above or below them. To account for that, there is a proposal by RTCA Special Committee 228 to prohibit guidance systems from providing vertical guidance to regain well-clear to UAS in an encounter with a non-cooperative intruder unless their radar system has vertical position error below 175 feet (95) and vertical velocity errors below 200 fpm (95). Two sets of fast-time parametric studies was conducted, each with 54000 pairwise encounters between a UAS and non-cooperative intruder to determine the suitability of offering vertical guidance to regain well clear to a UAS in the presence of radar sensor noise. The UAS was not allowed to maneuver until it received well-clear recovery guidance. The maximum severity of the loss of well-clear was logged and used as the primary indicator of the separation achieved by the UAS. One set of 54000 encounters allowed the UAS to maneuver either vertically or horizontally, while the second permitted horizontal maneuvers, only. Comparing the two data sets allowed researchers to see the effect of allowing vertical guidance to a UAS for a particular encounter and vertical rate error. Study results show there is a small reduction in the average severity of a loss of well-clear when vertical maneuvers are suppressed, for all vertical error rate thresholds examined. However, results also show that in roughly 35 of the encounters where a vertical maneuver was selected, forcing the UAS to do a horizontal maneuver instead increased the severity of the loss of well-clear for that encounter. Finally, results showed a small reduction in the number of severe losses of well-clear when the high performance UAS (2000 fpm climb and descent rate) was allowed to maneuver vertically, and the vertical rate error was below 500 fpm. Overall, the results show that using a single vertical rate threshold is not advisable, and that limiting a UAS to horizontal maneuvers when vertical rate errors are above 175 fpm can make a UAS less safe about a third of the time. It is suggested that the hard limit be removed, and system manufacturers instructed to account for their own UAS performance, as well as vertical rate error and encounter geometry, when determining whether or not to provide vertical guidance to regain well-clear.

detect and avoid↗

NASA NTRS2018

Estimation of Heatshield Mass Loss for Mars 2020 Entry Vehicle

The Mars2020 entry vehicle is currently being developed by NASA to safely land its next rover on the Martian surface in 2021. During entry, the vehicle will be protected from aerothermal environments using a PICA (Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator)-tiled heatshield. PICA loses mass through surface recession and in-depth pyrolysis as it is heated. Pre-flight knowledge of heatshield mass loss is required for vehicle balancing during critical mission events. This study attempts to predict the total mass loss experienced by the Mars2020's heatshield during its entry. A grid was created over the half of the heatshield which generated 108 points across a total of 9 spokes. Aero-thermal environments were provided from CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) calculations that considered a baselined trajectory. The TPS (Thermal Protection System) stack was a build-up of composite, aluminum, composite, an HT-424 bond, followed by PICA. The FIAT (Fully Implicit Ablation, Thermal-response) 1-D analysis utilized this TPS stack and the CFD environments and was run at each grid point giving mass flux information from the point of atmospheric entry until parachute deployment. The mass flux due to recession and pyrolysis gas was summed and integrated first through time and then across the half heatshield using a polar integration tool. The mass loss results were mirrored to the other half of the heatshield to calculate total mass loss throughout the entry phase of flight. This total mass loss value and its distribution was used by entry vehicle designers to account for CG (Center of Gravity) offset during parachute descent when the heatshield is no longer losing significant mass.

PICA↗

NASA NTRS2018

ALMA Spectral Line and Imaging Survey of a Low and a High Mass-Loss Rate AGB Star Between 335 and 362 GHz

Context. Low and intermediate mass stars are known to power strong stellar winds when evolving through the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase. Initial mass, luminosity, temperature, and composition determine the pulsation characteristics of the star and the dust species formed in the pulsating photospheric layers. Radiation pressure on these grains triggers the onset of a stellar wind. However, as of today, we still cannot predict the wind mass-loss rates and wind velocities from first principles neither do we know which species are the first to condense in the upper atmospheric regions. Aims. We aim to characterise the dominant physical, dynamical, and chemical processes in the inner wind region of two archetypical oxygen-rich (C/O<1) AGB stars, that is, the low mass-loss rate AGB star R Dor (M~ 1x10(exp 7) M☉/yr) and the high mass-loss rate AGB star IK Tau (M~5x10(exp 6) M☉/yr). The purpose of this study is to observe the key molecular species contributing to the formation of dust grains and to cross-link the observed line brightnesses of several species to the global and local properties of the star and its wind. Methods. A spectral line and imaging survey of IK Tau and R Dor was made with ALMA between 335 and 362 GHz (band 7) at a spatial resolution of ~150 mas, which corresponds to the locus of the main dust formation region of both targets. Results. Some two hundred spectral features from 15 molecules (and their isotopologues) were observed, including rotational lines in both the ground and vibrationally excited states (up to v=5 for SiO). Detected species include the gaseous precursors of dust grains such as SiO, AlO, AlOH, TiO, and TiO2.We present a spectral atlas for both stars and the parameters of all detected spectral features. A clear dichotomy for the sulphur chemistry is seen: while CS, SiS, SO, and SO2 are abundantly present in IK Tau, only SO and SO2 are detected in R Dor. Also other species such as NaCl, NS, AlO, and AlOH display a completely different behaviour. From some selected species, the minor isotopologues can be used to assess the isotopic ratios. The channel maps of many species prove that both large and small-scale inhomogeneities persist in the inner wind of both stars in the form of blobs, arcs, and/or a disk. The high sensitivity of ALMA allows us to spot the impact of these correlated density structures in the spectral line profiles. The spectral lines often display a half width at zero intensity much larger than expected from the terminal velocity, v1, previously derived for both objects (36 km/s versus v(∞)~17.7 km/s for IK Tau and 23 km/s versus v(∞)~5.5 km/s for R Dor). Both a more complex 3D morphology and a more forceful wind acceleration of the (underlying) isotropic wind can explain this trend. The formation of fractal grains in the region beyond _400 mas can potentially account for the latter scenario. From the continuum map, we deduce a dust mass of ~3.7 x 10(exp 7) M☉ and ~2 x 10(ex0 8) M☉ for IK Tau and R Dor, respectively. Conclusions. The observations presented here provide important constraints on the properties of these two oxygen-dominated AGB stellar winds. In particular, the ALMA data prove that both the dynamical and chemical properties are vastly different for this high mass-loss rate (IK Tau) and low mass-loss rate (R Dor) star.

Stars: AGB and post-AGB, Stars: mass loss, Stars: ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerodynamic loss generation in a low-pressure turbine stage with high lift blading

The present work aims to investigate the loss generation mechanisms in a highly loaded low-pressure turbine (LPT) stage. The turbine employs high-lift airfoils to reduce the number of blades and therefore the overall engine weight. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is applied to study the detailed flow fields at two representative Reynolds numbers (150,000 and 40,000). The calculated flow fields are compared with available measured data. LES calculates the measured aerodynamic performance of the current turbine stage well. Both the measurements and the CFD simulations indicate that most of the aerodynamic loss is generated by the development of secondary flows near the rotor hub. An area of low momentum and high aerodynamic loss forms at roughly 25 % span above the hub downstream of the rotor. Formation and migration of a vortex system near the hub is the primary source of the loss generation. The hub wall vortex system in this highly loaded turbine stage is quite different from the horse-shoe vortex system in a typical stationary turbine cascade. Calculated instantaneous and time-averaged flow fields at two Reynolds numbers are examined in detail to study Reynolds number effects on the turbine stage performance. Steady and unsteady flow separation on the rotor suction side is calculated at both high and low Reynolds numbers. At the lower Reynolds number of 40,000, thicker blade boundary layers increase the area of flow separation on the rotor suction side, resulting in a 1.9 % increase in aerodynamic loss compared to the higher Reynolds number case.

low pressure turbine↗

DOE OSTI2022

In silico evaluation of plant nitrification suppression effects on agroecosystem nitrogen loss

Abstract Nitrification regulates the potential for nitrogen (N) loss from ecosystems because it converts ammonium to nitrate, which is susceptible to leaching and gaseous emissions. Crops can suppress the microbes that perform nitrification by exuding nitrification‐inhibiting compounds from their roots and taking up available ammonium. However, the effect of nitrification suppression on agroecosystem N losses remains poorly characterized, and a lack of temporal synchrony between nitrification, N losses, and nitrification suppression by plants could limit the effect of nitrification suppression. We used the DayCent‐CABBI model to evaluate the effectiveness of the suppression of nitrification by sorghum to reduce N 2 O emissions and nitrate leaching in an energy sorghum/soybean rotation at the Energy Farm in Urbana‐Champaign, IL. We simulated nitrification suppression at the measured levels (MeasNS) and at the maximum measured level applied to the entire growing season (MaxNS), and we also explored ways to better utilize nitrification suppression by altering the timing of urea–ammonium–nitrate fertilizer applications. Model experiments showed that most nitrification occurred immediately after fertilizer was applied, whereas nitrification suppression began to ramp up more than a month after planting. On an annual basis, MeasNS experiments showed a 1%–2% reduction in annual N 2 O emissions relative to no nitrification suppression (NoNS), and MaxNS experiments showed a 4%–9% reduction in annual N 2 O emissions relative to NoNS. Both nitrification suppression levels showed <1% reduction in nitrate leaching. Altering the timing of fertilizer applications to better synchronize nitrification suppression with high soil ammonium levels had mixed effects on annual N 2 O emissions and nitrate leaching and sometimes resulted in increased N losses. The timing of simulated N 2 O emissions shifted with the timing of fertilization, and N 2 O emissions from denitrification increased when N 2 O emissions from nitrification decreased. Increasing N retention during the non‐growing season may be more effective than growing‐season nitrification suppression for reducing annual N losses in the rainfed Midwest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Jensen–Shannon divergence based novel loss functions for Bayesian neural networks

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are state-of-the-art machine learning methods that can naturally regularize and systematically quantify uncertainties using their stochastic parameters. Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence-based variational inference used in BNNs suffer from unstable optimization and challenges in approximating light-tailed posteriors due to the unbounded nature of the KL divergence. To resolve these issues, we formulate a novel loss function for BNNs based on a new modification to the generalized Jensen–Shannon (JS) divergence, which is bounded. In addition, we propose a Geometric JS divergence-based loss, which is computationally efficient since it can be evaluated analytically. We found that the JS divergence-based variational inference is intractable, and hence employed a constrained optimization framework to formulate these losses. Our theoretical analysis and empirical experiments on multiple regression and classification data sets suggest that the proposed losses perform better than the KL divergence-based loss, especially when the data sets are noisy or biased. Specifically, there are approximately 5% and 8% improvements in accuracy for a noise-added CIFAR-10 dataset and a regression dataset, respectively. There is about 13% reduction in false negative predictions of a biased histopathology dataset. Additionally, we quantify and compare the uncertainty metrics for the regression and classification tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heat Loss Effects on Emissions in an NH 3 RRQL Combustor

Ammonia (NH 3 ) is a carbon-free energy carrier with an infrastructure for production, storage, and distribution. There is interest in direct NH 3 combustion, but managing pollutant emissions is a key challenge, particularly nitric oxides (NO x ) due to the fuel-bound nitrogen atom, nitrous oxide (N 2 O), which is a potent greenhouse gas, and unburned NH 3 , which is harmful to humans and the environment. Rich staged combustor concepts with extended primary residence times (τ res,primary ), like Rich-Relax- Quick-mix-Lean (RRQL), offer a viable pathway for direct NH 3 combustion with low levels of NO x formation. However, minimizing secondary emissions such as N 2 O and unburned NH 3 and hydrogen (H 2 ) remains a critical challenge. Prior atmospheric-pressure studies have demonstrated that RRQL operation with sufficiently long τ res,primary enables substantial NO x relaxation and promotes NH 3 cracking to H 2 , if heat losses from the relaxation stage are limited. However, the combined influence of elevated pressure and long residence time on RRQL performance has not been explored. The present work examines RRQL operation at pressures up to 5 bar and elevated τ res,primary . Exhaust measurements of NO x , NH 3 , and N 2 O are used to quantify the extent of NO x relaxation and NH 3 cracking under nonadiabatic conditions. To contextualize and quantify the effects of heat losses in the experimental data, chemical reactor networks (CRNs) incorporating prescribed heat loss rates are employed to assess the sensitivity of emissions to thermal losses in the relaxation stage. Collectively, the results demonstrate that management and quantification of heat losses are essential to preserve NO x relaxation and limit NH 3 and N 2 O emissions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Proteomic Profiling of the Substantia Nigra to Identify Determinants of Lewy Body Pathology and Dopaminergic Neuronal Loss

Proteinaceous aggregates containing ?-synuclein protein called Lewy bodies in the substantia nigra is a hallmark of Parkinson’s disease. The molecular mechanisms of Lewy body formation and associated neuronal loss remain largely unknown. To gain insights on proteins and pathways associated with Lewy body pathology, we performed quantitative profiling of the proteome. We analyzed substantia nigra tissue from 51 subjects arranged into three groups: cases with Lewy body pathology, Lewy body-negative controls with matching neuronal loss and controls with no neuronal loss. Using label-free LC-MS/MS approach we quantified the 2,963 most abundant proteins. Statistical testing for differential protein abundance, followed by pathway enrichment and Bayesian learning of the causal network structure were performed to identify likely drivers of Lewy body formation and dopaminergic neuronal loss. The identified pathways include (1) Arp2/3 complex-mediated actin nucleation; (2) synaptic function; (3) poly(A) RNA binding; (4) basement membrane and endothelium; and (5) hydrogen peroxide metabolic process. According to the data, the endothelial/basement membrane pathway is tightly connected with both pathologies and likely to be one of the drivers of the neuronal loss. The poly(A) RNA-binding proteins, including the ones relevant to other neurodegenerative disorders (e.g. TDP-43 and FUS) have strong inverse correlation with Lewy bodies and may reflect alternative mechanism of nigral neurodegeneration.

Petyuk, Vladislav A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hysteresis Patterns of Watershed Nitrogen Retention and Loss Over the Past 50 years in United States Hydrological Basins

Patterns of watershed nitrogen (N) retention and loss are shaped by how watershed biogeochemical processes retain, biogeochemically transform, and lose incoming atmospheric deposition of N. Loss patterns represented by concentration, discharge, and their associated stream exports are important indicators of integrated watershed N retention behaviors. We examined continental United States (CONUS) scale N deposition (e.g., wet and dry atmospheric deposition), vegetation trends, and stream trends as potential indicators of watershed N-saturation and retention conditions, and how watershed N retention and losses vary over space and time. By synthesizing changes and modalities in watershed nitrogen loss patterns based on stream data from 2200 U.S. watersheds over a 50 years record, our work revealed two patterns of watershed N-retention and loss. One was a hysteresis pattern that reflects the integrated influence of hydrology, atmospheric inputs, land-use, stream temperature, elevation, and vegetation. The other pattern was a one-way transition to a new state. We found that regions with increasing atmospheric deposition and increasing vegetation health/biomass patterns have the highest N-retention capacity, become increasingly N-saturated over time, and are associated with the strongest declines in stream N exports—a pattern, that is, consistent across all land cover categories. We provide a conceptual model, validated at an unprecedented scale across the CONUS that links instream nitrogen signals to upstream mechanistic landscape processes. Our work can aid in the future interpretation of in-stream concentrations of DOC and DIN as indicators of watershed N-retention status and integrators of watershed hydrobiogeochemical processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Enhanced Reservoir Evaporation Losses From CMIP6‐Based Future Projections in the Contiguous United States

Abstract Enhanced reservoir evaporation has become an emerging concern regarding water loss, especially when compounded with the ever‐increasing water demand. In this study, we evaluated the evaporation rates and losses for 678 major reservoirs (representing nearly 90% of total storage capacity) in the Contiguous United States over historical baseline (1980–2019), near‐term (2020–2039), and mid‐term (2040–2059) future periods. The evaporation rate was estimated using the Lake Evaporation Model (LEM), an advanced lake evaporation model that addresses both heat storage and fetch effects, driven by multi‐ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects 6 (CMIP6) projections under the SSP585 emission scenario. The results project that the evaporation loss may increase by 2.5 × 10 7 m 3 /yr through the research period (1980–2059). Among all regions, the Rio Grande is projected to have the largest increasing rate in the near‐term and mid‐term future, with values of 7.11% of 10.25%, respectively. At the seasonal scale, the most significant increase in the evaporation rate is projected during the fall. The evaporation is projected to increase faster than the streamflow over many of the regions in the southwestern US during the summer/fall, suggesting that the shortage of water will be further exacerbated. The climate models contribute the most to the variance, as compared to the other components related to the projection of evaporation losses (e.g., hydrological model, downscaling method, and historical meteorological data set). These findings demonstrate the need to consider accelerated water loss through open water evaporation in long‐term water resources planning across various spatiotemporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Differentiating Between Simultaneous Loss Drivers in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: Multi‐Dimensional Phase Space Density Analysis

Abstract We analyzed the contribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave driven electron loss to a flux dropout event in September 2017. The evolution of electron phase space density (PSD) through the dropout showed the formation of a radially peaked PSD profile as electrons were lost at high L* , resembling distributions created by magnetopause shadowing. By comparing 2D Fokker Planck simulations of pitch angle diffusion to the observed change in PSD, we found that the μ and K of electron loss aligned with maximum scattering rates at dropout onset. We conclude that, during this dropout event, EMIC waves produced substantial electron loss. Because pitch angle diffusion occurred on closed drift paths near the last closed drift shell, no radial PSD minimum was observed. Therefore, the radial PSD gradients resembled solely magnetopause shadowing loss, even though the local pitch angle scattering produced electron losses of several orders of magnitude of the PSD.

Staples, F. A.↗