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At least 253 records · Page 14

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DOE OSTI2020

Chaos, Percolation and the Coronavirus Spread

The dynamics of the spreading of the COVID-19 virus has similar features to the turbulent flow, chaotic maps and other non-linear systems: a small seed grows exponentially and eventually saturates. Like in the percolation model, the virus is mostly dangerous if the probability of transmission (or the bond probability p in the percolation model) is high. This suggests a relation with the population density, ρ s , which must be higher than a certain value (ρ s > 1000 persons/km 2 ). A ‘seed’ implanted in such towns grows vigorously and affects nearby places at distance x. Thus, the spreading is governed by the ratio ρ = ρ s /x. Assuming a power law dependence τ of the number of positives to the virus N + from ρ, we find τ = 0.55, 0.75 and 0.96 for S.Korea, Italy and China respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distributed State Estimation Over Time-Varying Graphs: Exploiting the Age-of-Information

Here, we study the problem of designing a distributed observer for an LTI system over a time-varying communication graph. The limited existing work on this topic imposes various restrictions either on the observation model or on the sequence of communication graphs. In contrast, we propose a single-time-scale distributed observer that works under mild assumptions. Specifically, our communication model only requires strong-connectivity to be preserved over non-overlapping, contiguous intervals that are even allowed to grow unbounded over time. We show that under suitable conditions that bound the growth of such intervals, joint observability is sufficient to track the state of any discrete-time LTI system exponentially fast, at any desired rate. We also develop a variant of our algorithm that is provably robust to worst-case adversarial attacks, provided the sequence of graphs is sufficiently connected over time. The key to our approach is the notion of a "freshness-index" that keeps track of the age-of-information being diffused across the network. Such indices enable nodes to reject stale estimates of the state, and, in turn, contribute to stability of the error dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-time spin systems from lattice field theory

We construct a lattice field theory method for computing the real-time dynamics of spin systems in a thermal bath. This is done by building on previous work of Takano with Schwinger-Keldysh and functional differentiation techniques. We derive a Schwinger-Keldysh path integral for generic spin Hamiltonians, then demonstrate the method on a simple system. Our path integral has a sign problem, which generally requires exponential run time in the system size, but requires only linear storage. The latter may place this method at an advantage over exact diagonalization, which is exponential in both. Our path integral is amenable to contour deformations, a technique for reducing sign problems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Global System Reduction Order Modeling for Localized Feature Inclusion

The development of reduced-order models remains an active research area, despite advances in computational resources. Here we develop a novel order-reduction approach that is designed to incorporate isolated regions that contain, for example, nonlinearitites or accumulating damage. The approach is designed to use global modes of the overall system response, which are then naturally coupled to the response in the isolated region of interest. Two examples are provided to demonstrate both the accuracy and the computational efficiency of the proposed approach. The performance of this approach is compared to the exact response corresponding to a finite element simulation for the chosen problems. In addition, the accuracy and computational efficiency are shown relative to a standard Galerkin reduction based on the linear normal modes. It is found that the proposed reduction offer computational efficiency comparable to a Galerkin reduction, but more accurately represents the response of the system when both are compared to the finite element simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of the elliptic integrable non-linear system in IOTA using tracking of a single electron

Integrable nonlinear lattices that can be realized in practical accelerators are of great interest, as they offer the potential to support high-intensity beams via Landau damping of collective instabilities. One such system, based on an elliptic potential, has been extensively studied at the IOTA storage ring at Fermilab. The analysis of strongly nonlinear dynamics with multi-particle bunches is challenging due to the rapid decoherence of kicked beams. IOTA has the capability to track single electrons using linear multi-anode photomultiplier tubes for simultaneously measuring transverse coordinates and arrival times of synchrotron-radiation pulses. This technology enables the full reconstruction of turn-by-turn positions and momenta in all three planes for a single particle. Using this apparatus, we measured the dependence of small-amplitude tunes on the strength of the nonlinear magnet, as well as tunes dependence on oscillations amplitudes.

Romanov, A. [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of the Elliptic Integrable Non-Linear System in IOTA Using Tracking of a Single Electron

Romanov, Aleksandr Leonidovich [Fermilab] (ORCID:0↗

DOE OSTI2023

Co-Simulation Model for Optimal Wind-Hydro Coordination Using Wind Farm Control Dynamics

The growing share of Variable Renewable Energy sources (VRES) in power systems presents challenges for regula- tors, grid operators and energy producers. The VRES’ operation has limited flexibility in their operations, as they are highly dependent on ambient environments. To address these challenges, decision-makers must consider multiple objectives, among these are revenue, power system services and mechanical load on wind turbines. Coordinated operation of power plants and different wind farm control strategies are examples of measures that can benefit these objectives. This study proposes a Multi-Objective Linear Programming (MOLP) model to simulate the optimum operation of wind and hydropower plants that share limited transmission capacity. Further, wind farm control dynamics are included to obtain realistic output power and accumulated damage. From this, a case study based on a relevant location in Norway is presented to analyze the improved effect of wind- hydro coordination and wind farm control in achieving the objectives of accumulated wind turbine damage and total revenue of the hybrid power system. In addition, the study considers the potential advantages of adding a variable-speed pump to the hydropower plant. The results demonstrate that by considering multiple objectives in the optimization, one may achieve better overall performance of the objectives. By utilizing the flexibility of hydro storage, the decision maker may adjust to obtain the most desired outcome. Moreover, the added flexibility of utilizing a pump for hydro storage shows great improvements for the combined revenue of the power plants and reduced curtailment of the wind farm. However, less impact is observed from using a variable speed pump compared to a fixed speed pump.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modelica-based system modeling for studying control-related faults in chiller plants and boiler plants serving large office buildings

System modeling is critical when studying operation faults in chiller plants and boiler plants. However, current fault models have difficulties faithfully representing the operation of chiller plants and boiler plants under the effects of those faults, especially the control-related ones. In this study, we present a systematic method to develop high-fidelity models for approximating the behaviors of chiller plants and boiler plants under faulty conditions. Compared to existing ones, the resulting fault models have two advantages: first, they better characterize the dynamic patterns in the system operation. In those models, control architecture and control logic are faithfully implemented. Thus, they can be used to study control-related faults, such as incorrect staging control due to sensor bias and mistuned feedback control. Second, they are readily extensible and can support large-scale investigations to explore different faulty conditions/scenarios. Those models are established in a hierarchical structure while modules in each layer can be redeclared and parameterized at upper layers. In such a case, modifications to the models can be realized through model modifiers and the process can be easily streamlined with scripts. We applied the proposed models in a comprehensive fault impact evaluation of the 13 control-related faults of chiller and boiler plants. In this evaluation, the proposed plant model is coupled with the EnergyPlus thermal load model to study the impact of various faulty scenarios. Based on the evaluation results, we identified the faults that have the most significant impacts on the operation of the chiller and boiler plants, respectively. We also found that the relationship between the impacts of the studied faults and the severity level of the faults are highly non-linear

Huang, Sen↗

DOE OSTI2023

Graph-based quantum response theory and shadow Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics

Graph-based linear scaling electronic structure theory for quantum-mechanical molecular dynamics simulations [A. M. N. Niklasson et al., J. Chem. Phys. 144, 234101 (2016)] is adapted to the most recent shadow potential formulations of extended Lagrangian Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, including fractional molecular-orbital occupation numbers [A. M. N. Niklasson, J. Chem. Phys. 152, 104103 (2020) and A. M. N. Niklasson, Eur. Phys. J. B 94, 164 (2021)], which enables stable simulations of sensitive complex chemical systems with unsteady charge solutions. The proposed formulation includes a preconditioned Krylov subspace approximation for the integration of the extended electronic degrees of freedom, which requires quantum response calculations for electronic states with fractional occupation numbers. For the response calculations, we introduce a graph-based canonical quantum perturbation theory that can be performed with the same natural parallelism and linear scaling complexity as the graph-based electronic structure calculations for the unperturbed ground state. Further, the proposed techniques are particularly well-suited for semi-empirical electronic structure theory, and the methods are demonstrated using self-consistent charge density-functional tight-binding theory both for the acceleration of self-consistent field calculations and for quantum-mechanical molecular dynamics simulations. Graph-based techniques combined with the semi-empirical theory enable stable simulations of large, complex chemical systems, including tens-of-thousands of atoms.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Dynamic Behaviors in Converter- Dominated Power Systems via RMS and EMT Simulations: A Study of Hawaii’s NELHA Microgrid

The transition from conventional power systems to converter-based microgrids has significantly advanced sustainability, clean energy integration, and operational reliability. However, this paradigm shift introduces operational challenges due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources and the non-linear characteristics of power electronic loads, inducing voltage fluctuations and harmonic distortions that complicate voltage and frequency regulation. Accurate dynamic modeling is hypothesized to be critical for capturing such effects, enabling reliable simulation and control strategy development. This study introduces an innovative dynamic modeling framework for a real-world converter-based microgrid, utilizing both root mean square (RMS) and electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation methods. The microgrid was modeled in DIgSILENT PowerFactory, with simulations calibrated against high-resolution field measurements from SEL-735 power quality meters. Results show that RMS simulations effectively characterize steady-state dynamics, while EMT simulations are essential for capturing high-frequency transients and non-linear effects from photovoltaic inverters and variable frequency drives (VFDs). This complementary approach provides a comprehensive understanding of microgrid behavior, providing critical insights for improving simulation accuracy, advancing protection schemes, and improving resilience in future low-inertia power networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge: Confronting blind predictions for the linear and nonlinear dynamics of a thin-walled jointed structure with measurement results

The present article summarizes the submissions to the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge announced in 2021. The task was a blind prediction of the vibration behavior of a system comprising a thin plate clamped on two sides via bolted joints. Both geometric and frictional contact nonlinearities are expected to be relevant. Provided were the CAD models and technical drawings of all parts as well as assembly instructions. The main objective was to predict the frequency and damping ratio of the lowest-frequency mode as function of the amplitude. Many different prediction approaches were pursued, ranging from well-known methods to very recently developed ones. After the submission deadline, the system has been fabricated and tested. The aim of this article is to evaluate the current state of the art in modeling and vibration prediction, and to provide directions for future methodological advancements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Implementing Inertial Control for PMSG-WTG in Region 2 Using Virtual Synchronous Generator with Multiple Virtual Rotating Masses

With the increasing integration of renewable energy, the problems associated with a deteriorating grid frequency profile and potential power system instability have become more significant. In this paper, the inertial control algorithm using a virtual synchronous generator (VSG) is implemented on a Type 4 permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) wind turbine generator (WTG). The overall nonlinear dynamic model and its small-signal linearization of the PMSG-WTG using a VSG is established and comprehensively analyzed. Inevitably, the direct application of the VSG introduces a large inertia, which causes conflict between the fast variance of available wind power and inverter control with slow dynamics, particularly in Region 2 of the wind turbine. Aiming to address such issues, a VSG with multiple virtual rotating masses is proposed to improve the active power tracking performance as well as to boost the inertial control of a VSG. The inertial responses are verified in a modified 10-MVA IEEE 14-bus microgrid system. The assessment of the simulation results demonstrates the applicability of the VSG on renewable energy generation units.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Frequency-Nadir-Constrained Unit Commitment for Low-Inertia, High-IBR Island Power Systems [Slides]

The process of energy decarbonization in island power systems is accelerated due to the swift integration of inverter-based renewable energy resources (IBRs). The unique features of such systems, including rapid frequency changes resulting from potential generation outages or imbalances due to the unpredictability of renewable power, pose a significant challenge in maintaining the frequency nadir without external support. This paper presents a unit commitment (UC) model with data-driven frequency nadir constraints, including either frequency nadir or minimum inertia requirements, helping to limit frequency deviations after significant generator outages. The constraints are formulated using a linear regression model that takes advantage of real-world, year-long generation scheduling and dynamic simulation data. The efficacy of the proposed UC model is verified through a year-long simulation in an actual island power system using historical weather data. The alternative minimum inertia constraint, derived from actual system operation assumptions, is also evaluated. Findings demonstrate that the proposed frequency nadir constraint notably improves the system's frequency nadir under high photovoltaic (PV) penetration levels, albeit with a slight increase in generation costs, when compared to the alternative minimum inertia constraint.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

WeakIdent: Weak formulation for identifying differential equation using narrow-fit and trimming

Data-driven identification of differential equations is an interesting but challenging problem, especially when the given data are corrupted by noise. When the governing differential equation is a linear combination of various differential terms, the identification problem can be formulated as solving a linear system, with the feature matrix consisting of linear and nonlinear terms multiplied by a coefficient vector. This product is equal to the time derivative term, and thus generates dynamical behaviors. The goal is to identify the correct terms that form the equation to capture the dynamics of the given data. We propose a general and robust framework to recover differential equations using a weak formulation with two new mechanisms, narrow-fit and trimming, for both ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs and PDEs). The weak formulation facilitates an efficient and robust way to handle noise, and two new mechanisms, narrow-fit and trimming, improve the coefficient support and value recoveries respectively. For each sparsity level, Subspace Pursuit is utilized to find an initial set of support from the large dictionary. Then, we focus on highly dynamic regions (rows of the feature matrix), and error normalize the feature matrix in the narrow-fit step. The support is further updated via trimming the terms that contribute the least. Finally, the support set of features with the smallest Cross-Validation error is chosen as the result. A comprehensive set of numerical experiments are presented for both systems of ODEs and PDEs with various noise levels. The proposed method gives a robust recovery of the coefficients, and a significant denoising effect which can handle up to 100% noise-to-signal ratio for some equations. We compare the proposed method with several state-of-the-art algorithms for the recovery of differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital Real-Time Simulation and Power Quality Analysis of a Hydrogen-Generating Nuclear-Renewable Integrated Energy System

This paper investigates the challenges and solutions associated with integrating a hydrogen-generating nuclear-renewable integrated energy system (NR-IES) under a transactive energy framework. The proposed system directs excess nuclear power to hydrogen production during periods of low grid demand while utilizing renewables to maintain grid stability. Using digital real-time simulation (DRTS) in the Typhoon HIL 404 model, the dynamic interactions between nuclear power plants, electrolyzers, and power grids are analyzed to mitigate issues such as harmonic distortion, power quality degradation, and low power factor caused by large non-linear loads. A three-phase power conversion system is modeled using the Typhoon HIL 404 model and includes a generator, a variable load, an electrolyzer, and power filters. Active harmonic filters (AHFs) and hybrid active power filters (HAPFs) are implemented to address harmonic mitigation and reactive power compensation. The results reveal that the HAPF topology effectively balances cost efficiency and performance and significantly reduces active filter current requirements compared to AHF-only systems. During maximum electrolyzer operation at 4 MW, the grid frequency dropped below 59.3 Hz without filtering; however, the implementation of power filters successfully restored the frequency to 59.9 Hz, demonstrating its effectiveness in maintaining grid stability. Future work will focus on integrating a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework with real-time simulation and optimizing real-time power dispatch, thus enabling a scalable, efficient NR-IES for sustainable energy markets.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model-based predictive control of multi-stage air-source heat pumps integrated with phase change material-embedded ceilings

This paper presents a model-based predictive control strategy to optimize the operations of phase change material (PCM) ceiling panels coupled with a multi-stage air-source heat pump. A three-stage prototype heat pump unit has been built and tested in the laboratory, with the low and medium stages designed for space heating/cooling and the high compression stage dedicated to charging of the PCM energy storage. To facilitate optimal control of the integrated heat pump system, a mixed-integer linear programming formulation is derived through linearization of the heat pump model and a mixed-integer reformulation of the PCM dynamic governing equations. A predictive control strategy is synthesized based on the resultant control formulation and implemented in a receding horizon scheme that optimizes the PCM charging and the zone temperature schedules simultaneously to leverage both the passive (associated with building construction materials) and active (PCM) storage capacities of a building. The control strategy has been tested along with three benchmarking control scenarios using a co-simulation platform for a prototypical detached house in Atlanta, GA. In this study, test results showed that application of the proposed control strategy to the PCM-integrated heat pump could provide 27.1% electricity cost savings while a fine tuned rule-based control strategy could achieve cost savings of 20.4%, compared to a baseline case without PCM storage, under a time-of-use rate tariff.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distinct universality classes of diffusive transport from full counting statistics

The hydrodynamic transport of local conserved densities furnishes an effective coarse-grained description of the dynamics of a many-body quantum system. However, the full quantum dynamics contains much more structure beyond the simplified hydrodynamic description. Here we show that systems with the same hydrodynamics can nevertheless belong to distinct dynamical universality classes, as revealed by new classes of experimental observables accessible in synthetic quantum systems, which can, for instance, measure simultaneous site-resolved snapshots of all of the particles in a system. Specifically, we study the full counting statistics of spin transport, whose first moment is related to linear-response transport, but the higher moments go beyond. We present an analytic theory of the full counting statistics of spin transport in various integrable and nonintegrable anisotropic one-dimensional spin models, including the XXZ spin chain. We find that spin transport, while diffusive on average, is governed by a distinct non-Gaussian dynamical universality class in the models considered. We consider a setup in which the left and right half of the chain are initially created at different magnetization densities, and consider the probability distribution of the magnetization transferred between the two half-chains. We derive a closed-form expression for the probability distribution of the magnetization transfer, in terms of random walks on the half-line. We show that this distribution strongly violates the large-deviation form expected for diffusive chaotic systems, and explain the physical origin of this violation. Here, we discuss the crossovers that occur as the initial state is brought closer to global equilibrium. Our predictions can directly be tested in experiments using quantum gas microscopes or superconducting qubit arrays.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

From the Fire: A Deeper Look at the Phoenix Stream

We use 6 yr of data from the Dark Energy Survey to perform a detailed photometric characterization of the Phoenix stellar stream, a 15° long, thin, dynamically cold, low-metallicity stellar system in the Southern Hemisphere. We use natural splines, a nonparametric modeling technique, to simultaneously fit the stream track, width, and linear density. This updated stream model allows us to improve measurements of the heliocentric distance (17.4 ± 0.1 (stat.) ±0.8 (sys.) kpc) and distance gradient (−0.009 ± 0.006 kpc deg$^{−1}$) of Phoenix, which corresponds to a small change of 0.13 ± 0.09 kpc in heliocentric distance along the length of the stream. We measure linear intensity variations on degree scales, as well as deviations in the stream track on ∼2° scales, suggesting that the stream may have been disturbed during its formation and/or evolution. We recover three peaks and one gap in linear intensity along with fluctuations in the stream track. Compared to other thin streams, the Phoenix stream shows more fluctuations and, consequently, the study of Phoenix offers a unique perspective on gravitational perturbations of stellar streams. We discuss possible sources of perturbations to Phoenix, including baryonic structures in the Galaxy and dark matter subhalos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗